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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #350 on: October 06, 2020, 10:56:33 PM »
Sorry, Pearscot, for taking your words out of your intended context and adding my imagery.  I was sort of clear that I knew I was making unfounded presumptions and was being tongue in cheek.  'Many' followers of tropical weather watch most closely that tropical weather that might affect them.  Your  "watching closely" reminded me of the frequent WU theme: home-casting.  I did not think you were actually doing that.  I don't think I have ever written about that one occurrence of tongue-in-cheek Boise-casting, but I certainly smile about it every year.

Yes, Major Hurricane Delta will undoubtedly grow in size and have significant impacts on the Yucatán Peninsula and the central Gulf Coast.  If I lived within or close to the NOAA cone, I'd plan for major hurricane impacts.  As always expressed by Levi on his Tropical Tidbits presentations, "when making decisions, consult the National Hurricane Center and local weather office for the best information for your specific location."

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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #351 on: October 06, 2020, 11:02:43 PM »
Major Hurricane Delta at 5 pm (EST):  125 kts (145 mph = 230 km/hr).
From NHC:
Quote
There has been no evidence of an outer eyewall from the aircraft
reports or earlier radar imagery from Grand Cayman. As a
result, some additional strengthening is likely to occur before
Delta reaches the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula late
tonight or early Wednesday.
« Last Edit: October 06, 2020, 11:08:28 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #352 on: October 07, 2020, 12:12:42 AM »
I wonder if they will retire the letter?
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #353 on: October 07, 2020, 01:06:35 PM »
I wonder if they will retire the letter?

NHC has said that they will not retire any Greek letters but will add an entry, with the year appended, to the retired list. So, Delta 2020 may be added to the retired list, but Delta will not be retired.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #354 on: October 07, 2020, 01:29:10 PM »
Weird. Even if they don’t retire it they can’t use the year again so that seems pointless.
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Freegrass

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #355 on: October 07, 2020, 01:51:00 PM »
Hurricane Delta is a monster...
4 or 5 when it strikes?
Now let's pray...

If the science don't fit our beliefs, we pray to God and cuddle up in our own delusional fantasy where everything makes sense again...

Paddy

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #356 on: October 07, 2020, 01:55:21 PM »
I wonder if they'll have to bring some of the unused letters into the hurricane alphabet to avoid this mess.

Q: Quentin, Queenie, Qasim, Quincy, Quetzalcoatl...
U: Uther, Ulrich, Ulrikka, Ulysses...
X: Xavier, Xanthe, Xeno, Xena...

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #357 on: October 07, 2020, 02:02:32 PM »
Paddy:
Even if they did that, we would still have that mess this year, just with Alpha instead of Delta.
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Paddy

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #358 on: October 07, 2020, 02:44:55 PM »
Paddy:
Even if they did that, we would still have that mess this year, just with Alpha instead of Delta.

There's also Y and Z of course. Maybe going for XYZ names but missing out Q and U might make sense, since Q in particular would come up in many more years than X etc

kassy

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #359 on: October 07, 2020, 06:24:10 PM »
Thats just naming conventions. You could just number them.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #360 on: October 07, 2020, 06:33:52 PM »
Hurricane Delta is a monster...
4 or 5 when it strikes?

Possibly.  However the official forecast is for a category 2 or 3 when it makes landfall.

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #361 on: October 07, 2020, 07:05:44 PM »
Well it looks like Delta is slowly emerging into the Gulf this morning. It sure does look like a monster and has time to reorganize...

I will for sure be listening to both Levi and Mark tonight since they both have really informative videos.

This map shows where the core went over and also the expansion of the wind field:

« Last Edit: October 07, 2020, 07:21:13 PM by pearscot »
pls!

FrostKing70

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #362 on: October 07, 2020, 08:48:33 PM »
I am hoping the wind shear and dry air intrusion will keep the storm weaker than the models predict.   The people in Louisiana have had enough for hurricane season!

pearscot

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #363 on: October 08, 2020, 05:47:58 PM »
Well, it appears as though Delta has finally re-developed an eye so the next 24 hours will be interesting to follow. I don't yet know what kind of energy it has to work with, but nonetheless, this is a concern.
pls!

Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #364 on: October 08, 2020, 05:58:00 PM »
Forecasts show barely cat 3 before landfall but it can become worse.

The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #365 on: October 08, 2020, 07:03:44 PM »
Forecasts show barely cat 3 before landfall but it can become worse.

It is expected to barely make that cat 3 status in the open water.  Then it is expected to encounter some wind shear before landfall, dropping back down to a cat 2 when it hits the coast.  However, hurricanes are notoriously unpredictable, so stay tuned.

pearscot

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #366 on: October 08, 2020, 11:27:58 PM »
As of the latest advisory from NOAA:

Quote
Delta is strengthening. In satellite imagery, an eye is now seen in the cold cloud tops of the central dense overcast. On the aircraft side, just received reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft included 700-mb flight-level winds of 119 kt, SFMR winds estimates near 90 kt, and a central pressure of 959 mb inside a 30 n mi wide eye...

Shear, sea surface temperature, and moisture conditions appear favorable for strengthening during the next 12 h or so, and based on this additional intensification is expected tonight. A short period of rapid intensification remains possible given current trends, although the various rapid intensification indices are not enthusiastic about the possibilities of this
pls!

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #367 on: October 09, 2020, 02:23:39 AM »
Michael E. Mann: 
When we run out of Greek names, we’ll start naming storms after fossil fuel companies
https://twitter.com/michaelemann/status/1314323929369063424
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #368 on: October 09, 2020, 03:00:57 AM »
John Barnes’ Mother of Storms had to come up with a system to name hundreds of hurricanes in one season, caused by a clathrate outburst.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #369 on: October 09, 2020, 04:27:31 PM »
Jeff Masters wrote an article yesterday on his “Eye on the Storm” - Yale Climate Connections blog about Hurricane Delta.

A few things I found interesting:
Quote
...
The NOAA Hurricane Hunters this season have started delivering significant real-time wave height data to the National Hurricane Center from a Ka-band Interferometric Altimeter (KaIA); the data is being posted here. On Thursday morning, a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft measured significant wave heights (the mean wave height of the highest third of the waves) of up to 30 feet inside Delta.
...
Modest damage and no deaths in Mexico from Delta’s landfall
...
... bringing Delta ashore over western Louisiana late Friday afternoon or early Friday evening. The computer models are tightly clustered, giving confidence in this forecast. Delta’s landfall location is likely to be within 50 miles of where devastating category 4 Hurricane Laura made landfall on August 27.
...
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J Cartmill

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #370 on: October 09, 2020, 05:09:53 PM »
Delta passed right over a buoy in the Gulf of Mexico (42002). Had 10.8 meter waves.


Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #371 on: October 09, 2020, 06:42:37 PM »
30' significant wave heights (the mean wave height of the highest third of the waves) [Masters] = 9 m.  I presume this is compatible with measured 10.8 meter waves [buoy 42002].
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #372 on: October 10, 2020, 02:23:45 AM »
The Weather Channel (@weatherchannel) 10/9/20, 7:02 PM EDT
Quote
BREAKING: #Delta has made landfall near Creole, LA, making history for two reasons:

1️⃣ It's the first Greek-named storm to make landfall in the mainland US, and

2️⃣ 2020 now has the most US landfalls EVER in a season (10), beating a century-old record set in 1916. 
https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1314702916138274816
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #373 on: October 10, 2020, 03:03:14 AM »
Quote
Mark Sudduth (@hurricanetrack) 10/9/20, 7:01 PM
You can literally see the storm surge coming in from the Gulf of Mexico on our Creole, Louisiana camera. #HurricaneDelta
https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1314702636898308097
45 sec vid at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #374 on: October 12, 2020, 03:14:59 AM »
Hurricane Delta: Louisiana surveys damage as officials raise questions about federal aid
Quote
LAKE CHARLES, La. — As floodwaters from Hurricane Delta receded from this city, the largest in southwestern Louisiana to be severely hit by two hurricanes in six weeks, residents and city officials on Sunday were still surveying the damage of compounding crises — and wondering how much federal help they can count on.

Power had returned in many neighborhoods and some traffic lights were working again. Some outlying areas were still underwater after a double dose of storm surge from Delta on Friday and Hurricane Laura in August, though water levels had lowered across the city.

Statewide, almost half of all power outages stemming from Delta had been restored by Sunday afternoon, officials said, after peaking at nearly 690,000 — more than during Laura. But in a testament to the storms’ lasting devastation, more than 9,000 Louisianans remain in shelters, most of them people displaced by Hurricane Laura who still need temporary housing, authorities say.

The Federal Emergency Management Agency had previously promised to deliver alternative housing for residents whose homes were destroyed in Laura by mid-October, Mayor Nic Hunter said in an interview Sunday, and the agency said that will still be the case after Delta.

But how much financial assistance this besieged city of 78,000 residents will receive from the federal government is still uncertain, Hunter said. FEMA Administrator Peter T. Gaynor declined to provide assurances that the city will receive full reimbursement for municipal costs incurred during the hurricanes, Hunter said.

The federal government has provided full reimbursement in extreme cases before, the mayor said, including after hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 and Hurricane Michael, which made landfall in the Florida panhandle in 2018.

“To have us go through what we are going through right now, and to be treated differently than Michael was in 2018, to me it’s going to be a slap in the face,” Hunter said.
...
With an economy heavily reliant on tourism, Lake Charles was already struggling because of the coronavirus pandemic. Now the city and Louisiana have to recover from a punishing storm season, too. Laura and Delta are believed to have caused billions of dollars in damage across the state, including tens of millions in Lake Charles. ...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/10/11/louisiana-surveys-deltas-devastation-wonder-how-much-federal-aid-they-can-expect/
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The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #375 on: October 20, 2020, 11:25:50 PM »
As we approach the end of the 2020 tropical season, the global tropical ACE measure stands at 66% of average.  The North Atlantic is at 138% of average, while the eastern Pacific is at 57% of average and the western Pacific a paltry 37% of average.

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #376 on: October 21, 2020, 08:43:58 PM »
The remnant of Epsilon stick around Iceland for a while on the GFS before phasing into this monster and slamming into the UK. It is far out there but an interesting scenario, and the EURO also shows a monster event in the vicinity though it happens way sooner.




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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #377 on: October 25, 2020, 10:01:47 AM »
Another tropical storm is aimed at Louisiana.

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #378 on: October 25, 2020, 11:18:54 AM »
Another tropical storm is aimed at Louisiana.

Louisiana's only on its "maybe" destination list right now. Mexico's Yucatan peninsula is right in its path, though, pretty much exactly where Hurricane Delta already struck recently. Although it looks like the western end of Cuba is going to get caught first. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/
« Last Edit: October 25, 2020, 11:24:43 AM by Paddy »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #379 on: October 25, 2020, 04:57:40 PM »
Quote
Eric Holthaus (@EricHolthaus) 10/25/20, 10:45 AM
We now have Tropical Storm Zeta.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1320375819827634176
⬇️ 8am map below.

Zeta is the 27th named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane season, 1 behind the record of 28 in 2005.
It's also the 4th storm to threaten the Yucatan peninsula this year, and the 7th storm to threaten Louisiana.

Hurricane Delta hit just two weeks ago:

Hurricane Delta at the human scale (with interviews from Cancun and Lake Charles)   - The Phoenix
https://thephoenix.substack.com/p/hurricane-delta-at-the-human-scale
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The Walrus

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #380 on: October 26, 2020, 04:45:05 PM »
Tropical storm Zeta is expected to hookup with winter storm Billy.  The two storms will converge around Nashville and soak the entire area from the Tennessee Valley through the mid-Atlantic states.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #381 on: October 26, 2020, 06:19:01 PM »
Tropical storm Zeta is expected to hookup with winter storm Billy.  The two storms will converge around Nashville and soak the entire area from the Tennessee Valley through the mid-Atlantic states.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #382 on: October 27, 2020, 04:34:32 PM »
Tropical storm Zeta is expected to hookup with winter storm Billy.  The two storms will converge around Nashville and soak the entire area from the Tennessee Valley through the mid-Atlantic states.
And come next Tuesday, the remains may be raining from Iceland to Novaya Zemla
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #383 on: October 27, 2020, 04:41:22 PM »
meanwhile,

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/26/asia/vietnam-typhoon-molave-evacuate-intl-hnk/index.html
Vietnam is preparing to evacuate nearly 1.3 million people ahead of Typhoon Molave, which is expected to make landfall on Wednesday.

Typhoon Molave
, with wind speeds of 125 kilometers (77 miles) per hour and gusts of up to 150 kph (93.2 mph), left the main Philippine island of Luzon earlier on Monday, with heavy rain causing seven landslides and floods in 11 areas, the disaster agency said.
There were no reports of casualties, but 12 fishermen at sea failed to return to Catanduanes province off the country's eastern coast. Molave, known as Typhoon Quinta in the Philippines, was the 17th typhoon to hit the country this year.
It will be the fourth storm to hit Vietnam in a tumultuous month, during which floods and landslides have killed 130 people and left 20 missing in the central region. When Molave makes landfall, wind speeds are forecast to reach 135 kph (83.8 mph).
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #384 on: October 28, 2020, 10:10:39 AM »
Hurricane Zeta.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #385 on: October 28, 2020, 02:06:26 PM »
NWS is now predicting Zeta will be a stronger hurricane at landfall then ever previously predicted (100 mph winds - Category 2) (in 10 hours +/- a few)

From Newsweek
Quote
The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been "extremely active" and with the formation of Tropical Storm Zeta, the season has now broken the record for earliest 27th named storm.

Early Sunday morning, the cyclone went from a tropical depression to a tropical storm, earning it the name Zeta in accordance with the Greek alphabet. The last time a hurricane season produced 27 storms was in 2005, when a tropical storm formed on November 29, later turning into Hurricane Epsilon, the last of 15 hurricanes to occur during the season.

The 2005 season also produced a Zeta storm on December 29, the 28th and final named storm of the season.

I find it interesting that accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), although above average this year, is no where near the top ten years.  (We're currently at about 60% of the top 7 years' ACE average.)  In other words, this year we have lots (and I mean lots!) of weak or short lived storms. For a technical approach, see this Wikipedia page.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #386 on: October 28, 2020, 03:24:36 PM »
NWS is now predicting Zeta will be a stronger hurricane at landfall then ever previously predicted (100 mph winds - Category 2) (in 10 hours +/- a few)

From Newsweek
Quote
The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season has been "extremely active" and with the formation of Tropical Storm Zeta, the season has now broken the record for earliest 27th named storm.

Early Sunday morning, the cyclone went from a tropical depression to a tropical storm, earning it the name Zeta in accordance with the Greek alphabet. The last time a hurricane season produced 27 storms was in 2005, when a tropical storm formed on November 29, later turning into Hurricane Epsilon, the last of 15 hurricanes to occur during the season.

The 2005 season also produced a Zeta storm on December 29, the 28th and final named storm of the season.

I find it interesting that accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), although above average this year, is no where near the top ten years.  (We're currently at about 60% of the top 7 years' ACE average.)  In other words, this year we have lots (and I mean lots!) of weak or short lived storms. For a technical approach, see this Wikipedia page.

That is not all.  While the North Atlantic is running about 50% above average, the entire Pacific basin is running 50% below average.  With the Pacific basin accounting for an average of 3x the activity of the North Atlantic, the resulting ACE is about 30% below average.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #387 on: October 28, 2020, 03:31:59 PM »
Marshall Shepherd: "Been doing the weather thing a while now and don't recall seeing an ice storm warning and Hurricane warning simultaneously and rather close too....”
https://mobile.twitter.com/drshepherd2013/status/1321162449832316932
⬇️ Map below.

Zeta could be Category 2 Hurricane at landfall late this afternoon
Quote
BATON ROUGE, La. (WAFB) - Hurricane Zeta continues to show signs of strengthening as it approaches the Southeast Louisiana coast.

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Zeta to become a Category 2 hurricane prior to landfall.

As Zeta prepares for landfall, the hurricane is expected to weaken slightly or no longer strengthen. Therefore, a powerful hurricane is taking aim at Louisiana. Landfall is forecast to occur late this afternoon or early this evening along the Terrebonne/Lafourche Coasts.

Zeta’s landfall will mark the record-breaking fifth named storm to make landfall in the state this year.

Zeta will quickly move inland over metro New Orleans and the Northshore of Lake Pontchartrain through the evening. Storm surge and strong damaging winds are the main concerns associated with Zeta in these areas. Thankfully, Zeta will be moving through the area very quickly meaning the duration of significant rain, wind, and surge will be brief. ...
https://www.wafb.com/2020/10/28/zeta-could-be-category-hurricane-landfall-late-this-afternoon/
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #388 on: October 28, 2020, 05:39:19 PM »
Tor, that is the opposite of what would be expected of AGW, if I understand it correctly...fewer storms but stronger ones.
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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #389 on: October 28, 2020, 07:59:01 PM »
Who really know what to expect? Tropical cyclones will have more energy in warmer world. But how will they spend this energy?

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #390 on: October 29, 2020, 01:01:08 AM »

https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1321561162622799872

National Hurricane Center
@NHC_Atlantic ·2h
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that #Zeta is making landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana with maximum sustained winds around 110 mph. http://nhc.noaa.gov/#Zeta

https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1321573524146827265
5 PM CDT Hurricane #Zeta update: The eyewall of Zeta is approaching New Orleans with strong winds, while life-threatening storm surge is ongoing near the coast. http://nhc.noaa.gov/#Zeta

https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1321589000243564544
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #391 on: October 29, 2020, 03:17:54 PM »
Wow, still a tropical storm over westernmost North Carolina (at least, 2 hours ago)!
NWS site  I have friends who live near Cherokee, NC (under the X).

Sadly,
Quote
Three people have died following Hurricane Zeta's landfall in southeast Louisiana Wednesday.
« Last Edit: October 29, 2020, 03:24:12 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #392 on: October 29, 2020, 11:19:12 PM »
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/10/29/13-killed-dozens-missing-after-typhoon-molave-lashes-vietnam
21 killed, dozens missing after Typhoon Molave lashes Vietnam
The fourth storm to hit Vietnam in a month, Molave damaged some 56,000 homes and left millions without electricity.

And now the Philippines gets super typhoon GONI, and later Vietnam gets it as well.
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J Cartmill

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #393 on: October 30, 2020, 03:32:10 PM »
GFS model has newly formed 96L wandering around the Caribbean for two weeks.
 Jamaica is still reeling from Zeta flooding.



gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #394 on: October 31, 2020, 07:19:45 PM »
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/10/super-typhoon-goni-intensifies-to-category-5-in-the-pacific-becoming-strongest-storm-of-2020/

Super Typhoon Goni intensifies to category 5 in the Pacific, becoming strongest storm of 2020
Though the storm is expected to weaken ahead of landfall in the Philippines, it's still likely to cause a major disaster.
By Jeff Masters, Ph.D. | Friday, October 30, 2020
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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Aluminium

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #395 on: October 31, 2020, 09:50:47 PM »
884 mb / 170 kt (18:00 UTC). Typhoon Goni is something.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #396 on: October 31, 2020, 11:00:22 PM »
Hurricane alert for our friends in Nicaragua (for Tuesday).  Tropical Depression Twenty-Nine (soon to be Tropical Storm Eta).
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gerontocrat

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #397 on: October 31, 2020, 11:26:07 PM »
884 mb / 170 kt (18:00 UTC). Typhoon Goni is something.
And will make landfall as a super typhoon
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #398 on: November 01, 2020, 09:31:56 PM »
Zeta leaves over 2.1 million customers without power and at least 6 dead after battering Gulf Coast - CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/29/weather/hurricane-zeta-thursday/index.html


National Hurricane Center: "Tropical Storm #Eta Advisory 2: Tropical Depression Becomes Tropical Storm Eta. Hurricane Watch Issued For Portions of the Northeastern Coasts Of Nicaragua and Honduras. https://t.co/VqHn0u1vgc
https://mobile.twitter.com/nhc_atlantic/status/1322732101708345345
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vox_mundi

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Re: Hurricane Season 2020
« Reply #399 on: November 03, 2020, 12:42:12 AM »
Rapid intensification is a technical term for when storms see a 35 mph increase in wind speed over 24 hours. Eta smashed that definition out of the park and is the second-fastest wind speed ramp up on record, trailing only Hurricane Delta from earlier this year.

Eta was a barely a tropical storm 36 hours ago, with winds of 40 mph. By Monday afternoon, though, it exploded into a Category 4 beast, with winds of 130 mph, and it could strengthen even further ahead of landfall on Tuesday.

The National Hurricane Center is calling for “catastrophic” conditions. Along the coast, storm surge could be essentially unsurvivable, with water heights reaching up 18 feet (5.5 meters) above ground.

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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late