COVID-19

[Sigmetnow]

Tonight [White House coronavirus task force member] #DeborahBirx stated that models anticipating large-scale transmission of COVID-19 do not match reality on the ground. Our modeling (done by @StephenKisslerbased on work with @ctedijanto and @yhgrad and me) is one of the models she is talking about.

We received a request to model dozens of scenarios from the US government at 5pm on Tuesday. We responded to many of these on Wednesday evening, thanks to fast and careful work by @StephenKissler. This was done in good faith in order to help support the USG response.

Modeling the scenario of intense social distancing for a temporary period, followed by a letup, produces predictions of resurgent transmission and large epidemics, with the exact consequences depending on the degree and duration of reduced transmission during social distancing. ...

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1243347447537115136.html

[gandul]

Gandul, you didn’t like my cheek kissing comment even though I am certain it was common for the long period between the first infections and the hospital deaths that alerted the Italians of their problem. So in my mind a potential contributing factor. As far as my racism I am sure it is far better to ignore customs of other people who we call friends and treat as friends but never truly understand.
( intended sarcasm ) I am sure your misunderstanding of my situation is cultural also. Lots of people are out of a job and race or culture doesn’t make it easier . Excuse me if I offend your sensitivities.

Bruce, I doubt kiss in cheek as a significant factor in Italy spread, might be but I doubt it, being social crowds the major “booms”, without kisses involved. New Orleans Mardigrass is now suspected as a spreading source, AFAIK Americans are not huge kissers (between friends or even family) but not 100% sure. So fear the crowded places, rather than cheek kisses which anyway don’t happen anymore these days. Note that Spanish and Italian population are absolutely immobilized mostly. In the US I hear many people ignore “curfew” as by law they cannot be forced

As for the mask,  my understanding is that in US not many people are using it, so I don’t get the distinctions you make with Mexican American or Latinos in general. Yes they have this macho thing, but how many white Americans have this ”nobody fools with my freedoms” thing that makes difficult efficient lockdowns? It’s sterile to resort to these stereotypes, anyway.

[Sam]

Tonight [White House coronavirus task force member] #DeborahBirx stated that models anticipating large-scale transmission of COVID-19 do not match reality on the ground.

This is simply Bullshit of the highest order. Dr. Birx has destroyed her own credibility. Hopefully her career will now shift to shit shoveler at her neighborhood sewage plant. She can rot in hell with the rest of them.

And as far as Hair Trump wanting the Governor’s to appreciate him. Kiss my ass you son of bitch. You sir desperately need to contract this virus and experience everything it has to offer to the bitter end.

The Guardian gets it right.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/27/trump-narcissism-american-blood-coronavirus

Sam

[Sigmetnow]

New York City

Mayor Bill de Blasio (@NYCMayor) 3/27/20, 1:45 PM
The doctors and nurses at Elmhurst Hospital are giving it their all right now. We’re laser-focused on keeping them supplied with what they need. Yesterday we sent more ventilators and staff. Today, we sent 8,000 N95 masks, 18,000 head covers and 2,000 booties. More is on the way.

https://twitter.com/nycmayor/status/1243595016808906754

Mayor Bill de Blasio (@NYCMayor) 3/27/20, 9:53 PM
The vast majority of New Yorkers are practicing social distancing, but we've seen some concerning cases of non-compliance.

Let me say this as clearly as I can: we DON'T want to issue fines. But this weekend will decide whether tougher measures are needed to protect everyone.
https://twitter.com/nycmayor/status/1243717727811973121

- I want to thank religious leaders from all faiths who protected their congregations by suspending in-person services.
- For the handful who haven’t, it's my sad duty to say that if you hold large gatherings at a house of worship this weekend, we will have to enforce the rules for everyone’s safety. ...

Edit.  Also NYC.  Restaurant delivery service:

Jason Rabinowitz (@AirlineFlyer) 3/27/20, 8:07 PM
.@Grubhub appears to be having a meltdown tonight

https://twitter.com/airlineflyer/status/1243691238676725760
Image below.

[TerryM]

gandul


I'm at a loss when you write of the prejudice on this forum.
I've noted a few anti-Chinese, anti-Russian zealots that take unnecessary crude shots at cultures they know little or nothing about. Usually I or others try to take a swipe, then let it pass.


There is no prejudice in Bruce or his writing.


What else is there to say.
Terry

[Bruce Steele]

I think there are cultural issues involved. I once had the fortune to visit Japan. Masks were common and I asked why ? “ Because when you are sick you try to protect others by covering your mouth “
In ways I will never understand the Chinese people pulled together and with great sacrifice  tamed Covid at least for awhile.
We Americans have this weird individualism that may be particularly harmful in current circumstances. If we can’t put the masks on to protect others when we may harm them or wear the wrong mask at the wrong time because we are more worried about catching the disease than spreading it , a r-95 mask with an exhaust valve is no protection to anyone else if you happen to be contagious. Our government can’t even find the wisdom to inform the public about proper mask etiquette but anything they said would only be believed by half the electorate anyhow.
 So obviously we have more going wrong than cultural problems with individualism because we are currently also almost like two divorcees sharing their old  apartment while the paperwork gets done. 
  Terry , Thanks, I have to admit I can be as culturally blind as anyone else but only by recognizing our weaknesses can we mentally check our worst tendencies before they are spoken or worse, acted upon.
  I find “racist”  to be a dog whistle and I bristled but did my best to corral myself.
 

[vox_mundi]

US states have begun imposing federal quarantine orders on people arriving from New York, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak in the US.

In the state of Rhode Island, around 250 kilometers (160 miles) from New York City, state police officers Friday began pulling over vehicles with New York state license plates to collect contact information and inform them of a mandatory 14-day quarantine, the Associated Press reported.

Governors in Texas, Florida, Maryland and South Carolina this week ordered anyone arriving from New York and the neighboring states of New Jersey and Connecticut, to self-quarantine for at least 14 days after arrival.

-----------------------------

Cruise Ship With Coronavirus Outbreak Blocked From Transiting Panama Canal
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/coronavirus-cases-top-100000-italy-deaths-rise-live-updates-200327231629838.html

Panamanian health officials have blocked Holland America Line's MS Zaandam from transiting the Panama Canal, citing sanitary conditions after a coronavirus outbreak on board the cruise ship.

Four passengers have died aboard, with over 130 others suffering from influenza-like symptoms. At least two of them have coronavirus, the vessel's operator said.

The ship has 1,243 guests and 586 crew on board, as well as four doctors and four nurses, the cruise operator said in a statement.

---------------------------

India's Coronavirus Lockdown Has Triggered Mass Migration On Foot
https://qz.com/india/1826384/indias-coronavirus-lockdown-has-triggered-mass-migration-on-foot/amp/

A great reverse migration is underway in India.

On March 24, prime minister Narendra Modi urged all Indians to stay at home for three weeks to contain the spread of the novel coronavirus. The short, four-hour notice for the shutdown, though, effectively trapped the country’s 470 million migrant workers in no man’s land.

The closure of all but essential services has made it impossible for the daily wagers to live in the rented shanties of big cities. Even though finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced a Rs1.7 lakh crore ($23 billion) relief package yesterday (March 26), to aid those who live on the margins, panicked labourers are undertaking 500km long journeys on foot in the absence of trains and buses.

This arduous trek back home to their villages now threatens to defeat the very purpose of the ongoing 21-day lockdown.

[vox_mundi]

Officials in nearly 200 U.S. cities, large and small, report a dire need for face masks, ventilators and other emergency equipment to respond to the coronavirus outbreak, according to a survey released on Friday.

The United States Conference of Mayors questioned officials in 213 municipalities and found serious shortages that underscored the “scope and severity” of the crisis. The organization, a nonpartisan association of mayors from across the country, urged the federal government to provide more support.

More than 90 percent — or 192 cities — said they did not have an adequate supply of face masks for police officers, firefighters and emergency workers. In addition, 92 percent of cities reported a shortage of test kits and 85 percent did not have a sufficient supply of ventilators available to local health facilities.

Roughly two-thirds of the cities said they had not received any emergency equipment or supplies from their state, the report said. And of those that did receive state aid, nearly 85 percent said it was not enough to meet their needs.

In total, the conference tabulated that cities need 28.5 million face masks, 24.4 million other items of personal protection equipment, 7.9 million test kits and 139,000 ventilators

https://www.usmayors.org/issues/covid-19/equipment-survey/

---------------------------------

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/upshot/coronavirus-new-york-comparison.html

-----------------------------------

Not Wearing Masks to Protect Against Coronavirus is a ‘Big Mistake,’ Top Chinese Scientist Says
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/not-wearing-masks-protect-against-coronavirus-big-mistake-top-chinese-scientist-says

Interview with George Gao, head of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention ...

... Q: What mistakes are other countries making?

A: The big mistake in the U.S. and Europe, in my opinion, is that people aren’t wearing masks. This virus is transmitted by droplets and close contact. Droplets play a very important role—you’ve got to wear a mask, because when you speak, there are always droplets coming out of your mouth. Many people have asymptomatic or presymptomatic infections. If they are wearing face masks, it can prevent droplets that carry the virus from escaping and infecting others. ...

-------------------------------

Stacks of Urns in Wuhan Prompt New Questions of Virus’s Toll
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-03-27/stacks-of-urns-in-wuhan-prompt-new-questions-of-virus-s-toll

The families of those who succumbed to the virus in the central Chinese city, where the disease first emerged in December, were allowed to pick up their cremated ashes at eight local funeral homes starting this week. As they did, photos circulated on Chinese social media of thousands of urns being ferried in.


http://m.photos.caixin.com/m/2020-03-26/101534542.html

Outside one funeral home, trucks shipped in about 2,500 urns on both Wednesday and Thursday, according to Chinese media outlet Caixin. Another picture published by Caixin showed 3,500 urns stacked on the ground inside. It’s unclear how many of the urns had been filled.

http://photos.caixin.com/2020-03-26/101534542_6.html?NOJP#picture

According to Chinese government figures, 2,535 people in Wuhan have died of the virus. ... But some in China have been skeptical of the accuracy of the official tally, particularly given Wuhan’s overwhelmed medical system, authorities’ attempts to cover up the outbreak in its initial stages, and multiple revisions to the way official cases are counted. Residents on social media have demanded disciplinary action against top Wuhan officials.

[vox_mundi]

Trump Says He Told Pence Not to Call Governors Who Aren't 'Appreciative' of White House Coronavirus Efforts
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/27/coronavirus-trump-told-pence-not-to-call-washington-michigan-governors.html

President Donald Trump said Friday that he instructed Vice President Mike Pence not to reach out to governors who aren't "appreciative" of his administration's efforts to slow the spread of the coronavirus in their states.

He told Vice President Mike Pence, his coronavirus coordinator, to stop calling Gov. Inslee and Gov. Whitmer: “Don’t call the woman in Michigan, doesn’t make any difference,” he said of Ms. Whitmer.

"If they don't treat you right, I don't call," Trump said of those state leaders.

“Very simple. I want them to be appreciative,” he said, saying his administration has “done a hell of a job.”

The president mentioned Washington Gov. Jay Inslee and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, both Democrats who have been critical of the White House's actions to combat the deadly pandemic.

Trump said that Pence "calls all the governors. And I tell him, I'm a different type of person, and I say, 'Mike, don't call the governor of Washington. you're wasting your time with him."

Video at link

https://mobile.twitter.com/cspan/status/1243668061795860481

... if memory serves me correctly, this is called "quid pro quo."

------------------------------

[Sebastian Jones]

             SNIP

More than 90 percent — or 192 cities — said they did not have an adequate supply of face masks for police officers, firefighters and emergency workers. In addition, 92 percent of cities reported a shortage of test kits and 85 percent did not have a sufficient supply of ventilators available to local health facilities.

Roughly two-thirds of the cities said they had not received any emergency equipment or supplies from their state, the report said. And of those that did receive state aid, nearly 85 percent said it was not enough to meet their needs.

In total, the conference tabulated that cities need 28.5 million face masks, 24.4 million other items of personal protection equipment, 7.9 million test kits and 139,000 ventilators

https://www.usmayors.org/issues/covid-19/equipment-survey/


Not Wearing Masks to Protect Against Coronavirus is a ‘Big Mistake,’ Top Chinese Scientist Says
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/not-wearing-masks-protect-against-coronavirus-big-mistake-top-chinese-scientist-says

Interview with George Gao, head of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention ...

... Q: What mistakes are other countries making?

A: The big mistake in the U.S. and Europe, in my opinion, is that people aren’t wearing masks. This virus is transmitted by droplets and close contact. Droplets play a very important role—you’ve got to wear a mask, because when you speak, there are always droplets coming out of your mouth. Many people have asymptomatic or presymptomatic infections. If they are wearing face masks, it can prevent droplets that carry the virus from escaping and infecting others. ...
              SNIP

Telling people not to wear masks because they don't work is very stupid.
Asking people not to wear masks because that frees them up for health care workers is less stupid.
Educating people about how masks work, how they protect the vulnerable and slow the spread of infection and teaching people how to craft and improvise their own is smart.

So what's up?

[Stephen]

I expected so much more from California.
......
The "Macho" mindset so prevalent in California is going to be the cause of much suffering. It's the meek that will win this round.

Terry

Australia is pretty much the same as California.  People whose places of employment have closed are rushing the hardware stores and crowding the aisles and counters.  I live on a hill above a main road and the traffic hasn't changed much, if at all.  Everyone is still going about their business as if nothing has happened.  This is despite impassioned pleas by both the state premier and the Prime Minister to stay at home.

But we are the lucky country.  Our geographic isolation and excellent public health system has so far saved us from the worst.  I wouldn't be surprised if there were a few posters on forums around the world who are accusing Australia of under reporting because we only have 3,000 cases and 13 deaths.

I am of the opinion that there are only 3 possible outcomes:

• everyone gets it and the herd immunity takes over
• a vaccine is developed
• a suitable anti-viral treatment is devised.

I do not believe that eradicating is a possibility.  So the hidden message to "keep the curve under the line" is that we will all get it and the only purpose of social isolation and lock down strategies is to minimise deaths and let the health system cope.

[bluice]

Flattening the curve also buys us time to develop effective medicines, treatments and diagnostics.

It’s not a great strategy of course, but we only have bad options to choose from

[Archimid]

In Texas, a midnight run across the Mexican border gets masks for doctors

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-03-27/masks-from-mexico-doctors-protective-equipment-shortages

Banning’s friend, who had connections in the oil and gas business, had 350 cases of surgical masks from a factory in Mexico. He’d managed to get the shipment over the border, navigating drug cartels and border agents demanding payoffs. Did Banning know anyone who could use them?

Banning, who heads the Texas Academy of Family Physicians, didn’t have to think twice.

“We had physicians tying bandannas around their faces,” he said. “It was like they were fortifying the big urban hospitals and leaving the front-line soldiers to fight without defenses.”

[Pmt111500]

Finnish confirmed cases by provinces as of 27th. Only the now closed province with Helsinki has untraceable cases, says the head doctor of infectious diseases of Helsinki area. The closure is not absolute, though. Essential work-related travellers and children with separated parents can cross the border, so further spread is possible.

Highest numbers elsewhere in Finland mainly indicate places of plenty of returning tourists and their families. As seen, the one province with forest, small farms, mainly little villages, deep snow, poor roads and no tourist attractions has been totally spared.

[Archimid]

Sam, I hope the best for your friends. This may sound stupid and obvious but it is the only advice I have on this. Have them take vitamin C in any way they can. It is what I use at home. It is not a cure, but I'm convinced it helps me.

[Rodius]

In Texas, a midnight run across the Mexican border gets masks for doctors

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-03-27/masks-from-mexico-doctors-protective-equipment-shortages

Banning’s friend, who had connections in the oil and gas business, had 350 cases of surgical masks from a factory in Mexico. He’d managed to get the shipment over the border, navigating drug cartels and border agents demanding payoffs. Did Banning know anyone who could use them?

Banning, who heads the Texas Academy of Family Physicians, didn’t have to think twice.

“We had physicians tying bandannas around their faces,” he said. “It was like they were fortifying the big urban hospitals and leaving the front-line soldiers to fight without defenses.”

Let me get this right..... a person from a wealthy country that is building a huge wall to keep those "nasty" Mexicans out, crosses the border into the poorer country with fewer resources and takes it back to the wealthy country.

That seems rather cruel to me.

[kassy]

https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6040891/80-procent-van-coronapatienten-op-ic-kampt-ook-met-overgewicht.html

80% of dutch IC patients are overweight.

[Archimid]

I think it more of a lesson in humility. It is not cruel to save lives. I think of this person a hero for smuggling medical equipment to save lives.

 I think Trump cornered all the PPE in the US. It is probably sitting in warehouses rotting away, released only when people pledge to the murderous tyrant.

[Pmt111500]

I think it more of a lesson in humility. It is not cruel to save lives. I think of this person a hero for smuggling medical equipment to save lives.

 I think Trump cornered all the PPE in the US. It is probably sitting in warehouses rotting away, released only when people pledge to the murderous tyrant.

How is this different from normal for-profit healthcare in US?

[Archimid]

 

How is this different from normal for-profit healthcare in US?

Typically there is an abundance of resources.

[Pmt111500]

How is this different from normal for-profit healthcare in US?

Typically there is an abundance of resources.

So kill the poor.

[Archimid]

Pretty much, yes. If you don't have the money you don't get the medicine, you die. Same as justice in the US.

But right now, that hero is saving lives in a way that should teach us humility.

[Pmt111500]

Pretty much, yes. If you don't have the money you don't get the medicine, you die. Same as justice in the US.

But right now, that hero is saving lives in a way that should teach us humility.

Ah, so Trump is doing it right reserving resources to the people he likes. There's no difference.

[Archimid]

I replied to you over at the lessons learned thread.

[Alexander555]

Maybe a stupid question, but would it be possible to destroy something like the flu ? I have been reading here that it also spreads over animals. But what would be the effect if you could cut a piece out of the chain ? I will give an example. A few weeks ago i needed a document from the doctor. So i went to the doctor. And we were talking a little bit. And at some point he told me that he was using that alcohol gel for 3 to 4 years now. And before he had a cold like 3 times a year. And now not a single time in 3 to 4 years. And that's pretty remarkable. From 3 times a year to zero times in 3 to 4 years. And that only by using some handgel. And now with the coronavirus, the use of that stuff will probably go up in the next years.

[oren]

Flattening the curve also buys us time to develop effective medicines, treatments and diagnostics.

It’s not a great strategy of course, but we only have bad options to choose from

Buying time also enables a buildup of medical capacities - protective equipment, ventilators and blood oxygenation machines, hospital wards, training nurses and technicians. In a few months the healthcare system could be much more prepared to handle a second wave of infection.

[johnm33]

Mortality monitoring in Europe, http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

[TerryM]

Bruce
No need for thanks.
It is what it is.


I'm taken aback that California hasn't been able to do more WRT isolating & encouraging mask use. California is one of the most progressive States, and is known for its health conscious lifestyle.


Here in Ontario our feckless elected leader often makes Trump seem reasonable, yet he's enacted some rules that will ease the strain on our government owned hospitals & will save the lives and health of many. It won't work perfectly, in fact it probably won't work particularly well unless or until even more businesses are shuttered and many of the loopholes are tightly plugged.


It is however an effort to deal with this novel situation.
The Chinese have proven that these methods can work, and that if they're put in place early enough the virus never gets a chance to do too much damage.
Check the stats from Shandong, the second most populous province in China and close to Hubei, the epicenter of CV19 in China.
Today they have 7 deaths and 752 recovered out of a population of close to 1 Billion.
Are these figures exact? Probably not - on the other hand even if they were under reported by an order of magnitude they'd still be damn impressive.


The subways are again opening up in Wuhan. Life and financial life is returning. - already!


We're not being asked to take up arms against an invading hoard. We're asked to stay home and look after ourselves. We're asked to not overwhelm our local health services. We can do this.


Stay Vigilant. Stay Isolated. Stay in Touch.
And Best of Luck - Because luck will play a huge part in how and if we survive this.
Terry

[Sam]

Sam, I hope the best for your friends. This may sound stupid and obvious but it is the only advice I have on this. Have them take vitamin C in any way they can. It is what I use at home. It is not a cure, but I'm convinced it helps me.

Thanks Archimid,

Depending on the form and source, it might. Quercitin is a part of the vitamin C complex in rose hips and others. Quercitin is known to have helped patients with SARS1. And the supercomputer modeling done by the US Department of Energy identified Quercitin, Luteolin and Yerba Santa as three things that had some of the highest affinities for the ACE2 receptor.

Yerba Santa helps me with lung stuff a lot. Most over the counter or even prescription things do not. I lack a series of critical CYP450 enzymes to convert those to their active forms.

As a result I have had to find pharmacognicolgic solutions (plant source rather than pharmaceuticals). For me in general for lung stuff, Quercitin helps. Yerba Santa helps more. Yerba Mansa too. Sage is somewhat helpful. And oregano seems to be very helpful. But that might just be my love of fish tacos with cabbage and lots of green tomatillo salsa that is about half oregano and cilantro. Then too it might be the cilantro. Cilantro and flat leaf parsley have wonderful medicinal properties.

For pain Corydalis Ambigua (Yanhusuo) is great. So are California Poppy, Tree Peony Root, and magnesium as taurate or glycinate, or skin applied magnesium oil (magnesium chloride hexahydrate). These are all hugely helpful for me. Be careful of taurate with kidney issues. That is not an issue for me. Wild Lettuce should be very useful too, though I haven't tried that. Ditto for myrrh and frankincense.

For vitamin C, sodium ascorbate is better for me than vitamin C proper. It's much easier to tolerate. And an extremely high dose blast of that plus natural vitamin A and D stops coughing. Careful with that though, you can hurt yourself if you don't know what you are doing.

I did recommend Quercitin to them. It is widely and easily available, and well tolerated. It has a very short biological half life. I have yet to find literature or reports, anecdotal or studies detailing success or failure of that, and if successful, at what sort of dosages and when those were helpful.

I am not a doctor, and these are not recommendations for anyone but me.

Addenda: Something I have not seen any data on yet is the differences in CYP and related enzymes, and other genetic differences in the people who have survived versus those who died, or in the various treatments. This is a relatively new but hugely important area.  The CYP450 enzymes (and others) are hugely important in affecting the metabolism of drugs in the body. This can and does have dramatic impacts on choices of medications. Yet the vast majority of people have not been tested for their enzyme statuses, and the physicians have not generally been trained in this yet. There are specific exceptions to that.

Likewise, natural variations in immune function can have huge importance, as can the HLA and HNA typing. I have seen no data on that either. One example here is that certain genetic variations allowed some Europeans to survive the Black Death. Their genetic descendants have often inherited that same native resistance. And that also provides huge resistance to HIV.

This is a double edged sword though. Bacteria and Virii adapt as well. Many important autoimmune diseases have as their origin the HLA genetics and this ancient and on going war.

We do know from studies on this outbreak that people with blood type O are considerably less at risk than types A, B or AB. There have been hints about rhesus blood types too, though I haven't seen that confirmed. I have heard nothing at all about the many other blood group families (e.g. Colton, Kell, Kidd, Lutheran, ...) and whether these cause any differences in susceptibility or disease progression.

There was suggestion early on of a dozen snps associated with the ACE2 receptor that might give indications of differences in susceptibility or disease severity. I have not seen any follow ups on that.

Sam

[Archimid]

johnm33 thanks for that graph.

 I believe that drop is a direct effect of the quarantine. There is no one getting in sports accidents, car accidents, work accidents, people are home with no stress except for daily home life. I bet the rate of respiratory illness must have fallen dramatically given all the handwashing, mask-wearing, disinfection efforts and physical distancing.

Sadly this is not permanent. Food and other issues will complicate the situation unless there is a concerted effort by all segments of society to make things work.

However, if we took this opportunity to attempt to irradicate as many respiratory diseases as possible, and then track them all as if they were C19, the gains could be permanent.

[Sam]

Maybe a stupid question, but would it be possible to destroy something like the flu ? I have been reading here that it also spreads over animals. But what would be the effect if you could cut a piece out of the chain ? I will give an example. A few weeks ago i needed a document from the doctor. So i went to the doctor. And we were talking a little bit. And at some point he told me that he was using that alcohol gel for 3 to 4 years now. And before he had a cold like 3 times a year. And now not a single time in 3 to 4 years. And that's pretty remarkable. From 3 times a year to zero times in 3 to 4 years. And that only by using some handgel. And now with the coronavirus, the use of that stuff will probably go up in the next years.

Alexander,

It's a good question.

The difficulty is in trying to eradicate flu in wild species that also harbor/suffer from flu virus infections. Even if we could completely eliminate all flu in humans, it would still circulate and mutate in birds (and other animals) in the wild. Beyond birds and pigs, other animals also can and do harbor flu. So eradicating all of the wild sources is nigh on impossible by any means we know today.

What looks more realistic is the development of a vaccine against the seldom changing parts of the viral genome. That has been under development for some time now.

Just as flu circulates in birds and swine, the corona viruses in the SARS group circulate in bats, pangolins, civet cats and others.

There is enough difference in the ACE2 receptors between us, bats and the others that it is harder for the virus to be truly multi species as flu is. So, if we can eliminate this particular SARS variant from all humans, it us likely gone for good.

However, as SARS1 and MERS showed us, this whole group is very closely related, and has the ability to jump species pretty easily. Zoonoses from them to us with recombinations with other viruses are increasingly likely with humans expanding farther into their ranges. This will not be humanities last encounter with terrible viruses from this group.

Interestingly, the terminology needs to change to help change the thinking. We still have a very homocentric view of things. We think of "them" (animals) as being sources for infections to jump to humans. In truth, the virii don't care. The jumps occur between species of all types when opportunity and chance allow. We would be better off to think of it in those terms.

Sam

[Sam]

Johnm33,

Yes - thank you for the graph. Everyone looking at it should be cautious to note the change in scales on the left for the various age groups. The differences are very large.


Sam

[kassy]

'Zorgpersoneel al vóór 27 februari besmet'

Wetenschappers hebben deze maand onderzoek gedaan naar medewerkers van het Amphia Ziekenhuis in Breda en het Elisabeth-TweeSteden Ziekenhuis in Tilburg. Van de 1.353 bleken er 86 besmet te zijn (geweest) met het coronavirus. Zeven van hen verklaren dat ze al voor 27 februari, de dag waarop de eerste besmetting bij een 56-jarige patiënt werd vastgesteld, symptomen hadden. Eén medewerker zegt al op 19 februari klachten te hebben gehad. Wat voor klachten deze medewerkers hadden, komt in het onderzoek niet naar voren.

Dat de 56-jarige man niet de eerste was die besmet was geraakt met het virus, komt niet direct als een verrassing voor het Tilburgse ziekenhuis. Directeur Bart Berden zegt tegen het Brabants Dagblad dat hij daar al rekening mee hield: "In de eerste weken dachten we nog: als je geen koorts hebt, ben je niet besmettelijk. Dat bleek dus wel het geval te zijn."

De peerreview van dit onderzoek heeft nog niet plaatsgevonden. In deze fase worden de onderzoeksresultaten beoordeeld door andere experts.

https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6036016/brabants-ziekenhuispersoneel-al-voor-eerste-officiele-patient-besmet.html

So there as been a study under employees in two hospitals.
1353 in total with 86 confirmed cases.

7 of those had the symptoms the week before the first patient was admitted on feb 27th.
1 reported having the symptoms feb 19th

At least that shows that people are contagious before fever which we already knew but the official line still assumed that you needed a fever. Basically designated critical personnel was told not to report sick unless they also had a fever which meant that i met quite some coworkers with sniffles and minor cold symptoms (it being really cold did not help). Not happy about that and i already decided i was going to ignore the fever part if i felt unwell since they are not going to check that any way.

Still did not catch anything but i had a really bad cold aquired from NB in the same week as most early cases mentioned above. If they ask people to volunteer for some antibody test i would gladly take that.

Not sure there is going to be one but it would be interesting to know the current level in immunity in different groups like:
HC workers
Other designated personnel
People with not that many contacts that isolated early
People with kids in 4-12 age group and 13-18 group. Or you could lump them together but especially the young kids are snotty all the time so that is an easy way to spread it when the kids and their parents only have rather mild colds.
 

[Sam]

Another thing I have yet to find is any information on is how asthma impacts on people's risks with COVID-19, or how that impacts the course of the disease.

I have several friends with asthma who are very concerned for good reason. Ditto for autoimmune diseases of various types.

If any of you have stumbled on these I would be most interested and grateful to hear what you found or heard.

Sam

[kassy]

Eradicating flu.

This would probably be a bad idea since you cannot eradicate it from the natural pool.
Flu coming around every year means immunity for most people.

One possible factor in H1N1 hitting the young so hard in 1918 is that the prior flu type that circulated had been more H3 like. There are some hints of this from serotological studies. 

More practcal ideas are really stringent controls on pollution of all types. Growing up near busy roads has the same risk increase over life as being a smoker.

[Tom_Mazanec]

My cousin Sandy was exposed at the dentist office. Another relative might also be exposed.

[Archimid]

Another thing I have yet to find is any information on is how asthma impacts on people's risks with COVID-19, or how that impacts the course of the disease.

I have several friends with asthma who are very concerned for good reason. Ditto for autoimmune diseases of various types.

If any of you have stumbled on these I would be most interested and grateful to hear what you found or heard.

Sam

 Every breath is energy. If you get less energy you can spend less energy.

Perhaps meditation techniques and breathing techniques can help minimize energy spent and help maximize energy intake.

Also Sunlight. You might feel like shit, but if you have access to sunlight it will make you feel better. 

But none of the above is of any help without the water. Drink water until your urine is colorless. I interpret any yellow as an efficiency decrease of the body system.

[be cause]

.. indeed .. take your piss seriously .. stay hydrated . Find a regular puff of cannabis reminds me to hydrate .. b.c.

[vox_mundi]

May partially represent availability of tests

-------------------------------------

Global COVID-19 cases surpass 600,000
https://abcnews.go.com/US/coronavirus-live-updates-global-covid-19-cases-600000/story?id=69850797

The amount of novel coronavirus cases around the world and in the U.S. continues to skyrocket. By Saturday morning, the number of diagnosed COVID-19 cases around the world surpassed 600,000.

It was just Thursday that the globe reached 500,000 cases, which was double the number of coronavirus cases from the week before.

Rhode Island Targeting New York Travelers
https://abcnews.go.com/US/coronavirus-live-updates-global-covid-19-cases-600000/story?id=69850797

A day after announcing all vehicles with New York license plates will be pulled over by state police and travelers informed they must quarantine if they are staying in the state, Rhode Island Gov. Gina Raimondo announced that the National Guard would go door-to-door to make sure New Yorkers are following quarantine orders. ... She said the 14-day quarantine for New York travelers is a law and will be enforced, "it's not a suggestion."

Members of the National Guard will be stationed at bus and train stops, as well as airports to collect personal information form travelers when they arrive. State police officers are doing the same for vehicles they pull over. With that information, Raimondo said authorities would go to hotels, vacation homes and any type of residence to keep track of New York travelers.

All these measures, she said, are designed to let the state have time to get ready for the spread of COVID-19. If Rhode Island were to have an outbreak right now, she said the state and its healthcare system would be overwhelmed.

"We are not ready for a surge of cases," Raimondo said.

[wili]

Here's the link to vox's excellent map: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/us-coronavirus-cases-top-100000-doubling-in-three-days.html

Notice here the the American South is already being affected disproportionately (in per capita terms) to other regions, except for the hot spots of the NYC region and Washington state. I expect that pattern to continue, as Trump encourages his followers to pack the churches on Easter and as reports come in of evangelical ministers continuing to hold large services in the South.

Trump and these ministers much really, really hate the evangelical (and other) Christian laity.

............
On a more personal note, over a week ago, two institutions I interact with daily - weekly, my local grocery coop and a local coffee shop, reported that one worker in each tested positive. That was close.

Now a regular (still!  ) guest at the food shelf I work at says that her room mate tested positive, and a fellow worker at the same volunteer organization and old, close friend says that many of her relatives in another state have it.

The degrees of separation are closing in. I have to assume that this coming week either a family member, a neighbor, or someone I know well and see nearly every day will get it, possibly multiple people in these categories...and of course there is the increasing possibility that I or my wife will get it (if we haven't already...frustrating that there isn't a readily available test to know this basic and useful info).

[Aporia_filia]

First numbers comparing normal death in this time of the year with the impact of the virus. In Spain.
Translated with Deepl from "eldiario.es"

The impact on lives and health of the coronavirus epidemic in Spain is very high and has not yet abated. Although the speed of death has slowed in all communities, this Saturday reached the 5,690 official deaths by adding 832 in 24 hours. The COVID-19 has been felt very strongly and has almost doubled the usual mortality in many areas of Spain such as Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Madrid, Aragón or Navarra. On a national level, the excess of deaths over the historical series between 21 and 25 March was 16.7%, according to the latest report published by the Carlos III Institute of Health.

On those days, the expected deaths in Spain (obtained from historical averages based on the mortality observed on 1 January 2008) were 5,661. Deaths from all causes: the observation does not distinguish between causes as it is based on data submitted by 3,900 civil registries. Those finally observed reached 6,609, an excess of 948. However, the panorama is very different according to Autonomous Community. There were "excess deaths" in Aragón, Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Catalunya, Comunitat Valenciana, Comunidad de Madrid and Navarra according to the situation report of 26 March 2020.

The two castes are the ones that have suffered an acceleration in mortality. Both exceed 93% excess. In Castile and Leon, the statistics estimated that 498 deaths could be expected from 18 to 25 March and 964 were observed. In Castile-La Mancha (between the 15th and 25th of this month) there were 1,137 real deaths compared to the average of 558. Another aspect that points to the effect of the COVID-19 is that the groups most affected by the increase in mortality were men (with more than 100% excess) and the ages of over 74 in Castile and Leon and 65 to 74 in Castile-La Mancha, which more than doubled the volume of deaths. According to studies carried out since the first outbreak in Wuhan (China), men and the elderly are the group with the worst diagnosis of infection.

In Aragon, from March 23rd to 25th, according to the Carlos III Institute of Health, the excess reached 75% and the group with the worst unemployment was that of 65 to 74 years of age, which long doubled its mortality: from 12 estimated to 25 reais. In the Autonomous Community of Navarre, it jumped from a historical estimate of 48 deaths to the 90 recorded. Once again, the age between 65-74 years saw a rise of 133% (from 6 to 14) and that of over 74 years of 97%: 70 deaths as opposed to the average of 36.

However, in the epicenter of the epidemic in Spain, the Community of Madrid, the data are much more behind. The system has detected an excess mortality between 10 and 17 March of 71%: 1,548 deaths compared to the 904 expected.

The Daily Mortality Surveillance (MoMo) system applies to all causes of death and in providing the results it does not specify whether the deceased had been included in the official coronavirus count, which only feeds into records where a case has been confirmed by a test as positive for COVID-19. That is, there may be deaths of patients with coronavirus that are not officially attributed to that statistic.

In addition, the report details that "at present we observe a delay in the notification of deaths in the civil registries of several autonomous communities, being notable in Galicia, Community of Madrid and La Rioja".

[Sigmetnow]

Chris Hayes (@chrislhayes) 3/27/20, 6:34 PM
I mean the president all but told sick people in Michigan to drop dead because their lady governor is too mouthy.

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1243667850755223552

March 27
Trump, Michigan governor trade jabs as state's virus cases mount

DETROIT (Reuters) - President Donald Trump and Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan took fresh swipes at each other over the spread of the coronavirus, escalating a war of words as the state braces to become one of the hardest hit by the pandemic.

Whitmer sent a letter to Trump on Thursday seeking a major disaster declaration for Michigan, which along with other hotspots for the coronavirus has been struggling to cope with a surge in hospitalizations and a shortage of supplies and tests for the illness.

She challenged Trump to stand with the people of Michigan in a tweet on Thursday night, after he criticized her handling of the coronavirus spread and said she relied too much on the federal government.

“I’ve asked repeatedly and respectfully for help. We need it. No more political attacks, just PPEs, ventilators, N95 masks, test kits. You said you stand with Michigan — prove it,” Whitmer said.

Trump said on a Fox News interview earlier that he has had a “big problem with the young, a woman governor” from Michigan.

“I mean, she’s not stepping up. I don’t know if she knows what’s going on, but all she does is sit there and blame the federal government. She doesn’t get it done, and we send her a lot,” Trump said.

He demurred on whether he would approve the disaster declaration, saying “we’ll have to make a decision on that”. ...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-michigan-idUSKBN21E2PI

[vox_mundi]

Friday evening in Europe - February 28 vs March 27



https://mobile.twitter.com/flightradar24/status/1243636371950120961

In case there’s any doubt about how hard it is to get to, from or between nations in Africa at present.



And flights globally for the last three months



----------------------

Police enforcing the coronavirus lockdown in South Africa fired rubber bullets at shoppers queuing outside a supermarket in Johannesburg, according to an Agence France-Presse photographer.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/28/coronavirus-live-news-cases-in-italy-overtake-china-us-infections-pass-100000

The agency said about 10 police vehicles had arrived in Yeoville, a poor part of the city’s central business district, where several hundred people who had gathered outside a Shoprite supermarket were failing to observe physical distancing rules.

Startled shoppers trampled on each other and a woman with a baby on her back fell to the ground, the report said. Police later used whips to get the shoppers into line.

South Africa, which has 1,170 confirmed coronavirus cases, recorded its first death from the virus on Friday.

The country’s president, Cyril Ramaphosa, has ordered the population of 57 million to stay at home for 21 days, and has deployed the security forces to enforce the lockdown.

[John_The_Elder]

Another thing I have yet to find is any information on is how asthma impacts on people's risks with COVID-19, or how that impacts the course of the disease.

I have several friends with asthma who are very concerned for good reason. Ditto for autoimmune diseases of various types.

If any of you have stumbled on these I would be most interested and grateful to hear what you found or heard.

Sam

Hi Sam, as an asthma sufferer myself I too am very interested in this discussion. I had a telephone chat with my doctor yesterday, he provided me with this link.....https://college.acaai.org/acaai-statement-covid-19-and-asthma-allergy-and-immune-deficiency-patients-3-12-20.
Take care stay safe
John

[wili]

Eventually, there will be a growing number of people who have had this and, presumably (especially since the virus seems to be relatively stable right now), will not be able to get it again.

To the extent we can identify those people, they can be the ones that can go to work, and maybe relieve pressure on others who can stay at home. There seems to be some movement in this direction now, at least in England:

Antibody testing for all is on the horizon

Cheap, reliable antibody tests that reveal whether someone has previously had Covid-19 are viewed as crucial for managing the next phase of the pandemic. Population-level screening can gauge the overall level of immunity and can allow people to incrementally return to work. Various teams around the world are already using lab-based antibody testing, but this is challenging to scale up, partly because the tests need to be performed a few weeks after infection. In parallel, companies have been working on home-testing kits that work something like a pregnancy test. This week, the UK government signalled it thought such tests could be reliable enough, announcing it had bought 3.5m testing kits, with a view to making them available first to healthcare workers, and then to the public through high street chemists or Amazon delivery. An unnamed prototype is being validated in Oxford this week and the proposal still hinges on the tests’ performance. “The one thing that is worse than no test is a bad test,” Chris Whitty, England’s chief medical officer, said on Wednesday. In Spain, the government was forced to withdraw 9,000 Chinese-made coronavirus testing kits from use after it emerged that they had an accurate detection rate of just 30%.

By the end of the summer, the pandemic will have directly killed 2.2 million Americans, notwithstanding those who will indirectly die as hospitals are unable to care for the usual slew of heart attacks, strokes, and car accidents.

 Granted he's talking about worst case scenario...but isn't that pretty much where we are?

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-will-coronavirus-end/608719/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share&fbclid=IwAR0c3K1R7fvVJZM7GYPp2SnL0Ri-46Y7t0iEOJf8LbU0L5t9OLtu1MA9B9U

[Jim Hunt]

The latest numbers from the UK:

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public#number-of-cases

As of 9am on 28 March 2020, a total of 120,776 people have been tested, of which 103,687 were confirmed negative and 17,089 were confirmed positive.

As of 5pm on 27 March 2020, 1,019 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.

That's 260 deaths in 24 hours.

[Richard Rathbone]

UK Positives are now up to 2500 out of 7000 tests, its still jam tomorrow on increased testing and the ability to even test all suspected COVID hospital admissions must be about to expire, if it hasn't already.

[gandul]

This is probably what is coming for all Americans. Expect start hearing experts everywhere explaining how good these are for everyone.

This probably comes motivated by the fact Trump is wanting to resume activity by the end of Easter. And probably enabled by mass importation from China, back on business.

Anybody remembers last time Trump said 'Chinese Virus'?

[TobiR]

Mortality monitoring in Europe, http://www.euromomo.eu/index.html

Am I seeing it right that there's been a decreasing mortality spike over the last years? Followed by a crude question if so; is there an effect of corona catching up on those who would have expectedly passed but saved by an uptick in flu-vaccinations and/or milder winters in general?

[El Cid]

Coronavirus rapid test+contact tracing = coronavirus is beaten

I think this is very important news:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/abbott-labs-receives-fda-approval-for-rapid-covid-19-test-2020-03-27

"The company said that the molecular point-of-care test can be run with one of Abbot's portable platforms called ID Now and will detect a positive result for COVID-19 in "as little as five minutes" and determine negative results in 13 minutes. The portable testing platform weighs 6.6 pounds and is about the size of a small toaster, the company said, and is "already the most widely available molecular point-of-care testing platform in the U.S. today."

Once you beat the first wave and have a cheap, rapid test, the virus is in effect beaten.
 
It really is simple:

Everyone reporting to work or school must have his / her temperature measured every morning and anyone above 37 C is immediately tested for COVID19. If positive, anyone he came into close contact with is also tested and so on. 

This way the virus' spread is extremely slowed down.

Ain't it so?