COVID-19

[Alexander555]

How widespread would it already be in Indonesia ? And in the Philippines Manila is under lock down already. https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/03/13/indonesia-scrambles-to-contain-coronavirus-as-most-hospitals-not-ready.html?fbclid=IwAR2iFTgebkN49zUozpCkaVTNmLAQ5djjiM3_3997z9xBt63_QRrgfrqETvQ

[Alexander555]

Two days to leave the city ? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-lockdown-strikes-fear-manila-poor-200313133102404.html

[wili]

Arch wrote " How do you define the "true" CFR?"

Good point. On the one hand, as Cid points out, having better data would give us a clearer picture of cfr. But then, cfr is always going to be partly a factor of what kind of medical interventions come into play.

If you have a small cut, we would generally not even think that cfr would come into the picture. But if you have diabetes, and the cut goes untreated, it could well result in death. Or if your work is hauling human manure by hand without protection, a small cut, untreated will likely get infected with some pretty bad shit, so to speak, and again, result in death.

Or there might be 'medical' intervention, but it is so badly performed or unsterile that it makes things worse (as happens all to often in our hospitals in the US).

So I don't think there is really a 'true cfr,' "in nature" so to speak.

But yes, again, better data could give us a better picture of how many now are dying per case in various countries and various situations. But then one rarely/never has perfect data with such things.

[Steven]

"Coronavirus Health Advice - James Robb, MD FCAP
Retired professor of pathology at UC San Diego
05 March 2020-20

1. If you have a runny nose and sputum, you have a common cold

2. Coronavirus pneumonia is a dry cough with no runny nose.

3. This new virus is not heat-resistant and will be killed by a temperature of just 26/27C (78-80F) degrees. It hates the sun.

4. If someone sneezes with it, it takes about 10 feet before it drops to the ground and is no longer airborne.

5. If it drops on a metal surface it will live for at least 12 hours - so if you come into contact with any metal surface - wash your hands as soon as you can with a bacterial soap.

6. On fabric it can survive for 6-12 hours. Normal laundry detergent will kill it.

7. Drinking warm water is effective for all viruses. Try not to drink liquids with ice.

8. Wash your hands frequently as the virus can only live on your hands for 5-10 minutes, but - a lot can happen during that time - you can rub your eyes, pick your nose unwittingly and so on.

9. You should also gargle as a prevention. A simple solution of salt in warm water will suffice.

10. Can't emphasize enough - drink plenty of water!

You are spreading fake news.

There are several versions of the above text circulating on social media.  Some versions say it's from James Robb, other versions say it's from Stanford researchers, yet other versions say it's from Chinese researchers.  None of that is true.

See here for fact-check:
https://fullfact.org/online/coronavirus-claims-symptoms-viral/

[Pmt111500]

Steven, could you at least delete a part of the quote? Thank you for debunking much of it.

[Alexander555]

Spain turns hotels into hospitals. https://www.hln.be/nieuws/buitenland/spanje-roept-noodtoestand-uit-madrid-vormt-hotels-om-tot-ziekenhuizen~a34a6205/

[wili]

Basically, many of us can decide how much better or worse we want this thing to become by how radically and quickly we alter our behavior:

The Seattle-area Institute for Disease Modeling found that even relatively minor changes in social interaction can save lives.

For instance, if there were 400 deaths in Seattle by early April, a 25 percent reduction in social interaction could bring those deaths down to 160.

A 75 percent reduction — of course, much harder to achieve — could bring it to 30.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/14/health-system-coronavirus-preparation-129066

[Archimid]

True CFR = all cases, including mild ones, ones without almost any symptoms versus all dead.

SO the true CFR is

" all cases, including mild ones, ones without almost any symptoms" = 144,957

"all dead."= 5411

5411/144957 = 0.0373

so the "true CFR" is 3.73%.  But the true CFR will likely change when the next batch of results. 

[Sigmetnow]

Commercial aviation

Jet2, primarily a holiday travel airline, turned planes headed to Spain around in mid-air today and returned them to the UK, citing Spain’s virus-driven “closure of bars, restaurants, shops, and activities including any water sports…”

Flightradar24 (@flightradar24)3/14/20, 5:10 AM
We are currently tracking 27 Jet2 flights. 7 of them with destination Spain have turned around and are returning to the UK.  … Other airlines keep flying to Spain.

Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) 3/14/20, 6:23 AM
Jet2 has decided to cancel all flights to Spain

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1238772798077784064
Text image below.

—- Flights have also been reduced in Italy:

Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) 3/13/20, 3:48 PM
Flights to and from Italy’s 10 busiest airports today compared to 13 January, 19:45 UTC. …

https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1238552476439261188
Second and third images below.

—-  But much air traffic remains:

Flightradar24 (@flightradar24) 3/13/20, 1:16 PM
Global air traffic right now. We're tracking 15,000+ flights at the moment.
Follow along at flightradar24.com or fr24.com/apps.
*Blue icons indicate satellite-tracked aircraft
https://twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1238514272566681601
< Any graph on the decrease? Any numbers?
- We have published some figures at [the link below]

Fourth image below.

Commercial air traffic down 4.9% so far in March [YoY]
https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/commercial-air-traffic-down-4-9-so-far-in-march/

[Tom_Mazanec]

Re:”recovered” patients
How many of them are really recovered and how many will spend the rest of their lives unable to climb stairs or walk briskly?

[blumenkraft]

Hard to say at this point.

WHat's for sure is, that people who came down with pneumonia are prone to suffer breathlessness even long after. Sometimes this stays with them forever.

[El Cid]

Truly, Archimid. How can you not understand that most countries do NOT test many people, so cases go unreported and under the radar. Even the Finns, with relatively few cases as our friend bluice wrote a few hours ago:
"Would be great to get tested but the Finnish health officials don’t test mild cases anymore"

Korea and Italy are a case in point. Their confirmed case number went up basically in a lockstep for a good while and yet the number of dead in italy was continuously many times that of Korea. There could be 3 reason.

1. Korean health care was not overburdened, while Italy's was. As they have the same population (Korea slightly less 50M, Italy 60 M) that is not believable.
2. The Italians did not detect all the cases.  By far.
3. The italians are more prone than the koreans.

Use Occam' razor.

Next one:

German and French case numbers are the same and has been cca. equal for many days. Yet Germany has 8 dead (0,2%), France 79 (2%). How come? 

Next one:

I also showed upthread that based on San Marino's numbers, Italian cases are underestimated by at least 5 times, possibly 10.

And let's not forget the ex-Wuhan Chinese numbers, that are basically final, and are around 1%. How come?

[blumenkraft]

Trending hashtag on Twitter: #BoomerRemover ...

[vox_mundi]

US Military to Halt Domestic Travel
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/03/dod-halts-domestic-travel-troops-dependents/163783/

The US military has announced that it will halt all domestic travel, with some exceptions, for service members, defence department civilians and their families amid the fast-spreading coronavirus.

The memo, signed by the deputy secretary of defence, David Norquist, said the policy would go into effect on Monday through May 11, according the Reuters news agency.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-pandemic-worldwide-death-toll-surges-5000-200313233453162.html

-----------------------------

UK Plans to Ban Mass Gatherings Next Week
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-pandemic-worldwide-death-toll-surges-5000-200313233453162.html

The United Kingdom is planning to introduce emergency laws next week to ban mass gatherings in an attempt to curb the coronavirus outbreak, Reuters news agency reported, citing Sky News late on Friday.

"We have drafted emergency legislation to give the government the powers it needs to deal with coronavirus, including powers to stop mass gatherings and compensate organisations," Sky News quoted the source as saying, according to the report.

-------------------------------

The Spanish government have drafted a decree to put the country into lockdown, according to reports in the Spanish media.

The reports say that Spaniards will be told to stay home except to buy food or medical supplies, go to hospital, work or in the case of other emergencies.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-school-shutdown-sport-events-cancelled-latest-update-news


-------------------------------

The US Transportation Department has issued an emergency declaration that waives hours-of-service requirements for commercial drivers transporting emergency coronavirus relief.

"This declaration will help America’s commercial drivers get these critical goods to impacted areas faster and more efficiently," said the department's acting administrator, Jim Mullen, in a statement.

The declaration covers vehicles carrying medical equipment and testing supplies, food to restock stores, and supplies such as gloves, masks, disinfectants, and soap.

The order requires that drivers receive time off once a delivery is complete. It is this first time such an order has been issued on a national level.

https://dw.com/en/coronavirus-latest-us-house-passes-virus-aid-bill/a-52769070

-------------------------------

Australian supermarket giants have put limits on purchases of food staples to prevent panic buying sparked by the coronavirus, AAP reports.

Coles and Woolworths have introduced a limit on some goods to ensure there is enough for everyone, especially the elderly, by preventing people stockpiling.

Coles customers will be limited to two packets of pasta, flour, rice, paper towels, paper tissues and hand sanitiser per transaction. But Guardian Australia’s podcast editor Miles Martignoni reports that now fruit and vegetables appear to be out-of-stock as well, at least in Sydney’s inner-west.

https://mobile.twitter.com/milesage/status/1238707985720832000

------------------------------



This photograph of a Tesco store, in Colney Hatch, London has been circulating on Twitter. Michelle Davies, who took the photograph, described the scene as looking “like there’s been a riot”.

-------------------------------

https://mobile.twitter.com/nickschifrin/status/1238659105985900547

https://mobile.twitter.com/SenSherrodBrown/status/1238571872779935744

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/peter-wehner-trump-presidency-over/607969/

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/03/4-key-reasons-us-so-behind-coronavirus-testing/163767/

[Sigmetnow]

Americans prepare for a weekend at home as government declares coronavirus emergency

(CNN)Americans are waking up to a country under a national emergency.

In many neighborhoods, grocery shelves will be empty. International travel is now heavily restricted. Some church services may be canceled or live streamed this weekend. There won't be NBA, golf or soccer games to watch. Broadway shows have halted too. And in many states, mass gatherings are outright banned.
...
On Capitol Hill, nine US lawmakers are taking steps to self-quarantine after coming into contact with an infected person. And courts across the US are delaying trials due to coronavirus concerns.

In New York, The Broadway League said it was suspending shows through April 12.
And shows like "The Ellen DeGeneres Show," "The Daily Show with Trevor Noah," "Last Week Tonight," "Jimmy Kimmel Live" and "Real Time with Bill Maher" will all temporarily halt production. "...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/us-coronavirus-weekend-updates/index.html

“Full Frontal with Samantha Bee” did their (weekly) show this week with an audience consisting only of staff members — sitting far apart as recommended by health experts “and because they hate each other.”

[Archimid]

Truly, Archimid. How can you not understand that most countries do NOT test many people,

You gave a definition and I used it to make a calculation.

Korea and Italy are a case in point. Their confirmed case number went up basically in a lockstep for a good while and yet the number of dead in italy was continuously many times that of Korea. There could be 3 reason.

1. Korean health care was not overburdened, while Italy's was. As they have the same population (Korea slightly less 50M, Italy 60 M) that is not believable.
2. The Italians did not detect all the cases.  By far.
3. The italians are more prone than the koreans.

Use Occam' razor.

Occam's razor is for multiple choices. In this case the right choice is 4. all of the above. The Italian system is overwhelmed as we speak and the Korean isn't because Koreans wore masks and tested a heck of a lot more. Also, the Italian population is much older than the Korean population.

Next one:

German and French case numbers are the same and has been cca. equal for many days. Yet Germany has 8 dead (0,2%), France 79 (2%). How come? 

I don't know, but my bet is that as cases climb the local CFR will go up.

Next one:

I also showed upthread that based on San Marino's numbers, Italian cases are underestimated by at least 5 times, possibly 10.

yeah, maybe. If that is so the CFR will increase because the system will remain overwhelmed for a long time.

[/quote]And let's not forget the ex-Wuhan Chinese numbers, that are basically final, and are around 1%. How come?
[/quote]

They made up hospitals on the spot, paralyzed the country, wore masks and treated the situation with the seriousness that's required.

None of that changes that according to your definition, the actual CFR is 3.73%

Care to be more specific with your "True CFR" definition?

[Tom_Mazanec]

Is my money safe? Are coins and cash fomites?

[blumenkraft]

The virus can survive for hours to days on it. Better use apple pay if possible.


In other news:

House passes coronavirus relief bill after Trump announces his support

Washington (CNN)The House of Representatives passed a bipartisan legislative package in response to the spread of coronavirus in the early hours of Saturday morning following intense negotiations between House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Trump administration.

The bill passed with broad, bipartisan support and a final tally of 363-40 with 40 Republicans voting against it and Independent Justin Amash of Michigan voting "present."
Late in the day on Friday, President Trump Donald tweeted his support for the measure that includes provisions for paid emergency leave and free testing for COVID-19, after Pelosi announced that Democrats had struck a deal with the administration.
Trump's backing cleared the way for a broad, bipartisan vote in the House with the Senate expected to take up the measure when it returns to session next week.
In a series of tweets, the President said, "I fully support H.R. 6201: Families First CoronaVirus Response Act, which will be voted on in the House this evening."

Link >> https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/13/politics/coronavirus-relief-congress/index.html

I hope this passes the senate.

[Alexander555]

Korea and Italy are a case in point. Their confirmed case number went up basically in a lockstep for a good while and yet the number of dead in italy was continuously many times that of Korea. There could be 3 reason.


If you look at these pictures in South-Korea, they all have facemasks. So it looks like they fear the killer virus. In Italy nobody has a facemask, because it's just the flu. And these facemasks, that's just an example. Their entire way of living will be different. In South Korea they desinfect the airport day and night because they fear the virus. In Italy they don't, because they don't want to scare people. And who do you think will get infected ? And that the German number is so low, maybe it just started faster in Italy. Many tourists.

[vox_mundi]

Dutch authorities confirmed over 800 new coronavirus cases in the Netherlands, bringing the number of patients from 159 to 959 on Saturday

https://m.dw.com/en/coronavirus-latest-us-house-passes-virus-aid-bill/a-52769070

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-school-shutdown-sport-events-cancelled-latest-update-news

[oren]

India has recorded its second coronavirus death – a 68-year-old woman in Delhi who caught the virus from her son who had travelled to Italy and Switzerland. The son developed symptoms a fortnight after returning to India. Officials are trying to trace the 1,500 people he may have been in contact with at the large plant where he worked.

[Shared Humanity]

9 days ago I returned from business trip and four days ago I felt a sore throat in the morning. Didn’t really think much of it. Thursday evening I started feeling generally unwell with a headache and a strange pressure in my chest. I have no fever, no cough, nothing like that. Feels like the mildest case of cold but with the weird feeling down my chest instead of runny nose. Could be anything really, but makes one wonder if this is it.

I’ve decided to self-quarantine for the time being. Would be great to get tested but the Finnish health officials don’t test mild cases anymore. Hence zero new cases yesterday... I am not part of any high risk group. When I tried to get medical advise I found out that all the lines are constantly busy. I’m fine but feel sorry for the people having it severe.

Based on symptoms you have listed, my guess is you are infected...

[El Cid]

9 days ago I returned from business trip and four days ago I felt a sore throat in the morning....

Based on symptoms you have listed, my guess is you are infected...

No shit Sherlock!!!

[The Walrus]

9 days ago I returned from business trip and four days ago I felt a sore throat in the morning. Didn’t really think much of it. Thursday evening I started feeling generally unwell with a headache and a strange pressure in my chest. I have no fever, no cough, nothing like that. Feels like the mildest case of cold but with the weird feeling down my chest instead of runny nose. Could be anything really, but makes one wonder if this is it.

I’ve decided to self-quarantine for the time being. Would be great to get tested but the Finnish health officials don’t test mild cases anymore. Hence zero new cases yesterday... I am not part of any high risk group. When I tried to get medical advise I found out that all the lines are constantly busy. I’m fine but feel sorry for the people having it severe.

Based on symptoms you have listed, my guess is you are infected...

You are probably infected with something, but does not sound like the virus.  The main symptoms are dry cough, as the virus starts in the upper respiratory system.  As it works it’s way into the lungs, shortness of breath becomes an issue.  One of the main symptoms is a fever.  Lacking that, I would say you have something else, or perhaps just a mild case.  Take care of yourself and I pray you get better soon.

[El Cid]

Archimid you misunderstand something. The CFR is 3,73 according to YOUR calculation. According to mine: I discard those countries/regions where they OBVIOUSLY underestimate the true case numbers, and draw my conclusion from regions/countries where they have widespread testing and most everyone, who even has a mild case gets counted as opposed to places where only serious cases are counted. Surprisingly the places with widespread testing all consistently show cca 1%. Must be a strange coincidence.

But you can believe whatever you want. I understand that 90% of participants on this site have an apocalyptic worldview, I can't change that. I just wanted to show the real numbers but never mind.

(BTW, your arguments are generally false eg. Koreans" average age is 41 vs Italy's 46, not that different; and wearing a facemask will change only the rate of infection but not the severity/mortality. Whatever)

[kassy]

dutch numbers

12 deaths +2 new deaths

+ 155 positives
959 cases
These are only positives known contacts with light symptoms are not tested anymore it is also the reason this number is lower then the friday increase.

136 in hospital which is +21 from yesterday
This is the total number having been in hospital so including the death and any possible recoveries.

https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6037475/nu-12-doden-en-zeker-959-besmettingen-door-coronavirus-in-nederland.html

The jump in #2618 is only so big because they added a bunch of days together.

[Lewis]

Global health expert Alanna Shaikh talks about the current status of the 2019 nCov coronavirus outbreak and what this can teach us about the epidemics yet to come.  Alanna Shaikh is a global health consultant. This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Very informative info.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=207&v=Fqw-9yMV0sI&feature=emb_title

[gerontocrat]

This suggests to me that the number of deaths attributable to the virus can only be estimated by comparing actual recorded total deaths against projections of total deaths from existing population models that exclude the virus factor.

I am left with 2 questions....
- I wonder if such an analysis will be done during the progress and/or after the end of the covid-19 epidemic?

Thanks piet, bookmarked the link.

This is being done constantly:
http://www.euromomo.eu/
https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

But the normal routine has a delay of about two weeks (a bit like the PIOMAS data or the methane levels).

Italian cemeteries are overwhelmed. And in Iran too.

[blumenkraft]

THIS >> https://staythefuckhome.com

The Self-Quarantine Manifesto

With no well-studied treatment and a viable vaccine still being out at least another year, the only effective way to keep the coronavirus epidemic at bay is to give the virus less chances of spreading. The following list of actions, ordered from easiest to implement to most effective in the fight against the pandemic, should serve as a set of loose guidelines for people who wish to join the movement and take action, where the people in charge continue to neglect.

Don't panic, but be alert.
Wash your hands often and practice good cough and sneeze etiquette.
Try to touch your face as little as possible, including your mouth, nose, and eyes.
Practice social distancing, no hugs and kisses, no handshakes, no high fives. If you must, use safer alternatives.
Do not attend concerts, stage plays, sporting events, or any other mass entertainment events.
Refrain from visiting museums, exhibitions, movie theaters, night clubs, and other entertainment venues.
Stay away from social gatherings and events, like club meetings, religious services, and private parties.
Reduce your amount of travel to a minimum. Don't travel long distances if not absolutely necessary.
Do not use public transportation if not absolutely necessary.
If you can work from home, work from home. Urge your employer to allow remote work if needed.
Replace as many social interactions as possible with remote alternatives like phone calls or video chat.
Do not leave your home if not absolutely necessary.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Wonder if there will be any rope skipping songs from this. A century ago the popular one was “I had a bird whose name was Enza. I opened the door and in flew Enza.” And of course there’s Ring Around the Rosy.

[pietkuip]

Wonder if there will be any rope skipping songs from this. A century ago the popular one was “I had a bird whose name was Enza. I opened the door and in flew Enza.” And of course there’s Ring Around the Rosy.

The cruise ships could play this by Heino (1972):

Wir lagen vor Madagaskar                      Our boat lay before Yokahama
Und hatten die Pest an Bord.                  And we had Corona on board.
In den Fässern da faulte das Wasser.      In the tanks the water was fauling
Und täglich ging einer über Bord.            and daily one went over board.

[blumenkraft]

Fun fact, Madagaskar is extra hard to infect when you play Pleage Inc.

They just shut down the harbor on you and you can't reach them anymore.

[kassy]

So you do Greenland early?

The one thing that irks me is that all viri share sort of the same path/tech tree (i need a version with very targeted subgames but alas that is not comercially viable). 

[colchonero]

Italy 3497/175  new cases/deaths
That's 1000 more than previous daily high.

[Alexander555]

blumenkraft and kassy, do you already have infections in your area's.

[Alexander555]

So far 700 people have been tested in New-York, 500 of them tested positive.

[Sigmetnow]

Grist’s “Ask Umbra” column on Thursday saw a reader ask about using single-use wipes, gloves, etc to try to stave off the coronavirus:

Dear Umbra,
Should I feel guilty about buying so much plastic-wrapped and single-use stuff for this quarantine nightmare? — Stuck Here Using Throwaways Instead of… Not

You can read Umbra’s full answer by clicking the link [below], but the spoiler is is no, the guilt isn’t necessary. Umbra had a chat about it with Rolf Halden, professor of health engineering at Arizona State University:

While he’s enthused that people are critically thinking about how much plastic they consume, whatever’s being bought in the name of COVID-19 prevention ‘is a drop in the bucket compared to all that we needlessly consume,’ he said. ‘I think the answer is very clear: Don’t compromise health to save a little bit of plastic.’

So give yourself a break, and stay healthy. (She said, who just felt guilty about wiping down my computer and phone with a disposable wipe for electronics.)

https://grist.org/ask-umbra/help-coronavirus-prevention-is-aggravating-my-single-use-shame/

H/t:  https://electrek.co/2020/03/14/climate-crisis-weekly-bears-hibernation-warm-greta-thunberg-new-york-city-cycling/

[blumenkraft]

blumenkraft and kassy, do you already have infections in your area's.

Are you trying to do the morals thing here? You of all people? This is a joke, isn't it?

[Alexander555]

I just try to figure out how fucked-up we are. Im not going to hug you. But it looks like the golden triangle is going to be hit pretty hard. From last night they closed all bars, restaurants, cinemas..... And now there is a big rush into Holland, just over the border . Because there they are still open.

[blumenkraft]

OK, i thought you would condemn us for playing a game. I would have found that very odd from a guy who supports a person who kills actual people on a daily basis due to racism and incompetence.

To your question, yes, we are fucked.

Only the virus is to blame, not the open borders. The virus doesn't even care about borders. It is not aware that there are such things.

[Alexander555]

I don't think Africa is going to agree with you in a couple months. How many flights have been going from Europe, US, Canada.... to Afrika ? These open borders spread it across the entire planet.

[etienne]

 The problem is not open borders but tourism and leisure. If at least people would stop going around just for fun, it would help a lot. This is the reason why countries have to close borders, shops...

[pietkuip]

The problem is not open borders but tourism and leisure. If at least people would stop going around just for fun, it would help a lot. This is the reason why countries have to close borders, shops...

When cafés, restaurants, museums, concerts, theatres, etc are closed, the tourists will stay away.

Closing borders sends the message that the bad stuff comes from outside. It does not cost votes.
For politicians this is a tempting thing to do when there is a "need to do something".

[etienne]

The problem is not open borders but tourism and leisure. If at least people would stop going around just for fun, it would help a lot. This is the reason why countries have to close borders, shops...

When cafés, restaurants, museums, concerts, theatres, etc are closed, the tourists will stay away.

Closing borders sends the message that the bad stuff comes from outside. It does not cost votes.
For politicians this is a tempting thing to do when there is a "need to do something".

Well, even with closed shops, people can still move around to visit relatives or friends... I'm a little bit frustrated that we try to stay in the village, and when the kids go and play around, they find out that the other kids have friends coming from all over the country.

[Archimid]

Italy is approaching a 7% CFR. The next rising CFR's will be Spain and France as their medical services get overwhelmed.

I think Seattle and California are about to become hotspots. Testing will not tell us that, like in other countries. It will be news of overwhelmed hospitals. We have a week for that,

No masks yet.

[etienne]

Hello,

I just found out that John Hopkins University also provides times series.
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/tree/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series

Only .csv, no graphs.

Etienne

[KiwiGriff]

Warning NSFW
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=124&v=Hks6Nq7g6P4&feature=emb_logo

[edmountain]

So far 700 people have been tested in New-York, 500 of them tested positive.

That is an insane number of positive results for what is at this point essentially a screening test. Contrast this with where I work in Alberta where as of this morning there have been 7,108 tests done with 39 positives (source; accessed March 14).

In practice in New York this means the pre-test probability at the time the test is exceptionally high; in this setting it's impossible to conclude that a negative result is a true negative (barring a test with 100% sensitivity--and we know that's not the case).

[Sam]

Italy is approaching a 7% CFR. The next rising CFR's will be Spain and France as their medical services get overwhelmed.

I think Seattle and California are about to become hotspots. Testing will not tell us that, like in other countries. It will be news of overwhelmed hospitals. We have a week for that,

No masks yet.

We don’t know how high the death rate is when the population goes untreated. We know that 15-20% or more need critical care. Lacking that care a significant fraction will die. But how many?  If we guess half of those who wouldn’t have died anyway, then we need to add ~8% to the CFR. That puts the CFR at ~10-12% when severe controls are not implemented early and comprehensively.

The US in particular is very late to do anything meaningful. If those efforts don’t happen in the next few days, then there is a high likelihood that the hospitals become overwhelmed and the worst case happens. If 60% of the population is infected, and the 12% CFR results, the US may see as many as 24 million killed in April.

If massive controls and quarantines begin immediately, the US might limit the death toll to 1 million. All of those deaths, whether 1 million or 25+ million are the responsibility of one person - Donald Trump and his failings.

El Cid,

I know you want this to be less devastating than it is. I believe you are also earnest in your arguments. But you are flatly wrong. There is no sound reason to believe that there is a large silent portion of this pandemic that magically makes the whole population CFR less. There is instead the early phase of infection before symptoms are apparent, and the later phase where they are apparent.

Arguments such as yours, writ large, have contributed greatly to this catastrophe. I do not believe you have made any significant difference personally in the outcome, other than possibly to a few members of this forum, who might to their detriment have listened to you.

It is clear at this point that in general the CFR with working hospitals and advanced health care is about 4.2-4.4%. When those fail, the CFR rises. We have yet to see just how high. At the least - it doubles. With extremely good decision making and massive early actions, it is lessened. China demonstrated that. Italy, France and Spain are way late in learning from that example, but they are at least trying. South Korea and China ex Hubei showed a different and effective approach with emphasis on massive early testing. Others appear to have also made major inroads with early education and campaigns to reduce contact through social distancing, combined with widespread use of masks, and extensive sanitation (hand washing ...).

South Korea and China ex Hubei remain open questions as to why their reported CFRs are lower. Age distributions appear to play an important role. Reporting may as well (I.e. assignment of deaths to causes other than COVID for various reasons). Delays in reporting may too. The choice to use Chloroquine and other drugs/herbs may also play a central role. I sincerely hope they do. We do not know with any certainty what the causes are, or even that they are actually real. To assign that cause based on pure speculation as you have misleads decision makers and expands the magnitude of the catastrophe. Please stop.

It will be of academic interest later, and of importance for future SARSx pandemics. But now, it is important that decision makers bluntly face the high death rate as they make decisions, and that they not be distracted even for a moment by arguments or assertions that the CFR is anything less than 4%. Doing so will get people killed. I would hope that you do not want that.

Sam

[Tom_Mazanec]

How the tanj was China able to get enough face masks for 1.5 billion people overnight!?
I have been trying to find them for over a month and have had no success.