ENSO 2024

[gerontocrat]

We've been posting in ENSO 2023 though 'tis 2024.
Given the latest ENSO update from CPC it seems a good idea to open ENSO 2024 now.

It's a case of all change... even picked up by Bloomberg News

Next post has the CPC update

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/odds-hurricane-boosting-la-ni-140013479.html

Bloomberg
The Odds of a Hurricane-Boosting La Niña This Year Are Rising
The odds of a La Niña weather pattern this year are rising, amplifying the risk of hurricanes in the Atlantic and drought in California and South America.

There’s a 55% chance that La Niña, a cooling of the equatorial Pacific, will occur between June and August as the strong El Niño that’s currently roiling weather around the world fades, US Climate Prediction Center said Thursday.

“I think there is potentially a fairly rapid transition ahead of us,” said Michelle L’Heureux, a meteorologist at the agency.

La Niña threatens to unleash powerful hurricanes because it cuts down on shear, or winds blowing at different strength or directions at varying altitudes. It can also shift rain away from the US West and crop-growing regions in Argentina and Brazil, triggering drought.

While about 60% of strong El Niños have been followed by La Niñas, L’Heureux said no one should bank on that shift quite yet for 2024 because outlooks made before March aren’t as accurate as those made at other times of the year.

The Pacific’s surface is still quite warm, meaning El Niño is holding on, L’Heureux said. But below 100 meters (328 feet), she said, the ocean is getting cool — a sign that things are changing.

[gerontocrat]

See also next post for more images

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
8 February 2024
 
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch

 
Synopsis: A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance).

During January 2024, above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) continued across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. SST anomalies weakened slightly in the eastern and east-central Pacific, as indicated by the weekly Niño index values [Fig. 2]. However, changes were more pronounced below the surface of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with area-averaged subsurface temperature anomalies returning to near zero [Fig. 3]. Although above-average temperatures persisted in the upper 100 meters of the equatorial Pacific, below-average temperatures were widespread at greater depths [Fig. 4]. Atmospheric anomalies across the tropical Pacific also weakened during January. Low-level winds were near average over the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific. Convection remained slightly enhanced near the Date Line and was close to average around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weakening El Niño.

The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024 [Fig. 6]. Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events. The forecast team is in agreement with the latest model guidance, with some uncertainty around the timing of transitions to ENSO-neutral and, following that, La Niña. Even as the current El Niño weakens, impacts on the United States could persist through April 2024 (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation). In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance; [Fig. 7]).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 March 2024.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[gerontocrat]

CPC Feb update - more images

[be cause]

sigh of relief for y axis makers ?

[Rodius]

sigh of relief for y axis makers ?

I am not sure about that.

The temps only reduced a little bit during the last couple of La Nina events. At best, it will plateau for the duration of the La Nina then spike up a lot when it goes away and spike again next El Nino.

1.5 C by 2028.

[interstitial]

Enso forecasts are less reliable across the spring prediction barrier.

[Rodius]

Enso forecasts are less reliable across the spring prediction barrier.

Agreed.... they cant be taken too seriously.

I had a quick look at the Australia predictions compared to the actual result and they seem to do okay up until Apr/May, when they make every neutralish.

I just hope it isnt another El Nino though.
Although, a La Nina isnt exactly great in Australia either with more and bigger flooding events. We have suffered a lot over the last few years from floods... but that is the way of it moving forward I suppose.

[SeanAU]

Well over a decade ago now, I and a few others, were independently forecasting/expecting (nothing scientific mind you) that by mid-2020s or before the Enso system would falter and a new regime develop, beginning with almost every year being as hot as the old style strong el nino .... that this in itself would cause the old enso system to break down completely into some totally new domain/system.

When 2016 arrived this only confirmed our feelings that this is where we are heading. Very high temps during the last so called la nina cycle and this new el nino and how the whole "standard patterns" are being broken is tending to confirm our "imaginative intuitive and wisdom based logic" forecasting way back when.

  I wish I was still in contact with them to reflect, but I suspect most if not all are now dead. 

It is now becoming today's reality .... next forecast domino to fall? Summer ASI blue ocean event 2024 +/- 2 years .... it is still on the cards that one, moreso now than ever before. 

Goodbye the 2012 record lows .....

[gerontocrat]

This paper suggests the effects of this El Nino will last to mid 2024, and where the writers believe the highest SAT anomalies will occur.

It will be interesting to see how well reality follows the model.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-52846-2

Enhanced risk of record-breaking regional temperatures during the 2023–24 El Niño
Introduction
Changes in global surface air temperature (SAT) are influenced by external forcing (e.g., greenhouse gases) and internal climate variations1,2. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest year-to-year determinant of climate variation on the planet, affecting worldwide SAT anomalies during warm El Niño and cold La Niña phases3. During neutral and La Niña conditions, the subsurface ocean heat accumulates in the tropical western Pacific4. While, during El Niño events, the ocean releases heat to the atmosphere, primarily due to increased air-sea heat fluxes driven by elevated sea surface temperatures (SST)5. Accordingly, during El Niño phase, enhanced atmospheric heating in the tropics accelerates a rise in global annual mean surface temperature (GMST), contributing to record-breaking warming (e.g., 2015–2016)6,7. Conversely, persistent cooling in the eastern Pacific or weak El Niño activity may contribute to a global warming slowdown or hiatus as occurred during 1998–20136,8.

Global warming exhibits distinct regional patterns9. Even during the most recent hiatus period, the record high SATs still occurred in certain regions7,10 and it is recognized that a slight elevation in GMST can lead to significant amplification of regional extreme events11. Following a rare 3-year 2020–23 La Niña12,13, the evolving 2023 El Niño is expected to elevate SATs driven by human-caused climate change14,15, and make it more likely that SAT record will be broken worldwide. In fact, during the early stages of the current El Niño development, record-breaking SATs in the boreal summer of 2023 have already led to life-threatening marine and terrestrial heat waves. This study aims to address the prospect of exceptionally high SATs in the upcoming year, in connection with the further progression of the 2023–24 El Niño, and to pinpoint the specific regions where such extremes are expected to occur.

Results
......the model generates global SAT distribution for 2024 under varied El Niño strength scenarios (Fig. 3). These results reveal substantial SAT anomalies that are primarily centered in extratropical continental regions. Record-breaking SAT, on the other hand, are primarily anticipated in coastal and adjacent seas, encompassing regions in Southeast Asia, South Africa, Alaska, northern South America, and the tropical Atlantic.
(see image attached)

Implications of the results
Firstly, our results point to the likelihood of record-breaking GMST between July 2023 and June 2024, primarily driven by a developing moderate to strong El Niño event. Additionally, we offer insight into the spatial distribution of surface air temperature (SAT) and the regions where record-breaking temperatures may occur.

Elevated temperatures can lead to a significant increase in the likelihood of extreme events and risks from a range of natural hazards29,30. For instance, the possibility of record-breaking SST in the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea, and the Caribbean Sea would potentially lead to year-round marine heatwaves (see Fig. 4a–c), resulting in negative ecological, economic, and social consequences31,32,33.

The warming in Alaska (see Fig. 4d) would result in a series of negative responses or feedbacks, including glacier and permafrost melting, coastal erosion, and other negative climate impacts34.

The record-breaking SAT in the Amazon may worsen extreme weather (see Fig. 4e), increasing wildfire risk. In fact, severe wildfires and drought have already hit the Amazon this past September and October 2023

click image and click maximise for fullsize image

[morganism]

Sever Weather EU says the cold pool is already in place for the La Nina, so will appear during US hurricane season)

An early La Niña watch has been issued by NOAA, as the shift into a Cold ENSO phase is now forecast, impacting the 2024/2025 Weather patterns
(...)
Below is the latest 60-day ocean temperature anomaly change. You can very clearly see the cooling ongoing across the entire ENSO region. Many parts in the eastern region have seen temperature drops of 2-3 degrees Celsius.

Another stronger (invisible) cooling process is also developing below the ocean surface. The image below shows the latest subsurface temperature anomaly compared to early January, just as in the previous image. You can see an obvious cooling trend, with a strong cold pool now rising to the surface.
(more)

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-la-nina-watch-issued-seasonal-weather-impact-forecast-winter-united-states-canada-fa/

[Sublime_Rime]

It looks like the ENSO3.4 has been plateauing for some time now. I'm waiting with anticipation for the spring predictability barrier to pass

[gerontocrat]

The Aussie Bureau of Meterology (BOM) latest ENSO forecast issued 5 March

El Nino steadily in decline.
Maybe ENSO Neutral in April, definitely in May

The NOAA CPC ENSO update come out on 14 March.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Neutral ENSO likely during autumn (N.B. Southern hemisphere Autumn)
ENSO Outlook
El Niño persists, although a steady weakening trend is evident in its oceanic indicators. Climate models indicate sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific are expected to continue declining and are forecast to return to ENSO-neutral in the southern hemisphere autumn 2024.

Atmospheric indicators are mixed but are consistent with a steadily weakening El Niño. Cloudiness near the equatorial Date Line has decreased over the last fortnight, returning to the climatological average.  The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is currently less than -7.0, characteristic of an El Niño state, but indicative of ENSO-neutral conditions over the 60- and 90-day periods. Temporary fluctuations of ENSO atmospheric indicators are common during summer and are not an indication of El Niño strength.

International climate models suggest the central tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to cool in the coming months, with four out of seven climate models indicating the central Pacific is likely to return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) levels by the end of April (i.e., neither El Niño nor La Niña), and all models indicating neutral in May. ENSO predictions made in autumn tend to have lower accuracy than predictions made at other times of the year. This means that current forecasts of the ENSO state beyond May should be used with caution.

Based on the historical record from 1900, around 50% of El Niño events have been followed by an ENSO-neutral year, and 40 to 50% have been followed by La Niña. However, global oceans have warmed significantly over the past 50 years. The oceans have been the warmest on record globally between April 2023 and January 2024. These changes may impact future predictions of ENSO events, if based solely on historical climate variability.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. IOD events are typically unable to form between December and April. This is because the monsoon trough shifts south over the tropical Indian Ocean changing wind patterns and preventing the IOD pattern from forming.

The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is currently neutral, as of 3 March. Forecasts indicate SAM will remain neutral over the coming fortnight.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in the eastern Indian Ocean. The MJO is forecast to move into the Maritime Continent in the coming days and progress eastwards towards the Western Pacific over the coming fortnight. When the MJO is in the eastern Indian Ocean, increased cloudiness tends to occur over the eastern Indian Ocean and western parts of South East Asia. As the MJO shifts into the Maritime Continent, increased cloudiness tends to occur over parts of the far north of Australia and the islands of South East Asia, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea.

The annual global mean temperature for the 12 months from February 2023 to January 2024 was the highest on record, with Copernicus reporting that it was 1.52 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. However, this does not mean that the 1.5 °C target referred to in the Paris Agreement has been exceeded as the magnitude of global warming is assessed using multi-year averages, and this is only one 12-month period.

Australia's climate has warmed by 1.50 ± 0.23 °C between 1910 and 2023, leading to an increase in the frequency of extreme heat events. In recent decades, there has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high intensity, short duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia during the wet season. April to October rainfall has declined across southern Australia in recent decades, due to a combination of long-term natural variability and changes in atmospheric circulation caused by an increase in greenhouse gas concentrations.

[morganism]

Michael Steinberg  @MichaelWX18  Mar 7

Why hello there, cold pool!

https://nitter.poast.org/MichaelWX18/status/1765807838512001539#m

[gerontocrat]

Goodbye El Nino in 2 months?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
14 March 2024
 
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch

 
Synopsis:  A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance).

During February 2024, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to weaken across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. In the last week, below-average SSTs emerged in a small region of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (~100°W; [Fig. 1]). The weekly Niño indices weakened but remained positive, with the latest value in Niño-3.4 standing at 1.4°C [Fig. 2]. Area-averaged subsurface temperature anomalies were slightly negative [Fig. 3], reflecting the consequences of an upwelling Kelvin wave and associated below-average temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 4]. Low-level winds were near average over most of the equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were easterly over the east-central Pacific. Convection was enhanced near the Date Line and was suppressed near Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a weakening El Niño.

The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during summer 2024 [Fig. 6]. While different types of models suggest La Niña will develop, the forecast team favors the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate for forecasts made during this time of year. Even though forecasts made through the spring season tend to be less reliable, there is a historical tendency for La Niña to follow strong El Niño events. In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (83% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (62% chance; [Fig. 7]).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 11 April 2024.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[Rodius]

Great.. another La Nina event straight after... more floods and fuel for the fires which weren't burnt this summer (somehow, the fire season was quiet in Australia this year....)

[gerontocrat]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
11 April 2024
 
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory / La Niña Watch

Synopsis:  A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance).

During March 2024, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continued to weaken across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. SST anomalies were coolest in the far eastern Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1], with the latest weekly Niño-1+2 value at -0.1°C [Fig. 2]. Weekly SST index values in the other Niño regions were between +0.9°C and +1.2°C. Below-average subsurface temperatures strengthened (area-averaged index in [Fig. 3]), reflecting the expansion of negative subsurface anomalies associated with an upwelling Kelvin wave [Fig. 4]. Low-level wind anomalies were easterly over the west-central equatorial Pacific, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly near average. Equatorial convection was slightly suppressed around the Date Line and was near average around Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected the continued weakening of El Niño.

The most recent IRI plume indicates a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during late summer 2024 [Fig. 6]. The forecast team continues to favor the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate than statistical models during this time of year. La Niña tends to follow strong El Niño events, which also provides added confidence in the model guidance favoring La Niña. In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance; [Fig. 7]).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. A probabilistic strength forecast is available here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 9 May 2024.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

 
Climate Prediction Center
5830 University Research Court
College Park, Maryland 20740

[kassy]

Climate change: El Niño ends with uncertainty over cooler future

The powerful El Niño weather event which along with climate change has helped push global temperatures to new highs, has ended, say scientists.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology says the Pacific Ocean has "cooled substantially" in the past week.

This naturally occurring episode that began last June brought warmer waters to the surface of the Pacific, adding extra heat to the atmosphere.

But what happens next is uncertain, say researchers.

...

Scientists say that the months after the end of El Niño will give a strong indication as to whether the recent high temperatures are due to accelerated climate change or not.

...

US researchers recently said there was 60% chance of a La Niña developing between June-August, and an 85% chance of this happening by Autumn.

But the Australian Bureau say such statements such be treated with caution. They expect neutral conditions to last until at least July.

They point to the current hot state of the global oceans which they believe is affecting ENSO.

"As the current global ocean conditions have not been observed before, inferences as to how ENSO may develop in 2024 that are based on past events may not be reliable," they said in a statement.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68826152

Since a number of ocean warming events predated the EN phase they should persist. We shall see.