US Hurricane Experts Predict 'Extremely Active' Storm Seasonhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/07/hurricane-experts-noaa-storm-seasonhttps://arstechnica.com/science/2020/08/updated-hurricane-season-outlooks-expect-plenty-more-storms/NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said there could be up to 25 storms which have sustained winds of 39mph or greater. Storms which hit this threshold are named by the agency.
Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center, said the combined intensity and duration of all storms during the season is predicted to be much higher than the threshold for an “extremely active” season.
“We’ve never forecast up to 25 storms,” Bell said in a press briefing. “So this is the first time.”
The previous high was in 2005, when the agency predicted a maximum of 21 named storms.
Of the 25 possible named storms, NOAA estimates seven to 11 could become hurricanes, which have winds of at least 74mph. The agency also forecast that three to six storms could become major hurricanes, with winds of 111mph or more.
The increase in predicted hurricanes is attributed to warmer than usual sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, combined with the wind conditions.
----------------------------------------------
Researchers Find Link Between Atlantic Hurricanes and Weather System in East Asiahttps://phys.org/news/2020-08-link-atlantic-hurricanes-weather-east.htmlResearchers led by the University of Iowa have identified a connection between a climate system in East Asia and the frequency of tropical storms that develop in the Atlantic Ocean—which can strengthen into hurricanes that threaten the United States.
In a new study, the researchers say the East Asian Subtropical Jet Stream (EASJ) an upper-level river of wind that originates in East Asia and moves west to east across the globe, carries with it an atmospheric phenomenon called a Rossby wave.
Rossby waves occur naturally within the Earth's oceans and atmosphere, forming because of the planet's rotation. The researchers say Rossby waves hitch a ride on the EASJ to the North Atlantic when tropical cyclones in the Atlantic are most likely to form. The waves affect wind shear, a key element in the formation of tropical storms.
"When the EASJ is stronger, it can enhance this pattern, which leads to stronger teleconnections and stronger wind shear in the North Atlantic," explains says Wei Zhang, a climate scientist at IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering at Iowa. "That can suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone formation."
"These jets act as a conduit for the signal originating in Asia, so it can propagate over the Atlantic."
The scientists observed nearly 40 years of Atlantic tropical cyclones during prime formation season, from August to November, and their connection during the same time period with EASJ activity between July to October.
Wei Zhang et al,
The East Asian Subtropical Jet Stream and Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, Geophysical Research Letters (2020)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020GL088851-----------------------------------------------
On a personal note.
TS Isaias did a number on my state (Connecticut). Over 750, 000 customers - 2 million people - without power. 44 major roads within 10 miles are blocked by downed trees and powerlines. Don't expect full recovery till next Tuesday.
Most microwave repeater towers failed because of lack of auxiliary power. No phone or internet for last 72 hrs. Coverage still spotty.
12 hrs before the storm hit local weather services predicted 20-40 mph winds. Actually hit with 60-80 mph winds and multiple tornadoes.
Since 2011 (last hurricane) utilities have added a surcharge to the bill to pay for 'hardening' the infrastructure from extreme weather (tree branch removal near wires). Apparently that all went to executive bonuses because the infrastructure failed worse than the last hurricane.And anybody working from home because of COVID-19 is screwed out of a weeks pay.
I am not amused.
Local road
On a positive note. I tied the corn (maize) in my garden to the wire fence they were growing next to with bungee cords. They all survived. So I'll have 3 dozen ears of sweet corn in a week or two.