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When will the first weekly average of Mauna Loa CO2 be over 420 ppm?

April 2021 or earlier
May 2021
Feb-March 2022
April 2022
May 2022
not before 2023

Voting closes: February 04, 2021, 09:43:00 PM

Author Topic: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels  (Read 25090 times)

karl dubhe2

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #200 on: October 18, 2020, 01:30:20 AM »
I took Apr 2022, but it might be a year earlier, since I think the 2021 peak will be something like 419.98.

As did I, because that's the fourth month, and it'll happen on the 20th day...   

As a long term lurker, you all might not know that Karl Dubhe is an old term for 'hash joint'.   

Puff, puff, puff; virtual pass.

crandles

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #201 on: October 18, 2020, 02:11:50 AM »
Question in weeks but answers in months, that raises this question:

Week commencing 26 April 2020 was 416.82
Does that week count as April because began in April?
or April because most in April?
or May because it ends in May?

3.18 increase in a year after likely La Nina this winter doesn't seem likely.

Week commencing 24 May 2020 417.43
Annual increase of 2.57 needed and last posted increase 2.72 so La Nina only has to knock .15 off that increase for May 2021 to fail.

Record week in 2019 was beaten in March 2020 by .35
Record week in 2018 was not beaten until week commencing 31 March 2019 by .32

April usually increases over March by a lot so seems likely to happen by April 22.

So initial reaction is that sensible answers seem to be May 2021 or Feb-March 2022 or April 2022.

More info by closing date of 4 Feb 21 and cannot change vote suggests waiting before actually making vote.

I am using https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html for data but there could be other sources so perhaps the source of data should be specified?

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #202 on: October 18, 2020, 07:24:21 AM »
Just for clarification:
1. A week beginning in April will be counted for April, even if it ends in May. The same rule aplies for any other month.
2. I use the source https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html as "official" data.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

kassy

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #203 on: October 18, 2020, 12:56:43 PM »
This is a fun question. Just tagging 2.5 or something similar on certain values gives you something slightly below 420 and then it gets a bit more complicated.  :)
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #204 on: October 18, 2020, 08:54:39 PM »
It is Sunday evening here in Germany, and time for the weekly update of Mauna Loa CO2 values. But there is no update.
I will post them as soon as they are available.
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #205 on: October 19, 2020, 07:28:13 PM »
Outlook:
The next week of last year had an average of about 408.6 ppm. I expect an annual increase of 2.6 ± 0.25 ppm.
With one day delay the actual values from Mauna Loa are available:

Week beginning on October 11, 2020:     411.12 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                408.57 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            386.86 ppm
Last updated: October 19, 2020

The annual increase is 2.55 ppm, slightly higher than the 10 y average of 2.42 ppm/a.
The intra-day variations were huge, but the inter-day variation was quite small. The seasonal minimum has now passed. We are 8.88 ppm away from the "poll value" of 420.0 ppm.

Outlook:
Last year next week was around 408.7 ppm. Extrapolating the actual values into the near future would result in an annual increase of 2.6 ± 0.25 ppm.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change