Sea Level Rise and Social Cost of Carbon

[morganism]

Rising seas will cut off many properties before they’re flooded
Along the US coasts, many properties will lose access to essential services.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2023/03/rising-seas-will-cut-off-many-properties-before-theyre-flooded/


https://research.uintel.co.nz/slr-usa/

[Alexander555]

Tipping point.

[vox_mundi]

Rising Seas are Causing Septic Systems to Fail, Finds Researcher
https://news.miami.edu/stories/2023/05/rising-seas-are-causing-septic-systems-to-fail.html

A University of Miami industrial engineering graduate student has conducted research that shows which sites in Miami-Dade County are at risk and proposes strategies to make those systems more resilient to sea level rise.

It is a scenario that plays out at least three times a year at Matthew Lawrence's Central Broward County home: torrential rains saturate the drain field in his backyard, causing his septic system to operate inefficiently.

"It's never gotten to the point where sewage comes to the surface, and that's owing to the fact that I maintain my system well and take proper precautions," said Lawrence, a commercial and residential developer. "But what's going to happen when storms get worse and the rains heavier?"

For many residents in coastal areas impacted by climate change, that question already has been answered. As prolonged rains and rising seas continue to raise water table levels, their septic systems are failing, causing wastewater to back up into their homes and creating risks to clean water, ecosystems, and public health.

With about 2.6 million septic tanks in Florida—120,000 in Miami-Dade County alone, according to the environmental nonprofit Miami Waterkeeper—Amer's research couldn't be timelier, she noted.

Using records from Miami-Dade's Open Data Hub as well as other publicly available sources, she identified properties in the county that have active septic systems, then designed a resilience index scale of 0 to 1 to determine how resilient those septic systems are to the effects of rising groundwater. She eliminated septic systems that had been abandoned.

She used current sea levels rates and examined other data such as a property's proximity to flood-risk zones, finding that nearly 32% of the existing sites in her study have a resilience index below 0.5 and that approximately 18% have a resilience index less than 0.1.

"A resilience index of 1 means that the system is not subject to failure; or if it did malfunction, the likelihood of polluting other freshwater sources would be minimal," Amer explained. "Lower resilience values mean that those systems are not meeting the minimum operating requirements for septic and could already be contaminating groundwater."

As sea levels continue to rise, septic sites that are currently resilient could be compromised, she warned.

[gerontocrat]

Yet another indication that we have less time than we thought. I would not be surprised to see another report in a few years time saying - even less time, or we've run out of time

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-65617171
Thames flood defences must be raised sooner, says Environment Agency

Tidal flood defences must be raised 15 years earlier than expected as sea levels rise, the Environment Agency says.

An updated plan is designed to ensures communities in London and the wider Thames Estuary are ready to adapt to the impact of climate change.

It sets out how it will protect more than 1.4 million people and £321 billion of property from tidal floods.

The plan says defences must be raised upstream of the Thames Barrier by 2050.

The Environment Agency has assured Londoners that the Thames Barrier continues to operate reliably and effectively as part of the wider flood defence system.

It expects the barrier to continue to protect London until 2070.

However, to further protect the capital it has committed to deciding an end-of-century option by 2040.

The plan also calls for riverside strategies to be embedded into local planning frameworks by 2030 to ensure that new developments factor in future flood defence requirements.

'Essential we act now'
Julie Foley, the Environment Agency's FCRM Strategy & National Adaptation Director, said: "Sea levels are rising at an accelerated rate across the Thames Estuary, and it is therefore essential that we act now to respond to the changing climate.

"Our updated plan recognises that defence raising needs to start earlier than originally thought - by some 15 years.

"Alongside, the plan also requires greater investment in habitats and natural flood management to support nature recovery.

"We cannot deliver the ambitions of the updated Thames Estuary 2100 Plan on our own.

"That is why we will continue to work with many partners to deliver a green and resilient estuary."

Last summer over 1,000 properties across London were severely flooded during intense storms.

A report found that Thames Water was slow to respond to the floods because it had struggled to understand what caused them and their impact.

It added that the company did not plan for the storms properly, gave customers unclear messages about what to do, and failed to update local councillors and MPs about what was happening.

[vox_mundi]

ESA Video: Annual Global Ice Loss Simulated Over Oslo
https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Videos/2023/05/Annual_global_ice_loss_simulated_over_Oslo



Using information from ESA’s ERS, Envisat and CryoSat satellites as well as the Copernicus Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 missions, research led by Tom Slater of the University of Leeds, found that the rate at which Earth has lost ice has increased markedly within the past three decades. Currently, more than a trillion tonnes of ice is lost each year.

To put this into perspective, this is equivalent to an ice cube measuring 10x10x10 km over Oslo’s skyline. Putting it another way, the amount of ice loss globally is equivalent to 12 000 times the annual water use of the Norwegian capital.

[Alexander555]

"International refugee law" because of rising sea levels. If you take this together with the places that will become unsuitable for humans because of the heat . Than we are talking about a few billion people. So they prepare to move a few billion people. And where are they going to find dozens of millions of square km to produce their food ? Because that land will be lost. That international refugee law smells like global suicide. If that's the only solution they can come up with, they can better stop with it. Probably we will have to fight for our soil anyway. We don't need an interational law to bring them here. https://press.un.org/en/2023/sgsm21688.doc.htm

[kassy]

But what if it was the other way around? Ever thought about that?

[Alexander555]

Yes i did, i'm not that far above sea level. Keep your place clean and healthy. And we would  not have these troubles.

[Alexander555]

Just imagine, we let everything die and lets evacuate a couple billion people. For what reason would we let that happen ? For the profits, for our freedoms, our holidays and dividends......What will be left of that. That british guy with his private island. One hurricane and everything was gone. No place left to land the private jet. Maybe i'm wrong, but i think for many people there want be many freedoms left. If i look at these big farmers over here. They have no land anymore, they just import the food for their animals from South America. And how will south america look like in the future ? The temperature a little higher, the amazon forest a little thinner. No sure if they will be able to send something. Gated communities where some can hide maybe.

[vox_mundi]

Greenland Melted Some 416,000 Years Ago, Shows High Risk of Causing Sea Level Rise Today
https://phys.org/news/2023-07-greenland-years-high-sea-today.html

During the Cold War, a secret U.S. Army mission, at Camp Century in northwestern Greenland, drilled down through 4,560 feet of ice on the frozen island—and then kept drilling to pull out a twelve-foot-long tube of soil and rock from below the ice. Then this icy sediment was lost in a freezer for decades. It was accidentally rediscovered in 2017 and was shown to hold not just sediment but also leaves and moss, remnants of an ice-free landscape, perhaps a boreal forest.

But how long ago were those plants growing—where today stands an ice sheet two miles thick and three times the size of Texas?

An international team of scientists was amazed to discover that Greenland was a green land only 416,000 years ago (with an error margin of about 38,000 years). Their new study has been published in the journal Science.

Until recently, geologists believed that Greenland was a fortress of ice, mostly unmelted for millions of years. But, two years ago, using the rediscovered Camp Century ice core, this team of scientists showed that it likely melted less than 1 million years ago. Other scientists, working in central Greenland, gathered data showing the ice there melted at least once in the last 1.1 million years—but until this study, no one knew exactly when the ice was gone.

Now, using advanced luminescence technology and rare isotope analysis, the team has created a starker picture: large portions of Greenland's ice sheet melted much more recently than a million years ago. The new study presents direct evidence that sediment just beneath the ice sheet was deposited by flowing water in an ice-free environment during a moderate warming period called Marine Isotope Stage 11, from 424,000 to 374,000 years ago. This melting caused at least five feet of sea level rise around the globe.

"It's really the first bulletproof evidence that much of the Greenland ice sheet vanished when it got warm"

Since about 23 feet of sea-level rise is tied up in Greenland's ice, every coastal region in the world is at risk. The new study provides strong and precise evidence that Greenland is more sensitive to climate change than previously understood—and at grave risk of irreversibly melting off.



... The team's new study in Science, combined with their earlier work, is causing a major and worrisome rethinking of the history of Greenland's ice sheet. "We had always assumed that the Greenland ice sheet formed about two and a half million years ago—and has just been there this whole time and that it's very stable," says Tammy Rittenour, a scientist at Utah State University and co-author on the new study. "Maybe the edges melted, or with more snowfall it got a bit fatter—but it doesn't go away and it doesn't dramatically melt back. But this paper shows that it did."

Camp Century is 138 miles inland from the coast and only 800 miles from the North Pole; the new Science study shows that the region entirely melted and was covered with vegetation during Marine Isotope Stage 11, a long interglacial with temperatures similar to or slightly warmer than today. With this information, the team's models show that, during that period, the ice sheet melted enough to cause at least five feet, and perhaps as much as 20 feet, of sea-level rise.

The research lines up with findings from two other ice cores collected in 1990s from the center of Greenland. Sediment from these cores also suggest that the giant ice sheet melted in the recent geologic past. The combination of these earlier cores with the new insight from Camp Century reveal the fragile nature of the entire Greenland ice sheet—in the past (at 280 parts per million of atmospheric CO2 or less) and today (422ppm and rising).

"If we melt just portions of the Greenland ice sheet, the sea level rises dramatically," says Utah's Tammy Rittenour. "Forward modeling the rates of melt, and the response to high carbon dioxide, we are looking at meters of sea level rise, probably tens of meters. And then look at the elevation of New York City, Boston, Miami, Amsterdam. Look at India and Africa—most global population centers are near sea level."

"Four-hundred-thousand years ago there were no cities on the coast," says UVM's Paul Bierman, "and now there are cities on the coast."

Andrew J. Christ et al, Deglaciation of northwestern Greenland during Marine Isotope Stage 11, Science (2023)
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.ade4248

[kiwichick16]

@  vox mundi.......Ooops !!

[neal]

The combination of these earlier cores with the new insight from Camp Century reveal the fragile nature of the entire Greenland ice sheet—in the past (at 280 parts per million of atmospheric CO2 or less) and today (422ppm and rising).

"If we melt just portions of the Greenland ice sheet, the sea level rises dramatically," says Utah's Tammy Rittenour. "Forward modeling the rates of melt, and the response to high carbon dioxide, we are looking at meters of sea level rise, probably tens of meters. And then look at the elevation of New York City, Boston, Miami, Amsterdam. Look at India and Africa—most global population centers are near sea level."

Still the softening/distancing, "if we melt just portions of the Greenland ice sheet"

Where, exactly does the IF and JUST PORTIONS come in?

422 vs 280 ppm

And we're still spinning up the climate flywheel with even more GHG from human-directed sources and are setting free huge "natural" methane sources

[kassy]

Well on basis of this data you cannot conclude all of it melted and we only need to melt a part to make it much worse (as the ice sheet gets lower it is in warmer temperatures).

Also it is only the first few metres that really matter.

One thing we still don´t know is how fast it will all happen.

[neal]

Also it is only the first few metres that really matter.

Interesting....

And why is that?

[kassy]

Well a big proportion of humanity lives near the coast. It is also where our harbors are and where our rivers meet the sea. Yes that is coasts.

If you add 1M to the current sea level that would be problematic for many places on the shore.

Cities get flooded but salt water also gets into the land.

As the ocean rises it pushes the river back. Usually rivers create a plume of sediment in the oceans but we cap many with dams or just by using all the water. Plus long term we are losing snow run off. When sea level rises above the outflow the salt water will go into the river and it can easily go a long way in land and the salt will intrude the local aquafers.

Of course at 2 meters it is going to be worse and by then our economic model is not really going to work very well.

At current projections we (as in the Netherlands) will have a problem by 2100. This does not factor in the Thwaites collapse or Greenland losing more mass then we think it would but for the latter we do not know how fast it will be.

[vox_mundi]

Big Waves Becoming More Common Off California as Earth Warms, New Research Finds
https://phys.org/news/2023-08-surfs-california-bigger-earth.html

Waves are getting bigger and surf at least 13 feet (about 4 meters) tall is becoming more common off California's coast as the planet warms, according to innovative new research that tracked the increasing height from historical data gathered over the past 90 years.

... They found that average winter wave heights have grown by as much as a foot since 1970, when global warming is believed to have begun accelerating. Swells at least 13 feet tall (about 4 meters) are also happening a lot more often, occurring at least twice as often between 1996 to 2016 than from 1949 to 1969.

"There's about twice as many big wave events since 1970 as there was prior to 1970," Bromirski said.

Bromirski was also surprised to find extended periods of exceptionally low wave heights prior to about 1970 and none of those periods since.

"Erosion, coastal flooding, damage to coastal infrastructure is, you know, something that we're seeing more frequently than in the past," Bromirski said. "And, you know, combined with sea level rise, bigger waves mean that is going to happen more often."

The study, published Tuesday in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, adds to the evidence that climate change is causing massive shifts in the world's oceans. Other studies have shown waves are not only getting taller but also more powerful.

Climate-Induced Decadal Ocean Wave Height Variability From Microseisms: 1931–2021, Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans (2023)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023JC019722

[vox_mundi]

US High Tide Flooding Continues to Break Records
https://phys.org/news/2023-08-high-tide.html

Coastal communities in eight locations along the East and West coasts experienced record high tide flooding last year—a trend that is expected to continue in 2024. For many communities, the expected strengthening of El Niño will bring even more high tide flood days.

The 2023 Annual High Tide Flooding Outlook documents high tide flooding events from May 2022 to April 2023 at 98 NOAA tide gauges along the U.S. coast. It also provides a flooding outlook for these 98 locations through April 2024 and decadal projections out to 2050.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/high-tide-flooding/annual-outlook.html

U.S. coastal communities saw a record-breaking number of high tide flood days in 2022 at three stations. On the Southeast coast, Trident Pier, Florida, saw 16 days, two more than in 2020, and Vaca Key, Florida, saw two days, one more than in 2017. In the Caribbean, Magueyes Island, Puerto Rico, saw two days, which increased from one event in 1998.

Five locations tied their previous records. On the Mid-Atlantic, Kiptopeke, Virginia, tied its 1997 record, with 11 high tide flood days observed. Along the Southeast coast, Fort Pulaski, Georgia, observed 13 days, tying its 2019 record, while Fernandina Beach, Florida, observed nine days, tying its 2015 record. On the eastern Gulf, Naples, Florida, tied its 2017 record of three days. On the West Coast, Port Townsend, Washington, observed 13 flood days, tying its 1982 record.

NOAA predicts that from May 2023 to April 2024 the U.S. will experience between four to nine high tide flood days—an increase from last year's prediction of three to seven days and about three times as many than typically occurred in 2000.

This year, the expected strengthening of El Niño could further amplify high tide flooding frequencies along the East and West coasts. Communities on the Mid-Atlantic and Gulf coasts are expected to experience the most high tide flooding, as El Niño conditions will compound the effects of sea level rise in some areas.

For the Mid-Atlantic, nine to 15 days are predicted, an almost 350% increase since the year 2000. Along the western Gulf, seven to 14 days are predicted, an almost 350% increase since the year 2000.

For the Pacific Northwest, four to 11 high tide flood days are predicted—approximately a 150% increase over the year 2000, and for the Pacific Southwest, one to five days are predicted, an almost 100% increase since 2000.

.... This year, to help coastal communities better understand when and where high tide flooding may occur, NOAA has released a new Monthly High Tide Flooding Outlook. It provides the likelihood of high tide flooding for each day in the calendar year, up to a year in advance, at NOAA tide gauge locations across the country.

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/high-tide-flooding/monthly-outlook.html

The Monthly High Tide Flooding Outlook does not account for real-time conditions or weather forecasts; however, it provides critical situational awareness about windows of time that have higher flooding risks. As potential flood days grow near, the monthly outlook can be paired with weather forecasts to understand if an upcoming storm event might compound impacts from already elevated water levels.

... By 2050, the nation is expected to experience an average of 45 to 85 high tide flooding days per year. Long-term projections are based on the ranges of expected relative sea level rise of about a foot, on average, across the United States by 2050. Data specific to each NOAA tide gauge can be found on the Annual High Tide Flooding Outlook website.

[vox_mundi]

At Risk From Rising Seas, Norfolk, Virginia, Plans Massive, Controversial Floodwall
https://www.npr.org/2023/09/02/1193726251/at-risk-from-rising-seas-norfolk-virginia-plans-massive-controversial-floodwall

Kim Sudderth loves the "porch culture" of Norfolk's tight-knit Berkley area.

But there's a downside: many of the neighborhood's streets flood just about every time it rains.

"It's kind of a way of life," Sudderth said. "We're doing our best to work with the water."

On a recent muggy morning, she pointed to the evidence on her street corner: standing water still pooled from a downpour a few days prior. On rainy days, she said, the flooding can be bad enough that someone might lose their car.

That kind of flooding disrupts life all over Norfolk during rainstorms or even high tides — swamping intersections, ruining cars and cutting some neighborhoods off from the rest of the city. Climate change is making the problem worse. Sea levels are rising faster in Norfolk than anywhere else on the East Coast, driven by a combination of warming oceans and sinking land in the region.

The city is now moving forward with a massive floodwall project to protect itself, in partnership with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. The project will include tide gates, levees, pump stations and nature-based features like oyster reefs and vegetation along the shoreline. It's one of the biggest infrastructure efforts in city history – and an example of projects the Corps has proposed up and down the U.S. coastline, from New York to Texas.

https://www.resilientnorfolk.com/

But the $2.6 billion project largely won't protect neighborhoods like Sudderth's from the regular flooding they already experience.

Instead, the project is meant to shield the city from a catastrophic storm. It specifically targets storm surge, the abnormal rush of water generated during major storms like hurricanes.

"We should call it the catastrophe wall or the hurricane wall, because floodwall is kind of a misleading statement," said Jay Ford, Virginia policy advisor with the Chesapeake Bay Foundation.

While Ford and other critics agree that major storms pose a serious threat to the city, they argue it's shortsighted to spend billions of dollars on a project that doesn't address existing flooding – especially because that flooding is expected to worsen as climate change drives more intense rain and higher sea levels.

"For a lot of folks in Hampton Roads, sea level rise means the sun is out and you're just trying to get your kid to school but for some reason there is a completely flooded road," Ford said. "This project won't do anything to alleviate that."

... Sudderth and her neighbors have another concern: ... "We're going to be left out," Sudderth said she thought when she first learned about the plan.

... Sudderth, who sits on the city's Planning Commission, said the communities left out are among those that were historically discriminated against through practices like redlining, in which banks and governments refused to invest in communities of color.

She felt like history was repeating itself. ..."It's 2023, and it's still happening."

...  Critics say the current approach can also steer the Corps toward a focus on big projects to prevent big disasters, overlooking the slower, creeping costs of climate change. That includes so-called sunny day flooding from rising seas, as well as flash flooding from heavy rain.

[vox_mundi]

Global Warming–Induced Sea Level Changes Could Increase Earthquake Risk
https://phys.org/news/2023-11-global-warminginduced-sea-earthquake.html



Correlation of marine isotope stages, based on marine benthic oxygen isotopes, and electron spin dating of fault gouges from four fault zones in the Korean Peninsula

The Korean Peninsula is situated along the eastern edge of the Eurasian Plate and has been a source of earthquake activity for millennia, influenced by multiple seismic zones—the subduction of the Pacific plate beneath the Philippine plate, and the convergence of the Indian and Eurasian plates, which resulted in the Himalayan mountain range.

During the time of historical and instrumental records, more than 4,200 earthquakes have been documented in the Korean Peninsula, most being category 1–4, though approximately 20% were category 5, causing some structural damage to buildings. The Gyeongju earthquake of 2016 was the largest on record in the region, with a magnitude of 5.8, and caused secondary issues such as ground fractures and liquefaction (when loose, water-logged sediments lose strength due to shaking and overlying structures collapse into the ground).

New research, published in Quaternary Science Reviews, has explored the possibility of the earthquakes being triggered by the global-scale activity of Earth's glacial cycles. Specifically, Man-Jae Kim and Hee-Kwon Lee, of Kangwon National University, South Korea, investigated the possible link to interglacial periods occurring over 100,000 year cycles.

The researchers used electron spin resonance (ESR) dating to age fault gouges, whereby microwave energy is absorbed by unpaired electrons in the magnetic field of particular radioactive elements within the rock as they decay, therefore allowing age determination as the unpaired electrons accumulate.

Fault gouges are fine-grained clay-like material tens of meters thick along the strike-slip fault planes where two landmasses move past each other and deform the intervening rock. These fault zones within the Korean Peninsula are complex, having experienced deformation overlays in opposite directions over time (changing from sinistral to dextral strike-slip motion).

Kim and Lee analyzed more than 450 ESR age dates and determined paleo-earthquakes in this intraplate setting coincided with five key interglacial periods (termed marine isotope stages 15, 13, 11, 9 and 7) over the last 650,000 years, based upon oxygen isotopes from benthic marine foraminifera (single-celled organisms). They postulate that rapid changes in sea levels due to the melting of expansive ice sheets during these climate intervals may have played a significant role in triggering seismic events.

One theory is that this may result from stress release due to glacial unloading, as the weight of ice over the landmass reduces with melting. Previous studies have shown that unloading can impact the seismic stress field several hundred kilometers from the ice sheet margin, thus expanding the possibility of intraplate earthquake activity.

However, given that Quaternary (2.58 million years ago to the present) ice sheets may have been too far from the Korean Peninsula to elicit such a response, the researchers instead suggest compressive stress on the underlying lithosphere from glacial meltwater loading causing rising sea levels across the Pacific Ocean may be the answer.

This research has important implications for modern day seismic activity as climate change exacerbates glacier melting and subsequently sea level rise, with the potential to trigger more earthquakes in the future. This will require seismic-prone areas to plan strategies to mitigate against the social, environmental and economic damage caused by earthquake events.

Man-Jae Kim et al, Long-term patterns of earthquakes influenced by climate change: Insights from earthquake recurrence and stress field changes across the Korean Peninsula during interglacial periods, Quaternary Science Reviews (2023)
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379123004171?via%3Dihub

[Richard Rathbone]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-67418276

When sea level changes, so does your rent

With sea levels rising around the globe, Miami, in the US state of Florida, is facing an urgent need to adapt. As property investors turn their gaze inland, away from the exclusive low-lying beach area, residents in one poorer neighbourhood further above sea level say rising rents are forcing them out.

This piece is about a Miami neighbourhood, but I've seen similar stories elsewhere, the economic effects aren't just at the beach.

[gerontocrat]

https://search.earthdata.nasa.gov/search/granules?p=C2205556193-POCLOUD&pg[0][v]=f&pg[0][gsk]=-start_date&q=sea%20level%20rise&ff=Available%20in%20Earthdata%20Cloud&tl=1665594246!3!!

Which is the NASA Earthdata link for global sea level rise, that has just been updated to early November

The graph attached shows that as happened in the 97/98 and 2015/2016 El Ninos, 2023 is seeing a rapid rise in Global Sea levels, nearly 14 mms in the 12 months early Nov 22 to early Nov 23.

One may expect to see an even higher spike in at least the first half of 2024, and then a big fall.

Nevertheless, it does look like in the longterm the rise in global sea level is accelerating.

ps: NASA has revised the data going back to 1994. It is a complicated algorithm using several data sources

[CalamityCountdown]

As pointed out by Gerontocrat in the previous post in this thread, it appears as if sea level rise is going parabolic. But then it did so in 2014-2015 as well. Time will tell if the upslope of the sea level rise trend line is getting steeper.

Another source for the same info is https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ It also includes a second graph, which is from coastal tide gauge and satellite data, shows how much sea level changed from about 1900 to 2018

[The Walrus]

As pointed out by Gerontocrat in the previous post in this thread, it appears as if sea level rise is going parabolic. But then it did so in 2014-2015 as well. Time will tell if the upslope of the sea level rise trend line is getting steeper.

Another source for the same info is https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ It also includes a second graph, which is from coastal tide gauge and satellite data, shows how much sea level changed from about 1900 to 2018

Appearances can be deceiving.  Whenever they is an upward spike, like in 2014-15, the trend can appear to accelerate.  This statistical anomaly is called endpoint fallacy.

[Richard Rathbone]

The temperature response of the ocean is lagged. The bigger the difference between surface temperature and ocean temperature, the faster the ocean heats up, and the faster the sea level  rises. As long as the surface is being warmed faster, the rate of rise accelerates. Stop warming the surface and sea level rise doesn't stop immediately, it decelerates. Acceleration is there in the data and it would be very suspicious if it wasn't because acceleration is a simple consequence of obvious lags in the temperature response of the ocean.

[neal]

a point of data on sea rise from Miami via Brian McNoldy (senior research associate University of Miami)

.26 inches a year, without the effect of the 18.6 year Lunar Nodal Cycle--the cycle is now ending the phase where it lowers apparent water level.

[Sublime_Rime]

I agree that this last spike is likely related to steric effects from the increased rate of ocean warming + El nino. When such increased rates of rise don't correlated with ENSO, and can only be explained by land ice, we will be in trouble. I will be keeping an eye out for work being done to deconvolve steric effects from ice melt.

[CalamityCountdown]

This is a shameless promotion of a blog post that utilizes the rise in sea level between May 4 and September 29 of 4.7 mm (0.36 inches) to mock climate science deniers.

https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/6336889634373515074/5857359470589633528

I attempted to find a good spot to put information about the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle into the post, but it just didn't seem to fit. But thanks to Neal for his post about this cycle
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,874.msg392245.html#msg392245

For reference, here is a link to an another article about this lunar cycle
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/443/2023/

[squilliam]

This is a shameless promotion of a blog post that utilizes the rise in sea level between May 4 and September 29 of 4.7 mm (0.36 inches) to mock climate science deniers.

https://www.blogger.com/blog/post/edit/6336889634373515074/5857359470589633528

I attempted to find a good spot to put information about the 18.6-year lunar nodal cycle into the post, but it just didn't seem to fit. But thanks to Neal for his post about this cycle
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,874.msg392245.html#msg392245

For reference, here is a link to an another article about this lunar cycle
https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/14/443/2023/

There seems to be a problem with your link, I think it's because you posted your own web address rather than a direct link to the blog post. It prompts me to create a new blog, and I see the word 'edit' in the link.

[CalamityCountdown]

Ooops. Good catch. Here's a link that should work to a blog post that utilizes the rise in sea level between May 4 and September 29 of 4.7 mm (0.36 inches) to mock climate science deniers. Link should have been https://calamitycountdown.blogspot.com/2024/01/why-do-gullible-folks-in-right-wing.html

[morganism]

(big series in WaPo, at least 4 articles so far)

One of the most rapid sea level surges on Earth is besieging the American South, forcing a reckoning for coastal communities across eight U.S. states, a Washington Post analysis has found.

(maps)

At more than a dozen tide gauges spanning from Texas to North Carolina, sea levels are at least 6 inches higher than they were in 2010 — a change similar to what occurred over the previous five decades.

The Gulf of Mexico has experienced twice the global average rate of sea level rise since 2010, a Post analysis of satellite data shows. Few other places on the planet have seen similar rates of increase, such as the North Sea near the United Kingdom.

“Since 2010, it’s very abnormal and unprecedented,” said Jianjun Yin, a climate scientist at the University of Arizona who has studied the changes. While it is possible the swift rate of sea level rise could eventually taper, the higher water that has already arrived in recent years is here to stay.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2024/southern-us-sea-level-rise-risk-cities/

[vox_mundi]

Ancient Greek sanctuary slowly sinks into the Aegean Sea
https://phys.org/news/2024-06-ancient-greek-sanctuary-slowly-aegean.html



Surrounded by piercing azure waters, Delos' 2,000-year-old buildings offer a microcosm of information on daily life during the Hellenistic and Roman periods.

But within decades, because of rising sea levels brought about by climate change, the site known for its temples guarded by stone lions could be gone forever, scientists warn.

"Delos is condemned to disappear in around 50 years," said Veronique Chankowski, head of the French archaeological school of Athens (EFA), which has been excavating the site for the past 150 years under license from the Greek state.

"Water enters the ruins in winter. It eats away at the base of the walls," noted Jean-Charles Moretti, the French mission's director on Delos and a researcher at the French state institute for the research of ancient architecture (IRAA).

"Every year in the spring, I notice that new walls have collapsed," Moretti, who has taken part in digs on the island for the past 40 years, told AFP.

"All coastal cities will lose significant areas currently located at sea level," said Athena-Christiana Loupou, a Greek archaeologist who guides groups through the site's main attractions.

"We replaced plastic straws with paper straws but we lost the war" to protect the environment, she said bitterly.

[vox_mundi]

Rising Sea Levels Will Disrupt Millions of Americans’ Lives by 2050, Study Finds
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/jun/25/rising-sea-levels-flooding



Sea level rise driven by global heating will disrupt the daily life of millions of Americans, as hundreds of homes, schools and government buildings face frequent and repeated flooding by 2050, a new study has found.

https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/looming-deadlines-coastal-resilience

Almost 1,100 critical infrastructure assets that sustain coastal communities will be at risk of monthly flooding by 2050, according to the new research by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). The vast majority of the assets – 934 of them – face the risk of flood disruption every other week, which could make some coastal neighborhoods unlivable within two to three decades.

Almost 3 million people currently live in the 703 US coastal communities with critical infrastructure at risk of monthly disruptive flooding by 2050, including affordable and subsidized housing, wastewater treatment facilities, toxic industrial sites, power plants, fire stations, schools, kindergartens and hospitals.



The number of critical infrastructure assets at risk of disruptive flooding is expected to nearly double compared to 2020, even when assuming a medium rate of climate-driven sea level rise (rather than the worst case scenario).

California, Florida, Louisiana, Maryland, Massachusetts and New Jersey have the most critical infrastructure that needs to be made more flood resilient – or be relocated to safer ground.

Disadvantaged coastal communities with infrastructure at risk of flooding have higher proportions of Black, Latino and Native American residents. Public and affordable housing represents the single most at-risk infrastructure in these communities.



UCS researchers identified the critical infrastructure along the entire contiguous US, as well as Guam, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, which face risk of routine flooding, using data including National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tide gauges and three sea level rise scenarios developed by a US Interagency Task Force.

Critical infrastructure includes buildings and facilities that provide functions necessary to sustain daily life – or that if flooded, could unleash environmental hazards. The full impact of coastal flooding is likely to be significantly worse, as drinking water facilities, bus and metro stations, and retirement and care facilities for older adults were not included in the UCS study

The analysis looks at flooding driven solely by sea level rise and tidal heights. Other climate-related drivers including storm surge, and heavy rainfall which can – and do – increase the risk of disruptive flooding were not included in the study.

Looming Deadlines for Coastal Resilience
https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/looming-deadlines-coastal-resilience

Report: https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/2024-06/Looming_Deadlines_for_Coastal_Resilience.pdf

Interactive Map: https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/6ca511bc6cd14ce8a4a6e18b769fb802

[oren]

Found this table in a Wapo article. The magnitude of cumulative local SLR since 2010 surprised me.

[gerontocrat]

The magnitude of cumulative local SLR since 2010 surprised me.

When the land sinks as well as SLR rising locally above global average rise you are in triple trouble.

[Richard Rathbone]

Found this table in a Wapo article. The magnitude of cumulative local SLR since 2010 surprised me.

There's a lot  of year to year variability, so if they don't show their method, its quite possible that their split has been cherry picked to make the acceleration look as big as possible. Since El Nino is one of the causes of that variability, the same year can be an effective cherry pick across multiple locations.

Take a look at this Tamino blog to see just how large that year to year variability can be.
https://tamino.wordpress.com/2024/03/19/sea-level-in-new-york-city-part-2/#more-12135

The lowess smooth shows an acceleration tripling from 2mm/yr in 1980 to 6mm/yr in 2023 at that tide gauge but there are pretty big uncertainties around it and cherry picking to make acceleration look non-existent is pretty easy. You shouldn't be surprised by results showing a doubling or tripling of the rate over this timespan, but if its higher than that, you should be suspicious of how the data has been analysed.