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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #150 on: July 23, 2020, 11:27:55 PM »
Hurricane Douglas to give Hawaii a bit of a pasting. This is an unusual occurence.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP3+shtml/232042.shtml?
Key Messages:

1.  Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect
portions of the state beginning on Sunday.  Interests on the
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas
and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days.
Watches could be issued on Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 14.1N 137.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 15.0N 139.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 16.2N 142.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 17.4N 145.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 18.5N 149.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 19.4N 152.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 20.1N 154.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...NEAR HAWAII
 96H  27/1800Z 21.0N 160.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 21.5N 167.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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FrostKing70

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #151 on: July 24, 2020, 04:19:54 PM »
Now we have Hanna, with another system near Africa likely to get named in a few days.   

And it is still July!

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #152 on: July 24, 2020, 05:56:32 PM »
Douglas is the 2nd Hurricane to hit Hawaii in the last 2 years. This is unusual, making it the 6th notable event since 1950. Climate change?

Notable hurricanes in Hawaii

Hurricane Nina (1957): The category one hurricane formed south of Hawaii. Hurricane Nina continued to move north when it took a sharp turn to the west towards the Island chain. The hurricane did not actually hit land. At its closest approach, Nina was centered about 120 miles west-southwest of Kauai, but still created notable damage and dropped over 20 inches of rain. Oahu was also strongly affected by the storm, with moderate rains and 45 MPH winds.

Hurricane Dot (1959): This category four hurricane entered the south Pacific just south of Hawaii. Moving west-northwest on August 5 of that year, Dot abruptly changed directions and began traveling northwest towards Kauai. When Dot passed over Kauai on August 6, it had been downgraded to a category one storm, but still packed wind gusts over 100 MPH. The storm caused minor damage to Hawaii, Oahu and Kauai.

Hurricane Iwa (1982): At the time, this category one hurricane was the most damaging to hit Hawaii. It passed just west of Kauai, causing severe property damage, minor physical injuries and one death. Up to $250 million dollars in damage was created.

Hurricane Iniki (1992): This category four hurricane was the most devastating hurricane to hit Hawaii. Borne from El Nino, Iniki traveled on a west-northwest course and continued to strengthen. On September 11, the eye of the hurricane passed directly over Kauai, devastating the island. It caused over $1.8 billion in damage, and was responsible for six deaths.

And...
Hurricane Lane (2018)was a powerful tropical cyclone that brought torrential rainfall and strong winds to Hawaii during late August 2018. The storm was the wettest on record in Hawaii, with peak rainfall accumulations of 58 in (1,473 mm) along the eastern slopes of Mauna Loa
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #153 on: July 24, 2020, 06:38:23 PM »
With so few numbers it is hard to establish any sort of trend.  Tropical cyclone movement over the middle of the Pacific is quite random, and direct hit compared to a near (or total) miss is subject to arbitrary movements.  Records are also sparse prior to 1950, so it is rather difficult to ascribe any effect due to climate change.  The only recorded hurricanes to directly hit the islands, listed by strength/damage occurred in 1992 (iniki), 1871 (unnamed cat. 3), 1982 (Iwa), and 1959 (Dot).  Several others made near misses, including Lane in 2018, Hiki in 1950, Jimina in 2003, and Iselle in 2014.  Too little data to make any meaningful assertion.

FrostKing70

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #154 on: July 24, 2020, 07:30:56 PM »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #155 on: July 24, 2020, 07:51:25 PM »
Quote
Douglas is the 2nd Hurricane to hit Hawaii in the last 2 years.
Counting chickens, I see.  Douglas hasn't arrived in Hawaiʻi yet.  It may well downgrade to a Tropical Storm before Sunday afternoon.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2020, 09:11:57 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #156 on: July 24, 2020, 08:03:13 PM »
Quote
Douglas is the 2nd Hurricane to hit Hawaii in the last 2 years.
Counting chickens, I see.  Douglas hasn't arrived in Hawai'i yet.  It may well downgrade to a Tropical Storm before Sunday afternoon.
As has happened to many a hurricane that has ventured so far into the Pacific.

wdmn

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #157 on: July 25, 2020, 05:32:07 AM »
Tropical Storm Hanna looks like it's going to pull a rapid escalation to hurricane status before making landfall in Texas. The advisory this morning (as well as all previous) still had it making landfall as a tropical storm. Seems like the models are still having trouble with the sometimes explosive development of these storms.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #158 on: July 25, 2020, 08:29:38 PM »
Tropical Storm Hanna looks like it's going to pull a rapid escalation to hurricane status before making landfall in Texas.

Moving pictures of the Texas storm surge:

https://twitter.com/brianemfinger/status/1287016782574886913
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morganism

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #159 on: July 25, 2020, 08:51:14 PM »
Excellent TX weather forcaster

https://spacecityweather.com/

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #160 on: July 25, 2020, 11:04:58 PM »
Quote
Douglas is the 2nd Hurricane to hit Hawaii in the last 2 years.
Counting chickens, I see.  Douglas hasn't arrived in Hawai'i yet.  It may well downgrade to a Tropical Storm before Sunday afternoon.
As has happened to many a hurricane that has ventured so far into the Pacific.
Latest update from NHC.

Key Messages

1. Douglas continues to approach the main Hawaiian Islands,
potentially passing dangerously close to, or over, the islands
late tonight through Sunday night. The close passage of Douglas
brings a triple threat of hazards, including but not limited to
damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and dangerously high surf,
especially along east facing shores.

2. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Douglas, and remain prepared for changes to the
forecast. Due to Douglas' angle of approach to the islands, any
small changes in the track could lead to significant differences in
where the worst weather occurs. Even if the center remains
offshore, severe impacts could still be realized over the islands,
as they extend well away from the center.

3. Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of
the wind through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These
acceleration areas will shift with time as Douglas passes near the
islands. Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of
high rise buildings.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 19.1N 148.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 19.7N 150.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 20.6N 153.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 21.4N 156.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 22.1N 159.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  28/0000Z 22.7N 162.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 23.2N 166.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 24.1N 172.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 25.3N 179.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #161 on: July 27, 2020, 10:01:49 PM »
Douglas missed Hawaii by 50 miles.
But it was (is still) a hurricane.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #162 on: July 28, 2020, 01:57:14 PM »
Eric Fisher: "[U.S] East coast water is notably warmer than average for this time of year thanks to the hot July. Particularly here in New England.”
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1287846261438271488
Image below.

Dan Satterfield: "This means trouble for any tropical cyclones coming up the coast in the next 8 weeks..."
https://twitter.com/wildweatherdan/status/1287855286703788041
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #163 on: July 28, 2020, 04:46:01 PM »
Not a storm - yet..

Quote
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 500 miles east of
the Windward Islands is producing a wide area of showers and
thunderstorms. Although recent satellite imagery suggests that the
system does not yet have a well-defined center, data from NOAA buoy
41040 indicate that the system is producing winds near
tropical-storm-force. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon and will
provide more information about the current state of the disturbance.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to
form during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and approaches the Leeward
Islands. Regardless of development, locally heavy rain is likely
across portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning later today and
continuing through Wednesday, especially in the Leeward Islands.
These conditions will spread westward to the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico Wednesday night and Thursday.
Interests on these islands
should continue to monitor the progress of this system and tropical
storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area
later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

Maybe one day Trump will get that inhabitants of Puerto Rico are US Ctiizens
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #164 on: July 28, 2020, 06:05:43 PM »
Quote
Jamie Groh (@AlteredJamie) 7/28/20, 11:30 AM
Looks like Florida could be in for a tropical storm this weekend - the exact same time frame that @Astro_Doug & @AstroBehnken are scheduled to splash down concluding the #SpaceX #CrewDragon #Demo2 mission.

However, still lots of uncertainty of development & in forecast track.
https://twitter.com/alteredjamie/status/1288134804622512128


NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) 7/28/20, 11:15 AM

An [area] of disturbed weather (currently east of the Windward Islands) is being monitored for potential storm development. Please be mindful that there is much uncertainty in the forecast, especially further in the forecast period. Have a plan regardless of the forecast track! #flwx
https://twitter.com/nwsmiami/status/1288130963260633088
Image below.
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The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #165 on: July 29, 2020, 01:34:27 PM »
Douglas missed Hawaii by 50 miles.
But it was (is still) a hurricane.

We can add that to the list of near misses for the islands.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #166 on: July 29, 2020, 06:41:30 PM »
The "official" track of PTC 9 now puts 'me' just beyond the end of the center line - so about 6 days out.   I'm surprised they have the storm crossing Hispaniola and not getting torn to shreds, just weakened some.  By the way, the Navy site has a wonderful graphic which shows, among other things, how lopsided the wind field will be. (click to enlarge)
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #167 on: July 30, 2020, 09:37:40 AM »
I'm surprised they have the storm crossing Hispaniola and not getting torn to shreds, just weakened some. 

See lat night's tropical tidbits video for a discussion of this. Its because the circulation is large and disorganised and a lot of it stays over water either because it stays large compared to Hispaniola, or if it organises and shrinks, there'll probably be a jog to the north of Hispaniola.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #168 on: July 30, 2020, 04:51:09 PM »
Yes, the course of the storm will have a huge impact on how it emerges on the other side of the island.  If it traverses directly over the island, it will get "torn to shreds."  However, if the center of circulation stays to the north of the island, it will likely experience some weakening, but strengthen again once it passes.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #169 on: August 02, 2020, 08:29:14 PM »
Eye of the storm blog is finally up and running for those who formally watched Category six.
 https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/updates-on-hurricane-isaias-from-eye-on-the-storm/

Forecast for Isaias
Quote
Satellite images on Saturday afternoon showed that Isaias had a large area of intense thunderstorms along the east side of the center of circulation. Isaias was in a region dominated by southwesterly upper-level winds associated with a large-scale trough of low pressure. These winds were creating unfavorable conditions for intensification, with high wind shear of 20 – 25 knots. In addition, this shear was driving dry air from the west side of the hurricane into its center, keeping heavy thunderstorms limited on its west side. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were a warm 29 – 29.5 degrees Celsius (84 – 85°F), and Isaias was embedded in a moderately dry atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 50 – 55%. Overall, these conditions favor only slow changes to Isaias’s strength through Monday. Most of the intensity models favor slow weakening, as does the official NHC forecast.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #170 on: August 07, 2020, 11:56:53 PM »
US Hurricane Experts Predict 'Extremely Active' Storm Season
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/07/hurricane-experts-noaa-storm-season
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/08/updated-hurricane-season-outlooks-expect-plenty-more-storms/

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said there could be up to 25 storms which have sustained winds of 39mph or greater. Storms which hit this threshold are named by the agency.

Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center, said the combined intensity and duration of all storms during the season is predicted to be much higher than the threshold for an “extremely active” season.

“We’ve never forecast up to 25 storms,” Bell said in a press briefing. “So this is the first time.”

The previous high was in 2005, when the agency predicted a maximum of 21 named storms.

Of the 25 possible named storms, NOAA estimates seven to 11 could become hurricanes, which have winds of at least 74mph. The agency also forecast that three to six storms could become major hurricanes, with winds of 111mph or more.

The increase in predicted hurricanes is attributed to warmer than usual sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, combined with the wind conditions.

----------------------------------------------

Researchers Find Link Between Atlantic Hurricanes and Weather System in East Asia
https://phys.org/news/2020-08-link-atlantic-hurricanes-weather-east.html

Researchers led by the University of Iowa have identified a connection between a climate system in East Asia and the frequency of tropical storms that develop in the Atlantic Ocean—which can strengthen into hurricanes that threaten the United States.

In a new study, the researchers say the East Asian Subtropical Jet Stream (EASJ) an upper-level river of wind that originates in East Asia and moves west to east across the globe, carries with it an atmospheric phenomenon called a Rossby wave.

Rossby waves occur naturally within the Earth's oceans and atmosphere, forming because of the planet's rotation. The researchers say Rossby waves hitch a ride on the EASJ to the North Atlantic when tropical cyclones in the Atlantic are most likely to form. The waves affect wind shear, a key element in the formation of tropical storms.

"When the EASJ is stronger, it can enhance this pattern, which leads to stronger teleconnections and stronger wind shear in the North Atlantic," explains says Wei Zhang, a climate scientist at IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering at Iowa. "That can suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone formation."

"These jets act as a conduit for the signal originating in Asia, so it can propagate over the Atlantic."

The scientists observed nearly 40 years of Atlantic tropical cyclones during prime formation season, from August to November, and their connection during the same time period with EASJ activity between July to October.



Wei Zhang et al, The East Asian Subtropical Jet Stream and Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, Geophysical Research Letters (2020)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020GL088851

-----------------------------------------------

On a personal note.

TS Isaias did a number on my state (Connecticut). Over 750, 000 customers - 2 million people - without power. 44 major roads within 10 miles are blocked by downed trees and powerlines. Don't expect full recovery till next Tuesday.

Most microwave repeater towers failed because of lack of auxiliary power. No phone or internet for last 72 hrs. Coverage still spotty.

12 hrs before the storm hit local weather services predicted 20-40 mph winds. Actually hit with 60-80 mph winds and multiple tornadoes.

Since 2011 (last hurricane) utilities have added a surcharge to the bill to pay for 'hardening' the infrastructure from extreme weather (tree branch removal near wires). Apparently that all went to executive bonuses because the infrastructure failed worse than the last hurricane.And anybody working from home because of COVID-19 is screwed out of a weeks pay.

I am not amused.  >:(




Local road

On a positive note. I tied the corn (maize) in my garden to the wire fence they were growing next to with bungee cords. They all survived. So I'll have 3 dozen ears of sweet corn in a week or two.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2020, 03:16:40 AM by vox_mundi »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #171 on: August 08, 2020, 03:52:01 PM »
Andrew Freedman on Twitter: "[THREAD] Why the new NOAA hurricane seasonal outlook is so dire.
Note: We've already had a record 9 named storms so far. Typically, the ninth-named storm forms in early Oct. It's early August. After the 21st named storm, we go into the Greek alphabet.
[WaPo article at the link.]
https://twitter.com/afreedma/status/1291420697533661184
"Sea surface temperatures in tropical Atlantic, along East Coast, and in Caribbean are well above avg. (in some cases record warm). That's fuel ready and waiting for storms to tap into. 2/
“A developing La Nina event in the tropical Pacific may lead to reduced wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, making it a more favorable environment for tropical storms and hurricanes. 3/
"An unusually active West African Monsoon season is bringing more thunderstorms off the west coast of Africa, which can then organize into tropical cyclones. 4/
"Weaker than average Atlantic trade winds favor more storm development. 5/
"We're in an "active" phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which favors more active hurricane seasons. This cycle began in 1995. 6/
"Climate change is driving ocean temperatures up, and leading to wetter, more intense hurricanes. It's also increasing the chances for storms to rapidly intensify. But it's not leading to more storms overall, based on studies to date. 7/
"Lastly, and NOAA didn't mention this, but, it's 2020. So..."
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FrostKing70

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #172 on: August 13, 2020, 07:09:35 PM »
Earliest J storm on record (previous was August 22nd, 2005).  Luckily, the models are predicting minimal impact to land.

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #173 on: August 13, 2020, 07:28:58 PM »
While the north Atlantic has been quite active, the Pacific has been noticeably quiet.  Consequently, the global season has been on the low side.

http://climatlas.com/tropical/

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #174 on: August 13, 2020, 08:19:10 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #175 on: August 13, 2020, 08:25:48 PM »
Possibly better here since it is not related to the topic per se (and the target topic could use a boost  ;) ):

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1197.msg280867.html#new
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #176 on: August 13, 2020, 08:33:15 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #177 on: August 14, 2020, 07:17:04 AM »
It's a good one vox. I got it. A silent and non-violent protest :).
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #178 on: August 17, 2020, 04:20:22 AM »
Quote
Stu Ostro (@StuOstro) 8/16/20, 8:12 PM
All elements -- late August climatology, large-scale 2020 seasonal factors, intraseasonal ones, the steering flow, and these robust African easterly waves -- are aligning for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity to soon escalate quickly. 
https://twitter.com/stuostro/status/1295151500713484290
Satellite gif at the link.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #179 on: August 17, 2020, 07:04:09 PM »
Need I say more?
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #180 on: August 17, 2020, 10:38:21 PM »
Wait an hour and see what happens! 
And is the orange one gonna get me?  :'(
For that matter, is the red one gonna get me?  :'( :'(
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nanning

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #181 on: August 18, 2020, 06:35:19 AM »
That's still quite far out Tor but I wish that you stay safe.
Archimid seems to get into trouble from the red cross. Direct path over Puerto Rico at >60% chance. Not funny at all.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #182 on: August 19, 2020, 10:30:13 AM »
There seems to be a conveyor belt in operation at the moment:
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #183 on: August 19, 2020, 11:11:27 AM »
I saw a Netflix documentary [Connected, episode 2] recently that claimed that dust blown off the Sahara across the Atlantic helps suppress hurricane development, as well as helping fertilise the Amazon rainforest, and unfortunately helping cause algal blooms off the coast of the USA.

One thing the documentary, and a few articles that I've skimmed on the subject since e.g. this blog  did not flag up is that the Sahara is growing.  Does this mean that more dust is likely to be generated, and that hurricanes may be suppressed to a slightly greater extent?  Or is the degree of expansion (10% between 1920 and 2013) pretty negligible in the overall picture?

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #184 on: August 19, 2020, 02:01:31 PM »
There seems to be a conveyor belt in operation at the moment:

IIRC 05' had a number of 'Cape Verde' storms of which 3 saw early 'recurves' up the coast of Africa and threatening ther Med/NW Europe?

I wonder if this year will see similar 'recurves' if the tropical wave 'conveyor belt' continues into September?

Interesting times ahead!
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #185 on: August 19, 2020, 10:18:16 PM »
... dust blown off the Sahara across the Atlantic helps suppress hurricane development,...

... Does this mean that more dust is likely to be generated, and that hurricanes may be suppressed to a slightly greater extent?  ...
From years of reading the now defunct Cat 6 blog (and it's predecessors), Sahara dust, with associated dry air, definitely helps suppress tropical storm development, and more dust will suppress development more.  There is some seasonality to the dust storms, so its effects wax and wain.

I don't know about the dust to Amazon connection, as most dust that I've 'watched' in too far north - dust regularly reaches the Caribbean, and a couple times this year noticeably reached Texas and the US South (where I live).

The Tropical Tidbits post of 2 days ago talked some about Saharan dust, as I recall.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #186 on: August 20, 2020, 04:47:12 AM »
I would not be surprised to see the highest Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) measure on record for this season in the north Atlantic. It seems to me like the basin is as favorable as the big name years like 2005 and 1933, and we look to have a near-record active September based on the medium-term indicators.

Much worse impacts than a highly active western Pacific season, IMO, because we get less cyclones normally and so many more people here live in shacks and detached homes versus sturdy apartment blocks...

Good source to look at for where tropical cyclones will form: http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/cckwmjo.html
« Last Edit: August 20, 2020, 04:54:41 AM by Darvince »

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #187 on: August 20, 2020, 11:29:25 AM »
Saharan dust (not the dust in Philip Pullman's "His Dark Materials")

... dust blown off the Sahara across the Atlantic helps suppress hurricane development,.......

........ Sahara dust, with associated dry air, definitely helps suppress tropical storm development, and more dust will suppress development more.....................

..... dust regularly reaches the Caribbean......
Extract from NHC Discussion on TD13...
Quote
Overall, the environment looks generally favorable for
strengthening, with the cyclone expected to encounter light- to
moderate shear during forecast period.  However, the guidance
responds to this environment with a wide range of solutions.  The
HWRF/HMON forecast the cyclone to intensify into a major hurricane
by 120 h.  On the other hand, the GFS and ECMWF show the system
degenerating into an open wave by 120 h.  The UKMET and Canadian
models are between these extremes.  The weak GFS solution appears
to be due to forecast dry air entrainment, which is a possibility
as satellite imagery suggests Saharan dust not far from the
cyclone. 
Between these factors and the possibility of land
interaction, the low-confidence intensity forecast is changed
little from the previous advisory.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #188 on: August 20, 2020, 03:01:30 PM »
13 is unlucky for some? Tor seems to be in its sights!
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #189 on: August 20, 2020, 03:13:47 PM »
I would not be surprised to see the highest Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) measure on record for this season in the north Atlantic. It seems to me like the basin is as favorable as the big name years like 2005 and 1933, and we look to have a near-record active September based on the medium-term indicators.

Much worse impacts than a highly active western Pacific season, IMO, because we get less cyclones normally and so many more people here live in shacks and detached homes versus sturdy apartment blocks...

Good source to look at for where tropical cyclones will form: http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/cckwmjo.html

It looks as if we will experience a similar number of storms as the extraordinary years of 1933 and 2005, and possibly exceed those years.  As of yet, the ACE is much lower due to the lack of hurricanes, especially major hurricanes. 

By this date in 2005, there were two fewer storms, but two more hurricanes, and they both became majors (Dennis and Emily).  Additionally, another tropical depression had been lingering over the Bahamas, which eventually was named Katrina. 

1933 got off to a much later start, with only seven named storms by this date, although one reached major hurricane status.  The eighth storm was just starting to form off the coast of Africa which would become one of two strongest and deadliest of the season. 

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #190 on: August 20, 2020, 05:27:06 PM »
Archimid, it would be interesting to hear from you as the tropical cyclone approaches Puerto Rico.
Luckily it seems to veer to the north a bit.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #191 on: August 20, 2020, 05:29:26 PM »
But Jim, I'm not in the cone (yet)!  :-\
(Being 30 km off the leading end of the cone [pictured below {TD13}], however, is not comforting!)

I see 97L has become TD14.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #192 on: August 20, 2020, 05:59:17 PM »
I see 97L has become TD14.

Sure has. Unlucky for Mexico and Texas?
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #193 on: August 20, 2020, 06:12:05 PM »
... dust blown off the Sahara across the Atlantic helps suppress hurricane development,...

... Does this mean that more dust is likely to be generated, and that hurricanes may be suppressed to a slightly greater extent?  ...
From years of reading the now defunct Cat 6 blog (and it's predecessors), Sahara dust, with associated dry air, definitely helps suppress tropical storm development, and more dust will suppress development more.  There is some seasonality to the dust storms, so its effects wax and wain.

I don't know about the dust to Amazon connection, as most dust that I've 'watched' in too far north - dust regularly reaches the Caribbean, and a couple times this year noticeably reached Texas and the US South (where I live).

The Tropical Tidbits post of 2 days ago talked some about Saharan dust, as I recall.
Further to Paddy's question, my wife asked me to got to Mike's Weather Page (a hurricane may be barreling toward us next Wednesday) and right there on the left column was Saharan Air Layer Forecast.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #194 on: August 21, 2020, 07:56:39 AM »
EYE ON THE STORM
Major hurricane could hit Florida Monday, some models suggestAnd U.S. Gulf Coast residents should monitor a second tropical depression that could strengthen to a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane.By Jeff Masters, Ph.D. | Thursday, August 20, 2020
Quote
Tropical Depression Thirteen (TD 13), which formed in the central Atlantic on the evening of Wednesday, August 19, poses a threat as a tropical storm this weekend to the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. TD 13 could affect the Bahamas and Florida as a hurricane on Sunday and Monday, respectively. A Tropical Storm Watch was up for most of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday.

At 11 a.m. EDT Thursday, August 20, TD 13 was located about 750 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands and headed west-northwest at 21 mph. Conditions for development were favorable, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 28 degrees Celsius (82°F) and light wind shear of about 5 knots. However, the system had moved into a drier region of the atmosphere, with a mid-level relative humidity of 60%, and this dry air was interfering with development. Satellite images showed TD 13 with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity slowly growing in organization and areal coverage.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/a-major-hurricane-could-hit-florida-monday-some-models-suggest/
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #195 on: August 21, 2020, 09:19:43 AM »
But Jim, I'm not in the cone (yet)!

The latest 13/14 updates. How about now?
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #196 on: August 21, 2020, 12:37:07 PM »
But Jim, I'm not in the cone (yet)!

The latest 13/14 updates. How about now?

Is that two hurricanes about to collide?

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #197 on: August 21, 2020, 01:18:53 PM »
Is that two hurricanes about to collide?

On the current tracks they aren't going to collide, but they are forecast to make landfall in the lower 48 at almost exactly the same time.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #198 on: August 21, 2020, 01:37:50 PM »
But Jim, I'm not in the cone (yet)!

The latest 13/14 updates. How about now?

Is that two hurricanes about to collide?
Quote from NHC

Quote
I think it's worth noting that
both the UKMET and the DWD, Germany ICON global models are showing
some binary interaction between the depression and Tropical
Depression Thirteen around the 96-120 hr period while both systems
are situated in the Gulf of Mexico.  If this scenario actually
occurs, the interaction could delay or slow tropical depression
Fourteen's landfall over the northwestern Gulf coast.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #199 on: August 21, 2020, 04:18:55 PM »
EYE ON THE STORM
Major hurricane could hit Florida Monday, some models suggestAnd U.S. Gulf Coast residents should monitor a second tropical depression that could strengthen to a tropical storm or a category 1 hurricane.By Jeff Masters, Ph.D. | Thursday, August 20, 2020
Quote
Tropical Depression Thirteen (TD 13), which formed in the central Atlantic on the evening of Wednesday, August 19, poses a threat as a tropical storm this weekend to the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. TD 13 could affect the Bahamas and Florida as a hurricane on Sunday and Monday, respectively. A Tropical Storm Watch was up for most of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday.

At 11 a.m. EDT Thursday, August 20, TD 13 was located about 750 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands and headed west-northwest at 21 mph. Conditions for development were favorable, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 28 degrees Celsius (82°F) and light wind shear of about 5 knots. However, the system had moved into a drier region of the atmosphere, with a mid-level relative humidity of 60%, and this dry air was interfering with development. Satellite images showed TD 13 with a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity slowly growing in organization and areal coverage.
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/a-major-hurricane-could-hit-florida-monday-some-models-suggest/

This is not forecast to become a major hurricane.  Both the GFS and European models have this storm degenerating into a tropical depression as it interacts with land.  In fact, it is only forecast to become a hurricane, if its center remains in the straights between Florida and Cuba, allowing it to strengthen in to a minimal hurricane.  In that scenario, it would miss Florida altogether and make landfall near Mobile.

http://www.brevardtimes.com/2020/08/noaa-tropical-storm-laura-track-spaghetti-models/