Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

When will the first weekly average of Mauna Loa CO2 be over 420 ppm?

April 2021 or earlier
May 2021
Feb-March 2022
April 2022
May 2022
not before 2023

Voting closes: February 04, 2021, 09:43:00 PM

Author Topic: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels  (Read 28237 times)

KiwiGriff

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 851
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 431
  • Likes Given: 154
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #150 on: June 20, 2020, 10:56:59 PM »
Less acceleration is not equal to no acceleration .
Quote
After a rapid increase in global emissions of around 3% per year between 2000 and 2013, emissions only grew by 0.4% per year between 2013 and 2016. This was reversed over the last two years, with emissions growing by 1.6% in 2017 and expected to grow in 2018 by 2.7% (with an uncertainty range of between 1.8% and 3.7%).
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-fossil-fuel-emissions-in-2018-increasing-at-fastest-rate-for-seven-years
As long as human CO2 emissions continue to increase by a positive percentage  per year the keeling curve  must continue to follow a curve.
We will see a fall in emissions due to Covid just as happened after the GFC .
This Blip is not going to have a long term effect on our trajectory.

Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

Hefaistos

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 726
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 76
  • Likes Given: 515
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #151 on: June 21, 2020, 04:23:08 AM »
1. Clearly, we are not having exponential growth anymore, we're on a linear growth path.
I do not agree. The rates are slightly increasing. The later you look the steeper is the slope.

I averaged 100-month increase rates of Mauna Loa CO2:

1959-1967: + 0.77 ppm/year
1967-1975: + 1.10 ppm/year
1975-1984: + 1.50 ppm/year
1984-1992: + 1.52 ppm/year
1992-2000: + 1.59 ppm/year
2000-2009: + 1.99 ppm/year
2009-2017: + 2.34 ppm/year
2012-2020: + 2.48 ppm/year

These data are not compatible with "linear growth path".

See also the annual increase (raw data) in the attached graph. y-axis: increase in ppm/year

True, but I was looking at Wolfie's detrended /ENSO scrubbed data, and they do show that we have an almost constant growth rate:
2011-2018  2.39
2013-2020  2.40

This would be significant, if correct :)

After all, we do expect CO2 to grow exponentially if temperatures are to rise linearly, as there is a logarithmic relationship between radiative forcing (which is directly proportional to the change in surface temperature at equilibrium) and the atmospheric CO2 increase.
This logarithmic relationship means that each doubling of atmospheric CO2 will cause the same amount of warming at the Earth's surface.
Thus, a linear increase in CO2 means we will have the inverse relationship. In the graph, temperatures will increase, but with decreasing amounts. (the green curve instead of the black one)
« Last Edit: June 21, 2020, 08:14:41 AM by Hefaistos »

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #152 on: June 21, 2020, 08:36:10 AM »
So, let's widen our attention to the radiative forcing increase since 1980
(using the "NOAA gases" CO2, CH4, N2O and SF6).
The increase in radiative forcing, using 100-months averages were:
1980-1988: + 0.0319 W/m² per year
1986-1995: + 0.0271 W/m² per year
1995-2003: + 0.0309 W/m² per year
2003-2011: + 0.0321 W/m² per year
2011-2019: + 0.0388 W/m² per year.

All these values include the square-root relation between concentration and radiative forcing that you correctly mentioned.

I do not see a flattening, but, in contrast, a steady increase of the rates. This is equivalent to an acceleration.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2020, 09:14:05 AM by Stephan »
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6431
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2392
  • Likes Given: 2044
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #153 on: June 21, 2020, 02:08:03 PM »
Thank you Stephan for dispelling wrong information.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3946
  • Earth will survive AGW...but will Homo sapiens?
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 641
  • Likes Given: 390
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #154 on: June 21, 2020, 02:25:41 PM »
But at first it dropped. Why is that?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

interstitial

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 663
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 227
  • Likes Given: 76
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #155 on: June 21, 2020, 04:36:05 PM »
helfaistos
2011-2018
2013-2020
That is a 5 year overlap of a 7 year period for the first and 6 1/2 year period on the second. Most data is going to have a similar growth rate when you pick data like that.

kassy

  • Moderator
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2599
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1206
  • Likes Given: 1069
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #156 on: June 21, 2020, 06:22:25 PM »
But at first it dropped. Why is that?

Collapse of the Soviet Union and their allies.
Future looked so bright when the wall fell (no more cold war!) and this was a bonus. And then we went BAU for dollars or something.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #157 on: June 21, 2020, 07:14:12 PM »
Outlook:
Next week last year had an average value of 414.1 ppm. Extrapolating the actual trend into the next week I expect an annual increase of about 2.2 ppm.

Let's go back to the actual data. It is Sunday evening here in Germany and the latest Mauna Loa CO2 values are available.

Week beginning on June 14, 2020:     416.42 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:          413.77 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       391.79 ppm
Last updated: June 21, 2020

The annual increase was 2.65 ppm, slightly higher than the 10 year average of 2.46 ppm.
Since June 14 the intra-day variations were large, since June 19 no daily averages were possible.
Therefore it is too speculative to give any useful outlook.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

bluice

  • Guest
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #158 on: June 21, 2020, 07:48:25 PM »
But at first it dropped. Why is that?

Collapse of the Soviet Union and their allies.
Future looked so bright when the wall fell (no more cold war!) and this was a bonus. And then we went BAU for dollars or something.
Yep. In an alternate history we could have spent the peace dividend to combat climate change. This was definitely on the table in the early nineties. But instead we went after Big Oil and cheap consumer goods from emerging China.

jens

  • New ice
  • Posts: 99
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 63
  • Likes Given: 45
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #159 on: June 22, 2020, 08:26:12 AM »
I fully expect the economic growth to slow down from now onwards and go into permanent recession, as the world situation is already so bad that capitalists simply can't keep the system running in the old ways. But I wonder whether despite that the rising CO2 levels won't be slowing down, because whatever will be missing from economic CO2 output, would be replaced by already activated climate tipping points?

kassy

  • Moderator
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2599
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1206
  • Likes Given: 1069
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #160 on: June 22, 2020, 09:58:11 AM »
Discussions more general the Mauna Loa CO2 can be had in this thread:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2994.0.html

Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

kassy

  • Moderator
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2599
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1206
  • Likes Given: 1069
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #161 on: June 24, 2020, 01:18:12 PM »
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #162 on: June 28, 2020, 04:45:18 PM »
It is Sunday evening and I'd like to post the latest weekly average of Mauna Loa CO2.

Week beginning on June 21, 2020:     416.05 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           413.50 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       391.44 ppm
Last updated: June 28, 2020

The annual increase of 2.55 ppm is very close to the 10 year average (2.56 ppm/a). The values have slightly decreased during this week. In the last days the intra-day variability (which had been extreme end of second last week) has come down to average values.

Outlook:
Last year's next week had an average of about 413.3 ppm. Therefore the annual increase should be around 2.5 ppm. The week after that a rapid decrease towards the seasonal minimum in October begins.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #163 on: July 05, 2020, 07:56:43 PM »
Outlook:
Last year's next week had an average of about 413.3 ppm. Therefore the annual increase should be around 2.5 ppm. The week after that a rapid decrease towards the seasonal minimum in October begins.
Sunday evening - time for an update of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.
Week beginning on June 28, 2020:     415.43 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:           413.39 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       391.14 ppm
Last updated: July 5, 2020

The annual increase is now at 2.05 ppm. The 10-year average annual increase is 2.43 ppm. The daily values decreased smoothly and remarkably stable without too many fluctuations.

Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at 412.1 ppm, a big drop compared to the week before. When this cyclic drop starts this week, the annual increase stays slightly above 2 ppm. When the daily changes of next week follow this week's path, we will end up with an annual increase close to 3 ppm.
Anything seems to be possible...
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #164 on: July 06, 2020, 09:20:50 PM »
It is the sixth of the new month. Therefore the monthly averages of the "NOAA gases" are available. Here is the value of CO2:

June 2020:       416.39 ppm
June 2019:       413.93 ppm
Last updated: July 6, 2020

This is an annual increase of 2.46 ppm. This increase is just at the long-term linear trend line [using values from 1959-2020] of increasing rates (calculated for June the annual increase should be at 2.45 ppm).

I set an index = 100 for the 1980 average [338.75 ppm]. June 2020 is at 122.9 compared to that index. This index value is higher than that of CH4 and N2O (see values in the individual threads).
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

wolfpack513

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 227
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 89
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #165 on: July 07, 2020, 10:15:46 AM »
As Stephan mentioned, nothing out of the ordinary in June 2020's growth rate of 2.46 ppm.

With the 5-month lag, June 2020 lines up well well with January's ENSO level.

Pmt111500

  • Guest
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #166 on: July 07, 2020, 11:05:18 AM »
is it so, that effects of CoViD-19 induced diminishing and cessation of human activities could then be seen in the numbers for next month? I've been assuming the plants react to the CO2 amounts in spring and attempt to take as much advantage they can from higher numbers. This could then be seen in late season growth amounts.

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #167 on: July 07, 2020, 08:50:40 PM »
I invite you to read NOAA's statement about this "Most Frequently Asked Question" in these days:
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/covid2.html
Short summary:
The lockdown's effect on CO2 emissions is too small and too short-lived (many countries including most of Europe have already re-turned into a state close to before the lockdown). The "missing" CO2 is too little to be recognizeable in the natural fluctuation. And it is too early to be statistifically significant. Maybe next year we can draw valid conclusions from the effect of CoViD-19 on atmospheric CO2.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

wolfpack513

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 227
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 89
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #168 on: July 08, 2020, 02:17:46 PM »
Yea too small to be seen.  I removed the anthropogenic trend in my chart above(*ENSO influence remains).  Inter-annual concentration growth variability, largely ENSO driven is 1 to 2 magnitudes higher than year-over-year 5 to 8% global emissions drop. 

Look at the growth variability from 2016 to 2018: about 2 ppm.  The drop in emissions and resulting impact on concentration and growth rates will be nearly undetectable without sophisticated filters/regression analysis.  You have to look at decades of data to tease out anthropogenic effects on concentration.  Don't confuse emissions & concentration.

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #169 on: July 12, 2020, 06:24:09 PM »
Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at 412.1 ppm, a big drop compared to the week before. When this cyclic drop starts this week, the annual increase stays slightly above 2 ppm. When the daily changes of next week follow this week's path, we will end up with an annual increase close to 3 ppm.
Anything seems to be possible...

It is Sunday evening - time for an update of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on July 5, 2020:     415.24 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:        412.12 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     390.39 ppm
Last updated: July 12, 2020

The cyclic drop of CO2 has not started yet, therefore the annual increase is 3.12 ppm. The 10-year annual increase is 2.48 ppm. At the moment there is no sign for a start of this drop.

Therefore the Outlook remains very "unstable". Last year next week had an average of 412.1 ppm. When the actual values do not change significantly during the next week an annual increase of 3.3 ppm seems to be possible. When the cyclic drop will finally start next week, then this annual increase will be (much) lower than that.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #170 on: July 19, 2020, 06:35:00 PM »
Therefore the Outlook remains very "unstable". Last year next week had an average of 412.1 ppm. When the actual values do not change significantly during the next week an annual increase of 3.3 ppm seems to be possible. When the cyclic drop will finally start next week, then this annual increase will be (much) lower than that.

It is Sunday evening, therefore time for my actual CO2 posting from Mauna Loa.

The cyclic decrease that is delayed this year may have started on July 17. Next week we will be able to evaluate that.

Week beginning on July 12, 2020:     414.53 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:             412.40 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:     389.83 ppm
Last updated: July 19, 2020

The annual increase is 2.13 ppm, lower than the 10-y-average (2.47 ppm). The extraordinary low value from July 13 lowered that annual increase.

Outlook:
Next week last year had an average of only 410.2 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of almost 3 ppm shall be expected.


It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #171 on: July 26, 2020, 08:39:16 PM »
Outlook:
Next week last year had an average of only 410.2 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of almost 3 ppm shall be expected.

It is Sunday evening, and the actual Mauna Loa CO2 values are available:
Week beginning on July 19, 2020:     413.90 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:          411.32 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:       390.21 ppm
Last updated: July 26, 2020

The annual increase is back above the long-term trend. The CO2 concentrations rose by 2.58 ppm, the 10 y average increase is 2.37 ppm.
This week showed stable slightly falling levels as expected for this time of the year, followed by a more wobbly up and down (intraday).

Outlook:
The next week last year had an average of about 410.3 ppm. With slightly further decreasing values the annual increase should stay above the 10 y average.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #172 on: August 02, 2020, 05:57:23 PM »
Outlook:
The next week last year had an average of about 410.3 ppm. With slightly further decreasing values the annual increase should stay above the 10 y average.

Sunday evening, the latest CO2 values from NOAA - Mauna Loa are available.

Week beginning on July 26, 2020:     413.22 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:          409.97 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:      389.75 ppm
Last updated: August 2, 2020

The annual increase is above 3 ppm, exactly at 3.25 ppm. The 10y average annual increase is 2.35 ppm.
The last week showed very stable values, slightly decreasing, and on July 31st a massive drop and very bumpy hourly values. Without that day the annual increase would have even been higher.

Outlook:
The next week of last year had an average of around 410.3 ppm. Extrapolating this week's values into the near future will lead to an annual increase slightly below 3 ppm.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

wolfpack513

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 227
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 89
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #173 on: August 05, 2020, 07:57:06 PM »
July 2020 was up 2.64 ppm over July 2019 on NOAA data for Mauna Loa.  Nothing unexpected.  We’re nearing the end of the effects from the weak Niño/warm ENSO lag from this past winter.   

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #174 on: August 06, 2020, 07:39:11 PM »
Here the "official" CO2 numbers from NOAA:

July 2020:       414.38 ppm
July 2019:       411.74 ppm
Last updated: August 5, 2020

Annual increase = 2.64 ppm, as already posted.

Index 1980 = 100.0, July 2020 = 122.3

It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #175 on: August 09, 2020, 05:25:53 PM »
Outlook:
The next week of last year had an average of around 410.3 ppm. Extrapolating this week's values into the near future will lead to an annual increase slightly below 3 ppm.
Sunday evening - time for an update of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on August 2, 2020:     413.17 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:            410.35 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:         388.71 ppm
Last updated: August 9, 2020

The annual increase is at 2.82 ppm. The 10y average annual increase is lower, at 2.45 ppm.
This week's average should be taken with some grain of salt as most of the days were "unavailable".

Outlook.
Next week of last year came in at 410.3. Best guess would be an annual increase of 2.5 ± 0.25 ppm.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #176 on: August 16, 2020, 06:58:40 PM »

Outlook.
Next week of last year came in at 410.3. Best guess would be an annual increase of 2.5 ± 0.25 ppm.
Another week has passed, here are the latest NOAA numbers on CO2 (Mauna Loa):
Week beginning on August 9, 2020:     412.74 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:            410.30 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:        388.86 ppm
Last updated: August 16, 2020

The annual increase is at 2.44 ppm, the 10y average increase is at 2.24 ppm/a.
This week showed slightly decreasing CO2 values, in parts with a high intra-day variability.

Outlook:
Next week last year had an average of around 409.9 ppm. An annual increase of 2.4 ± 0.25 ppm seems likely.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #177 on: August 23, 2020, 06:45:11 PM »
Outlook:
Next week last year had an average of around 409.9 ppm. An annual increase of 2.4 ± 0.25 ppm seems likely.
Sunday evening brings the latest CO2 data from NOAA (Mauna Loa)

Week beginning on August 16, 2020:     412.44 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:              409.74 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:           388.38 ppm
Last updated: August 23, 2020

The annual increase is at 2.70 ppm, higher than I expected last Sunday, and higher than the 10-y-average (2.40 ppm/a). The whole week was very bumpy, with large intra-day fluctuations, two days were "unavailable". The decline of the "valid" days was small. The next weeks until the annual minimum early October will see a slightly steeper decrease. I make a guess that 410 ppm as a weekly average is highly unlikely.

Outlook.
The average CO2 level of the next week last year was around 409.4 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of 2.75 ± 0.25 ppm shall be expected.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

kassy

  • Moderator
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2599
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1206
  • Likes Given: 1069
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #178 on: August 24, 2020, 01:54:07 PM »
Moved a post about covid and global CO2 levels here:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2992.0.html
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #179 on: August 30, 2020, 05:45:47 PM »
Outlook.
The average CO2 level of the next week last year was around 409.4 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of 2.75 ± 0.25 ppm shall be expected.

Another Sunday evening. It is time for the latest CO2 values from NOAA / Mauna Loa.

Week beginning on August 23, 2020:     411.96 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:              409.42 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:           387.47 ppm
Last updated: August 30, 2020

The annual increase is at 2.54 ppm, higher than the 10y average (2.45 ppm). Unlike last week the measured values were very smooth.

Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of around 408.8 ppm. The annual increase should be in the range of 2.6 ± 0.3 ppm.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #180 on: September 06, 2020, 05:52:46 PM »
Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of around 408.8 ppm. The annual increase should be in the range of 2.6 ± 0.3 ppm.

Another Sunday evening - here is the latest Mauna Loa CO2 data.

Week beginning on August 30, 2020:     411.59 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:              408.82 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:           387.59 ppm
Last updated: September 6, 2020

The annual increase is 2.77 ppm, higher than the 10y average (2.40 ppm/a).
This week has shown high intra-day variability, but the daily avarages were quite smooth. There are four more weeks until the annual minimum.

Outlook:
Last year's next week has had an average of about 408.6 ppm. Extrapolating the actual values into the near future will lead to an annual increase of around 2.5 ± 0.25 ppm.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

wolfpack513

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 227
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 89
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #181 on: September 07, 2020, 06:30:20 PM »
With 25 days of NOAA data I calculated 412.50 ppm for August 2020. That's a growth rate of 2.55 ppm over August 2019.

Lagged 5 months for ENSO, CO2 levels are pretty much where you would expect them to be with weak Niño last winter/spring. 

Hefaistos

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 726
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 76
  • Likes Given: 515
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #182 on: September 10, 2020, 04:45:29 AM »
...

Lagged 5 months for ENSO, CO2 levels are pretty much where you would expect them to be with weak Niño last winter/spring.

With the La Nina being more or less established (MEI.v2, see the 2020 ENSO thread), I'd say that a more significant observation would be that the CO2 growth rate is stabilized, and might remain stable during the coming year.

If we go back to the period 2013-2015 we had the same growth rate as now, about 2.5 ppm. After the big El Nino, we're getting back to that level.

To retain a linear forcing from CO2, we need the growth rate to increase exponentially.
A constant growth rate means that the forcing from CO2 will be increasing only logarithmically.

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #183 on: September 10, 2020, 08:27:48 PM »
Here is the official August average for Mauna Loa CO2:

August 2020:       412.55 ppm
August 2019:       409.95 ppm
Last updated: September 9, 2020

The annual increase is at 2.60 ppm. It is above the 10y average increase rate of 2.42 ppm. There is no constant increase rate, but it is slightly increasing. In this month the annual increase rate is even above the long-term trend line of annual increases, which should be at 2.46 ppm/a.

I set an index of 1980 = 100 (338.55 ppm). August 2020 has an indexed value of 121.8.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #184 on: September 13, 2020, 05:42:11 PM »
Outlook:
Last year's next week has had an average of about 408.6 ppm. Extrapolating the actual values into the near future will lead to an annual increase of around 2.5 ± 0.25 ppm.
It is Sunday evening here in Germany, and the latest weekly average of Mauna Loa CO2 is available.

Week beginning on September 6, 2020:     411.37 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                  408.75 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:              386.26 ppm
Last updated: September 13, 2020

The annual increase of 2.62 ppm is still higher than the 10 y average of 2.51 ppm/a.
Last week's values were highly variable intra-day with some hourly averages below 408 ppm. The lowest daily average was 410.8 ppm. With about 0.7 ppm until the annual minimum is reached there may be one or two days' average below 410 ppm, but I do not think that a whole week's average will go below that threshold.

Outlook:
Last year the following week had an average of about 408.4 ppm. The annual increase should therefore be in the range of 2.4 ± 0.3 ppm.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

wolfpack513

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 227
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 89
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #185 on: September 14, 2020, 01:34:22 AM »
There’s no such thing as stabilized, it always changing based on current ENSO and the end points you use.  2.5 ppm rate is just an average.  I would be careful comparing 2013-2015 to now. ONI for those 3 years got progressively warmer.  2015>>2014>2013.  2019 will be the warmest ONI of the last 3 years: 2020<2019>>2018. 

...

Lagged 5 months for ENSO, CO2 levels are pretty much where you would expect them to be with weak Niño last winter/spring.

With the La Nina being more or less established (MEI.v2, see the 2020 ENSO thread), I'd say that a more significant observation would be that the CO2 growth rate is stabilized, and might remain stable during the coming year.

If we go back to the period 2013-2015 we had the same growth rate as now, about 2.5 ppm. After the big El Nino, we're getting back to that level.

To retain a linear forcing from CO2, we need the growth rate to increase exponentially.
A constant growth rate means that the forcing from CO2 will be increasing only logarithmically.

Hefaistos

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 726
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 76
  • Likes Given: 515
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #186 on: September 16, 2020, 02:03:31 PM »
Wolfpack,
upthread you discussed de-trending and said:
"If you want to de-trend just *anthropogenic* effects you have to make sure ENSO(lagged) integrates to zero.
I went with multi-line regression.  I have 4 regression lines where ENSO integrates to zero(accounting for 5 month lag). Blending these together you'll notice that anthropogenic changes are only worth about an additional ~0.1 ppm/year by 2020 compared to 2007. "

How to interpret the bolded statement?
1. the anthropogenic trend was 0.1 ppm/year during that period, so the 14 years together showed an increase of the trend of about 1.4 ppm

2. the anthropogenic trend has increased with ~0.1 ppm/year in 2020 compared to 2007.

I can't match any of those two interpretations with your figures. Maybe would help if you could explain how you calculated the ~0.1 ppm/year figure!

I'm also a bit doubtful about the concept of calculating a trend in an index, like ENSO. Is this a standard procedure when analyzing ENSO?

I really appreciate your efforts to analyze these things, so would be great if you could explain a bit more, Thanks!

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #187 on: September 20, 2020, 05:57:36 PM »
Outlook:
Last year the following week had an average of about 408.4 ppm. The annual increase should therefore be in the range of 2.4 ± 0.3 ppm.
Sunday evening = time for an update of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on September 13, 2020:     411.47 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                    408.48 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                 387.00 ppm
Last updated: September 20, 2020

The annual increase has increased to 2.99 ppm, higher than the 10y average of 2.44 ppm/a.

The reason for this higher than expected increase is that the first four days of this week showed higher values than the week before. Generally the hourly values have smoothed, and the inter-day variations of the last three days are very small.

Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of 408.2 ppm. An annual increase of 2.8 ± 0.3 ppm seems to be likely.

It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9643
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3811
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #188 on: September 20, 2020, 08:10:48 PM »
A Sunday evening speculation...

They tell us it takes a few months for CO2 emissions to fully mix in the atmosphere, but even so here goes.

Offsetting emissions reductions from COVID reducing economic activity are a good many megatons of CO2 from the wildfires. A double whammy is that several million acres of forests and grasslands that should have been photosynthesising were burning instead. In some parts of the world it has been very dry and too hot, that reduces photosynthesis. In other parts very wet - floods, that also are not conducive to phtosynthesis.

Hence high CO2 ppm gain? On the otther hand it might simply be that the land and ocean CO2 sinks are failing. Land use changes & ocean acidification. 

At any rate, one more nail in the coffin.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

wolfpack513

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 227
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 89
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #189 on: September 21, 2020, 06:54:47 PM »
ONI values are based on Nino 3.4 which is detrended for AGW: baseline is shifted every 5 years. Detrended doesn't cancel out natural variability.

The greatest influence on CO2 growth rate is current/previous ENSO state. So if you have 5 years of predominately cold ENSO followed by 5 years of warm ENSO that's natural variability BUT you're going to have a huge trend up in CO2 growth rates. You can't claim that CO2 concentrations growth rates are rapidly increasing due to anthropogenic when most of the increase is start and end points. 

Wolfpack,
upthread you discussed de-trending and said:
"If you want to de-trend just *anthropogenic* effects you have to make sure ENSO(lagged) integrates to zero.
I went with multi-line regression.  I have 4 regression lines where ENSO integrates to zero(accounting for 5 month lag). Blending these together you'll notice that anthropogenic changes are only worth about an additional ~0.1 ppm/year by 2020 compared to 2007. "

How to interpret the bolded statement?
1. the anthropogenic trend was 0.1 ppm/year during that period, so the 14 years together showed an increase of the trend of about 1.4 ppm

2. the anthropogenic trend has increased with ~0.1 ppm/year in 2020 compared to 2007.

I can't match any of those two interpretations with your figures. Maybe would help if you could explain how you calculated the ~0.1 ppm/year figure!

I'm also a bit doubtful about the concept of calculating a trend in an index, like ENSO. Is this a standard procedure when analyzing ENSO?

I really appreciate your efforts to analyze these things, so would be great if you could explain a bit more, Thanks!

gerontocrat

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9643
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3811
  • Likes Given: 29
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #190 on: September 24, 2020, 12:25:35 PM »
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

kassy

  • Moderator
  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2599
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1206
  • Likes Given: 1069
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #191 on: September 24, 2020, 01:44:39 PM »
Depressing little movie but a good visualization. This is the tide we have to stem.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #192 on: September 26, 2020, 03:33:00 PM »
* just kidding *
I propose to re-draw the "Fuji picture" with its top being equivalent to 475 ppm CO2. Then we will be able to see it for a while longer...
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #193 on: September 27, 2020, 04:58:09 PM »
Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of 408.2 ppm. An annual increase of 2.8 ± 0.3 ppm seems to be likely.
Sunday evening - an update from Mauna Loa CO2:

Week beginning on September 20, 2020:     411.00 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                   408.34 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                386.81 ppm
Last updated: September 27, 2020

The annual increase is 2.66 ppm. It is lower than last week, but still higher than the 10y average of 2.42 ppm/a. Apart from Sep 22 ("Unavailable") all days passed NOAA's quality standards. The intra-day and inter-day variations were in a normal range. Next week will be the lowest value of this season. I bet the week won't fall below 410 ppm.

Outlook:
Next week last year had an average slightly below 408 ppm. An annual increase of 2.7 ppm ± 0.3 should be ecxpected. Let's see whether it will work out this way...
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #194 on: October 04, 2020, 07:02:56 PM »
Outlook:
Next week last year had an average slightly below 408 ppm. An annual increase of 2.7 ppm ± 0.3 should be ecxpected. Let's see whether it will work out this way...

Sunday evening update of Mauna Loa CO2 concentration.

Week beginning on September 27, 2020:     411.06 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                    407.97 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                386.77 ppm
Last updated: October 4, 2020

The annual increase is 3.09 ppm. This value is higher than I had expected last Sunday and it is higher than the 10y average of 2.43 ppm/a.
The weekly average has not even gone below 411 ppm, but dipped below it last Sunday, Monday and Wednesday. From the long term experience the seasonal minimum has been reached. The increase towards the seasonal maximum in May will begin slowly throughout October.

Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of 408.3 ppm. An annual increase of 2.8 ± 0.3 ppm should be expected.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

wolfpack513

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 227
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 89
  • Likes Given: 33
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #195 on: October 06, 2020, 01:06:06 PM »
With 29 of 30 days of NOAA Mauna Loa I calculated 411.30 ppm for September 2020.  That's an increase of 2.76 ppm over September 2019.

Accounting for the 5-month ENSO lag the bump from a weak El Nino should be ending with October data.  ERSSTv5 for Nino 3.4 went from +0.45°C in April to -0.19°C in May.

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #196 on: October 06, 2020, 08:23:58 PM »
And here comes the official value from NOAA:

September 2020:       411.29 ppm
September 2019:       408.54 ppm
Last updated: October 6, 2020

The annual increase is 2.75 ppm. Last year (Sep 2019 vs. Sep 2018) it was at 3.03 ppm.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #197 on: October 11, 2020, 07:04:02 PM »
Outlook:
Last year next week had an average of 408.3 ppm. An annual increase of 2.8 ± 0.3 ppm should be expected.

Sunday evening - time to post the latest CO2 concentration from NOAA (Mauna Loa)

Week beginning on October 4, 2020:     411.05 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:              408.33 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:           386.98 ppm
Last updated: October 11, 2020

The annual increase is 2.72 ppm. This value is again higher than the 10y average (2.41 ppm/a).
We are now in the seasonal minimum. The values were very smooth and didn't change within this week.

Outlook:
The next week of last year had an average of about 408.6 ppm. I expect an annual increase of 2.6 ± 0.25 ppm.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Stephan

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1413
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 504
  • Likes Given: 243
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #198 on: October 17, 2020, 10:45:23 PM »
I just added a poll to this thread, because 420 ppm is exactly 50% above pre-industrial and we are approaching this limit in the not too distant future. When exactly - this is up to you to guess.
One option per voter, which cannot be changed.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3946
  • Earth will survive AGW...but will Homo sapiens?
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 641
  • Likes Given: 390
Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #199 on: October 18, 2020, 12:57:43 AM »
I took Apr 2022, but it might be a year earlier, since I think the 2021 peak will be something like 419.98.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS