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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #50 on: March 01, 2020, 04:32:18 PM »
Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of around 412.4 ppm. I expect an annual increase of 2.25 ± 0.25 ppm.
I should better renounce the outlooks in future - I was wrong again  :(
This is my Sunday evening update of Mauna Loa CO2 levels:
Week beginning on February 23, 2020:     413.72 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 412.25 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:              388.72 ppm
Last updated: March 1, 2020

The annual increase is below 1.5 ppm. The daily values decreased slightly in comparison to last week, which explains the low annual increase. However, we are in the annual cycle of increasing CO2 content until May.

Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of 412.1 ppm. An annual increase of 2.1 ± 0.2 ppm seems to be likely.


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Pmt111500

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #51 on: March 01, 2020, 05:40:11 PM »
Interesting drop. Central European vegetation is starting it's spring growth and manufacturing in China is pretty down. I haven't followed the progress of northern hemisphere's spring elsewhere, might be additional reasons for this decrease in the speed of the rise.

grixm

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #52 on: March 01, 2020, 06:37:18 PM »
Interesting drop. Central European vegetation is starting it's spring growth and manufacturing in China is pretty down. I haven't followed the progress of northern hemisphere's spring elsewhere, might be additional reasons for this decrease in the speed of the rise.

The reason likely has nothing to do with that, it's just pure chance. It takes months for CO2 from the mainlands to mix and reach the measurement station on Hawaii.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #53 on: March 01, 2020, 08:53:06 PM »
I'd like to present you the last 365 days of Mauna Loa CO2:
First the daily and weekly values are never so bumpy and "chaotic" than in Feb and March (see green and violet circled areas). In 2019 the up and down was even worse than in 2020. Differences of 1, 2 or even 3 ppm are possible within days and weeks. This makes the calculation of "Last year next week" so difficult - even the value I use for this in my postings is sometimes wrong.
Second there is a small, but inherent decrease between mid-late February and mid March which belongs to the annual CO2 cycle. The increase late March into April finally makes March having a slightly higher average than February. In contrast to that there are strong increases Oct → Nov → Dec → Jan and Mar → Apr → May.

Therefore I agree with grixm's explanation of "pure chance" that the annual increase last week was much below average, and it can easily be converted into a "much higher than average annual increase" within the next weeks.

See attached picture.
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Hefaistos

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #54 on: March 02, 2020, 01:08:56 AM »
Thanks Stephan for your efforts with this noisy data!

My hypothesis, as expected, is that the small rise in atm. CO2 is due to the fact that we now have flat emissions of fossil fuels, and probably dropping in 2020 due to the corona virus. As it was China that drove the entire increase in emissions during 2019.
World excl. China is already on a negative FF emissions path.
Peak CO2 not later than 2030 is entirely possible.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-fossil-fuel-emissions-up-zero-point-six-per-cent-in-2019-due-to-china

wolfpack513

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #55 on: March 02, 2020, 09:31:39 PM »
I calculated 414.12 PPM for February 2020 at Mauna Loa using NOAA’s data.  That’s a growth rate of 2.37 ppm over February 2019. Nothing that unexpected if you follow the underlying cycle of growth rates.  The peak was October 2019 and we should see growth rates dropping off until the next bottom.

It could be all ENSO but I think there’s some sort of cycle and ENSO adds constructive or destructive interference. If we see an El Niño at the time of a typical peak you get constructive interference & the opposite if the ENSO phase and trough/peak don’t line up.  Take the bottom in 2014-2015, it was higher than the bottom in 2017-2018.  The weak El Niño in 2014 and into early 2015 was enough to elevate the trough: destructive interference.  That’s why the 2014-2015 trough was higher than 2018 bottom when you had La Niña and a trough: constructive interference.

FrostKing70

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #56 on: March 02, 2020, 11:31:52 PM »
Any thoughts on how the reduced emissions from the coronavirus will impact this number?  I recognize this is not the same gas as measured, but may be a proxy?

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146362/airborne-nitrogen-dioxide-plummets-over-china


Pmt111500

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #57 on: March 03, 2020, 11:38:36 AM »
Any thoughts on how the reduced emissions from the coronavirus will impact this number?
Mauna Loa is not directly downwind of Chinese factories, like said above, some mixing of air over the North Pacific has to happen before attempting to find out the effect, this is the start of spring in northern hemisphere so that should be somehow substracted off the regular curve.

rboyd

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #58 on: March 05, 2020, 06:45:55 PM »
Annual Global Increase In CO2 Above 3ppm First Time Ever in 2019 !

NOAA released its updated numbers for the annual 2019 increase in global atmospheric CO2, after getting the December numbers in (2 more updates for Jan and Feb 2020 before the final number is given) - and its 3.08ppm! Thats with no El Nino present, the highest number ever (in 2015 it was 2.97ppm).

NOAA also released the final Mauna Loa number and its 2.47ppm, but thats just specific to Mauna Loa. The 3.08ppm number is a global number.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gl_gr.html

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/gr.html


oren

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #59 on: March 05, 2020, 10:28:01 PM »
Wow!

Bruce Steele

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #60 on: March 06, 2020, 12:33:51 AM »
Damn , we gotta get off that crack before it kills us .

AbruptSLR

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #61 on: March 06, 2020, 12:57:23 AM »
Damn , we gotta get off that crack before it kills us .

Bruce,

In the attached image of NOAA's Global Daily Atmospheric CO2 concentrations thru March 5, 2020, it looks to me like the readings from Barrow are trending upward this year to date.  I hope that this is a natural fluctuation as if it is a feedback trend for permafrost degradation, then we should have gotten off our collective fossil fuel/crack addiction yesterday.

Best,
ASLR
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #62 on: March 06, 2020, 07:53:29 PM »
ASLR,
I am disappointed - not because of your posting, of course.
None of the lines, values and trends are linear. They all are slightly accelerating - even in a non El Niño year like 2019/20!
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AbruptSLR

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #63 on: March 06, 2020, 08:15:46 PM »
ASLR,
I am disappointed - not because of your posting, of course.
None of the lines, values and trends are linear. They all are slightly accelerating - even in a non El Niño year like 2019/20!

Stephan,
Not to add too much to your disappointment, but the attached image of Atmospheric CO2 concentrations at the South Pole from 2010 thru March 6, 2020; shows that 2020 (without any El Nino event) is the first year on the record where the daily CO2 concentration from January 1 to March 6, has not dropped below the trend line.  This means that atmospheric CO2 concentrations are currently accelerating even at the South Pole.
ASLR
« Last Edit: March 06, 2020, 08:20:48 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #64 on: March 08, 2020, 05:55:09 PM »
Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of 412.1 ppm. An annual increase of 2.1 ± 0.2 ppm seems to be likely.
The Sunday evening update of Mauna Loa CO2 is ready to be posted:

Week beginning on March 1, 2020:     413.87 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           411.91 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:        391.38 ppm
Last updated: March 8, 2020

This week the annual increase was in the predicted range.
Apart from a massive spike today the intra-day variabilities were small, and thus no value had to be excluded. The annual increase 2019 → 2020 was lower than the average annual increase over the last ten years.

Outlook:
(repeated from last week) Last year next week had an average of 412.1 ppm. An annual increase of 2.1 ± 0.2 ppm seems to be likely.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #65 on: March 15, 2020, 06:11:02 PM »
My Sunday evening posting about the Mauna Loa CO2 concentration is ready.

Week beginning on March 8, 2020:     414.11 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           412.57 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       391.27 ppm
Last updated: March 15, 2020

The annual increase is below the range I thought it would be last week. Six out of seven days had "valid" values, with only small intra-day variations.

Outlook:
Next week last year had an average of 411.8 ppm. An annual increase of 2.2 ± 0.25 ppm is what I expect.
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GeoffBeacon

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #66 on: March 18, 2020, 07:37:00 AM »
Coronavirus and atmospheric concentrations of CO2

Quote
Scripps Oceanography geochemist Ralph Keeling said fossil fuel use would have to decline by about 10 percent around the world and would need to be sustained for a year to show up clearly in carbon dioxide levels.

Quote
History has shown that carbon dioxide levels typically resume their climb quickly as normal economic activity rebounds. If there is any benefit of the coronavirus event in terms of slowing the pace of climate change, it could be the changing of people’s travel and work habits in ways that lead to sustained reductions in fossil fuel use. Only those kinds of long-term systemic reductions will change the trajectory of carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, Keeling said.

What does it take for the coronavirus (or other major economic events) to affect global carbon dioxide readings?

-----

However, UK emissions of CO2 have remained lower after 2007/2008 crash.


UK's carbon footprint.
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #67 on: March 22, 2020, 10:10:54 PM »
Outlook:
(repeated from last week) Last year next week had an average of 412.1 ppm. An annual increase of 2.1 ± 0.2 ppm seems to be likely.
My sunday evening Mauna Loa CO2 posting is now ready:

Week beginning on March 15, 2020:     414.28 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             411.77 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:          391.23 ppm
Last updated: March 22, 2020

The difficulty in my "predictions" is not a good guess of the average value this week, but a poor guess about the average value last year. The values have had such a big inter-day variability between Jan and March 2019, that it is almost impossible to find the correct average. Anyway, the annual increase of 2.5 ppm is higher than in the last weeks. But it should not be over-interpreted, because of the high fluctuations last year.

Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at around 411.3 ppm, therefore an increase of 2.75 ± 0.25 seems to be likely.
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kassy

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #68 on: March 29, 2020, 01:38:42 PM »
Ralph Keeling estimates that global fossil fuel use would have to decline by 10% for a full year to clearly impact CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere

...

But there was a long way from reduced use of fossil fuels to a crisis that would affect carbon dioxide concentrations in the global atmosphere.

Keeling estimated that global fossil fuel use would have to decline by 10% for a full year to show up in carbon dioxide concentrations. Even then, it would be a difference of only about 0.5 parts per million.

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/03/26/coronavirus-hawaii-scientists-seek-signs-economic-slowdown-air/
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #69 on: March 29, 2020, 05:38:12 PM »
Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at around 411.3 ppm, therefore an increase of 2.75 ± 0.25 seems to be likely.
Surprise Surprise on Sunday evening.

Week beginning on March 22, 2020:     415.52 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             411.24 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:         390.77 ppm
Last updated: March 29, 2020

One of the highest annual increases I ever had to write about. This time the guess about last year was almost right, but after a stop in the beginning of this week (2-3 days) the recordings started again at around 415 ppm and increased ever since.

Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of about 412.2 ppm. An annual increase of 3.2 ± 0.3 ppm shall be expected.
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blumenkraft

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #70 on: March 29, 2020, 05:41:41 PM »
Well, so much to the 'is it lowering the CO2' question...

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #71 on: March 29, 2020, 09:03:02 PM »
I think it is far too early to talk about a CoViD19 effect on Mauna Loa CO2 at this moment.
Two effects came into play last week:
1. The average one year ago was 0.5 ppm lower than the week before
2. The average this week has stopped for two days and re-started with a higher value, in effect 1.25 ppm higher than the week before.
Adding up 0.5+1.25 = 1.75, which is the additional value on the annual increase of 2.5 ppm from one week ago. I think it will normalize soon.
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wolfpack513

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #72 on: March 30, 2020, 01:14:45 PM »
Yea I feel like we've beat this drum a lot -- these initial weeks, months are way too early to decipher any Coronavirus impacts on CO2(a well mixed gas).  Look how noisy the data is the first 3 months of both 2019 & 2020 at Mauna Loa.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #73 on: March 30, 2020, 09:03:57 PM »
Thank you wolfpack for this posting and the impressive graph.
I wonder why just the first three months of a year are so horribly noisy. Was it like that already years/decades ago?
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wolfpack513

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #74 on: April 03, 2020, 01:32:51 AM »
I calculated 414.50 ppm for March 2020 using NOAA Mauna Loa data. Nothing out of the ordinary — growth rate of 2.53 ppm over March 2019.  People will likely blame the growth rate drop the next 6+ months on coronavirus but we’re now post peak in the cycle.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #75 on: April 05, 2020, 09:10:09 PM »
Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of about 412.2 ppm. An annual increase of 3.2 ± 0.3 ppm shall be expected.
The Sunday evening report on Mauna Loa CO2 is ready to go:
Week beginning on March 29, 2020:     415.74 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             412.39 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:          391.47 ppm
Last updated: April 5, 2020

This time I got it almost right. No stop of the acceleration of CO2 so far. This could also bring the soon to be published annual increase of March close to the 3 ppm range.
Apart from Friday very stable values with almost no intra-day variations.

Outlook:
The second week of April 2019 had an average slightly above 413 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of 3.25 ± 0.25 ppm is very likely.
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #76 on: April 06, 2020, 09:36:58 PM »
On the 6th of each month NOAA presents the monthly average for the gases they monitor. The values for CO2 are:
March 2020:       414.50 ppm
March 2019:       411.97 ppm
Last updated: April 6, 2020

The annual increase is 2.53 ppm, less than I expected yesterday.
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grixm

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #77 on: April 09, 2020, 10:37:52 PM »
New daily record value: 416.96 ppm for April 8th


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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #80 on: April 12, 2020, 05:38:02 PM »
Outlook:
The second week of April 2019 had an average slightly above 413 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of 3.25 ± 0.25 ppm is very likely.
My sunday evening Mauna Loa CO2 posting is ready.

Week beginning on April 5, 2020:     416.45 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:         412.67 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:      391.12 ppm
Last updated: April 12, 2020

Due to a very high level on Wednesday and Thursday (417.85, the highest value ever measured so far, and weekly average lower than I had estimated) the annual increase is higher than I had expected last Sunday. No CoViD19 effect visible. This brings me to my

Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at around 413.7 ppm. I expect a slight increase above today's value which fianlly results in an annual increase of about 3 ± 0.3 ppm.
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oren

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #81 on: April 12, 2020, 07:04:31 PM »
Thank you Stephan for these weekly updates. May I ask that you add the difference from last year to your report? I know it's easily calculated but I still think it would be useful.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #82 on: April 12, 2020, 08:44:33 PM »
Yes, oren, I can and I hope I will remember that next Sunday evening. But I do only have the monthly averages at hand, which would be sufficient IMO.
The annual increase March 2018 to March 2019 was 2.56 ppm, a tiny bit higher than March 2019 → March 2020 (2.53 ppm increase)
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oren

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #83 on: April 12, 2020, 10:43:58 PM »
Quote
Week beginning on April 5, 2020:     416.45 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:         412.67 ppm
I mean the difference between these two numbers. And I think it would be nice to do so for all your weekly reports.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #84 on: April 12, 2020, 11:10:41 PM »
This means I have to go back to my postings one year ago.
I think I can manage this, but I am not sure if I had made a regular posting every single week.
This is what I found from a posting in April 2019:
Week beginning on April 7, 2019:     413.13 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:       409.46 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     389.50 ppm
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oren

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #85 on: April 13, 2020, 02:56:09 AM »
I am sorry to cause confusion here Stephan. I mean something very simple that does not require going back to your previous posts.
Every week your make a prediction for next week's annual increase. And every week you refer to your previous prediction and say whether you were high or low. But you don't post explicitly what the resulting annual increase was. Anyone can calculate the annual increase from your numbers by subtracting your second number from your first number, but I think it would be helpful for readers to post that number explicitly.

Here is an example of your last post and what I suggest to add to it (bolded):
Feel free to take up my suggestion or ignore it... I didn't mean to burden the thread with repeated comments.


Outlook:
The second week of April 2019 had an average slightly above 413 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of 3.25 ± 0.25 ppm is very likely.
My sunday evening Mauna Loa CO2 posting is ready.

Week beginning on April 5, 2020:     416.45 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:         412.67 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:      391.12 ppm
Last updated: April 12, 2020
Annual increase from 1 year ago:   3.78 ppm

Due to a very high level on Wednesday and Thursday (417.85, the highest value ever measured so far, and weekly average lower than I had estimated) the annual increase is higher than I had expected last Sunday. No CoViD19 effect visible. This brings me to my

Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at around 413.7 ppm. I expect a slight increase above today's value which fianlly results in an annual increase of about 3 ± 0.3 ppm.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #86 on: April 13, 2020, 07:56:41 AM »
OK I understand now what you mean. I will do so in the future.  :)
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #87 on: April 19, 2020, 07:10:50 PM »
Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at around 413.7 ppm. I expect a slight increase above today's value which fianlly results in an annual increase of about 3 ± 0.3 ppm.
It's Sunday evening and the weekly update on Mauna Loa CO2 levels is ready.
Week beginning on April 12, 2020:     416.27 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           413.63 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       392.85 ppm
Last updated: April 19, 2020

This is an increase of 2.64 ppm. This week had a lot of intra-day and inter-day variations, including the second highest ever recorded daily value on April 16 (417.08 ppm). Nevertheless, all days had valid averages.

Outlook:
Last year's next week averaged at ca. 413.8 ppm. If I extrapolate the actual trend, an annual increase of 2.9 ppm ± 0.3 is what I expect.

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TerryM

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #88 on: April 19, 2020, 07:38:18 PM »
Thanks Stephan!


& I do like the new format. ;)
Terry

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #89 on: April 20, 2020, 03:59:02 AM »
Thank you for the updates Stephan.
Just a small thing I noticed: 2.64 ppm is not in the range of 3 ± 0.3 ppm.
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #90 on: April 24, 2020, 10:12:10 PM »
Hi nanning,
that is correct - but it is not too far off like I was in the weeks before.
I always try to extrapolate the latest trend of the last week into the next week, which does not always work smoothly, because there are some jumps between the days. And there is that uncertainty deriving from last year's extreme inter-day variations which make an exact assumption of the CO2 concentration of 52 weeks ago quite difficult.
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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #91 on: April 24, 2020, 11:34:01 PM »
For a couple of years, I've been looking at the convergence of the date 4.20.20. with 420 ppm.

We missed by a little. But still I commemorated the 420 holiday appropriately.   8)


Bruce Steele

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #92 on: April 24, 2020, 11:43:13 PM »
Thanks for the reminder !  8)

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #93 on: April 26, 2020, 09:03:40 PM »
Outlook:
Last year's next week averaged at ca. 413.8 ppm. If I extrapolate the actual trend, an annual increase of 2.9 ppm ± 0.3 is what I expect.

It is Sunday evening and time to inform the forum about the actual Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on April 19, 2020:     415.88 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           413.71 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:        393.25 ppm
Last updated: April 26, 2020

Due to a drop last Tuesday the CO2 concentration is lower than I had expected last Sunday. The annual increase now is 2.17 ppm, slightly below the averaged increase of the last ten years (415.88-393.25)/10 = 2.26 ppm.

Outlook: The next week of last year had an average of ca. 414.3 ppm. The actual values projected into the next week would give an annual increase of only about 1.7 ± 0.3 ppm.

In addition, NOAA presents a short information about the current lockdown caused by CoViD-19 in many countries and its influence on CO2 levels:

Can we see a change in the CO2 record because of COVID-19?
There have been many inquiries whether we can see in our CO2 measurements at Mauna Loa and elsewhere the slowdown in CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. That drop in emissions needs to be large enough to stand out from natural CO2 variability caused by how plants and soils respond to seasonal and annual variations of temperature, humidity, soil moisture, etc. These natural variations are large, and so far the "missing" emissions do not stand out, but we may see them as the year progresses.
Here is an example: If emissions are lower by 25%, then we would expect the monthly mean CO2 for March at Mauna Loa to be lower by about 0.2 ppm. When we look at many years of the difference between February and March we expect March to be higher by 0.74 ppm, but the year-to-year variability (one standard deviation) of the difference is 0.40 ppm. This year the difference is 0.40 ppm, or 0.33 below average, but last year it was 0.52 ppm below average.

Most of the emissions come from urban areas, so that it may be easier to see the effect downwind of cities, although also in that case they need to stand out from natural variations. Only measurements of carbon-14 in CO2 would enable us to cleanly separate fossil sources of CO2 from ecosystem sources and sinks regardless of how variable the latter are.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Phoenix

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #94 on: May 03, 2020, 04:18:30 AM »
Daily CO2 at Mauna Loa was 418.03 today. Is that a daily record?

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/monthly.html

Pmt111500

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #95 on: May 03, 2020, 05:24:43 AM »
It'll be interesting to see how much the pandemic effects this one. And the global value. Anyway it shouldn't be seen until late summer, as the annual curve mostly hides the human effect. I don't remember it properly anymore but when I looked into these figures it took something like two months to filter out some of the natural variation. So in my opinion it'll be at least early July when some rather reliable results of the effect of lockdowns are seen.

Of course there likely already are some local effects but how to catch them on the numbers round the globe? Two months for Global effects I say, maybe the observations included in the analysis could start from the period of starts of the wider lockdowns (Germany, France, Britain, India, parts of the Democratic States of America etc. So maybe already in June.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #96 on: May 03, 2020, 07:42:39 PM »
Outlook: The next week of last year had an average of ca. 414.3 ppm. The actual values projected into the next week would give an annual increase of only about 1.7 ± 0.3 ppm.
Sunday evening - time for the weekly Mauna Loa CO2 average.

Week beginning on April 19, 2020:     415.88 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           413.71 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       393.25 ppm
Last updated: May 2, 2020


The annual increase of 2.17 ppm is a little bit higher than I had expected last Sunday and at the same level than last week. This value is also slightly lower than the 10 years average.
This week saw a change of the trend. Until Apr 28 the values dropped day by day, after April 29 the climbed rapidly. As phoenix posted today, it was the highest ever measured daily average at Mauna Loa.

Outlook:
The first week of May 2019 averaged at 414.3 ppm. I guess the actual peak will flatten out. We should expect an annual increase of 2.75 ± 0.25 ppm.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

bosbas

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #97 on: May 03, 2020, 10:20:20 PM »
Stephan, the data has not been updated for the current week; your numbers are identical to last weeks post. We have to wait for the figures for the week starting April 26th.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #98 on: May 04, 2020, 10:50:34 PM »
bosbas,
thank you for this comment. I really didn't realize that the data was more than one week old - relying only on the updated date (May 2, 2020) is not enough ???.
Nevertheless, here are the actual values:

Week beginning on April 26, 2020:     416.82 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             414.45 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     393.18 ppm
Last updated: May 4, 2020

The annual increase of 2.37 ppm is a bit higher than last week, and very close to the average of the last 10 years (2.366 ppm).

May 3 saw a new daily record (418.12 ppm) since measurements started in 1958. A flattening of this peak should nevertheless be expected, therefore I stay with my

Outlook:
The first week of May 2019 averaged at 414.3 ppm. I guess the actual peak will flatten out. We should expect an annual increase of 2.75 ± 0.25 ppm.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

nanning

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #99 on: May 05, 2020, 04:40:44 AM »
Hi Stephan,

The error margins of your expectations are too small because often the next weeks' value doesn't fall in that range. I wouldn't mind if you would leave out the expectation altogether but others seem much into short-term guesses and forecasts and bets. But I like the weekly data!
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