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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #200 on: August 21, 2020, 04:54:58 PM »
A collage.  I'm in a cone, but no longer near its center.  Hurricane Michael (Cat 5) was much closer.  But this is 5 days out.   

Edit:  The 11 o'clock update has (just named) Laura as a hurricane on Wednesday landfall.  I am just barely inside the cone now.  Both storms are shoved westward ~50 km on day 5 (compared to earlier this morning).
« Last Edit: August 21, 2020, 05:23:18 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #201 on: August 21, 2020, 05:38:10 PM »
Those cones look like the legs of a transparent woman with high socks on. And a humongous monster that's surreptitiously trying to bite her cones legs from behind and below.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #202 on: August 22, 2020, 05:03:39 AM »
Then there was Marco (former TD 14); NHC thinks it will be only a tropical storm. 

Meanwhile, Laura is projected to make landfall in Louisiana.  I am no longer in the cone, but will continue paying attention.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #203 on: August 22, 2020, 09:28:39 AM »
I am no longer in the cone, but will continue paying attention.

I imagine Archimid will be paying very close attention to Laura though?
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The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #204 on: August 22, 2020, 01:50:34 PM »
The current trajectory has Laura moving directly over the greater Antilles.  This will likely result in a big rain maker, but inhibit any strengthening.  At this time, it is entirely possible that the storm could be torn apart before it ever reaches the Gulf. 

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #205 on: August 23, 2020, 01:18:09 AM »
Quite bizarre! Laura (currently west of Puerto Rico) and Marco (west of Cuba) [click to run]
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #206 on: August 23, 2020, 01:36:09 AM »
I was wondering if someone here or in the MSM would bring up the Fujiwhara Effect wrt to these two storms, and...

https://www.kbtx.com/2020/08/22/the-fujiwhara-effect-and-will-marco-and-laura-combine-to-create-a-megastorm/

The Fujiwhara Effect and “will Marco and Laura combine to create a megastorm?”


Apparently they should stay far enough away from each other for it, but one could slow and the other could speed up, I presume.

Anybody with the chops to comment on this in a more informed and intelligent way than myself would be most welcome to do so  :)
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #207 on: August 23, 2020, 01:52:19 AM »
Tropical Storm Laura could intensify to major hurricane status on approach to U.S. Gulf CoastBy Jeff Masters, Ph.D. | Aug 22, 2020
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/tropical-storm-laura-could-intensify-to-major-hurricane-status-on-approach-to-u-s-gulf-coast/

Will Laura and Marco perform a Fujiwara dance in the Gulf of Mexico?
Quote
When two tropical cyclones approach within about 900 miles of each other, they tend to rotate counter-clockwise around a common center, then go their separate ways, in a process called the Fujiwara effect. In rare cases they may merge into one storm, but the resulting storm will not be stronger than either of the original two storms, since wind shear from each weakens the other.

More commonly, when two storms interact, one will weaken or destroy the other with its wind shear, just as Hurricane Wilma did to Tropical Storm Alpha in 2005. The Saturday morning model runs showed limited support for a Fujiwara interaction between Marco and Laura.
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The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #208 on: August 23, 2020, 03:33:15 AM »
I was wondering if someone here or in the MSM would bring up the Fujiwhara Effect wrt to these two storms, and...

https://www.kbtx.com/2020/08/22/the-fujiwhara-effect-and-will-marco-and-laura-combine-to-create-a-megastorm/

The Fujiwhara Effect and “will Marco and Laura combine to create a megastorm?”


Apparently they should stay far enough away from each other for it, but one could slow and the other could speed up, I presume.

Anybody with the chops to comment on this in a more informed and intelligent way than myself would be most welcome to do so  :)

The Fujiwara effect is unlikely as the Gulf is too small an environment in which this effect could occur.  The most likely interaction, should the storms continue on a near collision course, would be for one storm to dominate the other.  In this case, that would probably be Marco.  Marco would pull in upper level winds from Laura, leading to a dissipation of her in the Gulf.  Marco would be lucky to maintain its current strength during the encounter, as the interaction between the two is usually mutually destructive.  Since tropical storms tend to strengthen during warm, calm seas, high pressure, and low winds, the circulation of each results in upwelling if colder, deeper waters, low pressure, and wind shear.  We shall see what happens in this particular case.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #209 on: August 23, 2020, 04:30:49 AM »
re:  The Fujiwhara Effect

There is a brief mention about the possibility in yesterday's Tropical Tidbits starting about 16:40.  Because Marco is moving faster than previously forecast (today's post), they will likely remain far apart and not affect each other in this way.

Because the two storms are forecast to cross paths, Marco will cool the surface waters some, which will mean Laura will have a little less heat to work with.  On the other two hands ( :) ), Marco is traveling to beat the band so won't cool the water a great deal and the Gulf of Mexico often has a lot of deep heat (or words to that effect), so there is heat to spare.
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sidd

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #210 on: August 23, 2020, 05:56:17 AM »
I fear for New Orleans, again.

sidd

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #211 on: August 23, 2020, 04:00:11 PM »
So next week could see only the 3rd time 2 name storms were in the GOM at the same time (since 1851?) ?

I also worry about the impacts on that northern coast of the G.O.M. should Laura find the waters unmolested by Marco's passing?

We have seen, this past decade, just how fast storms can 'Bomb' these days and we have the remembrance of what Katrina did from Aug 23rd in 05'.....

I feel this is definitely one to watch esp. in these days of Covid.....
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #212 on: August 23, 2020, 10:40:04 PM »
Marco is officially a hurricane:
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #213 on: August 23, 2020, 11:03:52 PM »
Will be interesting (and nerve racking!) to see how much Laura intensifies.   Dr Masters indicates a Cat 3 or 4 is not out of the realm of possibility.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/section/eye-on-the-storm/

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/#13L

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #214 on: August 23, 2020, 11:06:28 PM »
I was wondering if someone here or in the MSM would bring up the Fujiwhara Effect wrt to these two storms, and...

https://www.kbtx.com/2020/08/22/the-fujiwhara-effect-and-will-marco-and-laura-combine-to-create-a-megastorm/

The Fujiwhara Effect and “will Marco and Laura combine to create a megastorm?”


Apparently they should stay far enough away from each other for it, but one could slow and the other could speed up, I presume.

Anybody with the chops to comment on this in a more informed and intelligent way than myself would be most welcome to do so  :)

The Fujiwara effect is unlikely as the Gulf is too small an environment in which this effect could occur.  The most likely interaction, should the storms continue on a near collision course, would be for one storm to dominate the other.  In this case, that would probably be Marco.  Marco would pull in upper level winds from Laura, leading to a dissipation of her in the Gulf.  Marco would be lucky to maintain its current strength during the encounter, as the interaction between the two is usually mutually destructive.  Since tropical storms tend to strengthen during warm, calm seas, high pressure, and low winds, the circulation of each results in upwelling if colder, deeper waters, low pressure, and wind shear.  We shall see what happens in this particular case.

The idea of two storms merging to create a "megastorm" is a bit hard to believe.  The shear created by each storm weakens the other storm.  Dr Masters mentions this in one of his posts on YCC.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #215 on: August 24, 2020, 01:47:58 AM »
Hurricane Laura


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020082318&fh=6

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Laura to reach 105 mph Category 2 intensity on Wednesday over the Gulf of Mexico.

However, there is a chance that Laura may attain major hurricane status as a Category 3 or stronger hurricane, the tropical system set to be located in an environment favorable for rapid intensification due to the unusually warm ocean waters combined with weak upper-level winds.

Laura is not only likely to be a more intense storm than Marco at landfall, but also substantially larger, bringing impacts over a much broader area.

Laura is something to watch even for residents of Houston in case the track continues shifting westward.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/08/23/hurricane-double-threat-gulf/?outputType=amp

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/hurricane-marco-forms-in-gulf-of-mexico-ts-laura-a-formidable-threat-to-u-s/
« Last Edit: August 24, 2020, 02:02:08 AM by vox_mundi »
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #216 on: August 24, 2020, 05:30:11 AM »
Marco has weakened, and is now back to tropical storm force. Nonetheless:

Quote
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for....
* Morgan City Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River
« Last Edit: August 24, 2020, 02:44:17 PM by Jim Hunt »
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #217 on: August 24, 2020, 06:07:25 AM »

Quote
The 6Z Sunday, August 23, forecast of the COAMPS-TC model, which made the best 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-day intensity forecasts of any model in 2019, predicted Laura would traverse Cuba, reorganize over the Gulf of Mexico, and peak as a category 3 hurricane shortly before landfall Wednesday night in Louisiana. The COAMPS-TC was the third-best track model in 2019, behind the European model and UKMET model. (Image credit: Naval Research Laboratory)

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/08/hurricane-marco-forms-in-gulf-of-mexico-ts-laura-a-formidable-threat-to-u-s/
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #218 on: August 24, 2020, 08:55:20 AM »
Dear Archimid, were you on Puerto Rico when "Laura" went by?
If so, could you please tell us about any damage, notable events, differences from last time?

Good recent overview:
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/08/22/tropical-storm-laura-marco-path-gulf-mexico-hurricane-status/3418693001/
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #219 on: August 24, 2020, 02:32:47 PM »
Meanwhile, in the Pacific, typhoon Bavi looks like it will sideswipe the Korean Peninsula
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #220 on: August 24, 2020, 04:37:57 PM »
Tropical Storm (soon-to-be-hurricane) Laura is moving at a hefty 21 mph.  At that speed, intensification beyond a category 2 is unlikely, especially if it approaches Marco near landfall.  Should Laura slow considerable and spent more time over the warm Gulf waters, then it could intensify into a cat. 3 storm. 

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #221 on: August 24, 2020, 05:34:32 PM »
If I lived in Chǒngju or Sōnch'ōn, North Korea, I wouldn't say "sideswipe"!

It's like saying "Marco is predicted to miss (northern) Louisiana and Laura is predicted to miss (easternmost) Louisiana," only leaving the parentheticals out.  :P
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #222 on: August 24, 2020, 05:58:51 PM »
If I lived in Chǒngju or Sōnch'ōn, North Korea, I wouldn't say "sideswipe"!

It's like saying "Marco is predicted to miss (northern) Louisiana and Laura is predicted to miss (easternmost) Louisiana," only leaving the parentheticals out.  :P
Being sideswiped by a D8 bulldozer might be less painful than a full frontal squelch.

Meanwhile - Marco being a typical male is degenerating, but Laura....

Quotes from https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Quote
The shear is not forecast to abate in the foreseeable future, and
the simulated satellite imagery in the GFS and ECMWF suggests that
Marco will degenerate into a remnant low on Tuesday. The latest NHC
forecast is near the various consensus aids, which shows the cyclone
weakening to a tropical depression late tonight. Based on the
updated intensity forecast, tropical storm conditions are no longer
expected to be produced by Marco over the central portions of the
Louisiana coast, and the Tropical Storm Warnings for those
locations have been discontinued.

Meanwhile Laura.....
Quote

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 21.2N  80.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  25/0000Z 22.2N  82.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  25/1200Z 23.6N  86.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  26/0000Z 25.2N  88.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  26/1200Z 26.8N  91.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  27/0000Z 28.7N  92.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  27/1200Z 31.2N  93.3W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 96H  28/1200Z 36.0N  90.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  29/1200Z 37.5N  81.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #223 on: August 24, 2020, 10:47:09 PM »
Marco is expected to downgrade to a Depression before making landfall, so there won't (apparently) be two land-falling hurricanes (or tropical storms+) on a single state within about 2 days, after all.  It will be "two land-falling tropical systems", though!  :) [a reference]
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #224 on: August 25, 2020, 03:17:33 AM »
In Ireland we've scarcely seen the back of Ellen , and along comes Francis , more water , less wind is the forecast . Rain steady moderate , wind ENE 5-6 atm , roof tied down ..
  5 days apart named storms in August in Ireland is unusual . I think I see another one coming as well .. b.c.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #225 on: August 25, 2020, 10:18:34 AM »
In Ireland we've scarcely seen the back of Ellen , and along comes Francis

Likewise here in Kernow:

https://V2G.co.uk/2020/08/storm-francis-follows-hot-on-the-heels-of-ellen/

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #226 on: August 25, 2020, 07:08:03 PM »
European model aims #Laura at Houston Texas, as a major hurricane.
Quote
Eric Berger (@SpaceCityWX) 8/24/20, 10:22 PM
Seeing a lot of variations on this theme today. Is there a chance he is right? You bet. But most data available now indicates a track east of Houston. The European model is tremendous, but it’s not the be-all and end-all. Trust @NHC_Atlantic to make the best possible forecast.
https://twitter.com/spacecitywx/status/1298083192281456646

Aaron Tuttle (@AaronTuttleOK) 8/24/20, 9:13 PM

European ensemble run. It's time to evacuate #Houston. Potential Category 4 or 5 hurricane arrives late Wednesday. You can always return if it shifts course a hair, but riding it out is not the best option, nor waiting until the last minute. #txwx #houwx #HurricaneLaura
https://twitter.com/aarontuttleok/status/1298065846506594305
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #227 on: August 25, 2020, 08:24:33 PM »
In Ireland we've scarcely seen the back of Ellen , and along comes Francis , more water , less wind is the forecast . Rain steady moderate , wind ENE 5-6 atm , roof tied down ..
  5 days apart named storms in August in Ireland is unusual . I think I see another one coming as well .. b.c.
GFS says one next Monday & then the remains of Laura on Wednesday 3 Sept.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #228 on: August 25, 2020, 08:27:37 PM »
Menawhile Typhoon Bavi now set to scrub the West coast of the Korean Penibnsula before slamming into the N Korea / China border region at 85 knots.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #229 on: August 25, 2020, 08:29:23 PM »
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #230 on: August 26, 2020, 04:14:59 AM »
Hurricane Laura August 25, 2020
NWS WPC: "Hurricane Laura is forecast to make landfall near the Texas/Louisiana border early Thursday morning. As Laura moves across the country, heavy rainfall will occur from the Gulf Coast, to the Mississippi Valley, and east into the Ohio Valley. Flooding and flash flooding is likely.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/nwswpc/status/1298387302050410497
First image below.

"Hurricane #Laura will intensify all the way to the coast and forecast to be a MAJOR storm. Be ready by bedtime tonight. Impacts will go far inland. Have supplies for 7 days. If told to evacuate, do it. This is a life threatening storm.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/jacquijerastv/status/1298288500098371584
Images below.  Satellite pic at the link.

FEMA Region 6: "If you live in Texas and are looking for the latest evacuation orders visit: https://gov.texas.gov/hurricane  for the latest news. #Laura #Texas"
https://mobile.twitter.com/femaregion6/status/1298356897012228096
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #231 on: August 26, 2020, 02:09:07 PM »
Well Laura is now Cat 3 so our first Atlantic Basin 'Major' of the year!

She does appear to be 'bombing' presently so Cast 4 by local sunset is not out of the question...

She's still a little misshapen and the center keeps having trachoidal wobbles (like a spinning top does before it falls over?) so trying to pin down landfall 'by eye' is a tad tricky!

One to watch guys!!!
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #232 on: August 26, 2020, 04:01:12 PM »
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #233 on: August 26, 2020, 04:37:53 PM »
My guardian’s daughter lives right where this is targeted.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #234 on: August 26, 2020, 05:24:44 PM »
Hope she's safe Tom .. latest NHC forecast is category 4 at landfall .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #235 on: August 26, 2020, 05:45:01 PM »
Quote
National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) 8/26/20, 11:14 AM
Here are the 10 AM CDT Key Messages for #Laura, expected to become a category 4 hurricane before landfall. Conditions will rapidly deteriorate along the coast in a few hours. Preparations to protect life and property need to be completed.
https://twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1298640015463821312
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #236 on: August 26, 2020, 05:55:27 PM »
Further to the 10 am CDT update, the Discussion includes
Quote
Laura is likely to continue strengthening today while it moves over
warm waters of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and the vertical
wind shear remains low.  Laura's intensity could level-off by this
evening due to the possibility of an eyewall replacement cycle
and the expected increase in shear around the time of landfall.
Even if the rate of strengthening eases, Laura is expected to be
an extremely powerful category 4 hurricane when it reaches the
northwestern Gulf coast.  After landfall, rapid weakening will
occur, but Laura will bring a swath of damaging winds well inland
over western Louisiana and eastern Texas. The UKMET and ECMWF models
suggest that there is some chance that Laura re-intensifies as a
tropical cyclone off the mid-Atlantic coast ...
...
Key Messages:

1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 30 miles inland from the immediate
coastline. ...
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dnem

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #237 on: August 26, 2020, 06:00:24 PM »
The area where the eyewall is predicted to come ashore, and to the right of there, is remarkably sparsely developed. Probably one of best stretches of coast in the Gulf that could be impacted. Not that it is totally empty and there are obviously plenty of people at great risk.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #238 on: August 26, 2020, 06:26:10 PM »
The area where the eyewall is predicted to come ashore, and to the right of there, is remarkably sparsely developed. Probably one of best stretches of coast in the Gulf that could be impacted. Not that it is totally empty and there are obviously plenty of people at great risk.

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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #239 on: August 26, 2020, 06:26:30 PM »
It will be running over a lot of rigs out there ...





------------------------------------

Hurricane Laura to Hit Texas, Louisiana as Category 4 with 'Unsurvivable Storm Surge'

PORT ARTHUR, Texas — Hurricane Laura is expected to be an "extremely powerful Category 4 hurricane" with "unsurvivable storm surge" when it reaches the Gulf Coast on Wednesday night and early Thursday, the hurricane center said in its 10 a.m. CDT update.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/260857.shtml

... STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

- Johnson Bayou LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge including Calcasieu Lake...15-20 ft
- Sea Rim State Park TX to Johnson Bayou LA including Sabine Lake...10-15 ft
- Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge to Intracoastal City LA...10-15 ft
- Intracoastal City LA to Morgan City including Vermilion Bay...8-12 ft
- Port Bolivar TX to Sea Rim State Park...6-9 ft
- Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-7 ft
- Freeport TX to Port Bolivar including Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
- Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft
- Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #240 on: August 26, 2020, 07:37:41 PM »

Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
·
9m
New plane entering #Laura is finding surface wind estimates of 130-135 mph, which would make Laura a Category 4 hurricane.
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FrostKing70

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #241 on: August 26, 2020, 07:58:25 PM »
Now at 140 MPH

from NHC:

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 92.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

Archimid

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #242 on: August 26, 2020, 08:35:14 PM »
nanning and Jim, sorry for not getting back to you earlier. Covid 19 seems to occupy most of my thoughts these days.

These types of storm are common and they usually cause no significant damage. In fact, I took full advantage of the abundant rain followed by abundant light situation that arise to lay down some fertilizer in my garden.

It is worth pointing out that prior to Maria an small event like this would almost certainly mean I would lose power. This time around the power held steady.

It also serves to point out a few maintance jobs that I'm slacking behind, like clogged drains.

That was Laura the tropical storm. Laura the Cat 4 hurricane is something else.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #243 on: August 26, 2020, 09:16:22 PM »
Quote
Eric Blake (@EricBlake12) 8/26/20, 1:46 PM
If the NHC forecast verifies, #Laura would the strongest hurricane on record for that part of NW Gulf Coast. Words fail me at a time like this- simply put, it would change the course of the landfall area much like Katrina did. Gut-wrenching
https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1298678305965703169
Radar image below; gif at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #244 on: August 26, 2020, 09:57:22 PM »
Quote
Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) 8/26/20, 1:51 PM
#Laura continues to strengthen and is now a Category 4 #hurricane with max winds of 140 mph. Laura is now the strongest August hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico since Katrina (2005). #HurricaneLaura
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1298679386690863106
Satellite gif at the link. 

Wave height image below from:  https://www.oceanweather.com/data/
« Last Edit: August 26, 2020, 10:02:50 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #245 on: August 26, 2020, 11:20:57 PM »
Just a footnote:  "Marco made landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River around 6:00 p.m. CDT [Monday, August 24] as a tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph."

So Louisiana will have two land-falling tropical storms+ within 2½ days.  140 mph Cat 4 Laura is expected to make landfall about midnight (+/- a couple hours) tonight (about 8 hours from 'now').  Only 15 mph to Cat 5 status ...  :'(

Sorry about the "English" measurements, but that's how they're reported ...
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #246 on: August 26, 2020, 11:30:05 PM »
140 mph Cat 4 Laura is expected to make landfall about midnight

Now 145 mph Laura:
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #247 on: August 27, 2020, 12:01:49 AM »
Arkansas doesn't get tropical storms very often.  Apparently maybe half a dozen times this past 100 years or so (e.g.,Hurricane 2 in 1941, Audrey 1956 (?), Betsy in 1965 and Ike in 2008)

A PDF of Arkansas-affecting storms...
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwjQmpSG7bnrAhVLvlkKHW_FAgsQFjAEegQIAhAB&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.weather.gov%2Fmedia%2Flzk%2Far_tropical.pdf&usg=AOvVaw2LdtpnTCB5vX2FUEKDDebs
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #248 on: August 27, 2020, 12:17:41 AM »
Storm surge penetrating up to 40 miles inland?
Quote from NHC,,,
Quote
Key Messages:

1. Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will
cause catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to
Intracoastal City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes.
This surge could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate
coastline, and flood waters will not fully recede for several days
after the storm.
WTNT63 KNHC 262156
TCUAT3
__________________________________________________
Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132020
500 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...500 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

Low tide occurred along the northwestern Gulf coast within the past
hour, and water levels are expected to rise quickly through the
evening and overnight due to storm surge and the tide.


SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 92.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES
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pearscot

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #249 on: August 27, 2020, 12:24:01 AM »
I've been tracking this storm all week...it's an absolute monster. I can't believe the rapid intensification it has undergone, but the Gulf is just so warm.

What's most dangerous is that it will more than likely hit while strengthening, which is worse than the same speed but weakening on the approach. I know wave heights of about 40ft have been recorded as well.

I think it would be very improbable if it were became a cat 5 before it hit, but then again I would not be too surprised either given its current structure

This is as recent as I could grab:
« Last Edit: August 27, 2020, 12:29:28 AM by pearscot »
pls!