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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 493253 times)

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10700 on: January 13, 2021, 06:01:24 PM »
Ohio Researchers Say They've Identified Two New Covid Strains Likely Originating In the U.S.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/01/13/ohio-researchers-say-theyve-identified-two-new-covid-strains-likely-originating-in-the-us.html

Researchers in Ohio said Wednesday that they've discovered two new variants of the coronavirus that likely originated in the U.S. — one of which quickly became the dominant strain in Columbus, Ohio, over a three-week period in late December and early January.

Like the strain first detected in the U.K., the U.S. mutations appear to make Covid-19 more contagious but do not seem like they will diminish the effectiveness of the vaccines, researchers said.

One of the new strains, found in just one patient in Ohio, contains a mutation identical to the now-dominant variant in the U.K., researchers said, noting that it "likely arose in a virus strain already present in the United States." However, the "Columbus strain," which the researchers said in a press release has become dominant in the city, includes "three other gene mutations not previously seen together in SARS-CoV2."

... Like the U.K. strain, mutations detected in both viruses affect the spikes that stud the surface of SARS-Cov-2. The spikes enable the virus to attach to and enter human cells. Also like the U.K. strain, the mutations in the Columbus strain are likely to make the virus more infectious, making it easier for the virus to pass from person to person.

https://wexnermedical.osu.edu/mediaroom/pressreleaselisting/new-sars-cov2-variant

"This new Columbus strain has the same genetic backbone as earlier cases we've studied, but these three mutations represent a significant evolution," Dr. Dan Jones, vice chair of the division of molecular pathology at Ohio State and lead author of the study, said in a statement. "We know this shift didn't come from the U.K. or South African branches of the virus."

One of the mutations found in Columbus — COH.20G/501Y — "may be occurring independently in multiple parts of the world during the past few months," the researchers said.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10701 on: January 13, 2021, 06:27:24 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Italy holds the line, Not getting much better, not getting worse. (X fingers)
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10702 on: January 13, 2021, 07:37:51 PM »
Ohio Researchers Say They've Identified Two New Covid Strains Likely Originating In the U.S.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/01/13/ohio-researchers-say-theyve-identified-two-new-covid-strains-likely-originating-in-the-us.html

Researchers in Ohio said Wednesday that they've discovered two new variants of the coronavirus that likely originated in the U.S. — one of which quickly became the dominant strain in Columbus, Ohio, over a three-week period in late December and early January.

Like the strain first detected in the U.K., the U.S. mutations appear to make Covid-19 more contagious but do not seem like they will diminish the effectiveness of the vaccines, researchers said.

One of the new strains, found in just one patient in Ohio, contains a mutation identical to the now-dominant variant in the U.K., researchers said, noting that it "likely arose in a virus strain already present in the United States." However, the "Columbus strain," which the researchers said in a press release has become dominant in the city, includes "three other gene mutations not previously seen together in SARS-CoV2."

... Like the U.K. strain, mutations detected in both viruses affect the spikes that stud the surface of SARS-Cov-2. The spikes enable the virus to attach to and enter human cells. Also like the U.K. strain, the mutations in the Columbus strain are likely to make the virus more infectious, making it easier for the virus to pass from person to person.

https://wexnermedical.osu.edu/mediaroom/pressreleaselisting/new-sars-cov2-variant

"This new Columbus strain has the same genetic backbone as earlier cases we've studied, but these three mutations represent a significant evolution," Dr. Dan Jones, vice chair of the division of molecular pathology at Ohio State and lead author of the study, said in a statement. "We know this shift didn't come from the U.K. or South African branches of the virus."

One of the mutations found in Columbus — COH.20G/501Y — "may be occurring independently in multiple parts of the world during the past few months," the researchers said.

Of course there's absolutely no way to know if these "vaccines" help against the mutations.

They'll have to do all new studies on each of these mutations to actually be able to make that statement.

That doesn't stop them from lying, however.  The truth is they have absolutely no idea if the "vaccine" would have any effectiveness against anything beyond what it was tested on and analyzed on.  I've only read the Pfizer study, but from what we were talking about earlier, that "study" is extremely questionable to begin with.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2021, 07:52:41 PM by harpy »

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10703 on: January 13, 2021, 08:08:50 PM »
With the Flu vaccine, it's modified every single year, because of mutations.

This is well documented, see the CDC website below:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/vaccine-selection.htm#:~:text=Flu%20viruses%20are%20constantly%20changing,vaccine%20protects%20against%20those%20viruses.

So long as COVID-19  spike proteins are affected by mutations, which it actually is, there's a good chance that just like the flu vaccine, this one will need to constantly be altered.


This subject is well documented, here's an excerpt from the CDC website:

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses/change.htm

Quote
However, the small changes associated with antigenic drift can accumulate over time and result in viruses that are antigenically different (further away on the phylogenetic tree). It is also possible for a single (or small) change in a particularly important location on the HA to result in antigenic drift. When antigenic drift occurs, the body’s immune system may not recognize and prevent sickness caused by the newer influenza viruses. As a result, a person becomes susceptible to flu infection again, as antigenic drift has changed the virus enough that a person’s existing antibodies won’t recognize and neutralize the newer influenza viruses.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2021, 08:27:34 PM by harpy »

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10704 on: January 13, 2021, 09:07:51 PM »
Cyber Attackers Leaked Covid-19 Vaccine Data After EU Hack

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-12/covid-vaccine-documents-leaked-on-web-eu-drug-regulator-says

Here's a nice quote from one of the leaked files:

Quote
Where data is submitted the dossier is overall of acceptable quality  however a substantial amount of information is pending due to the very short time frame of product development.....

« Last Edit: January 13, 2021, 09:48:15 PM by harpy »

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10705 on: January 13, 2021, 09:58:44 PM »
Of course there's absolutely no way to know if these "vaccines" help against the mutations.

They'll have to do all new studies on each of these mutations to actually be able to make that statement.

That doesn't stop them from lying, however.  The truth is they have absolutely no idea if the "vaccine" would have any effectiveness against anything beyond what it was tested on and analyzed on.
None of this is true.  Nobody would run a big clinical trial to measure effectiveness of a vaccine against a specific mutation.
Instead, virus inactivation assays are run.  These involve incubating live virus (original and mutant) with serum from fully vaccinated (and non-vaccinated) people.  If the vaccinated serum inactivates mutant virus as effectively as it inactivates the original strain, then this is quite strong evidence that the vaccine remains effective.

No, it's not absolute proof, it's just a persuasive indicator.  We'll know more definitively as vaccine failures accumulate.  The particular strains/variants responsible for these vaccine failures will be studied carefully.

We should not be surprised if some variant arises that is resistant to antibodies produced by the vaccines.  This will indicate the need for multi-valent vaccines, as we use for other infections.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10706 on: January 13, 2021, 10:18:51 PM »
No ICU Beds? Expect Double the Number of Covid-19 Deaths
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/2021/1/13/22224445/covid-19-deaths-in-us-hospital-beds-icu

When hospitals fill up, the risk of death for coronavirus patients spikes, new studies find.

... When intensive care units go from zero beds occupied to every bed full, patients have a 92 percent increased risk of death from Covid-19, according to a preprint published Wednesday on MedRxiv.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.11.21249461v1

That means that when hospitals are pushed to maximum ICU capacity, the worst-case scenario is a near doubling of the risk of death for severely sick patients, the study found. For instance, a 40-year-old in a full intensive care unit would have the same risk of death as a 51-year-old, the study’s authors — researchers at UK institutions including Imperial College London, University College London, and the Wellcome Trust — estimated.

These risks fell along the gradient: As occupancy rates climbed higher, so did the risk of death. A second new preprint, analyzing data from nearly 20,000 Covid-19 patients in Israel, came to a similar conclusion:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.11.21249526v1


https://mobile.twitter.com/segal_eran/status/1349295579067805699

The studies are particularly relevant at a time when more than one-fifth of hospitals with intensive care units in the US are reporting ICU bed occupancy levels of at least 95 percent and the daily coronavirus death count hit an all-time high (4,320 on January 13). The papers are also a grim reminder of why allowing the virus to run rampant is so dangerous, even as doctors have better treatments for the disease and vaccines are being rolled out worldwide.

“I’m saying [high] occupancy leads to mortality,” said Bilal Mateen, an author on the UK paper and a clinician-researcher who works at the Wellcome Trust and Kings College Hospital in London. “So that even if the virus isn’t directly killing you, indirect factors — like how full an ICU is on the day you arrive in hospital — are probably going to change your risk.”

----------------------------------------------

Two Cases Of UK Coronavirus Variant Found In NYC
https://champ.gothamist.com/champ/gothamist/news/two-cases-troubling-coronavirus-variant-found-nyc

Two cases of a coronavirus variant that originated in the United Kingdom and believed to be significantly more contagious have been identified in New York City.

Mayor Bill de Blasio announced the news Wednesday morning during a press conference at City Hall. It is the first time that health officials have discovered the variant, known officially as B.1.1.7., in New York City. Health officials have found 15 cases of the variant statewide

At least 10 U.S. states and 50 countries are known to have cases of the variant.

-----------------------------------------------

Eli Lilly CEO Says Covid Variant from South Africa May 'Evade' Its Antibody Drug
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/12/covid-variant-found-in-south-africa-could-evade-eli-lillys-antibody-drug-ceo.html

Eli Lilly CEO Dave Ricks told CNBC the company is not sure whether its Covid-19 antibody drugs will be effective against a coronavirus strain initially found in South Africa. However, he expressed confidence that the treatment would work on the variant found in the U.K.

"The South African variant ... is the one of concern. It has more dramatic mutations to that spike protein, which is the target" of these antibody drugs, Ricks said. "Theoretically, it could evade our medicines."

He said the company wants to work with the Food and Drug Administration on a plan to adapt antibody therapies to virus variants, including the one first discovered in South Africa.

"We actually have a large library of these antibodies now that are sitting pre-clinically," said Ricks. "We could think about a very expedited path to study them in maybe a month or two, and then authorize their use. That would seem to be a smart thing to do as this virus mutates."
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10707 on: January 14, 2021, 03:51:30 AM »
Quote
None of this is true.  Nobody would run a big clinical trial to measure effectiveness of a vaccine against a specific mutation.
  - Yes they would, if the mutation was bad enough.  So your statement is, as you put it, not true.

Quote
Instead, virus inactivation assays are run.  These involve incubating live virus (original and mutant) with serum from fully vaccinated (and non-vaccinated) people.  If the vaccinated serum inactivates mutant virus as effectively as it inactivates the original strain, then this is quite strong evidence that the vaccine remains effective.
  Yes, that is one way.  The other way is through animal trials, which is generally how immunology studies are carried out.

The final method, is simply following infected public test subjects (aka vaccine recipients) to see if they test positive for one of the mutations. 

The ongoing public experiment is our version of phase 3 trials.  With the mutations emerging, this will be an interesting test to see whether they offer protection or whether it was a complete waste of time and effort.

Quote
We should not be surprised if some variant arises that is resistant to antibodies produced by the vaccines.  This will indicate the need for multi-valent vaccines, as we use for other infections.
  - of course, this is obvious.  I made a previous post on this exact subject.



« Last Edit: January 14, 2021, 03:58:52 AM by harpy »

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10708 on: January 14, 2021, 08:25:11 AM »
Jesus, harpy, just give it up now...you are plain wrong about most of the things you wrote about the virus the past few weeks/months

Neither fearmongering nor belittling the virus is a good soultion. This is a science site, let's try to stick to the facts. Steve is definitely right.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10709 on: January 14, 2021, 08:27:10 AM »
From the virus' perspective, a higher R value could mean that a given village all comes down with the flu, everyone goes to bed and recovers, and the virus never gets to spread to the next village.  It wants to circulate in a community for a longer time, for more opportunities to spread to the next community.

Covid is contagious for longer for an individual, so a higher R does not have this disadvantage.  As long as people can be contagious for more than a week, then the higher the better.  All the better if some people are asymptomatic.  Those people will travel rather than take to their beds.  This virus functions extremely well for producing the problems it has.  A tough nut to crack.

Good argument, I can accept that

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10710 on: January 14, 2021, 10:05:35 AM »
Past Covid-19 infection may provide 'months of immunity'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55651518

Quote
Most people who have had Covid-19 are protected from catching it again for at least five months, a study led by Public Health England shows.

Past infection was linked to an 83% lower risk of getting the virus, compared with those who had never had Covid-19, scientists found.

Quote
From June to November 2020, almost 21,000 healthcare workers across the UK were regularly tested to see whether they:

currently had the coronavirus
had had it previously
Of those who had no antibodies to the virus, suggesting they had never had it, 318 developed potential new infections within this timeframe, the tests indicated.

But among the 6,614 with antibodies, this figure was just 44.

There's going to have been a lot more reinfections since November, most of this study period is the trough between waves. No sign of the preprint this is reporting on though, looks to be publication via press release on the SIREN study. The headline result looks fairly solid though, 1/6 the chance of reinfection compared to new infection for working age adults on a 5 month timescale. There is protection, but its far from absolute even within 5 months.

Its an ongoing study so there'll be lots more infection data for the second wave and then on the effect of vaccines. They have a way to follow vaccine induced antibodies at the same time as infection induced ones so there'll be data to separate out the protective effects from one another.

Protection against passing it on may be rather worse than protection against disease.

Quote
It was particularly concerning some of those reinfected had high levels of the virus - even without symptoms - and were at risk of passing it on to others, she said.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10711 on: January 14, 2021, 10:28:02 AM »
Excellent research, though disturbing results. 1/6 the chance of infection is way too high. Hopefully the larger dataset will be more optimistic, and/or the vaccine turn out to have higher efficacy than previous infection.

Paddy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10712 on: January 14, 2021, 11:58:09 AM »
Those are some troubling results.  If a significant proportion of people who've had COVID before can be reinfected asymptomatically and become unsuspecting spreaders of the disease, we're in for a longer battle even than we realised.

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10713 on: January 14, 2021, 02:00:47 PM »
Obviously, infection doesn't provide immunity for very long, because otherwise the current situation in London makes no sense at all.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10714 on: January 14, 2021, 02:30:15 PM »
Jesus, harpy, just give it up now...you are plain wrong about most of the things you wrote about the virus the past few weeks/months

Neither fearmongering nor belittling the virus is a good soultion. This is a science site, let's try to stick to the facts. Steve is definitely right.


You're literally just trying to twist the truth instead citing my posts and refute them.

Quote
Those are some troubling results.  If a significant proportion of people who've had COVID before can be reinfected asymptomatically and become unsuspecting spreaders of the disease, we're in for a longer battle even than we realised.

- This situation is likely permanent, not a long battle, a permanent battle. 
« Last Edit: January 14, 2021, 04:19:33 PM by harpy »

Paddy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10715 on: January 14, 2021, 02:50:11 PM »
Obviously, infection doesn't provide immunity for very long, because otherwise the current situation in London makes no sense at all.

I beg to differ.  For herd immunity, you'd need a large majority of the population to be immune.   The UK has had nearly 85,000 COVID deaths.  Assuming 1% case mortality, that would extrapolate to roughly 8.5 million infections, or 12.5% of the population; leaving the other 87.5% of the population still vulnerable to getting infected even if infection provided lifelong immunity to 100% of people infected (which it clearly doesn't).  Even if the true number infected is twice this many, or the proportion of London's population previously infected was twice that of the UK average, 75% of the population would still be vulnerable.

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10716 on: January 14, 2021, 02:56:58 PM »
Obviously, infection doesn't provide immunity for very long, because otherwise the current situation in London makes no sense at all.

Not following the reasoning for that so I doubt it is 'obviously'. What make you think there is lots of reinfection?

The total number of COVID-19 cases identified in London is 538,312 as at 12 January 2021
Actual infections will be quite a bit higher but even at 4-8 times this, it hasn't reached 75-80% of population needed for herd immunity assuming infection does provide immunity.

44 in a large risky group (healthcare workers) just mentioned perhaps suggest around 1/6 of normal chance of reinfection but that doesn't really tell us whether the immunity is wearing off and risk increases quickly for large proportion of people or at other extreme 1/6 are always at risk of reinfection but the other 5/6 are indefinitely immune.

I don't see how London figures help to resolve this.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2021, 03:12:32 PM by crandles »

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10717 on: January 14, 2021, 03:21:01 PM »
Quote
Of the 44 potential reinfections identified by the study, 2 were designated ‘probable’ and 42 ‘possible’, based on the amount of confirmatory evidence available. If all 44 cases were confirmed, it would represent an 83% rate of protection from reinfection, while if only the 2 ‘probable’ reinfections were confirmed, the rate would be 99%. Further research is ongoing to clarify this range.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/past-covid-19-infection-provides-some-immunity-but-people-may-still-carry-and-transmit-virus

I would imagine it will be nearer 83% than 99% and this percentage will decline with increased time from first infection.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10718 on: January 14, 2021, 03:33:36 PM »
According to this article, the proportion of Londoners with antibodies was around 12.8% in November, while for the whole of the UK it was 8.7%. The figures will be higher now, but the "London situation" could very well be taking place even with no significant reinfections. a 10-15% reduction in the R is not enough, especially given the higher infectivity of the new variant...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-cases-antibodies-uk-london-b1773283.html

Quote
Coronavirus: 1 in 11 Britons have developed antibodies against Covid, new estimates show
‘Substantial variation’ in antibody positivity between different regions of England, says Office for National Statistics

One in 11 people in England are estimated to have developed antibodies against Covid-19, according to the latest data.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics suggest that a total of 3,914,000 people, or 8.7 per cent of the population, would have returned a positive result if tested for antibodies in November.

This is up from October’s estimate of 3.1 million, and more than double the government’s own analysis, which says that 1.85 million people have been infected with the virus to date.

The ONS said there was “substantial variation” in antibody positivity between different regions of England.

In London, it is estimated that 12.8 per cent of the city’s population have antibodies in their blood. This figure stands at 10.1 per cent in the North East, 10.9 per cent for the North West and 11.1 per cent for Yorkshire and The Humber - three of the hardest-hit regions in the country.

The South West, in contrast, has an antibody positivity rate of 3.9 per cent, suggesting 179,000 people in the region have been exposed to and recovered from the virus.

Outside of England, the ONS estimated that 326,000 people in Scotland have antibodies (7.3 per cent), 140,000 in Wales (5.5 per cent) and 49,000 in Northern Ireland (3.3 per cent).

It takes between two and three weeks for the body to make enough antibodies to fight the infection but once a person recovers, these ‘search-and-destroy’ proteins remain in the blood at low levels.

Over time, a person’s antibody count can decline to the point that tests no longer detect them - though recent research has shown that immunity against Covid-19 lasts at least eight months, and could offer some form of natural protection for a number of years.

The ONS' estimates are based on thousands of blood tests that are carried out by a trained professional at participants’ homes. The results of this survey are then extrapolated to the nationwide population.

Sample testing is specific people over the age of 16 and excludes those in hospitals, care homes and other institutional settings in England.

The 8.7 per cent estimate is the highest since the ONS study began in May, at the height of the first wave.

Then, 3.3 million people - or one in 14 - are thought to have had coronavirus antibodies.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10719 on: January 14, 2021, 05:07:04 PM »
Excellent research, though disturbing results. 1/6 the chance of infection is way too high. Hopefully the larger dataset will be more optimistic, and/or the vaccine turn out to have higher efficacy than previous infection.

If reinfection is milder than first infection then it does not matter. Someone quoted excellent research about this upthread. Then, even if covid becomes endemic it won't be more dangerous than the flu.
All vaccine trials point to the direction that even if you catch the virus after being introduced to it first (by vaccination) there is very little chance of serious complications, meaning that mortality and hospitalization should be very much reduced = it's gonna be like the flu.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10720 on: January 14, 2021, 05:30:36 PM »
Excellent research, though disturbing results. 1/6 the chance of infection is way too high. Hopefully the larger dataset will be more optimistic, and/or the vaccine turn out to have higher efficacy than previous infection.

If reinfection is milder than first infection then it does not matter. Someone quoted excellent research about this upthread. Then, even if covid becomes endemic it won't be more dangerous than the flu.
All vaccine trials point to the direction that even if you catch the virus after being introduced to it first (by vaccination) there is very little chance of serious complications, meaning that mortality and hospitalization should be very much reduced = it's gonna be like the flu.

That paper demonstrates a the possibility of a lower IFR over time.

Just because the IFR drops doesn't mean it's "just the flu", - that's Trump era nonsense.  We're past that now.

Hopefully you've been following this thread long enough to know that COVID-19 is dangerous for many other reasons, beyond the IFR (which is quite high, if hospitals get over-whelmed).

« Last Edit: January 14, 2021, 05:44:40 PM by harpy »

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10721 on: January 14, 2021, 07:51:28 PM »
17 % of the new serious cases had their first shot of the Pfizer vaccine. https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-data-shows-50-reduction-in-infections-14-days-after-first-vaccine-shot/

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10722 on: January 14, 2021, 08:34:23 PM »
Quote
Of the 44 potential reinfections identified by the study, 2 were designated ‘probable’ and 42 ‘possible’, based on the amount of confirmatory evidence available. If all 44 cases were confirmed, it would represent an 83% rate of protection from reinfection, while if only the 2 ‘probable’ reinfections were confirmed, the rate would be 99%. Further research is ongoing to clarify this range.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/past-covid-19-infection-provides-some-immunity-but-people-may-still-carry-and-transmit-virus

I would imagine it will be nearer 83% than 99% and this percentage will decline with increased time from first infection.

It needs more information. If they are calling them "possibles" because most tests done at recruitment were the dodgy commercial type with huge false positive rates, its could end up close to 99% since 42 is well within the error bounds for the number of false positives those antibody tests generate. If they did the same sort of testing that the UK blood donor surveillance uses, it is going to end up near to 83% and describing them as possibles is a reflection on them having really strong priors against accepting reinfection evidence rather than the evidence itself.

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10723 on: January 14, 2021, 09:30:20 PM »
17 % of the new serious cases had their first shot of the Pfizer vaccine. https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-data-shows-50-reduction-in-infections-14-days-after-first-vaccine-shot/

Quote
With Pfizer’s phase 3 trials only checking some 40,000 people, and given Israel’s world-leading vaccination campaign, the data could be some of the best on-the-ground indication yet of the vaccine’s efficacy.

The 40,000 in the trial were tested daily. Many of these positives won't have been tested before so could have had covid for a while i.e. before 12 days after first dose. So I don't think it should be a surprise that the reported efficacy this early on sounds much lower than the trials. Hopefully the data will move up towards the trial efficacy rates as more time passes.

My apologies, they weren't tested daily.
« Last Edit: January 15, 2021, 01:16:52 AM by crandles »

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10724 on: January 14, 2021, 10:09:31 PM »
That Pfizer study didn't actually test the subjects daily.    They simply define how they would call someone COVID-19 positive:

Feel free to show us where it says that they were tested daily.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577?articleTools=true


Quote
Confirmed Covid-19 was defined according to the
Food and Drug Administration (FDA) criteria as
the presence of at least one of the following
symptoms: fever, new or increased cough, new or
increased shortness of breath, chills, new or increased muscle pain, new loss of taste or smell,
sore throat, diarrhea, or vomiting, combined with
a respiratory specimen obtained during the symptomatic period or within 4 days before or after it
that was positive for SARS-CoV-2 by nucleic acid
amplification–based testing, either at the central
laboratory or at a local testing facility (using a
protocol-defined acceptable test)
« Last Edit: January 14, 2021, 10:20:09 PM by harpy »

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10725 on: January 14, 2021, 11:00:49 PM »
17 % of the new serious cases had their first shot of the Pfizer vaccine. https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-data-shows-50-reduction-in-infections-14-days-after-first-vaccine-shot/
Most of these caught it very soon after the first shot, at a time when they were not expected to be protected, so the data doesn't prove much.

As of Jan 10th, of the 375 Israelis who had their first shot and then were infected seriously enough to be hospitalized:
* 244 were 1-7 days after the first shot.
* 124 were 8-14 days after the first shot.
* Only 7 were 15+ days after the first shot.

This doesn't prove much either, as there are many more people 1-7 days and 8-14 days from first shot compared to the number of people 15+ days from first shot. Vaccinations began very recently. So we will have to wait for more info, which will be arriving soon.

An initial study ran by the research arm of Israel's largest HMO tracking 200,000 people showed a significant drop in infection risk after 14 days from first shot, supporting the Pfizer data, but again more info will be had very soon, this is just preliminary stuff.
Actual vaccine efficacy in Israeli conditions will be known with certainty in about a month. Either it works or it doesn't (I expect it does). The country's four HMOs are all fully computerized, and every citizen is enrolled in one of them. The HMOs all provide medical services, they are not just a health insurance scheme. A huge number of Covid tests is run each day, and an intensive tracing effort is underway, so most infections are eventually known and fed into databases.
One could wish Israeli politics were at the level of the country's health system.

One more interesting piece of data: in early December the UK variant had a 2-3% share of infections in Israel. Now one month later that share has jumped to 50%. High infectivity indeed.

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10726 on: January 15, 2021, 12:15:10 AM »


Worldometer just now .. Deaths: 2,000,286
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10727 on: January 15, 2021, 08:23:02 AM »
This thing will be mostly over by the end of May. 20-30% of the American/European population will have been infected by then and at least 20% will get the vaccine (even in Europe where there is a scarcity of vaccines). Since COVID is highly seasonal, summertime R is definitely lower than wintertime R. Last summer R was 1,2-1,5 in Europe with basically not effort, no masks, nothing. This means that even vaccinating 20% (plus 20-30% who got it before) will be enough to push it back into the shadows (because R will be lower than 1, even with the mutant version).
Then, during summer and autumn you will have to vaccinate the rest of the population which will happen.

blu_ice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10728 on: January 15, 2021, 10:43:54 AM »
This thing will be mostly over by the end of May. 20-30% of the American/European population will have been infected by then and at least 20% will get the vaccine (even in Europe where there is a scarcity of vaccines). Since COVID is highly seasonal, summertime R is definitely lower than wintertime R. Last summer R was 1,2-1,5 in Europe with basically not effort, no masks, nothing. This means that even vaccinating 20% (plus 20-30% who got it before) will be enough to push it back into the shadows (because R will be lower than 1, even with the mutant version).
Then, during summer and autumn you will have to vaccinate the rest of the population which will happen.
Yep. Mortality should decrease even faster because risk groups are vaccinated first.

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10729 on: January 15, 2021, 11:43:56 AM »
?

This thing will be mostly over by the end of May.
Yep.

Meanwhile,

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

World recorded covid deaths just passed 2 million.
Looks like just maybe the peak of new cases has passed but not yet the peak of daily deaths.

let us hope the virus does not successfully mutate to reduce the effectiveness of current vaccines.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10730 on: January 15, 2021, 02:16:15 PM »
More than 20 people vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine died in Norway


https://eurnews.net/more-than-20-people-vaccinated-with-the-pfizer-vaccine-died-in-norway/


Quote
Specialists are investigating the causes of death of citizens. 13 cases have already been examined.

The agency noted that the vaccine may indeed have caused side effects that led to “a more serious course of existing diseases in older people.”

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10731 on: January 15, 2021, 02:34:40 PM »
1 person with British mutation gives 146 people COVID

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/294943

Quote
An Israeli woman who contracted the British coronavirus variant went on to infect 146 other people, with 742 other people under investigation for possibly contracting the disease from her. This is the largest infection chain originating from a single person which has been observed in Israel so far.

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10732 on: January 15, 2021, 04:48:57 PM »
New excess death analysis in the New York Times:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/14/us/covid-19-death-toll.html

Since March, at least 400,000 more Americans have died than would have in a normal year, a sign of the broad devastation wrought by the coronavirus pandemic.

An analysis of mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows how the pandemic is bringing with it unusual patterns of death, even higher than the official totals of deaths that have been directly linked to the virus.

Deaths nationwide were 18 percent higher than normal from March 15, 2020, to Dec. 26, 2020. Our numbers may be an undercount since recent death statistics are still being updated.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10733 on: January 15, 2021, 06:43:57 PM »
There Is No COVID Vaccine Reserve. Trump Admin Already Shipped It
https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/01/there-is-no-covid-vaccine-reserve-trump-admin-already-shipped-it/

The Trump administration announced Tuesday, January 12, that it would begin shipping reserved vaccine supplies, raising hopes that states may see their vaccine supply potentially double as they work to accelerate the sluggish immunization campaign. But according to a report by The Washington Post, that promised vaccine stockpile doesn’t actually exist—it was already shipped out—and the limited vaccine supply available to states will remain as it is for now.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/15/trump-vaccine-reserve-used-up/

The news has not only left state health officials angry and confused by the false promises, they’re also left scrambling to sort out distribution changes. In addition to claiming they would release the (non-existent) stockpile, Trump administration officials told states to expand access to vaccines—now allowing anyone over age 65 to get vaccinated and people under 65 who have a documented underlying health condition that makes them more vulnerable to COVID-19.

The expanded eligibility covers around 152 million people in the US. But administration officials had previously estimated that it wouldn’t be until the end of March before they would have 200 million doses—enough to vaccinate only 100 million people—as STAT noted earlier.

In just the few days since the administration announced the changes, states have already seen chaos ensue at vaccine distribution sites. Mississippi’s health department simply stopped taking vaccine appointments after a “monumental surge,” according to the Associated Press. Phone lines were jammed in Georgia, hospitals in South Carolina ran out of doses within hours, and California counties were left begging for extra supplies for seniors.

Amid the chaos, the Trump administration isn’t offering clear answers on what happened or why officials misled states. According to the Post’s reporting, the Trump administration stopped reserving second doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine at the end of last year, and the last reserves of Moderna’s vaccine supply were shipped out over the past weekend.

There was no stockpile to release on Tuesday when the Health and Human Services secretary said at a press briefing that "because we now have a consistent pace of production, we can now ship all of the doses that had been held in physical reserve.”

In a Twitter thread Friday morning, Oregon Gov. Kate Brown she was “shocked and appalled” to learn that the state “will not be receiving increased shipments of vaccines from the national stockpile next week, because there is no federal reserve of doses.”

“[T]hat they have set an expectation on which they could not deliver, with such grave consequences… This is a deception on a national scale,” Gov. Brown went on.

And there’s more. Azar also said on Tuesday that they would change how they calculated each state’s allotment, taking into account the pace of vaccination in each state. Fast states would get additional doses while slow states would be punished with fewer doses. Azar said the change would take effect in two weeks. However, as the Post notes, Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont on Thursday tweeted that federal officials had notified the state that it would receive an additional 50,000 doses next week “as a reward for being among the fastest states.”

----------------------------------------------



----------------------------------------------

Coronavirus Vaccine Effort Falls Behind In The Deep South
https://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_60016316c5b6efae62f79b25/amp

In Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi and South Carolina, less than 2% of the population has received its first dose of a vaccine.

-------------------------------------------------

Pfizer Temporarily Reduces European Deliveries of Vaccine
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Business/wireStory/pfizer-temporarily-reduces-european-deliveries-vaccine-75276012

COPENHAGEN, Denmark -- U.S. pharmaceutical company Pfizer confirmed Friday it will temporarily reduce deliveries to Europe of its COVID-19 vaccine while it upgrades production capacity to 2 billion doses per year.

“This temporary reduction will affect all European countries,” a spokeswoman for Pfizer Denmark said in a statement to The Associated Press.

“As a consequence, fewer doses will be available for European countries at the end of January and the beginning of February,” she said.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10734 on: January 15, 2021, 06:46:10 PM »
Post-COVID Lungs Worse Than the Worst Smokers' Lungs, Surgeon Says
https://twitter.com/BKendallMD/status/1346030479112331265
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/covid-lungs-worse-smokers-lungs/

A Texas trauma surgeon says it's rare that X-rays from any of her COVID-19 patients come back without dense scarring. Dr. Brittany Bankhead-Kendall tweeted, "Post-COVID lungs look worse than any type of terrible smoker's lung we've ever seen. And they collapse. And they clot off. And the shortness of breath lingers on... & on... & on."

"Everyone's just so worried about the mortality thing and that's terrible and it's awful," she told CBS Dallas-Fort Worth. "But man, for all the survivors and the people who have tested positive this is — it's going to be a problem."

Bankhead-Kendall, an assistant professor of surgery with Texas Tech University, in Lubbock, says patients who've had COVID-19 symptoms show a severe chest X-ray every time, and those who were asymptomatic show a severe chest X-ray 70% to 80% of the time.

"There are still people who say 'I'm fine. I don't have any issues,' and you pull up their chest X-ray and they absolutely have a bad chest X-ray," she said.



"You'll either see a lot of that white, dense scarring or you'll see it throughout the entire lung. Even if you're not feeling problems now, the fact that that's on your chest X-ray — it sure is indicative of you possibly having problems later on," she said.

... She also points out, "There is no long-term implication of a vaccine that could ever be as bad as the long-term implications of COVID."


----------------------------------------------

One in three Los Angeles County residents have been infected with the coronavirus, according to new estimates by county scientists, an astonishing sign of how rapidly the virus is spreading in the hard-hit region.

The estimate, based on scientific modeling, means officials believe more than 3 million of L.A. County’s 10 million residents have been infected with the coronavirus, including nearly 13,000 who have died.

That’s more than triple the cumulative number of coronavirus cases that have been confirmed by testing. Officials have long believed that testing only captures a certain percentage of those who are infected because many with the virus don’t show symptoms or suffer only mild symptoms.

The rising number of those infected has actually slowed the pace of coronavirus transmission, as the virus is increasingly coming into contact with people who have survived the infection and likely developed immunity.

“Unfortunately, we are still engaging in behaviors that facilitate spread of the virus, so it is still able to find plenty of susceptible people to infect,” said Dr. Roger Lewis, director of COVID-19 hospital demand modeling for the L.A. County Department of Health Services.

About 75% of L.A. County’s population will need to be immune to the virus through widespread vaccinations to dramatically slow its spread, Lewis estimated. Even if half of L.A. County’s population were immune, “and yet we decide to just pretend that we don’t have to take precautions, we will still have a very, very devastating pandemic.”

L.A. County averaged more than 15,000 new coronavirus cases a day over the past week — one of the highest such rates seen so far in the pandemic.

Surpassing 15,000 new coronavirus cases a day takes the county to a level that officials have warned may tip L.A. County’s overwhelmed hospitals into a worse catastrophe, straining resources and stretching staffing to a point that healthcare officials may have to choose which patients receive the attention of critical care nurses and respiratory therapists and access to ventilators and which patients receive palliative care.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

longwalks1

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10735 on: January 15, 2021, 06:51:49 PM »
Saw a decent post on Counterpunch on Covid-19 that leaned heavily on a ProPublica Post.  Searched, I don't see it posted elsewhere here.

https://www.propublica.org/article/inside-the-fall-of-the-cdc

Blame everywhere.   Pence and Redfield over muzzling the CDS over how dangerous choir singing could be
Quote
he week before, the CDC had published its investigation of an outbreak at an Arkansas church that had resulted in four deaths. The agency’s scientific journal recently had detailed a superspreader event in which 52 of the 61 singers at a 2½-hour choir practice developed COVID-19. Two died.

Quote
roPublica obtained hundreds of emails and other internal government documents and interviewed more than 30 CDC employees, contractors and Trump administration officials who witnessed or were involved in key moments of the crisis. Although news organizations around the world have chronicled the CDC’s stumbles in real time, ProPublica’s reporting affords the most comprehensive inside look at the escalating tensions, paranoia and pained discussions that unfolded behind the walls of CDC’s Atlanta headquarters. And it sheds new light on the botched COVID-19 tests, the unprecedented political interference in public health policy, and the capitulations of some of the world’s top public health leaders.

The crucial lack of data from China, sometimes your friends-acquaintance let you down.

Quote
To Redfield’s chagrin, however, the conversations with Gao came to a sudden halt. Ominous news accumulated: the first recorded death, Jan. 9, the first case outside China, Jan. 13. In the secure, high-tech room where the CDC brain trust met, the mood turned dark as the scientists began to fear they were confronting a pandemic.

And a very nuanced description of the CDC's botched test kits. 

Quote
Lindstrom’s lab didn’t have the equipment or expertise needed to make the raw materials for the test. But an underground corridor led to another CDC lab — the “core facility” — in a gleaming glass tower. Lindstrom had used it many times to quickly make testing materials. The facility could make what Lindstrom needed, but it was risky.

Paragraphs on paragraphs of mis-steps on cruise ships and especailly the Diamond Princess.

Quote
In September, the CDC proposed extending the no-sail order into February 2021, but the White House Coronavirus Task Force instead sided with the cruise industry and picked an end date of Oct. 31.

Mentioning individuals who stood up against racism

Quote
Cetron refused to sign off on the order, according to people who worked with him. “I will not be a part of this,” a furious Cetron told a colleague. “It’s just morally wrong to use a public authority that has never, ever, ever been used this way. It’s to keep Hispanics out of the country. And it’s wrong.”

With Cetron engaged in a personal act of civil disobedience, Redfield signed the order.

The data fiasco with CDC stripped of somthing it was doing very well.  Many states usOfa have lackluster overly privatized DPH's and some took large sums of CARE money to use for the governors aides salaries.  As I posted earlier Iowa DPH  was particularly inept.

Quote
But in a startling power play this spring, the Trump administration stripped the CDC of its lead role in handling this vital hospital data, bringing in a private contractor that would struggle to gather reliable information. The unprecedented move, CDC scientists and public health specialists said, struck at the heart of the agency’s mission.

Now, with fall pushing people indoors and threatening a new wave of infections, CDC scientists worry they will again have trouble tracking outbreaks and directing doctors, nurses, medicine and equipment to hotspots.

“When you don’t have quality data that is accurate and reliable, you miss out on signals,’’ a CDC data scientist said. “It can have a devastating impact.”

I stop now approximately 70% into the article. 

And a plea.  The exaggeration of fonts by some here , just stop.   




vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10736 on: January 15, 2021, 07:01:18 PM »
The 432-Year-Old Manual On Social Distancing
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210107-the-432-year-old-manual-on-social-distancing

Travel back in time more than 400 years to the Italian port city of Alghero. There in 1582, an unusually insightful physician would create some 57 rules for coping with the plague that had descended upon his small city that winter. Among them: “people are advised to keep six feet apart, avoid shaking hands and only send one person per household out to do the shopping.”

The doctor’s name: Quinto Tiberio Angelerio, and his booklet of 57 rules is called “Ectypa Pestilentis Status Algheriae Sardiniae.” The story continues ...
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10737 on: January 15, 2021, 08:17:16 PM »
« Last Edit: January 16, 2021, 12:37:19 AM by Shared Humanity »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10738 on: January 15, 2021, 08:25:56 PM »
C.D.C. Warns the New Virus Variant Could Fuel Huge Spikes in Covid Cases
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/15/health/covid-cdc-variant.html

Federal health officials sounded the alarm Friday about a fast spreading, far more contagious variant of the coronavirus that is projected to become the dominant source of infection in the country by March, potentially fueling another wrenching surge of cases and deaths.

In a study released on Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that its forecasts indicated outbreaks caused by the new variant could lead to a burgeoning pandemic this winter. It called for a doubling down on preventive measures, including more intensive vaccination efforts across the country.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm?s_cid=mm7003e2_w

... If we can’t get more protective immunity into the population, we could be facing a situation where we have, sort of, a perpetual infection heading into the spring and summer as these variants get a foothold here,” said the former FDA chief in the Trump administration in an interview on CNBC

---------------------------------------------



-------------------------------------------------

US Officials Warn ‘Full Resurgence’ of Covid In Major Population Centers
https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/14/us-covid-coronavirus-cases-deaths

White House coronavirus taskforce reports from 10 January, obtained by CNN, said they were seeing a “full resurgence” of the virus in “nearly all metro areas” and advocated for “aggressive action”.

The report, which is sent to states, suggested measures such as using “two or three-ply and well-fitting” masks, enforcing “strict” social distancing” and more aggressively testing young adults.

Officials worried that there was “significant, continued deterioration from California across the sun belt and up into the south-east, mid-Atlanticand north-east”. These regions effectively comprise all of the continental US.

The reports were quoted as stating that there was a “clear continuation of the pre-holiday high rate of spread as measured by rising test positivity, increased cases, increased hospitalization rates and rising fatalities”. ... In Los Angeles county, there is a Covid-19 death every eight minutes.

Health officials in Arizona said hospitals are poised to become overwhelmed unless authorities acted fast to combat coronavirus. The Republican governor has pushed back against a statewide mask mandate, the Times noted.

... The Centers for Disease Control made the dire prediction that there could be an increase of 90,000 deaths by February. This means that there could be up to 477,000 total coronavirus fatalities by 6 February, Forbes said of the data.

It does not appear there will be relief anytime soon, with officials voicing concern that some strains are making the surge even worse.

“This fall/winter surge has been at nearly twice the rate of rise of cases as the spring and summer surges.

“This acceleration and the epidemiologic data suggest the possibility that some strains of the US Covid-19 virus may have evolved into a more transmissible virus,” the White House taskforce reports said.

“Given that possibility, and the presence of the UK variant that is already spreading in our communities and may be 50% more transmissible, we must be ready for and mitigate a much more rapid transmission,”

-----------------------------------------------

Brazil's Amazonas State Running Out of Oxygen as COVID-19 Surges
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-amazon/brazils-amazonas-state-running-out-of-oxygen-as-covid-19-surges-idUSKBN29J2SJ

MANAUS, Brazil (Reuters) - The Brazilian state of Amazonas is running out of oxygen during a renewed surge in COVID-19 deaths, its government said on Thursday, with media reporting that people on respirators were dying of suffocation in hospitals.

The state has made a dramatic appeal to the United States to send a military transport plane to the capital city Manaus with oxygen cylinders, Amazonas Congressman Marcelo Ramos said.

Amazonas health secretary Marcellus Campelo said the state needs almost three times more oxygen that it can produce locally and appealed for supplies from other states.

... Public health experts gave dramatic accounts of people dying of COVID-9 in ICUs with no oxygen.

“The oxygen ran out and the hospitals have turned into suffocation chambers,” Fiocruz-Amazonia researcher Jesem Orellana told the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper. “Patients who manage to survive could suffer permanent brain damage,” he said.

“They took my father off the oxygen,” Raissa Floriano said outside the 28 de Agosto hospital in Manaus, where people protested that relatives suffering serious cases of COVID-19 were being unhooked from ventilators for lack of oxygen.

Sobbing, Floriano said she was looking for an oxygen cylinder to save her 73-year-old father Alfonso.

... Health authorities said oxygen supplies had run out at some hospitals and intensive care wards were so full that scores of patients were being airlifted to other states.

People in Manaus are again dying at home from COVID-19.

... so much for 'herd immunity'
« Last Edit: January 16, 2021, 04:11:56 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10739 on: January 15, 2021, 09:00:37 PM »
Brazil Rushes to Save Premature Babies as Covid-19 Swamps Manaus Hospitals
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/15/brazil-premature-babies-manaus-coronavirus-covid-19

Authorities in the Brazilian Amazon are reportedly racing to save dozens of premature babies after a surge in coronavirus cases caused a catastrophic breakdown in the oxygen supply to hospitals and clinics.

On Friday CNN Brasil reported that the northern state of Amazonas was seeking to transfer at least 60 babies from neonatal units in its capital, Manaus, to hospitals elsewhere in the country.

https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/saude/2021/01/15/amazonas-pede-para-transferir-60-bebes-prematuros

The emergency request to other state governments came as Brazil’s air force began evacuating coronavirus patients from the riverside city after a deadly interruption in the oxygen supply on Thursday morning.

That outage – caused by a sudden jump in hospital admissions that meant oxygen demand dramatically outstripped supply – left doctors and nurses desperately battling to save Covid patients with manual ventilation. Those who could not be saved were reportedly given morphine and the sedative midazolam to reduce their suffering.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10740 on: January 15, 2021, 11:32:33 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10741 on: January 16, 2021, 12:31:19 AM »
Post-COVID Lungs Worse Than the Worst Smokers' Lungs, Surgeon Says
https://twitter.com/BKendallMD/status/1346030479112331265
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/covid-lungs-worse-smokers-lungs/

So just like the flu.

If I understand this correctly, it doesn't matter how bad the symptoms are when you get Covid, your lungs get a beating anyway.

And given this is true, when people catch it a second time, it makes sense that there will be more damage to the lungs which, in my head, increase the odds of complications and, possibly, death by Covid.

This first round of Covid, assuming this line of thinking is correct, isn't the one that will be the most deadly, this is just the warm up.
We really need the vaccine program to hurry up, if it isn't sorted by next winter (NH) then we might be witness to something worse than than last year.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10742 on: January 16, 2021, 02:34:44 AM »
"The situation in Amazonas and particularly in Manaus has deteriorated significantly over the last couple of weeks," WHO emergency director Michael Ryan told a virtual media briefing from WHO's headquarters in Geneva.

"Clearly, if this continues, we are going to see a wave that is greater than what was a catastrophic wave in April and May in Amazonas and particularly in Manaus," he said, adding that that would be "a tragedy in itself".

In Manaus, hospital intensive care units have been at 100 percent capacity for the past two weeks, and more than 400 people with COVID-19 are waiting for a hospital bed to be freed up, he said.

At the same time, there is a shortage of oxygen and of gloves and other basic protective gear for medical workers.

"This is a system under extreme pressure," Ryan said, warning that another problem was that large numbers of not only medical staff but also lab technicians were becoming infected in their communities.

"This is a situation where your whole system begins to implode," he said.

He explained that this was "because your hospital system, your public health system, your laboratory system, those people are part of the community themselves, and they begin to become infected and you go into a negative spiral."

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-01-north-brazil-catastrophic-covid.html

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The U.K. variant of the coronavirus could become the predominant strain in the United States by March, according to a report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published Friday.

So far, only 76 cases of the variant, called B.1.1.7, have been identified in the country, in 10 states, the CDC said.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7003e2.htm?s_cid=mm7003e2_w

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President-elect Biden to activate FEMA, National Guard in U.S. vaccine efforts

The federal government will boost the nation's efforts to vaccinate millions of American against the coronavirus once President-elect Joe Biden takes office
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10743 on: January 16, 2021, 03:02:13 AM »
The COVID-19 Pandemic In Brazil Has Overwhelmed Its Health Systems
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-01-covid-pandemic-brazil-overwhelmed-health.html

The spread of COVID-19 in Brazil overwhelmed the health systems in all the country's regions, particularly in areas where they were already fragile, according to a collaborative effort involving the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal)...

The findings, published in The Lancet Respiratory Medicine, reveal that a large percentage of COVID-19 patients that were hospitalized in Brazil required intensive care and respiratory support, and many did not survive.

... Ranzani and his colleagues used data from a nationwide surveillance system to evaluate the characteristics of the first 250,000 patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 in Brazil, whether they required intensive care or respiratory support, and how many of them died. They also analyzed the impact of COVID-19 on healthcare resources and in-hospital mortality across the country's five big regions.

The analysis shows that almost half (47%) of the 254,288 patients admitted to hospital with COVID-19 were under 60 years-old. The in-hospital mortality rate was high (38%) and rose to 60% among those admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and to 80% for those who were mechanically ventilated. Although COVID-19 overwhelmed the health system in all five regions, hospital admissions and mortality were considerably higher in the North and Northeast regions at the beginning of the pandemic (for example, 31% of patients aged under 60 died in hospitals in the Northeast versus 15% in the South).

"These regional differences in mortality reflect differences in access to better health care that already existed before the pandemic," explains Fernando Bozza, study coordinator and researcher at the National Institute of Infectious Disease. "This means that COVID-19 not only disproportionately affects the most vulnerable patients but also the most fragile health systems," he adds. "Brazil's health system is one of the largest across the globe to provide care to everyone free of charge and has a solid tradition in the surveillance of infectious diseases. However, COVID-19 overwhelmed the system's capacity," says Ranzani.

Ranzani OT, Bastos LSL, Gelli JGM et al. Characterisation of the first 250000 hospital admissions for COVID-19 in Brazil: a retrospective analysis of nationwide data. Lancet Resp Med. Jan 2021
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30560-9

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Bolsonaro said that there was little he could do about the pandemic in Brazil as a second wave of the new coronavirus tears through the country and that he “should be at the beach.”

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-brazil-bolsonaro/brazils-bolsonaro-says-mission-to-get-vaccines-in-india-will-leave-within-three-days-idUSKBN29K2IO?edition-redirect=ca

Speaking in Brasilia, Brazilian Vice President Hamilton Mourão said there was no way to foresee the collapse in the public health system and blamed a new variant of coronavirus that is circulating in the city.

A Human Rights Watch (HRW) report published Wednesday accused Bolsonaro of having "tried to sabotage public health measures aimed at curbing the spread of Covid-19" earlier in the pandemic

https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/01/13/brazil-institutions-stand-bolsonaro

Brazilian Health Minister Eduardo Pazuello described the healthcare system in the Amazonas state capital, Manaus, as being in "collapse."

"I would say yes, there is a collapse in healthcare in Manaus. The line to get a hospital bed has grown a lot, today we have about 480 people waiting in line. And the reality is that there is a lower supply of oxygen -- not an interruption, but a lower supply of oxygen," he said during a Facebook live with Bolsonaro on Thursday.

Covid-19 vaccinations have yet to get underway in Brazil, despite its strong track record on national vaccination programs.

Speaking Thursday, Pazuello said Brazil would begin to inoculate people in January but did not specify a date.

Bolsonaro has publicly second-guessed the urgency of immunization, disparaging "the rush for a vaccine" in comments made last month.

"The pandemic is really reaching its end, the numbers have showed this, we are dealing with small rises now," he said, according to CNN Brasil. "But the rush for the vaccine is not justified because you are playing with people's lives."

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10744 on: January 16, 2021, 04:02:16 AM »
Reinfection Likely With Brazilian Variant

Given that Sars-Cov-2 transmission tends to happen early in an infection, before someone becomes severely ill, it’s not clear that a less deadly Sars-Cov-2 virus would have an evolutionary advantage over existing variants. However, as epidemics and vaccination campaigns lead to growing immunity, there could be additional pressures on viruses to evolve. One recent study suggests seasonal coronaviruses evolve gradually to evade immunity generated in preceding years, leading to reinfections over time.

... Recent analysis of antibody levels among blood donors in Manaus, Brazil suggested the majority of the population was infected in 2020. Yet in early 2021, hospitalisations and deaths grew again. This coincided with detection of a third concerning variant, 501Y.V3, which shares similarities with the one in South Africa. By mid-December, almost half the Sars-Cov-2 viruses analysed in Manaus were 501Y.V3.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/12/07/science.abe9728

https://virological.org/t/genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-manaus-preliminary-findings/586

There have also been new outbreaks in areas of Colombia and Peru that have substantial antibody levels from earlier waves, leading to suspicions that new variants are circulating there too. Even if they don’t cause more severe disease for individuals, increased transmission could mean far more cases — and hence hospitalisations and deaths.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-colombia/colombias-bogota-to-enter-lockdown-amid-new-strain-concerns-idUSKBN29C2N2

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Genomic characterisation of an emergent SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Manaus: preliminary findings
https://virological.org/t/genomic-characterisation-of-an-emergent-sars-cov-2-lineage-in-manaus-preliminary-findings/586

We have detected a new variant circulating in December in Manaus, Amazonas state, north Brazil, where very high attack rates have been estimated previously.

The new lineage, named P.1 (descendent of B.1.1.28), contains a unique constellation of lineage defining mutations, including several mutations of known biological importance such as E484K, K417T, and N501Y. Importantly, the P.1 lineage was identified in 42% (13 out of 31) RT-PCR positive samples collected between 15 to 23 December, but it was absent in 26 publicly available genome surveillance samples collected in Manaus between March to November 2020.

These findings indicate local transmission and possibly recent increase in the frequency of a new lineage from the Amazon region. The higher diversity and the earlier sampling dates of P.1. in Manaus corroborates the travel info of recently detected cases in Japan, suggesting the direction of travel was Manaus to Japan.

The recent emergence of variants with multiple shared mutations in spike raises concern about convergent evolution to a new phenotype, potentially associated with an increase in transmissibility or propensity for re-infection of individuals.

... The new P.1 lineage carries 17 unique amino acid changes, 3 deletions, and 4 synonymous mutations, and one 4nt insertion compared to the most closely related available non-P.1 sequence (EPI_ISL_722052), which lies at the base of the long branch immediately ancestral to P.1 (Fig. 1B). The P.1 lineage meets the criteria for new lineage designation on the basis that it is phylogenetically and genetically distinct from ancestral viruses, associated with rapid spread in a new area, and carries a constellation of mutations that may have functional and/or phenotypic relevance.

... We measured the frequency of two spike mutations of special interest among B.1.1.28 and its P.1. descendent lineage. The E484K mutation occurs in the receptor-binding domain (RBD) that the virus uses to bind to the human ACE2 receptor and has been associated with escape from neutralizing antibodies (Greaney et al. 2020 55). This variant now circulates throughout Brazil (Voloch et al. 2020; Naveca et al. 2020) and has been detected in a case of reinfection in Salvador, Bahia state (Nonaka et al. 2020). The frequency of the E484K among within B.1.1.28 lineage was 13% (n=100/750 genomes), while the frequency of E484K in the P.1 lineage was 100% (n=6/6 genomes with information at the position of interest). The N501Y mutation also occurs in the virus’ RBD. This mutation is associated with increased binding specificity and faster-growing lineages. This mutation is present in the P.1 lineage but has not been detected in Brazil, except in the two cases from a distinct B.1.1.7 lineage (Claro et al. 2020 16) and a single B.1 sequence from northeast Brazil (Paiva et al. 2020 4). The frequency of N501Y in the P.1 lineage was 100% (n=7/7 genomes with information at position of interest).

Convergent mutations shared between P1, B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 lineages
The newly described P.1. lineage from Manaus and the B.1.1.7 first described in the United Kingdom (Rambaut et al. 2020 22; https://cov-lineages.org/global_report_B.1.1.7.html 24) share the spike N501Y mutation and a deletion in ORF1b (del11288-11296 (3675-3677 SGF).

The P.1. lineage and the B.1.351 (also known as 501Y.V2) lineage described in South Africa (Tegally et al. 2020 8; https://cov-lineages.org/global_report_B.1.351.html 27) share three mutation positions in common in the spike protein (K417N/T, E484K, N501Y). Both the P.1 and the B.1.351 lineage also has the orf1b deletion del11288-11296 (3675-3677 SGF).

The set of mutations/deletions shared between P.1, B.1.1.7, and the B.1.351 lineages appear to have arisen entirely independently. Further, both mutations shared between P1 and B.1.351 seem to be associated with a rapid increase in cases in locations where previous attack rates are thought to be very high. Therefore it is essential to rapidly investigate whether there is an increased rate of re-infection in previously exposed individuals.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10745 on: January 16, 2021, 11:27:49 AM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

US Data
24 million recorded cases,
of which 9.5 million active cases.
400 thousand dead.

Just perhaps signs in the 7 day average data of this wave peaking.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10746 on: January 16, 2021, 11:39:37 AM »
If reinfection is milder than first infection then it does not matter. Someone quoted excellent research about this upthread. Then, even if covid becomes endemic it won't be more dangerous


But what if there is accumulative damage with each reinfection?

 What about the age bias? Covid hits harder the older you are. Reinfections happen on more vulnerable subjects every year.

Last but not least. Mutation.

Covid 19 is not even close to being endemic yet. Once everyone is in this cycle, SARS-CoV-2 will be mutating at a rate order of magnitudes greater than it is now. In a world with an endemic SARS-CoV-2, many mutations will be harmless and some will cause massive death spikes in particular locations.


All because people are afraid of wearing masks or getting a vaccine. That is not acceptable.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10747 on: January 16, 2021, 11:41:34 AM »
Hackers Alter Stolen Regulatory Data to Sow Mistrust In COVID-19 Vaccine
https://arstechnica.com/information-technology/2021/01/hackers-alter-stolen-regulatory-data-to-sow-mistrust-in-covid-19-vaccine/
https://apnews.com/article/public-health-europe-coronavirus-pandemic-coronavirus-vaccine-56efa8e104f0509fa48381fce00b0de6

LONDON (AP) — The European Union’s drug regulator said Friday that COVID-19 vaccine documents stolen from its servers by hackers have been not only leaked to the web, but “manipulated.”

The European Medicines Agency said that an ongoing investigation showed that hackers obtained emails and documents from November related to the evaluation of experimental coronavirus vaccines.

“Some of the correspondence has been manipulated by the perpetrators prior to publication in a way which could undermine trust in vaccines,” the Netherlands-based agency said.

“We have seen that some of the correspondence has been published not in its integrity and original form and, or with, comments or additions by the perpetrators.”

https://www.yarix.com/news/documenti-riservati-di-ema-sul-vaccino-pfizer-trovati-nel-dark-web/

Yarix said “the intention behind the leak by cybercriminals is certain: to cause significant damage to the reputation and credibility of EMA and Pfizer.” The dark Web post, titled “Astonishing fraud! Evil Pfffizer! Fake vaccines!” included a link to a forum on a Russian-language website.

Cybersecurity consultant Lukasz Olejnik said he believed the intention was far more broad.

“I fear this release has a significant potential of sowing distrust in the EMA process, the vaccines, and vaccination in Europe in general,” he said. “While it is unclear as to who may be behind this operation, it is evident that someone determined allocated resources to it.”

“This is an unprecedented operation targeting the validation of pharmaceutical material, with potentially broad negative effects on the health of Europeans if it leads to undermining trust in the vaccine,” Olejnik added.

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/cyberattack-ema-update-5
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10748 on: January 16, 2021, 12:40:07 PM »
Could there be a reason blood donors in Brazil are more likely (or less likely) to have been exposed? Like they are more sociable? Could that affect the statistics?
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Général de GuerreLasse

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #10749 on: January 16, 2021, 12:44:20 PM »
In February 2020, I was still a lurker, and I was reading this thread with great interest. Thanks to many of you, I think in particular (but there are many more) of Tom_Mazanec, Vox_Mundi, Archimid and Sam who fought hard to make us understand the gravity of the situation and propose solutions. Thanks to your work I was able to prepare very early. Being a very enthusiastic person, I equipped myself without measure, which then allowed me to distribute many liters of hydroalcoholic gel, nitril or latex gloves, masks, wipes and many cleaning products effective against viruses to two doctors in my city, to a group of liberal nurses working in the city, to nurses working in hospitals, to neighbors, to delivery men and of course to my family. And I am sure that many ASIF members and lurkers have done the same thanks to you my friends.

I don't know where all these virus mutations will lead us but I just wanted to thank you for all of this. I don't know if it was very effective, but the look on the faces of the people to whom I distributed all this material in February and March 2020 when they had nothing, well it was worth it.

One last little message: Sam we miss you a lot and we still need your advice, come back soon!

PS: Again a last little detail, to those who proposed bourbon and hot whisky with honey and orange, I regret to tell you that it is not very effective against covid, but if you add coffee and whipped cream it becomes very good.  ;D
« Last Edit: January 16, 2021, 01:30:02 PM by Général de GuerreLasse »
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