Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Poll

How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 67

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 233594 times)

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17519
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 811
  • Likes Given: 296
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4350 on: March 30, 2020, 02:59:08 PM »
“You cannot tell the ship to stay at sea forever, but also do it in a thoughtful and transparent way that helps to protect the lives of people in South Florida.  That needs to be the goal.”

Cruise ship with sick passengers could come to Fort Lauderdale - South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Quote
A Holland America cruise ship, carrying four bodies and scores of patients with coronavirus-like symptoms, has been given permission to cross the Panama Canal, allowing them to continue their journey toward Florida, the cruise line’s president said Sunday.

The Zandaam and Rotterdam, where some passengers were transferred, may be heading to Fort Lauderdale or Miami.

The wait staff is from the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia, many of whom are sick and need medical help, she said.
“This was a grand adventure that turned deeply tragic,” she said.

LeAnn Morris Pliske, of Fort Lauderdale, said when she first heard about the ship bound for Fort Lauderdale she thought “oh that’s terrible — we don’t want that here.” Then she learned her aunt and uncle were on board.

“These are innocent people caught up in a nightmare. They are on 24-hour lockdown in their cabins. Have you ever been locked in one room for more than a week?” she said. “Seems like jail to me. My poor aunt is in the same stateroom she was sharing with her husband whom she watched expire on the floor despite the crew’s efforts at revival. And she has to sit there, 24 hours a day, until some country will let the ships dock.”

The cruise ship, on a South American journey, was first denied entry into Chile. Since then, four people died, two just tested positive for the new coronavirus, and the number of passengers and crew with flu-like symptoms has ballooned to 138.

Several Broward County commissioners were alarmed at the idea of the Zaandam docking at Port Everglades.

Commissioner Michael Udine said early Sunday that Port Everglades notified county commissioners late Saturday with its mandates for the passengers including: All illnesses and conditions must be accurately disclosed and documented; the cruise line, at its expense, will provide all protective equipment to all responders; temperature readings are required for all disembarking crew and passengers; and the cruise line, at its expense, will arrange for private ambulance transportation, among other requirements.

To minimize exposure, passengers are allowed off the ship with only one piece of luggage with essential items. The cruise line would sanitize all other luggage, according to Port Everglades regulations.

And, “no less than 24 hours in advance of the start of debarkation, the cruise line will present a security plan for review and approval ... how passengers will debark orderly, safely and in compliance with current health advisories (i.e. social distancing). Failure to maintain good order may result in an immediate suspension of the debarkation until the situation is under control,” according to the guidelines.

Udine said the ship’s pending arrival would be discussed at Tuesday’s scheduled county commission meeting. It will take the ship 72 hours to get to Port Everglades after it passes through the Panama Canal.
https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-sick-ship-approval-fort-lauderdale-20200329-pymhibz6bvduxbwfgk2mil23ku-story.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

The Walrus

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 418
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 66
  • Likes Given: 19
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4351 on: March 30, 2020, 03:22:51 PM »
Sigma, nice graphs.  The exponential rise lasts about 10 days - 2 weeks after the initial infection.  After 20 days, the rate slows, and seems to plateau at about one month.  That gives us optimism in this fight.  Yesterday saw a drop in new cases and deaths in many of the most infected areas.

gandul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 396
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 117
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4352 on: March 30, 2020, 03:36:50 PM »
Thanks Vox-Mundi excellent summary!!!
Austria to force masks on people at supermarkets?
Dang!
Swedes permitted to cycle and meet at cafés?
Sweeet!

Amazing the range of answers given by countries. I bet they will eventually converge to a very few range of science-based solutions that also permit economic activity, as this crisis might last for 12-18 months, (according to UK experts).

gandul

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 396
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 117
  • Likes Given: 7
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4353 on: March 30, 2020, 03:43:32 PM »
Today my niece (nurse) cheered the first discharged patient (after 20+ days) in her plant. A deceleration in cases may take 15 days of lock-down, but It will take very very long for hospitals to recover a minimum resemblance of normalcy.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1956
  • Likes Given: 249
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4354 on: March 30, 2020, 03:49:05 PM »
Johnson & Johnson says Human Testing of Its Coronavirus Vaccine to Begin by September
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/03/30/johnson-johnson-to-begin-clinical-trials-on-coronavirus-vaccine-candidate.html

Johnson & Johnson said Monday human testing of its experimental vaccine for the coronavirus will begin phase 1 human clinical study by September and if successful it could be available for emergency use authorization in early 2021.

On top of a lead vaccine candidate, J&J said it has two back-ups. The company said it began working on COVID-19 vaccine development in January.

The company said it is also increasing its manufacturing capacity with a new site in the U.S. and additions to existing sites in other countries to produce and distribute the potential vaccine quickly

-------------------------------

FDA issues emergency-use authorization for anti-malaria drugs amid coronavirus outbreak
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/490110-fda-issues-emergency-use-authorization-for-anti-malaria-drugs-amid?amp

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Sunday issued an emergency-use authorization for a pair of anti-malaria drugs as health officials work to combat the rapid spread of the novel coronavirus.

The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said in a statement that the authorization would allow 30 million doses of hydroxychloroquine sulfate and 1 million doses of chloroquine phosphate to be donated to the Strategic National Stockpile. The doses of hydroxychloroquine sulfate were donated by Sandoz, while the chloroquine phosphate was developed by Bayer Pharmaceuticals.

The products will be "distributed and prescribed by doctors to hospitalized teen and adult patients with COVID-19, as appropriate, when a clinical trial is not available or feasible," HHS said.

President Trump has repeatedly touted the anti-malaria drugs as a possible coronavirus "game changer," despite warnings from health officials that not enough is known about their effects on COVID-19.

-------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17519
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 811
  • Likes Given: 296
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4355 on: March 30, 2020, 03:57:19 PM »
Tokyo Olympics to start in July 2021 after coronavirus rescheduling
Quote
The Tokyo Olympics will take place between 23 July and 8 August next year.

The International Olympic Committee confirmed the news on Monday, following a meeting of the Tokyo 2020 organising committee. A decision to postpone the Olympic and Paralympic Games was taken last week by the IOC and the Japanese government because of the accelerating threat posed by the coronavirus pandemic.

Sebastian Coe says delaying Olympics relieved 'mental turmoil' of athletes

A statement from the IOC also confirmed the new dates for the Paralympic Games, which will take place on 24 August to 5 September.

“These new dates give the health authorities and all involved in the organisation of the Games the maximum time to deal with the constantly changing landscape and the disruption caused by the Covid-19 pandemic,” the statement read. “The new dates, exactly one year after those originally planned for 2020, also have the added benefit that any disruption that the postponement will cause to the international sports calendar can be kept to a minimum, in the interests of the athletes and the international federations.

“Additionally, they will provide sufficient time to finish the qualification process. The same heat mitigation measures as planned for 2020 will be implemented.” ...
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/30/tokyo-olympics-to-start-in-july-2021-after-coronavirus-rescheduling
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

kassy

  • Moderator
  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1965
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1108
  • Likes Given: 764
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4356 on: March 30, 2020, 04:01:43 PM »
Dutch numbers

Deaths
864 +93

For context excess mortality in our worst recent flu season was 9444 over 15 weeks or 630 per week same demographic mostly: https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

3990 in hospital (all historical cases)
1053 in IC 995 positives others on clinical signs.

11750 +884 confirmed

Less new cases/hospital admissions in NB. Most in N and S Holland and in Limburg/Gelderland.

https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6041297/in-totaal-864-nederlandse-coronapatienten-overleden-1053-mensen-op-ics.html
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1956
  • Likes Given: 249
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4357 on: March 30, 2020, 04:05:36 PM »
Concern as Powers Handed to Hungarian Prime Minister to Counter Covid-19
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/30/coronavirus-live-news-us-deaths-could-reach-200000-uk-warned-six-month-lockdown-covid-19-latest-updates

Sweeping new powers to fight the coronavirus outbreak with an open-ended mandate have been secured by Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, after parliament passed a law submitted by his government with a strong majority of the ruling Fidesz party.

Orban, who has gradually increased his power during a decade in power, had asked for an extension of a state of emergency that would give his nationalist government the right to pass decrees to handle the coronavirus crisis.

... Today is the day an EU member state becomes a full-on dictatorship, as Viktor Orbán will seize unlimited power in Hungary.
https://twitter.com/astroehlein/status/1244501617141002241

---------------------------

A motorsport chief, Helmut Marko (age 76), has revealed he suggested that his Red Bull team’s drivers should try to become infected with coronavirus as it is the “ideal time” with the season on hold.

(... I think Helmut should go first)

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/30/helmut-marko-wanted-red-bull-f1-drivers-to-deliberately-catch-coronavirus

---------------------------

A couple in Northern Ireland who were married for 53 years died within hours of each other after contracting coronavirus.

Christopher Vallely, 79, and his wife Isobel, 77, died over the weekend in the same room at the Mater hospital in Belfast.

R.I.P.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/30/coronavirus-live-news-us-deaths-could-reach-200000-uk-warned-six-month-lockdown-covid-19-latest-updates

-------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1956
  • Likes Given: 249
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4358 on: March 30, 2020, 04:27:38 PM »
An Experimental Peptide Could Block COVID-19
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-experimental-peptide-block-covid-.html

A team of MIT chemists has designed a drug candidate that they believe may block coronaviruses' ability to enter human cells. The potential drug is a short protein fragment, or peptide, that mimics a protein found on the surface of human cells.

The researchers have shown that their new peptide can bind to the viral protein that coronaviruses use to enter human cells, potentially disarming it.

The MIT team reported its initial findings in a preprint posted on bioRxiv, an online preprint server, on March 20. They have sent samples of the peptide to collaborators who plan to carry out tests in human cells.

... Studies of SARS-CoV-2 have also shown that a specific region of the spike protein, known as the receptor binding domain, binds to a receptor called angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). This receptor is found on the surface of many human cells, including those in the lungs. The ACE2 receptor is also the entry point used by the coronavirus that caused the 2002-03 SARS outbreak.

Pentelute's lab, performed computational simulations of the interactions between the ACE2 receptor and the receptor binding domain of the coronavirus spike protein. These simulations revealed the location where the receptor binding domain attaches to the ACE2 receptor—a stretch of the ACE2 protein that forms a structure called an alpha helix.

The MIT team then used peptide synthesis technology that Pentelute's lab has previously developed, to rapidly generate a 23-amino acid peptide with the same sequence as the alpha helix of the ACE2 receptor. ... One advantage of such a drug is that they are relatively easy to manufacture in large quantities. They also have a larger surface area than small-molecule drugs.

"Peptides are larger molecules, so they can really grip onto the coronavirus and inhibit entry into cells, whereas if you used a small molecule, it's difficult to block that entire area that the virus is using," Pentelute says. "Antibodies also have a large surface area, so those might also prove useful. Those just take longer to manufacture and discover."

They also synthesized a shorter sequence of only 12 amino acids found in the alpha helix, and then tested both of the peptides using equipment at MIT's Biophysical Instrumentation Facility that can measure how strongly two molecules bind together. They found that the longer peptide showed strong binding to the receptor binding domain of the COVID-19 spike protein, while the shorter one showed negligible binding.

One drawback of peptide drugs is that they typically can't be taken orally, so they would have to be either administered intravenously or injected under the skin. They would also need to be modified so that they can stay in the bloodstream long enough to be effective, which Pentelute's lab is also working on.

G. Zhang et al. The first-in-class peptide binder to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, bioRxiv (2020)
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.19.999318v1

---------------------------

COVID-19 patients often infected with other respiratory viruses, preliminary study reports
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-covid-patients-infected-respiratory-viruses.html

About one in five people with COVID-19 are also infected with other respiratory viruses, according to a preliminary analysis led by Ian Brown, MD, a clinical associate professor of emergency medicine at the Stanford School of Medicine.

In addition, the analysis found that about one in 10 people who exhibit symptoms of respiratory illness at an emergency department, and who are subsequently diagnosed with a common respiratory virus, are co-infected with the COVID-19 virus.

The findings challenge the assumption that people are unlikely to have COVID-19 if they have another type of viral respiratory disease.

"Currently, if a patient tests positive for a different respiratory virus, we believe that they don't have COVID-19," ... "However, given the co-infection rates we've observed in this sample, that is an incorrect assumption."

"Hospitals don't have unlimited access to COVID testing," Brown said . "In some cases, a patient with respiratory symptoms may first be tested for a non-COVID virus. If there is a diagnosis of influenza or rhinovirus, or other respiratory virus, a hospital may discharge the patient without COVID testing, concluding that the alternative diagnosis is the reason for the symptoms."

Higher co-infection rates in COVID19.
https://medium.com/@nigam/higher-co-infection-rates-in-covid19-b24965088333

------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1956
  • Likes Given: 249
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4359 on: March 30, 2020, 05:00:42 PM »
Crew from Two Russian Submarines Quarantined
https://www.maritime-executive.com/article/crew-from-two-russian-submarines-quarantined

The crew from two Russian submarines have been placed in quarantine after a visitor to one of the vessels was found to have met with someone that tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19).

The nuclear-powered Orel has a crew of around 110 sailors and sails as part of Russia's Northern Fleet. She was based on the Kola peninsula in Russia's northwest at the time of the contact, and the crew of a nearby submarine and the personnel on a floating workshop have also been quarantined, according to The Barents Observer.

Russia is currently building 16 medical centers, with a total capacity of 1,600 beds, with construction workers deployed around the clock in three shifts. The first medical center, in Nizhny Novgorod, will be commissioned by April 20 this year, and eight of the centers will also have medical equipment. All are expected to be operational by mid-May. Each facility will be from 5,000 to 12,000 square meters, and construction will be completed within 40 to 56 days. The staff for the centers are currently undergoing special training at the Military Medical Academy.

----------------------------

Now Both Aircraft Carriers In The Western Pacific Have COVID-19 Cases, Raising Readiness Concerns
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/32772/now-both-aircraft-carriers-in-the-western-pacific-have-covid-19-cases-raising-readiness-concerns

Two sailors onboard the Nimitz class aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan, which forward-deployed in Japan and presently pier-side there, have tested positive for the COVID-19 novel coronavirus. This comes just a day after the U.S. Navy announced it had quarantined the entire crew of another aircraft carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, on their ship in port in Guam after a number of sailors contracted the virus. The War Zone had already warned that the Roosevelt's predicament could be an ominous sign of what's to come for the Navy. If Reagan is sidelined, as well, the service would have no carriers presently deployed in the Pacific region that can actually operate.

... There are now fears that the virus could spread further among personnel on Guam as individuals from the USS Theodore Roosevelt are brought ashore for treatment. "We’re fucked," one servicemember reportedly told The Daily Beast in regards to the developing situation there.

... The U.S. military as a whole may be heading toward a concerning drop in readiness, too. The 1918 influenza pandemic had similarly significant impacts on the Navy, as well as the Marines and the rest of the U.S. armed forces. That virus killed more American service members than had died in the fighting in World War I.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

El Cid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1013
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 407
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4360 on: March 30, 2020, 05:18:17 PM »
Concern as Powers Handed to Hungarian Prime Minister to Counter Covid-19
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/30/coronavirus-live-news-us-deaths-could-reach-200000-uk-warned-six-month-lockdown-covid-19-latest-updates

Sweeping new powers to fight the coronavirus outbreak with an open-ended mandate have been secured by Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, after parliament passed a law submitted by his government with a strong majority of the ruling Fidesz party.

Orban, who has gradually increased his power during a decade in power, had asked for an extension of a state of emergency that would give his nationalist government the right to pass decrees to handle the coronavirus crisis.

... Today is the day an EU member state becomes a full-on dictatorship, as Viktor Orbán will seize unlimited power in Hungary.
https://twitter.com/astroehlein/status/1244501617141002241


Oh yes! He is going full Palpatine

Richard Rathbone

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 739
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 112
  • Likes Given: 10
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4361 on: March 30, 2020, 06:12:13 PM »
As of 9am on 30 March 2020, a total of 134,946 people have been tested, of which 112,805 were confirmed negative and 22,141 were confirmed positive.

As of 5pm on 29 March 2020, 1,408 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.

Thats 2107 out of 7209 tests positive. Still less than the 10k/day claimed.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1956
  • Likes Given: 249
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4362 on: March 30, 2020, 06:30:49 PM »
https://www.defenseone.com/news/2020/03/the-d-brief-march-30-2020/164199/

A planeload of desperately needed medical supplies arrived from China to New York on Sunday, “the first in a series of flights over the next 30 days organized by the White House to help fight the coronavirus, (... and dig them out of a hole to save tRump's ass)” Reuters reported.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-trump-airlift-idUSKBN21G0LB

Let’s hope that equipment works, unlike this stuff from China sent to Turkey, Spain and the Czech Republic — who collectively had to throw out thousands of tests sent by China because they don’t work. Oh, and the Netherlands also announced late last week nearly half of its Chinese masks (600,000 of 1.3 million acquired) are actually defective.

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/coronavirus-turkey-faulty-chinese-kits-not-use

https://www.businessinsider.com/coroanvirus-holland-recalls-over-half-a-million-masks-imported-from-china-2020-3

Meanwhile, the federal government is beginning to release gear from “a beleaguered national stockpile.” As of Saturday, the Washington Post reported, Massachusetts had received 17% of its requested equipment; Maine, about 5%; and Colorado, enough “for one day.” Florida, whose governor enjoys a good relationship with President Trump, has received a whopping 200%, with more on the way. (... maybe the others didn't kiss his ring)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/desperate-for-medical-equipment-states-encounter-a-beleaguered-national-stockpile/2020/03/28/1f4f9a0a-6f82-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story.html

-----------------------

President Trump said today on Fox when asked about Chinese misinformation about coronavirus,

“They do it and We do it… Every country does that.”


https://twitter.com/ToluseO/status/1244601395162071041

--------------------------

BTW, you are being tracked: ... “Government officials across the U.S. are using location data from millions of cellphones in a bid to better understand the movements of Americans during the coronavirus pandemic and how they may be affecting the spread of the disease.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/government-tracking-how-people-move-around-in-coronavirus-pandemic-11585393202
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Alexander555

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1183
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 114
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4363 on: March 30, 2020, 07:32:31 PM »
Is there a way to see how many people are tested in Italy and New York ?

Steven

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 591
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 170
  • Likes Given: 17
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4364 on: March 30, 2020, 08:56:49 PM »
Is there a way to see how many people are tested in Italy and New York ?

In the last few days, New York state has been testing about 15,000 people per day and Italy about 30,000 people per day.  Daily numbers here:

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-york/
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/tree/master/schede-riepilogative/regioni  (tamponi = swab tests)

Sam

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 417
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 373
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4365 on: March 30, 2020, 09:08:41 PM »
Quite an effort to keep track of sam’s various projections for the US death toll.  25 million, 5 million, 12 million.

We have Dr. Fauci now using a range of 100-200k.  You would expect him to not be the type to exaggerate, so perhaps this is on the low and uncertain side.

Despite some of the generalizations here that the US population is flouting guidance and society is operating BAU, a large number of Americans have been under some degree of physical distancing and/or stay at home orders.  There is some evidence in a few larger metros of case growth slowing.  Too early to draw conclusions, and yes that spreads out the effect over time until there is a vaccine.

I’m in an urban area of Florida, and expect a very bad April and May due to demographics and slow adoption of measures across the state.  Even so, in the absence of data or facts I wouldn’t expect the catastrophic tolls statewide or nationally that some here are pushing.

The future is constantly in motion. As events change, as new data comes in projections (these are neither forecasts nor predictions) do change.

People get hung up on numbers. In catastrophes, projections form a key tool in assessing where things are headed so that experts, decision makers, and all of the emergency managers, planners, responders can prepare and work to CHANGE conditions to reduce the future projected impacts.

Do NOT ever make the mistake of thinking that any of these projections are cast in stone. The only projections that are close to that are the near term projections that account for the lag time between infection and confirmation. Even these have large uncertainties. And don’t think of those as uncertainty bounds. This isn’t statistics, and we have nothing like a representative or full sample assessment. The larger the base of information, the closer the projections are likely to be.

Also, do NOT allow your emotions, wants or desires to enter into this. Doing so if you have any influence at all gets people injured and killed.

Sam

Alexander555

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1183
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 114
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4366 on: March 30, 2020, 09:09:12 PM »
So Italy did 500 000 tests and 100 000 are positive. And New York did 170 000 tests and 66000 are positive. And Italy has a population of 60 million, and the state New York 20 million. That probably means that many people in New York got infected in a very short timeframe. Otherwise they would have noticed it faster in the hospitals.

Sam

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 417
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 373
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4367 on: March 30, 2020, 09:09:55 PM »
I don't know about Seattle, maybe the infection rate has dropped from 2.7 to 1.4 only, but in Europe, the drop must be so much bigger. Car traffic has fallen by 70%, public transport use by 80-90% in Budapest, no kids go to school, most people work from home, etc.
 
Even if the original R0 was 3, it must be very significantly below 1 by now. Same probably true for most of Europe. Europe is peaking right now (except for idiots who wouldn't do quarantine)

“Must be” doesn’t enter into it. That is an emotional driver. There is what is and what isn’t. That is what matters.

Sam

Addenda: I should also note that in real events conflicting information is frequent. Sorting out what is meaningful and real is critically important. Until that happens, all of it has to be considered potentially credible and acted upon to the degree possible, with caveats.

Many real world disasters and catastrophes were made vastly worse because key decision makers locked up at key points and chose which information they wanted to believe. Chernobyl is one of those. Often the decision makers in those cases decided that the right information “must be” XYZ. 
« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 09:40:39 PM by Sam »

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1956
  • Likes Given: 249
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4368 on: March 30, 2020, 09:15:20 PM »
The Desire for Information: Blissful Ignorance or Painful Truth?
https://m.phys.org/news/2020-03-desire-blissful-painful-truth.html

Recent work has found that people at times prefer less information, even when this means they might not be able to make fully informed decisions. However, little is known about the prevalence of such avoidance. Who are the people who choose blissful ignorance over facing reality?

Are some people generally averse to learning information that could be painful, or do most people have some areas of their lives in which they would like to face the truth and others in which they would rather remain uninformed? To address questions such as these, and measure individual preferences for obtaining or avoiding information, researchers crafted 11 scenarios involving three domains—personal health, finances and other people's perceptions of oneself—in which there was information that could help the respondent to make better decisions but might be painful to learn. For each scenario, over 2,000 respondents indicated whether they would want to receive information or to remain ignorant.

https://cmu.ca1.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_0oYP0OROwDv1f2l

The study showed that the desire to avoid information is widespread, and that most people had at least some domains, be it their health, finances or perception by others, in which they preferred to remain uninformed. The study also showed that the desire for information was consistent over time; those who expressed a preference for avoiding information at one point in time expressed similar preferences when asked again weeks later.

Furthermore, how people responded to the hypothetical scenarios predicted real consequential decisions they were presented with to receive or avoid obtaining information.


Although information may feel painful in the moment, such knowledge often leads to better decisions in the future. The researchers found that people who are more impatient are also more likely to avoid learning information, preferring to avoid the prospect of immediate pain rather than make better long-term decisions. Information is also uncertain in that it can be either good news or bad news, and survey respondents who were more willing to take risks with monetary stakes were also more likely to want to learn information, risking bad news for the possibility of good news.

The study, "Measuring Information Preferences" is published in the journal Management Science.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4248
  • Fans of Hans Ø Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1444
  • Likes Given: 2257
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4369 on: March 30, 2020, 09:28:31 PM »
TIL

Why do some viruses, such as influenza, quickly mutate (thus require different vaccinations annually), but other viruses, such as smallpox seem to barely mutate at all (or at least much more slowly)?

u/MXPi wrote:
Quote
One reason why is that viruses like corona and influenza are single-stranded RNA viruses and smallpox is a double-stranded DNA virus.
If you have a single-stranded genome, there is no repair mechanism and mutations occur much more frequently.

u/igotlocked wrote:
Quote
Another reason for some viruses such as influenza is that their genome is actually segmented! If a host has more than one strain of influenza, the segments can be mixed up and you have a rapid sudden form of mutation called antigenic shift. The other commonly known form of mutation that occurs over time due to replication errors is called antigenic drift.

u/iayork wrote:
Quote
Coronaviruses in general have slightly slower mutation rates than influenza, but they’re still very high. However, while they can and do readily accumulate mutations (NextStrain.com shows hundreds of mutations that the virus has made over the past few months) the default assumption - for good reasons - is that these mutations are neutral and don’t affect the virus function or antigenicity.
If we look at the four endemic human coronaviruses, they show some signs of slow antigenic change, which hints that coronaviruses might be able to tolerate some changes in their proteins, but clearly not to anywhere near the extent of influenza. If we have to guess (and without data it’s mainly a guess) it seems likely that a vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will be effective for many years, perhaps 5-10 years, before the virus drifts enough that it might need an update. Maybe not quite as good as measles, but hopefully much better than influenza.


Link >> https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/frkvaa/why_do_some_viruses_such_as_influenza_quickly/
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

Alexander555

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1183
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 114
  • Likes Given: 40
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4370 on: March 30, 2020, 09:37:24 PM »
In  Africa they are wearing masks. And even medical staff in Europe and the US have to beg to get some. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/nigeria-announces-lockdown-major-cities-curb-coronavirus-200330095100706.html

blumenkraft

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 4248
  • Fans of Hans Ø Club - circa 2018
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1444
  • Likes Given: 2257
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4371 on: March 30, 2020, 09:45:38 PM »
On Diamond Princess researchers found coronavirus RNA 17 days after the ship was vacated. Does this suggest that we can get Coronavirus from surfaces up to 17 days later?

u/RETYKIN wrote:
Quote
No.
The full virus particle is made of a lipid shell studded with proteins, which harbors the viral RNA on the inside. Only intact viral particles can infect the body's cells. That's why you should wash your hands with soap - soap destroys the lipid shell.
The only reliable way of detecting intact viral particles (e.g. on a surface) is to expose living cells to that surface and see if they get infected. This is the kind of test that the NIH study used. It's quite laborious and unfortunately cannot be done routinely.
The test that was done on the cruise ship is based on amplification of the RNA component of the virus with a technique called reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). It's relatively cheap, easy to set up and perform, and therefore the main type of testing that is currently available worldwide. This test detects a specific sequence of the viral RNA, and it doesn't matter whether it came from infectious intact viral particles or broken ones. Therefore, this technique is much more likely to detect something even after the virus is long gone.
Additionally, because the technique amplifies the sequence, there is a chance that it will amplify any sort of junk RNA/DNA that happens to be in the sample (even non-viral RNA/DNA). In other words, it's susceptible to give false positives with contaminants, and that is the reason why the test has to be performed twice before doctors can be sure that a person is positive for the virus.
EDIT:
As /u/vapulate explains below, there are some tricks to reduce the false positive rate, such as checking different parts of the viral RNA at the same time.

Link >> https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/fr5tnn/on_diamond_princess_researchers_found_coronavirus/
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

KiwiGriff

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 684
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 393
  • Likes Given: 104
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4372 on: March 30, 2020, 09:52:09 PM »
Probably the most accurate representation of infection to test ratios  and death rates to resolved cases is the numbers from Korea
They have had a massive testing effort since very early on so have picked up many unsymptomatic and mild cases and have a high ratio of resolved to active cases.
Deaths to known cases 1.64%
Their death rate is still rising quicker than new cases suggesting this % will continue to increase
Recovered / Discharged 5,228 (97%)  Deaths 158 (3%).
To me this suggests  an over all case to death count bounded by  1.64% to 3%.

Many are noting pollution levels may be a factor in death rates.
Another confounding factor I have not seen mentioned is over all health of a population.
Korea has a high life expectancy the USA low for the developed world.
Will this result in a higher death rate in an older population or more deaths due to a higher rate of chronic conditions in the younger population?

 

colchonero

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 119
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 20
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4373 on: March 30, 2020, 10:11:53 PM »
Is it too early to call daily peak globally (at least for this season)? I think so. There has to be at least a couple more days of a downward trend. But at least after weeks of fear, quarantines and horrible news, we are starting to see some good news, or more like a light at the end of the tunnel.

sigma_squared

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 109
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 52
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4374 on: March 30, 2020, 10:16:15 PM »
So Italy did 500 000 tests and 100 000 are positive. And New York did 170 000 tests and 66000 are positive. And Italy has a population of 60 million, and the state New York 20 million. That probably means that many people in New York got infected in a very short timeframe. Otherwise they would have noticed it faster in the hospitals.

This article shows the growth rate in New York and other American cities using several measures, comparing them with Lombardy and Wuhan:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/27/upshot/coronavirus-new-york-comparison.html

Some U.S. Cities Could Have Coronavirus Outbreaks Worse Than Wuhan’s

Cases in Detroit have also grown rapidly recently:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/30/us/coronavirus-detroit.html

Coronavirus Sweeps Through Detroit, a City That Has Seen Crisis Before

New Orleans seems like it had its fastest growth a couple of weeks ago, probably due to Mardi Gras:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/us/coronavirus-louisiana-new-orleans.html

Quote
New Orleans Faces a Virus Nightmare, and Mardi Gras May Be Why
Louisiana may be experiencing the world's fastest growth in new cases. Medical experts said Mardi Gras might have accelerated the crisis.

Sam

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 417
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 373
  • Likes Given: 70
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4375 on: March 30, 2020, 10:23:08 PM »
Is it too early to call daily peak globally (at least for this season)? I think so. There has to be at least a couple more days of a downward trend. But at least after weeks of fear, quarantines and horrible news, we are starting to see some good news, or more like a light at the end of the tunnel.

Not even close.

Sam

El Cid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1013
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 407
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4376 on: March 30, 2020, 10:53:02 PM »
Probably the most accurate representation of infection to test ratios  and death rates to resolved cases is the numbers from Korea ...

No. Iceland is where you go for data. They already tested more than 3% of the total population, far more than anywhere else.
Data here:
https://www.covid.is/data

1086 cases
30 hospitalized (ie. 3% hospitalization ratio!)
10 intensive care (= 1% needing intensive care!)
2 dead ( = 0,2%)

This tells you that there are many more mild and asymptomatic cases than previously believed and both mortality and hopsitalization ratio is much lower than envisioned by most people...

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3037
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 489
  • Likes Given: 344
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4377 on: March 30, 2020, 11:05:00 PM »
Yes, the testing in Iceland is impressive.

I haven't read about it in depth, but I'm imagining that all that testing meant that they were also tracking cases, isolating contacts early, getting people who needed it medical attention early...

All those would lower the numbers.

There is not absolute CFR for this or any other condition. It always depends on how well the systems to control spread (especially, in the early stages at least, through testing, tracing contacts, and isolating those contacts) and to quickly hospitalize people who are infected are working.

Iceland may show (so far) best practices, and the results those practices can get. Unfortunately, it is far to late for most other places in the industrialized world to imitate those practices. And most of the developing world will not be able to do anything like what they did in Iceland.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1956
  • Likes Given: 249
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4378 on: March 30, 2020, 11:05:46 PM »
Model Cited by White House Says 82,000 People Could Die From Coronavirus by August, Even With Social Distancing
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/30/health/coronavirus-us-ihme-model-us/index.html

President Donald Trump's decision to extend social distancing guidelines until April 30 came after officials reviewed 12 different statistical models, said Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, during a Sunday press briefing.

But standing in the Rose Garden, Birx also mentioned another model, created independently, that "ended up at the same numbers." That analysis, which is publicly available, paints a grim picture of what's to come in the US, even with social distancing in place.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

As of Monday morning, it estimates that more than 2,000 people could die each day in the United States in mid-April, when the virus is predicted to hit the country hardest. The model, which is updated regularly, predicts that 224,000 hospital beds -- 61,000 more than we'll have -- will be needed on April 15, when the US is estimated to reach "peak resource use."

And assuming social distancing will continue through May, it finds that, by August, around 82,000 people in the US could die from Covid-19.

Birx, pointing to the model on Sunday, said "you can see the concern that we had with the growing number of potential fatalities."

... "Even with social distancing measures enacted and sustained, the peak demand for hospital services due to the COVID-19 pandemic is likely going to exceed capacity substantially."

No state, no metro area will be spared," ... Deaths could be higher if states don't enact social distancing measures -- or if people don't follow them.

... "Our estimate of 81 thousand deaths in the US over the next 4 months is an alarming number," the researchers wrote, "but this number could be substantially higher if excess demand for health system resources is not addressed and if social distancing policies are not vigorously implemented and enforced across all states."

--------------------------------

FEMA Sends Refrigerator Trucks to NYC to Serve as Temporary Mortuaries for Coronavirus Victims
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/fema-sends-refrigerator-trucks-to-nyc-to-serve-as-temporary-mortuaries-for-deceased-coronavirus-patients.html

The Federal Emergency Management Agency is sending refrigerator trucks to New York City to serve as temporary mortuaries for deceased coronavirus patients, Thomas Von Essen, the agency’s regional administrator, said.

“We are sending refrigeration trucks to New York to help with some of the problem on a temporary basis,” ... Von Essen said the military has provided 42 people to the Manhattan Medical Examiner’s Office where there is a “desperate need” for help in Queens.

When asked whether Madison Square Garden would be converted into a temporary mortuary, Van Essen ruled out that idea.

De Blasio said the city is preparing for a “horrible increase in the number of deaths.”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

KiwiGriff

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 684
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 393
  • Likes Given: 104
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4379 on: March 30, 2020, 11:08:00 PM »
1.086 cases 157 recovered 2 dead.
Not enough resolved cases  to make any projection based on that data.
Some victims are OK for weeks only to rapidly decline and die .
Iceland is a data set that shows promises to give us valid information over time just not yet

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1956
  • Likes Given: 249
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4380 on: March 30, 2020, 11:18:12 PM »


“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

SteveMDFP

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1687
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 341
  • Likes Given: 23
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4381 on: March 30, 2020, 11:36:43 PM »
Probably the most accurate representation of infection to test ratios  and death rates to resolved cases is the numbers from Korea ...

No. Iceland is where you go for data. They already tested more than 3% of the total population, far more than anywhere else.
Data here:
https://www.covid.is/data

1086 cases
30 hospitalized (ie. 3% hospitalization ratio!)
10 intensive care (= 1% needing intensive care!)
2 dead ( = 0,2%)

This tells you that there are many more mild and asymptomatic cases than previously believed and both mortality and hopsitalization ratio is much lower than envisioned by most people...

Of course, with extensive testing to find early cases, there may be 2-3 weeks mean time from diagnosis to death.  Take current deaths divided by total cases of 2-3 weeks ago, and the case fatality rate is far higher than that.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17519
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 811
  • Likes Given: 296
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4382 on: March 30, 2020, 11:55:40 PM »
60 people came to a choir practice. Now dozens have COVID-19 and 2 are dead.
Los Angeles Times
Quote
The deadly outbreak among members of a choir has stunned health officials, who have concluded that the virus was almost certainly transmitted through the air from one or more people without symptoms. ...
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Freegrass

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1008
  • Emancipate yourself from mental slavery
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 352
  • Likes Given: 404
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4383 on: March 31, 2020, 12:33:05 AM »
Is there a way to see how many people are tested in Italy and New York ?

In the last few days, New York state has been testing about 15,000 people per day and Italy about 30,000 people per day.  Daily numbers here:

https://covidtracking.com/data/state/new-york/
https://github.com/pcm-dpc/COVID-19/tree/master/schede-riepilogative/regioni  (tamponi = swab tests)
I wonder why WorldOmeter doesn't add those numbers of testing. That would be valuable information to interpret the numbers better.
Freethinkers are those who are willing to use their minds without prejudice and without fearing to understand things that clash with their own customs, privileges, or beliefs. This state of mind is not common, but it is essential for right thinking.

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1956
  • Likes Given: 249
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4384 on: March 31, 2020, 12:35:11 AM »
^ It's not always provided.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1956
  • Likes Given: 249
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4385 on: March 31, 2020, 12:39:08 AM »
Comprehensive statistics on the State of Connecticut's situation: https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/Coronavirus/CTDPHCOVID19summary3302020.pdf?la=en

Doubling every 2-3 days; 2 days behind Louisiana.
4-day lag getting test results.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

greylib

  • New ice
  • Posts: 57
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 36
  • Likes Given: 57
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4386 on: March 31, 2020, 12:44:33 AM »
It seems to me that people using shared corridors and lifts, and pushing at internal doorways would find it much harder to avoid exposure to other people's bugs. I doubt anybody has the statistics, but it could well be that apartments, halls of residence, nursing homes have a higher rate of infection.

Could effective quarantining come down to whether you have your own door to the outside?
Step by step, moment by moment
We live through another day.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17519
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 811
  • Likes Given: 296
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4387 on: March 31, 2020, 12:59:14 AM »

Someone just called coronavirus “World War C”!

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Grubbegrabben

  • New ice
  • Posts: 78
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 13
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4388 on: March 31, 2020, 01:15:24 AM »
Probably the most accurate representation of infection to test ratios  and death rates to resolved cases is the numbers from Korea ...

No. Iceland is where you go for data. They already tested more than 3% of the total population, far more than anywhere else.
Data here:
https://www.covid.is/data

1086 cases
30 hospitalized (ie. 3% hospitalization ratio!)
10 intensive care (= 1% needing intensive care!)
2 dead ( = 0,2%)

This tells you that there are many more mild and asymptomatic cases than previously believed and both mortality and hopsitalization ratio is much lower than envisioned by most people...

Of course, with extensive testing to find early cases, there may be 2-3 weeks mean time from diagnosis to death.  Take current deaths divided by total cases of 2-3 weeks ago, and the case fatality rate is far higher than that.

Currently two registered deaths.
2 weeks ago: 183 confirmed. Fatality rate = 2/183 = 1%
3 weeks ago: 56 confirmed. Fatailty rate = 2/56 = 3.6%
So, somewhere between 1 and 3.6% then...

"This tells you that there are many more mild and asymptomatic cases..."

Maybe this belongs in the "stupid questions" thread, but how do you look at the data to estimate the asymptomatic cases?


be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1218
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 477
  • Likes Given: 351
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4389 on: March 31, 2020, 01:21:36 AM »
   ^^ .. and not a bomb dropped .

I bet the choir weren't wearing face masks .

Somewhere in the world of 'twits' I saw the national logarithmic graph highlighted ' not mask wearers ' and 'mask wearers' .. simple .
Especially important for all medical  and care sector staff from before 'D' day .

UK .. numbers of deaths outside hospital to be added to total .. so far only deaths in hospital have been reported . This may well be true in Spain too .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

vox_mundi

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3308
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1956
  • Likes Given: 249
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4390 on: March 31, 2020, 01:24:47 AM »
^ France will start including C19 deaths in nursing homes later this weeks. They are bracing the people for a huge jump.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

KiwiGriff

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 684
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 393
  • Likes Given: 104
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4391 on: March 31, 2020, 02:53:03 AM »
Grubbegrabben
El Cid is an perennial optimist on almost all questions.

Your bounds from Iceland are very similar to what I found for Korea.

Many are pinning their hopes on the significant  hidden cases hypothesis that we have very limited evidence for. Perhaps when a reliable antibody test is widely instituted we will know
Until then it is not a good idea to base responses with the potential for  the deaths of millions on such a baseless hypothesis.
 

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 17519
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 811
  • Likes Given: 296
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4392 on: March 31, 2020, 04:07:58 AM »
“Logarithm graphs coming soon”
 https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1244684187476660224
Graph below.

—-
Cartoon below.
 H/t  https://twitter.com/evafoxu/status/1244745327653138435

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3037
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 489
  • Likes Given: 344
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4393 on: March 31, 2020, 07:11:53 AM »
Here's a reason why death rates might be quite a bit higher in the US than in China and some other places:

Quote
In the United Kingdom, a recent study by the National Health Service’s Intensive Care National Audit and Research Center revealed that 127 of 196 COVID-19 patients who were in intensive care were overweight.

But the problem is that this is about 64% of the cases that are overweight, which is also about the percentage of people in the UK who are overweight...so weight does not in fact seem to be a factor (according to this study, at least...and my logic...which...is my logic flawed somewhere?)

https://bringmethenews.com/minnesota-news/u-of-ms-osterholm-says-obesity-could-be-deadly-factor-in-u-s-covid-19-outbreak

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity_in_the_United_Kingdom

"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

sigma_squared

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 109
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 52
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4394 on: March 31, 2020, 07:23:19 AM »
Maybe this belongs in the "stupid questions" thread, but how do you look at the data to estimate the asymptomatic cases?

As others have said, I don't think there's any way to estimate the asymptomatic cases from the high level data.

Here are some more slides and commentary from the Harvard presentation. In each slide, 'asymptomatic' seems to have a slightly different meaning, based on the evidence for it and the conditions of the study. Each paper seems quite specific and idiosyncratic, so even generalizing greatly from these documented situations seems difficult.

Meyerowitz and Richterman

Slides: https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1shQ8m7kX2qFyj6PByY_DxM37fcyxLjSBojmTpFJN4kU/edit#slide=id.p

Presentation: https://www.dropbox.com/s/bj0bbvggh1jrnh0/Meyerowitz%20%26%20Richterman.mp4?dl=0

Quote
[13:28] Slide 15

So a preprint posted earlier this week describes the early epidemic in Italy, during which they screened asymptomatic contacts of known COVID-19 patients. They found that viral loads from these asymptomatic individuals were similar to those from symptomatic patients, although the caveat is that we don't know whether these individuals were asymptomatic or presymptomatic, as we've seen in a number of other studies that presymptomatic people can have high viral loads, particularly in the couple days preceding symptom onset.

[13:59] Slide 16

With that in mind, this is a somewhat provocative study that looked at just over a thousand patients in China with suspected COVID-19, who had both a PCR and CT chest performed. A small subest of these patients, 15 people, noted again by these horizontal lines, had a negative PCR followed by a positive one, with an average of five days between the tests. 93% of these patients had abnormalities on chest CT at the earlier time point, suggesting the possibility that in suspected cases who are PCR negative, CT findings may be helpful in further stratifying clinical suspicion.

[14:35] Slide 17

And while identification of viral RNA is variable, as I described, there's relatively little information to date about how well this correlates with shedding of actual viable and hence infectious virus. This is again a preprint, posted of 9 mild cases in Germany. In these mild cases, they found live virus in the sputum only up to day 8, and while isolation of live virus correlates with PCR positivity, as seen in the right, PCR remained postitive at times for weeks longer. Live virus shedding in severe cases has not yet been described.

[15:10] Slide 18

This study published last week in Emerging Infectious Diseases evaluated 468 confirmed transmission events of SARS-CoV-2 in mainland China to estimate the serial interval, which is the time between symptom onset in the transmitter and symptom onset in the transmitee. They found a mean serial interval of about 4 days, and importantly, their analysis estimates that 12.6% of transmissions are presymptomatic, an important finding when it comes to infection control in the population level within our healthcare facilities.

« Last Edit: March 31, 2020, 01:14:36 PM by sigma_squared »

sigma_squared

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 109
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 52
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4395 on: March 31, 2020, 07:29:42 AM »
Quote
[15:45] Slide 19

So, putting together a lot of what Aaron has been going through over the last few slides, I think we're starting to see part of the reason that this has been so hard to contain, because so much transmission is happening before people develop symptoms. So, this was an important modelling study published last week that looked at the early epidemic in China and it estimated that 86% of the early infections may have been missed, and felt that these were either mild or completely asymptomatic. For the purposes of their modeling, they estimated that these cases were half as infectious as the symptomatic infections, although there's a lot of assumptions there that have not yet been proven.

[16:45] Slide 20

So this was a very interesting study that was published last week in JID. This was a cohort of 55 individuals in China. From the title it says that they're asymptomatic but they're actually presymptomatic. So these were individuals who were identified when they did contact tracing of known COVID patients, they found these 55 people who were RT-PCR positive, and they actually admitted them all to the hospital. Then they followed them closely, and all of them developed symptoms between one and seven days later. So, the implication here is that people are shedding virus and potentially infectious for up to a week before they develop symptoms. They found that younger people were more likely to have mild infections, which has also been seen in other studies to date. And they also, going back to the study that Aaron mentioned a few slides ago, about the changes in the CT scans possibly preceding symptom onset, all of these people, though they were asymptomatic at the time of admission, remember, they then developed symptoms one to seven days later, all of them had a CT scan at the time of enrollment, and remarkably, only 29% were completely normal. So again, those changes in the CT seemed to start very early in the course of infection, even before symptoms develop.

[18:15] Slide 21

So, this is an illustrative cluster of six infections during the early epidemic in China outside Wuhan, published in JAMA, and there's also a reference below to a very similar cluster just published in CID as well. So you can see patient one, on the top line, travelled home from Wuhan on January 10th, had varying levels of close contact with patients two through six, as you can see here in blue, over the course of the next few days. In the ensuing days to week, all of these other patients became symptomatic, as noted here in orange, and were ultimately diagnosed with COVID-19 at the pink point along the line. Patient one, however, remained asymptomatic throughout the study period, and was ultimately tested and found to be SARS-CoV-2 positive 19 days later, suggesting that there can be truly asymptomatic transmission, if this case is to be believed.

[19:15] Slide 22

At this point it's impossible to determine exactly what proportion of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 are truly asymptomatic. There was the small series on the left, of initially asymptomatic household contacts who are PCR positive in Nanjing, China. It found that those who never developed symptoms, which was only about seven people, I believe, tended to be younger, with a median age of 14 years, suggesting the possibility of a viral reservoir among asymptomatic children, although of course it should be interpreted with caution.

And on the cruise ship the Diamond Princess, there was an estimated 17.9% of the people there who were asymptomatically infected, although again, these individuals were not clearly followed long enough to see whether they should be more appropriately described as presymptomatic. Sero-surveys will serve a crucial role in helping to answer this question.

[20:07]

This presentation was given on March 22nd, when there were 1,642 papers in PubMed on the topic at LitCovid: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/research/coronavirus/.

Since then 476 papers have been added for a total of 2,118.

sigma_squared

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 109
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 52
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4396 on: March 31, 2020, 07:40:44 AM »
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6485/1414.2

With COVID-19, modeling takes on life and death importance

Martin Enserink, Kai Kupferschmidt
Science  27 Mar 2020
Quote
Jacco Wallinga's computer simulations are about to face a high-stakes reality check. Wallinga is a mathematician and the chief epidemic modeler at the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), which is advising the Dutch government on what actions, such as closing schools and businesses, will help control the spread of the novel coronavirus in the country.

The Netherlands has so far chosen a softer set of measures than most Western European countries; it was late to close its schools and restaurants and hasn't ordered a full lockdown. In a 17 March speech, Prime Minister Mark Rutte rejected “working endlessly to contain the virus” and “shutting down the country completely.” Instead, he opted for “controlled spread” of the virus while making sure the health system isn't swamped with COVID-19 patients. He called on the public to respect RIVM's expertise on how to thread that needle. Wallinga's models predict that the number of infected people needing hospitalization, his most important metric, will taper off next week. But if the models are wrong, the demand for intensive care beds could outstrip supply, as it has, tragically, in Italy and Spain.

COVID-19 isn't the first infectious disease scientists have modeled—Ebola and Zika are recent examples—but never has so much depended on their work. Entire cities and countries have been locked down based on hastily done forecasts that often haven't been peer reviewed. “It's a huge responsibility,” says epidemiologist Caitlin Rivers of the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, who co-authored a report about the future of outbreak modeling in the United States that her center released this week.
...
Policymakers have relied too heavily on COVID-19 models, says Devi Sridhar, a global health expert at the University of Edinburgh. “I'm not really sure whether the theoretical models will play out in real life.” And it's dangerous for politicians to trust models that claim to show how a littlestudied virus can be kept in check, says Harvard University epidemiologist William Hanage. “It's like, you've decided you've got to ride a tiger,” he says, “except you don't know where the tiger is, how big it is, or how many tigers there actually are.”

« Last Edit: March 31, 2020, 07:49:32 AM by sigma_squared »

El Cid

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1013
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 407
  • Likes Given: 75
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4397 on: March 31, 2020, 08:18:39 AM »
Back to Iceland. It is actually pretty interesting.

They have sort of two testings:
 
1. The Health Ministry tests people who show any symptoms, and their contacts as well. They have tested 7749 people, 1015 of whom were confirmed
2. They have voluntary testing by a well known genomics firm: anyone can be tested who wishes. They ask people to volunteer to find asymptomatic cases. They have tested 8694 people so far and found 71 cases (0,8% of tested).

Now, if you think that the above 8694 represents the icelandic population of 364000, then you could possibly have as many as 3000 more asymptomatic cases in the population. This is of course the higher bound as it is possible that some of those who volunteer do not have fever but feel a bit unwell, and that is why they have themselves tested. Anyway, we know they have 71 to 3000 asymptomatic or very very mild cases besides the 1000 symptomatic.
 
So, they actually have 1000-4000 cases, of which 2 died and 10 is in intensive care. Some suggested to take case numbers from 2-3 weeks ago and use those for mortality calculations but as it usually takes 1 week to die from this I find that not right.

Some in intensive care will die, surely, but definitely not all. Even if all died who are in intensive care, that would be 12 people out of aminimum of 1000 maximum of 4000 cases, putting mortality between 0,3 and 1,2 %.

My guess is that they actually have cca 2-3 thousand cases of whom 6-8 will die (half of those in intensive care), so actual mortality is below 0,5%.

Take a look at the data:
https://www.covid.is/data
blue is health authorities testing, orange is "random"

« Last Edit: March 31, 2020, 08:24:34 AM by El Cid »

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 5430
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1598
  • Likes Given: 1552
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4398 on: March 31, 2020, 08:35:32 AM »
El Cid, Indeed an interesting situation in Iceland. I think first and foremost it proves that there aren't loads and loads of asymptomatic mild cases. In your estimate it's up to 3 times the confirmed cases, though I also suspect that many of those who tested voluntarily felt something that triggered them to do so.

As to the fatality rate, I think you are optimistic. It takes 2-3 weeks to die, not 1, according to the statistics I have seen on this forum. That new Orleans ER doctor wrote 5 days to symptom onset, and then 10 days til ARDS, which is not yet death. Elsewhere I recall 17 days til death. So the Iceland story is not over yet, but it certainly deserves to be followed closely.

Sigma_squared, thank you for these detailed studies and presentations.

bluice

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 353
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 149
  • Likes Given: 308
Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4399 on: March 31, 2020, 09:13:11 AM »
Iceland is extremely interesting and useful case. As always we need to look into details to get a proper picture.

One would expect the voluntary tested population sample to have a bias towards people who have some kind of symptoms and to people who feel having a possible exposure to Covid-19.

We must also remember the regional distribution when looking into national data of a country. 822 out of total 1086 cases or 75% are from Greater Reykjavik region although "only" about 62% of the population live there. I couldn't find regional distribution of testing but it is safe to assume that both testing and infections are concentrated on the capital area. Thus we cannot extrapolate current figures to the total population as there is likely to be a pool of rural population with neither the exposure to Covid nor tests made to confirm it.

5 days from infection to symptoms, + 10 days to ARDS + 2-5 days to death means 17-20 days from infection to death and 12-15 days from symptoms to death. Thanks to extensive testing Iceland probably discovers more cases earlier than most countries, so let's assume in Iceland it takes on average 15-17 days from confirmation to death.

As it happens confirmed cases started to rise rapidly 14 days ago from 17th March. I think it it's too soon to predict Icelandic fatality rate before these cases mature to deaths or stable cases awaiting to be discharged.  This should be visible in figures at the end of the week. Because Iceland only has 30 hospitalized patients and 10 in ICU it is unlikely there will be a huge surge in deaths though.