Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Hurricane Season 2020  (Read 45568 times)

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 487
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 201
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #250 on: August 27, 2020, 01:31:41 AM »
NOAA #24 first eye pass found it is just at the cusp of cat 5, 937mb extrapolated surface pressure.  Seeing 170mph on radar

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#NOAA22413ALAURA

I am not a scientist

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 487
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 201
  • Likes Given: 77
I am not a scientist

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1704
  • None but ourselves can free our minds...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 531
  • Likes Given: 772
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #252 on: August 27, 2020, 01:58:28 AM »
Only 6 mph away from cat 5 status.
And so we pray...

When factual science is in conflict with our beliefs, we cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything starts making sense again...

sark

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 487
  • not a scientist
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 201
  • Likes Given: 77
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #253 on: August 27, 2020, 02:41:34 AM »
data from NOAA2's microwave sounder thingy is flagged but was 137 knots.  FL winds 141kt

everything looks like it is still intensifying and is probably pushing through cat 5 right now

https://tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#NOAA22413ALAURA
I am not a scientist

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4775
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2568
  • Likes Given: 369
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #254 on: August 27, 2020, 03:18:50 AM »
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/weather/laura-is-close-to-becoming-a-category-5-storm-hurricane-update/ar-BB18oKP0

With winds of 150 miles (241 kilometers) per hour, Laura is just 7 mph short of the most powerful storm category possible, and it’s matching the previous record breaker Lost Island Hurricane of 1856. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight before Laura reaches the northwest U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast overnight, the National Hurricane Center said. It’s coming with more power than Hurricane Harvey had when it made landfall in Texas in 2017.

The stretch of coastline that will feel Laura’s impact accounts for about a quarter of U.S. oil refining capacity and half of North America’s production of ethylene, a key plastic raw material, according to Independent Commodity Intelligence Services, not to mention newly built liquefied natural gas export terminals. The rapid growth of petrochemical facilities over the past decade, fueled by the U.S. shale boom, has raised the potential for fatalities, as well as vast financial and environmental damage.

The storm could cause as much as $25 billion in damage and economic losses, Watson said. The destruction to refineries could cost $5 billion alone.

One major concern is that violent wind and storm surge could inundate Superfund sites, dislodging contaminated soil and spreading toxic deposits throughout the nearby communities.

About 64 crude oil and refined product tankers are in the western U.S. Gulf waiting on Hurricane Laura to pass, according to ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 668
  • Likes Given: 472
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #255 on: August 27, 2020, 03:42:22 AM »
150 mph winds at 7 pm Central Daylight Time.  5 mph between this and a Cat 5, and about 5 hours to landfall from then.  :'(

The last US mainland Cat 5 strike was 2018's Michael (in my neck of the woods, almost).  Before that, the 1992 Andrew (Miami-Dade County, Florida) and 1969 Camille (Louisiana & Mississippi).  My mom might remember hearing about the 1935 Labor Day hurricane in the Florida Keys.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

wdmn

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 550
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 228
  • Likes Given: 166
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #256 on: August 27, 2020, 04:11:43 AM »
Tropical Storm Hanna looks like it's going to pull a rapid escalation to hurricane status before making landfall in Texas. The advisory this morning (as well as all previous) still had it making landfall as a tropical storm. Seems like the models are still having trouble with the sometimes explosive development of these storms.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

Models continue having problems over high SST anomaly waters.

Rodius

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 464
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 302
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #257 on: August 27, 2020, 05:46:55 AM »
Tropical Storm Hanna looks like it's going to pull a rapid escalation to hurricane status before making landfall in Texas. The advisory this morning (as well as all previous) still had it making landfall as a tropical storm. Seems like the models are still having trouble with the sometimes explosive development of these storms.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

Models continue having problems over high SST anomaly waters.

Given sudden excalation appears to be happen far more often in recent years, I wonder if the rules the models use need updating... actually, this is obviously the case... but it also means that the models, in terms of sudden escalation, cant be relied on in that respect.

The research isn't keeping up with the changes.......

pearscot

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 343
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 157
  • Likes Given: 60
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #258 on: August 27, 2020, 06:32:58 AM »
Just before landfall; as powerful as ever!
pls!

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4756
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 511
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #259 on: August 27, 2020, 08:33:49 AM »
Landfall at 150 mph according to the NHC:

Quote
100 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LAURA MAKES LANDFALL
NEAR CAMERON LOUISIANA...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 93.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM E OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES

Plus the associated power outages have begun:

https://twitter.com/V2gUK/status/1298686190967820292

Quote
There are 109,811 outages across Louisiana at the moment.


Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

KiwiGriff

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 869
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 444
  • Likes Given: 158
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #260 on: August 27, 2020, 08:51:32 AM »
Watching some guy in a parking garage in lake Charles live stream on you tube.
145mile an hour winds  .

Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

Archimid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3299
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 836
  • Likes Given: 204
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #261 on: August 27, 2020, 11:39:33 AM »
145 mph. At that speed the ground shakes. Everything around you vibrates. Your ears ring. The level on the toilet bowl goes up and down. Everything is damp and dark. Your senses at maximum alert for hours. It is very disorienting.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4190
  • Earth will survive AGW...but will Homo sapiens?
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 658
  • Likes Given: 509
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #262 on: August 27, 2020, 12:29:48 PM »
Talked to my guardian today.
His daughter dodged a bullet...it hit northeast of her.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 779
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 683
  • Likes Given: 393
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #263 on: August 27, 2020, 03:23:37 PM »
Greg Postel
Quote
Early reports suggest storm surge flooding thankfully wasn't nearly as high as some prior projections ... waiting on more data

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10095
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3892
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #264 on: August 27, 2020, 05:35:49 PM »
It seems that Hurricane Laura is part of a trend that can only cease when the oceans stop warming.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/bams/article/101/8/E1301/346683/Continued-Increases-in-the-Intensity-of-Strong
OTHER| 20 AUGUST 2020
Continued Increases in the Intensity of Strong Tropical Cyclones
James B. Elsner

Quote
Abstract
In a 2008 paper, using satellite-derived wind speed estimates from tropical cyclones over the 25-yr period 1981–2006, we showed the strongest tropical cyclones getting stronger. We related the increasing intensity to rising ocean temperatures consistent with theory. Oceans have continued to warm since that paper was published, so the intensity of the strongest cyclones should have continued upward as well. Here I show that this is the case, with increases in the upper-quantile intensities of global tropical cyclones amounting to between 3.5% and 4.5% in the period 2007–19 relative to the earlier base period (1981–2006). All basins individually show upward intensity trends for at least one upper quantile considered, with the North Atlantic and western North Pacific basins showing the steepest and most consistent trends across the quantiles.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4775
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2568
  • Likes Given: 369
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #265 on: August 27, 2020, 10:44:10 PM »
Lake Charles Chemicals Plant On Fire In Wake Of Hurricane Laura
https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2020/08/27/louisiana-chemicals-plant-on-fire-in-wake-of-hurricane-laura/amp/

... The plant on fire is confirmed by company representatives to be owned by BioLab, a subsidiary of privately held KIKCorp. It has historically manufactured chlorine-based products including toilet bowl tablets, chlorinating granules and biocides. According to eyewitness videos, thick smoke is billowing north across Interstate-10.

According to 2019 Louisiana state environmental regulatory documents, the BioLab site produces 115 million pounds per year of trichloroisocyanuric acid and disodium isocyanurate, biocides and disinfectants.

On the same grounds as the BioLab site, according to regulatory documents is a plant operated by Lonza Group, which manufactures dimethyl hydrazine (a rocket propellant) for the U.S. government.

[... Combine the 2 and you can do a reenactment of the chlorine gas attack against French troops at Ypres, Belgium during WWI]

The plant is already considered to be a major emitter of air pollutants including sulfur dioxide and volatile organic compounds.

According to eyewitness videos, thick smoke is billowing north across Interstate-10. People were told to shelter-in-place.



---------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

longwalks1

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 156
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 55
  • Likes Given: 12
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #266 on: August 27, 2020, 11:43:41 PM »
The old Cat6 is now Eye of the Storm    on Yale Climate Connections.  I guess IBM couldn't handle "The Weather" Channel with Cat6 associated with it.   

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/climate-change-is-causing-more-rapid-intensification-of-atlantic-hurricanes/

Quote
Rapidly intensifying storms like Hurricanes Laura, Michael, and Harvey are dangerous because they can catch forecasters and the public off guard.
By Jeff Masters, Ph.D. | Thursday, August 27, 2020

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4756
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 511
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #267 on: August 28, 2020, 02:34:59 PM »
There's still around 800,000 power outages courtesy of Laura:

https://V2G.co.uk/2020/08/marco-and-laura-gang-up-on-gulf-coast/#Aug-28-08Z
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

harpy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 367
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 103
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #268 on: August 28, 2020, 04:26:29 PM »
145 mph. At that speed the ground shakes. Everything around you vibrates. Your ears ring. The level on the toilet bowl goes up and down. Everything is damp and dark. Your senses at maximum alert for hours. It is very disorienting.

That sounds exhilarating.


gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10095
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3892
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #269 on: August 28, 2020, 04:42:43 PM »
N.W Pacific

Looks like Tropical Storm Maysak is doing a copycat of typhoon Bavi.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4775
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2568
  • Likes Given: 369
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #270 on: August 29, 2020, 05:06:25 PM »
Lake Charles during Laura landfall...



« Last Edit: August 29, 2020, 05:27:44 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10095
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3892
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #271 on: August 31, 2020, 02:54:30 PM »
Looks like Korea gets walloped by Typhoon Maysak Wednesday / Thursday.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1020.gif
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4756
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 511
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #272 on: August 31, 2020, 05:09:20 PM »
A feeling of déjà vu in the North Atlantic too?
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2411
  • 0Kg CO₂, 37 KWh/wk,125L H₂O/wk, No offspring
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 305
  • Likes Given: 20410
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #273 on: August 31, 2020, 06:19:07 PM »
Thanks for the updates mates.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Alexander555

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1305
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 150
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #274 on: August 31, 2020, 08:05:27 PM »
And just after maysak they get this one in Japan.

Jeju-islander

  • New ice
  • Posts: 16
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #275 on: September 01, 2020, 04:12:15 PM »
Typhoon Maysak is currently a category 4. storm. Lowest pressure 935hPa. It's 260 km NW of Okinawa.
It's next brush past land is as it passes by the east coast of Jeju Island in 18 hours time.
From there it is predicted to continue on an almost direct hit with the city of Busan on the Korean mainland.

Jeju Island  gets multiple typhoons brushing past each year. Some veer to the west as typhoon Bavi did last week, and some veer to the east as Maysak is expected to do tomorrow. Damage here is usually relatively low, despite huge rainfall on the mountain. For example last Wednesday there was over 500mm of rain.

The potential for damage to the city of Busan is far greater even though the storm is expected to weaken before landfall. - Typhoon Maysak could become one of South Korea's strongest typhoons on record
The track and scale of this typhoon is similar to the 2003 typhoon Maemi. The damage report for that storm is here - Guy Carpenter. Typhoon Maemi Loss Report 2003 (PDF) (Report).

Here's a graphic showing the Pacific typhoons so far this year 2020, and for last year 2019. Jeju Island is south of the Korean mainland.





graphics from Wikipedia - 2020 Pacific typhoon season and Wikipedia - 2019 Pacific typhoon season
« Last Edit: September 01, 2020, 04:52:46 PM by Jeju-islander »

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4756
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 511
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #276 on: September 02, 2020, 02:06:28 PM »
Meanwhile two more named storms have popped up in the North Atlantic arena:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Rodius

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 464
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 302
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #277 on: September 02, 2020, 03:04:23 PM »
Meanwhile two more named storms have popped up in the North Atlantic arena:


They are going to run out of names.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4190
  • Earth will survive AGW...but will Homo sapiens?
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 658
  • Likes Given: 509
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #278 on: September 02, 2020, 03:48:20 PM »
Meanwhile two more named storms have popped up in the North Atlantic arena:


They are going to run out of names.
Did that once before. They went to Greek letters.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 668
  • Likes Given: 472
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #279 on: September 02, 2020, 05:04:20 PM »
I wonder if they would ever 'retire' a Greek letter...  :-\

Hmmm... If Hurricane Beta took out a small coastal city, would people muse, "That was the Beta; wait until the working version comes out!"  :o
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

nanning

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2411
  • 0Kg CO₂, 37 KWh/wk,125L H₂O/wk, No offspring
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 305
  • Likes Given: 20410
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #280 on: September 02, 2020, 05:21:43 PM »
Hurricane Omegad  :'(
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Jim Hunt

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4756
  • Stay Home, Save Lives
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 511
  • Likes Given: 44
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #281 on: September 03, 2020, 08:34:59 AM »
Hurricane Nana makes landfall in Belize:

Quote
NANA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF BELIZE BETWEEN DANGRIGA AND PLACENCIA... As of 1:00 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 the center of Nana was located near 16.8, -88.3 with movement WSW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4775
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2568
  • Likes Given: 369
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #282 on: September 03, 2020, 03:58:31 PM »
43 Missing After Cargo Ship Sinks in Typhoon Near Japan
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/09/03/asia/typhoon-maysak-cargo-ship-missing-japan-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

A lone Filipino sailor has been rescued from the dark waters of the Pacific Ocean after a cargo ship carrying 5800 cattle with 43 people aboard went missing during Typhoon Maysak, according to the Japan Coast Guard.

The Gulf Livestock 1 transmitted a distress signal early Wednesday when it was about 185 kilometers (115 miles) west of Amami Oshima island, about midway between Okinawa and Kyushu, Japan's southernmost main island.

The area in the East China Sea was being battered by the powerful typhoon, equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane with winds of at least 130 mph, at the time the ship went missing.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 10095
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3892
  • Likes Given: 31
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #283 on: September 03, 2020, 05:10:07 PM »
And after Maysak along comes Typhoon Haishen
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Jeju-islander

  • New ice
  • Posts: 16
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 10
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #284 on: September 03, 2020, 06:16:42 PM »
Here in Jeju some places on the mountain had over 1000mm of rain over the last two days.
It was wet and windy, but no substantial damage here.
The next one (Haishen) due on Monday morning is forecast to be even stronger.

The mountain road near me became impassable for a while.

« Last Edit: September 04, 2020, 08:02:35 AM by Jeju-islander »

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4775
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2568
  • Likes Given: 369
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #285 on: September 04, 2020, 12:21:59 AM »
Russian Floating Dry Dock Smacks Into Ships And Submarines At Naval Base During Typhoon Maysak
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/36171/typhoon-sends-russian-floating-dry-dock-smacking-into-ships-and-submarines-at-naval-base

High winds from Typhoon Maysak caused a floating dry dock to break free of its moorings at Russia's Vostochny Verf shipyard in the country's far eastern port city of Vladivostok. Once free, it drifted into a number of ships and submarines belonging to the Russian Navy's Pacific Fleet, causing untold damage.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NavyLookout/status/1301536636459679746

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1301525604072857600

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1301526388420349952





The imagery that has emerged on social media so far shows a particularly dramatic collision between it and a cluster of moored Project 1241.1 Molniya class missile corvettes. These ships each displace just under 550 tons with a full load and can carry up to 16 Kh-35 Uran anti-ship cruise missiles as their primary armament. The Russian Navy's Pacific Fleet has had around 11 of these ships.

A Kilo class attack submarine was also reportedly struck as the dock went floating along. The Russian Pacific fleet has six of these boats.

The extent the damage remains unclear, but this is just the latest in a string of calamities to befall the Russian Navy in recent years. In 2018, a fire broke out on a Kilo class submarine in Vladivostok. Russia later claimed had just been an exercise, but this seems highly improbable and the exact circumstances surrounding that incident remain unclear.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/17853/fire-at-russias-vladivostok-submarine-base-sure-doesnt-look-like-an-exercise

Also in 2018, PD-50, the Russian Navy's largest floating dry dock sunk at the 82nd Shipbuilding Plant at Roslyakovo near Murmansk after an apparent electrical malfunction that caused its ballast tanks to get stuck in the open position. Russia's sole aircraft carrier, the Admiral Kuznetsov, was inside at the time, undergoing a major overhaul. A fire on Kuznetsov last year, which reportedly caused 350 million Rubles worth of damage, more than $4.6 million at the present rate exchange, further called into question when and if the ship will return to service.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 779
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 683
  • Likes Given: 393
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #286 on: September 04, 2020, 05:21:56 AM »
Maysak brought rarely strong wind to Vladivostok.

The Atlantic Ocean generates a lot of storms this year. 6 names left in the list.

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 779
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 683
  • Likes Given: 393
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #287 on: September 04, 2020, 04:56:54 PM »

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4775
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2568
  • Likes Given: 369
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #288 on: September 05, 2020, 02:24:21 AM »
NASA’s Impressive New AI Can Predict When a Hurricane Intensifies
https://thenextweb.com/neural/2020/09/03/nasas-impressive-new-ai-can-predict-when-a-hurricane-intensifies/

Scientists at the NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California developed the system after searching through years of satellite data.

They discovered three strong signals that a hurricane will become more severe: abundant rainfall inside the storm‘s inner core; the amount of ice water in the clouds within the tropical cyclone; and the temperature of the air flowing away from the eye of the hurricane.

The team then used IBM Watson Studio to build a model that analyzes all these factors, as well as those already used by the National Hurricane Center, a US government agency that monitors hazardous tropical weather.

The researchers trained the model to detect when a hurricane will undergo rapid intensification — which happens when wind speeds increase by 56 kmph or more within 24 hours — on storms that swept across the US between 1998 and 2008. They then tested it on a separate set of storms that hit the country from 2009 to 2014. Finally, they compared the system’s forecasts to the model used by the National Hurricane Center for the latter set of storms.

The team says their model was 60% more likely to predict a hurricane’s winds would increase by at least 56 kmph within 24 hours. But for hurricanes whose winds shot up by at least 64 kmph, the new system had a 200% higher chance of detecting these events.

The team is now testing the model on storms during the current hurricane season. If that proves successful, it could help minimize the loss of life and property caused when future tropical cyclones hit.

Applying Satellite Observations of Tropical Cyclone Internal Structures to Rapid Intensification Forecast With Machine Learning  , Geophysical Research Letters, 2020
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020GL089102
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 779
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 683
  • Likes Given: 393
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #289 on: September 07, 2020, 05:14:15 PM »
Tropical storm PAULETTE
Quote
Paulette is the 16th named storm of the 2020
Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the earliest 16th named storm
of any Atlantic season by 10 days. The previous record was Philippe,
which formed on September 17, 2005.

Another one is already formed into a depression and should be named next hours.

Tom_Mazanec

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4190
  • Earth will survive AGW...but will Homo sapiens?
    • View Profile
    • Planet Mazanec
  • Liked: 658
  • Likes Given: 509
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #290 on: September 07, 2020, 06:40:41 PM »
The remaining names are Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vickey and Wilfred.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 668
  • Likes Given: 472
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #291 on: September 07, 2020, 08:15:32 PM »
And Tropical Depression 18 is expected to become a tropical storm later today.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

Tor Bejnar

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3809
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 668
  • Likes Given: 472
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #292 on: September 08, 2020, 06:34:36 AM »
Quote
Rene ... is the
earliest 17th named storm of any Atlantic season by 11 days. The
previous record was Rita, which formed on September 18, 2005.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2020/al18/al182020.discus.003.shtml?
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

The Walrus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 874
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 117
  • Likes Given: 78
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #293 on: September 10, 2020, 05:36:24 PM »
With regards to the ACE metric, the North Atlantic is almost exactly average this year.

http://climatlas.com/tropical/

Aluminium

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 779
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 683
  • Likes Given: 393
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #294 on: September 10, 2020, 06:53:39 PM »
NHC has some work this week.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4775
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2568
  • Likes Given: 369
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #295 on: September 11, 2020, 01:36:02 AM »
It’s the Peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and the Tropics are Bonkers
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/09/its-the-peak-of-the-atlantic-hurricane-season-and-the-tropics-are-bonkers/

... This afternoon's deterministic run of the European model shows the interaction of multiple systems subjecting themselves to the Fujiwhara effect next week. This highest-resolution version of the model, for what it's worth, shows a stronger African wave that turns north fairly early. ...



Watching Four (maybe more?) Tropical Systems in the Atlantic
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2020/09/08/watching-four-maybe-more-tropical-systems-in-the-atlantic/





... lot of tropical moisture heading towards Greenland in 2 weeks
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

The Walrus

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 874
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 117
  • Likes Given: 78
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #296 on: September 11, 2020, 03:43:52 PM »
Tons of uncertainty in that GFS model, as forecasts vary wildly.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4775
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2568
  • Likes Given: 369
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #297 on: September 12, 2020, 05:41:33 PM »
Tropical Storm Watch Issued For the Florida Panhandle as Tropical Depression Enters the Gulf
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-09-11-disturbance-tropical-depression-gulf-of-mexico-florida

Tropical Depression 19 is moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Florida and the Gulf Coast through the weekend and into next week.



The system will arrive on the northern Gulf Coast in the first half of next week as a high-end tropical storm or low-end hurricane, but exactly when and where that occurs is uncertain.

---------------------------------

... stay safe Tor
« Last Edit: September 12, 2020, 07:52:21 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

wdmn

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 550
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 228
  • Likes Given: 166
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #298 on: September 12, 2020, 07:40:15 PM »
HRWF now forecasting possible cat 3/4 at landfall...

https://twitter.com/climateguyw/status/1304834379273981952

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4775
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 2568
  • Likes Given: 369
Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #299 on: September 12, 2020, 07:47:10 PM »
^
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late