Hurricane Season 2020

[KiwiGriff]

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC THU 16-JAN-2020
Tropical Disturbance TD04F (93P)was located just north of northern
Vanuatu 1800UTC this morning. The chance for this system to develop
into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours is HIGH.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC SUN 19-JAN-2020
TD04F (93P) has a HIGH chance of being a tropical cyclone from
overnight tonight (Wednesday) onwards, and is forecast to move
southeast. On this track, the system is expected to affect Fiji and
Rotuma during Friday. A number of warnings and alerts issued by Fiji
Meteorological Service are currently in force for Fiji and Rotuma.
Please visit www.met.gov.fj for details while the system remains
north of 25S.

https://www.metservice.com/warnings/tropical-cyclone-activity

When I spent time in Fiji around 2006 the locals said that Fiji has not been hit directly for decades.
This may be the forth direct impact since 2006 .
 
Like the so called Floridian "shield" or low rate  of land falls in the Continental USA over the last two decades  such an anomaly is  a matter of random chance.
South_Pacific_cyclone_tracks_1980-2005

 

[KiwiGriff]

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 2306 UTC 16-Jan-2020

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Tropical cyclone Tino (985hPa, Category 1) was located about 70nm (
130km) southeast of Rotuma, or about 200nm (370km) to the northwest
of Labasa this morning (16/1800 UTC), moving southeast. Maximum winds
near the centre were estimated to be about 40 knots (75km/h),
increasing to 50 knots (95km/h) in the next 24 hours, with gales
extending to 150 nm (280 km)from the centre.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC SAT 18-JAN-2020
TC Tino is expected to move southeast, across Vanua Levu, Fiji this
evening and the Lau Group early tomorrow as a Category 2 cyclone. The
system is expected to lie to the south of Tongatatu, Tonga tomorrow
night.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC TUE 21-JAN-2020

TC Tino is expected to continue on the southeast track, and based on
the current model outlooks, it is expected to move out of the tropics
during Sunday afternoon. There is a chance that it could intensify
slightly while moving south of Tonga. No other significant lows
expected.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0000 UTC Sat 18-Jan-2020
https://www.metservice.com/warnings/tropical-cyclone-activity

[Sigmetnow]

Australia

Cyclone Damien intensifies off WA coast as Karratha braces for impact on Saturday

• Damien will be the most destructive cyclone to cross the WA coast since 2013
• It is likely to hit just east of Karratha, a major population centre in the region
• A red alert has been issued ahead of the storm's arrival on Saturday afternoon

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-07/cyclone-damien-intensifies-off-wa-as-karratha-braces-for-impact/11942984

[Sigmetnow]

Bomb Cyclone Dennis Could Rival Some of the Most Intense North Atlantic Storms on Record

Storm Dennis will bring strong winds and heavy rain to northwestern Europe this weekend.
It will likely undergo bombogenesis, indicative of a rapidly strengthening powerful storm.

Dennis could rival some of the most intense North Atlantic storms in terms of lowest sea-level pressure.
A new powerful storm will take aim at northwestern Europe later this week just days after Storm Ciara pounded several countries with high winds and torrential rain and killed at least eight people.

Storm Dennis was named by the U.K. Met Office on Tuesday. Computer forecast models predict this low-pressure system to intensify as it moves across the North Atlantic Ocean through Saturday, likely becoming a bomb cyclone.

A bomb cyclone is a term used when a low-pressure system undergoes bombogenesis, meaning its central pressure drops by at least 24 millibars within 24 hours, a sign of rapid strengthening.

Forecast guidance suggests the central pressure of Storm Dennis will drop below 930 millibars when it's south of Iceland by Friday or Saturday. The lower the pressure, the more intense the storm, increasing the likelihood of strong winds. ...

https://weather.com/news/international/news/2020-02-12-bomb-cyclone-dennis-rival-most-intense-north-atlantic-storms

More here:  https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,323.msg249436.html#msg249436

[Jim Hunt]

A new powerful storm will take aim at northwestern Europe later this week just days after Storm Ciara pounded several countries with high winds and torrential rain and killed at least eight people.

Storm Dennis was named by the U.K. Met Office on Tuesday. Computer forecast models predict this low-pressure system to intensify as it moves across the North Atlantic Ocean through Saturday, likely becoming a bomb cyclone.

I followed the progress of Ciara closely on Twitter last weekend. Starting here:

https://twitter.com/V2gUK/status/1226451525964304385

I will be doing much the same with Dennis this coming weekend. However neither of them are "hurricanes" or "tropical cyclones". Are we broadening the remit of this thread?

If so:

[Sigmetnow]

Are we broadening the remit of this thread? 

Alicia M Bentley: "It's pretty difficult to get a <-4σ standardized MSLP anomaly in the North Atlantic during the winter. If this forecast verifies, we could see a 927-hPa cyclone with hurricane-force winds at 1800 UTC on February 15th!”

https://mobile.twitter.com/aliciambentley/status/1227270399508934657

920mb is hurricane country. 

NWS OPC (@NWSOPC)  2/13/20, 7:55 AM
Feb 12-13: explosive cyclogenesis across the western and central Atlantic, as seen via GOES-E RGB air mass imagery -- low continues to produce hazardous marine conditions including #hurricane force winds to 80 kt, seas well in excess of 40 ft. #MarineWx

https://twitter.com/nwsopc/status/1227939448807026690
Image below; more at the link.

[Jim Hunt]

920mb is hurricane country. 

I am used to hurricane force winds. I am located near the coast of North Cornwall!

However Dennis is not a hurricane.

[The Walrus]

920mb is hurricane country. 

I am used to hurricane force winds. I am located near the coast of North Cornwall!

However Dennis is not a hurricane.

I agree.  This is not a hurricane.  While this low pressure is rare, it is not unprecedented for a winter storm.

[be cause]

gfs .. 42 hours out : Dennis has 2 deep centres below 925 mb .. both potentially in the 5 deepest lows recorded . In the following hours one deepens further to below 920 mb .. potentially the 2nd lowest pressure ever recorded in the N. Atlantic . This Dennis is certainly a menace to me .. b.c.

[Jim Hunt]

If we're sticking with Dennis in here, then this is the 18Z chart and the 48 hour forecast.

Those isobars are pretty tightly packed over North Cornwall!

[Jim Hunt]

The NWS 06Z chart. 936 hPa and "hurricane force" winds, although thankfully not yet in North Cornwall. The rain certainly has however!

Plus the UKMO's 12Z forecast:

[Sigmetnow]

NWS OPC on Twitter: "Today is the climatological peak for #extratropical #hurricaneforce lows in the North Atlantic. Can you tell? #MarineWx”
https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/1228428157830619136
Image below.

NWS OPC on Twitter: "GOES-16 RGB Airmass imagery from 12z yesterday to 21z today show the evolution of yesterdays picturesque #HurricaneForce low, and the development of the next rapidly intensifying low that is forecast to deepen to 914 mb by 18z tomorrow. #Marinewx"
https://twitter.com/NWSOPC/status/1228441208814309376
Colorful satellite gif at the link.

[Jim Hunt]

The NWS 18Z chart for Storm Dennis. 920 hPa MSLP and the winds have certainly reached North Cornwall now!

Lisa the LEAF and I ventured out into them, and met another Lisa on the beach!

[blumenkraft]

Hey Jim, you need a microphone windscreen.

[Jim Hunt]

Hey Jim, you need a microphone windscreen.

Turning my back to the prevailing wind was quite effective. Hindsight is a wonderful thing!

Meanwhile, here are the UKMO 0Z and NWS 6Z charts, plus the latest band of rain across South West England:

[Jim Hunt]

According to the Environment Agency this is the largest number of flood alerts/warnings ever issued simultaneously in the history of the English enclave of the once United Kingdom:



Note the recently flooded building site!

P.S. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2020/storm-dennis-triggers-red-rain-warning

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Jim!

Here in the Calder Valley the ghoulish media crews picked a Dud to spend the night awaiting!

The River Calder was a good metre and a half below the 5.02m of last Sunday's peak levels

The Army are now cast with a 'Grand old Duke of York-ish' task of taking away the mountain of (now sodden) sandbags they deployed up and down the Valley over the course of yesterday p.m.

My thoughts are with all of those struggling further south of here with the kind of River levels that visited us last Sunday!

[be cause]

woke during the night to strange banging .. then found lots of insulation around my mobile home this morning . Realise now it was the roof trying to escape . Thankfully it didn't quite get away .. b.c.

[Jim Hunt]

I have just discovered that WorldView now offers geostationary imagery with 10 minute resolution.

Here's GOES-E at 09Z yesterday morning:

https://go.nasa.gov/2OZQDkb

[Sigmetnow]

Dr. Michael Folmer, one the OPC's Marine Forecasters, has written a blog post summarizing the most recent hurricane force low pressure system in the E Atlantic. It includes spectacular satellite imagery, and can be found at this link:

https://satelliteliaisonblog.com/2020/02/16/north-atlantic-storminess-february-13-15-2020/

A rapidly intensifying low pressure system made its way into the Atlantic on Tuesday, 11 February 2020 and quickly grew into a powerful extratropical cyclone producing hurricane force winds by Thursday, 13 February 2020. By 0600 UTC on 14 February 2020, the low bottomed out with a minimum low pressure of 929mb. This system deepened by more than 40 mb in 24 hours during its rapid intensification phase, classifying it as a “bomb” cyclone. It tracked north towards Iceland where it caused hurricane force wind gusts, the highest gust, although terrain enhanced, reached 159 mph (https://www.severe-weather.eu/recent-events/near-record-wind-gusts-255kmh-hafnarfjall-iceland-mk/). These gusts were recorded on the leading edge of the cyclone where the cold conveyor belt north of the occluded front in the N-NE quadrants played a role.

This intense extratropical cyclone was closely followed by another cyclone (named Dennis by the UKMet office) rapidly intensified during the day on 14 February 2020 deepening by 40 mb in 24 hours, classifying it as another bomb cyclone. This system is following a similar path as the previous cyclone, capitalizing on the favorable baroclinic environment left in the wake of the first cyclone.

In the RGB Airmass imagery (above) from GOES-16, it is clear that there is also a large potential vorticity anomaly (red shading) upstream of the system, originating from a trough over the eastern United States. This inflow of potential vorticity into the storm is aiding the rapid intensification of the system. This system deepened to 920 mb as of the Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) 1800 UTC analysis on 15 February 2020. Hurricane force winds have been sampled by ASCAT scatterometers and by aircraft in the early morning hours of 15 February 2020 with maximum winds of 94 kt! …

[Gray-Wolf]

Images on FB/twitter showing a funnel cloud/waterspout heading up the Menai straits between Wales and Anglesey lunchtime today?.....

https://twitter.com/AledH_/status/1229013215784427520?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1229013215784427520&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.netweather.tv%2Fforum%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2FAledH_%2Fstatus%2F1229013215784427520

[Sigmetnow]

Stu Ostro: "The sun rises and sets on #StormDennis and its #Fujiwhara dance partner”
https://mobile.twitter.com/stuostro/status/1228800670075150337
Satellite gif at the link.

—-
  Edit:

Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) 2/16/20, 12:23 PM
What a wild & complex weather extremity—a 929 millibar beast followed by another meteorological bomb as the pressure of #StormDennis dropped to 920 (one of the lowest on record in this part of the world), & then the 2 combined into a massive cyclone while doing a #Fujiwhara dance

https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1229093851895336960
Different, colorized, sat-gif at the link.

—————-
—- 
Andrew Freedman: "When a forecaster decides to draw a cold front THIS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . BIG."
https://mobile.twitter.com/afreedma/status/1228800328570736641
Image below.

[Sigmetnow]

NWS OPC (@NWSOPC) 2/16/20, 10:30 AM
As seen in OPC's 12 UTC Atlantic surface analysis, the low in the Northeast #Atlantic, south of #Iceland, has weakened a bit to #storm force. That said the low remains very intense w/seas up to 14.5 m (47 ft) west of the #BritishIsles, per the 12 UTC Atlantic sea-state analysis.

https://twitter.com/nwsopc/status/1229065426975412224
Images below.

[gerontocrat]

NWS OPC (@NWSOPC) 2/16/20, 10:30 AM
As seen in OPC's 12 UTC Atlantic surface analysis, the low in the Northeast #Atlantic, south of #Iceland, has weakened a bit to #storm force. That said the low remains very intense w/seas up to 14.5 m (47 ft) west of the #BritishIsles, per the 12 UTC Atlantic sea-state analysis.

https://twitter.com/nwsopc/status/1229065426975412224
Images below.

It were the rain wot dunnit this time. River Wye in Hereford exceeds the high in 1795 - yes 1795.

[Sigmetnow]

It were the rain wot dunnit this time. River Wye in Hereford exceeds the high in 1795 - yes 1795.

   Some locations received two months’ worth of rain in 48 hours.

Hereford hit by 'devastating' floods as River Wye reaches record levels in aftermath of Storm Dennis
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/hereford-floods-river-why-record-levels-storm-dennis-weather-latest-a4363976.html

Flood risk remains as Storm Dennis rain swells rivers to ‘exceptional’ levels
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/flood-risk-remains-as-storm-dennis-rain-swells-rivers-to-exceptional-levels-38964009.html

[Sigmetnow]

U.K.

Dave Throup (@DaveThroupEA) 2/17/20, 3:55 PM
I’ve seen things today I would not have believed.
Large parts of my home town and village are underwater tonight.
This is not normal flooding, we are in uncharted territory.
So sorry for everyone who has flooded.
Back tomorrow.

https://twitter.com/davethroupea/status/1229509808262451201
Images below; others at the link.

Matt Dobson (@supercell_1996) 2/17/20, 5:17 PM
For the benefit of those less familiar with #Worcester, here's a Google Maps image vs one of Dave Grubb's images for comparison, showing the extent of the flood water vs a normal scene. Incredible extent of flooding, but the extent of the flooding into Powick is most unusual.

https://twitter.com/supercell_1996/status/1229530282023358464
Image below.

David Sutton (@djsut) 2/17/20, 3:08 AM
The scene from the train in to Foregate Street this morning

https://twitter.com/djsut/status/1229316680255492097
Brief video.

[vox_mundi]

start at time 0:35

Massive Two-Tiered A380 Jet Makes 'White-Knuckle' ‘Crab’ Landing at Heathrow During Storm Dennis

[blumenkraft]

Holy crab! 

[Jim Hunt]

A Channel 4 News report from what used to be the streets of Pontypridd in South Wales:

Have a look at that mountainside

[Juan C. García]

Abnormally warm Gulf of Mexico could intensify the upcoming tornado and hurricane seasons

Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico are running more than three degrees above average, increasing the prospects for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes this spring and potentially stronger hurricane activity in the summer and fall.

The last time Gulf of Mexico waters were similarly warm in 2017, it coincided with an above-average tornado season through the spring, and then Category 4 Hurricane Harvey struck the Texas Gulf Coast at the end of summer.

The bottom line

While it is too early to predict any specific events, the presence of abnormally warm water in the Gulf of Mexico does make certain events more likely to occur and/or become more intense than they would have been otherwise. Individual events — including particular severe weather outbreaks and the specific implications for hurricane season — can’t be predicted yet.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/03/31/gulf-of-mexico-warm-tornadoes-hurricanes/?itid=hp_hp-more-top-stories-2_warmgulf-145pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans
By Matthew Cappucci
March 31 at 2:13 PM

[The Walrus]

Tornadic activity is not influenced by warmth, particularly ocean warmth.  Rather it is influenced by the temperature gradient, between the warmth and cold.  The greater the difference, the stronger the storms.

[Jim Hunt]

Communications down after category 5 Cyclone Harold hits Vanuatu:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/06/communications-down-after-category-5-cyclone-harold-hits-vanuatu

Cyclone Harold made landfall on the north and west of the country on Monday, after spending Sunday sitting off the country’s west coast, gathering strength.

The Vanuatu meteorology and geo-hazards department warned that hurricane force winds, reaching up to 235km/h were expected across parts of the country on Monday, as well as heavy rainfalls, flash flooding and “very rough to phenomenal seas”.


“Communications to Santo and Malekula [Vanuatu’s two largest islands] are cut now, so we don’t know what’s happening,” said Eric Durpaire, the chief of Vanuatu’s field office for Unicef Pacific, over the phone from the country’s capital of Port Vila. “The latest information we had was that the roof of the municipality building of Santo has collapsed and there is flooding.”

[Sigmetnow]

Tropical Cyclone Harold Barrels into Vanuatu with 145-mph Winds

Harold likely to be the second strongest cyclone in Vanuatu’s history

This is cyclone season in the Southern Hemisphere, and Vanuatu gets its share of cyclones, but Harold is an uncommonly powerful storm for this part of the South Pacific. According to JTWC, the only two cyclones of at least Category 3 strength on record to pass within 100 nm (115 miles) of Espiritu Santo are Zuman, which crossed the island as a minimal Category 3 storm (sustained winds of 115 mph) in April 1998, and Dani, which made landfall from the south as a strong Category 2 storm (sustained winds of 105 mph) in January 1999. Harold is thus likely to strike an unprecedented blow to this island, whose economy is based on subsistence farming.

Rainfall totals of over 10 inches are likely in some areas, with widespread totals of over 6 inches, said weather.com. Landslides and flash flooding are expected.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/tropical-cyclone-harold-barrels-into-vanuatu-with-145-mph-winds

[Tom_Mazanec]

Here is where you can find out the name lists for this year for anywhere in the world:
https://public.wmo.int/en/About-us/FAQs/faqs-tropical-cyclones/tropical-cyclone-naming

[be cause]

at least 29 drowned as passengers washed overboard from packed Solomon Islands ferry ..

[nanning]

Pacific's monster storm destroys tourist resorts in Tonga

https://phys.org/news/2020-04-pacific-monster-storm-tourist-resorts.html
  by Mary Lyn Fonua


A resurgent Tropical Cyclone Harold flattened tourist resorts in Tonga Thursday, extending a week-long trail of destruction across four South Pacific island nations that has claimed more than two dozen lives.

The cyclone gathered pace as it bore down on the tiny island kingdom, which declared a state of emergency, warning residents to seek shelter from destructive winds and massive sea surges.

By early Thursday it had again become a scale-topping Category Five superstorm—surprising meteorologists after signs earlier in the week that its intensity was dropping.

Packing winds of up to 260 kilometres per hour (160 miles per hour), it cut power in parts of the country and police said at least three tourist resorts north of the capital Nuku'alofa had been reduced to rubble.

The cyclone killed 27 people in the Solomons late last week before barrelling southeast to directly hit Vanuatu as a Category Five, obliterating entire towns in the northern provinces.

There have been no reports of deaths in Vanuatu, Fiji or Tonga, with emergency workers saying residents in the hardest hit areas took shelter early.

"It appears that many buildings and crops have been destroyed and some people in the most affected areas have lost everything," Red Cross Vanuatu secretary general Jacqueline de Gaillande said.

Harold weakened slightly to a still-formidable Category Four as it lashed Fiji on Wednesday but hopes the storm was dissipating were dashed as it regathered momentum heading towards Tonga.

"We knew the track it was going to take but initially everyone thought it was just going to be Cat 3 or 4, but as it progressed over open warm waters it deepened."

"It's almost unheard of to see a cyclone tracking south away from the equator, weakening, then suddenly returning back to Cat 5 so far south," he said.

The COVID-19 pandemic has complicated disaster relief efforts, with Vanuatu reluctant to open its international borders as it seeks to remain one of the few countries without any confirmed virus cases.

[Sigmetnow]

NHC is doing a 60-hour forecast point this year.  Also, Local Times on some products!

National Hurricane Center (@NWSNHC) 4/20/20, 1:32 PM
The 2020 edition of our annual "Update on National Hurricane Center Products and Services" includes a graphical depiction of storm surge inundation values and 60-hour forecast information. @NWS @NHC_Atlantic @NHC_Pacific @NHC_Surge @NHC_TAFB

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NHC_new_products_services_2020.pdf 

https://twitter.com/nwsnhc/status/1252288941270548482
“Working from home” photo below.

[Phoenix]

Invest 90E in the Eastern Pacific is now an 80% likelihood to form the first ever April tropical depression in the region. The Pacific Ocean region extending west of the Yucatan is actually considerably warmer than the Gulf of Mexico at this point in time.

_________________________________

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1245 PM PDT Fri Apr 24 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of
disturbed weather located well south-southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California Peninsula.

1. The broad area of low pressure located about 750 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula
has become a little better defined today. However, the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased somewhat during that
time. Environmental conditions are favorable for additional gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next
day or so as the system moves northwestward at around 10 mph. By
late this weekend, conditions will become less conducive for
development. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this
system will be issued by 8 PM PDT Friday, or earlier, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Phoenix]

Invest 90E has transformed into a tropical depression (TD). The first April TD ever recorded in the Eastern Pacific. Records date back to the 1960's.

[vox_mundi]

All Signs Point To An Active Hurricane Season
https://mashable.com/article/hurricane-season-2020-forecast-prediction.amp
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1203246

... There are over a dozen forecasts published. And even though the official forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration won't come until May 21, a strong consensus in the forecasts across the industry indicates the US is in for an active season.

In the Atlantic Ocean basin this year, the University of Arizona expects 19 storms and 10 hurricanes, Accuweather predicts 14 to 18 storms and seven to nine hurricanes, and Penn State University's best forecast is for 20 storms.

... This year the average forecast -- for all 13 groups that have submitted to Seasonal Hurricane Predictions -- is eight hurricanes and 17 named storms.

An average season sees six hurricanes and 12 named storms.

https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/

"Sea surface temperatures across much of the Atlantic are running well above normal and have been for the past few months"

"The current Atlantic sea surface temperature setup is consistent with active Atlantic hurricane seasons," says Klotzbach. "With the notable exception of the far North Atlantic, which remains somewhat cooler than normal."



"There is high confidence that El Niño will not inhibit hurricane activity this year," Klotzbach says

There is one organization that is a slight outlier. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, or ECMWF, is forecasting a normal to a slightly above-normal season.

"The ECMWF model has weaker La Niña development, and sea surface temperature anomalies in the Atlantic are weaker, so both of these factors might give the ECMWF model a less-strong hurricane season than forecasts using NCEP inputs," Stockdale says, referring to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.

He also notes that their calibration is based on 1993-2015, and does not take into account the last four years (2016-19), which have been more active.

Those same years, the ECMWF has predicted fewer hurricanes ahead of the season than were observed.

[Phoenix]

Thanks for the post vox.

Looking at that image, one sees a slightly negative SST anomaly in the Cape Verde islands off the coast of Mauritania. That's a common launching region for Atlantic hurricanes. Will be interesting to watch that region as the summer evolves.

[The Walrus]

All Signs Point To An Active Hurricane Season
https://mashable.com/article/hurricane-season-2020-forecast-prediction.amp
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1203246
"There is high confidence that El Niño will not inhibit hurricane activity this year," Klotzbach says

That is a rather odd way of saying it, as EL Nino conditions inhibit Atlantic hurricane activity. 

Most of the models are predicting a more active season due to La Nina development this summer.  ECMWF is not.

[oren]

Not odd at all. El Nino will not inhibit hurricane activity because with high confidence there will not be one.

[The Walrus]

Not odd at all. El Nino will not inhibit hurricane activity because with high confidence there will not be one.

Hmm.  Does that not fall under the false logic of null result?

[interstitial]

ONI index from NOAA indicates an El Nino now but it is almost the weakest possible to qualify for an el Nino. 0.5 is the lowest value to qualify and all but one of the 5 required three month averages are 0.5 the other is 0.6. My understanding is the NOAA defination has weaker requirement than the other definition?
https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

[Sigmetnow]

Mark Sudduth on Twitter: "Weekly video discussion takes a look at even more evidence that’s literally pointing to an active hurricane season ahead. Plus, here’s a handy naming guide for this season - includes east and west Pac too! Thanks @TyphoonMr for the graphic.

Off-Season Hurricane Outlook and Discussion for May 11, 2020
https://t.co/4sCSK732XN 

https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1259940734976897027

[pearscot]

Ha, I watch Mark all the time - I like his content quite a bit.

Everything is appearing to provide the conditions for a strong hurricane season, but who knows what to expect. That said, it's looking more and more like the rest of the year will either be neutral or a slight la nina, which again makes the hurricane season worse (on average).

[Phoenix]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/122331_MIATWOAT.shtml

(a little but of early action. not a threat at the moment. looks like a fish storm if it forms at all)

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Tue May 12 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for subtropical development this weekend northeast of the Bahamas.

1. A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this
week or early this weekend a couple of hundred miles north of
the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm
is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over
the western Atlantic. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on
this system will be issued by 9 AM EDT Wednesday, or earlier, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Phoenix]

Typhoon VongFong set to say hello to the Philipines.

Rapidly intensified to  Cat 2 in the last 24 hours and forecast to become a Cat 4 in the next 24 hours. Small storm in diameter, but will pack a punch where it hits and deliver up to 50 cm of rain.

https://earther.gizmodo.com/typhoon-vongfong-rapidly-intensifies-as-it-heads-for-th-1843443041

[Jim Hunt]

A little bit of early action

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.