COVID-19

[vox_mundi]

Mayo Clinic Study Suggests Efficacy of 1st Pfizer, Moderna Shot Increases With Time
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-study-suggests-efficacy-of-1st-pfizer-moderna-shot-increases-with-time/

The Minnesota-based clinic, in a study of 31,000 people in four US states who received at least one vaccine shot, found the inoculations were 75 percent effective 15 days after the first shot, and around 83% effective 36 days after the first shot; the figure climbs to 89% for people who received both doses



FDA-authorized COVID-19 vaccines are effective per real-world evidence synthesized across a multi-state health system
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.15.21251623v1.full-text

[zufall]

Not to say that seroprevalence isn't playing a role already, but from the previous to the last week there is no more comprehensive decline in cases in Europe (see attached table). Absolute numbers of new cases per million are much lower than the peak in most countries, but still quite high compared to the peak of last spring.

In Germany, the discussion about openings has already gone into full swing. Nursery and elementary schools will open in my province tomorrow. But with the recent stall / rebound that could be quite short-lived.

[vox_mundi]

US Approaches 500,000 COVID-19 Deaths

To illustrate this milestone of half a million deaths, The New York Times published a front-page graphic running the length of the page, with each small point representing a dead American.



The bottom of the column, which represents the deaths of recent months, is particularly dark and almost uniformly black.

[El Cid]

there has been a small survey in Croatia (non-governmental, of course, because the government doesn't want to know about seroprevalence) and preliminary results show that 40% of the population have been infected with SARS-CoV-2.

I very much doubt that 40% number. All seroprevalence studies pointot IFR still being cca 1%.

The UK does a weekly study on antibodies:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodydatafortheuk/3february2021

For example they show England to have cca 15,3% antibodies. Enfland's population is 56 M, so 15% of that is cca  8 M. With a 100 000 dead, that is 1,25% IFR.

You can also see that at the end of summer 6% had antibodies, so that is a rise of 9% during the fall/winter period, that is 5 million new infected during the same period. and cca 65 thousand dead. So even during the second wave it was still 1,3%

Northern Ireland: 9,2%, ie. 173 000 infected. Dead: 2029. IFR: 1,17%

Spain did a study in December, the result is similar: cca 1% IFR.

Croatia has 5500 dead, so no way have they got anything above 600 000 infected. With a population of 4 million, that is only 15% serprevalence. That is pretty consistent with what C/E Europe has by the way: 15-20%.

40% is a pipedream.

[Neven]

It's impossible to argue with that.

[silkman]

First population based evidence of reduction by the first dose of both the Pfizer and AZ Oxford vaccines of severe disease requiring hospitalisation has been published today by Public Health Scotland:

https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/news/2021/february/vaccine-linked-to-reduction-in-risk-of-covid-19-admissions-to-hospitals/

There’s not a lot of data in the report but the results being reported for both vaccines would seem to be immensely encouraging:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2021/feb/22/uk-covid-live-lockdown-schools-vaccines-boris-johnson?page=with:block-603377348f08bdbed283de23#block-603377348f08bdbed283de23


“The Covid vaccination programme has been linked to a substantial reduction in hospital admissions, PA Media is reporting. The PA story goes on:

Researchers examined coronavirus hospital admissions in Scotland among people who have had their first jab and compared them with those who had not yet received a dose of the vaccine.

Scientists from the University of Edinburgh, the University of Strathclyde and Public Health Scotland examined data on people who had received either the Pfizer/BioNTech jab or the one developed by experts at the University of Oxford with AstraZeneca.

By the fourth week after receiving the initial dose, the Pfizer and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines were shown to reduce the risk of hospital admission from Covid-19 by up to 85% and 94%, respectively, they found.”

Fingers crossed this proves to be the case.

[El Cid]

First population based evidence of reduction by the first dose of both the Pfizer and AZ Oxford vaccines of severe disease requiring hospitalisation has been published today by Public Health Scotland:

By the fourth week after receiving the initial dose, the Pfizer and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines were shown to reduce the risk of hospital admission from Covid-19 by up to 85% and 94%, respectively, they found.”

Now, the above is somewhat misleading. I read the report and while it is true that for days (after vaccination) 28-34 the effect peaks at 84% BUT then it goes down to 58% for days 42+.

also, there was no data for 35+ days for AstraZeneca but surprisingly Az had greater efficacy (in avoiding hospitalizations) then Pfizer for days 7-35.

From the study it seems that the effect peaks at around 3-4 weeks and then wanes. The good news is that in 80+ yr olds there is a uniform 80% reduction in hospitalizations

[silkman]

By the fourth week after receiving the initial dose, the Pfizer and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines were shown to reduce the risk of hospital admission from Covid-19 by up to 85% and 94%, respectively, they found.”


Now, the above is somewhat misleading. I read the report and while it is true that for days (after vaccination) 28-34 the effect peaks at 84% BUT then it goes down to 58% for days 42+.

Agreed. As you say there’s no data on AZ beyond Day 34 and the data on Pfizer is also pretty thin. The UK press has been buzzing with the news but it seems sensible to reserve judgement until they have data through the second dose and beyond.

Having had the AZ vaccine first dose three weeks ago I have a vested interest. I’m happy to take it as a positive straw in the wind.

[glennbuck]

First population based evidence of reduction by the first dose of both the Pfizer and AZ Oxford vaccines of severe disease requiring hospitalisation has been published today by Public Health Scotland:

By the fourth week after receiving the initial dose, the Pfizer and Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccines were shown to reduce the risk of hospital admission from Covid-19 by up to 85% and 94%, respectively, they found.”

Now, the above is somewhat misleading. I read the report and while it is true that for days (after vaccination) 28-34 the effect peaks at 84% BUT then it goes down to 58% for days 42+.

also, there was no data for 35+ days for AstraZeneca but surprisingly Az had greater efficacy (in avoiding hospitalizations) then Pfizer for days 7-35.

From the study it seems that the effect peaks at around 3-4 weeks and then wanes. The good news is that in 80+ yr olds there is a uniform 80% reduction in hospitalizations

Do you have link to the chart, can not find it here on links.

[Rodius]

Concerning the Pfizer vaccine and clarifying my own understanding.....

The vaccine has about 84% effectiveness at peak (between days 28 and 35) then drops to 58% effective.

If I am right in thinking the effectiveness drops fast and is short lived, then this vaccine isn't going to do a lot about the pandemic unless it is administered multiple times per year..... which isn't going to happen given how hard it is to get the first one done.

I hope I am misunderstanding this somehow.

[El Cid]

Concerning the Pfizer vaccine and clarifying my own understanding.....

The vaccine has about 84% effectiveness at peak (between days 28 and 35) then drops to 58% effective.

If I am right in thinking the effectiveness drops fast and is short lived, then this vaccine isn't going to do a lot about the pandemic unless it is administered multiple times per year..... which isn't going to happen given how hard it is to get the first one done.

I hope I am misunderstanding this somehow.

glennbuck,

the link is in silkman's post:
https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/news/2021/february/vaccine-linked-to-reduction-in-risk-of-covid-19-admissions-to-hospitals/

Rodius,

There are a couple of things to consider here
 1/ I read the Pfizer phase 1/2 study. That showed that after the first dose you have antibodies in similar amounts as if you caught COVID "naturally". BUT, after the second dose, you have more than 10x as many antibodies, which makes it likely that mRNS vaccines give you longer immunity than COVID itself
2/ A few months ago I quoted on this thread a coronavirus study, where immunity was examined to 4 coronavirus strains that cause the common cold. Median immunity was 1 year but lasted form 3 months to anywhere 4years.
3/ Immunity from MERS and SARS 1 is many years according to most studies
4/ The Scottish study showed that for the elderly, hospitalization rates were very much reduced on all examined timeframes

So my conclusions are (not necessarily true but these are my best guesses):

- Natural imminuty to COVID is likely 1-2 years
- 2shot mRNS induced immunity is at least 1 year, but likely more, possibly 2-5
- 1shot mRNS is a stopgap measure and helps reduce pressure on hospitals but not enogh in itself to create herdimmunity

[Richard Rathbone]

Not looking good for the decision to delay 2nd shot on Pfizer. The news coverage is really bullish, but to me those numbers say that those in the high risk groups that had the Pfizer jab, need their second ones asap.

Not looking good for protection against hospitalisation/death being better than protection against disease. Its a lot better than nothing, but those numbers aren't good enough to stop another 50-100k mortality wave when all restrictions come off.

[oren]

In Israel the huge wave of first doses did not do much in terms of national infection and hospitalization statistics. Of course this was also affected by behavioral developments in the unvaccinated cohort and by the emergence of the UK variant. Also quite a few peoole were infected, hospitalized and died after receiving their first dose. The following wave of second doses did make a dent in the national statistics, and also received stamps of approval from studies tracking individual persons. My intuitive take on all this is that the first jab is not effective enough on its own, though I'm sure it partially helps.
Note: this is all only relevant to Pfizer.

[Jim Hunt]

Not looking good for the decision to delay 2nd shot on Pfizer.

I had to drive 15 miles to a big marquee to get it, but as an old age pensioner under the age of 70 I've just had my 1st Oxford/AstraZeneca  jab at the Royal Cornwall Showground in Wadebridge.

Just as well they gave me a badge, because the evidence on my arm is (currently!?) almost invisible.

My 2nd shot is already booked for early May.

[kassy]

Data from the Netherlands:

Vaccinations in care homes started january 18th.
On Jan 19th there were 800 locations with active infections.
5 weeks later this went down to 464 locations.

Positive tests decreased from 205 per day to 89 in the last week.

Death decreased from 40 to 16 per day.

This group received the Pfizer vaccine with the second dose administered 3 to 6 weeks after the first.

Another proof that vaccines work is that there is a decline of cases in this group while there is none in the general population.

https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6118083/vaccinatiecampagne-lijkt-effect-te-hebben-situatie-verpleeghuizen-sterk-verbeterd.html

It will be interesting to see the same data a month on when the whole group has had 2 shots.

[nadir]

In Israel the huge wave of first doses did not do much in terms of national infection and hospitalization statistics. Of course this was also affected by behavioral developments in the unvaccinated cohort and by the emergence of the UK variant. Also quite a few peoole were infected, hospitalized and died after receiving their first dose. The following wave of second doses did make a dent in the national statistics, and also received stamps of approval from studies tracking individual persons. My intuitive take on all this is that the first jab is not effective enough on its own, though I'm sure it partially helps.
Note: this is all only relevant to Pfizer.

Dr Campbell proposes (with data) two extra explanations on the apparent delay of vaccination global effects: 1) that the first shot takes about three weeks to cause positive results 2) on week 1 after first shot, even a slight negative effect is observed, most probably due to the “viva la vida loca” effect of a small but significant fraction of population, really wanting to leave COVID-19 behind as soon as possible.

Actually there is mounting evidence that single-shot vaccination holds protection for many weeks (after third week) making possible, even convenient, to delay second shot.

First 12 minutes of the video below.

[nadir]

Fauci speaks. When are we going to agree that, while he is a respected doctor, he is an idiot (or disingenuous) (mis)communicator?

he that once misled public with his “masks are unnecessary” now is warning vaccination will not end present dystopia.

I understand some prevention will follow massive vaccinations for a while. But the end objective is to get rid of this pandemic, the sooner the better... right?

Me thinks this polished eminent but kinda arrogant and condescending doctor is very comfortable within the establishment, and the establishment is wanting more “bind them all in the darkness” since it seems a growingly lucrative situation for a few.

[Rodius]

Fauci speaks. When are we going to agree that, while he is a respected doctor, he is an idiot (or disingenuous) (mis)communicator?

he that once misled public with his “masks are unnecessary” now is warning vaccination will not end present dystopia.

I understand some prevention will follow massive vaccinations for a while. But the end objective is to get rid of this pandemic, the sooner the better... right?

Me thinks this polished eminent but kinda arrogant and condescending doctor is very comfortable within the establishment, and the establishment is wanting more “bind them all in the darkness” since it seems a growingly lucrative situation for a few.

Fauci was under stress from Trump and the administration the entire time.
I was unaware that he ever said don't worry about masks.... but then it needs to be established when he said that and the state of the pandemic when he said it. For example, if he said it in Late Jan. early Feb, then masks may have been optional.
But my mid Feb onward, it was becoming clear the virus was going to run out of control so masks would have made a difference.

Context matters as does the timing.

He was stuck in an aggressive, anti-action administration and almost certainly had to word his speeches and public advice carefully in order to keep his job while getting as much of the message out as possible. It is an unenviable position to be in. He sits on the chair of doctor and a political position where what he wants to say and what he can say differ.

Anyway, concerning the vaccine not ending the pandemic, he is correct. Covid isn't going anywhere, but the vaccine will reduce the damage it does while restricting its growth. There is absolutely nothing incorrect about his statement in that regard.

*edit*
Here is an article providing a timeline of masks and the US thinking about using them. It isn't a simple thing when you look deeper into it.....

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackbrewster/2020/10/20/is-trump-right-that-fauci-discouraged-wearing-masks/?sh=41ebeedd4969

[nadir]

[...]

Anyway, concerning the vaccine not ending the pandemic, he is correct. Covid isn't going anywhere, but the vaccine will reduce the damage it does while restricting its growth. There is absolutely nothing incorrect about his statement in that regard.

That may be true, but the way Fauci expresses it is very disheartening.
Perhaps I should have focused on how he fails to properly send the message, whatever ulterior motive he may have.

He’s basically presenting the current dystopian life as the post-vaccination future.
Really is he 100% right? I hope not.

[Tom_Mazanec]

California's coronavirus strain looks increasingly dangerous: 'The devil is already here'
https://news.yahoo.com/californias-coronavirus-strain-looks-increasingly-130055544.html

A coronavirus variant that probably emerged in May and surged to become the dominant strain in California not only spreads more readily than its predecessors but also evades antibodies generated by COVID-19 vaccines or prior infection and is associated with severe illness and death, researchers said.
In a study that helps explain the state’s dramatic holiday surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths — and portends further trouble ahead — scientists at UC San Francisco said the cluster of mutations that characterizes the homegrown strain should mark it as a “variant of concern” on par with those from the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil.

[Shared Humanity]

California's coronavirus strain looks increasingly dangerous: 'The devil is already here'
https://news.yahoo.com/californias-coronavirus-strain-looks-increasingly-130055544.html

A coronavirus variant that probably emerged in May and surged to become the dominant strain in California not only spreads more readily than its predecessors but also evades antibodies generated by COVID-19 vaccines or prior infection and is associated with severe illness and death, researchers said.
In a study that helps explain the state’s dramatic holiday surge in COVID-19 cases and deaths — and portends further trouble ahead — scientists at UC San Francisco said the cluster of mutations that characterizes the homegrown strain should mark it as a “variant of concern” on par with those from the United Kingdom, South Africa and Brazil.

I think I'll still listen to Fauci as an expert on this thing despite how others here might feel. Pretty sure he is not trying to make a buck off this thing. He has been an expert since the HIV epidemic in the 1980's.

[vox_mundi]

Moderna S. Africa Variant-Specific Vaccine Ready for Testing: Company
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-02-moderna-africa-variant-specific-vaccine-ready.html

US biotech firm Moderna said Wednesday that doses of its new COVID vaccine candidate aimed at the South African coronavirus variant had been shipped to the US National Institutes of Health for testing.

"We look forward to beginning the clinical study of our variant booster and are grateful for the NIH's continued collaboration to combat this pandemic," said CEO Stephane Bancel.

[Rodius]

[...]

Anyway, concerning the vaccine not ending the pandemic, he is correct. Covid isn't going anywhere, but the vaccine will reduce the damage it does while restricting its growth. There is absolutely nothing incorrect about his statement in that regard.

That may be true, but the way Fauci expresses it is very disheartening.
Perhaps I should have focused on how he fails to properly send the message, whatever ulterior motive he may have.

He’s basically presenting the current dystopian life as the post-vaccination future.
Really is he 100% right? I hope not.

Given the difficulty of making a virus extinct (Smallpox is the only successful extinction we achieved and that one was easy relative to Covid) it is safe to assume that Covid is here to stay.
Masks are likely to become the norm more often than not.
Outbreaks will happen, mutations will happen, vaccines will play catch up, and round and round we go until, hopefully, Covid weakens itself to the point of being mild enough to not stress about.

Dystopian life..... the way I see this panning out over the coming years is this.
1 - Coivd mutates, vaccines made (probably quicker than the first one)
2 - outbreaks happen, short sharp lockdowns happen to contain it locally. In Australia this approach lasts about 4 to 6 days then the local area is reopened
3 - masks are worn when occupying indoor public places if an outbreak is close enough to warrant it.
4 - travel will be restricted and probably require a Covid Card of some sort to prove you have been vaccinated or have immunity.

This is hardly a nightmare situation.
But I think this is a likely situation, especially since Covid has plenty of places to hide and grow and mutate around the world. I seriously doubt we could get rid of it, ever, so containment is the answer.

Life, effectively, will return to an almost pre-covid situation..... and we can get back to warming up the planet just like we did before Covid came along.

[oren]

Finally, a peer reviewed study about the Pfizer vaccine effectiveness in Israel, published in the NEJM. Seems like a well designed study confirming the randomized trial results in a real-life setting. A good read.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2101765?articleTools=true

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND
As mass vaccination campaigns against coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) commence worldwide, vaccine effectiveness needs to be assessed for a range of outcomes across diverse populations in a noncontrolled setting. In this study, data from Israel’s largest health care organization were used to evaluate the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine.

METHODS
All persons who were newly vaccinated during the period from December 20, 2020, to February 1, 2021, were matched to unvaccinated controls in a 1:1 ratio according to demographic and clinical characteristics. Study outcomes included documented infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), symptomatic Covid-19, Covid-19–related hospitalization, severe illness, and death. We estimated vaccine effectiveness for each outcome as one minus the risk ratio, using the Kaplan–Meier estimator.

RESULTS
Each study group included 596,618 persons. Estimated vaccine effectiveness for the study outcomes at days 14 through 20 after the first dose and at 7 or more days after the second dose was as follows: for documented infection, 46% (95% confidence interval [CI], 40 to 51) and 92% (95% CI, 88 to 95); for symptomatic Covid-19, 57% (95% CI, 50 to 63) and 94% (95% CI, 87 to 98); for hospitalization, 74% (95% CI, 56 to 86) and 87% (95% CI, 55 to 100); and for severe disease, 62% (95% CI, 39 to 80) and 92% (95% CI, 75 to 100), respectively. Estimated effectiveness in preventing death from Covid-19 was 72% (95% CI, 19 to 100) for days 14 through 20 after the first dose. Estimated effectiveness in specific subpopulations assessed for documented infection and symptomatic Covid-19 was consistent across age groups, with potentially slightly lower effectiveness in persons with multiple coexisting conditions.

CONCLUSIONS
This study in a nationwide mass vaccination setting suggests that the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine is effective for a wide range of Covid-19–related outcomes, a finding consistent with that of the randomized trial.

[oren]

Current distribution of hospitalized persons in severe condition in Israel, by age group:
Over 60 - 56.5%
50-60 - 19.7%
40-50 - 11.8%
30-40 - 7.3%
20-30 - 3.7%
<20 - 1%

This distribution is affected by the differential vaccination rate among the age groups, and probably a difference in behavior as well, but still gives pause to those who might think Covid is only dangerous to old people.

[bbr2315]

Current distribution of hospitalized persons in severe condition in Israel, by age group:
Over 60 - 56.5%
50-60 - 19.7%
40-50 - 11.8%
30-40 - 7.3%
20-30 - 3.7%
<20 - 1%

This distribution is affected by the differential vaccination rate among the age groups, and probably a difference in behavior as well, but still gives pause to those who might think Covid is only dangerous to old people.

It is also dangerous to obese people and those with co-morbidities, we have established this.

I am leaving NY State for the first time since "the happening" began next week, and I am very excited to be traveling once more.

[Richard Rathbone]

Finally, a peer reviewed study about the Pfizer vaccine effectiveness in Israel, published in the NEJM. Seems like a well designed study confirming the randomized trial results in a real-life setting.

Those confidence ranges are pretty broad, but it does seem to confirm the finding from Scotland that getting the Pfizer booster is pretty important for protection against severe outcomes and the UK ought to be giving the second Pfizer shot to the over 90s, not the first Pfizer shot to the 65-70s, which is what is happening at the moment.

[El Cid]

It seems to me from the study that older people's and those with multiple comorbidities have a weaker immune system and therefore the first shot is not very effective in itself.
Interestingly, the Scottish study showed the opposite: 80+ people got strong immunity from one shot that did not wane

[Archimid]

Given the difficulty of making a virus extinct (Smallpox is the only successful extinction we achieved and that one was easy relative to Covid) it is safe to assume that Covid is here to stay.

Remember SARS 1. What happened to it? It went "extinct". I think the same will happen in regions with high vaccination rates or very smart vaccination. C19 will go the same way as SARS 1.

In looking for links for the final destination of SARS1, I stumbled upon the following link, looks interesting:

SARS: how a global epidemic was stopped

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2636331/

First: “transparency is the best policy”.
Second: “twenty-first century science played a relatively small role in controlling SARS; nineteenth-century techniques continued to prove their value”
Third: “animal husbandry and marketing practices seriously affect human health”.

[Rodius]

Given the difficulty of making a virus extinct (Smallpox is the only successful extinction we achieved and that one was easy relative to Covid) it is safe to assume that Covid is here to stay.

Remember SARS 1. What happened to it? It went "extinct". I think the same will happen in regions with high vaccination rates or very smart vaccination. C19 will go the same way as SARS 1.

In looking for links for the final destination of SARS1, I stumbled upon the following link, looks interesting:

SARS: how a global epidemic was stopped

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2636331/

First: “transparency is the best policy”.
Second: “twenty-first century science played a relatively small role in controlling SARS; nineteenth-century techniques continued to prove their value”
Third: “animal husbandry and marketing practices seriously affect human health”.

That is true..... but SARS 1 never became endemic like Covid has.

It was contained and contacts were traced etc etc, and most importantly, not many people caught it.

So the count is two... Smallpox and SARS 1.... and rinderpest if we want to broaden that out to other species.

So, anyway, 3 viruses removed by our efforts. One human virus that was easy to track and trace, the other a cattle disease, and SARS which was caught early (and we got lucky).

Covid is everywhere, it will have reserves somewhere all the time now. It can travel for days without anyone knowing. The vaccines are good but not good enough and the fight to get enough people to get the vaccine will be difficult and getting it administered globally in a timely manner is next to impossible if the goal is to make it extinct.

While I would love to think we can get rid of it, I strongly suspect that Covid is here to stay regardless. Mask up and prepare for that to be a normal thing every time Covid pops up from one of the reserves.

[El Cid]

Another thought on virus extinction:

These mRNS vaccines are very effective. Considering that normal flu vaccines have a real life efficacy of 30-60% only (CDC data), maybe after COVID, vaccinemakers could create mRNS flu vaccines putting an end to the flu season once and for all. Any thoughts?

[Archimid]

That is true..... but SARS 1 never became endemic like Covid has.

SARS-CoV-2 is not endemic anywhere in the world. There are parts of the world with a high probability of infection (Brasil, California, UK), but that probability is dropping fast now that vaccines are gathering momentum.

I expect some locations to soon drop to 0 new cases a day and C19 cases will not emerge again unless travel-related contacts happen. It will seem like magic because many experts are under the impression that infection is a high probability event. It isn't. Infection is a low probability event. As the number of potential carriers drops, infection events that were possible with enough numbers, are no longer possible.

I think the vaccinated will protect scared little anti-vaxers better than they expect.

[kassy]

These mRNS vaccines are very effective. Considering that normal flu vaccines have a real life efficacy of 30-60% only (CDC data), maybe after COVID, vaccinemakers could create mRNS flu vaccines putting an end to the flu season once and for all. Any thoughts?

Yes.

first of a general point. Be careful what you wish for. For allergies there is the hygiene hypothesis which states that growing up with too little contacts with germs leads to allergies because the immune system is understimulated. We evolved with them so if you remove them the body system misses them.

The same would be true for pathogens. Yes you try to knock out the really bad ones but there are many we live with. The common cold is usually just annoying. There is also not one type of virus that causes them but a whole variety which also contributes to partial protection against novel outbreaks like Covid.

Also there is not just one flu so the flu vaccine is a mix aiming for 2 A and 1 B variant or 1 A and 2 B but the choice of which targets to use for the next year must be made in advance so one or more might change resulting in a year where the flu vaccine mix is less efficient.

The age distribution in the 1918 H1N1 pandemic hints at partial protection in some older age groups, those who had survived the earlier version of flu A going round, possibly some H3 type.

Since there are plenty of natural reservoirs for influenza A you might not want a population that is cured of flu.

For Covid just repeating vaccinations should cover it. And then we can go back to a more normal way of life. Don´t let them shove dystopian BS on you. Once *everybody* is vaccinated we can do all the things we did although more masks during winter season (a la Japan) would be a bonus.

[Jim Hunt]

The UK ought to be giving the second Pfizer shot to the over 90s, not the first Pfizer shot to the 65-70s, which is what is happening at the moment.

Speaking as a 65-70 year old my first shot here in North Cornwall was Oxford/AZN. Ditto for my brother in Brighton.

Where are all those Pfizer shots still being offered to my age group?

[harpy]

There's already evidence that the original Pfizer drug cannot protect against multiple new variants.  See the neutralizing antibody study previously posted. 

I agree with @Rodius, this is permanent.

Don't let the optimism trick ones self into a false sense of hope. 

As soon as all restrictions are lifted and the new mutations get a foot hold in society, the lock downs will begin anew. 

[Richard Rathbone]

The UK ought to be giving the second Pfizer shot to the over 90s, not the first Pfizer shot to the 65-70s, which is what is happening at the moment.

Speaking as a 65-70 year old my first shot here in North Cornwall was Oxford/AZN. Ditto for my brother in Brighton.

Where are all those Pfizer shots still being offered to my age group?

Most of the UK jabs are AZ, I'd guess the Pfizer ones are in a few major urban sites, but I've no idea what the actual geographical distribution is. Wales does seem to be getting a move on with the second doses, but as far as I know its not particular to Pfizer. Yesterday about 50% of jabs in Wales were 2nd doses but just 5% in England. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

[gerontocrat]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

World Data
Total recorded deaths from covid just passed the 2.5 million mark.

On a positive note thee number of active cases is in decline - i.e. recoveries ecceed new cases.
The -ves are that the daily death toll and daily new cases have stalled - i.e. no longer in decline.

Italy Data
I find this the most disturbing of the data I look at  as after a terrible beginning it looked as if Italy had got its act together. But now
- the decline in active cases has stalled,
- the decline in daily deaths has stalled,
- daily new cases are increasing ; significantly in the last week or so.

I get the feeling that progress can only be really made when the global vaccination programme increases -  perhaps by an order of magnitude. and even then, variants etc etc.


click images to enlarge

[kassy]

Invisible killer: fossil fuels caused 8.7m deaths globally in 2018, research finds

So that is more then three times as much and happening YOY but that is just the normal fall out of our capitalist culture so we worry about the 2.5m deaths more because they are more likely to touch us?

[Andreas T]

....
Most of the UK jabs are AZ, I'd guess the Pfizer ones are in a few major urban sites, but I've no idea what the actual geographical distribution is. Wales does seem to be getting a move on with the second doses, but as far as I know its not particular to Pfizer. Yesterday about 50% of jabs in Wales were 2nd doses but just 5% in England. https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations

I have had the letter inviting me to book the vaccination. It seems there is no choice or information about which shot is offered, maybe the smaller sites (pharmacies) give the AZ shot which does not require such low storage temperature?

[Rodius]

That is true..... but SARS 1 never became endemic like Covid has.

SARS-CoV-2 is not endemic anywhere in the world. There are parts of the world with a high probability of infection (Brasil, California, UK), but that probability is dropping fast now that vaccines are gathering momentum.

I expect some locations to soon drop to 0 new cases a day and C19 cases will not emerge again unless travel-related contacts happen. It will seem like magic because many experts are under the impression that infection is a high probability event. It isn't. Infection is a low probability event. As the number of potential carriers drops, infection events that were possible with enough numbers, are no longer possible.

I think the vaccinated will protect scared little anti-vaxers better than they expect.

I hope you are right.

But you neglect Africa.
It isn't being contained there at all. No tracking, no tracing, no real attempts to contain it (barring efforts in a few countries). Africa is essentially invisible to everyone other than the health care workers, mortuaries, funeral homes and gravediggers.

India does appear much better.

South America isn't containing it or fighting it half as hard as they should.

The US is only just now doing something about it.

Somewhere in there is going to be a reserve of Covid until the entire lot is vaccinated and with a coordinated effort to reduce the spread.
It is possible, I suppose, but can you honestly see a global, coordinated effort to remove Covid for good?
And even then, Covid will have varients that skip the vaccine so we play the catch up game as with the flu season.

I will stick with my version of the Covid future for now. If there is anything new that looks like a game changer I will change my opinion, but right now, Covid is here to stay, it will be annoying but, hopefully, we wont have a repeat of last year.... although since the contagiousness increases it isn't off the cards that a repeat is possible.
Unless Govts finally start to take it seriously.

The economic impacts can be contained when the outbreaks are found early and local lockdowns happen.... as I mentioned before, Australia and other countries do that every time and they tend to last less than one week. We can handle the virus and the economic impacts if it is managed properly.
This mess is mostly a political one and the US is the star show in that regard.

[Jim Hunt]

Maybe the smaller sites (pharmacies) give the AZ shot which does not require such low storage temperature?

IIRC Pfizer have relaxed their storage temperature requirements recently?

My jab took place at one of the two mass vaccination centres in Cornwall. Not a small site, but "No photographs or videos permitted"!

[oren]

Another study from Israel, by the same organization (CHS), not peer reviewed yet.

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-research-british-variant-increases-risk-of-serious-covid-by-70-percent-660226

The study compared a group of about 60,000 people infected with coronavirus between October 1 and December 19, 2020 – before the start of the vaccination campaign and before Israel identified its first cases of the variant – to a group of 50,000 unvaccinated people who contracted coronavirus between January 17 and February 7. During this later period, the Health Ministry estimated that the (UK) variant was the cause of 80% of new infections.

In the first period, 1% of people aged 30-50, 3.7% between 50-59 and 14.5% of those 60 and deteriorated within a 14-day period and experienced a serious case of the disease. In contrast, during the later period, 1.3% people ages 30-50, 5.5% between 50 and 60 and 19% of those 60 and older became serious patients within 14 days.

[glennbuck]

Global case decline has reversed. Especially in Europe where the more contagious #B117 UK variant is driving faster spread.

[Richard Rathbone]

Another study from Israel, by the same organization (CHS), not peer reviewed yet.

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-research-british-variant-increases-risk-of-serious-covid-by-70-percent-660226

The study compared a group of about 60,000 people infected with coronavirus between October 1 and December 19, 2020 – before the start of the vaccination campaign and before Israel identified its first cases of the variant – to a group of 50,000 unvaccinated people who contracted coronavirus between January 17 and February 7. During this later period, the Health Ministry estimated that the (UK) variant was the cause of 80% of new infections.

In the first period, 1% of people aged 30-50, 3.7% between 50-59 and 14.5% of those 60 and deteriorated within a 14-day period and experienced a serious case of the disease. In contrast, during the later period, 1.3% people ages 30-50, 5.5% between 50 and 60 and 19% of those 60 and older became serious patients within 14 days.

Looks similar to UK findings. Its more transmissible because the virus builds up to higher levels and takes longer to clear. That also makes it nastier, with higher proportions of serious cases and deaths. Its also distorting the UK infection survey data, because people stay positive for longer and that's changed the relationship between incidence and prevalence.

[be cause]

Worldometer shows no deaths for 17th Feb .. any ideas why ?

[Jim Hunt]

Not a small site, but "No photographs or videos permitted"!

P.S. However it seems someone was allowed to take this picture of the other similar facility near Truro:



https://www.inyourarea.co.uk/news/volunteers-wanted-for-covid-19-mass-vaccination-sites-in-cornwall/

[vox_mundi]

Seafaring Nightmare: Aerosol Transmission Drove SARS-CoV-2's Spread Aboard Diamond Princess Cruise Ship
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2021-02-seafaring-nightmare-aerosol-transmission-drove.html

New modeling research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, illustrates not only how SARS-CoV-2 likely spread among passengers and crew, but how the Diamond Princess may serve as an object lesson for "floating incubators" and other built environments and airborne viruses.

Environmental health investigators at Harvard University's T.H. Chan School of Public Health and their collaborators have demonstrated that airborne transmission accounted for more than 50 percent of the disease spread aboard the cruise ship. Inhalation of virus-laden aerosols by passengers and crew occurred during close contact and at longer range, the scientists found.

Writing in the PNAS, Drs. Parham Azimi, Joseph G. Allen and colleagues underscore that it wasn't aerosols alone that fueled a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak that affected hundreds aboard the luxury liner. Other routes of transmission contributed to the contagion, including fomite transmission, the spread of infection through contact with contaminated objects.

... To evaluate the importance of multiple transmission routes of SARS-CoV-2 aboard the cruise ship, the team developed a modeling framework that utilized reams of detailed information from the Diamond Princess outbreak. The Harvard environmental health scientists modeled 21,600 scenarios "to generate a matrix of solutions across a full range of assumptions for eight unknown or uncertain epidemic and mechanistic transmission factors," they wrote in PNAS.

Aerosols smaller than approximately 10 micrometers, which were likely involved in all three modes of transmission—short- long-range and fomite transmission—likely contributed to more than half of the overall disease spread aboard the ship. Both large droplets and small aerosols contributed equally to transmission before passengers were quarantined, while small aerosols dominated transmission afterward.



... The new research by the Harvard team adds new context to a CDC investigation that was conducted aboard the Diamond Princess a few weeks after it docked and passengers had disembarked. CDC scientists clad in hazmat suits boarded the star-crossed vessel and took biological samples as part of their outbreak assessment. There was extensive evidence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA throughout passenger cabins, in hallways and other areas of the massive cruise liner. The inescapable presence of coronavirus RNA suggested explosive spread throughout the ship.

... Yet as detailed as their modeling study is—and it is possibly the most extensive and exhaustive of the Diamond Princess outbreak to date—there are still important questions that have yet to be answered. For one, how long do viral particles remain viable aerially?

"That is one of the biological factors that is very uncertain," Azimi said. "In one of the most widely cited articles about the viability of SARS-CoV-2 [by virologist Neeltje van Doremalen of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases] it is estimated that the half-life of SARS-CoV-2 in the air is approximately one hour. This means that it would take about one hour for half of the infectious viruses to lose their viability. After two hours, 75 percent of viruses would lose their viability in indoor air, and so on."

The modeling research by the Harvard-led team emphasizes that fomite transmission apparently played a role on the ship, albeit much smaller than aerosol spread. However, that finding suggests fomite transmission should not be shunted aside as possible risk factor.

"Although the contribution of fomite transmission is low it is still plausible, Azimi said. "It is important to notice that when we use our best estimates of model inputs, calculated from our PNAS paper, in other environments, such as school classrooms, the contribution of fomite transmission is about 5 percent. This contribution is low but it is not zero. Therefore, we do not recommend that people stop washing their hands."





Parham Azimi et al. Mechanistic transmission modeling of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess cruise ship demonstrates the importance of aerosol transmission, [/I]Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences[/I] (2021)
https://www.pnas.org/content/118/8/e2015482118

[zufall]

A followup on my post from last week on the situation in Europe, when there was a mixed picture where cases still declined in some countries but stalled or even increased in others. Now cases are increasing almost everywhere, the exeptions being mostly countries that were hit the hardest in the last weeks.

[Richard Rathbone]

Possibly weather related? The UK had a blip of a week at -10% and now looks to be going back to its post lockdown rate of -25% which correlates pretty well with the "Beast from the East 2" spell of weather. People switching priorities from ventilation to heating leads to more COVID.

[Archimid]

I hope you are right.

Me too. But let me remind you that I voted for less than 10,000 deaths in the poll above. The sabotage surprised me.

But you neglect Africa.
It isn't being contained there at all. No tracking, no tracing, no real attempts to contain it (barring efforts in a few countries). Africa is essentially invisible to everyone other than the health care workers, mortuaries, funeral homes and gravediggers.

India does appear much better.

South America isn't containing it or fighting it half as hard as they should.

The US is only just now doing something about it.

I think that in the next few months vaccine will become very abundant. This will impart herd immunity in many places with high vaccination rates. It will be in the best interests of everyone to help countries without good health infrastructure.

 By herd immunity I mean that if an infected person enters the population the chances are low ( not 0) that it finds a host. When a low probability event happens, a host is found likely unvaccinated, that host will also have a low probability of finding another host.

Somewhere in there is going to be a reserve of Covid until the entire lot is vaccinated and with a coordinated effort to reduce the spread.

Remember, the entire lot does not need to be vaccinated, just a large enough amount to make infection chains highly unlikely events. That can be achieved with as little as 20% of the population if the right people are targeted.

I think Covid 19 will become a rare disease of the unvaccinated, and almost always travel-related.

It is possible, I suppose, but can you honestly see a global, coordinated effort to remove Covid for good?

I do. Not only that, I expect governments to make sure this will not happen again. Pandemics are natural. We will alter nature to suit our needs as it is our nature to do.

And even then, Covid will have varients that skip the vaccine so we play the catch up game as with the flu season.

If that happens, we can have vaccine for the new variant in extremely large quantities, extremely quick ( months?).

This is not like the flu at all or the common cold complex. It could become a common disease, but before it gets there it will have to thoroughly mix and mutate into longer-lasting forms like for example:

Looks similar to UK findings. Its more transmissible because the virus builds up to higher levels and takes longer to clear. That also makes it nastier, with higher proportions of serious cases and deaths. Its also distorting the UK infection survey data, because people stay positive for longer and that's changed the relationship between incidence and prevalence.

The variant that Richard describes shows a mutation that favors permanence. Hopefully, the vaccine will take care of it. But this is exactly the kind of thing that can complicate matters.

I will stick with my version of the Covid future for now. If there is anything new that looks like a game changer I will change my opinion, but right now, Covid is here to stay, it will be annoying but, hopefully, we wont have a repeat of last year.... although since the contagiousness increases it isn't off the cards that a repeat is possible.
Unless Govts finally start to take it seriously.

You do that, better to be safe than sorry. I know I'm getting vaccinated even if herd immunity arrives before my turn at vaccine.