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be cause

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #50 on: May 15, 2020, 04:48:09 PM »
impressed by gfs having this in the forecast the last 5 days or so .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Phoenix

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #51 on: May 15, 2020, 10:06:18 PM »
How about a hurricane (tropical cyclone) season prediction contest to promote awareness of what's going on?

I'll throw out a straw man and see if anyone wants to play along. (My guess in parens)

1) # of Atlantic Basin hurricanes (10)

2) # of 2020 Major (Cat 4/5) Atlantic Basin hurricanes (4)

3) Lowest barometric pressure - Atlantic Basin (907 mbars)

4) # of Global Major tropical cyclones cat 4/5 (13)

5) City closest to largest US hurricane landfall (Wilmington, NC)

Scoring

Cat 1,2 & 4 - 25 points for exact score. Subtract 5 pts for each point difference between actual result and guess. Minimum score score zero.

Cat 3 - Same as above, except subtract 1 pt for difference between actual and guess.

Cat 5 - 25 pt Bonus for guessing location closest to largest US hurricane landfall (defined by highest sustained wind speed) landfall among the following locations

(Corpus Christi, New Orleans, Panama City, Tampa, Key West, West Palm Beach, Savannah, Charleston, Wilmington, NYC or NONE if you don't think a hurricane will make a US landfall)

Guesses in by May 31. 

Suggestions welcome. I confess a certain dislike for the Atlantic Basin bias vs. global, but they have the hurricane hunter aircraft giving more precise measures which would minimize measurement controversy.

pearscot

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #52 on: May 15, 2020, 10:48:56 PM »
I realize this is the hurricane and not typhoon thread - but the modeling is predicting a typhoon to form and eventually hit to the east of India. I will be watching this because the potential is certainly there.
 


In terms of how strong this year's Atlantic season will be - I'm expecting about 5 major, named storms. In general, the conditions appear to be aligning for a strong season, like that of 2005 with Wilma!
pls!

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #53 on: May 15, 2020, 11:03:00 PM »
Isn’t a typhoon just a hurricane somewhere else?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Phoenix

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #54 on: May 16, 2020, 12:38:52 AM »
Isn’t a typhoon just a hurricane somewhere else?

Just different regional names for a tropical cyclone. I think this thread is the natural place for all tropical cyclone discussion, regardless of title.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #55 on: May 16, 2020, 01:01:53 AM »
The US Navy does a good job of telling us about typhoons (Pacific North of the Equator) & cyclones (Pacific South) of the Equator https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

Invest 91B likely to hit North India or Bangladesh, which is just a series of deltas & already in deep trouble with sea level rise.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/io9120web.txt

WTIO21 PGTW 151000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.0N 86.3E TO 12.8N 85.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 150900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.4N 86.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5N 87.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 86.2E, APPROXIMATELY 602
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY AND A 150746Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSES INDICATE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 91B WILL TRACK NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT STRENGTHENS AND CONSOLIDATES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
161000Z.//
NNNN
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Lewis

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #56 on: May 16, 2020, 03:43:13 AM »
Isn’t a typhoon just a hurricane somewhere else?

Yup pretty much.

Hurricanes - North Atlantic Ocean and Northeast Pacific Ocean
Typhoon - Northwest Pacific Ocean
Cyclone - South Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean

KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #57 on: May 16, 2020, 07:13:41 AM »
Hurricanes - North Atlantic Ocean and Northeast Pacific Ocean
Typhoon - Northwest Pacific Ocean
Cyclone - South Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean

They are all correctly called Tropical Cyclones.
Quote
  A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system characterized by a low-pressure center, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain or squalls. Depending on its location and strength, a tropical cyclone is referred to by different names, including hurricane (/ˈhʌrɪkən, -keɪn/),[1][2][3] typhoon (/taɪˈfuːn/), tropical storm, cyclonic storm, tropical depression, and simply cyclone.[4] A hurricane is a tropical cyclone that occurs in the Atlantic Ocean and northeastern Pacific Ocean, and a typhoon occurs in the northwestern Pacific Ocean; in the south Pacific or Indian Ocean, comparable storms are referred to simply as "tropical cyclones" or "severe cyclonic storms".[4]

"Tropical" refers to the geographical origin of these systems, which form almost exclusively over tropical seas. "Cyclone" refers to their winds moving in a circle,[5] whirling round their central clear eye, with their winds blowing counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. The opposite direction of circulation is due to the Coriolis effect. Tropical cyclones typically form over large bodies of relatively warm water. They derive their energy through the evaporation of water from the ocean surface, which ultimately recondenses into clouds and rain when moist air rises and cools to saturation. 

My bad .
If this is  re posted  this next year it will hopefully be  under the more correct title tropical cyclones.
 
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kassy

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #58 on: May 16, 2020, 10:58:27 AM »
Isn’t a typhoon just a hurricane somewhere else?

Just different regional names for a tropical cyclone. I think this thread is the natural place for all tropical cyclone discussion, regardless of title.

Yes the older threads are also named Hurricane season and have all tropical cyclones.
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #59 on: May 16, 2020, 12:37:17 PM »
This one looks like its heading for Kolkata

REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 86.4E.
16MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 392 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 12 FEET. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
SHOWS A MONSOON DEPRESSION THAT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE,
CHARACTERIZED BY EXPANSIVE (OVER 600NM ACROSS) RAIN BANDS . THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI LOOP.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FR0M A 160309Z PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS AND CONSISTENT WITH NEARBY BUOY WIND OBSERVATIONS. TC 01B IS IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (31C) SSTS. THE CYCLONE WILL
TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST. BY TAU 48, THE TC WILL TRACK MORE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR  WEAKENS. VWS WILL INCREASE AS THE TC MOVES
POLEWARD, HOWEVER, STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW AND THE STORM MOTION BEING
IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL EASILY OFFSET THE VWS.
THIS, COMBINED WITH VERY WARM SST WILL PROMOTED STEADY
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90KTS. AFTERWARD, TC 01B WILL MAKE
LANDFALL JUST SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA AROUND TAU 96. LAND INTERACTION
WILL PRIMARILY CAUSE ITS RAPID DECAY AND BY TAU 120, WILL BE REDUCED
TO 30KTS AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE CYCLONE, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL TRACK FORECAST FROM JTWC. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #60 on: May 16, 2020, 11:10:39 PM »
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.


https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/162038.shtml

Quote
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST...

« Last Edit: May 17, 2020, 11:14:38 AM by Jim Hunt »
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be cause

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #61 on: May 17, 2020, 12:37:13 AM »
I hope Kulkata suffers less severely than Calcutta did in 1864 when a 40ft wall of water was driven into the city by an approaching cyclone .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

sidd

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #62 on: May 17, 2020, 06:29:02 AM »
I was at a farm near calcutta when the Bhola cyclone hit in 1970 and that was pretty letal. Coconut trees were bent parallel to the ground and the coconuts were coming off like cannonballs. if you were outside, impossible to stand or walk upright, had to bend double or crawl.

This ones looking like much closer to the city, and the city has grown a great deal. That farm i was at is now a hospital serving a suburb.

sidd

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #63 on: May 17, 2020, 11:15:51 AM »
A lot less lethal, but in the North Atlantic we have Tropical Storm Arthur:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #64 on: May 17, 2020, 11:39:01 AM »
Currently 01B Amphan is forecasted to have winds about 105 kt before landfall. It's weaker but not much weaker compared with Bhola.

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #65 on: May 17, 2020, 06:47:42 PM »
Looks like he will move from kolkata to Dhaka. And still pretty powerfull.

Phoenix

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #66 on: May 17, 2020, 07:34:18 PM »
Infrared gif of Amphan strengthening and developing an eye. Water temps are 31C. This storm could become a beast.
 
https://imgur.com/cX1J7RR

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #67 on: May 17, 2020, 10:31:22 PM »
Amphan rapidly intensified to category 4 SSHWS. And it's probably not a peak.

Phoenix

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #68 on: May 18, 2020, 01:57:25 AM »
The JTWC has this storm peaking at 125 kt sustained winds in 24 hours. My experience is that agency predictions like these have been very conservative. I won't be shocked if it approaches 150 kts.

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

Note, the deadliest cyclone in human history was Bhola in this region in 1970. Estimated 300k-500k lost.

Edit: imagine the stress on authorities tasked with trying to strike the right balance between both limiting covid spread and storm related suffering. This storm is looking very ominous.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2020, 02:39:11 AM by Phoenix »

Phoenix

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #69 on: May 18, 2020, 04:59:35 AM »
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/io0120web.txt

Highlights (no aircraft to verify, but this storm is approaching Cat 5 strength based upon Dvorak method).

180300Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 86.4E.

ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 10 NM ROUND EYE.

THE 130 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS JUST BELOW THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T7.0 (140 KTS) BASED ON LOWER CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES.

LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (31-32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE SUPPORT THE HIGH INTENSITY.

GENERALLY POLEWARD TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST.

THE INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY STRONG UNTIL
LANDFALL...WITH SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING VWS BEFORE LANDFALL.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #71 on: May 18, 2020, 10:56:59 AM »
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-05-16-tropical-cyclone-one-amphan-bay-of-bengal-india-bangladesh

The triangular shape of the Bay of Bengal acts to funnel storm-surge waters into Bangladesh, and the very shallow bottom of the bay allows the surge to pile up to very high heights. Thus, there is good reason to be concerned when a hurricane-strength tropical cyclone gets loose in the Bay of Bengal: Twenty-six of the 35 deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms, as seen in Weather Underground's list of the 35 Deadliest Tropical Cyclones in World History (note that since this list was published, research has found that the 1882 Great Bombay Cyclone, which supposedly killed 100,000 people, in reality never occurred). The big killer in all of the most deadly Bay of Bengal cyclones was the storm surge.

During the past two centuries, 42% of the Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh and 27% have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995). The deadliest storm in world history, the 1970 Bhola Cyclone of 1970, killed an estimated 300,000 to 500,000 when it made landfall in Bangladesh on Nov. 12, bringing a storm surge estimated at up to 10.4 meters (34 feet) to the coast.

Phoenix

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #72 on: May 18, 2020, 11:11:25 AM »
The JTWC 900Z has Amphan at 140 kts sustained winds, which I believe ties the record for the Bay of Bengal. That's just past the Cat 5 threshold.

Edit: The potential to somewhat dodge a bullet exists with increasing wind shear prior to landfall. Not sure how much that would diminish the gathering surge.
« Last Edit: May 18, 2020, 11:57:00 AM by Phoenix »

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #73 on: May 18, 2020, 01:11:44 PM »
The JTWC 900Z has Amphan at 140 kts sustained winds, which I believe ties the record for the Bay of Bengal. That's just past the Cat 5 threshold.

Edit: The potential to somewhat dodge a bullet exists with increasing wind shear prior to landfall. Not sure how much that would diminish the gathering surge.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 52
FEET.
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/io0120web.txt
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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blumenkraft

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #74 on: May 18, 2020, 01:29:05 PM »
OMG  :-[

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #75 on: May 18, 2020, 01:42:00 PM »
I guess, tides will not be low. Time of landfall is 2 days before new moon. Forecasts are impressive. Amphan may surpass all observed before in this region.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #77 on: May 18, 2020, 07:12:55 PM »
New forecast by IMD suggests a bit more intensification.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #78 on: May 18, 2020, 07:26:40 PM »
New forecast by IMD suggests a bit more intensification.
Another blow to the very vulnerable Sundarbans

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2019/07/sundarbans-mangrove-forest-in-bangladesh-india-threatened-by-rising-waters-illegal-logging/
This vanishing forest protects the coasts—and lives—of two countries
Rising waters and illicit logging are killing the trees in the Sundarbans, the natural wall that protects the India-Bangladesh coast.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=post;quote=236106;topic=2569.700
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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kassy

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #79 on: May 18, 2020, 08:11:24 PM »
That link just takes us back to here. Where should it go?
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #80 on: May 18, 2020, 10:24:35 PM »
Long-Term Data Show Hurricanes are Getting Stronger
https://phys.org/news/2020-05-long-term-hurricanes-stronger.html

In almost every region of the world where hurricanes form, their maximum sustained winds are getting stronger. That is according to a new study by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Center for Environmental Information and University of Wisconsin-Madison Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies, who analyzed nearly 40 years of hurricane satellite imagery.

"Through modeling and our understanding of atmospheric physics, the study agrees with what we would expect to see in a warming climate like ours," says James Kossin, a NOAA scientist based at UW-Madison and lead author of the paper, which is published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The research builds on Kossin's previous work, published in 2013, which identified trends in hurricane intensification across a 28-year data set. However, says Kossin, that timespan was less conclusive and required more hurricane case studies to demonstrate statistically significant results.

Kossin's previous research has shown other changes in hurricane behavior over the decades, such as where they travel and how fast they move. In 2014, he identified poleward migrations of hurricanes, where tropical cyclones are travelling farther north and south, exposing previously less-affected coastal populations to greater risk.

In 2018, he demonstrated that hurricanes are moving more slowly across land due to changes in Earth's climate. This has resulted in greater flood risks as storms hover over cities and other areas, often for extended periods of time.

James P. Kossin el al., "Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades," PNAS (2020).
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/05/12/1920849117
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #81 on: May 18, 2020, 11:43:49 PM »
Cyclone Amphan: More Than 1 Million To Be Evacuated In India, Bangladesh
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/05/18/Cyclone-Amphan-More-than-1-million-to-be-evacuated-in-India-Bangladesh/9891589822288/

May 18 (UPI) -- More than 1 million people at the India-Bangladesh border are preparing to evacuate before Super Cyclone Amphan, which is predicted to make landfall Wednesday evening.

The Indian Meteorological Department said Amphan, which developed in the Bay of Bengal, will reach wind speeds Monday of 167 miles per hour, and will arrive in the northeastern Indian states of Odisha and West Bengal and on the coast of Bangladesh, near the Ganges River Delta.

Meteorologists predicted Monday that the storm will lose some intensity as it hits land, but could cause storm surges as high as 30 feet.

SN Pradhan, director general of the Indian National Disaster Response Force, said that on top of the coronavirus epidemic, the cyclone presented a "dual challenge" to safely house evacuees while taking steps to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 virus.

Many migrant workers returning to Odisha and West Bengal for the national pandemic lockdown have been housed in temporary quarantine centers which are now in the path of the cyclone.

In Bangladesh, surges of high winds, rain and flooding from the cyclone are expected to strike the Cox's Bazar refugee settlement, where more than 1 million Rohingya refugees have gathered in primitive conditions after fleeing persecution in Myanmar.

https://weather.com/health/coronavirus/news/2020-05-17-rohingya-refugees-bangladesh-coronavirus-cases

Amphan is the first super cyclone in the Bay of Bengal since 1999, when a super storm hit the Orissa coast, killing more than 9,000 people.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #82 on: May 19, 2020, 12:25:42 AM »
Amphan has closed eye and weakened for a while, though I doubt that it reduces danger of the storm surge.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #83 on: May 19, 2020, 12:43:42 AM »
Eyewall replacement cycles, also called concentric eyewall cycles, naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones, generally with winds greater than 185 km/h (115 mph), or major hurricanes (Category 3 or above). When tropical cyclones reach this intensity, and the eyewall contracts or is already sufficiently small, some of the outer rainbands may strengthen and organize into a ring of thunderstorms—an outer eyewall—that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and angular momentum. Since the strongest winds are in a cyclone's eyewall, the tropical cyclone usually weakens during this phase, as the inner wall is "choked" by the outer wall. Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely, and the storm may re-intensify.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eyewall_replacement_cycle
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #84 on: May 19, 2020, 07:20:33 AM »
Amphan has closed eye and weakened for a while, though I doubt that it reduces danger of the storm surge.
Amphan may have weakened but the wind speed forecast at landfall has increased to 100 knots.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #85 on: May 19, 2020, 09:16:19 AM »
Usually with an eye wall replacement cycle the wind field increases.
Wave height = Wind speed x fetch.
The physics of Climate Change suggest more energy available stronger storm potential.
Quote
Storms of My Grandchildren
The Truth about the Coming Climate Catastrophe
James Hansen
Yet another tropical cyclone that has exceeded projections based on out dated models.

Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

bluice

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #86 on: May 19, 2020, 10:51:04 AM »
Minor is unlikely to help very much. It’s the storm surge that will cause most damage, especially at Ganges Delta

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-5-amphan-to-send-massive-storm-surge-into-eastern-india-and-bangladesh

PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #87 on: May 19, 2020, 05:05:28 PM »
Minor is unlikely to help very much. It’s the storm surge that will cause most damage, especially at Ganges Delta

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-5-amphan-to-send-massive-storm-surge-into-eastern-india-and-bangladesh

Yeah, that's bad. Lots of salty seawater all over the crops!
A single seed in the right place can sprout an entire forest.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #88 on: May 19, 2020, 05:14:42 PM »
& just like that Vertical Wind Shear and a change in the upper atmosphere means that much of Amphan's energy has been dumped into the Bay of Bengal.

191500Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 87.1E.
19MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A WEAKENED SYSTEM THAT STILL RETAINS TIGHTLY
WRAPPED BANDING DESPITE NO LONGER PRESENTING A VISIBLE EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS SUPPORTED BY LONG-RANGE RADAR DATA FROM INDIA,
WHICH CAPTURES THE INTENSE WESTERN EYEWALL, IN ADDITION TO A MICROWAVE
EYE SEEN IN A 191033Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS. THE EYEWALL IS OPEN ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE EYE, INDICATIVE OF THE EASTERLY SHEAR AND MID-
LEVEL DRY AIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS IS IN AGREEMNT GIVEN
THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KNOTS) AND AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE AT 191215Z
OF T5.9 (95 KNOTS). TC 01B IS TRACKING THROUGH A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), VERY WARM (31 DEG CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND FAIR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 01B IS TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER NER TO THE EAST AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ALONG ITS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 01B IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING DUE TO
HIGH (25-30 KNOTS) VWS AND A DETERIORATING UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 24. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED
BEFORE TAU 48 DUE TO HIGH (>25 KNOTS) VWS AND TERRAIN INTERACTION.
TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH ONLY
MINIMAL SPREAD (50 NM) AT LANDFALL, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
THEREAFTER AS MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY IN TRACKING THE VORTEX. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
COTI, INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
ENTIRE FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGREEMENT WITH THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS
OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #89 on: May 19, 2020, 09:46:55 PM »
U.S., Outer Banks of North Carolina

Brian McNoldy on Twitter: "You can't make this up... #Arthur 2020 is the 4th Arthur to scrape the Outer Banks. It's most like the 1996 version, but this is weird. (Technically, the 2002 version wasn't quite a named storm yet when over the Outer Banks.)”
https://mobile.twitter.com/bmcnoldy/status/1262392549051977739
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Phoenix

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #90 on: May 21, 2020, 03:25:18 AM »
Damage reports coming in from Amphan. This from Al Jazeera.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/bangladesh-india-brace-amphan-largest-cyclone-20-years-200520022755647.html

This is an unfolding disaster.....

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #91 on: May 21, 2020, 05:50:18 PM »
5/21/20, 11:16 AM
NOAA predicts more active Atlantic hurricane season with 13-19 named storms, 6-10 hurricanes, 3-6 major hurricanes (Cat. 3 and above). 60% chance of above normal season, 30% chance near normal, 10 percent chance below normal
https://twitter.com/mschleifstein/status/1263488764774678528
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Phoenix

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #92 on: May 23, 2020, 04:52:57 AM »

Phoenix

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #93 on: May 23, 2020, 10:36:19 PM »
Interesting paper from 2014 which finds wind speeds 18 hours before landfall are best correlated to  storm surge height.

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2013EI000527.1

Amphan was a Cat 4 storm 18 hours before it delivered an estimated 5m tall wall of water to the border of India / Bangladesh.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #94 on: May 27, 2020, 04:13:40 PM »
TS Bertha forms in the North Atlantic, then heads across South Carolina:
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #95 on: May 27, 2020, 04:25:50 PM »
TS Bertha forms in the North Atlantic, then heads across South Carolina:

Tell me about it.  I am watching the wind and rain outside my windows!

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #96 on: May 27, 2020, 04:46:09 PM »
Quote
Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) 5/27/20, 8:30 AM
#Bertha has formed near the coast of South Carolina - the 2nd named storm of the 2020 Atlantic #hurricane season to date. The only years on record (since 1851) with 2 Atlantic named storms prior to May 27 are 1887, 1908, 1951 and 2012.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1265621454533431296
Image below, gif at the link.

- The only other year with 2 Atlantic named storms prior to June 1st than those 4 is 2016. No season has had three named storms prior to June 1st on record.
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Phoenix

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #97 on: May 29, 2020, 03:57:09 AM »
Something percolating in the 30C waters SW of Central America. GFS has it heading over the Yucatan into the Gulf.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu May 28 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Disorganized shower activity located a few hundred miles south of
the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico is associated with
a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear to be
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form this weekend while it drifts
northward. 

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy
rainfall over portions of Central America and southern Mexico
this weekend and early next week.  These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain.  See products from your local weather office
for additional information.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #98 on: May 29, 2020, 02:24:27 PM »
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
400 AM EDT Fir May 29 2020

A broad area of low pressure in the central Atlantic could become the third tropical or subtropical depression to form before hurricane season officially begins.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) tagged this system Invest 92L Thursday evening, a designation that allows for specialized computer models to be run on it.

The NHC gives this system a low chance of development by this weekend. Any development would likely occur no later than Saturday.

By Jonathan Belles


vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #99 on: May 30, 2020, 12:05:35 AM »
Evidence Found of Kuroshio Current Strengthening Due to Intensifying Tropical Cyclones
https://phys.org/news/2020-05-evidence-kuroshio-current-due-tropical.html


The mechanism of a positive feedback of tropical cyclones to the warming climate was discovered: intensified tropical cyclones under global warming accelerate the Kuroshio current by modifying the underlying oceanic eddy field.

A team of researchers has found evidence of the Kuroshio current strengthening due to intensifying tropical cyclones. In their paper published in the journal Science, the group describes analyzing climate data revealing evidence that bigger cyclones add energy to spinning eddies.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuroshio_Current

... The Kuroshio current is a mass movement of water in the Pacific Ocean—the current carries warm water from the tropics into the colder, higher latitudes—it is pushed north mainly by wind, but it also gets the occasional boost from giant eddies that form in some parts of the ocean. Such eddies, which are large swirls of water spinning in a circle, are also known as mesoscale eddies, because of their size.

In this new effort, the researchers report evidence that shows stronger than normal cyclones increasing the strength of the eddies that push the current, resulting in a faster moving current and more warm water moving north. They further suggest that the stronger-than-normal cyclones are the result of global warming.

The team sought to understand why the Kuroshio current has maintained its speed over the past 30 years, despite a 30 percent decline in wind strength over the same period. They suspected that it had something to do with eddy activity. To find out if that was the case, the team analyzed data from satellites and from Argo ocean-based floats (they report salinity and water temperature periodically). It showed an increase in counter-clockwise spinning eddy strength related to local cyclonic activity, and a decrease in the strength of clockwise spinning eddies, which can slow the current.

They suggest that warmer ocean water in the higher latitudes could lead to accelerating warming in parts of the northern hemisphere.




https://progearthplanetsci.springeropen.com/articles/10.1186/s40645-015-0045-6

Yu Zhang et al. Strengthening of the Kuroshio current by intensifying tropical cyclones, Science (2020)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.aax5758
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late