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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #150 on: July 23, 2020, 11:27:55 PM »
Hurricane Douglas to give Hawaii a bit of a pasting. This is an unusual occurence.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP3+shtml/232042.shtml?
Key Messages:

1.  Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect
portions of the state beginning on Sunday.  Interests on the
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas
and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days.
Watches could be issued on Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/2100Z 14.1N 137.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 12H  24/0600Z 15.0N 139.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  24/1800Z 16.2N 142.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  25/0600Z 17.4N 145.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  25/1800Z 18.5N 149.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  26/0600Z 19.4N 152.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  26/1800Z 20.1N 154.9W   65 KT  75 MPH...NEAR HAWAII
 96H  27/1800Z 21.0N 160.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  28/1800Z 21.5N 167.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
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FrostKing70

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #151 on: July 24, 2020, 04:19:54 PM »
Now we have Hanna, with another system near Africa likely to get named in a few days.   

And it is still July!

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #152 on: July 24, 2020, 05:56:32 PM »
Douglas is the 2nd Hurricane to hit Hawaii in the last 2 years. This is unusual, making it the 6th notable event since 1950. Climate change?

Notable hurricanes in Hawaii

Hurricane Nina (1957): The category one hurricane formed south of Hawaii. Hurricane Nina continued to move north when it took a sharp turn to the west towards the Island chain. The hurricane did not actually hit land. At its closest approach, Nina was centered about 120 miles west-southwest of Kauai, but still created notable damage and dropped over 20 inches of rain. Oahu was also strongly affected by the storm, with moderate rains and 45 MPH winds.

Hurricane Dot (1959): This category four hurricane entered the south Pacific just south of Hawaii. Moving west-northwest on August 5 of that year, Dot abruptly changed directions and began traveling northwest towards Kauai. When Dot passed over Kauai on August 6, it had been downgraded to a category one storm, but still packed wind gusts over 100 MPH. The storm caused minor damage to Hawaii, Oahu and Kauai.

Hurricane Iwa (1982): At the time, this category one hurricane was the most damaging to hit Hawaii. It passed just west of Kauai, causing severe property damage, minor physical injuries and one death. Up to $250 million dollars in damage was created.

Hurricane Iniki (1992): This category four hurricane was the most devastating hurricane to hit Hawaii. Borne from El Nino, Iniki traveled on a west-northwest course and continued to strengthen. On September 11, the eye of the hurricane passed directly over Kauai, devastating the island. It caused over $1.8 billion in damage, and was responsible for six deaths.

And...
Hurricane Lane (2018)was a powerful tropical cyclone that brought torrential rainfall and strong winds to Hawaii during late August 2018. The storm was the wettest on record in Hawaii, with peak rainfall accumulations of 58 in (1,473 mm) along the eastern slopes of Mauna Loa
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #153 on: July 24, 2020, 06:38:23 PM »
With so few numbers it is hard to establish any sort of trend.  Tropical cyclone movement over the middle of the Pacific is quite random, and direct hit compared to a near (or total) miss is subject to arbitrary movements.  Records are also sparse prior to 1950, so it is rather difficult to ascribe any effect due to climate change.  The only recorded hurricanes to directly hit the islands, listed by strength/damage occurred in 1992 (iniki), 1871 (unnamed cat. 3), 1982 (Iwa), and 1959 (Dot).  Several others made near misses, including Lane in 2018, Hiki in 1950, Jimina in 2003, and Iselle in 2014.  Too little data to make any meaningful assertion.

FrostKing70

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #154 on: July 24, 2020, 07:30:56 PM »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #155 on: July 24, 2020, 07:51:25 PM »
Quote
Douglas is the 2nd Hurricane to hit Hawaii in the last 2 years.
Counting chickens, I see.  Douglas hasn't arrived in Hawaiʻi yet.  It may well downgrade to a Tropical Storm before Sunday afternoon.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2020, 09:11:57 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #156 on: July 24, 2020, 08:03:13 PM »
Quote
Douglas is the 2nd Hurricane to hit Hawaii in the last 2 years.
Counting chickens, I see.  Douglas hasn't arrived in Hawai'i yet.  It may well downgrade to a Tropical Storm before Sunday afternoon.
As has happened to many a hurricane that has ventured so far into the Pacific.

wdmn

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #157 on: July 25, 2020, 05:32:07 AM »
Tropical Storm Hanna looks like it's going to pull a rapid escalation to hurricane status before making landfall in Texas. The advisory this morning (as well as all previous) still had it making landfall as a tropical storm. Seems like the models are still having trouble with the sometimes explosive development of these storms.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #158 on: July 25, 2020, 08:29:38 PM »
Tropical Storm Hanna looks like it's going to pull a rapid escalation to hurricane status before making landfall in Texas.

Moving pictures of the Texas storm surge:

https://twitter.com/brianemfinger/status/1287016782574886913
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morganism

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #159 on: July 25, 2020, 08:51:14 PM »
Excellent TX weather forcaster

https://spacecityweather.com/

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #160 on: July 25, 2020, 11:04:58 PM »
Quote
Douglas is the 2nd Hurricane to hit Hawaii in the last 2 years.
Counting chickens, I see.  Douglas hasn't arrived in Hawai'i yet.  It may well downgrade to a Tropical Storm before Sunday afternoon.
As has happened to many a hurricane that has ventured so far into the Pacific.
Latest update from NHC.

Key Messages

1. Douglas continues to approach the main Hawaiian Islands,
potentially passing dangerously close to, or over, the islands
late tonight through Sunday night. The close passage of Douglas
brings a triple threat of hazards, including but not limited to
damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and dangerously high surf,
especially along east facing shores.

2. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Douglas, and remain prepared for changes to the
forecast. Due to Douglas' angle of approach to the islands, any
small changes in the track could lead to significant differences in
where the worst weather occurs. Even if the center remains
offshore, severe impacts could still be realized over the islands,
as they extend well away from the center.

3. Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of
the wind through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These
acceleration areas will shift with time as Douglas passes near the
islands. Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of
high rise buildings.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  25/1500Z 19.1N 148.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  26/0000Z 19.7N 150.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  26/1200Z 20.6N 153.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  27/0000Z 21.4N 156.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  27/1200Z 22.1N 159.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  28/0000Z 22.7N 162.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  28/1200Z 23.2N 166.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  29/1200Z 24.1N 172.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  30/1200Z 25.3N 179.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #161 on: July 27, 2020, 10:01:49 PM »
Douglas missed Hawaii by 50 miles.
But it was (is still) a hurricane.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #162 on: July 28, 2020, 01:57:14 PM »
Eric Fisher: "[U.S] East coast water is notably warmer than average for this time of year thanks to the hot July. Particularly here in New England.”
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/1287846261438271488
Image below.

Dan Satterfield: "This means trouble for any tropical cyclones coming up the coast in the next 8 weeks..."
https://twitter.com/wildweatherdan/status/1287855286703788041
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #163 on: July 28, 2020, 04:46:01 PM »
Not a storm - yet..

Quote
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An elongated area of low pressure located about 500 miles east of
the Windward Islands is producing a wide area of showers and
thunderstorms. Although recent satellite imagery suggests that the
system does not yet have a well-defined center, data from NOAA buoy
41040 indicate that the system is producing winds near
tropical-storm-force. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon and will
provide more information about the current state of the disturbance.

Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional
development and a tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to
form during the next couple of days while the system moves
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and approaches the Leeward
Islands. Regardless of development, locally heavy rain is likely
across portions of the Lesser Antilles beginning later today and
continuing through Wednesday, especially in the Leeward Islands.
These conditions will spread westward to the Virgin Islands and
Puerto Rico Wednesday night and Thursday.
Interests on these islands
should continue to monitor the progress of this system and tropical
storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area
later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Zelinsky

Maybe one day Trump will get that inhabitants of Puerto Rico are US Ctiizens
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #164 on: July 28, 2020, 06:05:43 PM »
Quote
Jamie Groh (@AlteredJamie) 7/28/20, 11:30 AM
Looks like Florida could be in for a tropical storm this weekend - the exact same time frame that @Astro_Doug & @AstroBehnken are scheduled to splash down concluding the #SpaceX #CrewDragon #Demo2 mission.

However, still lots of uncertainty of development & in forecast track.
https://twitter.com/alteredjamie/status/1288134804622512128


NWS Miami (@NWSMiami) 7/28/20, 11:15 AM

An [area] of disturbed weather (currently east of the Windward Islands) is being monitored for potential storm development. Please be mindful that there is much uncertainty in the forecast, especially further in the forecast period. Have a plan regardless of the forecast track! #flwx
https://twitter.com/nwsmiami/status/1288130963260633088
Image below.
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The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #165 on: July 29, 2020, 01:34:27 PM »
Douglas missed Hawaii by 50 miles.
But it was (is still) a hurricane.

We can add that to the list of near misses for the islands.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #166 on: July 29, 2020, 06:41:30 PM »
The "official" track of PTC 9 now puts 'me' just beyond the end of the center line - so about 6 days out.   I'm surprised they have the storm crossing Hispaniola and not getting torn to shreds, just weakened some.  By the way, the Navy site has a wonderful graphic which shows, among other things, how lopsided the wind field will be. (click to enlarge)
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #167 on: July 30, 2020, 09:37:40 AM »
I'm surprised they have the storm crossing Hispaniola and not getting torn to shreds, just weakened some. 

See lat night's tropical tidbits video for a discussion of this. Its because the circulation is large and disorganised and a lot of it stays over water either because it stays large compared to Hispaniola, or if it organises and shrinks, there'll probably be a jog to the north of Hispaniola.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #168 on: July 30, 2020, 04:51:09 PM »
Yes, the course of the storm will have a huge impact on how it emerges on the other side of the island.  If it traverses directly over the island, it will get "torn to shreds."  However, if the center of circulation stays to the north of the island, it will likely experience some weakening, but strengthen again once it passes.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #169 on: August 02, 2020, 08:29:14 PM »
Eye of the storm blog is finally up and running for those who formally watched Category six.
 https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/07/updates-on-hurricane-isaias-from-eye-on-the-storm/

Forecast for Isaias
Quote
Satellite images on Saturday afternoon showed that Isaias had a large area of intense thunderstorms along the east side of the center of circulation. Isaias was in a region dominated by southwesterly upper-level winds associated with a large-scale trough of low pressure. These winds were creating unfavorable conditions for intensification, with high wind shear of 20 – 25 knots. In addition, this shear was driving dry air from the west side of the hurricane into its center, keeping heavy thunderstorms limited on its west side. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were a warm 29 – 29.5 degrees Celsius (84 – 85°F), and Isaias was embedded in a moderately dry atmosphere with a mid-level relative humidity of 50 – 55%. Overall, these conditions favor only slow changes to Isaias’s strength through Monday. Most of the intensity models favor slow weakening, as does the official NHC forecast.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #170 on: August 07, 2020, 11:56:53 PM »
US Hurricane Experts Predict 'Extremely Active' Storm Season
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/07/hurricane-experts-noaa-storm-season
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/08/updated-hurricane-season-outlooks-expect-plenty-more-storms/

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said there could be up to 25 storms which have sustained winds of 39mph or greater. Storms which hit this threshold are named by the agency.

Gerry Bell, the lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the Climate Prediction Center, said the combined intensity and duration of all storms during the season is predicted to be much higher than the threshold for an “extremely active” season.

“We’ve never forecast up to 25 storms,” Bell said in a press briefing. “So this is the first time.”

The previous high was in 2005, when the agency predicted a maximum of 21 named storms.

Of the 25 possible named storms, NOAA estimates seven to 11 could become hurricanes, which have winds of at least 74mph. The agency also forecast that three to six storms could become major hurricanes, with winds of 111mph or more.

The increase in predicted hurricanes is attributed to warmer than usual sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, combined with the wind conditions.

----------------------------------------------

Researchers Find Link Between Atlantic Hurricanes and Weather System in East Asia
https://phys.org/news/2020-08-link-atlantic-hurricanes-weather-east.html

Researchers led by the University of Iowa have identified a connection between a climate system in East Asia and the frequency of tropical storms that develop in the Atlantic Ocean—which can strengthen into hurricanes that threaten the United States.

In a new study, the researchers say the East Asian Subtropical Jet Stream (EASJ) an upper-level river of wind that originates in East Asia and moves west to east across the globe, carries with it an atmospheric phenomenon called a Rossby wave.

Rossby waves occur naturally within the Earth's oceans and atmosphere, forming because of the planet's rotation. The researchers say Rossby waves hitch a ride on the EASJ to the North Atlantic when tropical cyclones in the Atlantic are most likely to form. The waves affect wind shear, a key element in the formation of tropical storms.

"When the EASJ is stronger, it can enhance this pattern, which leads to stronger teleconnections and stronger wind shear in the North Atlantic," explains says Wei Zhang, a climate scientist at IIHR-Hydroscience & Engineering at Iowa. "That can suppress Atlantic tropical cyclone formation."

"These jets act as a conduit for the signal originating in Asia, so it can propagate over the Atlantic."

The scientists observed nearly 40 years of Atlantic tropical cyclones during prime formation season, from August to November, and their connection during the same time period with EASJ activity between July to October.



Wei Zhang et al, The East Asian Subtropical Jet Stream and Atlantic Tropical Cyclones, Geophysical Research Letters (2020)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2020GL088851

-----------------------------------------------

On a personal note.

TS Isaias did a number on my state (Connecticut). Over 750, 000 customers - 2 million people - without power. 44 major roads within 10 miles are blocked by downed trees and powerlines. Don't expect full recovery till next Tuesday.

Most microwave repeater towers failed because of lack of auxiliary power. No phone or internet for last 72 hrs. Coverage still spotty.

12 hrs before the storm hit local weather services predicted 20-40 mph winds. Actually hit with 60-80 mph winds and multiple tornadoes.

Since 2011 (last hurricane) utilities have added a surcharge to the bill to pay for 'hardening' the infrastructure from extreme weather (tree branch removal near wires). Apparently that all went to executive bonuses because the infrastructure failed worse than the last hurricane.And anybody working from home because of COVID-19 is screwed out of a weeks pay.

I am not amused.  >:(




Local road

On a positive note. I tied the corn (maize) in my garden to the wire fence they were growing next to with bungee cords. They all survived. So I'll have 3 dozen ears of sweet corn in a week or two.
« Last Edit: August 08, 2020, 03:16:40 AM by vox_mundi »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #171 on: August 08, 2020, 03:52:01 PM »
Andrew Freedman on Twitter: "[THREAD] Why the new NOAA hurricane seasonal outlook is so dire.
Note: We've already had a record 9 named storms so far. Typically, the ninth-named storm forms in early Oct. It's early August. After the 21st named storm, we go into the Greek alphabet.
[WaPo article at the link.]
https://twitter.com/afreedma/status/1291420697533661184
"Sea surface temperatures in tropical Atlantic, along East Coast, and in Caribbean are well above avg. (in some cases record warm). That's fuel ready and waiting for storms to tap into. 2/
“A developing La Nina event in the tropical Pacific may lead to reduced wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, making it a more favorable environment for tropical storms and hurricanes. 3/
"An unusually active West African Monsoon season is bringing more thunderstorms off the west coast of Africa, which can then organize into tropical cyclones. 4/
"Weaker than average Atlantic trade winds favor more storm development. 5/
"We're in an "active" phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), which favors more active hurricane seasons. This cycle began in 1995. 6/
"Climate change is driving ocean temperatures up, and leading to wetter, more intense hurricanes. It's also increasing the chances for storms to rapidly intensify. But it's not leading to more storms overall, based on studies to date. 7/
"Lastly, and NOAA didn't mention this, but, it's 2020. So..."
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