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gerontocrat

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2021 CO2 Emissions
« on: April 20, 2021, 05:32:10 PM »
First the bad news. Then we await the worse news?

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/apr/20/carbon-emissions-to-soar-in-2021-by-second-highest-rate-in-history
Carbon emissions to soar in 2021 by second highest rate in history
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Carbon dioxide emissions are forecast to jump this year by the second biggest annual rise in history, as global economies pour stimulus cash into fossil fuels in the recovery from the Covid-19 recession.

The leap will be second only to the massive rebound 10 years ago after the financial crisis, and will put climate hopes out of reach unless governments act quickly, the International Energy Agency has warned.

Surging use of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, for electricity is largely driving the emissions rise, especially across Asia but also in the US. Coal’s rebound causes particular concern because it comes despite plunging prices for renewable energy, which is now cheaper than coal.

Speaking exclusively to the Guardian, Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA, and one of the world’s leading authorities on energy and climate, said: “This is shocking and very disturbing. On the one hand, governments today are saying climate change is their priority. But on the other hand, we are seeing the second biggest emissions rise in history. It is really disappointing.

Emissions need to be cut by 45% this decade, if the world is to limit global heating to 1.5C (2.7F), scientists have warned. That means the 2020s must be the decade when the world changes course, before the level of carbon in the atmosphere rises too high to avoid dangerous levels of heating. But the scale of the current emissions rebound from the Covid-19 crisis means “our starting point is definitely not a good one”, said Birol.

Birol compared the current surge of emissions to the financial crisis, when emissions rose by more than 6% in 2010 after countries tried to stimulate their economies through cheap fossil fuel energy. “It seems we are back on course to repeat the same mistakes,” he warned. “I am more disappointed this time than in 2010.”

Emissions plunged by a record 7% globally last year, owing to the lockdowns that followed the Covid-19 outbreak. But by the end of the year, they were already rebounding, and on track to exceed 2019 levels in some areas.

The IEA’s projections for 2021 show emissions are likely to end this year still down slightly on 2019 levels, but on a rising path.

Next year there could be even stronger rises as air travel returns, Birol added. Aviation would normally contribute more than 2% of global emissions, but has been almost absent this past year.


In its Global Energy Review, published on Tuesday, the IEA found that global carbon emissions from energy use, which accounts for the great majority of greenhouse gas emissions, were on course to rise by 1.5bn tonnes in 2021, after having fallen last year. That represents a 5% rise to 33bn tonnes of carbon dioxide for the year. After more than half a decade of decline, global coal demand is forecast to grow by 4.5%, approaching its all-time peak in 2014.

China is planning to build scores of coal-fired power stations, despite pledging last year to reach net zero emissions by 2060. The country’s five-year economic plan, set out by Beijing last month, contained little detail on curbing emissions before 2030. However, after a surprise visit to Shanghai by the US climate envoy, John Kerry, the US and China pledged cooperation on greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade.

Coal use is also surging in the US, reversing annual declines since 2013. Birol said this was the result of high gas prices, which are driving a switch from gas to coal for electricity generation. Donald Trump as president scrapped regulations put in place by Barack Obama to curb coal use by power stations. Biden is considering further measures to hasten the move to renewable energy.

Nicholas Stern, a climate economist and the chair of the Grantham research institute on climate change at the London School of Economics, said the IEA findings “show that countries really must act with greater urgency to accelerate the transition to zero-carbon pathways if we are to have a chance of emissions being reduced in line with the Paris agreement. This is a crucial and historic opportunity to build back differently from the polluting ways of the past and in particular to move much more quickly away from coal. A strong and sustainable recovery will come from less coal not more.”
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Re: 2021 CO2 Emissions
« Reply #1 on: April 21, 2021, 04:29:54 AM »
 and yet still down from 2019.

dnem

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Re: 2021 CO2 Emissions
« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2021, 04:43:45 PM »
and yet for the US to meet Biden's pledge of reducing US emissions by 50% by 2030 we'd need to reduce emissions by about 7% per year, year on year, for every year remaining in the decade.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2021 CO2 Emissions
« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2021, 07:27:34 PM »
and yet for the US to meet Biden's pledge of reducing US emissions by 50% by 2030 we'd need to reduce emissions by about 7% per year, year on year, for every year remaining in the decade.


https://www.npr.org/2021/04/22/988051091/biden-makes-new-pledge-for-u-s-greenhouse-gas-emissions-a-50-cut?t=1619108594772
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President Biden opened a global summit on climate change Thursday morning by announcing that the United States will aim to cut its greenhouse gas emissions in half, based on 2005 levels, by the end of the decade.

Choosing 2005 as the start point meant the USA chose the maximum year for emissions.
2019 Emissions were 14% below 2005.

The decade ends on 31/12/2029. We are already 1 year and nearly 4 months into the decade.
Betcha 2029 becomes 2030.

I am sure world CO2 emissions will reduce this decade. Enough to avoid 1.5 degrees? I doubt it.

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"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

The Walrus

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Re: 2021 CO2 Emissions
« Reply #4 on: April 22, 2021, 08:41:34 PM »
Of course he chose the highest value for comparison.  That is what politicians do.  It would be much harder to cut 50% from 2020 levels.  We actually have 9 years and 8 months to accomplish this, which while daunting, is not impossible.  IMO, I do not believe we can reach this goal, but do not let that stand in the way of good press coverage.

dnem

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Re: 2021 CO2 Emissions
« Reply #5 on: April 23, 2021, 06:33:30 PM »
It's not a huge difference. The 2005 value was about 6,000 million metric tons. The 2019 value was about 5138, so we're talking about getting down to 3,000 as opposed to 2569. The year-on-year percent reductions needed to hit either target aren't dramatically different and are both about equally as unlikely! It boils down to about one year difference if we actually began to decarbonize at the needed rate.