COVID-19

[Rodius]

.. ^^^ maybe a few floods here 'n' there ?  b.c.

He already did the flood thing and promised not to do it again.

[pileus]

First reported case near The Villages retirement community in Florida.  I expect this to sweep through here like wildfire, due to the demographics and a mindset that is hostile to facts and science.

https://www.villages-news.com/2020/03/16/lady-lake-woman-confirmed-to-have-coronavirus/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=lady-lake-woman-confirmed-to-have-coronavirus

Florida Retirees More Worried About the Stock Market than Coronavirus

https://mobile.twitter.com/Reuters/status/1239660208768471041

[Freegrass]

.. ^^^ maybe a few floods here 'n' there ?  b.c.

I've got a chainsaw. Shall we start building?

[silkman]

This study by Oxford demographer Melinda Mills compares the early stages of the virus spread in two North Italian towns, Lodi and Bergamo. Lodi introduced lockdown measures rapidly and was able to slow the spread of the virus.

Bergamo was slower off the mark with their lockdown programme but not by much. The result was a continued increasingly rapid spread of Covid-19. There may be a size issue too as Bergamo is much larger than Lodi.

This data should give Boris and his modellers some real food for thought as they reflect on their catastrophic false start that delayed the partial lockdown measures announced yesterday for London, not to mention the rest of the UK. Donald should take note too!


https://twitter.com/melindacmills

[vox_mundi]

[Tom_Mazanec]

vox_mundi, good cartoon. And dogs lick their privates and roll around in feces!
People, I have a wonky home computer and am afraid to go to the library (on its last day) to get this, but on my iPhone I came across an article in the New York Times and Daily Mail saying 6.99 million Americans could die of Covid-19 this year, eleven times more than cancer. My computer can't handle the workload of posting this now, and I don't know how to do this on an iPhone. Also, I came across an analysis from Imperial College (Dr. Neil M. Ferguson) saying that covid-19 could last much longet than spring in the US and flare up again when measures are relaxed.

[dnem]

Italy's reported deaths dropped from 368 to 349 from two days ago to yesterday.

Just a bit of noise in the data or is their mortality curve flattening?

What do folks make of this?

[Archimid]

They got supplies from China and large scale social distancing started some time ago. I hope it is real.

[dnem]

The data. Some noise throughout the series.

[Freegrass]

The data. Some noise throughout the series.

I was looking for a good website with data about the virus yesterday, and found this one. It's really good, and updated constantly it seems.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus

[pietkuip]

Italy's reported deaths dropped from 368 to 349 from two days ago to yesterday.

Just a bit of noise in the data or is their mortality curve flattening?

What do folks make of this?

Or it means that older people don't bother to call the doctor.
Don't want to suffer on a stretcher in a sports facility, with an aluminum-foil blanket over them.
Decide to die at home.

[dnem]

That's where that graph is from.

[bluice]

It's good the Italian numbers aren't growing, that's for sure. At some point stronger measures must have an effect we can measure in figures.

But. It takes on average 17 days from coronavirus infection to death. On average patients who passed yesterday got sick on Feb 29th and as I recall Italy was not yet acting strongly at that point.

[pietkuip]

The modeling by the British that lead to a change in policy:

Two fundamental strategies are possible: (a) mitigation, which focuses on slowing but not necessarily stopping epidemic spread – reducing peak healthcare demand while protecting those most at risk of severe disease from infection, and (b) suppression, which aims to reverse epidemic growth, reducing case numbers to low levels and maintaining that situation indefinitely. Each policy has major challenges.

We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over.

For countries able to achieve it, this leaves suppression as the preferred policy option.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

[wili]

Expert on public radio now speaking openly about the fact that in the US, we will soon be resorting to triage--deciding who is going to get life-saving treatment, and who won't--just as is the case now in Italy.

I knew this, but hearing on national radio what was only discussed on blogs like this just a few days ago...was a bit of a wake up.

[blumenkraft]

I came across an analysis from Imperial College (Dr. Neil M. Ferguson) saying that covid-19 could last much longet than spring in the US and flare up again when measures are relaxed.

Robert-Koch-Institute thinks this pandemic could last 2 years.

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/coronavirus-deutschland-rki-101.html

[zufall]

As to the discrepancy between the current death ratios in Germany and (many) other countries, there was speculation that this could be partly due to the relatively higher number of tests. Now, I just read this statement (translated with Google):

"According to information from the National Association of Statutory Health Insurance Physicians [Kassenärztliche Bundesvereinigung], there were around 100,000 tests for the corona virus in the outpatient care area in Germany last week. That was about three times as many as in the previous week (35,000 tests). The tests in hospitals are not included in this statistic. Therefore, the total number is higher."

How do these testing numbers compare to other countries?

[Archimid]

Apparently South Korea tested 248k as of March 13. That's the latest I can find. Given that sample size, South Korea has a notoriously young sample ( because of the church) but a higher rate than Germany.  Germany is an outlier. There is a good explanation for it and it may be worth find it out what it is.

My wife thinks that's because of general population health, extreme testing/tracing/isolation, and social discipline. I would like to believe her but it just seems too low.

[blumenkraft]

OK, very very good news coming from a new study conducted in China on apes.

They suggest with high confidence that you become immune after catching the virus. If true, this could be over rather soonish (not the two years time frame mentioned upthread).

Heard this on the NDR Coronavirus podcast with Prof. Dr. Christian Drosten.

[vox_mundi]

Dire New Report Forces U.S. and U.K. To Change Course On Coronavirus Strategy
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-report-us-uk-strategies-e45bc5d4-d2f1-40e2-825e-429b2b7c1b50.html

A startling new report from Imperial College London warns that 2.2 million Americans and 510,000 Britons could die from coronavirus if extreme action isn't taken to change the course of the outbreak.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Why it matters: The report's dire warnings prompted a quick course correction from both the American and British governments on their strategies, but its strict recommendations and long timeline — 18 months — to stem the tide could have far-reaching implications for both populations and economies.

What they found: The report states the effectiveness of "mitigation," which includes isolating only the sick and those linked to them while advocating social distancing for at-risk groups, is limited. It instead recommends "suppression," a much more wide-ranging tactic to curb coronavirus' spread.

The researchers say that suppression "will minimally require a combination of social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members." It also recommends school closures.

The report notes that this strategy could have to be in place until a vaccine is developed, which could take 18 months — saying it is "the only viable strategy at the current time."

Worth noting: While China and South Korea have managed to suppress the outbreak using similarly draconian strategies, the report admits that it's not yet clear if suppression's successes can last in the long-term.

The state of play: The findings caused a messaging shift on both sides of the Atlantic.

While President Trump had previously brushed off coronavirus concerns and compared it to a winter flu, the White House advised people on Monday to avoid gatherings of 10 or more, stop non-essential travel and avoid bars and restaurants.

The U.K. previously allowed its citizens to go about the world more or less as normal, but Prime Minister Boris Johnson walked some of that back this week — admitting that the country was only days behind Italy's outbreak and instituting more strict recommendations for at-risk populations. But it still eschewed lockdowns and closures like those being implemented around the world.

The big picture: The New York Times reported that the Imperial College researchers "had shared their projections with the White House task force about a week ago and that an early copy of the report was sent over the weekend."

The BBC called the report the "crucial piece of evidence" that spurred Downing Street to act, saying the researchers "first realized the scale of the problem in China" and noting their "advice is heavily influential in government."

The bottom line: The report admits that "no public health intervention with such disruptive effects on society has been previously attempted for such a long duration of time."

"How populations and societies will respond remains unclear," it concludes

-------------------------------

[dnem]

18 months of school closures and strict social distancing is simply not tenable.  I truly believe it cannot be done.

I think (but I obviously do not know!) that extreme measures to prevent an early swamping of health care capacity makes sense, but at some point we might just have to take our lumps, absorb a cull of human numbers and develop herd immunity.  The entire global finance system and economy cannot possibly survive 18 months of shut downs and at some point the cure is worse than the disease.

I am not putting "the economy" above human life. I am saying that a collapse of the global economy will have more dire impacts on human health and welfare than letting this disease sweep through the human family.

Am I wrong?

[pietkuip]

at some point we might just have to [...] absorb a cull of human numbers and develop herd immunity

At some point, yes. But 5 % of the population dead in the next two months is not acceptable.

[Pmt111500]

Finland will close all borders except for essential work-related reasons. By chance, Russia does the same about the same time.

Finnish citizens can still return, foreign citizens may leave, no special evacuation flights will be organized. Preschools and Elementmary schools stay open for those kids whose parents are working in an essential job for dealing with the crisis. Homes for the elderly are closed for visits by relatives and any others.

Hoping this is enough to not end up like Italy.

[Sigmetnow]

Take a moment.

It’s hard not to be anxious right now given all of the uncertainty and upheaval the novel coronavirus pandemic has brought to our everyday lives.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/therapists-advice-patients-coronavirus-anxiety_l_5e6fb44ac5b6125e095b4134

[greylib]

Elsewhere on this site people have said that overpopulation is one of our biggest problems, and a cause of a lot of the others. It's been suggested that several billions would have to die to reach a sustainable level, and that famine, flood, water wars and so on could well lead to somewhere around that number this century. 5% is pretty small beans compared to these apocalyptic visions.

It's all very well to say that this is not "acceptable", but how do we stop it happening?

[dnem]

at some point we might just have to [...] absorb a cull of human numbers and develop herd immunity

At some point, yes. But 5 % of the population dead in the next two months is not acceptable.

Right, that's the part about extreme measures to prevent the early swamping of medical facilities.

[Tor Bejnar]

You're not wrong Dnem. 

I'd just prefer a hospital bed with appropriate equipment being available if/when I (and loved ones and acquaintances and strangers) get (seriously) sick.  The way northern Italy 'did' it is not comforting, and there is little indication the U.S. federal government is following planning a different strategy. 

For the sake of a 21st century climate that minimizes the extinction of species, this virus may be 'very good' - more easily said philosophically than personally. 

[blumenkraft]

but how do we stop it happening?

Really?

Ok, once more: https://staythefuckhome.com

[greylib]

Read the post. I'm not talking about 5%, but 40%. Idiot.

[dnem]

Greylib, I'm not sure who or what post you are referring to, but please try and be civil.  Please.

[The Walrus]

It is difficult to make perfect sense of the numbers while the curve is still rising.  The decrease in deaths in Italy is likely noise, as the actual number decreased on the 14th, 12th, and 9th.  Comparing the rise in Italy to China and South Korea, where the virus has subsided, today would be near the peak.  If the number on the 15th turns out to be the peak, that would certainly be good news. 

With regards to comments about 80% of the cases going unreported, that would decrease the overall fatality rate to under 1%.  The data is becoming more consistent.  The elderly and those win poor health. are more likely to succumb to the virus.  Those that took action early to stem the outbreak, have experienced fewer deaths.  Hopefully, the virus will not catch up to the panic it has caused.

[Archimid]

18 months of school closures and strict social distancing is simply not tenable.  I truly believe it cannot be done.

No. But 14-21 days of extremely strict isolation would reset the clock. 99.9% of all infected will run the course of the disease without passing it to others. Then testing, contact tracing and isolation can begin again.

I think (but I obviously do not know!) that extreme measures to prevent an early swamping of health care capacity makes sense, but at some point we might just have to take our lumps, absorb a cull of human numbers and develop herd immunity.

If testing, contact tracing and isolation is performed with extreme diligence a culling is completely unnecessary. infections would be kept to a minimum, especially if technology is leveraged.

The entire global finance system and economy cannot possibly survive 18 months of shut downs and at some point the cure is worse than the disease.

Yes, the cure is worse than the disease if not done correctly. Half measures and lack of testing only prolongs the pain. What the UK is proposing is half measures, similar to what Trump is delivering in the US. It's like they want to convince the people that no solution is possible and just die.

I am not putting "the economy" above human life. I am saying that a collapse of the global economy will have more dire impacts on human health and welfare than letting this disease sweep through the human family.

Am I wrong?

Yes, you are wrong. Letting this run through or taking weak measures will be worse for the global economy no matter what. It is not an option to let it run through. Look at Iran, look at Italy. LEaders are the vulnerable population.

All countries that slacked off in testing must shut down until they can control the disease within their borders. To control the disease they must test in mass, trace contacts and isolate. If done rigth the numbers can be kept to a minimum for decades at a relatively constant cost.

[KiwiGriff]

Is it good to cull the human species ?
Probably on an intellectual level.
Culling the old will have an out sized  impact on the AGW effects of consumerism as you amass more wealth and have more opportunity to spend it as you age.   
Personally.
Some of us are high risk .
I dont want to die and I also dont want to see others on here die.

[dnem]

AGAIN, I said "extreme measures to prevent an early swamping of health care capacity makes sense."

My family and I are practicing almost complete social distancing.  I was referring to the UK study that suggested that these measures may need to stay in place for up to 18 months. THAT is simply not tenable.

We can and must keep it up for as long as we can. And I will be doing that.  But if the global finance system suffers a catastrophic collapse, millions or perhaps billions of people will face grave threats.  That's the only point I was trying to make.

[Shared Humanity]

18 months of school closures and strict social distancing is simply not tenable.  I truly believe it cannot be done.

I think (but I obviously do not know!) that extreme measures to prevent an early swamping of health care capacity makes sense, but at some point we might just have to take our lumps, absorb a cull of human numbers and develop herd immunity.  The entire global finance system and economy cannot possibly survive 18 months of shut downs and at some point the cure is worse than the disease.

I am not putting "the economy" above human life. I am saying that a collapse of the global economy will have more dire impacts on human health and welfare than letting this disease sweep through the human family.

Am I wrong?

OK Boris.

[vox_mundi]

Coronavirus Threatens Blood Supply
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN20Y1H3

US blood transfusion association the AABB has said it expects the country will face blood shortages in only about two weeks time, with about half of blood centers reporting low inventories.

... China saw sharp shortages in blood donations as quarantine measures to prevent the spread of the virus took its toll on inventories around the country.

Coronavirus is not transmissible via transfusion, according to the American Red Cross. (? ... damned if you do, damned if you don't )

"There is absolutely no evidence that the coronavirus or any respiratory viruses are transmitted via blood transfusion," said Dr. Pampee Young, chief medical officer of the American Red Cross.

--------------------------

Berlin authorities are planning a special hospital for 1,000 COVID-19 patients in the city. The facility is to be on the site of the Messe Berlin Exhibition grounds in Charlottenburg-Wilmersdorf. At present the, the German capital has 332 confirmed cases of the virus but that number is expected to rise sharply.

... German Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said he expects Germany will have to "deal with the consequences" of the coronavirus outbreak until at least the end of May.

"I wouldn't advise anyone to bank on this being over in eight days," Altmaier told German broadcaster RTL on Tuesday.

... Germany's Friedrich Merz, who is among the most likely candidates to take over as leader Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats (CDU), has tested positive for coronavirus.

--------------------------

The number of confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in the UK rose to 1,950 by Tuesday, up from 1,543 the day before. Britain's National Health Service is set to cancel all routine surgery for three months and send home as many patients as possible to free up beds for COVID-19 patients.

The UK governent's chief scientific adviser, Patrick Vallance, says officials hope measures Britain has taken to tackle coronavirus mean the country will have fewer than 20,000 deaths from the outbreak.

---------------------------

Spanish health officials confirmed nearly 2,000 new COVID-19 cases Tuesday, with the total number of cases now topping 11,000. The total number of fatalities is currently at 491, and Spain has ordered a nationwide lockdown to stop the virus from spreading further.

--------------------------------

A nationwide lockdown began in France at noon local time on Tuesday, requiring people to remain in their homes and only go out for the "bare essentials" like groceries, medicine and going to work.

There were reports of many Parisians crowding train stations attempting to leave the French capital for the countryside before the noon deadline. There were also reports of long lines of people outside supermarkets buying supplies in preparation for the lockdown.

The government said tens of thousands of police would patrol French cities, and anyone caught without a written declaration to justify their reason for being out could be punished with a fine of up to €135 ($150), according to Agence France Presse.

French President Emmanuel Macron said in a speech Monday that the lockdown would be in place for at least 15 days. "We are at war" with coronavirus, said Macron. France currently has over 6,600 confirmed COVID-19 cases and 148 deaths.

[Freegrass]

...at some point we might just have to take our lumps, absorb a cull of human numbers and develop herd immunity.

Since a cure or vaccine is still months - probably more than a year - away from now, "herd immunity" will probably have to be achieved by the "healthy young herd", while the elderly and the weak will have to remain at risk and in quarantine until a cure is found.

I already told my 80 year parents that it's gonna be a long year for them... I worry about them... Getting them immune will be a lottery ticket...

[The Walrus]

18 months of school closures and strict social distancing is simply not tenable.  I truly believe it cannot be done.

No. But 14-21 days of extremely strict isolation would reset the clock. 99.9% of all infected will run the course of the disease without passing it to others. Then testing, contact tracing and isolation can begin again.

I think (but I obviously do not know!) that extreme measures to prevent an early swamping of health care capacity makes sense, but at some point we might just have to take our lumps, absorb a cull of human numbers and develop herd immunity.

If testing, contact tracing and isolation is performed with extreme diligence a culling is completely unnecessary. infections would be kept to a minimum, especially if technology is leveraged.

The entire global finance system and economy cannot possibly survive 18 months of shut downs and at some point the cure is worse than the disease.

Yes, the cure is worse than the disease if not done correctly. Half measures and lack of testing only prolongs the pain. What the UK is proposing is half measures, similar to what Trump is delivering in the US. It's like they want to convince the people that no solution is possible and just die.

I am not putting "the economy" above human life. I am saying that a collapse of the global economy will have more dire impacts on human health and welfare than letting this disease sweep through the human family.

Am I wrong?

Yes, you are wrong. Letting this run through or taking weak measures will be worse for the global economy no matter what. It is not an option to let it run through. Look at Iran, look at Italy. LEaders are the vulnerable population.

All countries that slacked off in testing must shut down until they can control the disease within their borders. To control the disease they must test in mass, trace contacts and isolate. If done rigth the numbers can be kept to a minimum for decades at a relatively constant cost.

Archimid, I agree with you here.  If we can stem or postpone the worst of this virus until after a cure and/or vaccine is readily available, then the worst consequences will be averted.  With the speed at which medical researchers are working, I suspect that one will be found and available within six months.  Necessity is the mother of invention.

[vox_mundi]

UK confirmed coronavirus cases rise 26% to 1,950 in past 24 hours
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/urges-world-test-test-test-covid-19-live-updates-200316234425373.html

British cases of coronavirus rose 26 percent to 1,950 from 1,543 the day before, the health ministry said.

Britain reported its first confirmed coronavirus case on January 31. There have so far been 56 reported deaths.

-----------------------------

Iran warns virus could kill 'millions' in Islamic Republic
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-pandemic-kill-millions-iran-200317135500255.html

Iran issued a dire warning on the coronavirus outbreak's rapid spread, suggesting "millions" could die in the country if the public keeps travelling and ignoring health guidance.

A state television journalist, who also is a medical doctor, gave the warning hours after hardline Shia-Muslim faithful pushed their way into the courtyards of two major shrines that had just been closed over fears of the virus.

The Islamic Republic's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued a religious ruling prohibiting "unnecessary" travel in the country.

According to an Iranian health official, there were 135 new deaths due to the coronavirus, raising the total death toll to 988.

--------------------------

At least 37 suspected COVID-19 patients flee Afghan hospital

At least 37 patients thought to be suffering from COVID-19 fled from a hospital in Afghanistan's western Herat province, a health ministry spokesperson said.

The people in question were in isolation because of the virus. They escaped the hospital with the help of their relatives after beating up staff members at the medical centre, ministry spokesman Wahidullah Mayar said.

--------------------------

Israel deploys cyber-monitoring against coronavirus, tells people not to leave home
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/urges-world-test-test-test-covid-19-live-updates-200316234425373.html

The Israeli government began deploying cellphone-monitoring technology against the coronavirus on, and issued directives urging people not to leave home.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's cabinet approved emergency regulations that will enable the Shin Bet internal security service to tap into cellular data to retrace the movements of people infected by the virus.

The data, customarily used for anti-terrorism, will be used by the Health Ministry to locate and alert those who have been in their vicinity, the government said

---------------------------

Robbers grab 100,000 surgical masks at gunpoint as Ukraine enters shutdown
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/urges-world-test-test-test-covid-19-live-updates-200316234425373.html

Shops, restaurants and transport were shutdown in Ukraine after the country tightened restrictions to contain the spread of the coronavirus, while police arrested five people suspected of trying to rob 100,000 surgical masks at gunpoint in Kiev.

-----------------------------

Vice president Mike Pence is asking US construction companies to donate face masks to hospitals during the coronavirus crisis.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SmithInAmerica/status/1239942618840207362

[vox_mundi]

Carmaker Ford has said all its plants across Europe will be closed for the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile, Nissan says production has been suspended at the UK's Sunderland factory as the company examines supply chain disruption and a sudden drop in market demand as a result of the coronavirus crisis.

---------------------------

German carmaker Volkswagen announced it would stop production at the vast majority of its factories in Germany and the rest of Europe starting Friday. Work is expected to be halted for up to three weeks.

---------------------------

[Archimid]

dnem +1

[gerontocrat]

Latest from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

195,000 cases recorded, of which 105,000 still active.

Of the 89,000 cases now closed,
- 81,000 recovered,
- nearly 8,000, 9% dead. This is the scary statistic, the mortality of closed cases having increased from 7% to 9% in a very few days.

[Alexander555]

Maybe a stupid question, but i'm going to ask it anyway. Is there an impact if you have a flu vaccination every year ? And  you get now infected with the coronavirus.

[kassy]

Dutch numbers

Deaths 43 +19 new deaths
Ages 63-94

1705 confirmed cases 389 of these are health care workers.

[kassy]

Maybe a stupid question, but i'm going to ask it anyway. Is there an impact if you have a flu vaccination every year ? And  you get now infected with the coronavirus.

No not in either way.

[dnem]

OK Boris.

SH, what is this even supposed to mean? Please lay out to me what you think the world will look like if there is no travel, no school, no restaurants, commerce in general reduced by 75% all spring, summer, fall and more?  Now, I'm the first to say that we actually NEED to get there because of climate change, but it needs to be done in an orderly fashion. 

I am doing everything I can to personally shut down ANY chance of me or my family being part of a transmission chain. I am telling everyone I know, unequivocally, #staythefuckhome.  We are in a really challenging dilemma. 

[kassy]

In that long term a lot of people would go hungry and then they get cranky... 

[Sebastian Jones]

731 new case so far in New York today, meaning that there will certainly be more than 1000 new cases in America today- 969 so far.
Source:https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en#

For some reason, West Virginia has thus far escaped diagnosing a single case. One wonders if any tests have been carried out...

[Pmt111500]

For some reason, West Virginia has thus far escaped diagnosing a single case. One wonders if any tests have been carried out...

They treat everyone trying to get in as an infected zombie and shoot them on the border?

[Alexander555]

In the Netherlands . https://www.hln.be/nieuws/buitenland/nederland-kiest-voor-groepsimmuniteit-tegen-coronavirus-maar-aanpak-is-niet-zonder-risico-s~a20af46f/