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Author Topic: 2020 ENSO  (Read 10668 times)

Freegrass

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #50 on: December 14, 2020, 09:12:50 PM »
La Nina all winter 95% probability Jan-Mar

I thought La Niña was already ending....
When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs or traditions, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again...

Bruce Steele

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #51 on: December 14, 2020, 09:34:11 PM »
The PDO index is still negative .

https://oceanview.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/tabledap/cciea_OC_PDO.graph

It is very dry in the Southwest and unfortunately La Niña and a negative PDO both portend more drought.
30,000 Western Monarchs , off subject but somehow related. They are just something that went from great numbers I remember well, to near ruin. Millions and millions of people have seen the same thing and yet are numb to it, or blind maybe.

https://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/patterns/pdo

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/10/climate/la-nina-southwest-drought.html
« Last Edit: December 14, 2020, 09:42:39 PM by Bruce Steele »

Rodius

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #52 on: December 14, 2020, 10:43:38 PM »
According to Australia, La Nina will last until about March.

Australia is looking for a wet summer because of it and Queensland is looking to get major flooding in the coming days to week.
The last time La Nina was hanging around the flooding was so bad Queensland almost went entirely underwater and there was so much flooding the ocean levels dropped lol.
Australia has some crazy shit extremes.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#overview-section=Sea-surface

Rodius

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #53 on: January 04, 2021, 07:29:09 AM »
ENZO according to the Australia Met Service

We are still in a mild La Nina but the outlook is back to neutral over the coming three months.

The index is sitting at about + 18


For more details visit http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=Outlook

gerontocrat

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Re: 2020 ENSO
« Reply #54 on: January 14, 2021, 06:03:52 PM »
Quote
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 January 2021

ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Advisory

 
Synopsis:  La Niña is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance during January-March), with a potential transition to ENSO-neutral during the spring 2021 (55% chance during April-June).

Below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) extend from the western to the eastern Pacific Ocean, and reflect the continuation of La Niña [Fig. 1]. Most of the Niño indices were relatively steady throughout the month (the latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was -1.1°C), with negative values strengthening to -1.2°C in the westernmost Niño-4 region [Fig. 2]. The subsurface temperature anomalies on the equator (averaged from 180°-100°W) remained negative [Fig. 3], but weakened slightly in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. The atmospheric circulation associated with La Niña strengthened over the tropical Pacific Ocean during the month. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the western to east-central tropical Pacific and upper-level wind anomalies were westerly across most of the tropical Pacific. Tropical convection was suppressed over the western and central Pacific and enhanced around the Philippines and parts of Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Both the Southern Oscillation and Equatorial Southern Oscillation strengthened during December. Overall, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system is consistent with the ongoing La Niña.

A majority of the models in the IRI/CPC plume predict La Niña to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus is in line with the models and suggests a transition to ENSO-neutral in the late spring 2021. However, the forecast uncertainty increases throughout the summer and fall, which is reflected by the lower probabilities (less than ~50%) for La Niña and ENSO-neutral. These low forecast probabilities beyond the spring are consistent with the spring predictability barrier, when model forecasts are historically less accurate than during other times of the year. In summary, La Niña is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020-21 (~95% chance for January-March), with a potential transition to ENSO-neutral during the spring 2021 (55% chance during April-June; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period).

La Niña is anticipated to affect climate across the United States during the upcoming months. The 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thursday January 21st.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 February 2021.[/size]
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