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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #400 on: November 03, 2020, 08:57:50 AM »
Eta from GOES-E at 07:30 UTC
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #401 on: November 03, 2020, 01:12:16 PM »
Eta from GOES-E at 07:30 UTC
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/030854.shtml?
Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves
onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this morning. 
Tropical-storm-force or greater winds are already occuring within
the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua.  A Tropical Storm Warning
is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras. 

2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall.  Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above
normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.

Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain.  Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #402 on: November 06, 2020, 12:26:16 AM »



... It's still coming!
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #403 on: November 07, 2020, 05:44:23 PM »
Eta has had quite an odd journey.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #404 on: November 07, 2020, 05:47:27 PM »
Tor has a tracker beacon in his pocket and Eta is homing in on it.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #405 on: November 07, 2020, 06:23:08 PM »
And here I've been saying the reason so many storms went to Louisiana was that someone, obviously, was sinning there.  "Splinters in another's eye," I guess.  :'(  :-[  :o
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #406 on: November 08, 2020, 04:36:04 PM »
HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...

...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #407 on: November 08, 2020, 06:24:11 PM »
And where will Eta end up?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/081500.shtml?
Quote
The complex interaction between these two features is
forecast to continue through 72 hours, resulting in the development
of weak steering currents and Eta slowing down and possibly
stalling near or just west of the Florida Keys by day 3.

Thereafter, the global and regional models show widely varying
solutions ranging from
- a motion toward the south or southwest (UKMET) toward Yucatan,
- to slow northward (ECMWF) or
- northeastward motion (GFS/HWRF) over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #408 on: November 09, 2020, 04:41:44 AM »
Unless that sinner in NOLA that Tor mentioned has mended their ways, I imagine ETA will soon settle on a course for the Louisiana coast.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #409 on: November 09, 2020, 06:39:42 PM »
Meanwhile the Philippines are going to get another whallop
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

crandles

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #410 on: November 10, 2020, 11:00:59 PM »
Theta becomes tropical, the 29th tropical storm of the season beating 2005 record of 28. (Though 2005 was much worse in many other ways.)

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #411 on: November 11, 2020, 12:03:42 AM »
Might become a Medicane

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #412 on: November 11, 2020, 06:54:38 PM »
Climate Change Causes Landfalling Hurricanes to Stay Stronger for Longer
https://phys.org/news/2020-11-climate-landfalling-hurricanes-stronger-longer.html


(Left) The graph shows that on average, present-day hurricanes weaken more slowly than hurricanes did 50 years ago. (Right) This slowing of intensity means that on average, present-day hurricanes are penetrating further inland at greater intensities. The graph assumes that the hurricanes are hitting land head-on and move forward at a typical speed of 5 meters per second. Credit: OIST

... Many studies have shown that climate change can intensify hurricanes—known as cyclones or typhoons in other regions of the world—over the open ocean. But this is the first study to establish a clear link between a warming climate and the smaller subset of hurricanes that have made landfall.

The scientists analyzed North Atlantic hurricanes that made landfall over the past half a century. They found that during the course of the first day after landfall, hurricanes weakened almost twice as slowly now than they did 50 years ago.

... The researchers found that even though each simulated hurricane made landfall at the same intensity, the ones that developed over warmer waters took more time to weaken.



"These simulations proved what our analysis of past hurricanes had suggested: warmer oceans significantly impact the rate that hurricanes decay, even when their connection with the ocean's surface is severed. The question is why," said Prof. Chakraborty.

Using additional simulations, the scientists found that "stored moisture" was the missing link.

The researchers explained that when hurricanes make landfall, even though they can no longer access the ocean's supply of moisture, they still carry a stock of moisture that slowly depletes.

When the scientists created virtual hurricanes that lacked this stored moisture after hitting land, they found that the sea surface temperature no longer had any impact on the rate of decay.

"This shows that stored moisture is the key factor that gives each hurricane in the simulation its own unique identity," said Li. "Hurricanes that develop over warmer oceans can take up and store more moisture, which sustains them for longer and prevents them from weakening as quickly."

The increased level of stored moisture also makes hurricanes "wetter"—an outcome already being felt as recent hurricanes have unleashed devastatingly high volumes of rainfall on coastal and inland communities.

... "Current models of hurricane decay don't consider moisture—they just view hurricanes that have made landfall as a dry vortex that rubs against the land and is slowed down by friction. Our work shows these models are incomplete, which is why this clear signature of climate change wasn't previously captured," said Li.

"Overall, the implications of this work are stark. If we don't curb global warming, landfalling hurricanes will continue to weaken more slowly. Their destruction will no longer be confined to coastal areas, causing higher levels of economic damage and costing more lives."

Li et al., Slower decay of landfalling hurricanes in a warming world. Nature (2020)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2867-7
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #413 on: November 11, 2020, 07:05:34 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #414 on: November 13, 2020, 10:50:26 PM »
"Hurricane Iota expected to form by Sunday; likely to cause catastrophic rains in Nicaragua and HondurasTwenty to 30 inches of rain is predicted for the region, where the devastating Hurricane Eta made landfall just 10 days ago."

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/11/hurricane-iota-expected-to-form-by-sunday/

"The intensity forecast from the National Hurricane Center’s first advisory for TD 31 at 10 a.m. EST Friday was an unusually aggressive one, calling for the storm to intensify from 35 mph to 110 mph – to the brink of category 3 status – in just 72 hours. According to an analysis of NHC forecasts by Sam Lillo, this is the fastest rapid intensification ever predicted by NHC for a tropical depression. Senior NHC hurricane specialist Eric Blake commented in a Friday morning Tweet, “You don’t see NHC forecast 75 mph of strengthening in 72 hours from a tropical depression very often (rapid intensification for that time period, and on a first forecast, too). Speaks to the really conducive environment ahead!”"

Latest NHC forecasts officialise the formation of tropical storm Iota at 40mph sustained wind and forecasts it as a category 3 in 72 hours with 120 mph sustained wind, just incredible in November, what are the odds to get two successive major hurricanes at this stage of the hurricane season without climate change??? and over the same track?
« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 10:59:45 PM by bluesky »

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #415 on: November 13, 2020, 11:33:25 PM »
^ That's incredible! ...



Like the Gulf getting hit six times
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Bernard

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #416 on: November 13, 2020, 11:58:29 PM »
Might become a Medicane (Theta)

Theta is actually steadily weakening while drifting slowly Eastwards. It's just been a bit of fun yesterday for the leader skippers of the Vendée-Globe race ... and many of the 700,000+ "Virtual Regatta" skippers. Being one of the latter, and well behind, I struggle to reach Theta soon enough to get a taste of it. Was stuck all day East of Azores, with 2 knots of wind :-(

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #417 on: November 15, 2020, 06:56:40 PM »
"hurricane Iota overnight intensified into a formidable hurricane over the waters of the southwest Caribbean, and is expected to continue to rapidly intensify Sunday though Monday, becoming a catastrophic major hurricane that will make landfall near the Nicaragua/Honduras border on Monday night. Iota will likely bring catastrophic rains of 8-16 inches, with isolated amounts of 20-30 inches, to portions of Central America still recovering from devastating Hurricane Eta, which hit northern Nicaragua as a category 4 storm with 140 mph winds on November 3.

Jeff Ernst, a freelance journalist based in Honduras who’s covering the hurricanes and their aftermath on the ground for The Guardian and other outlets, expressed in an email his concerns that that nation is unprepared for another megastorm like Iota. “I’m worried that many levees have been destroyed, dams are at capacity, and there is still a lot of standing water that’s up to the rooftops in spots,” he wrote. “I would think because of those factors it would take less water than during Hurricane Eta to do as much or more damage – though Iota will flood some of the places that are already destroyed.” Damage estimates for Eta’s impact on Honduras are as high as $5 billion – over 20% of the nation’s GDP.

Ernst wrote a Sunday morning article in The Guardian on the threat climate change poses to Central America, including the potential for more severe hurricanes."

"Iota is the tenth 2020 Atlantic named storm to rapidly intensify by at least 35 mph in 24 hours; six out of the last seven “Greek” named storms have rapidly intensified, with only Theta missing the mark"
"According to statistics compiled by Tomer Berg, only in 1995 had 10 rapidly intensifying Atlantic storms occurred in a single year.

Iota is the 13th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, putting this year behind only 2005, which had 15 hurricanes, for most hurricanes in a season. If Iota becomes a major hurricane, 2020 would be the first Atlantic hurricane season ever to record two major hurricanes in November. Hurricane Eta was the other major hurricane of November."

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/11/hurricane-iota-rapidly-intensifies-ahead-of-expected-landfall-near-nicaragua-honduras-border/

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #418 on: November 15, 2020, 07:24:10 PM »
"“In a 36-hour period [Eta] went from a depression to a very strong category 4,” said Bob Bunting, CEO of the non-profit Climate Adaptation Center. “That is just not normal. Probably it was the fastest spin up from a depression to a major hurricane in history.”

The evidence of the influence of the climate crisis is not so much in the record-breaking 30 tropical storms in the Atlantic so far this year, but the strength, rapid intensification and total rainfall of these weather systems.

“The warmer ocean waters that climate change brings are expected to make the stronger storms stronger and make them rapidly intensify more frequently and at a greater rate,” said Dr Jeff Masters, a meteorologist and contributor to Yale Climate Connections. “These things have already been observed, particularly in the Atlantic, and it’s going to be increasingly so in coming decades.”

Central America has been one of the regions most affected by the climate crisis to date, first with Hurricane Mitch, and in recent years with more extreme weather patterns, particularly in what’s known as the dry corridor, which extends from northern Costa Rica all the way to southern Mexico.

“Heat is energy,” said Masters. “Depending on the prevailing weather conditions you’re going to intensify those conditions.”
In the dry corridor, that has meant more frequent, prolonged and intense droughts as well as heavier rainfall when it does come, often causing flash flooding that washes away crops.

Subsistence farmers in the region have struggled to adapt to the new reality, and many in the region have simply given up and left. The climate crisis – and the hunger it brings – is increasingly being recognized as a major driver of emigration from the region.

“I don’t see a lot of options for Central America to deal with the global warming issue,” said Masters. “There are going to be a lot migrants and in fact, a lot of the migration that’s already happening in recent years is due to the drought that started affecting Central America back in 2015.”

"Hondurans migrated to the US in significant numbers for the first time following Hurricane Mitch. In the year before the Covid-19 pandemic, more than 250,000 Hondurans were apprehended at the US south-west border, more than double any previous year and surpassed only by its neighbor to the north, Guatemala.

According to the Red Cross, at least 2.5 million people were affected by Hurricane Eta, including 1.7 million in Honduras. Many who have lost everything are already considering or making plans to migrate to the US and groups are beginning to organize caravans via social media."

Hurricane Iota could lead to even more widespread devastation across the region. Many areas still have high water levels from Eta, levees have been damaged or destroyed, dams are at or near capacity, and the saturated land could lead to more landslides like in Guatemala, where dozens are feared dead after part of a mountainside community was buried in mud.

The Atlantic hurricane season is expected to last until December this year, meaning that Iota might not be the last.

“When a season like 2020 keeps on cranking these things out, it’s going to keep on doing that,” said Masters."

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/15/scientists-link-record-breaking-hurricane-season-to-climate-crisis

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #419 on: November 16, 2020, 08:13:22 AM »
Iota is already a category 4 hurricane. Fourth major hurricane this year named with Greek letter.

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #420 on: November 16, 2020, 12:10:34 PM »
And latest NHC  forecast at  400 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020, mentioned that it could be the first ever category 5 in November with potential for 155mph sustained wind, while already a strong cat 4 with 145mph sustained wind.

"Iota has explosively deepened 26 mb during the past 6 hours and has rapidly intensified an incredible 35 kt during that same time."
"Furthermore, the pressure fell an amazing 10 mb from 945 mb down to 935 mb in a little over an hour" from latest NHC discussion bulletin.


Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #421 on: November 16, 2020, 04:10:36 PM »
Iota is officially cat 5. November 16. First cat 5 of the season. This year is strange.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #422 on: November 16, 2020, 04:59:05 PM »




Expected landfall is the same town that was hit with a Cat 4 last week.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #423 on: November 16, 2020, 05:35:18 PM »
A recent image of Iota from GOES-E
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pearscot

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #424 on: November 16, 2020, 05:51:35 PM »
It's wild to me how powerful Iota has become...really a record breaking hurricane. And following along the lines of all 2020 hurricanes, it looks like it will basically hit the exact same spot.
pls!

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #425 on: November 16, 2020, 06:46:55 PM »
... and mid November, the latest and strongest hurricane in November. There has been only one cat 5 hurricane in early November 1932, there has never been two major hurricane in November, and the way Iota has explosively intensified so late in the season is just beyond belief. It is going to be really disastrous in Nicaragua and Honduras two weeks after Iota.

bluesky

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #426 on: November 16, 2020, 07:23:11 PM »
Meteorologist Jack Carstens, has just twitted that this is the first time since 1851 (the start year of hurricane record) that there has been at least one category 5, 5 years in a row.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #427 on: November 17, 2020, 01:19:45 AM »
Hurricane Iota nears landfall in Central America as Category 5, humanitarian crisis looms
Quote
In 170 years of record keeping, Iota is just the second Category 5 hurricane on record during the month of November.

Hurricane Iota has gained speed and is now a 160 mph Category 5 storm just hours away from striking nearly the exact same part of Central America that Category 4 Hurricane Eta struck two weeks ago, according to an advisory Monday morning from the National Hurricane Center.

In 170 years of record keeping, Iota is just the second Category 5 hurricane on record during the month of November. The last one was the Cuba Hurricane of 1932.

While meteorologists hustled to put the rarity of Iota's strength for the month of November into perspective, it became clear that an imminent humanitarian catastrophe was likely coming for Nicaragua and Honduras.

These locations are still reeling after Hurricane Eta made landfall Nov. 3 as a Category 4 hurricane, causing loss of life and extreme destruction of property.

Iota is expected to make landfall Monday night as a Category 5 hurricane on the Nicaraguan coast.

The effects expected from hurricane Iota won't just be life-threatening, but in many cases also unsurvivable for anyone without proper shelter.

The storm surge is expected to be up to 15-20 feet along the immediate coastlines. Rainfall of up to 30 inches will result in deadly flash flooding, landslides, mudslides and river flooding.

The winds will be catastrophic with wind gusts approaching 200 mph in some locations.

All of this combined will lead to parts of the region being uninhabitable for weeks, if not months. ...
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/hurricane-iota-nears-landfall-central-america-category-5-humanitarian-crisis-n1247907
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #428 on: November 17, 2020, 02:35:30 AM »
Jeff Masters writes today in his “Eye on the Storm” blog:
Quote
...
If there is a bright side to this [about to happen Cat 5 Hurricane Iota] tragedy, it is that Iota will be hitting one of the most sparsely populated areas of the Central American coast. Nicaragua proved it could successfully evacuate its vulnerable population before Eta hit the same region two weeks ago, and the official death toll in the nation from Eta totaled two people. As Iota’s most extreme winds and storm surge will be affecting some of the same regions most severely affected by Eta, Iota is not considered likely to cause a great deal of additional damage, as these regions were already mostly destroyed.
...
[not yet formed - see orange area of interest] Tropical Storm Kappa may affect Central America late this week
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Juan C. García

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #429 on: November 19, 2020, 09:20:42 PM »
Quote
Slew of rapidly intensifying hurricanes portends trouble in a warming world
Ten storms rapidly intensified this Atlantic season, some to a record degree

It all started with Hurricane Hanna, which swirled in from the Gulf of Mexico to Padre Island, Tex., on July 25. Originally forecast to move into South Texas as a tropical storm, with the biggest threat being heavy rainfall, the storm instead intensified quickly, becoming a strong Category 1 hurricane just before landfall.

Forecasters didn’t know it at the time, but Hanna offered a preview of what was to come during the record-setting and destructive 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, as storm after storm underwent a process known to meteorologists as “rapid intensification,” in which storms gain strength extremely fast. This is an especially dangerous process when it occurs close to land, coming too suddenly for coastal residents to escape an exponentially potent storm.

The technical definition of rapid intensification is when a storm’s maximum sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph in 24 hours. This season, storm after storm outperformed this baseline. This includes Hurricane Iota, which intensified at the astonishing rate of 80 mph in 24 hours, before slamming into the coast of northeastern Nicaragua late Monday night.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/11/18/hurricane-season-rapid-intensification/
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #430 on: November 22, 2020, 09:58:51 AM »
Cyclone Gati in the Arabian Sea.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #431 on: November 23, 2020, 03:45:19 PM »
"Tropical Cyclone Gati has rapidly intensified from a 40kt tropical storm to 100kt category 3-equivalent cyclone in 6 hours, and currently making landfall in northeast Somalia. So this stuff is not only happening in the Atlantic.”
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1330550372017074177
➡️ Image at the link.

"Gati is the strongest tropical cyclone that has been recorded in this region of the globe; further south than any category 3-equivalent cyclone in the North Indian Ocean. And its intensification from 35kt to 100kt in 12 hours is the largest on record in the entire basin.”
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1330554977870200838
➡️ Images at the link.

"The region of Somalia where Tropical Cyclone Gati is making landfall is the driest part of the country, averaging less than 4 inches (100mm) of rain per year. Gati will bring rain of up to 200mm – two years worth of rainfall in just two days. A disaster.”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1330553073757016064

https://mobile.twitter.com/mikefischerwx/status/1330500180735561732
⬇️ Mean annual rainfall image below; others at the link.
« Last Edit: November 23, 2020, 03:50:34 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Juan C. García

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #432 on: December 05, 2020, 02:04:17 AM »
Quote
A look back at the horrific 2020 Atlantic hurricane season
Record after record fell as the 2020 season's storms brought fatalities, economic losses, and paralyzing damages throughout Central America and widespread parts of the Gulf of Mexico.

The 2020 season was notable not only for its record number of named storms (after breaking into the Greek alphabet by the ridiculously early date of September 18), but also for its record number of rapidly intensifying storms (10); and record number of landfalling U.S. named storms (12). Let’s not forget the record-breaking November activity – two catastrophic hurricanes hit Central America in November, including Hurricane Iota, the latest category 5 storm ever recorded in the Atlantic. At least seven hurricanes from 2020 will be worthy of having their names retired: Iota, Eta, Zeta, Delta, Sally, Laura, and Isaias – although there is still no official mechanism for retiring storm names from the Greek alphabet. The record for most names retired in one season was set in 2005, when five hurricanes had their names retired.

Figure 1. Every single mile of the U.S. Atlantic coast was under a watch or warning related to tropical cyclones at some point in 2020. (Image credit: National Weather Service, Corpus Christi)
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/12/a-look-back-at-the-horrific-2020-atlantic-hurricane-center/
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #433 on: December 05, 2020, 03:16:29 AM »
Since much of the season saw Arctic Ice in position #1 or #2, could this have been influenced by the open areas of water?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #434 on: December 05, 2020, 03:27:50 AM »
Since much of the season saw Arctic Ice in position #1 or #2, could this have been influenced by the open areas of water?

Hard to say if there was any influence at all.  With regards to hurricane intensity (ace), this year finished 11th.  The top 10 were not particularly noteworthy in arctic sea ice.  The top 5 are 1933, 2005, 1893, 1926, and 1995.

El Cid

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #435 on: December 05, 2020, 08:57:57 AM »
"The region of Somalia where Tropical Cyclone Gati is making landfall is the driest part of the country, averaging less than 4 inches (100mm) of rain per year. Gati will bring rain of up to 200mm – two years worth of rainfall in just two days. A disaster.”

It is a disaster (many people drown in desert areas during huge cyclones!!!) but it is the way hot, tropical deserts work. Often, one year of rainfall falls in a single day. That is the modus operandi there. That is why it is necessary to create various earthworks (swales, channels, dams, gabions, rock-walls, etc) so that you could use that rainfall. You need to store it in the ground and above the ground the best you can, to sustain life.

One account on how to do it (from saudi arabia):
https://www.permaculturenews.org/2011/01/14/permaculture-at-the-al-baydha-project-in-saudi-arabia-neal-spackman-video-1/

BTW, during the Holocene optimum and the Eemian, as far as we know the ITCZ pushed northwards during NH summer, bringing huge summer rains (a short rainy season) to most of Arabia and the Middle East, making it hospitable for human life (Fertile Crescent anyone?). As our world warms, they need to preapare for more like that.   

Reallybigbunny

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KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #437 on: December 17, 2020, 10:36:11 AM »
Cyclone Yasa: Category 5 cyclone hits Fiji causing landslides, flooding, 345kmh gusts, and 14-metre swells.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/south-pacific/123744953/cyclone-yasa-category-5-cyclone-hits-fiji-causing-landslides-flooding-345kmh-gusts-and-14metre-swells

This will be catastrophic.
My thoughts are for all my friends in the Fiji community and for any cruisers stuck there for cyclone season due to NZ boarders being closed. 

Global warming.

More energy = stronger storms.


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Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #438 on: December 17, 2020, 01:54:16 PM »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #439 on: December 17, 2020, 07:13:13 PM »
Thanks for the link, KG.
US Navy shows cyclone's path.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.