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When will the first weekly average of Mauna Loa CO2 be over 420 ppm?

April 2021 or earlier
May 2021
Feb-March 2022
April 2022
May 2022
not before 2023

Voting closes: February 04, 2021, 09:43:00 PM

Author Topic: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels  (Read 27810 times)

karl dubhe2

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #200 on: October 18, 2020, 01:30:20 AM »
I took Apr 2022, but it might be a year earlier, since I think the 2021 peak will be something like 419.98.

As did I, because that's the fourth month, and it'll happen on the 20th day...   

As a long term lurker, you all might not know that Karl Dubhe is an old term for 'hash joint'.   

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crandles

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #201 on: October 18, 2020, 02:11:50 AM »
Question in weeks but answers in months, that raises this question:

Week commencing 26 April 2020 was 416.82
Does that week count as April because began in April?
or April because most in April?
or May because it ends in May?

3.18 increase in a year after likely La Nina this winter doesn't seem likely.

Week commencing 24 May 2020 417.43
Annual increase of 2.57 needed and last posted increase 2.72 so La Nina only has to knock .15 off that increase for May 2021 to fail.

Record week in 2019 was beaten in March 2020 by .35
Record week in 2018 was not beaten until week commencing 31 March 2019 by .32

April usually increases over March by a lot so seems likely to happen by April 22.

So initial reaction is that sensible answers seem to be May 2021 or Feb-March 2022 or April 2022.

More info by closing date of 4 Feb 21 and cannot change vote suggests waiting before actually making vote.

I am using https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/data.html for data but there could be other sources so perhaps the source of data should be specified?

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #202 on: October 18, 2020, 07:24:21 AM »
Just for clarification:
1. A week beginning in April will be counted for April, even if it ends in May. The same rule aplies for any other month.
2. I use the source https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html as "official" data.
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kassy

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #203 on: October 18, 2020, 12:56:43 PM »
This is a fun question. Just tagging 2.5 or something similar on certain values gives you something slightly below 420 and then it gets a bit more complicated.  :)
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #204 on: October 18, 2020, 08:54:39 PM »
It is Sunday evening here in Germany, and time for the weekly update of Mauna Loa CO2 values. But there is no update.
I will post them as soon as they are available.
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #205 on: October 19, 2020, 07:28:13 PM »
Outlook:
The next week of last year had an average of about 408.6 ppm. I expect an annual increase of 2.6 ± 0.25 ppm.
With one day delay the actual values from Mauna Loa are available:

Week beginning on October 11, 2020:     411.12 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                408.57 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            386.86 ppm
Last updated: October 19, 2020

The annual increase is 2.55 ppm, slightly higher than the 10 y average of 2.42 ppm/a.
The intra-day variations were huge, but the inter-day variation was quite small. The seasonal minimum has now passed. We are 8.88 ppm away from the "poll value" of 420.0 ppm.

Outlook:
Last year next week was around 408.7 ppm. Extrapolating the actual values into the near future would result in an annual increase of 2.6 ± 0.25 ppm.
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #206 on: October 25, 2020, 07:25:47 PM »
Outlook:
Last year next week was around 408.7 ppm. Extrapolating the actual values into the near future would result in an annual increase of 2.6 ± 0.25 ppm.
This week the latest CO2 values from Mauna Loa are available on Sunday evening again  :)
Week beginning on October 18, 2020:     411.52 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:               408.73 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            387.54 ppm
Last updated: October 25, 2020

The annual increase of 2.79 ppm is a little bit higher than I expected last Monday. The reason for this is an uptick, combined with massive intra-day variations, from Oct 21 on. The annual increase is also higher than the 10y average of 2.40 ppm/a. 8.48 ppm are missing to the "poll value".

Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at 409.3 ppm. I expect an annual increase of 2.6 ± 0.3 ppm.
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #207 on: November 01, 2020, 05:48:34 PM »
Outlook:
Last year next week averaged at 409.3 ppm. I expect an annual increase of 2.6 ± 0.3 ppm.

Sunday evening - time to post the latest Mauna Loa CO2 values.

Week beginning on October 25, 2020:     411.48 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                409.21 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:            387.83 ppm
Last updated: November 1, 2020

The annual increase has decreased to only 2.27 ppm. For the first time since months it is lower than the 10 y average (2.36 ppm/a). October 27 was really low (411.00 ppm), which has put the average a little down. Anyway the values follow the seasonal path now and will increase steeply until beginning of January, then the slope will become moderate.

Outlook:
Last year next week came in at 409.7 ppm. An annual increase of 2.5 ± 0.25 ppm should be expected.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

interstitial

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #208 on: November 01, 2020, 11:11:43 PM »

 current value + yrs to 2023*annual growth rate

411.48 +2.17*(2.6)=417.44 at end of 2022/begin 2023


Lets see if this changes peoples guesses.

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #209 on: November 01, 2020, 11:15:40 PM »
what about June 2022-Dec 2022?

crandles

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #210 on: November 01, 2020, 11:23:20 PM »
what about June 2022-Dec 2022?

June-Dec is always lower than May

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #211 on: November 01, 2020, 11:26:44 PM »
what about June 2022-Dec 2022?

June-Dec is always lower than May
Yeah I forgot about the annual cycle

crandles

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #212 on: November 01, 2020, 11:30:04 PM »

 current value + yrs to 2023*annual growth rate

411.48 +2.17*(2.6)=417.44 at end of 2022/begin 2023


Lets see if this changes peoples guesses.

Extrapolating on from low point in annual cycle without accounting for annual cycle doesn't seem to be a great idea. Following May typically around 8 higher than the low point. 417.44+8 is well past 420 level so May 23 looks a bit too late. ;)

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #213 on: November 01, 2020, 11:42:38 PM »

 current value + yrs to 2023*annual growth rate

411.48 +2.17*(2.6)=417.44 at end of 2022/begin 2023


Lets see if this changes peoples guesses.

Extrapolating on from low point in annual cycle without accounting for annual cycle doesn't seem to be a great idea. Following May typically around 8 higher than the low point. 417.44+8 is well past 420 level so May 23 looks a bit too late. ;)
I knew their had to be something I was missing. Sometimes the only way to figure it out is to demonstrate my ignorance. I expected to be wrong. thanks for the correction.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #214 on: November 02, 2020, 11:09:52 AM »
What month is the usual annual minimum again?
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nanning

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #215 on: November 02, 2020, 12:32:00 PM »
Tom, in my opinion this is trolling behaviour by you.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html
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"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #216 on: November 02, 2020, 06:46:23 PM »
nanning, your reference does not explicitly state a minimal month. It shows a chart which looks like this year the minimum was in early October, but last year was probably earlier.
I knew the minimum would not be in February (for example) but did not remember if it is normally August, September, October or November.
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #217 on: November 02, 2020, 10:17:51 PM »
What month is the usual annual minimum again?
The annual minimum is reached end Sep / beginning Oct.
https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html
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wolfpack513

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #218 on: November 05, 2020, 05:49:09 AM »
I estimated October 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 at 411.30 using NOAA data. That's an increase of 2.7 ppm over October 2019. 

Due to the 3 to 5 month ENSO→CO2 lag It's still too early for any La Niña impact. Keep in mind May, June & July Niño 3.4 values were basically neutral/cool neutral: -0.2°C to -0.3°C.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #219 on: November 06, 2020, 06:58:41 PM »
wolfpack,
thank you for your estimation.
The official values (Mauna Loa CO2) are:
October 2020:       411.28 ppm
October 2019:       408.52 ppm
Last updated: November 6, 2020

This is an annual increase of 2.76 ppm. Last year this value was at 2.52 ppm/a, two years ago 2.37 ppm/a.
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #220 on: November 09, 2020, 09:29:07 PM »
Outlook:
Last year next week came in at 409.7 ppm. An annual increase of 2.5 ± 0.25 ppm should be expected.
With one day of delay the latest numbers from Mauna Loa CO2 have been published:

Week beginning on November 1, 2020:     411.68 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 409.86 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             388.03 ppm
Last updated: November 9, 2020

The annual increase went down to 1.82 ppm. This is the lowest value for many months. It is also lower than the 10 y average increase (2.36 ppm/a).
What has happened?
I do not know, to be honest.
Nov 1&2 showed a "normal" value of around 412 ppm. Nov 3 went down by almost 1.2 ppm to below 411 ppm. Since then - no graph and no daily averages ("unavailable"). Therefore the weekly average may just contain the data from Nov 1 to Nov 3. Too few data points, one of them (Nov 3) very noisy, to take this low annual increase too seriously.

Outlook:
No outlook possible, sorry.
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kassy

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #221 on: November 10, 2020, 01:10:37 PM »
Interesting. Lets hope next week is more complete.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #222 on: November 11, 2020, 06:53:58 PM »
mid-week update.
The problem seems to be fixed.
The latest values:
November 10:     413.16 ppm
November 09:     412.06 ppm
November 08:     412.14 ppm
November 07:     412.32 ppm
November 06:     412.29 ppm
Last Updated: November 11, 2020
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #223 on: November 15, 2020, 08:38:26 PM »
Sunday evening - time for the latest weekly average of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on November 8, 2020:     412.75 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                 410.20 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:             388.10 ppm
Last updated: November 15, 2020

The annual increase is back where it used to be, at 2.55 ppm, higher than the 10 y average (2.46 ppm/a). The problem they had last week obviously has been fixed.
According to the season the CO2 levels are slowly rising. On Nov 10 and 11 they were accompanied with high hourly deviations and a higher level than on the other days.

Outlook:
Last year next week came in at 410.3 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of 2.6 ppm ± 0.25 is likely.
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #224 on: November 22, 2020, 08:57:10 PM »
Outlook:
Last year next week came in at 410.3 ppm. Therefore an annual increase of 2.6 ppm ± 0.25 is likely.

The Sunday evening post, bringing you the latest weekly average of Mauna Loa CO2 levels.

Week beginning on November 15, 2020:     412.53 ppm
Weekly value from 1 year ago:                   410.17 ppm
Weekly value from 10 years ago:                388.82 ppm
Last updated: November 22, 2020

The annual increase is at 2.36 ppm, very close to the 10 y average (2.37 ppm/a). This week began with very stable days, followed by extreme ups and downs including one 'unavailable' day.
Mid-November usually sees a stall in the seasonal cycle. From next week on the values will continue to rise.

Outlook:
Last year's next week averaged at 410.7 ppm. An annual increase of 2.2 ± 0.25 ppm seems to be likely.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #225 on: November 22, 2020, 10:53:32 PM »
Quote
Mid-November usually sees a stall in the seasonal cycle.
Any idea why?
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Stephan

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #226 on: November 24, 2020, 06:53:17 PM »
I have identified four periods during the year in which the steady increase is etopped (mid-Nov) or reversed (mid-Jan, mid-Feb, mid-Apr).
As global CO2 concentration depends on thousand of different influences (climate, seasons, currents, growing seasons, sea temperatures, the inequal positions of the continents on both hemispheres, ...) it seems impossible to find good and clear "monocausal" reasons for this behaviour.
I circled the periods in green on the attached graph.
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wolfpack513

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Re: 2020 Mauna Loa CO2 levels
« Reply #227 on: November 26, 2020, 10:25:34 AM »
Looks like intra-seasonal variability: MJO.  Notice how those periods you picked are separated by ~60 days in length, typical MJO time length around the world.

Take that 2 week period beginning on February 20, 2020 for example.  Convection was suppressed with downward motion. This strengthens the marine inversion, stratifying the boundary layer from the rest of the troposphere.  Less CO2 mixes up to the higher slopes of Mauna Loa.  This all averages out over the course of the season/year.  Most of the horse race following of week to week measurements is just internal variability on top of the anthropogenic trend.