Drought 2020

[Sigmetnow]

New year, new decade.

In the US: a bit unusual to see California normal but the Pacific Northwest (short-term) dry.

[Sigmetnow]

Daniel Swain: "Well, it's official: most of California just experienced driest February on record. Locations like Ukiah, Sacramento, Redding, & San Francisco recorded no rain *at all* during a month at peak of the rainy season. Wildfire concerns are elevated this week. #CAwx #CAfire #CAwater”
https://mobile.twitter.com/weather_west/status/1234141876489347073
Image below.

[Tom_Mazanec]

That drought at Four Corners has been going on for a few years now.

[nanning]

Australia

New water mines in Gold Coast hinterland barred for a year amid concerns over bottling industry

Queensland government’s moratorium comes after dozens of bores supplying drinking water to Tamborine Mountain ran dry.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/mar/06/new-water-mines-in-gold-coast-hinterland-barred-for-a-year-amid-concerns-over-bottling-industry
  by Ben Smee


It [the study] noted that “philosophical questions around commercial sale of groundwater [are] very valid but beyond the scope of this report”.


Last year the Tamborine Mountain state school ran out of water, and the government had to truck bottles to the community. At the same time, water trucks were carrying local water in the opposite direction.

[kassy]

Philosophically that is stupid. 

[Alexander555]

Not just drought, dam construction also add to the problem. But mainly drought. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Commodities/Rice-prices-hit-6-year-high-as-Thailand-and-Vietnam-face-drought?

[kassy]

Could you edit out anything from the ? and the crap after that. The links work without that. The second part is just a FB tracker. See TheForum subforum for more on this. TIA!

[Bruce Steele]

We are experiencing some late season rains this year in Calif.  We usually don’t get much rain in March and when we do we call it a “ March Miracle “. Ten feet of snow fell in the Sierra ,mid March ,and we are going to get some more this week. April is late season rain and snow.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/new-round-of-storms-to-hit-california-western-us-next-week/703210

So we will get close to average rain this year which is a relief.

[TerryM]

^^
Wonderful to hear some good news!
Terry

[Alexander555]

Central Chili, rivers and lakes run dry. https://www.hln.be/nieuws/buitenland/ongeziene-droogte-in-chili-maakt-inwoners-kwetsbaarder~a48de83e/

[vox_mundi]

Climate-Driven Megadrought is Emerging in Western US, Study Says
https://phys.org/news/2020-04-climate-driven-megadrought-emerging-western.html



With the western United States and northern Mexico suffering an ever-lengthening string of dry years starting in 2000, scientists have been warning for some time that climate change may be pushing the region toward an extreme long-term drought worse than any in recorded history. A new study says the time has arrived: a megadrought as bad or worse than anything even from known prehistory is very likely in progress, and warming climate is playing a key role. The study, based on modern weather observations, 1,200 years of tree-ring data and dozens of climate models, appears this week in the leading journal Science.

... "We're no longer looking at projections, but at where we are now. We now have enough observations of current drought and tree-ring records of past drought to say that we're on the same trajectory as the worst prehistoric droughts."


Varying soil moisture in southwestern North America, 800-2018. The straight horizontal center line indicates average moisture; blue line at bottom shows 2000-2018 mean. Green bars indicate abnormally wet periods, pink ones abnormally dry. The fluctuating red moisture line is based on tree-ring data until it converts to blue at the start of modern instrumental observations.

Lamont climatologist Richard Seager was one of the first to predict, in a 2007 paper, that climate change might eventually push the region into a more arid climate during the 21st century; he speculated at the time that the process might already be underway. By 2015, when 11 of the past 14 years had seen drought, Benjamin Cook led a followup study projecting that warming climate would cause the catastrophic natural droughts of prehistory to be repeated by the latter 21st century. A 2016 study coauthored by several Lamont scientist reinforced those findings. Now, says Cook, it looks like they may have underestimated. "It's already happening," he said.

Tucked into the researchers' data: the 20th century was the wettest century in the entire 1200-year record. It was during that time that population boomed, and that has continued. "The 20th century gave us an overly optimistic view of how much water is potentially available," said Cook. "It goes to show that studies like this are not just about ancient history. They're about problems that are already here."

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/368/6488/314

[Freegrass]

So now there's gonna be a new dust bowl, AND a new depression in America? Sounds like history does repeat itself...

[vox_mundi]

"So Long, It's Been Good to Know Yuh" (originally titled "Dusty Old Dust"[1]) is a song by American folk musician Woody Guthrie first released in 1935, and part of his album Dust Bowl Ballads.[

The composition tells about the hard times that Americans experienced during the Great Depression, especially the "harsh weather and drought conditions" experienced by farm workers in the Western United States.[3] Guthrie himself had lived in the town of Pampa, Texas, and had witnessed the devastating Black Sunday dust storm of April 14, 1935.[1]

The repetitive chorus has been described as "a witty, black retort, utterly negative and apocalyptic": "We talked of the end of the world, and then/We'd sing a song an' then sing it again/We'd sit for an hour an' not say a word/And then these words would be heard:/So long, it's been good to know yuh".[6]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/So_Long,_It%27s_Been_Good_to_Know_Yuh

I've sung this song, but I'll sing it again,
Of the place that I lived on the wild windy plains,
In the month called April, county called Gray,
And here's what all of the people there say:

(Chorus)
So long, it's been good to know yuh;
So long, it's been good to know yuh;
So long, it's been good to know yuh.
This dusty old dust is a-gettin' my home,
And I got to be driftin' along.

A dust storm hit, an' it hit like thunder;
It dusted us over, an' it covered us under;
Blocked out the traffic an' blocked out the sun,
Straight for home all the people did run,
Singin',

... Chorus

We talked of the end of the world, and then
We'd sing a song an' then sing it again.
We'd sit for an hour an' not say a word,
And then these words would be heard:

... Chorus

Sweethearts sat in the dark and sparked,
They hugged and kissed in that dusty old dark.
They sighed and cried, hugged and kissed,
Instead of marriage, they talked like this:
"Honey,"

... Chorus

Now, the telephone rang, an' it jumped off the wall,
That was the preacher, a-makin' his call.
He said, "Kind friend, this may the end;
An' you got your last chance of salvation of sin!"

... Chorus

The churches was jammed, and the churches was packed,
An' that dusty old dust storm blowed so black.
Preacher could not read a word of his text,
An' he folded his specs, an' he took up collection,
Said, ...

Chorus

[TerryM]

^^
Thanks!
All I've ever remembered was the chorus. I'd never associated it with the dust bowl (or Woodie)


One disaster at a time is about as much as we an be expected to handle. With CV-19 nipping at our livelihood and our sanity, it's sometimes difficult to our shift focus to the environmental catastrophe that never missed a step waiting for the virus among us.


Stay Healthy
Terry

[vox_mundi]

So now there's gonna be a new dust bowl, AND a new depression in America? Sounds like history does repeat itself...

https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/films/dustbowl/

Plenty of good material for a remake of "The Grapes of Wrath"

or "The Wizard of Oz" ... The Wizard of Oz

[kassy]

Germany’s Most Important River Is Drying Out

Germany’s spring showers haven’t materialized this year, and that’s drying out Germany’s most important river, prompting concerns that key industrial goods might have trouble making it to their destination.Typically one of the wettest months, Europe’s biggest economy has received just 5% of its normal April rainfall so far, according to Germany’s federal weather service. It’s on course to be the driest month since records began in 1881.

In addition to yellowing vegetation that’s usually a lush green in this season, the dry spell has depressed water levels on the Rhine River, a conduit for barges delivering everything from steel to oil and coal to Germany’s factories. The river is now at its lowest level for April since 2011.“If we don’t get more normal rain in May, then we’re looking at another year of serious drought conditions,” said Andreas Friedrich of Germany’s DWD federal weather service.

...

October 2018 saw rivers fall to just a few centimeters at a chokepoint near the village of Kaub, disrupting flows of fuels and goods to and from Germany’s advanced manufacturing heartlands in the south. The impasse was severe enough to dent German economic growth and underline how even advanced economies are feeling the impact of climate change.Waters at the Kaub bottleneck have fallen to 1 metre 15 centimetres, less than half the average water levels for this time of year.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/germany-s-most-important-river-is-drying-out-1.1427200

[Tom_Mazanec]

Return Of The Dust Bowl? The “Megadrought” In The Southwest Is Really Starting To Escalate
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/return-of-the-dust-bowl-the-megadrought-in-the-southwest-is-really-starting-to-escalate

Much of the southwestern portion of the United States has been gripped by a drought that never seems to end, and there is a tremendous amount of concern that patterns that we witnessed back during the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s may be starting to repeat.  In a previous article, I discussed the extreme heat that we have been seeing in the region lately.  Phoenix has never had more days in a year when the high temperature has hit at least 115 degrees, and other southwestern cities have been smashing records as well.  At the same time, precipitation levels have been very low, and the combination of these two factors is starting to cause some major problems.

It's from Mike Snyder, but that doesn't mean he's exaggerating this.

[The Walrus]

Return Of The Dust Bowl? The “Megadrought” In The Southwest Is Really Starting To Escalate
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/return-of-the-dust-bowl-the-megadrought-in-the-southwest-is-really-starting-to-escalate

Much of the southwestern portion of the United States has been gripped by a drought that never seems to end, and there is a tremendous amount of concern that patterns that we witnessed back during the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s may be starting to repeat.  In a previous article, I discussed the extreme heat that we have been seeing in the region lately.  Phoenix has never had more days in a year when the high temperature has hit at least 115 degrees, and other southwestern cities have been smashing records as well.  At the same time, precipitation levels have been very low, and the combination of these two factors is starting to cause some major problems.

It's from Mike Snyder, but that doesn't mean he's exaggerating this.

Even if dust bowl conditions return, that is not what is meant be a megadrought.  Mega drought lasts decades to centuries,  so I would say he is exaggerating.

[kassy]

Check out #10 above.

[The Walrus]

Check out #10 above.

Yes, that post brings to light previous megadroughts.  The 12th and 13th centuries had two megadroughts.  One lasting 30 years, and then a second lasting a century.  The last megadrought was over 400 years ago, lasting another 30 years.  The current drought barely registers as a blip on the timeline.

[Tom_Mazanec]

The current drought barely registers as a blip on the timeline.

Say that when the current drought ends, Odobenus rosmarus.

[The Walrus]

The current drought barely registers as a blip on the timeline.

Say that when the current drought ends, Odobenus rosmarus.

If I am still alive when it ends, I will do so.

[vox_mundi]

Frequency of Combined Droughts and Heatwaves Has Substantially Increased In Western U.S. Over Past 50 Years
https://phys.org/news/2020-09-frequency-combined-droughts-heatwaves-substantially.html



Researchers from Canada, Iran and the U.S. have found that the frequency of combined droughts and heatwaves has increased substantially in the western U.S. over the past half-century. In their paper published in the journal Science Advances, the group describes their analysis of weather data going back to 1896 and what they learned from it.



Mohammad Reza Alizadeh et al. A century of observations reveals increasing likelihood of continental-scale compound dry-hot extremes, Science Advances (2020).
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/39/eaaz4571

[vox_mundi]

Newly Identified 'Landfalling Droughts' Originate Over Ocean
https://phys.org/news/2020-09-newly-landfalling-droughts-ocean.html

Researchers have identified a new kind of "landfalling drought" that can potentially be predicted before it impacts people and ecosystems on land. They found that these droughts, which form over the ocean and then migrate landward, can cause larger and drier conditions than droughts that occur solely over the land. Of all the droughts affecting land areas worldwide from 1981 to 2018, roughly one in six were landfalling droughts, according to the study published Sept. 21 in Water Resources Research.

... In order to pinpoint the large-scale landfalling droughts that originated over the ocean, the researchers used an object tracking algorithm to identify and follow clusters of moisture deficits all over the world, going back decades in time. They found that the landfalling droughts grew about three times as fast as land-only droughts, and usually took several months to reach a continent. ... "there is something about the droughts that start over the ocean that makes them more likely to turn into large, intense events."

The researchers analyzed the physical processes of landfalling droughts in western North America, where a high frequency of them occur. They found that droughts that make landfall in the region have been associated with certain atmospheric pressure patterns that reduce moisture, similar to the "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" pattern that was one of the primary causes of the 2012-2017 California Drought.

The authors state that further analyses may reveal similar or new explanations for the landfalling droughts that they identified in other areas of the world, including Chile, Argentina, New Zealand and Eastern Australia.

... "Because they usually take a number of months to migrate onto land, there is a potential that tracking moisture deficits over the ocean could provide advance warning to help protect against at least some of the most severe droughts."



Julio E. Herrera‐Estrada et al, Landfalling Droughts: Global Tracking of Moisture Deficits From the Oceans Onto Land, Water Resources Research (2020).
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2019WR026877

[morganism]

Colorado River water supply is predictable on multi-year timescales owning to long-term ocean memory"

https://phys.org/news/2020-10-colorado-river-long-term-ocean-memory.html

[The Walrus]

Cape Town has recovered from nearly running out of water two years ago.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-08/cape-town-dams-are-almost-full-a-far-cry-from-two-years-ago#:~:text=1%3A52-,Cape%20Town%20Dams%20Are%20Almost%20Full%2C%20A,Cry%20From%20Two%20Years%20Ago&text=Cape%20Town%20nearly%20ran%20out,African%20city%20said%20on%20Tuesday.

[vox_mundi]

Drought Depletes Paraguay River, a Country's Lifeline
https:/www.batimes.com.ar/news/amp/latin-america/drought-depletes-paraguay-river-a-countrys-lifeline.phtml


https://nasagrace.unl.edu/

The Paraguay River has reached its lowest level in half a century after months of extreme drought in the region, exposing the vulnerability of a landlocked economy.

Some 85 percent percent of Paraguay’s foreign trade is conducted via the river, which has been depleted because of a lack of rainfall in the Pantanal area of Mato Grosso state in Brazil. The river flows from that area and also runs through Bolivia and Argentina.

The fall in the water level has slowed down cargo vessel traffic on the Paraguay River, causing significant cost overruns for the transport of fuel, fertilizer, food and other imported goods. The crisis has also exposed the precariousness of Paraguay's access to drinking water.

Esteban dos Santos, president of the Paraguayan Shipowners’ Centre, said losses in Paraguay’s river transport sector have already reached US$250 million.

“What worries us the most is that the river is going down at a rate of three or four centimetres (1.2 to 1.6 inches) per day. The navigation situation is critical. In a week, no boat will be able to reach Asunción,” dos Santos said.

Paraguay could face bigger price increases and fuel and other shortages if the situation continues to deteriorate. Wildfires have also broken out in parts of the country because of the dry conditions

https://www.isciences.com/blog/2020/06/15/south-america-intense-water-deficits-on-the-paraguay-river

[Tom_Mazanec]

Exceptional drought persists in Southwest Colorado
https://the-journal.com/articles/195554

A persistent drought continues in the Four Corners, and residents should expect more of the same, weather officials report.