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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 357432 times)

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #100 on: January 28, 2020, 01:18:03 AM »
US Upgrades Travel Advice to China
https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/28/coronavirus-first-death-in-beijing-as-us-issues-new-china-travel-warning-live-updates

The US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention has upgraded its warning warning for novel coronavirus to Level 3, which is to avoid all non-essential travel. It warns of person-to-person transmission and that “older adults and people with underlying health conditions may be at increased risk for severe disease”. The advice also notes that there is “limited access to adequate medical care in affected areas” in China.

Canada has also upgraded its travel advice for China, asking its citizens to avoid all travel to Hubei province, where the virus outbreak began. It says its citizens should “exercise a high degree of caution” in China due to “the risk of arbitrary enforcement of local laws”.

---------------------------------

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047836/china-coronavirus-us-health-officials-say-risk-public-remains

Officials from the top US public health agency said on Monday that 110 people around the country with a fever and respiratory illness have been placed under observation to determine if they have been infected with the China coronavirus.

Officials from the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said the “persons under investigation” (PUIs) came from 26 states and had all either travelled to the epicentre of the outbreak, Wuhan, or had come into contact with confirmed infected patients.

The number “will only increase”, Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Centre for Immunisation and Respiratory Diseases, said in an agency briefing.

Centres for Disease Control and Prevention does not believe virus has mutated, and says the risk to the US public remains low

‘At this time in the US, this virus is not spreading in the community,’ an official says
« Last Edit: January 28, 2020, 01:28:48 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

harpy

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #101 on: January 28, 2020, 01:47:36 AM »
This may sound like a stupid question.  Do we know what fraction of humans exposed to the Coronavirus will actually become infected and/or become sick?

That is, if someone is exposed to the Coronavirus, what% chance do they have of becoming infected?

Thanks.

crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #102 on: January 28, 2020, 01:52:58 AM »
latest number are not quite so frightening

Mainland China new confirmed cases fallen from 1063 to 758 to 126. Hope that isn't running out of ability to test.

Elsewhere new confirmed cases gone from 15 to 17 now down to 7. That won't be due to ability to test running out.

Far too early to be conclusive but perhaps some hope that awareness and control measures are working?


Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #103 on: January 28, 2020, 02:05:46 AM »
This may sound like a stupid question.  Do we know what fraction of humans exposed to the Coronavirus will actually become infected and/or become sick?

That is, if someone is exposed to the Coronavirus, what% chance do they have of becoming infected?

Thanks.

The current best estimate is 85%. There is so far limited data to clarify that.

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #104 on: January 28, 2020, 02:08:38 AM »
latest number are not quite so frightening

Mainland China new confirmed cases fallen from 1063 to 758 to 126. Hope that isn't running out of ability to test.

Elsewhere new confirmed cases gone from 15 to 17 now down to 7. That won't be due to ability to test running out.

Far too early to be conclusive but perhaps some hope that awareness and control measures are working?

If those numbers faithfully represent reality, then it suggests that China’s grand gamble with quarantine may be working.

crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #105 on: January 28, 2020, 02:15:46 AM »
This may sound like a stupid question.  Do we know what fraction of humans exposed to the Coronavirus will actually become infected and/or become sick?

That is, if someone is exposed to the Coronavirus, what% chance do they have of becoming infected?

Thanks.

May depend on amount of exposure? This seems more like anecdotal level of data but not sure we will get a better idea for a while.

Quote
From Jan 10, 2020, we enrolled a family of six patients who travelled to Wuhan from Shenzhen between Dec 29, 2019 and Jan 4, 2020. Of six family members who travelled to Wuhan, five were identified as infected with the novel coronavirus. Additionally, one family member, who did not travel to Wuhan, became infected with the virus after several days of contact with four of the family members. None of the family members had contacts with Wuhan markets or animals, although two had visited a Wuhan hospital.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30154-9/fulltext

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #106 on: January 28, 2020, 02:46:23 AM »
Yesterday the toll was 82, so today’s figures of 106 is an increase of 23%. Infections are up from 2,887 to 4,193, an increase of 31%.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #107 on: January 28, 2020, 03:41:42 AM »
Quarantine and shutting down business for a bit is almost guaranteed to work at lowering the rate of transmission. If the possible contacts are decreased the possible infections are decreased. Another thing they can try is requiring nose and mouth protection for anyone interacting with others.

Surgical masks would do nicely but any barrier placed over mouth and nose will significantly lower the chances of droplets leaving or getting into the mouth and nose. This guarantees another drop in the rate of infection.

If the suppression of infection rates is sustained for long enough the threat could go dormant for quite some time.

However, time and proper education of the populace is essential.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #108 on: January 28, 2020, 03:48:19 AM »
Yesterday the toll was 82, so today’s figures of 106 is an increase of 23%. Infections are up from 2,887 to 4,193, an increase of 31%.

So ... not reflective of reality then.  To be expected. Lunar new year holiday and weekend may be partly to blame. Reporting delays. The pademic continues.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #109 on: January 28, 2020, 03:52:57 AM »
China's Heath Commission Releases New Guidance on Virus

China’s National Health Commission issued guidance on treating the coronavirus last night (27 January).

It says “respiratory droplet transmission is the main route of transmission”, but it can also be transmitted through contact.

It says “based on current epidemiological investigations, the incubation period is generally 3-7 days, with the longest no more than 14 days”.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #110 on: January 28, 2020, 03:53:52 AM »
« Last Edit: January 28, 2020, 04:01:21 AM by KiwiGriff »
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #111 on: January 28, 2020, 03:57:04 AM »
Vox, 4193 is from the gis site ,
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 Sam, Do you propose numbers are higher? 
 If shelter in place is recommended how do we know the number infected ? If you are sick enough to go to the hospital in Wuhan you represent the 4193 number I assume.

Yes Kiwi now 4474 on the gis site also.

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #112 on: January 28, 2020, 04:15:01 AM »
SARS had 8000 people infected in 2 years. No wonder the oil price is going down.

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #113 on: January 28, 2020, 05:24:31 AM »
Vox, 4193 is from the gis site ,
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 Sam, Do you propose numbers are higher? 
 If shelter in place is recommended how do we know the number infected ? If you are sick enough to go to the hospital in Wuhan you represent the 4193 number I assume.

Yes Kiwi now 4474 on the gis site also.

I wish I knew Bruce. I have the same access to information all of you have.

One seemingly good reference from the first public modeling of the spread concluded that the confirmed disease numbers represent 5.1% of the total infected population. If that is right it suggests that there are now 90,000 infected.

This is plausible. Looking at the data over this past week, the totals of those confirmed infected and those who died suggested that the disease was spreading at a rate of 1.31 to 1.42 fold each day (my naive estimates). The report also suggested an average 6.4 day incubation period. That has not much changed. The range has expanded to 2-14 days. The same report suggested an R0 of about 4.

A day to day growth of 1.31 fold with a 6.4 day incubation period would result in an R0 estimate of about 5.6. That's not far off. A 1.31 fold daily increase in the total infected combined with a 5 day average incubation period would result in an R0 estimate of about 3.9. Etc...

What each of these suggest is that the uncounted infected pool is about 5 times the confirmed count, rather than the 19.6 fold that a 5.1% counting efficiency might suggest. But, if we count the suspect cases, we are only off by a factor of 2.

With exponential problems like this, combined with uncertain estimates of the real averages and distributions, and with unknown actual infection levels compared to confirmed counts, this is all about what we can expect.

One of the other confusion factors is the severity of infection and symptoms versus health, age, gender and other factors. This disease seems to (as expected) principally effect those over ~age 55 and male (70%). If young women in particular are less symptomatic, they may be dramatically under counted, and, they may also contribute to a greater degree to silent disease spread.

Then again, those seemingly important parameters may be to greater or lesser degrees be societal artifacts.

My wild ass guess is that the Chinese have done a great job in counting, that they are at or above maximum capacity in Wuhan, and that the societal and disease factors combined with the math problems of dealing with a rapidly and exponentially increasing disease spread put the real infected population at between 10 and 20 times the confirmed count but that is purely a wild ass guess. The professionals can do much better using modeling to try to estimate all of the various parameters involved. If they are above capacity in Wuhan as the center of the outbreak, then the counts may become much less representative of reality. On the other hand, the near cessation of movement in Wuhan should independently have greatly reduced the R0. But it doesn't appear to have done so.

I think the point I would emphasize is that whatever the reality is that these seemingly large ratios are inherent to the large replication factors and incubation period. We should expect them to be as they are. We should NOT take comfort in the seemingly small numbers of those confirmed infected or killed. And we should NOT compare these to seasonal flu or other diseases. Doing so will be misleading and get us in trouble.

I would also suggest that if there is (as there appears to be) a several day to week long period where people are infected and can transmit the disease, that controlling the outbreak will be extremely difficult. It will most likely cause reasonable professionals and politicians to consistently underestimate the spread of the disease and the severity of the outbreak. It is also likely to cause simple screening such as temperature monitoring at points of entry to be largely ineffective. And that may cause false confidence in the effectiveness of control efforts.

The hazard of that is the potential for the disease to spread globally and to result ultimately in over 100 million dead, and possibly over half a billion. Those are horrifying possibilities.

Combine too the difficulty and impacts on privacy, liberties, ... of taking actions that will stop such a rapidly expanding plague. Then compound that with the huge array of financial and market impacts on our now hugely interconnected world.

Conversely, consider the global tragedy and impacts of sickening most of the people on Earth and killing several hundred million if we act too slowly and wrongly.

Either way the consequences look to be enormous both for those alive today, and for everyone everywhere as we move into a radically different future. If these disease is one of the period global pandemics that wipe out up to 10% or more of the population in a matter of a few months, it is inevitable that that will create truly enormous societal impacts. And these are unlikely to be transient impacts. If control fails, this will be a turning point, just as the Black Death and other plagues were. And we need only look to them to get some idea of the scope, scale and severity of the societal impacts to come.

Also, if this plague progresses globally and unchecked, with the current R0 and incubation periods, it will likely all play out by about May. That is a nearly unimaginable scale of impact over an incredibly short period.

Most of the decision makers experience is based on completely different conditions. This is likely to lead them to fail to act either quickly or decisively enough. China has already done far more far faster than could ever have been expected. And it does not appear to have  been nearly enough. In western societies, the structure of the societies will not allow anything close to their response. Perhaps the best that can be hoped for is for individual action and response to make the difference. History of human behavior does not make that a promising route.

Sam
« Last Edit: January 28, 2020, 10:21:05 AM by Sam »

be cause

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #114 on: January 28, 2020, 05:47:26 AM »
the most worrying number I heard was on bbc news .. 400 critically ill .. a sizeable proportion of those infected before yesterday . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
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vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #115 on: January 28, 2020, 06:19:12 AM »
The National Health Commission had issued new figures for deaths and infections, including 4,515 confirmed cases of the virus. State media is reporting that 976 - or just over 20% of cases – are patients in a critical condition. It also says there are 6,973 suspected cases in China.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #116 on: January 28, 2020, 06:30:35 AM »
Something to consider.

If the daily increase in cases remains a factor of 1.3 and the incubation period is a week, then as a very crude estimate, the number of critical cases requiring treatment will increase by a factor of 6.27 each week.

If Wuhan is already at capacity, even adding 1,000 beds, they will be far over capacity to deal with the patients. A week later they will be able to deal with only a small fraction of the need. Not good. It is hard to imagine the systems not failing at that point.

Sam

El Cid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #117 on: January 28, 2020, 08:15:17 AM »
I talked to virologists off the record. They seem totally complacent: "The Chinese got this under control...you are more likely to die in the common flu...80 dead is nothing out of 1,5 billion, etc".
They truly seem unworried, yet when I look at the numbers I can not understand how that is possibble. I don't see this being contained anyway, not with  one week incubation period. The epidemic is likely already spreading in the US and Europe if you consider that. Where am I wrong? Can they be right?

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #118 on: January 28, 2020, 08:41:21 AM »
El Cid,

In my opinion, you are not wrong. They are. Their complacency is born of dealing with less virulent, less fatal organisms, and a long chain of luck.

They seem incapable of understanding how an exponential problem can get away from them.  On the other hand, last years simulation with Bill Gates of a Corona virus pandemic that resulted in 100 million deaths foreshadows this real world event. The simulation caused so many deaths precisely because of human failures exactly like this.

TerryM

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #119 on: January 28, 2020, 09:06:37 AM »
From a personal vantagepoint.


The 1st Canadian patient, now in isolation in Toronto, apparently spent 9 hours at the ER of St. Joseph's Hospital in Hamilton Ont. (per Reddit)


St. Joseph's is ~40 KM from my building and is the hospital where my cancer problems are treated. The hospital is ~15 blocks from the home where I'd have had dinner last Saturday, if not for my paranoia.


No spread of infection in evidence from that patient, (other than his wife who is Canada's 2nd confirmed case), but I somehow feel vindicated for opting out of the dinner party.


Terry

blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #120 on: January 28, 2020, 09:15:15 AM »
Still thinking this whole thing is more fearmongering than a serious problem.

OK, i officially distance myself from my statement there.

Quote
I hope i'm right on that...

I wasn't.

TerryM

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #121 on: January 28, 2020, 09:20:53 AM »

A snapshot comparing SARS & Coronavirus





Terry

blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #122 on: January 28, 2020, 09:34:06 AM »
... and SARS was without the extreme measures to contain the virus we see now.

wdmn

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #123 on: January 28, 2020, 09:36:53 AM »
Another visualization. This one courtesy of Robert Rohde:

https://twitter.com/RARohde/status/1222073283002208257

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #124 on: January 28, 2020, 10:03:23 AM »
The Coronavirus Is Now An Actual Pandemic
https://www.peakprosperity.com/the-conoravirus-is-now-an-actual-pandemic/
Quote
While you wouldn’t know it by listening to the major media outlets, the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus continues to get worse. As does our understanding of its potential threat to the public health.

At this point, we have to be honest with ourselves: We are dealing with a true pandemic at this point



Chris’ message is direct: we’re passed the point when this could have been contained and ‘blown over’ in a short period of time.

This is going to get worse. Quite possibly a *lot* worse.

It’s time to prepare folks.

Be sure to stay up-to-date on Peak Prosperity’s ongoing full coverage of the coronavirus outbreak by visiting here.
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oren

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #125 on: January 28, 2020, 10:06:14 AM »
- But there is an interesting epidemiological infographic:
- with a timeline of median symptom onset
Looking at the analysis of the family that visited Wuhan, it appears that (at least in their case) onset of symptoms was after about 3 days from exposure to infected people. So perhaps the week-long incubation period is not the typical case. (Hopefully).

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #126 on: January 28, 2020, 10:47:45 AM »
Hundreds of Virus Carrying Planes Headed for US, London, Paris, Vancouver
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/hundreds-of-virus-carrying-planes-headed-for-us-london-paris-vancouver-EjNxIUbMhk-CUN3PWJcLNA
Quote
How easy is it to escape Wuhan?

You can still catch a flight from Wuhan to Anchorage, Tokyo, Seoul, Bangkok, Singapore, Taipei and countless cities in China including Beijing and Shanghai.

There are 8 pages of flights out of Wuhan today. That's about 200 flights. Most of the flights are within China, but that hardly stops containment.
In the 00:00-06:00 slot one flight left for Anchorage. Another left for Bangkok, Thailand and another went to Tokyo.
In the 06:00-12:00 slot, two planes left for Tokyo and three to Hong Kong.
In the 12:00-18:00 slot, three planes left for Seoul, South Korea and two went to Taipei, Taiwan.
In the 18:00-00:00 slot, one plane went to Bangkok , three went to Taipei, three went to Hong Kong,
Wuhan Departures Tomorrow

Tomorrow, there are four flights from Wuhan to Singapore, three to Taipei, two to Bangkok, three to Tokyo, three to Paris, and six to Hong Kong, three to San Francisco,

The rest headed for other parts of China including Beijing. Then where?​ Here are international possibilities from Beijing.

This article was posted 14 hours ago as of now, so it is fairly current.
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silkman

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #127 on: January 28, 2020, 10:49:25 AM »
Nature is running an open source, regularly updated summary of the story that's covering the science in a way that is readily understandable to non-scientists. Helpful.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=1348bf2cbd-briefing-dy-20200127&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-1348bf2cbd-44120569

be cause

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #128 on: January 28, 2020, 11:47:28 AM »
I wonder how long the number of posts on this thread can keep ahead of the numbers of dead ?

At this stage in the SARS outbreak I was telling everyone not to worry and that it would never get to N.I.
I am giving very different advice this time . I find myself glad to be living alone in the sticks on an island off an island . ( although that didn't help me in 665AD ! ) . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #129 on: January 28, 2020, 11:48:13 AM »
Wuhan Coronavirus Death Toll Rises to 106 in China as CDC Confirms 5 Cases in U.S.
https://time.com/5772481/china-coronavirus-latest/
BY SANYA MANSOOR UPDATED: JANUARY 28, 2020 4:59 AM ET | ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED: JANUARY 27, 2020
Quote
But experts are skeptical that official numbers capture the full extent of the outbreak. Researchers in Hong Kong have warned that the actual number of people infected in Wuhan could already be more than 30 times higher than the official tally.

BTW, I read somewhere (should have posted it here) that a lot of rural migrant workers in Wuhan are commuting in and out of the city on foot, spreading the virus to outside regions that don't have medical infrastructure of the cities. Is that true?
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be cause

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #130 on: January 28, 2020, 11:54:18 AM »
^^ it scarcely matters .. nowhere has the intensive care facilities to maintain the levels of care needed beyond the initial few days of infection .
the UK starts this year without any spare capacity ..even  bussing children all over the country trying to find a single bed available . b.c.
 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #131 on: January 28, 2020, 12:13:05 PM »
latest number are not quite so frightening

Mainland China new confirmed cases fallen from 1063 to 758 to 126. Hope that isn't running out of ability to test.

Elsewhere new confirmed cases gone from 15 to 17 now down to 7. That won't be due to ability to test running out.

Far too early to be conclusive but perhaps some hope that awareness and control measures are working?

Sorry, I believed the numbers had been updated by the time I posted that.

Last 4 days mainland China now showing 916 1979 2737 4409 so increases of 1063 758 1672
Elsewhere 25 40 57 65 so increases of 15 17 and 8

oren

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #132 on: January 28, 2020, 12:50:55 PM »
- But there is an interesting epidemiological infographic:
- with a timeline of median symptom onset
Looking at the analysis of the family that visited Wuhan, it appears that (at least in their case) onset of symptoms was after about 3 days from exposure to infected people. So perhaps the week-long incubation period is not the typical case. (Hopefully).
Re-looking at it, I realized P6 (a child) did not show any symptoms at all until diagnosed in the hospital. This is the scary one.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #133 on: January 28, 2020, 12:55:52 PM »
^^ it scarcely matters .. nowhere has the intensive care facilities to maintain the levels of care needed beyond the initial few days of infection .
the UK starts this year without any spare capacity ..even  bussing children all over the country trying to find a single bed available . b.c.
 
Also, people sick and dying in the boondocks are not going to get the procedure to be “officially” counted in the statistics.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #134 on: January 28, 2020, 01:10:12 PM »
Coronavirus: first European human-to-human transmission confirmed in Germany
https://www.brusselstimes.com/all-news/belgium-all-news/health/92182/coronavirus-first-european-human-to-human-contamination-reported-in-germany-bavaria-china-january/
Quote
For the time being no further cases have been reported, but authorities are checking on a total of 40 people who have been in contact with the two infected company employees, either within the company or within the family of the German patient.

Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New Coronavirus
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/experts-warn-of-possible-sustained-global-spread-of-new-coronavirus/
Quote
If the virus cannot be contained, it could start regularly circulating in the population like other common respiratory viruses
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vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #135 on: January 28, 2020, 01:25:20 PM »
Just some numbers ...

The US has about 924,000 hospital beds total (counting metal health and rehab). Of these, acute care hospitals had a total of 540,668 staffed beds and 94,837 ICU beds (14.3% ICU beds/total beds)  Current occupancy 70-90%
https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals

Europe has about the same.

The UK has 127,000 total including mental health and rehab.

The number of beds in general and acute hospitals in the UK has fallen from 110,568 in April-June 2010 to 100,406 in the same period this year (2019). Current occupancy is already 85-95% - without a pandemic.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/nov/25/hospital-beds-at-record-low-in-england-as-nhs-struggles-with-demand

----------------

What this means is that there is very little surge capacity. Even if you have a vacant bed, there are a limited number of ventilators for critical patients. And there is a limited number of trained staff.

There will still be patients with strokes and heart attacks.

----------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #136 on: January 28, 2020, 01:33:18 PM »
According to Google News, the New York Times has a number of articles on the epidemic today with scary headlines.
Can someone with a subscription (I can't afford it) check them out and give a pertinent quote?
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dnem

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #137 on: January 28, 2020, 01:38:22 PM »
Jan. 28, 2020, 7:31 a.m. ET6 minutes ago
6 minutes ago
Coronavirus Live Updates: Hong Kong Restricts Travel From Mainland China as Infections Exceed 4,500   
The number of known cases of the new virus increased by nearly 60 percent overnight. A shortage of test kits has led experts to warn that the real number may be higher.

By The New York Times
RIGHT NOWHong Kong will severely limit travel from mainland China, suspending high-speed rail service and cutting flights by half. 

Death toll exceeds 100 as number of infections skyrockets.

The outbreak of a mysterious new virus is rapidly spreading, the Chinese authorities said on Tuesday, as the official account of known cases jumped nearly 60 percent overnight and the death toll exceeded 100 for the first time.

◆ China said on Tuesday that 106 people had died from the coronavirus that is believed to have originated in the central city of Wuhan and is spreading across the country. The previous death toll, on Monday, was 81.

◆ The number of confirmed cases increased from 2,835 on Monday to 4,515 on Tuesday, according to the National Health Commission. The youngest confirmed case is a 9-month-old girl in Beijing.

◆ Most of the cases have been confirmed in the central Chinese province of Hubei, the epicenter of the outbreak, where several cities, including Wuhan, have been placed under what amounts to a lockdown. Of the total cases, 2,714 are in Hubei.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #138 on: January 28, 2020, 01:46:50 PM »
Hong Kong medical workers draw fortune sticks to decide who works in coronavirus quarantine wards
https://www.scmp.com/topics/china-coronavirus-outbreak

Doctor says he and his colleagues have been put under intense pressure with the emergence of the new virus

The Hospital Authority has stressed the situation is under control but frontline medical workers paint a different picture

... The supply of protective gear and masks was a concern.

A nurse in a Kowloon hospital said she saw a colleague being told off for wearing an N95 mask, which offers more protection than a normal version.

“[She was told] if you wear them now, it will stoke fear among people who come to visit their relatives,” the nurse said.

The masks had also been locked up, she claimed, adding that a clerical worker said they had been rationed. “Why are they rationed, and not used when necessary?” she said.

The authority has said there are enough stocks of masks in public hospitals for at least three months. (... This is a lie)

------------------

Japan health minister Katsunobu Kato said a tour bus driver in Japan who drove tourists from Wuhan twice a month and who had not visited Wuhan has contracted the new coronavirus.

If confirmed, it is the first case of human to human transmission of the new coronavirus to happen in Japan.

---------------------

The Global Times is reporting that the Chinese city of Tianjin, in northern China, is to launch a “wartime mechanism”, putting one of its general hospitals and 500 medical teams in the city under military management.] It’s the first Chinese city to take the step, according to the Global Times.

Tianjin is about 120km south-east of Beijing. Its population is around 15 million people.
https://t.co/uPGXfDpjmb

---------------------------

China's National Health Commission says 6,000 medical staff sent to Hubei epicentre from around the country but shortage of supplies slowing their deployment.

--------------------------

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has announced that screening for the virus will be expanded to 20 U.S. airports, up from five airports that were doing testing earlier. The 20 U.S. airports now doing thermal screening receive roughly 90 percent of all inbound flights from China, according to CNN.

-----------------

Tip for the Day: There is only one way to wear a surgical mask correctly, and that is with the coloured side facing outside.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2020, 01:58:08 PM by vox_mundi »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #139 on: January 28, 2020, 01:53:40 PM »
I believe that a member of my Toastmasters Club came from Wuhan, and still has family living there.
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crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #140 on: January 28, 2020, 03:11:29 PM »
Vox, 4193 is from the gis site ,
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
 Sam, Do you propose numbers are higher? 
 If shelter in place is recommended how do we know the number infected ? If you are sick enough to go to the hospital in Wuhan you represent the 4193 number I assume.

Yes Kiwi now 4474 on the gis site also.

Here is something quoted from a couple of days ago:
Quote
Ferguson, whose team have been modelling the disease for the World Health Organization, said they estimated the virus had a reproductive rate of 2.5-3, meaning that each person infected would potentially transmit it to up to three others.

“My best guess now is perhaps 100,000 cases right now,” he said, although it could be between 30,000 and 200,000. “Almost certainly many tens of thousands of people are infected.”

so large range of uncertainty.

> If you are sick enough to go to the hospital in Wuhan you represent the 4193 number I assume.

I would suggest instead that:

If you are sick enough to go to hospital, with suitable symptoms to be tested, and you are tested, and the result has come back positive then you will be one of the confirmed cases.

If you are sick enough to go to hospital, with suitable symptoms to be tested, and you are tested but not yet had result then you will probably be one of the suspected cases. Recent suspected cases figure around 7000 per https://www.cnet.com/how-to/coronavirus-deaths-climb-over-100-hong-kong-limits-travel-everything-we-know/#newcorona


vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #141 on: January 28, 2020, 03:42:59 PM »
https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/28/coronavirus-first-death-in-beijing-as-us-issues-new-china-travel-warning-live-updates

... The coronavirus outbreak could last several months and its course is unpredictable, with many thousands more people likely to have been affected than official figures suggest, according to Dr Jennifer Rohn, a specialist in cell biology at University College London.

She said it was difficult to know how long the outbreak would last, adding: “It is hard to predict but, certainly, the cat is out of the bag.

“We don’t know the full picture – they are running very short on diagnostic kits in China – and the truth is we don’t know where all the people are who are infected.”

It was likely far more thousands of people are infected than the cases confirmed in China
, she said.

Also, note the glacial pace of testing in the UK and US ... 10-20 test results a day.

--------------------------

The academic pubilsher Wiley has compiled 54 research articles relating to the coronavirus, listed them on a single page, and has made them free to read for the next few months, as the world battles to contain the outbreak.

https://secure.wiley.com/Coronavirus2020

... These important pieces of literature will remain free until April 2020, with the window of time extended as needed. Newly published articles related to coronavirus will immediately be free to access during this time period, and will be posted to the coronavirus research page.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #142 on: January 28, 2020, 04:34:49 PM »
Experts Warn of Possible Sustained Global Spread of New Coronavirus
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/experts-warn-of-possible-sustained-global-spread-of-new-coronavirus/
Quote
If the virus cannot be contained, it could start regularly circulating in the population like other common respiratory viruses

Do not know anything about how viruses spread but, if true, this could be a problem.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #143 on: January 28, 2020, 04:53:53 PM »
Scenario planning,
What if you stayed in a hotel by Disneyland, frequented with Chinese tourists . Four days later
Returned home, got dry cough, mild temperature, then 102
OK it’s time to call a doctor but you should tell the whole story first I would think, before you go.
 Haven’t conditions changed even in countries with very few cases?

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #144 on: January 28, 2020, 05:01:43 PM »
Confusion and Lost Time: How Testing Woes Slowed China's Coronavirus Response
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-testing-insight/confusion-and-lost-time-how-testing-woes-slowed-chinas-coronavirus-response-idUSKBN1ZQ21K

Yang Zhongyi was still waiting on Monday for a coronavirus test in the Chinese city of Wuhan two weeks after she started to show signs of a fever, even though doctors privately told her family that she almost certainly has been infected, her son Zhang Changchun told Reuters.

... Yang has been unable to gain full-time admission to a hospital, her son said. She has been put on drips in unquarantined areas at four separate hospitals in the city to treat her deteriorating lungs, he said, while he is doing what he can to get her tested or admitted full-time.

---------------------

... Testing kits for the disease were not distributed to some of Wuhan’s hospitals until about Jan. 20, an official at the Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention (Hubei CDC) told Reuters. Before then, samples had to be sent to a laboratory in Beijing for testing, a process that took three to five days to get results, according to Wuhan health authorities.

During that gap, hospitals in the city reduced the number of people under medical observation from 739 to just 82, according to data compiled by Reuters from Wuhan health authorities, and no new cases were reported inside China.

Despite the lack of reliable data and testing capacity in Wuhan, Chinese authorities assured citizens in the days after the virus had been identified that it was not widely transmissible. In previous weeks, it had censored negative online commentary about the situation, and arrested eight people it accused of being “rumor spreaders.”

... The week in which no new virus cases were reported in Hubei coincided with preparations for the Lunar New Year and sessions of the province’s National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference.



... Once a virus has been identified, “You need to make sure you have all the reagent (a substance used in chemical analysis) samples and you’ve got it all pushed out to where you want to do testing,” said Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, who focuses on emerging infectious disease and pandemic preparedness.

Although information from the region is scarce, Adalja suggested China has had problems with this stage of tackling the outbreak. “We’re already hearing that there are shortages of medical professionals there, that there are shortages of test kits and medicines,” he said.


Seven of the largest hospitals in Wuhan are now equipped with testing kits for the virus, which in theory deliver results within a day, the Hubei CDC official said.

But four people told Reuters they were refused tests because the process involved a complex reporting system including hospital, district and city health authorities and disease control officials.

To qualify for the test, patients need to meet certain criteria, such as having symptoms of fever and pneumonia, and a surge in patients means it is “impossible to conduct the test right away,” an official at the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention told Reuters.

Quote
... Making matters worse, three Chinese medical companies have said that they do not have the capacity to make enough test kits for the new coronavirus, according to local news media reports.

... Wuhan health authorities have a limit on tests, chiefly because of the shortage of testing kits, and are screening lists of patients before deciding who gets a test, which takes several hours, one hospital worker told Reuters.

“Some severely ill patients were left out from the final list for testing because they know they wouldn’t be able to be treated,” the worker told Reuters. “The actual deaths were higher.”


Three hospital and local government workers, who have been briefed on how doctors are handling tests and confirming cases, told Reuters that official numbers of infections and deaths do not reflect the actual toll.

-----------------------

Sales of Face Masks on the Rise in Ottawa Amid Coronavirus Outbreak
https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/news/sales-of-face-masks-on-the-rise-in-ottawa-amid-coronavirus-outbreak-1.4784181

... CTV News went to a Home Depot in Gloucestor and found it was sold out of face masks.

Managers tell CTV that customers were buying them in bulk to send to family in China, where there have been reported shortages.


Over at Preston Hardware, owner Johnny Giannetti says as soon as news broke of the virus reaching North America, they saw a surge in mask sales.

Giannetti says even his suppliers are sending out memos urging their clients to order quickly, and notifying them of possible delays in shipment.

“A couple e-mails were sent to me that if you’re running low, jump in now and order,” said Giannetti.

“The last time we saw this was the SARS incidents, that was hard to get product and an increase in demand for sure.”
« Last Edit: January 28, 2020, 08:14:36 PM by vox_mundi »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #145 on: January 28, 2020, 05:12:26 PM »
‘What if We All Get Sick?’: Coronavirus Strains China’s Health System
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/27/world/asia/27china-coronavirus-health.html

... China does not have a functioning primary care system, so most people flock to hospitals. On an ordinary day, doctors are frustrated and exhausted as they see as many as 200 patients.

Those weaknesses are most pronounced in the poorer areas of China — like Wuhan, the epicenter of the coronavirus. Panicked residents of the city are heading to the hospitals if they have any sign of a cold or cough. Videos circulating on Chinese social media show doctors straining to handle the enormous workload and hospital corridors loaded with patients, some of whom appear to be dead.

To fight the expanding outbreak, the country is relying on a medical system that is overburdened even in normal times.

Chinese hospitals in smaller cities are not fully prepared to deal with a major outbreak like the current virus. Wuhan hospitals have posted messages online urgently appealing for medical equipment. The situation is even more desperate in poorer, rural areas nearby.

Last week, eight hospitals in Hubei Province — where Wuhan is situated and where most of the cases have appeared — put out a call for N95 masks, goggles, surgical masks and surgical gowns. In the absence of proper equipment, some medical workers have resorted to cutting plastic folders to jury-rig goggles.

Quote
... Making matters worse, three Chinese medical companies have said that they do not have the capacity to make enough test kits for the new coronavirus, according to local news media reports.

...With no proven drugs to treat the new virus, the health authorities have told doctors to prescribe a combination of treatments — anti-viral H.I.V. drugs as well as traditional Chinese medicine — to patients. Some of the medicines being prescribed are a mixture of ingredients like buffalo horn, jasmine and honeysuckle as well as anti-viral H.I.V. drugs like Lopinavir and Ritonavir.

... “There has never been a good antiviral agent, so that means that people would try things that have some effect,” said Dominic Dwyer, a medical virologist at the University of Sydney. “But there’s no evidence of significant benefits with any antiviral drugs or traditional Chinese medicine.”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #146 on: January 28, 2020, 05:31:27 PM »


https://twitter.com/maiamajumder/status/1221594560851251201

We've updated our transmissibility assessment for #nCoV2019! R_0 estimates (based off of publicly reported confirmed cases through 1/26/20 & subject to change) remain ~stable, now ranging from 2.0 to 3.1.

Pre-print will be updated soon: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3524675

See thread below.

https://twitter.com/maiamajumder/status/1221594560851251201

https://twitter.com/maiamajumder/status/1220501403057229824



https://www.vox.com/2020/1/28/21079946/coronavirus-china-wuhan-deaths-pandemic
« Last Edit: January 28, 2020, 05:44:41 PM by vox_mundi »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #147 on: January 28, 2020, 06:11:02 PM »
You know, I can't see how China will be able to confine the virus to the lockdowned cities, in view of the migrant workers I mentioned above. They will just go on foot over or around the roadblocks. Maybe the provinces can be quarantined?

And as for news:
Coronavirus live updates: U.S. seeks to send expert team to China to combat coronavirus outbreak; Xi defends response
By
Gerry Shih,
Simon Denyer and
Siobhán O'Grady
Jan. 28, 2020 at 11:57 a.m. EST
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/01/28/da7664f2-414d-11ea-b503-2b077c436617_story.html
Quote
● Several countries, including France, South Korea, Canada, Britain and the United States are putting together plans to evacuate their citizens from the outbreak epicenter in Wuhan.

● Germany has reported its first case, while Thailand has confirmed six more cases, bringing its total to 14 amid calls by many Asian populations to close the borders to Chinese visitors. Infections have been confirmed in France, South Korea, Japan, Nepal, Cambodia, Singapore, Vietnam, Taiwan, Canada and Sri Lanka. We’re mapping the spread here.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2020, 06:16:08 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #148 on: January 28, 2020, 07:58:27 PM »
Scenario planning,
What if you stayed in a hotel by Disneyland, frequented with Chinese tourists . Four days later
Returned home, got dry cough, mild temperature, then 102
OK it’s time to call a doctor but you should tell the whole story first I would think, before you go.
 Haven’t conditions changed even in countries with very few cases?

That's what is happening now. In Japan a busdriver is infected after he transported a group of chinese tourists. And probably there will be more infected people on that bus. So that group of infected chinese tourists is crossing Japan for a couple days. That means hotels, restaurants, tourist hotspots, airports....All places where you have plenty tourists, in Japan.

TerryM

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #149 on: January 28, 2020, 08:21:10 PM »
Will coronavirus affect the primary season in the US of A?
Rally's might be avoided and voters may huddle at home rather than waiting in lines.


In Canada we do a presumptive blood test, then send samples to Winnipeg and wait 3-4 days for results.


The maid's here today, no sniffles - but not a great line of work in these times.


nanning's afternoons alone in the woods might be a practice worth emulating!
Terry