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KiwiGriff

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #150 on: June 20, 2020, 10:56:59 PM »
Less acceleration is not equal to no acceleration .
Quote
After a rapid increase in global emissions of around 3% per year between 2000 and 2013, emissions only grew by 0.4% per year between 2013 and 2016. This was reversed over the last two years, with emissions growing by 1.6% in 2017 and expected to grow in 2018 by 2.7% (with an uncertainty range of between 1.8% and 3.7%).
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-fossil-fuel-emissions-in-2018-increasing-at-fastest-rate-for-seven-years
As long as human CO2 emissions continue to increase by a positive percentage  per year the keeling curve  must continue to follow a curve.
We will see a fall in emissions due to Covid just as happened after the GFC .
This Blip is not going to have a long term effect on our trajectory.

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Hefaistos

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #151 on: June 21, 2020, 04:23:08 AM »
1. Clearly, we are not having exponential growth anymore, we're on a linear growth path.
I do not agree. The rates are slightly increasing. The later you look the steeper is the slope.

I averaged 100-month increase rates of Mauna Loa CO2:

1959-1967: + 0.77 ppm/year
1967-1975: + 1.10 ppm/year
1975-1984: + 1.50 ppm/year
1984-1992: + 1.52 ppm/year
1992-2000: + 1.59 ppm/year
2000-2009: + 1.99 ppm/year
2009-2017: + 2.34 ppm/year
2012-2020: + 2.48 ppm/year

These data are not compatible with "linear growth path".

See also the annual increase (raw data) in the attached graph. y-axis: increase in ppm/year

True, but I was looking at Wolfie's detrended /ENSO scrubbed data, and they do show that we have an almost constant growth rate:
2011-2018  2.39
2013-2020  2.40

This would be significant, if correct :)

After all, we do expect CO2 to grow exponentially if temperatures are to rise linearly, as there is a logarithmic relationship between radiative forcing (which is directly proportional to the change in surface temperature at equilibrium) and the atmospheric CO2 increase.
This logarithmic relationship means that each doubling of atmospheric CO2 will cause the same amount of warming at the Earth's surface.
Thus, a linear increase in CO2 means we will have the inverse relationship. In the graph, temperatures will increase, but with decreasing amounts. (the green curve instead of the black one)
« Last Edit: June 21, 2020, 08:14:41 AM by Hefaistos »

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #152 on: June 21, 2020, 08:36:10 AM »
So, let's widen our attention to the radiative forcing increase since 1980
(using the "NOAA gases" CO2, CH4, N2O and SF6).
The increase in radiative forcing, using 100-months averages were:
1980-1988: + 0.0319 W/m² per year
1986-1995: + 0.0271 W/m² per year
1995-2003: + 0.0309 W/m² per year
2003-2011: + 0.0321 W/m² per year
2011-2019: + 0.0388 W/m² per year.

All these values include the square-root relation between concentration and radiative forcing that you correctly mentioned.

I do not see a flattening, but, in contrast, a steady increase of the rates. This is equivalent to an acceleration.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2020, 09:14:05 AM by Stephan »
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oren

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #153 on: June 21, 2020, 02:08:03 PM »
Thank you Stephan for dispelling wrong information.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #154 on: June 21, 2020, 02:25:41 PM »
But at first it dropped. Why is that?
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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #155 on: June 21, 2020, 04:36:05 PM »
helfaistos
2011-2018
2013-2020
That is a 5 year overlap of a 7 year period for the first and 6 1/2 year period on the second. Most data is going to have a similar growth rate when you pick data like that.

kassy

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #156 on: June 21, 2020, 06:22:25 PM »
But at first it dropped. Why is that?

Collapse of the Soviet Union and their allies.
Future looked so bright when the wall fell (no more cold war!) and this was a bonus. And then we went BAU for dollars or something.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #157 on: June 21, 2020, 07:14:12 PM »
Outlook:
Next week last year had an average value of 414.1 ppm. Extrapolating the actual trend into the next week I expect an annual increase of about 2.2 ppm.

Let's go back to the actual data. It is Sunday evening here in Germany and the latest Mauna Loa CO2 values are available.

Week beginning on June 14, 2020:     416.42 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:          413.77 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       391.79 ppm
Last updated: June 21, 2020

The annual increase was 2.65 ppm, slightly higher than the 10 year average of 2.46 ppm.
Since June 14 the intra-day variations were large, since June 19 no daily averages were possible.
Therefore it is too speculative to give any useful outlook.
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bluice

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #158 on: June 21, 2020, 07:48:25 PM »
But at first it dropped. Why is that?

Collapse of the Soviet Union and their allies.
Future looked so bright when the wall fell (no more cold war!) and this was a bonus. And then we went BAU for dollars or something.
Yep. In an alternate history we could have spent the peace dividend to combat climate change. This was definitely on the table in the early nineties. But instead we went after Big Oil and cheap consumer goods from emerging China.

jens

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #159 on: June 22, 2020, 08:26:12 AM »
I fully expect the economic growth to slow down from now onwards and go into permanent recession, as the world situation is already so bad that capitalists simply can't keep the system running in the old ways. But I wonder whether despite that the rising CO2 levels won't be slowing down, because whatever will be missing from economic CO2 output, would be replaced by already activated climate tipping points?

kassy

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #160 on: June 22, 2020, 09:58:11 AM »
Discussions more general the Mauna Loa CO2 can be had in this thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2994.0.html

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

kassy

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #161 on: June 24, 2020, 01:18:12 PM »
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #162 on: June 28, 2020, 04:45:18 PM »
It is Sunday evening and I'd like to post the latest weekly average of Mauna Loa CO2.

Week beginning on June 21, 2020:     416.05 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           413.50 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       391.44 ppm
Last updated: June 28, 2020

The annual increase of 2.55 ppm is very close to the 10 year average (2.56 ppm/a). The values have slightly decreased during this week. In the last days the intra-day variability (which had been extreme end of second last week) has come down to average values.

Outlook:
Last year's next week had an average of about 413.3 ppm. Therefore the annual increase should be around 2.5 ppm. The week after that a rapid decrease towards the seasonal minimum in October begins.
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #163 on: July 05, 2020, 07:56:43 PM »
Outlook:
Last year's next week had an average of about 413.3 ppm. Therefore the annual increase should be around 2.5 ppm. The week after that a rapid decrease towards the seasonal minimum in October begins.
Sunday evening - time for an update of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.
Week beginning on June 28, 2020:     415.43 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           413.39 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       391.14 ppm
Last updated: July 5, 2020

The annual increase is now at 2.05 ppm. The 10-year average annual increase is 2.43 ppm. The daily values decreased smoothly and remarkably stable without too many fluctuations.

Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at 412.1 ppm, a big drop compared to the week before. When this cyclic drop starts this week, the annual increase stays slightly above 2 ppm. When the daily changes of next week follow this week's path, we will end up with an annual increase close to 3 ppm.
Anything seems to be possible...
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #164 on: July 06, 2020, 09:20:50 PM »
It is the sixth of the new month. Therefore the monthly averages of the "NOAA gases" are available. Here is the value of CO2:

June 2020:       416.39 ppm
June 2019:       413.93 ppm
Last updated: July 6, 2020

This is an annual increase of 2.46 ppm. This increase is just at the long-term linear trend line [using values from 1959-2020] of increasing rates (calculated for June the annual increase should be at 2.45 ppm).

I set an index = 100 for the 1980 average [338.75 ppm]. June 2020 is at 122.9 compared to that index. This index value is higher than that of CH4 and N2O (see values in the individual threads).
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wolfpack513

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #165 on: July 07, 2020, 10:15:46 AM »
As Stephan mentioned, nothing out of the ordinary in June 2020's growth rate of 2.46 ppm.

With the 5-month lag, June 2020 lines up well well with January's ENSO level.

Pmt111500

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #166 on: July 07, 2020, 11:05:18 AM »
is it so, that effects of CoViD-19 induced diminishing and cessation of human activities could then be seen in the numbers for next month? I've been assuming the plants react to the CO2 amounts in spring and attempt to take as much advantage they can from higher numbers. This could then be seen in late season growth amounts.
Cooling the outside by heat pump.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #167 on: July 07, 2020, 08:50:40 PM »
I invite you to read NOAA's statement about this "Most Frequently Asked Question" in these days:
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/covid2.html
Short summary:
The lockdown's effect on CO2 emissions is too small and too short-lived (many countries including most of Europe have already re-turned into a state close to before the lockdown). The "missing" CO2 is too little to be recognizeable in the natural fluctuation. And it is too early to be statistifically significant. Maybe next year we can draw valid conclusions from the effect of CoViD-19 on atmospheric CO2.
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wolfpack513

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #168 on: July 08, 2020, 02:17:46 PM »
Yea too small to be seen.  I removed the anthropogenic trend in my chart above(*ENSO influence remains).  Inter-annual concentration growth variability, largely ENSO driven is 1 to 2 magnitudes higher than year-over-year 5 to 8% global emissions drop. 

Look at the growth variability from 2016 to 2018: about 2 ppm.  The drop in emissions and resulting impact on concentration and growth rates will be nearly undetectable without sophisticated filters/regression analysis.  You have to look at decades of data to tease out anthropogenic effects on concentration.  Don't confuse emissions & concentration.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #169 on: July 12, 2020, 06:24:09 PM »
Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at 412.1 ppm, a big drop compared to the week before. When this cyclic drop starts this week, the annual increase stays slightly above 2 ppm. When the daily changes of next week follow this week's path, we will end up with an annual increase close to 3 ppm.
Anything seems to be possible...

It is Sunday evening - time for an update of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on July 5, 2020:     415.24 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:        412.12 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     390.39 ppm
Last updated: July 12, 2020

The cyclic drop of CO2 has not started yet, therefore the annual increase is 3.12 ppm. The 10-year annual increase is 2.48 ppm. At the moment there is no sign for a start of this drop.

Therefore the Outlook remains very "unstable". Last year next week had an average of 412.1 ppm. When the actual values do not change significantly during the next week an annual increase of 3.3 ppm seems to be possible. When the cyclic drop will finally start next week, then this annual increase will be (much) lower than that.
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #170 on: July 19, 2020, 06:35:00 PM »
Therefore the Outlook remains very "unstable". Last year next week had an average of 412.1 ppm. When the actual values do not change significantly during the next week an annual increase of 3.3 ppm seems to be possible. When the cyclic drop will finally start next week, then this annual increase will be (much) lower than that.

It is Sunday evening, therefore time for my actual CO2 posting from Mauna Loa.

The cyclic decrease that is delayed this year may have started on July 17. Next week we will be able to evaluate that.

Week beginning on July 12, 2020:     414.53 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             412.40 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     389.83 ppm
Last updated: July 19, 2020

The annual increase is 2.13 ppm, lower than the 10-y-average (2.47 ppm). The extraordinary low value from July 13 lowered that annual increase.

Outlook:
Next week last year had an average of only 410.2 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of almost 3 ppm shall be expected.


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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #171 on: July 26, 2020, 08:39:16 PM »
Outlook:
Next week last year had an average of only 410.2 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of almost 3 ppm shall be expected.

It is Sunday evening, and the actual Mauna Loa CO2 values are available:
Week beginning on July 19, 2020:     413.90 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:          411.32 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       390.21 ppm
Last updated: July 26, 2020

The annual increase is back above the long-term trend. The CO2 concentrations rose by 2.58 ppm, the 10 y average increase is 2.37 ppm.
This week showed stable slightly falling levels as expected for this time of the year, followed by a more wobbly up and down (intraday).

Outlook:
The next week last year had an average of about 410.3 ppm. With slightly further decreasing values the annual increase should stay above the 10 y average.
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #172 on: August 02, 2020, 05:57:23 PM »
Outlook:
The next week last year had an average of about 410.3 ppm. With slightly further decreasing values the annual increase should stay above the 10 y average.

Sunday evening, the latest CO2 values from NOAA - Mauna Loa are available.

Week beginning on July 26, 2020:     413.22 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:          409.97 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:      389.75 ppm
Last updated: August 2, 2020

The annual increase is above 3 ppm, exactly at 3.25 ppm. The 10y average annual increase is 2.35 ppm.
The last week showed very stable values, slightly decreasing, and on July 31st a massive drop and very bumpy hourly values. Without that day the annual increase would have even been higher.

Outlook:
The next week of last year had an average of around 410.3 ppm. Extrapolating this week's values into the near future will lead to an annual increase slightly below 3 ppm.
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wolfpack513

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #173 on: August 05, 2020, 07:57:06 PM »
July 2020 was up 2.64 ppm over July 2019 on NOAA data for Mauna Loa.  Nothing unexpected.  We’re nearing the end of the effects from the weak Niño/warm ENSO lag from this past winter.   

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #174 on: August 06, 2020, 07:39:11 PM »
Here the "official" CO2 numbers from NOAA:

July 2020:       414.38 ppm
July 2019:       411.74 ppm
Last updated: August 5, 2020

Annual increase = 2.64 ppm, as already posted.

Index 1980 = 100.0, July 2020 = 122.3

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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #175 on: August 09, 2020, 05:25:53 PM »
Outlook:
The next week of last year had an average of around 410.3 ppm. Extrapolating this week's values into the near future will lead to an annual increase slightly below 3 ppm.
Sunday evening - time for an update of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on August 2, 2020:     413.17 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:            410.35 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:         388.71 ppm
Last updated: August 9, 2020

The annual increase is at 2.82 ppm. The 10y average annual increase is lower, at 2.45 ppm.
This week's average should be taken with some grain of salt as most of the days were "unavailable".

Outlook.
Next week of last year came in at 410.3. Best guess would be an annual increase of 2.5 ± 0.25 ppm.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change