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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 346803 times)

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2750 on: March 15, 2020, 08:40:04 PM »
  Simple math.
China instituted the biggest quarantine, probably in history and took an all hands on deck approach. They tested millions of people, disinfected streets, locked down cities and neighborhoods. By doing so, they regained control. Once control was regained all they did was the SOP for epidemiology. Test/track/isolate. So long as they keep on top of test/track/isolate, they can keep business going.

Where is that fact reflected in your "simple math". It isn't.  If you do include China's response in your "simple math" the conclusions that follow are horrifying. So you won't.

OK.  Let us look outside China.  South Korea was next on the infection list, with the first documented case occurring on Jan. 20, and the first reported death a month later.  The virus started its exponential rise on Feb 18., when the number of new cases doubled to 61.  The peak occurred between Feb. 29 and Mar 3, at over 800 new cases.  The daily deaths reached a high of seven on Mar. 2, and were matched on Mar. 5 and Mar. 10.  South Korea did not enact the same draconian measures as China, but were closer to those enacted by the U.S. 

Using South Korea as the baseline, I would expect the number of new cases in the U.S. to peak within a week, and start to fall slowly.  The actual number may be greater, due to the higher population in the U.S. (although the population density is lower).  The death rate would subsequently peak about a week later.  Is that math simpler for you?

I cannot speak for Europe, but from what I have heard, I would expect the situation to be much worse.

There are several new clusters in South-Korea ,in the big cities like Seoul. So probably it depends on how long they have been going on. These are the places where it can run out of control fast.

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2751 on: March 15, 2020, 09:12:38 PM »
Quote
Health care and consumer industry groups and even federal agencies have been sounding the alarm that the US may face major problems in keeping basic medical, food and retail supplies available during the coronavirus pandemic.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/15/politics/supply-chain-shortages-coronavirus-pandemic/index.html

Top infectious disease expert doesn't rule out supporting temporary [US] national lockdown

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/15/politics/anthony-fauci-national-lockdown-bars-restaurants-cnntv/index.html

Top infectious disease expert warns multitudes could die if Americans don't act

Quote
When asked if hundreds of thousands of Americans could die from coronavirus, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, said “it could happen, and it could be worse."...

Well, now we know how the top infectious disease expert would have voted in our little poll...at least what in his well-informed judgment was not outside the realm of possibility. "Worse" that "hundreds of thousands" is millions, and that's in the US alone...

So he definitely would have been at least in the 'ten to one hundred million' camp.

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-2-03-15-20-intl-hnk/index.html
Quote
The Trump administration needs to “get its shit together” in dealing with the coronavirus outbreak, the governor of Illinois said on Saturday, as travelers returning to the US at Chicago’s O’Hare international airport waited more than four hours for required medical screenings.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-governor-pritzker-trump-shit-together-airports-chicago-ohare

Pretty much everything this administration tries to do turns out to be a disaster.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 09:33:36 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Alexander555

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colchonero

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2753 on: March 15, 2020, 09:15:06 PM »
Over 12 000 new cases today worldwide.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2754 on: March 15, 2020, 09:19:48 PM »
There are now more cases outside of China than inside of China. Within days there will be more who died outside of China than inside of China as well.

The world got lucky with SARS1. We have been mostly lucky with MERS and Ebola. Our luck ran out with SARS2.

So now we face the next difficult series of questions.

1) Will we globally pull our collective heads out of our asses and stop this thing? That was rhetorical. We failed. People have generally done more than governments to slow the spread (except for China, South Korean, and possibly Japan, Singapore and Indonesia). Italy, Spain, France and Germany have come late to the table in exerting controls. The US gas done bupkis as a nation. A handful of US States have done minor things. Major things are required. The US now has one week before the shit hits the fan. The shit is already hitting the Dan in Europe.

2) Whether nations do what is needed to stem this pandemic or not, once the first wave passes, will the nations of the world maintain stringent controls and education, and then aggressively work to eradicate this thing everywhere? Yes, that too is rhetorical. They won’t. That is my prediction. Economic pressures will win. As a result there will almost certainly be a second and third wave.

3) Presuming governments fail to do what is needed to totally eradicate this bug this summer:
A) will the virus mutate into one or more even more virulent or lethal forms?
B) will the virus mutate into less lethal forms in some areas? This leads to huge complications. This may have already happened in South Korea and parts of China.
C) will the virus become endemic?
D) will the virus take up residence in birds, specifically ducks and geese? If so, welcome to the more lethal version of the flu and a dramatic lessening of global life expectancy, as the great bird migrations shit the disease on us year after year, with genetic changes making previous treatments ineffective.
E) will the virus take up residence in other natural reservoirs making it impossible to eliminate?

4) Will the new genetic created vaccines work? Will they have nasty unexpected side effects?

5) Will some asshole somewhere decide to weaponize this bug? Will that be a high school student, or a college student, or some radicalized yahoo from God knows what background angry at someone or some group - using the Crspr and related tools that are now freely available to anyone?

6) As the world is tightly focused on SARS2, will MERS burst forth to show us just how lethal lethal can be? Ebola? Brazilian hemorrhagic fever? A variant of Hanta? Something unknown?

7) Will anyone learn anything from this? Or once it passes, or settles into the annual sequence of diseases or the diseases of youth, will we just go back to sleep only to be slapped in the face by the next emerging pandemic - whether that is Ebola or some other terrible disease almost no one has ever heard of?

Sam

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2755 on: March 15, 2020, 09:26:33 PM »
In the US we are approaching hurricane/tornado/wildfire season.
How will we do social distancing in the camps for disaster displaced people?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2756 on: March 15, 2020, 09:28:25 PM »
Here the libraries closed. It is a place were some of the homeless hang out. There are alternatives but they are worse and more crowded anyway.

I guess they will have to figure out the more urgent disaster....
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2757 on: March 15, 2020, 09:52:21 PM »
DC (and some other smaller cities in the US) have shut down restaurants. Many states have now shut public schools. The faster these kinds of measures spread, the better.

Short of that, we are relying on individuals 'doing the right thing,' which is not a very reliable thing to rely on!
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 10:10:10 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Niall Dollard

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2758 on: March 15, 2020, 09:57:37 PM »
Again today Johns Hopkins is trailing the curve .

Hopkins' figures are trailing again today, for some countries.

At 6pm UTC it gave UK figure of confirmed cases to be 1,144 whereas other media outlets have updated to 1,372.

Italian deaths at 1,441 whereas figure elsewhere is quoted as 1,809
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 10:06:54 PM by Niall Dollard »

edmountain

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2759 on: March 15, 2020, 09:58:04 PM »
Edmountain,

The difference in 1-4% fatal isn’t with medical folks. They get it. They focus on what is right before them and what is important.

The importance is with the political leaders. When they fall into the threshold belief that this is just another flu, that is when they fail to act and fail to act quickly enough or massively enough. That is when a simple disease outbreak becomes an epidemic and when an epidemic becomes a pandemic.

In the end, the CFR will be a footnote. Unfortunately it will be a footnote to a paragraph that explains how leaders were so stupid as to allow a pandemic to ravage the world killing untold millions, and about how unnecessary those deaths were, and where it was that they got this idea from.

That is why and where the CFR argument has any importance at all. That - and the lives destroyed by all of those individual unnecessary deaths.

Sam
Sam, I think we're both on the same side in that we're each trying to achieve the best possible outcome under the circumstances. Your concerns are clearly genuine, heartfelt, and admirable. However, I feel our personal and professional circumstances are leading to different approaches as to how a good outcome could be achieved.

I don't want to be self-aggrandizing but I feel compelled to reiterate that I work within the medical system on the front lines clinically, at the operations level through management, and in my academic role. Through my work and research I know firsthand what the scientific consensus on this issue is. The consensus is that the CFR is only one small piece of the puzzle. Whatever its eventual value, it is clearly dangerously high; I have not a single colleague who believes that this is "just another flu".

More important than the numerical value of the CFR though is the realization that it is modifiable through application of evidence-based interventions [see edit below]. Discussion focused on the response and the evidence available to guide this response is, in my opinion, of far greater value than continual bidding wars about a fuzzy number.

Edit: what I should have said above is that the total number of cases and whence the number of deaths is modifiable; the CFR in and of itself is not modifiable. Apologies for the error.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 10:39:17 PM by edmountain »

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2760 on: March 15, 2020, 10:00:38 PM »

2) Whether nations do what is needed to stem this pandemic or not, once the first wave passes, will the nations of the world maintain stringent controls and education, and then aggressively work to eradicate this thing everywhere? Yes, that too is rhetorical. They won’t. That is my prediction. Economic pressures will win.
Eradicating this bug is not possible. Not with your estimate of how contagious this is. Or with other values of R0.

This bug must be present under the radar in parts of Asia and Africa.

This bug is rapidly multiplying in the USA, among populations that do not have access to healthcare.

I don't know what is happening in the countries of the former Sovjet Union.

Until a vaccine is developed, eradication is unrealistic. Whatever amounts of money one would throw at this.

PS: Had a nice dinner this evening with a Chinese student. How the tables have turned! Now her parents worry about her here in Sweden. And she is stuck here. Cannot travel in the rest of Europe as she had planned.
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 10:06:34 PM by pietkuip »

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2761 on: March 15, 2020, 10:25:34 PM »
I am hearing reports of very long lines at "coffee shops" in the Netherlands, as they are about to be closed. Can anyone here confirm or otherwise (or are you standing in one now??  :) :o 8) )

Meanwhile, official numbers so cases outside China set to pass 100,000 in the next couple days, and still doubling every 4-5 days.

Guessing (conservatively imvho) that this under-represents the actual number of infected by an order of magnitude, there are probably a million people (at least) with this thing worldwide outside China. 

And (conservatively again) rounding up to a five day doubling time, that gives a projection (not prediction) of about a billion infected outside China by about the beginning of May.

One way or the other, of course, it will be leveling off shortly thereafter.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-tot-outchina

Public Radio just now:

Quote
The governor of Illinois on Sunday ordered all bars and restaurants in his state to close amid the threat of the new coronavirus, and officials elsewhere in the country said they were considering similar restrictions after revelers ignored warnings against attending large gatherings
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 11:08:28 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2762 on: March 15, 2020, 10:55:10 PM »
For those of us who manage to isolate ourselves and manage to avoid the first wave what signs might we look for as to when it is safe to venture out ? I am thinking several months.
Wuhan should offer some idea of how those isolated can resume contact with those who got sick , recovered and got back to work. I don’t see any numbers that indicate anywhere , even Wuhan , have 60-70% of their population exposed . Community tolerance and returning to something like normal is , I believe , based on a majority of population exposure and developed resistance. New import cases into any population with acquired resistance would still infect those who isolated and avoided being infected. So if we allow this virus to burn through the population then those of us isolated may need to stay that way a very long time, maybe years.
 A lot of ridiculous high end toys , travel , restaurants , and service industries will collapse if more than a few of us isolate for very long. Extreme isolation is about the only way to keep my wife alive and the farm working. Gavin Newsom , our governor , just ordered the home isolation of all seniors...
 Any guess on when we get turned lose ? 

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2763 on: March 16, 2020, 12:06:41 AM »
Things just got very, very real for us here. The coop grocery store two blocks from us where we shop nearly every day just closed because a worker there tested positive.

Everyone, stay safe and healthy!

Peace,
wili
« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 02:30:07 AM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2764 on: March 16, 2020, 12:17:50 AM »
The Guardian has seen internal memos of Public Health England:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised

Quote
The document says that: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalisation.”

Quote
A senior NHS figure involved in preparing for the growing “surge” in patients whose lives are being put at risk by Covid-19 said an 80% infection rate could lead to more than half a million people dying.

That number is not global, it is for Britain alone.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 12:23:38 AM by pietkuip »

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2765 on: March 16, 2020, 12:37:32 AM »
headline reads like 79 million , but 7.9 million hospitalized is not possible .. not the beds so not likely . Millions dead more likely . How do we deal with that ?   b.c.

2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2766 on: March 16, 2020, 12:40:38 AM »
headline reads like 79 million , but 7.9 million hospitalized is not possible .. not the beds so not likely . Millions dead more likely . How do we deal with that ?   b.c.
Those millions do not require hospital care at the same time if all goes well.

And this is the number that would need hospitalization. When the beds are not there, that means that the CFR goes up a few percentage units.

greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2767 on: March 16, 2020, 12:47:45 AM »
Many presume that being a fit, active 72 year-old makes them lower risk than a sedentary 72 year-old.  I'm not aware of any data to support that presumption.

If society would suffer from all the over 70s sequestering themselves for some months, imagine if many of them would disappear from their jobs and communities forever. 
On your 70th birthday, you suddenly get extra-susceptible? I don't think it's that simple, even though the UK government seems to think it is. I know many people still hale and hearty into their 80s. On the other hand, I know people who have been frail all their lives. Which ones need most protection?

When the first deaths were reported, the authorities were always at pains to point out that these were people who had other health problems. I'm always fairly skeptical of official pronouncements, but this one seems valid. If so, being fit, active and healthy should help quite a lot.

It's a pandemic. Over time, just about everyone will be exposed to the virus. A lucky few with natural immunity will avoid falling ill; a number of others will be mildly ill, some will be very sick, and some will die. At this point, a vaccine or a cure seem to be too far off to consider. This being so, the only action that can be taken is to try to reduce the rate of infection to avoid swamping medical facilities and hopefully keep economies from collapsing. It seems to me that in dealing with the first point, governments are ignoring the second. If everyone takes to their bunkers, the world's wheels will stop turning. How much danger will that put us all in?

The survivors will emerge in a few months to find a very changed world. In some ways better, from the point of view of this forum. Less travel. Fewer shiny trinkets imported from the other side of the world. More electronic communication rather than face-to-face. And hopefully, everyone acting a little more grown-up about things.

Talking of which...
Agreed, Sam! But it's not only about politics. We also have to take malicious individuals into account.

When i got angry with a certain boomer earlier today, it was because he displayed a selfish attitude getting himself and others killed without even realizing.

Some people are just not able to live in a society...

Remember that guy in Italy ignoring the quarantine and then infected hundreds? Well, he faces murder charges now. I hope he rots in prison.
I'm a long way from being selfish. Just objecting to the UK government's one-size-fits-all approach to the problem.

I know you're looking for a fight - you're always looking for a fight. But not here. There are a couple of forums I belong to where that sort of thing is encouraged. If we were on one of those, I can assure you that you'd be lying at my feet, bleeding. Here, though, we're all nice guys facing a problem and trying to think through it. Less snark would be good, especially right now.
Step by step, moment by moment
We live through another day.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2768 on: March 16, 2020, 12:51:32 AM »
I am hearing reports of very long lines at "coffee shops" in the Netherlands, as they are about to be closed. Can anyone here confirm or otherwise (or are you standing in one now??  :) :o 8) )

Meanwhile, official numbers so cases outside China set to pass 100,000 in the next couple days, and still doubling every 4-5 days.

Guessing (conservatively imvho) that this under-represents the actual number of infected by an order of magnitude, there are probably a million people (at least) with this thing worldwide outside China. 

And (conservatively again) rounding up to a five day doubling time, that gives a projection (not prediction) of about a billion infected outside China by about the beginning of May.

One way or the other, of course, it will be leveling off shortly thereafter.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-tot-outchina

Public Radio just now:

Quote
The governor of Illinois on Sunday ordered all bars and restaurants in his state to close amid the threat of the new coronavirus, and officials elsewhere in the country said they were considering similar restrictions after revelers ignored warnings against attending large gatherings

The unconstrained doubling time has often been as little as 1.5 days in the span from about 10 cases to about 100 cases. This comes from a daily growth of 1.60x/day. Wuhan continued at the high rate for somewhat longer.

From 100 to about 5,000 cases the daily growth often slows to about 1.33 - 1.35x/day. This has been repeated in country after country. This corresponds to a doubling time of 2.33 days (8x/week). Note: Dr. Fauci and many others have been citing a doubling time of one week. That is grossly in error. It is much much faster than that. And that has enormous impacts on decision making.

From about 5,000 cases to 10,000 cases the doubling time often slows. It finally seems to stabilize at 1.15 - 1.20x/day in many cases. That corresponds to a doubling time of ~4 - 5 days.

It might be possible to put some sort of relation to that. But the individual variation by location is no doubt important. And once massive quarantines are imposed the relationship falls apart - as it should.

The slow down from 1.33 - 1.35x/day seems to very much be associated with societal changes - distancing, hand washing, self-isolation and ultimately quarantines. I suspect that is precisely what it is. It may also be partly influenced by the statistics of human to human contact. This can occur as the infection moves from the most mobile and contacted part of the population into more isolated segments with less contact. At even higher infection counts, it can also happen with statistical reduction in the population pool available of those who have not yet been infected.

This latter effect is where herd immunity comes in. If the R0 is small enough (near 1), when a significant part of the population is infected the statistical chance of infected people infecting others drops taking the R0 under 1. At that point the infection chains peter out and die. The most you can expect from that is a ratio of 0.6. That means that when the R0 is greater than the inverse of this, i.e. > 1.66, that herd immunity will not stop the chains.

When the R0 is substantial this does not happen. The effective R0 still drops due to the reduced probability of finding uninfected people to infect. However, with a high R0, there are still enough people to keep the effective R0 above unity, so the chains continue.

With an extremely infective virus, herd immunity has much less importance. This is where Boris is making a huge mistake in Great Britain. He reportedly wants to rely on herd immunity to end the chains. I do not know this first, second or even third hand. So treat that as rumor until someone links a story. Whether true or not it provides backdrop for explaining why this will not work.

This virus has been reported to have a serial time (the average time it takes one person to infect another in a chain) of 5.9, 7.2, and 7.5 days.  These are not significantly different evaluations. They are all long. Also, the virus seems to be contagious for at least several of the days before symptoms show at day 5-7 on average.

If we know or can estimate the serial time, and we know the slope of the growth curve of infections (plotted logarithmically), we can calculate the effective R0 = (growth rate/day)^(serial time in days). the growth rate itself is the exponential of the slope of the curve on the logarithmic plot (to the same base as the plot was made).

So for the typical growth rate of 1.35x/day and a serial time of 5.9 days we get an R0 of 5.87.  With the same growth rate and a serial time of 7.5 days the R0 is 7.50.

These are in the same range as Chicken Pox. It is highly communicable!

During the early phase with growth at ~1.6x/day, the equivalent R0 is then 16 - 34 !!!  That is Measles territory and worse.

This is what Edmountain was referring to. The major factors involved in this pandemic involve this infectivity, not the CFR. The CFR gets to consequences. It doesn't tell the whole story.

For disaster planning, both of these and the ratios for various morbidities are all important. For disaster management in an ER, the focus is on the specifics of the disease as it affects treatment and as it affects infection control.

The issues for decision makers and emergency managers is mostly about trying to stop the spread, and about logistics issues related to impacts on health care and societal functions. So long as those do not exceed the capacity of the emergency services, the details of what they have to deal with though important, are a second level concern. The first level concern is in minimizing the catastrophes growth so that they do not become overwhelmed. Then next, if they will be, figuring out any ways to reduce those impacts to levels that can be dealt with. 

In China that meant doing the mass quarantines, ... as first level response; then rapidly building hospitals and moving in equipment and personnel (doctors and nurses, plus support equipment and supplies) to handle the surge as it occurred. Italy failed there. The hospitals were and remain overwhelmed. At that point, the hospital emergency staff are in triage mode. They are having to decide who lives and who dies. This will traumatize them for the rest of their lives.

Within the medical establishments the focus is different. There the focus is on infection control both for all of the patients AND for all of the doctors, nurses, and staff, while being able to rapidly assess and handle all of the casualties and their specific needs without exhausting everyone, or consuming all available supplies. Slightly lower in priority is efforts to find the most effective and expeditious treatments with the best outcomes. Those are all a delicate dance with conflicting priorities and resource needs.

Back to your specific question. Since the time to display symptoms is generally about 5-7 days, this means that under the expected conditions with a growth rate of 1.35x/day, The number infected is about 6 times the number exhibiting symptoms. And since it often takes a day or two for those to present, thats 1.8 times more yet. And if the systems require that they be "confirmed" through testing to be counted, and the tests take 2 days to return answers, that is yet another 1.8x multiplier. For that case, the number infected is something like 20 times the confirmed count (give or take - a lot).

If there are no test kits available (US case) and the policy is to not test unless certain very constrained conditions exist (again - the US case), then the true population infected count may be staggeringly higher than the confirmed case count. In that case, deaths from causes that look like COVID may be a better indicator. And those occur something like 17 days on average following confirmed infection - 23 days in total. So death count times 1,000 may be a crude estimate of the likely count of those infected. That presumes of course that all those dying of the disease get counted as that, even if they were never tested for it.  Otherwise, the number is higher. Using these ratios for the United States this would suggest somewhere between 48,000 and 59,000 people infected a day ago. (Remember too that the data ia almost always a day late). That converts to 65-80,000 today.

Note also that as time passes, the counts smear together current and past counts, and these ratios break down. Do not rely on them other than as extremely crude thumb rules. Even then - do not rely on them.

If the controls began to go in place less than a week ago (true), then the growth is the same for the next few days at least. Remember that people are infected for almost a week before showing symptoms - so that week delay is baked into the problem.

If we use a growth rate of 1.25x/day for the next week (given how much people are beginning to do), then a week from today we should expect that there are 300-400 thousand people infected in the US.

BUT, if the numbers are suppressed due to under counting, these may dramatically underestimate the total infected at every stage.

Continue that same growth for one more week (i.e. no significant national actions for the next week, just haphazard State and individual actions that cause the rate of growth to remain at 1.25x/day for another week), then before anything changes, the number of infected people in the US reaches 1.4 - 1.8 million.

That is a likely minimum case BEFORE significant national controls take force. It only takes 24 more days (31 from now - one month) of inaction for those numbers to grow to involve every injectable person in the United States. And the first 6 of those are already baked in. Each passing moment dramatically lessens the effectiveness of any action taken.

That is the nature and problem with exponential growth. By the time you see you have a problem it has already eaten your lunch.

Sam

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2769 on: March 16, 2020, 12:53:38 AM »
I felt a disturbance in the force as if millions of voices decided to cry out in terror... "ENOUGH". We will stop Covid 19.

Quote
Any guess on when we get turned lose ?

I think it will be safe to come out again when contact tracing is caught up with the number of infected patients.

 So the first good sign has to be that testing begins. Then we see where we really stand.

 I find it unlikely that we will be able to keep up contact tracing given how widespread it likely is. Hopefully, strong social distancing and hygiene feature slow it enough that contact tracing can catch up. I'm assuming automated contact tracing that uses the massive amount of data that surrounds us. It will require more than hand washing. It will require masks.

After the caseload is at a size that contact tracing can be performed, then safety improves significantly. I would guess 2-4 weeks after tracing is caught up.

That's my best guess Bruce. Stay safe, best of luck to you, although your energy and food independence make you much less dependant on luck than most of us.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 01:24:12 AM by Archimid »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2770 on: March 16, 2020, 12:54:49 AM »
JR Gaillot on Twitter: "I landed in Haiti and as I got off the plane I was tested for #COVID19 let that sink in"
https://twitter.com/jrgaillot/status/1238532044554211329
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kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2771 on: March 16, 2020, 12:56:51 AM »
I am hearing reports of very long lines at "coffee shops" in the Netherlands, as they are about to be closed. Can anyone here confirm or otherwise (or are you standing in one now??  :) :o 8) )
The government closed all bars and restaurants at 1800 hours today. There were some big lines in the last hour at the coffeeshops.

I went to get an icecream and some people were going for that too although a lot less. No queue.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2772 on: March 16, 2020, 01:05:14 AM »
Note: Dr. Fauci and many others have been citing a doubling time of one week. That is grossly in error. It is much much faster than that. And that has enormous impacts on decision making.

Maybe you misheard? "Tenfold in a week" is correct, but maybe you heard "twofold"?

See the semilogarithmic curves of the cumulative numbers of deaths here: https://observablehq.com/@neelance/corvid-19-trends?collection=@observablehq/coronavirus
« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 01:10:25 AM by pietkuip »

Bernard

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2773 on: March 16, 2020, 01:05:22 AM »
JR Gaillot on Twitter: "I landed in Haiti and as I got off the plane I was tested for #COVID19 let that sink in"
https://twitter.com/jrgaillot/status/1238532044554211329

And the answer Jan Carlos Muñiz Miró, just below : Meanwhile, here in Puerto Rico a plane arrived yesterday from Spain full with passangers and NOBODY got tested. They walked straight through the airport and got out

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2774 on: March 16, 2020, 01:28:46 AM »
Washington Post, Live Updates, March 15
03:18 PM: Durbin calls for Senate to pass coronavirus relief package without returning to Washington
Quote
A top Democrat on Sunday urged Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) to call off this week’s Senate session and allow the chamber to pass the coronavirus economic relief package by unanimous consent — a move that would let lawmakers remain in their home states and avoid traveling to Washington.

Sen. Richard J. Durbin (Ill.), the No. 2 Senate Democrat, said in a statement that it is necessary for the Senate to pass the economic relief bill “immediately” given that the country is in a national emergency. The House overwhelmingly passed the measure early Saturday, and the Senate is expected to take it up this week after McConnell canceled the chamber’s planned recess.

“The House passed this measure with a 90 percent bipartisan vote,” Durbin said. “We should do the same by UC immediately and offer those who would vote no a chance to do so with Congressional Record entries … Given this pandemic, time is of the essence and we should not delay.”

In his statement, Durbin said McConnell’s decision to call the Senate back into session “is unnecessary and puts many innocent people at risk.”

McConnell’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.


——
Quote
Bonnie Norman (@bonnienorman) 3/15/20, 11:01 AM
When did your clock start?

Once you self-isolate for a couple weeks, you are able to be w others who have done the same. My sis who has done the same may come stay with me (fingers crossed), since neither of us are sick & we've both isolated.

My clock started on March 6th.
https://twitter.com/bonnienorman/status/1239205200012800000
BN:  She hasn't committed to coming up yet, but fingers crossed. I just sent her a text bribing her w cupcakes.  It's her kryptonite.

< I’m trying out Walmart’s grocery pick up service today. Last time I was in there was enough for me, empty shelves and broken peanut butter jars on the floor.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2775 on: March 16, 2020, 01:33:24 AM »
JR Gaillot on Twitter: "I landed in Haiti and as I got off the plane I was tested for #COVID19 let that sink in"
https://twitter.com/jrgaillot/status/1238532044554211329

And the answer Jan Carlos Muñiz Miró, just below : Meanwhile, here in Puerto Rico a plane arrived yesterday from Spain full with passangers and NOBODY got tested. They walked straight through the airport and got out

Too late, but they are learning:

12:18 PM: Governor of Puerto Rico orders islandwide curfew to curb virus spread
Quote
Gov. Wanda Vázquez Garced ordered a national curfew that will start Sunday night in an effort to prevent the spread of the coronavirus on the island, local outlets reported.

The curfew will last from 9 p.m. until 5 a.m., starting Sunday and ending March 30, El Vocero de Puerto Rico reported.

“All citizens must remain in their homes and, in this way, contribute to preventing the spread of this virus. That is everyone’s responsibility,” Vázquez Garced said, according to El Nuevo Día.
The governor also announced the island refused to dock four cruise ships and ordered all nonessential businesses shut down as of 6 p.m. Sunday, according to the outlet.

“This closing order applies to shopping malls, cinemas, concert halls, theaters, gyms, game rooms, casinos, stipend businesses for alcoholic beverages,” Vázquez Garced said in a news conference.
Puerto Ricans will not be allowed on public roads under the curfew, El Nuevo Día reported. People with authorized work reasons and those with emergencies will be exempt, according to El Vocero de PR.

The curfew comes only days after the governor declared a national emergency that involves assigning National Guard medical units to all Puerto Rican airports to evaluate new arrivals on the island.
The U.S. territory confirmed its fourth positive coronavirus case on Saturday, according to Noticentro WAPA-TV. The latest case is an 87-year-old California man who was on a cruise ship that moved through the Mona Passage, the station reported.

There are about 17 more suspected cases in Puerto Rico, El Nuevo Día reported.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2776 on: March 16, 2020, 01:45:02 AM »
U.S. Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to zero as part of wide-ranging emergency intervention
The Washington Post
The Fed took dramatic steps not seen since the 2008 financial crisis to bolster the U.S. economy in the face of coronavirus.
Quote
The Federal Reserve announced on Sunday it would drop interest rates to zero and buy at least $700 billion in government and mortgage-related bonds as part of a wide-ranging emergency action to protect the economy from the impact of the coronavirus outbreak.

The moves, the most dramatic by the U.S. central bank since the 2008 financial crisis, are aimed at keeping financial markets stable and borrowing costs as low as possible as businesses around the country shutter and the U.S. economy hurtles toward recession.

The Fed, led by Chairman Jerome H. Powell, effectively cut its benchmark by a full percentage-point to zero. The benchmark U.S. interest rate is now in a range of 0 to 0.25 percent, down from a range of 1 to 1.25 percent.

The Fed also announced it is restarting the crisis-era program of bond purchases known as “quantitative easing,” where the central bank buys hundreds of billions of dollars in bonds to further push down rates and keep markets flowing freely. To help Main Street, the Fed is also giving more generous loans to banks around the country so they can turn around and loan to small businesses and families in need of a lifeline.

“Economic policy experts must do what we can to ease hardships caused by the disruption," Powell said in a conference call Sunday evening. He said the coronavirus outbreak “will have a significant effect on economic activity in the near term.”
https://apple.news/AJ3LQlfbvR92s-tX46Oqvvw
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be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2777 on: March 16, 2020, 01:47:14 AM »
So the Feds finally buckled to Trump's pressure . Wail st 'happy' ?  I think not .. even the wealthy want to see testing prioritised over market manipulation .. b.c. 
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2778 on: March 16, 2020, 01:49:15 AM »
Note: Dr. Fauci and many others have been citing a doubling time of one week. That is grossly in error. It is much much faster than that. And that has enormous impacts on decision making.

Maybe you misheard? "Tenfold in a week" is correct, but maybe you heard "twofold"?

See the semilogarithmic curves of the cumulative numbers of deaths here: https://observablehq.com/@neelance/corvid-19-trends?collection=@observablehq/coronavirus

He said ten times the death rate of flu (which is less than real by a factor for 4-5) and doubling every week.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2779 on: March 16, 2020, 02:07:36 AM »
It's Classified
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/live-updates-puerto-rico-enacts-curfew-over-coronavirus-concerns-travelers-face-hours-long-delays-at-us-airports/ar-BB11cwEA

Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar on Sunday declined to reveal the total number of ventilators in the U.S. federal stockpile, citing national security, even though another official had already given the number.

Dr. Fauci said the U.S. has 12,700 ventilators stockpiled. He said the country may not have enough depending on how quickly the virus spreads
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2780 on: March 16, 2020, 02:16:21 AM »
8:25 p.m. ET, March 15, 2020
CDC recommends canceling or postponing events involving more than 50 people for eight weeks
Quote
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published interim guidance Sunday recommending "that for the next 8 weeks, organizers (whether groups or individuals) cancel or postpone in-person events that consist of 50 people or more throughout the United States."

"Events of any size should only be continued if they can be carried out with adherence to guidelines for protecting vulnerable populations, hand hygiene, and social distancing. When feasible, organizers could modify events to be virtual," the CDC's guidance said.

The CDC's recommendation does not apply to "day to day operations of organizations such as schools, institutes of higher learning or businesses."

"This recommendation is made in an attempt to reduce introduction of the virus into new communities and to slow the spread of infection in communities already affected by the virus. This recommendation is not intended to supersede the advice of local public health officials," the CDC said.
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-2-03-15-20-intl-hnk/index.html
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2781 on: March 16, 2020, 02:22:40 AM »
ALBANY, New York (WABC) -- Three people have died from coronavirus COVID-19 as the number of cases swelled to 729 in the state, New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Sunday.

... Cuomo says all non-essential state government personnel who work in Rockland County and counties in southern New York should should stay home due to COVID-19 coronavirus.

New York is now the state with the most cases of COVID-19 in the country. 137 of the 729 people are in hospitals of which 65 are in the ICU and 46 are intubated.

He also said the Army Corps of Engineers should be mobilized to help fight the coronavirus by equipping facilities like military bases or college dormitories to serve as temporary medical centers. Cuomo continues to say that there are not enough ICU beds in the state in the event the curve is not flattened.

" You will be not able to flatten the curve to avoid the wave. You will be short thousands of ICU beds, thousands of ventilators. The only way to prevent that today given this time constraint is to deploy The Army Corp of Engineers and use that to capacity retrofit existing facilities to free up hospital beds.

The decision is easy when you have no options. Here, the nation has no option,"
he said.

https://abc7ny.com/6015641/

--------------------------------

The Connecticut National Guard has been mobilized and is aiding in requests for assistance from the Department of Public Health. Some of the assistance provided so far includes:

· Delivery of ventilators to St. Francis Hospital, Danbury Hospital, and Hartford Hospital;
· Inventory of medical equipment sets for the Mobile Field Hospital; and
· Reconfiguring parts of the Mobile Field Hospital into small tents for possible rapid deployment to hospitals.

------------------------------

Stop Your Non-Mission-Critical Travel, White House Tells Federal Agencies
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/03/cease-non-mission-critical-travel-white-house-tells-federal-agencies/163793/

The White House Office of Management and Budget on Saturday asked federal employees to avoid all work travel unless it is 'mission critical', due to concerns about the spread of the novel coronavirus. This is in addition to international travel restrictions already in place.

Criteria as to whether a trip meets the threshold include if it is necessary to protect life and property, if it is to inspect equipment that is critical to safety or the continuance of an agency’s operations, or it is essential for national security reasons.

“Travel by any federal employee to or within areas where there is community spread of COVID-19 should only be undertaken when there is an urgent need, such as to protect life and property,” the memo concluded.

------------------------------------
« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 02:31:35 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2782 on: March 16, 2020, 02:27:49 AM »
Archimid, We have become friends here on the forum , we worry a little bit about our friends here for hurricane season , or for fires, and now collectively we face pandemic. I can’t draw lines between them.
 If this situation encourages people to raise a few chickens, grow a garden, tend to the frail, and ground somewhat their expectations , maybe coming out of it we may better know our place.
 If this pandemic is drawn out then people should think about buying a flour mill and buying a couple bags of feed corn and wheat. Fifty pound bags of wheat or corn cost about twenty bucks and a flour mill will last a lifetime of use. Three or four hundred bucks should get you enough staples for a year.
Cheap insurance.

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2783 on: March 16, 2020, 02:35:44 AM »
Ode de Toillette - The Great COVID19 Walmart Toilet Paper Shortage of 2020- Bagpipe Tribute

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dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2784 on: March 16, 2020, 02:53:36 AM »
Looking through some social media sites and reading the comments on a few news sites leads me to conclude that as of Sunday evening here on the east coast of the US, social distancing is failing. Badly.

Not good.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2785 on: March 16, 2020, 03:22:17 AM »
DC (and some other smaller cities in the US) have shut down restaurants. Many states have now shut public schools. The faster these kinds of measures spread, the better.

Short of that, we are relying on individuals 'doing the right thing,' which is not a very reliable thing to rely on!

All restaurants and bars have been shut down in the state of Illinois.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2786 on: March 16, 2020, 03:27:01 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2787 on: March 16, 2020, 03:38:14 AM »

Same here, Bruce. I wish you all the best.
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wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2788 on: March 16, 2020, 03:46:13 AM »
SH wrote: "All restaurants and bars have been shut down in the state of Illinois."

Yeah, I saw that. It seems to me that the CDC now recommending no gatherings over 50, that they are basically calling for the shut down of most restaurants and many other large institutions like big bars, gyms, even cafes

But apparently they followed this seemingly bold statement up with the rather confusing and contradictory: "the day to day operation of organizations such as schools, institutes of higher learning, or businesses.”

https://www.denverpost.com/2020/03/15/cdc-gatherings-recommendation-coronavirus/

That's just batshit crazy, and would make most reasonable people question the validity of the institution, just when we need to have clear, consistent messaging from someone, since we can't expect any such from the current administration
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2789 on: March 16, 2020, 04:10:03 AM »
At least 22 people out of 96 attending a wedding ceremony and the party afterwards got infected. One of the guests had been on a skiing holiday in Tyrol, Austria, and feeling pretty good during the party.

https://www.mtvuutiset.fi/artikkeli/koronavirus-riehui-haajuhlassa-etela-suomessa-morsian-ja-suuri-osa-vieraista-sai-tartunnan-sairastuneet-istuivat-eri-puolilla-juhlatilaa/7762366#gs.zph9tj

Though the guest stated as having no symptoms, I'm still believing some coughing happened, perhaps near the wedding cake
« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 05:11:21 AM by Pmt111500 »

HapHazard

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2790 on: March 16, 2020, 05:28:40 AM »
Just chillin' out here on my remote farm acreage. Only thing I'm worried about is running out of cigars, if this lasts more than a year.

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2791 on: March 16, 2020, 06:16:03 AM »
Just chillin' out here on my remote farm acreage. Only thing I'm worried about is running out of cigars, if this lasts more than a year.

Good for you!

I'm not moving from the city, though I possibly could lodge in the countryside, I believe healthy farmers are better than sick farmers. The local University has started to transfer most of the courses online, the healthcare system orders people with severe respiratory illness to attend a specific healthcare locales and not their regular ones. Hospitals here are making room for extra special care units, as much as it is possible.

We in Finland have also our first healthcare workers, couple of nurses and a doctor, who got this disease, again an infection originating from skiing holiday.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 06:23:22 AM by Pmt111500 »

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2792 on: March 16, 2020, 08:26:24 AM »
Quote
South Korea was doing a fantastic job of controlling #COVIDー19 for the first 30 patients. Then #Patient31 came along, did not adhere to social distancing and caused 2 clusters that were responsible for 80% of South Korea's infections. Don't be #Patient31.

Link >> https://twitter.com/girlsreallyrule/status/1239171993100005376

STAY THE FUCK AT HOME! https://staythefuckhome.com

bluice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2793 on: March 16, 2020, 09:31:27 AM »
This being so, the only action that can be taken is to try to reduce the rate of infection to avoid swamping medical facilities and hopefully keep economies from collapsing. It seems to me that in dealing with the first point, governments are ignoring the second. If everyone takes to their bunkers, the world's wheels will stop turning. How much danger will that put us all in?
Yes, but we also need to stop whining about governments and take responsibility. Closing restaurants is useless if people have dinner parties instead. In the end of the day it is upto us to have this over with quickly with minimum damage or have it dragging on and on.

The question is not whether you or I or the guy next door will die to the virus. The point is to avoid social contacts as much as possible. Some people are not able to do that because of work or other reasons, many others such as pensioners and people able to work from home are, and as such have a bigger responsibility to do so.

The virus moves from person to person. More social interaction mean more infections, more deaths and longer epidemic. Less interaction cuts the infection chain and ends the epidemic. China took this to the extreme and they are pretty much back to normal already.


---

My case of mild corona or usual cold is more or less over. I did eventually develop a dry cough and mild chest pain but they are already gone. However my daughter is having a sore throat now. Needless to say we are staying home self-quarantined.

Aluminium

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2794 on: March 16, 2020, 11:07:00 AM »
Regional map of coronavirus in Russia (in global map).

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2795 on: March 16, 2020, 11:13:26 AM »
bluice:
I think draconian social isolation shortens the epidemic, but the kind the West is doing now will lengthen it. It is called “flatening the curve”. This extends the economic damage in time.
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etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2796 on: March 16, 2020, 12:44:11 PM »
bluice:
I think draconian social isolation shortens the epidemic, but the kind the West is doing now will lengthen it. It is called “flatening the curve”. This extends the economic damage in time.
The West is changing quite fast. Everyday are new rules. I'm happy that I have a garden. I'll have things to post in the "Walking the walk- Gardening" topic.

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2797 on: March 16, 2020, 12:50:37 PM »
There will almost certainly be over 100,000 confirmed cases outside China by the end of the day today. Doubling nearly every four days.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-tot-outchina

Is there any way to guess how many orders of magnitude this is short of the actual number of infections at this point (short of the massive testing that isn't happening here or most other places).

It seems like some tests could be reserved to do random sampling of a statistically large enough group to get some kind of handle on how widespread this is now in communities.

It seems strange that in an era when Walmart knows before you or your husband (or wife) does that you are pregnant, that we just really have no clue how many people in the population are walking around with a deadly, highly contagious disease!
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Bernard

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2798 on: March 16, 2020, 12:53:29 PM »
One thing I really wonder is what's going on with international flights, and why there are still so many of them between countries supposed to apply drastic confinement measures.

Have a look at Flightradar24, giving real-time flight positions, company, provenance and destination.

Random airport of a country at the heart of outbreak : Barcelona
https://www.flightradar24.com/airport/bcn

Clicked on random planes taking on and off. Barcelona-Stockholm, Oslo-Barcelona, Barcelona-London, Barcelona-Cologne etc.

Look around Milano, whatever, you'll see the same situation. Look over Atlantic ocean, same.

Of course there are far less flights than BAU, but still ... those are commercial flights, I suppose the planes are not empty, at least there is a crew and a handful of passengers.

Thoughts about that?

[edited] They also provide stats : https://www.flightradar24.com/data/statistics
Yesterday, more than 150,000 flights have been tracked, a 25% drop from one month ago. But even with half-empty planes, this is still huge. It means hundredths of thousands of people at least, more probably a few millions, moving around on a daily basis.
« Last Edit: March 16, 2020, 01:05:08 PM by Bernard »

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #2799 on: March 16, 2020, 01:08:09 PM »
People rushing to return to loved ones before the whole world is in lockdown, perhaps?

Update on my local situation: so first it was the coop grocery two blocks away that shut down because an employee tested positive. Now the same thing has happened at a beloved little cafe about a mile away, where my daughter used to work.

I'm pretty sure that a testing of random folks in my neighborhood would show a fair percentage have it, though probably most are not symptomatic yet.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."