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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #300 on: September 12, 2020, 08:06:59 PM »
Rush Limbaugh Downplaying Hurricane Irma May Have Decreased Evacuations
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/09/rush-limbaugh-downplaying-hurricane-irma-may-have-decreased-evacuations/

Before Hurricane Irma hit Florida in 2017, radio entertainer (and Florida resident) Rush Limbaugh falsely ranted that landfalling hurricanes are “never as strong as they’re reported,” claiming that life-saving forecasts are exaggerated “to advance this climate change agenda.” Beyond his radio audience, the comments generated a fair amount of news coverage. Yet Limbaugh evacuated his beachfront mansion a few days later.

Given the cultural polarization about certain scientific facts, it’s fair to wonder if these irresponsible falsehoods had a discernible impact on evacuations. UCLA’s Elisa Long, Keith Chen, and Ryne Rohla used a phone-location dataset to find out. They compared evacuations for Irma to those in Texas for Hurricane Harvey and to Florida’s 2016 Hurricane Matthew.

The dataset includes anonymized locations from millions of phones, so it requires some simplified processing. Each phone’s home location is defined by its most common location in the week previous to the first hurricane alert. Then, for a window of time around the hurricane, evacuations are determined by a change in location that lasts at least 24 hours.

Each home location is also assigned to its voting precinct. So based on the results of the 2016 presidential election, the researchers were looking for a correlation between evacuation rates and the political tilt of the precinct.

Comparing Harvey evacuations in the Houston area to Matthew and Irma evacuations in Florida, Irma stands out. The evacuation rate seems significantly lower in precincts where a greater share of votes went to Donald Trump. Overall, about 37 percent of the phones in Florida were recorded as evacuating, but these correlations indicate something like a 7-11 percent difference in the evacuation rate based on vote. There’s no significant pattern like that in the other two hurricanes that were examined.



The researchers looked for some other correlations to see if the political connection could be a coincidence. But they say things like income, education level, and distance from the coast don’t explain the pattern. Given that the timing of the divergence lines up with Rush Limbaugh’s comments and the ensuing media coverage, the researchers draw a pretty strong conclusion that this “illustrates a large behavioral consequence of science denialism”.



Partisan divides about climate change in Florida tend to soften once the topic turns to practical decisions about dealing with sea level rise. Hurricane safety, too, needs to stay grounded in reality—and not talk radio.

Elisa F. Long, et.al., Political storms: Emergent partisan skepticism of hurricane risks, Science Advances, 2020
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/37/eabb7906
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #301 on: September 13, 2020, 04:15:31 AM »
Just a reminder to folks that Tropical Tidbits has had daily 'evening' - in eastern US, anyway - posts on tropical developments in the Atlantic in recent days, and will continue while storms are a threat to land.  Sally on the mid-Gulf Coast (about Tuesday) and Paulette on Bermuda (Sunday night or Monday morning).  These 'lessons' last about 15 or 18 minutes.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #302 on: September 13, 2020, 04:07:00 PM »
Florida, south
NWS Key West: "#ClimateTidbit... Marathon has shattered both daily & monthly records (previously 1.13" in 1995 for the daily and 5.92" on 9/28/1953 for the monthly records.) Key West has nearly doubled the daily rainfall record of 2.26" back in 1924. #flwx #FLKeys #FloridaKeys #RecordRain"

NWS Key West: "Curious how much rain has fallen? This Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor image shows 24-hr totals. Overall, values are a bit underdone (observed values below) Marathon: 7.78" Key West: 4.46" Boca Chica: 4.33" #flwx #FLKeys #FloridaKeys #KeyWest #MarathonFL #Islamorada #KeyLargo #Sally”
https://mobile.twitter.com/nwskeywest/status/1304934478574309376
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #303 on: September 13, 2020, 04:11:21 PM »
WPC 5-DayTotal Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #304 on: September 13, 2020, 06:15:42 PM »
Last 7 days of rainfall, per Weather Underground in southern Florida.  The Keys are near the lower right corner of this screen print (just above "12Z").

Their '12 inches+' = 300 mm+ reminds me of Tropical Storm Fay in 2008 which dumped 25" or 625 mm of rain on my rain gauges in 7 days (from early outer bands when the storm was near Miami to when it was just off [or on] local shores to late outer bands when is was leaving Florida Panhandle waters). (I was home - I emptied two rain gauges and recorded amounts 3 or 4 times on some of those days.  (One gauge maxes out at 4" and the other at 7", and twice the 4" one was splashing out when emptied, therefore the use of the less precise 7" one.)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #305 on: September 13, 2020, 11:28:00 PM »
Quote
Ricky Matthews (@wxrjm) 9/13/20, 12:26 AM
Reddit user u/Protuhj wrote a python script (available on Github) to make an image of all the NHC cones in one map. ...
https://twitter.com/wxrjm/status/1304999967409541121

https://www.reddit.com/r/TropicalWeather/comments/iro5eo/i_made_a_tool_to_consolidate_the_forecast_cones/
“The image should update hourly (if there’s a change in the generated image(s)).“

https://protuhj.github.io/nhc-cones/

Current image below.
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #306 on: September 14, 2020, 05:04:43 PM »
Teddy and Vicky have formed. One name left.

oren

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #307 on: September 14, 2020, 05:08:48 PM »
Impressive!

Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #308 on: September 14, 2020, 05:13:52 PM »
How far into the greek letters will it go? I think there were 6 the only previous time Alpha, Beta, ... Zeta got called on and this season is ahead of that schedule.
Teddy and Vicky have formed. One name left.

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #309 on: September 14, 2020, 06:28:02 PM »
Interesting season.  Definitely a flurry of activity that will potentially produce the most named storms recorded during a hurricane season.  However, the intensity has been much lower than other active seasons. 

Currently, of the 17 tropical cyclones, there have been six hurricanes with Sally likely to become number seven soon.  Additionally, only one (Laura) has reached major hurricane status (Cat. 4 with 150 mph sustained winds).  By contrast, 2005 had 15 cyclones with eight becoming hurricanes, three of which reached major status (including two cat. 5s).  1933 also had six hurricanes, but four reached category 4 or higher.

Using the ACE metric, this season has been relatively average.  The year-to-date ACE is 60 compared to an average of 58.  Current activity may push the final total above 104, the yearly average., but likely to fall far short of the 2005 season, which measured 250, slightly less than that estimated for 1933.

pearscot

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #310 on: September 14, 2020, 09:24:49 PM »
I made this lil graphic. Pls enjoy!!

pls!

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #311 on: September 14, 2020, 09:55:06 PM »
Jeff Masters (formerly with and founder of Weather Underground) has a post on Yale Climate Connections (dated today):
Quote
for just the second time on record, the Atlantic has five simultaneous [named tropical systems]
...
Sally intensifies into a dangerous hurricane
...
The track forecast for Sally has more uncertainty than usual for a storm expected to make landfall in less than 48 hours. ...  landfall in Mississippi or Alabama appears most likely.
...
The official forecast calls for Sally to peak as a category 2 hurricane with winds of 105 mph, but it could reach category 3 hurricane strength with 115 mph winds if it manages to close off a complete eyewall by Tuesday morning.
...
A larger corridor of 8-16 inches can be expected near the coasts of southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the extreme western Florida Panhandle.
...
Storm surge is also a major concern, with up to 11 feet of surge predicted along the east side of New Orleans. As discussed in Sunday’s post, New Orleans’ rebuilt levee system has proven it can handle storm surge flooding of at least 17 feet, the peak level of storm surge flooding observed during Hurricane Isaac in August 2012. However, many areas outside this levee system are not as well fortified and suffered destructive storm surge flooding during Isaac. Sally is likely to produce a prolonged and dangerous storm surge from Monday into Wednesday across far southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and far western Florida.
...
In other news from same article:
Quote
Hurricane Paulette made a direct hit on the island of Bermuda early Monday morning, with its 40-mile-wide eye encompassing almost the entire island at 5 a.m. EDT. At landfall, Paulette was a category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. The hurricane’s winds increased to 90 mph while Bermuda was in the eye; at 9 a.m. EDT, when the rear eyewall was pounding the island, NHC upgraded Paulette to a category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds.
...
Teddy’s arrival on September 14 marks the earliest date that any Atlantic season has produced its nineteenth tropical storm, topping the record held by an unnamed storm from October 4, 2005, which was classified after the season was over. Vicky’s arrival on September 14 marks the earliest date that any Atlantic season has produced its twentieth tropical storm, topping the record held by Tammy from October 5, 2005.
and much more ...
« Last Edit: September 14, 2020, 10:08:16 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #312 on: September 16, 2020, 01:37:46 AM »
Mark Sudduth: "Make no mistake, what Sally lacks in wind energy it will more than make up for in rain and flooding. Think Florence in [North Carolina/South Carolina] two years ago. Threatened to make landfall as a category four; did so as a 1 and was NC’s most costly hurricane ever."
https://mobile.twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1305974022795034626
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #313 on: September 16, 2020, 10:15:57 AM »
Hurricane Sally Strengthens to Category 2 as it Nears Landfall, Bringing Life-Threatening Flooding
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/09/16/weather/hurricane-sally-wednesday/index.html



Hurricane Sally restrengthened to a Category 2 Hurricane early Wednesday morning as it churns slowly along the Gulf Coast.



https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSMobile/status/1306083306019012608

The slow-moving storm is expected to make landfall between Gulfport, Mississippi, and Pensacola, Florida late Wednesday morning if it maintains its current 2 mph crawl north.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TWCChrisBruin/status/1306114328064651270

Quote
Most of downtown Pensacola is FLOODED and the water keeps rising. Very serious situation unfolding with the worst of #Sally still hours away. View from our hotel. Whitecaps rolling down most streets

More than 150,000 people are already without power along the Gulf Coast and thousands have evacuated ahead of the storm.

Satellite imagery of Sally indicates the eye reforming early Wednesday, which is another sign of strengthening,

https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1306109776204427264

Rainfall of 10 to 20 inches (250-500 mm)  is expected across Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, with isolated amounts of 30 inches (762 mm) possible.

https://mobile.twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1306104718192766978

Quote
A dropsonde released from the recon aircraft suggests that wind gusts as high as 130 mph may be reaching the ground in the northeast eyewall of #Sally.

Those in the path of Sally are also experiencing water outages as conditions are unsafe to make repairs to utilities because of the storm.

Escambia County Utilities Authority issued an alert Tuesday that they are unable to respond to a significant water main break in Pensacola Beach due to storm conditions and bridge closures ahead of Sally.

The water system had to be shut off at approximately 11:00 p.m. as storm surge and tide levels will also inundate the sewer collection system, according to ECUA.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #314 on: September 16, 2020, 08:49:14 PM »
Hurricane Sally slams into Alabama and Florida, and rescues from widespread flooding are underway
Quote
A Category 1 Hurricane Sally is pummeling southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle after it crossed land Wednesday morning, prompting water rescues, sapping power, dropping trees and leaving serious flooding as it crawls at an agonizingly slow pace.

"We anticipate the evacuations could literally be in the thousands," David Morgan, sheriff of Florida's Escambia County which includes Pensacola, said of rescuing people in flooded neighborhoods.

Water rescues also were reported to be ongoing in Gulf Shores, Alabama, where homes flooded and trees toppled onto roofs, city spokesman Grant Brown said.

A section of Pensacola's Three-Mile Bridge that connects to the city of Gulf Breeze is missing, thanks to the storm, Morgan said.

Sally made landfall as a Category 2 storm near Gulf Shores around 4:45 a.m. CT with sustained winds of 105 mph. It's since weakened inland, with winds at 75 mph as of noon CT.

With Sally's slow pace -- now around 5 mph -- some areas already have collected more than 24 inches of rain and could receive up to 35 inches [889mm] by storm's end. ...
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/16/weather/hurricane-sally-wednesday/index.html
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #315 on: September 16, 2020, 11:20:02 PM »
Isn't a Chart like this supposed to be the opening shot in some Hollywood "Global Climate Catastrophe" Sci Fi Movie from the mid 1990's?........





https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

EDIT: Oh ,and let's not forget the one in the Med. of course........
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #316 on: September 16, 2020, 11:30:42 PM »
This year is the remake. Now, with twice as many storms!

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #317 on: September 17, 2020, 02:53:27 AM »
Alabama
Quote
Baldwin County Emergency Management Agency (@BaldwinEMA) 9/16/20, 1:06 PM
MAJOR TO CATASTROPHIC FLOODING IS OCCURRING IN BALDWIN COUNTY AND IMPACTING MANY AREAS AND ROADS. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS SITUATION. PLEASE DO NOT TRAVEL ON AREA ROADWAYS UNLESS YOU HAVE AN EMERGENCY. LEAVE THE ROADS CLEAR FOR EMERGENCY PERSONNEL. 
https://twitter.com/baldwinema/status/1306278280253890560

Quote
Spinks Megginson (@rzweather) 9/16/20, 5:57 PM
The flash flooding today caused by #Sally led to one of the most rapid water rises ever observed for both Murder Creek & Burnt Corn Creek near Brewton and East Brewton in Escambia County, Alabama. Full aerial photo album: facebook.com/40082716340896…
https://twitter.com/rzweather/status/1306351495995105281

Quote
morganabigail (@morganabigail) 9/16/20, 6:50 PM
A 20+ hour shift. There are no words to describe that shift. I'm shaken, to be honest. The pleas for help on social media from folks who couldn't get out & the folks stuck in their attics.. I just.. I'm rattled. That was a rough shift. The damage is extensive along our coast. :'(
https://twitter.com/morganabigail/status/1306364897035509764

Photo below; others at the links.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #318 on: September 17, 2020, 03:22:41 AM »
Florida
Tropical Storm Sally: Live updates
Pensacola Fire Chief Ginny Cranor said her city was inundated with water.
Quote
“We had 30 inches [762mm] of rain in Pensacola — 30 plus inches of rain — which is four months of rain in four hours at some point,” Cranor said to CNN’s Wolf Blitzer.

Cranor said a portion of Pensacola’s Three Mile Bridge sustained significant damage during the storm. Work on the bridge is “just being completed,” she said and “unfortunately I'm hearing now that this bridge may be closed for a month or more.”

“A crane fell into the bridge, we had a few barges that came loose and also ran into the bottom of the bridge, so we'll have major repairs on the bridge and also some structural engineering work that will need to take place before it opens again,” she explained.

Cranor said rescue teams are moving from response mode to recovery mode, as tonight’s curfew gets underway.

“There's a lot of electrical hazards, a lot of hazards just with the instability of the roads, so we need people to stay off the roads and give us these three days to recover and assess the damage,” she said.
https://www.cnn.com/us/live-news/hurricane-sally-updates-09-16-2020/index.html
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #319 on: September 17, 2020, 04:11:07 PM »
Hurricane Center: Tropical Depression or Storm Could Form Thursday in Gulf of Mexico
https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_836ad296-f8d7-11ea-a3fe-83c9be85af93.amp.html

A tropical depression or tropical storm could form Thursday in the Gulf of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said its morning update.

As of 7 a.m. Thursday, a well-defined low pressure system, currently called Invest 90L, was over southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters said thunderstorm activity with this disturbance became better organized overnight and has continued to increase



Forecasters said upper-level winds are gradually becoming more conducive for development and if the trend continues, a tropical depression or tropical storm could form later Thursday.



The disturbance is expected to meander over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for the next day or so before moving slowly north to northeast on Friday and Saturday.

« Last Edit: September 17, 2020, 04:28:11 PM by vox_mundi »
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #320 on: September 17, 2020, 09:26:23 PM »
2020 cannot end without a medicane.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #321 on: September 18, 2020, 03:03:11 AM »
A tropical depression has formed in the Gulf, and Texas needs to pay attention
Quote
Good evening. The National Hurricane Center says a tropical depression has formed in the Gulf of Mexico, and this system may become Tropical Storm Wilfred in the next day or so. Before we get too deep into the forecast I just wanted to highlight a couple of changes from this morning’s post:

The depression is expected to begin moving northward a little sooner than expected, so impacts for Texas could occur sooner
The forecast models are now in a little better agreement that the tropical system will come near, or possibly even ashore the Texas coast, increasing the rainfall threat
...
As we’ve been saying, the depression has the potential to become a prodigious rainmaker over the next week for Texas and northern Mexico. We think the cold front and storm’s position will probably keep its heavy rainfall offshore through this weekend, but by Monday or so that may change. It is going to depend how close the storm’s center comes to Texas as most of the heavy rainfall should be near the center, and on the eastern half of its circulation.

Because of the track uncertainty, the entire Texas and Louisiana coasts need to be paying close attention to the potential for heavy rainfall next week. ...
https://spacecityweather.com/a-tropical-depression-has-formed-in-the-gulf-and-texas-needs-to-pay-attention/amp/
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #322 on: September 18, 2020, 06:51:36 PM »
Subtropical storm Alpha appeared.

gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #323 on: September 18, 2020, 09:27:29 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/18/greece-lashed-by-rare-hurricane-force-storm
Medicane
Quote
Greece’s national meteorological office issued a red alert for the Ionian isles, Peloponnese peninsula, central Greece and Euboea (Evia), warning of “severe rain and thunderstorms and gale-force winds” through the weekend. Crete, it said, would also be affected on Sunday.

Along the shores of western Greece on Friday, waves were described as 7 metres high. Later in the day, in the region of Fthiotida emergency services were inundated with calls to rescue citizens from flooded homes.

Likened to a hurricane more commonly seen in the Caribbean, the Ianos storm was expected to hit Athens on Friday evening into Saturday. Nearly half of the entire population of Greece lives in the greater Athens area, with parts of the capital particularly prone to flooding.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #324 on: September 19, 2020, 01:11:25 AM »
Quote
Sam Lillo (@splillo) 9/18/20, 3:28 PM
Aaand now updated for Beta.
23 named storms.
34 days earlier than 2005. 
https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1307038784773648392
Image below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #325 on: September 19, 2020, 01:25:30 AM »
Quote
NWS Eastern Region (@NWSEastern) 9/18/20, 1:29 PM
Here are the Greek alphabet list of tropical storm names. We are checking on the whether Greek alphabet names can be retired for significant storms. Storm names and retiring names are determined by a committee of the @WMO
https://twitter.com/nwseastern/status/1307008770049028097
[⬇️Image below]

National Weather Service (@NWS) 9/18/20, 3:22 PM
According to @WMO Hurricane Committee, the letter in the Greek Alphabet would not be retired. Instead, the storm would be included in the list of retired names with the year of occurrence and other details. The letter itself would continue to be available for use in the future.

More information here:
Hurricane Sally causes major flooding as 2020 season exhausts list of names | World Meteorological Organization
https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/hurricane-sally-causes-major-flooding-2020-season-exhausts-list-of-names
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PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #326 on: September 19, 2020, 04:06:04 PM »
Stupid but obvious question: what happens when they run out of Greek letters?
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #327 on: September 19, 2020, 04:54:58 PM »
Stupid but obvious question: what happens when they run out of Greek letters?
Hebrew? Cyrillic? Klingon?
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #328 on: September 19, 2020, 05:47:24 PM »
Klingon would be nice. Or runes. Or pictures. Or letter + digit. :)
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #329 on: September 19, 2020, 06:17:12 PM »
Stupid but obvious question: what happens when they run out of Greek letters?

They label them by the year to avoid retiring any e.g. it would be Beta 2020 that gets put on the retired list if it does something nasty to Texas, rather than never using Beta again.

I expect they'd start 2021 names early if Omega was before the end of 2020, but I don't see it getting close to that. There are a lot of Greek letters.

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #330 on: September 22, 2020, 01:37:33 PM »
Tropical Storm Beta Becomes Record-Tying Ninth Mainland U.S. Landfall of 2020 Hurricane Season
• Four of those landfalls were hurricanes, roughly double the average for an entire season.
• Much of the East and Gulf coasts have been covered by a warning once this season.
Quote
Tropical Storm Beta became the ninth named storm to landfall in the mainland U.S. in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, tying a record that had stood for over 100 years.

Beta's center inched ashore along the Texas coast on late Monday, Sept. 21, becoming the ninth tropical storm or hurricane to make landfall this season.

That tied the 1916 season, which previously stood as the lone record-holder for the most number of mainland U.S. landfalls in any season....
...
Only Florida's Upper Keys and the west coast of Florida, east of Apalachicola, has yet to be placed under a tropical storm or hurricane warning so far this season.

An average hurricane season after Sept. 21 delivers another five named storms, three of which become hurricanes. As September shifts into October, the area where tropical storms and hurricanes most often form shifts back to the west into the western Caribbean Sea, eastern Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean off the East Coast.

So it's possible we're not done yet as far as U.S. impact is concerned, despite the landfall record tie.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2020-09-21-nine-us-landfalls-2020-hurricane-season-ties-record
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #331 on: September 25, 2020, 10:44:18 PM »
The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season doesn't seem active today.

vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #332 on: September 25, 2020, 11:24:52 PM »
Give it a couple of weeks ...



... Or not

-----------------------------------------------

The NWS Lake Charles has found a storm surge high water mark from #Hurricane Laura of 17.2 feet above ground level (AGL) at Rutherford Beach, LA. The level was acquired from the structures left standing in the background.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWSLakeCharles/status/1309238190230835200
« Last Edit: September 25, 2020, 11:51:19 PM by vox_mundi »
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solartim27

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #333 on: September 26, 2020, 05:47:03 PM »
By Covidiot logic, hurricane season is over.
FNORD

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #334 on: September 26, 2020, 08:46:54 PM »
... hurricane season is over.
Yeah!  Now I can throw out my hurricane supplies! 

My governor has declared the State of Florida is open for business, bars, Disney, everything.  I guess I can throw out my mask.

You're telling me the next hurricane season starts next week.  Oh.  I guess I'll keep my hurricane supplies.

Governor DeSantis only looks out for himself, you say?  I guess I'll keep my mask, too.
 :)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #335 on: September 28, 2020, 06:19:27 PM »
”This hurricane season has been defined by storms forming in strange locations that rapidly intensify and produce unusually heavy rains — a hallmark of what science says are some of the most clearly defined impacts of a warming climate. If it was 2040, we might not think it was unusual for two tropical systems to simultaneously threaten mainland Europe, but in my entire career as a meteorologist, I’ve sure as hell never heard of anything like that happening before.”

The 2020 Hurricane Season Is a Turning Point in Human History
by Eric Holthaus
https://onezero.medium.com/the-2020-hurricane-season-is-a-turning-point-in-human-history-72710f79abed
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Rodius

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #336 on: October 05, 2020, 07:58:29 AM »
Another assault on the Mississippi Delta region for late this week is possibly brewing......


https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/10/tropical-storm-delta-likely-to-form-by-tuesday/

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #337 on: October 05, 2020, 02:31:35 PM »
Was the pun intended?
 :)
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #338 on: October 05, 2020, 02:39:52 PM »
Tropical Storm Delta Forms, Expected to Make Landfall in Louisiana: See Track
https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_a43baedc-06fb-11eb-b3ec-37186d000afd.amp.html



Tropical Storm Delta formed Monday morning and is expected to make landfall in Louisiana, forecasters said.

The current track from the National Hurricane Center has Delta making landfall Friday as a Category 2 hurricane in southeast Louisiana. The track has an average error of 160 to 200 miles this far out.
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Rodius

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #339 on: October 05, 2020, 03:00:16 PM »

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #340 on: October 05, 2020, 05:15:59 PM »
There also exists the possibility of an interaction with tropical storm gamma just off the Yucatan.  Consequently, the forecasts for both storms are more uncertain than usual.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #341 on: October 05, 2020, 06:33:15 PM »
A little unusual thing is happening. Hurricane Teddy is heading towards Canada and according to forecast it will reach Greenland as Tropical/Subtropical storm. It is too soon to tell if it will affect Arctic in some way but worth to mention it.
...
I responded a couple posts down.

For the record, the center of Teddy never made it to Greenland.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #342 on: October 06, 2020, 01:01:29 AM »
Tropical Storm Delta Expected to Approach Gulf Coast as Major Hurricane; Part of Florida In Cone
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/05/tropical-storm-delta-gulf-coast/



The Hurricane Center predicts Delta will reach hurricane strength Monday night or early Tuesday and become a major Category 3 hurricane by Tuesday night with maximum sustained winds of at least 120 mph.

As of 5 p.m. Monday, Delta was quickly gaining strength about 150 miles south of Jamaica. Maximum sustained winds had increased to 70 mph, a 30 mph leap from 8 a.m. when it was designated a tropical storm. A tropical storm warning was in effect for the Cayman Islands and a hurricane warning for western Cuba and the northern Yucatán Peninsula.

Delta is forecast to get even stronger, becoming a hurricane Monday night and catapulting to a Category 3 24 hours later as it passes very close to the Yucatán Peninsula. Then it is predicted to lumber through the Gulf of Mexico, coming ashore between coastal Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle late Thursday into Friday as a Category 2.

Over the next two days, the Hurricane Center’s forecast calls for “significant strengthening” due to very favorable environmental conditions as the system passes through the northern Caribbean and enters the Gulf Tuesday night. In the northwest Caribbean, it is passing over very warm water of around 87 degrees, about three degrees above average, fueling its rapid intensification — a hallmark of five other 2020 storms (Hanna, Laura, Teddy, Sally and Gamma).

However, hurricane intensity forecasts are low-confidence this far in advance, and if Delta picks up speed as it collides with the coast, it may not have much time to weaken.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #343 on: October 06, 2020, 03:17:01 AM »
Quote
Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather)10/5/20, 8:42 PM
#Delta is now a hurricane, 9th Atlantic hurricane of 2020. Just 12 hours ago, it had just become tropical storm. Winds have leaped 35 mph, meeting criteria for "rapid intensification" in half required time. 6th storm to rapidly intensify in 2020. Details: wapo.st/3iuTrlf
https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/1313278344121778178
Image below.
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #344 on: October 06, 2020, 05:30:05 PM »
Delta is a major hurricane already.

Quote
000
WTNT61 KNHC 061520
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...RECENTLY RECEIVED DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is
continuing to rapidly strengthen. The maximum winds have
increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts.  This makes
Delta a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.


SUMMARY OF 1120 AM EDT...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 82.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown
Source.

oren

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #345 on: October 06, 2020, 08:23:37 PM »
Wow. The first forecast posted upthread yesterday called for Delta to still be a tropical storm at this time. The secons forecast called for it to become a plain hurricane, and now it's already a Cat4.

pearscot

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #346 on: October 06, 2020, 09:09:28 PM »
I'll be watching Delta closely, I feel like it is going to continue to intensify and depending on its land interaction with the Yucatán, it may weaken but also expand in size.

Additionally, given the amount of time before it's supposed to hit the U.S. I suspect it will undergo an eyewall replacement cycle or two (also expanding it). It's going to be a formidable storm and given its well defined structure now, I think this will be one to follow.
pls!

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #347 on: October 06, 2020, 09:49:57 PM »
Back 20 years ago when I first started following Dr. Master's WeatherUnderground blog, or maybe a year later, there was condemnation about some commenters 'wishful thinking' a storm was headed their way, when the chances were slim.  Some wisecracker then suggested a particular Atlantic Basin hurricane was heading right towards Boise (capitol city of Idaho - (inland) northwestern USA): "Boise-casting", it would be called.

So, Pearscot, with your "watching Delta closely", and my understanding you are in Washington (state), I'll 'condemn' your [at least, my presumption of your] "Olympic Peninsula-casting".  :o 8) :P
:)

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pearscot

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #348 on: October 06, 2020, 09:59:53 PM »
Back 20 years ago when I first started following Dr. Master's WeatherUnderground blog, or maybe a year later, there was condemnation about some commenters 'wishful thinking' a storm was headed their way, when the chances were slim.  Some wisecracker then suggested a particular Atlantic Basin hurricane was heading right towards Boise (capitol city of Idaho - (inland) northwestern USA): "Boise-casting", it would be called.

So, Pearscot, with your "watching Delta closely", and my understanding you are in Washington (state), I'll 'condemn' your [at least, my presumption of your] "Olympic Peninsula-casting".  :o 8) :P
:)

What??? I think you completely misunderstood my post. When I say "watching closely" I mean that I have been tracking this storm from its inception. I certainly do not want to be in the path of it nor do I hope for anyone to have their life disrupted by it. I'm merely stating that as I "closely watch" the arctic, I'm also hyper interested in weather/tropical system.

My post is speaking to this storm needing to be taken serious and there is a lot of potential for it to continue to grow in size. NOAA has stated this storm is currently small, however based off of what I have seen, I suspect it will grow in size and therefore those living on the coast in the U.S. really should be ready for potential storm surge.
pls!

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #349 on: October 06, 2020, 10:28:10 PM »
Something above 170 doesn't appear very often on this chart.