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KiwiGriff

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Hurricane Season 2020
« on: January 15, 2020, 05:20:25 AM »
Quote
FORECAST TO 1200 UTC THU 16-JAN-2020
Tropical Disturbance TD04F (93P)was located just north of northern
Vanuatu 1800UTC this morning. The chance for this system to develop
into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is HIGH.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC SUN 19-JAN-2020
TD04F (93P) has a HIGH chance of being a tropical cyclone from
overnight tonight (Wednesday) onwards, and is forecast to move
southeast. On this track, the system is expected to affect Fiji and
Rotuma during Friday. A number of warnings and alerts issued by Fiji
Meteorological Service are currently in force for Fiji and Rotuma.
Please visit www.met.gov.fj for details while the system remains
north of 25S.

https://www.metservice.com/warnings/tropical-cyclone-activity

When I spent time in Fiji around 2006 the locals said that Fiji has not been hit directly for decades.
This may be the forth direct impact since 2006 .
 
Like the so called Floridian "shield" or low rate  of land falls in the Continental USA over the last two decades  such an anomaly is  a matter of random chance.
South_Pacific_cyclone_tracks_1980-2005

 

KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #1 on: January 17, 2020, 03:22:07 AM »
TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 2306 UTC 16-Jan-2020

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Tropical cyclone Tino (985hPa, Category 1) was located about 70nm (
130km) southeast of Rotuma, or about 200nm (370km) to the northwest
of Labasa this morning (16/1800 UTC), moving southeast. Maximum winds
near the centre were estimated to be about 40 knots (75km/h),
increasing to 50 knots (95km/h) in the next 24 hours, with gales
extending to 150 nm (280 km)from the centre.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC SAT 18-JAN-2020
TC Tino is expected to move southeast, across Vanua Levu, Fiji this
evening and the Lau Group early tomorrow as a Category 2 cyclone. The
system is expected to lie to the south of Tongatatu, Tonga tomorrow
night.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC TUE 21-JAN-2020

TC Tino is expected to continue on the southeast track, and based on
the current model outlooks, it is expected to move out of the tropics
during Sunday afternoon. There is a chance that it could intensify
slightly while moving south of Tonga. No other significant lows
expected.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0000 UTC Sat 18-Jan-2020
https://www.metservice.com/warnings/tropical-cyclone-activity

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2020, 05:34:47 PM »
Australia

Cyclone Damien intensifies off WA coast as Karratha braces for impact on Saturday
Quote
• Damien will be the most destructive cyclone to cross the WA coast since 2013
• It is likely to hit just east of Karratha, a major population centre in the region
• A red alert has been issued ahead of the storm's arrival on Saturday afternoon
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/cyclone-damien-intensifies-off-wa-as-karratha-braces-for-impact/11942984
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #3 on: February 13, 2020, 01:18:03 AM »
Bomb Cyclone Dennis Could Rival Some of the Most Intense North Atlantic Storms on Record
Quote
Storm Dennis will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northwestern Europe this weekend.
It will likely undergo bombogenesis, indicative of a rapidly strengthening powerful storm.

Dennis could rival some of the most intense North Atlantic storms in terms of lowest sea-level pressure.
A new powerful storm will take aim at northwestern Europe later this week just days after Storm Ciara pounded several countries with high winds and torrential rain and killed at least eight people.

Storm Dennis was named by the U.K. Met Office on Tuesday. Computer forecast models predict this low-pressure system to intensify as it moves across the North Atlantic Ocean through Saturday, likely becoming a bomb cyclone.

A bomb cyclone is a term used when a low-pressure system undergoes bombogenesis, meaning its central pressure drops by at least 24 millibars within 24 hours, a sign of rapid strengthening.

Forecast guidance suggests the central pressure of Storm Dennis will drop below 930 millibars when it's south of Iceland by Friday or Saturday. The lower the pressure, the more intense the storm, increasing the likelihood of strong winds. ...
https://weather.com/news/international/news/2020-02-12-bomb-cyclone-dennis-rival-most-intense-north-atlantic-storms

More here:  https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,323.msg249436.html#msg249436
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #4 on: February 13, 2020, 09:33:30 AM »
A new powerful storm will take aim at northwestern Europe later this week just days after Storm Ciara pounded several countries with high winds and torrential rain and killed at least eight people.

Storm Dennis was named by the U.K. Met Office on Tuesday. Computer forecast models predict this low-pressure system to intensify as it moves across the North Atlantic Ocean through Saturday, likely becoming a bomb cyclone.

I followed the progress of Ciara closely on Twitter last weekend. Starting here:

https://twitter.com/V2gUK/status/1226451525964304385

I will be doing much the same with Dennis this coming weekend. However neither of them are "hurricanes" or "tropical cyclones". Are we broadening the remit of this thread?

If so:
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #5 on: February 13, 2020, 04:53:28 PM »
Are we broadening the remit of this thread? 

Quote
Alicia M Bentley: "It's pretty difficult to get a <-4σ standardized MSLP anomaly in the North Atlantic during the winter. If this forecast verifies, we could see a 927-hPa cyclone with hurricane-force winds at 1800 UTC on February 15th!”
https://mobile.twitter.com/aliciambentley/status/1227270399508934657

920mb is hurricane country. 

Quote
NWS OPC (@NWSOPC)  2/13/20, 7:55 AM
Feb 12-13: explosive cyclogenesis across the western and central Atlantic, as seen via GOES-E RGB air mass imagery -- low continues to produce hazardous marine conditions including #hurricane force winds to 80 kt, seas well in excess of 40 ft. #MarineWx
https://twitter.com/nwsopc/status/1227939448807026690
Image below; more at the link.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 05:17:48 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #6 on: February 13, 2020, 05:20:30 PM »
920mb is hurricane country. 

I am used to hurricane force winds. I am located near the coast of North Cornwall!

However Dennis is not a hurricane.
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The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #7 on: February 13, 2020, 06:05:47 PM »
920mb is hurricane country. 

I am used to hurricane force winds. I am located near the coast of North Cornwall!

However Dennis is not a hurricane.

I agree.  This is not a hurricane.  While this low pressure is rare, it is not unprecedented for a winter storm.

be cause

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #8 on: February 13, 2020, 09:48:31 PM »
gfs .. 42 hours out : Dennis has 2 deep centres below 925 mb .. both potentially in the 5 deepest lows recorded . In the following hours one deepens further to below 920 mb .. potentially the 2nd lowest pressure ever recorded in the N. Atlantic . This Dennis is certainly a menace to me .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #9 on: February 13, 2020, 11:59:05 PM »
If we're sticking with Dennis in here, then this is the 18Z chart and the 48 hour forecast.

Those isobars are pretty tightly packed over North Cornwall!

« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 12:08:21 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #10 on: February 15, 2020, 11:14:55 AM »
The NWS 06Z chart. 936 hPa and "hurricane force" winds, although thankfully not yet in North Cornwall. The rain certainly has however!

Plus the UKMO's 12Z forecast:
« Last Edit: February 15, 2020, 11:26:34 AM by Jim Hunt »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #11 on: February 15, 2020, 02:37:46 PM »
NWS OPC on Twitter: "Today is the climatological peak for #extratropical #hurricaneforce lows in the North Atlantic. Can you tell? #MarineWx”
https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/1228428157830619136
Image below.

NWS OPC on Twitter: "GOES-16 RGB Airmass imagery from 12z yesterday to 21z today show the evolution of yesterdays picturesque #HurricaneForce low, and the development of the next rapidly intensifying low that is forecast to deepen to 914 mb by 18z tomorrow. #Marinewx"
https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/1228441208814309376
Colorful satellite gif at the link.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #12 on: February 15, 2020, 11:41:52 PM »
The NWS 18Z chart for Storm Dennis. 920 hPa MSLP and the winds have certainly reached North Cornwall now!

Lisa the LEAF and I ventured out into them, and met another Lisa on the beach!

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blumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #13 on: February 16, 2020, 06:19:22 AM »
Hey Jim, you need a microphone windscreen. ;)
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #14 on: February 16, 2020, 11:18:46 AM »
Hey Jim, you need a microphone windscreen. ;)

Turning my back to the prevailing wind was quite effective. Hindsight is a wonderful thing!

Meanwhile, here are the UKMO 0Z and NWS 6Z charts, plus the latest band of rain across South West England:
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #15 on: February 16, 2020, 01:57:20 PM »
According to the Environment Agency this is the largest number of flood alerts/warnings ever issued simultaneously in the history of the English enclave of the once United Kingdom:



Note the recently flooded building site!

P.S. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2020/storm-dennis-triggers-red-rain-warning
« Last Edit: February 16, 2020, 02:16:58 PM by Jim Hunt »
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #16 on: February 16, 2020, 02:26:04 PM »
Hi Jim!

Here in the Calder Valley the ghoulish media crews picked a Dud to spend the night awaiting!

The River Calder was a good metre and a half below the 5.02m of last Sunday's peak levels

The Army are now cast with a 'Grand old Duke of York-ish' task of taking away the mountain of (now sodden) sandbags they deployed up and down the Valley over the course of yesterday p.m.

My thoughts are with all of those struggling further south of here with the kind of River levels that visited us last Sunday!
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be cause

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #17 on: February 16, 2020, 02:29:33 PM »
woke during the night to strange banging .. then found lots of insulation around my mobile home this morning . Realise now it was the roof trying to escape . Thankfully it didn't quite get away .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #18 on: February 16, 2020, 03:05:15 PM »
I have just discovered that WorldView now offers geostationary imagery with 10 minute resolution.

Here's GOES-E at 09Z yesterday morning:

https://go.nasa.gov/2OZQDkb
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #19 on: February 16, 2020, 03:12:00 PM »
Dr. Michael Folmer, one the OPC's Marine Forecasters, has written a blog post summarizing the most recent hurricane force low pressure system in the E Atlantic. It includes spectacular satellite imagery, and can be found at this link:

https://satelliteliaisonblog.com/2020/02/16/north-atlantic-storminess-february-13-15-2020/

Quote
A rapidly intensifying low pressure system made its way into the Atlantic on Tuesday, 11 February 2020 and quickly grew into a powerful extratropical cyclone producing hurricane force winds by Thursday, 13 February 2020. By 0600 UTC on 14 February 2020, the low bottomed out with a minimum low pressure of 929mb. This system deepened by more than 40 mb in 24 hours during its rapid intensification phase, classifying it as a “bomb” cyclone. It tracked north towards Iceland where it caused hurricane force wind gusts, the highest gust, although terrain enhanced, reached 159 mph (https://www.severe-weather.eu/recent-events/near-record-wind-gusts-255kmh-hafnarfjall-iceland-mk/). These gusts were recorded on the leading edge of the cyclone where the cold conveyor belt north of the occluded front in the N-NE quadrants played a role.

This intense extratropical cyclone was closely followed by another cyclone (named Dennis by the UKMet office) rapidly intensified during the day on 14 February 2020 deepening by 40 mb in 24 hours, classifying it as another bomb cyclone. This system is following a similar path as the previous cyclone, capitalizing on the favorable baroclinic environment left in the wake of the first cyclone.

In the RGB Airmass imagery (above) from GOES-16, it is clear that there is also a large potential vorticity anomaly (red shading) upstream of the system, originating from a trough over the eastern United States. This inflow of potential vorticity into the storm is aiding the rapid intensification of the system. This system deepened to 920 mb as of the Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) 1800 UTC analysis on 15 February 2020. Hurricane force winds have been sampled by ASCAT scatterometers and by aircraft in the early morning hours of 15 February 2020 with maximum winds of 94 kt! …
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Gray-Wolf

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KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #21 on: February 16, 2020, 05:07:31 PM »
Stu Ostro: "The sun rises and sets on #StormDennis and its #Fujiwhara dance partner”
https://mobile.twitter.com/stuostro/status/1228800670075150337
Satellite gif at the link.

—-
  Edit:
Quote
Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) 2/16/20, 12:23 PM
What a wild & complex weather extremity—a 929 millibar beast followed by another meteorological bomb as the pressure of #StormDennis dropped to 920 (one of the lowest on record in this part of the world), & then the 2 combined into a massive cyclone while doing a #Fujiwhara dance
https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1229093851895336960
Different, colorized, sat-gif at the link.

—————-
—-  :o
Andrew Freedman: "When a forecaster decides to draw a cold front THIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . BIG."
https://mobile.twitter.com/afreedma/status/1228800328570736641
Image below.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2020, 07:45:11 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #22 on: February 17, 2020, 05:39:27 PM »
Quote
NWS OPC (@NWSOPC) 2/16/20, 10:30 AM
As seen in OPC's 12 UTC Atlantic surface analysis, the low in the Northeast #Atlantic, south of #Iceland, has weakened a bit to #storm force. That said the low remains very intense w/seas up to 14.5 m (47 ft) west of the #BritishIsles, per the 12 UTC Atlantic sea-state analysis.
https://twitter.com/nwsopc/status/1229065426975412224
Images below.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #23 on: February 17, 2020, 05:44:57 PM »
Quote
NWS OPC (@NWSOPC) 2/16/20, 10:30 AM
As seen in OPC's 12 UTC Atlantic surface analysis, the low in the Northeast #Atlantic, south of #Iceland, has weakened a bit to #storm force. That said the low remains very intense w/seas up to 14.5 m (47 ft) west of the #BritishIsles, per the 12 UTC Atlantic sea-state analysis.
https://twitter.com/nwsopc/status/1229065426975412224
Images below.
It were the rain wot dunnit this time. River Wye in Hereford exceeds the high in 1795 - yes 1795.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #24 on: February 17, 2020, 07:02:26 PM »
Quote
It were the rain wot dunnit this time. River Wye in Hereford exceeds the high in 1795 - yes 1795.

 :o  Some locations received two months’ worth of rain in 48 hours.

Hereford hit by 'devastating' floods as River Wye reaches record levels in aftermath of Storm Dennis
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/hereford-floods-river-why-record-levels-storm-dennis-weather-latest-a4363976.html

Flood risk remains as Storm Dennis rain swells rivers to ‘exceptional’ levels
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/flood-risk-remains-as-storm-dennis-rain-swells-rivers-to-exceptional-levels-38964009.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #25 on: February 18, 2020, 04:03:28 AM »
U.K.

Quote
Dave Throup (@DaveThroupEA) 2/17/20, 3:55 PM
I’ve seen things today I would not have believed.
Large parts of my home town and village are underwater tonight.
This is not normal flooding, we are in uncharted territory.
So sorry for everyone who has flooded.
Back tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/davethroupea/status/1229509808262451201
Images below; others at the link.

Quote
Matt Dobson (@supercell_1996) 2/17/20, 5:17 PM
For the benefit of those less familiar with #Worcester, here's a Google Maps image vs one of Dave Grubb's images for comparison, showing the extent of the flood water vs a normal scene. Incredible extent of flooding, but the extent of the flooding into Powick is most unusual.
https://twitter.com/supercell_1996/status/1229530282023358464
Image below.

Quote
David Sutton (@djsut) 2/17/20, 3:08 AM
The scene from the train in to Foregate Street this morning
https://twitter.com/djsut/status/1229316680255492097
Brief video.

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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #26 on: February 18, 2020, 05:13:52 PM »

start at time 0:35

Massive Two-Tiered A380 Jet Makes 'White-Knuckle' ‘Crab’ Landing at Heathrow During Storm Dennis
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blumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #27 on: February 18, 2020, 05:41:31 PM »
Holy crab!  :o
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #28 on: February 21, 2020, 12:54:48 PM »
A Channel 4 News report from what used to be the streets of Pontypridd in South Wales:



Quote
Have a look at that mountainside

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