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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 67

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 233630 times)

KiwiGriff

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4400 on: March 31, 2020, 09:24:34 AM »
Quote
but as it usually takes 1 week to die from this I find that not right.

17.8 days from symptom  to death according to a paper published today in the lancet.
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-03/tl-pss_1033020.php

They also give the following death rates.
 
Quote
The death rate from confirmed COVID-19 cases is estimated at 1.38%, while the overall death rate, which includes unconfirmed cases, is estimated at 0.66%.

They use the assumption that cases are evenly spread throughout the population and the overwhelming number of cases reported are in the over fifty age group to calculate  their unconfirmed case count.

I still find the S Korean data and an examination of their death rate more convincing.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4401 on: March 31, 2020, 10:01:56 AM »
Ok, 2 weeks it is then to die. I accept that.

Also, mortality data are obviously not final.

Still, as I said IF all intensive care patients die AND the "random" sampling is not random at all, meaning that no one else is asymptomatic in iceland than those already tested, that would put mortality at 1,2%. That is the absolute higher bound, reality is lower or much lower than that depending on how many more asymptomatic are there and how many intensive care patients die.

The Icenlandic data are worth following as they have the most widespread testing relative to population.

Also, there will soon be random sampling in Austria and Belgium (2000-2000 people if memory serves correct). That will shed more light on asymptomatic ratios!

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4402 on: March 31, 2020, 10:07:32 AM »
Daily figures of Finland, getting almost to a linear increase in new observed cases. ~12th day of social distancing rules. Hopefully going less than linear after this week.

We might guess there are two insurges of tourists from Italy/Austria, and a component of follow up infections. These would require a more detailed analysis on province level, preferably on county level.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2020, 10:54:43 AM by Pmt111500 »
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El Cid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #4403 on: March 31, 2020, 10:09:24 AM »
One more thing, I am billed as a perennial optimist by Kiwi. I think of myself as a realist (surrounded by a sea of pessimists maybe :).

I had the 3rd posting in this thread on Jan25, arguing that this thing is more dangerous than most think:


- Mortality seems to be 5%, I wouldn't call it low

- Containment is so successful that it is already present in Europe and USA

I hope it fizzles out...for the next couple of decades epidemics like this are more dangerous than AGW...If anything like the Spanish flu comes up, it could mean 0,5-1 billion dead

Then I lowered my estimate of mortality to cca 1% based on exHubei and Korean data and I was attacked viciously for that. Now most people are converging towards that 1 %.
Based on Icelandic data I think mortality could be below 1%, likely cca. 0,5% or even less. I respect the data and nothing else.

bluice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4404 on: March 31, 2020, 10:22:10 AM »
El Cid, I also think data indicates mortality to converge around 1% of confirmed cases when health care is adequate and not overburdened. Then there is an unknown number of undiscovered cases.

Aporia_filia

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4405 on: March 31, 2020, 11:44:35 AM »
Can any of the experts comment on this Nature article?
In 2015 in the USA a virus just like the covid19 was produced in lab. In theory they tried to hide it and stopped that line of research.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985


Not to blame anybody (gods sake!), but to know if those experiments could offer some help today.
Thanks pmt.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2020, 12:34:34 PM by Aporia_filia »

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4406 on: March 31, 2020, 11:56:23 AM »
Iceland is extremely interesting and useful case. As always we need to look into details to get a proper picture.

One would expect the voluntary tested population sample to have a bias towards people who have some kind of symptoms and to people who feel having a possible exposure to Covid-19.

We must also remember the regional distribution when looking into national data of a country. 822 out of total 1086 cases or 75% are from Greater Reykjavik region although "only" about 62% of the population live there. I couldn't find regional distribution of testing but it is safe to assume that both testing and infections are concentrated on the capital area. Thus we cannot extrapolate current figures to the total population as there is likely to be a pool of rural population with neither the exposure to Covid nor tests made to confirm it.

5 days from infection to symptoms, + 10 days to ARDS + 2-5 days to death means 17-20 days from infection to death and 12-15 days from symptoms to death. Thanks to extensive testing Iceland probably discovers more cases earlier than most countries, so let's assume in Iceland it takes on average 15-17 days from confirmation to death.

As it happens confirmed cases started to rise rapidly 14 days ago from 17th March. I think it it's too soon to predict Icelandic fatality rate before these cases mature to deaths or stable cases awaiting to be discharged.  This should be visible in figures at the end of the week. Because Iceland only has 30 hospitalized patients and 10 in ICU it is unlikely there will be a huge surge in deaths though.

Iceland has a population of a small city, and is spread across the entire landsurface. Even the capital has no very high buildings. So you don't even have to take the elevator if you don't want. And it's an island. So everything comes over the sea or air. That should be the easiest place to contain it.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4407 on: March 31, 2020, 12:06:55 PM »
Can any of the experts comment on this Nature article?
In 2015 in the USA a virus just like the covid19 was produced in lab. In theory they tried to hide it and stopped that line of research.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985

And what does that mean ? There is also a lab at a few hundred meters from that foodmarket in Wuhan that works with that Virus. So it means nothing. What i do know is that many people are getting into troubles in Africa and South America because China is spreading that it started in Europe.

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4408 on: March 31, 2020, 12:18:56 PM »
Can any of the experts comment on this Nature article?
In 2015 in the USA a virus just like the covid19 was produced in lab. In theory they tried to hide it and stopped that line of research.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985

Off topic:

No expert, but US is one of very few countries, if not the only one, doing such 'research'. No doubt they've not included the true modification they used in the article. And then in comes El Prezidente saying he has CoV-FeFe. The infection starts on countries that aren't well regarded by El Prez. The only country, doing well combating this early, is. This is of course conspiracy theory territory.

Should though understand what is said in the article, if I would be interested in bioweaponry and such. Silly to think a particle under a micron in size would stay contained in a room temperature anywhere for long. The inevitable fails in filters in a level 4-5 biohazard lab almost guarantees an escape. Of course they wash and heat them up before changing them but still, some particles might stay intact enough. Mad scientists.

Off topic ends.
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SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4409 on: March 31, 2020, 12:31:08 PM »
Ok, 2 weeks it is then to die. I accept that.
...

No, almost certainly closer to 3 weeks.  The 17 days mean time from diagnosis to death derives from settings without such quick and easy access.  In such testing-constrained settings, the testing taking place is shifted to those with more severe symptoms, thus later in the disease.

Conversely, settings such as Iceland with quick and easy testing and much testing of people before *any* symptoms develop means the diagnoses are being made earlier in the course of infection.  It's hard to justify an estimate of less than 3 weeks mean time from diagnosis to death for the Iceland data.  I'd argue that an overall Infection Fatality Rate of less than ~1% is not defensible.  Likely somewhat higher, particularly  since the Iceland death rate is in a setting of unconstrained hospital care, ICU availability, and no shortage of ventilators.

At peak of the epidemic, few places will have nearly enough hospital beds, ventilators, or attention from medical personnel.  In overwhelmed cities or poor countries, most who need hospitalization won't have this available.  People get hospitalized because they need at least oxygen and/or IV fluids to survive.  Without availability of these hospital-level treatments, the mortality rate could approach perhaps 25% of the rate of hospitalization of cases.

We have a virus that's approximately as lethal as the 1918 pandemic and approximately as contagious.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2020, 12:44:53 PM by SteveMDFP »

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4410 on: March 31, 2020, 12:48:05 PM »
Germany to centralize supply chains, set prices on masks, protective gear

Quote
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to global shortages of key protective supplies — and fraudsters looking to profit off the desperate need to procure them. Now Berlin is looking at ways to fill the gaps and combat extortion.

Link >> https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-germany-to-centralize-supply-chains-set-prices-on-masks-protective-gear/a-52952314
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4411 on: March 31, 2020, 01:03:10 PM »
THERE IS NO ICEBERG UNDER THE TIP.

If you are looking for the eventual statistic that this disease will converge at, the CFR is 3%-4% or higher, depending mostly on when the west decides to start wearing masks.

If you are looking for the expected CFR under ideal medical conditions then the CFR is somewhere on the 0.5% and 1.5% depending mostly on demographics. Ideal conditions mean early testing with early monitoring and early professional treatment of symptoms, an isolated room with oxygen, ventilators, and medical personal that is not tired or sick.

The CFR without any medical care is around 10% because the hospitalization rate is anywhere between 10% and 20%.
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Aluminium

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4412 on: March 31, 2020, 01:11:23 PM »
While Moscow is burning, there is some good news in Russia.

Two subjects of Russia have stopped it, maybe.
Zabaykalsky Krai has 1 confirmed, 1 recovered.
Kurgan Oblast has 1 confirmed, 1 recovered.

A few had not confirmed cases. Another few have ratio active/confirmed 50% or below.

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4413 on: March 31, 2020, 01:34:10 PM »
Some own (very inaccurate) estimates of CoviD-19
What it resembles:
10% almost asymptomatic
20% bad common cold
10% bad common cold - influenza
40% bad influenza
20% pneumonia or worse.

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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4414 on: March 31, 2020, 01:36:51 PM »
We are not only trapped inside with the virus, but the virus is also trapped inside with us.

“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4415 on: March 31, 2020, 01:44:05 PM »

The CFR without any medical care is around 10% because the hospitalization rate is anywhere between 10% and 20%.

I find these numbers highly doubtful in light of the most tested population , Iceland.

16000 tested more than 4% of total population).
1086 cases,
30 in hospital,
10 intensive care, (i don't know if the 10 includes the 30)
2 dead (and counting). How is this a 10-20% hospitalization rate??? How could they possibly have more than 42 dead (30+10+2)?

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4416 on: March 31, 2020, 01:44:55 PM »
Have you seen Chernobyl? If you haven't you should.

1% CFR. Not Great, Not Terrible

Offline: COVID-19 and the NHS—“a national scandal"

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30727-3/fulltext
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4417 on: March 31, 2020, 01:56:06 PM »
Quote
I find these numbers highly doubtful in light of the most tested population, Iceland.


Yes because your blinders make you ignore the fact that the most tested population is also the population that receives the best health care. 
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SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4418 on: March 31, 2020, 02:01:41 PM »

The CFR without any medical care is around 10% because the hospitalization rate is anywhere between 10% and 20%.

I find these numbers highly doubtful in light of the most tested population , Iceland.

16000 tested more than 4% of total population).
1086 cases,
30 in hospital,
10 intensive care, (i don't know if the 10 includes the 30)
2 dead (and counting). How is this a 10-20% hospitalization rate??? How could they possibly have more than 42 dead (30+10+2)?

Same lesson as before.  instead of 2-3 weeks from diagnosis to death, this issue is 1-2 weeks from diagnosis to hospitalization.  Take current hospitalizations and divide by case count of ~10 days ago.

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4419 on: March 31, 2020, 02:04:44 PM »
bluice wrote:  "5 days from infection to symptoms..."

That's the 'typical' number, but it can be as long as two weeks: "The incubation period for COVID-19 is typically five to six days but may range from two to 14 days.[44][45] 97.5% of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of infection"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Pathophysiology


As to "+ 10 days to ARDS + 2-5 days to death " this is definitely only the minimum.

Quote
The WHO reports that “the median time from onset to clinical recovery for mild cases is approximately 2 weeks.”

Again this is based on the 55,924 confirmed cases in China
For severe and critical cases it is 3 to 6 weeks according to the same study.
And for those who eventually died, the time from symptom onset to death ranged from 2 to 8 weeks

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#how-long-does-covid-19-last

Let's try not to spread less than fully accurate information on this important disease.

« Last Edit: March 31, 2020, 02:54:29 PM by wili »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4420 on: March 31, 2020, 02:09:47 PM »
Can any of the experts comment on this Nature article?
In 2015 in the USA a virus just like the covid19 was produced in lab. In theory they tried to hide it and stopped that line of research.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985

And what does that mean ? There is also a lab at a few hundred meters from that foodmarket in Wuhan that works with that Virus. So it means nothing. What i do know is that many people are getting into troubles in Africa and South America because China is spreading that it started in Europe.

I thought China was saying the American army released it in Wuhan?
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4421 on: March 31, 2020, 02:16:32 PM »
Can any of the experts comment on this Nature article?
In 2015 in the USA a virus just like the covid19 was produced in lab. In theory they tried to hide it and stopped that line of research.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985


Not to blame anybody (gods sake!), but to know if those experiments could offer some help today.
Thanks pmt.

Quote
30 March 2020Editors’ note, March 2020: We are aware that this article is being used as the basis for unverified theories that the novel coronavirus causing COVID-19 was engineered. There is no evidence that this is true; scientists believe that an animal is the most likely source of the coronavirus.

Thats the best you'll find. Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence and with the probable patient 0 being an animal that was eaten months ago and is no longer available for testing, thats about as definitive as its ever likely to be.

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4422 on: March 31, 2020, 02:28:17 PM »
Can any of the experts comment on this Nature article?
In 2015 in the USA a virus just like the covid19 was produced in lab. In theory they tried to hide it and stopped that line of research.

https://www.nature.com/articles/nm.3985

And what does that mean ? There is also a lab at a few hundred meters from that foodmarket in Wuhan that works with that Virus. So it means nothing. What i do know is that many people are getting into troubles in Africa and South America because China is spreading that it started in Europe.

I thought China was saying the American army released it in Wuhan?

If the US released it they would have a cure first, right?
Although, Trump is in charge so maybe it is the US  :o

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4423 on: March 31, 2020, 02:34:05 PM »
Triage started in NY a few days ago naturally. But the more obvious triage cases are about to begin.

NYU Langone Tells ER Doctors to ‘Think More Critically’ About Who Gets Ventilators

https://www.wsj.com/articles/nyu-langone-tells-er-doctors-to-think-more-critically-about-who-gets-ventilators-11585618990
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oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4424 on: March 31, 2020, 02:44:43 PM »

The CFR without any medical care is around 10% because the hospitalization rate is anywhere between 10% and 20%.

I find these numbers highly doubtful in light of the most tested population , Iceland.

16000 tested more than 4% of total population).
1086 cases,
30 in hospital,
10 intensive care, (i don't know if the 10 includes the 30)
2 dead (and counting). How is this a 10-20% hospitalization rate??? How could they possibly have more than 42 dead (30+10+2)?

Same lesson as before.  instead of 2-3 weeks from diagnosis to death, this issue is 1-2 weeks from diagnosis to hospitalization.  Take current hospitalizations and divide by case count of ~10 days ago.
El Cid - if the total hospitalized/ICU/died remains 42 in two weeks time, Iceland is very notable and we all have to change our estimates unless some factor is found to explain the discrepancy. But if hospitalizations and ICUs and deaths start rising in the next two weeks, I think you will have your answer.
What Sam is talking about all the time, this is a fast moving virus but with a very slow disease. There are big time lags in the information available to decision makers. That's how it creates such a tsunami that overwhelms local health systems.
I do hope Iceland is different though.

pileus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4425 on: March 31, 2020, 02:55:06 PM »
Quite an effort to keep track of sam’s various projections for the US death toll.  25 million, 5 million, 12 million.

We have Dr. Fauci now using a range of 100-200k.  You would expect him to not be the type to exaggerate, so perhaps this is on the low and uncertain side.

Despite some of the generalizations here that the US population is flouting guidance and society is operating BAU, a large number of Americans have been under some degree of physical distancing and/or stay at home orders.  There is some evidence in a few larger metros of case growth slowing.  Too early to draw conclusions, and yes that spreads out the effect over time until there is a vaccine.

I’m in an urban area of Florida, and expect a very bad April and May due to demographics and slow adoption of measures across the state.  Even so, in the absence of data or facts I wouldn’t expect the catastrophic tolls statewide or nationally that some here are pushing.

The future is constantly in motion. As events change, as new data comes in projections (these are neither forecasts nor predictions) do change.

People get hung up on numbers. In catastrophes, projections form a key tool in assessing where things are headed so that experts, decision makers, and all of the emergency managers, planners, responders can prepare and work to CHANGE conditions to reduce the future projected impacts.

Do NOT ever make the mistake of thinking that any of these projections are cast in stone. The only projections that are close to that are the near term projections that account for the lag time between infection and confirmation. Even these have large uncertainties. And don’t think of those as uncertainty bounds. This isn’t statistics, and we have nothing like a representative or full sample assessment. The larger the base of information, the closer the projections are likely to be.

Also, do NOT allow your emotions, wants or desires to enter into this. Doing so if you have any influence at all gets people injured and killed.

Sam

I sincerely appreciate your thoughtful contributions to this thread.  For whatever reason, you appear to be seeking the extreme and worst case scenarios in your projections and prognostications.  All of the legitimate modeling produces results nowhere near your projections for the US, and we are seeing trends in some large metro areas suggesting a slowing rate of new cases.

Even so whether the toll is 82k or 200k or 500k that is still a tremendously horrific outcome for the US given the state of technology and biomedicine.  I would also think there is an undercounting of actual deaths and deaths indirectly related to COVID or “hidden,” such as fatal cardiovascular events that are actually due to the virus.  Even so, the US is highly unlikely to see these seven figure death tolls being casually offered here.

Of course predictability and confidence is upside down right now, so you may end up being validated, but I am highly skeptical.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4426 on: March 31, 2020, 03:10:01 PM »
Doctor's Note: Does Coronavirus Cause Loss of Smell and Taste?
https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/doctor-note-coronavirus-loss-smell-taste-200331065620798.html

Countries such as China, Iran, Italy, Germany and France have all reported cases of COVID-19 where patients reported a temporary loss in their sense of smell and/or taste.

According to the British Association of Otorhinolaryngology (ENT UK), both of these symptoms have been found among "a number of patients" in the "absence of other symptoms".

In a statement, Professor Claire Hopkins, president of the British Rhinological Society, and Professor Nirmal Kumar, president of ENT UK, said: "We think these patients may be some of the hitherto hidden carriers that have facilitated the rapid spread of COVID-19. Unfortunately, these patients do not meet current criteria for testing or self-isolation [in the UK]."

... So why does COVID-19 affect a person's sense of smell?

Many viruses that infect the upper airways (the mouth, nose, throat and sinuses), including the common cold, can reduce your sense of smell due to excess mucus secretions.

The COVID-19 virus, however, is different in that it does not cause excess mucus production in most patients. The virus is, however, found in large quantities in the backs of nasal passageways in infected people.

Here, the virus attacks the cells that are responsible for your sense of smell. It enters the cells and destroys them from within as it uses them as a platform on which to reproduce itself. 

These cells also have very tiny hairs on their surface that help detect odours. From our studies of other types of coronavirus, we know that those cells which have been infected with coronavirus appear to have lost these special hairs.

Coronavirus is also thought to infect and damage the olfactory nerve - the nerve responsible for carrying messages related to smell back to your brain for interpretation. This combination of effects can lead to a profound loss of smell.

As with most viral anosmias, the effects are temporary and most people regain their sense of smell within four weeks.

Although specific numbers of people with COVID-19 who have lost their sense of smell are not known, our knowledge of other types of coronavirus tells us that 1 percent of those who suffer from any kind of viral anosmia are left with a permanent loss of smell.

While the virus does not affect the taste buds on the tongue, because the sense of smell is so psychologically linked to taste, people will feel as if they have also lost their ability to taste.

If you are have been affected by a loss of smell or taste, and are otherwise well, you should self-isolate for seven days and your household contacts should self-isolate for 14 days.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4427 on: March 31, 2020, 03:16:25 PM »
My guardian planned to come here today but a person in his county was arrested for driving without grave cause, so I am on my own.
I am glad I have loads of rice...I think food shortages might be next.
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TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4428 on: March 31, 2020, 03:28:54 PM »
I've a dear friend that can't bear isolation, and she's afraid of being seen wearing a mask as she's of Chinese ethnicity and she's living in Florida.


She has no car, no money problems, is a very recent immigrant, and is the last person in the world that I'd expected to have such a problem with isolation or the fear of an attack.


I just recently found out about the paranoia side of things, but I've tried every approach I can think of to keep her indoors, or at least masked up.


Any suggestions or 1st hand experiences would be very much appreciated.
Terry

bluice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4429 on: March 31, 2020, 03:39:25 PM »
bluice wrote:  "5 days from infection to symptoms..."

That's the 'typical' number, but it can be as long as two weeks: "The incubation period for COVID-19 is typically five to six days but may range from two to 14 days.[44][45] 97.5% of people who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of infection"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Pathophysiology


As to "+ 10 days to ARDS + 2-5 days to death " this is definitely only the minimum.

Quote
The WHO reports that “the median time from onset to clinical recovery for mild cases is approximately 2 weeks.”

Again this is based on the 55,924 confirmed cases in China
For severe and critical cases it is 3 to 6 weeks according to the same study.
And for those who eventually died, the time from symptom onset to death ranged from 2 to 8 weeks

https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#how-long-does-covid-19-last

Let's try not to spread less than fully accurate information on this important disease.

I agree. 17-22 days is the average time from infection to death but there are outliers.

Let's look into Chinese data as they are the first ones going through the epidemic.

Daily deaths in China were on plateau between Feb 12th (146 deaths) and Feb 23rd (150, peak figure). Last time there was more than 10 daily deaths in China was Mar 17th (11).

Daily new cases (using original reporting method) in China peaked already on Feb 4th. Although there is a long tail of late deaths the majority of unrecoverable patients die earlier. 6 weeks after new cases peaked deaths were at 7% from their peak.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/china/

TerryM

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4430 on: March 31, 2020, 03:39:34 PM »
My guardian planned to come here today but a person in his county was arrested for driving without grave cause, so I am on my own.
I am glad I have loads of rice...I think food shortages might be next.


Tom
Discouraging others from getting out and about is probably as important as staying inside yourself. I'm glad that at least one county in the States is apparently taking this seriously. :)


I don't know why you have a guardian, but I'm sure the last thing you want to be responsible for is your guardian or his family becoming infected.


Stay Isolated - Stay Healthy
Terry

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4431 on: March 31, 2020, 03:47:22 PM »
My guardian planned to come here today but a person in his county was arrested for driving without grave cause, so I am on my own.
I am glad I have loads of rice...I think food shortages might be next.

Wow can you be arrested in the US for violating the confinement? I was sure there had to be an Amendment to allow you do as you please (as far as you're white obviously)

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4432 on: March 31, 2020, 03:55:40 PM »
off-topic
Terry, I sit outside in nature and people come walking past at a 2-4m distance and the wind provides a draft. We don't wear masks here but I imagine that it would not be frowned upon except for some people assuming that the wearer is infected.
Your friend could go out and sit in nature like me. Perhaps cycle a bit to go to a nice place. Wearing a mask if she wants to.
If she lives in the center of a large city she must be used to public transport, having no car.

Is there something special about people from Florida? In making her afraid to wear a mask outside?
\off-topic
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
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The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4433 on: March 31, 2020, 04:08:33 PM »
Quite an effort to keep track of sam’s various projections for the US death toll.  25 million, 5 million, 12 million.

We have Dr. Fauci now using a range of 100-200k.  You would expect him to not be the type to exaggerate, so perhaps this is on the low and uncertain side.

Despite some of the generalizations here that the US population is flouting guidance and society is operating BAU, a large number of Americans have been under some degree of physical distancing and/or stay at home orders.  There is some evidence in a few larger metros of case growth slowing.  Too early to draw conclusions, and yes that spreads out the effect over time until there is a vaccine.

I’m in an urban area of Florida, and expect a very bad April and May due to demographics and slow adoption of measures across the state.  Even so, in the absence of data or facts I wouldn’t expect the catastrophic tolls statewide or nationally that some here are pushing.

The future is constantly in motion. As events change, as new data comes in projections (these are neither forecasts nor predictions) do change.

People get hung up on numbers. In catastrophes, projections form a key tool in assessing where things are headed so that experts, decision makers, and all of the emergency managers, planners, responders can prepare and work to CHANGE conditions to reduce the future projected impacts.

Do NOT ever make the mistake of thinking that any of these projections are cast in stone. The only projections that are close to that are the near term projections that account for the lag time between infection and confirmation. Even these have large uncertainties. And don’t think of those as uncertainty bounds. This isn’t statistics, and we have nothing like a representative or full sample assessment. The larger the base of information, the closer the projections are likely to be.

Also, do NOT allow your emotions, wants or desires to enter into this. Doing so if you have any influence at all gets people injured and killed.

Sam

I sincerely appreciate your thoughtful contributions to this thread.  For whatever reason, you appear to be seeking the extreme and worst case scenarios in your projections and prognostications.  All of the legitimate modeling produces results nowhere near your projections for the US, and we are seeing trends in some large metro areas suggesting a slowing rate of new cases.

Even so whether the toll is 82k or 200k or 500k that is still a tremendously horrific outcome for the US given the state of technology and biomedicine.  I would also think there is an undercounting of actual deaths and deaths indirectly related to COVID or “hidden,” such as fatal cardiovascular events that are actually due to the virus.  Even so, the US is highly unlikely to see these seven figure death tolls being casually offered here.

Of course predictability and confidence is upside down right now, so you may end up being validated, but I am highly skeptical.

The actual cause of death can be rather nebulous at times.  If a patient is near death, and the virus pushes them over the edge, did the virus really cause the death or just hasten it?  Most would consider the latter.  However a patient with underlying conditions that catches the virus and dies, would be considered a casualty of the disease.  Others are not so clear.  All told, I do not see a large contribution from these so-called "hidden" deaths.  The death rate in the U.S. has slowed, as has occurred throughout many parts of the world.  The rate could still accelerate (or not decelerate significantly) and reach 200 or 500k by years end.  However, I am skeptical as you are about hitting those figures.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4434 on: March 31, 2020, 04:10:30 PM »

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4435 on: March 31, 2020, 04:17:12 PM »
DO NOT USE PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION!  I can't think of a more ideal way for this virus to transfer.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4436 on: March 31, 2020, 04:23:17 PM »
DO NOT USE PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION!  I can't think of a more ideal way for this virus to transfer.
+1
As paradoxical as we write this in this Forum concerned with AGW
If there's no other way, avoid peak hours.
(personal recommendation: All wear a mask).

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4437 on: March 31, 2020, 04:23:43 PM »
DO NOT USE PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION!  I can't think of a more ideal way for this virus to transfer.

Is Puerto Rico ready for it ? The numbers start to pick up a little bit.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4438 on: March 31, 2020, 04:30:10 PM »
A sick puppy :) , https://www.rt.com/usa/484508-trump-pelosi-san-francisco-coronavirus/
You're right, too bad the impeachment failed. It is surprising that he uses for Mrs Pelosi the words we use for him.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4439 on: March 31, 2020, 04:34:07 PM »
A sick puppy :) , https://www.rt.com/usa/484508-trump-pelosi-san-francisco-coronavirus/
You're right, too bad the impeachment failed. It is surprising that he uses for Mrs Pelosi the words we use for him.

I wonder who's going to get impeached in Europe. Because for 2 months they did nothing to prevend the virus from coming in. And now the price will get bigger every day.

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4440 on: March 31, 2020, 04:35:03 PM »
as hospitals are about as dangerous as war zones in normal circumstances , the lack of routine intervention by doctors in many other illnesses may be shown to extend folks lives . Not being screened for cancer , not getting chemotherapy , not being operated on .. may all be to the benefit of patients . And not being prescribed the latest opiate .
  Even my mother .. 92 in April .. has developed an interest . She likes living in unusual times .. that inspires inspiration .. and 93 becomes within reach .. :) . from the w.c. .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4441 on: March 31, 2020, 04:56:17 PM »
TerryM;
Right but he walked me through some stuff over the phone.
I had to go to the bank to get quarters for the laundry machines here (cashed a check( and they mad me use the drive in. Then they had to meet me at the door anyway because they can't send coins through the "tube"!
Also had to go to the Post Office to pay some bills (I had no stamps as my cousin-guardian took care of that before). Met a man with a mask, asked where he got it. His wife is a nurse, so that doesn't help me  >:(
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Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4442 on: March 31, 2020, 05:03:24 PM »
Coronavirus: Walmart will start taking employees' temperatures
• Walmart said it will start taking all employees’ temperatures when they report to work.
• Walmart executive Dan Bartlett said the retailer is sending infrared thermometers to all facilities but is rolling them out first at distribution centers and in coronavirus hotspots like New York and Louisiana.
• Any worker with a temperature of 100 or higher will be asked to stay home or seek medical care and won’t be able to return to work until they’re fever-free for at least three days. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-walmart-will-start-taking-all-employees-temperatures-before-shifts.html

Edit: “Walmart is considering other crowd-management approaches, such as ones they’ve learned from Black Friday.”
Added image
« Last Edit: March 31, 2020, 05:09:12 PM by Sigmetnow »
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Andreas T

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4443 on: March 31, 2020, 05:10:36 PM »
It seems to me that the differences between countries could be understood better with more detailed data. Those details generally don't seem to be easily available. Here is a bit more detail from Germany. One thing is that the additional cases reported on any one day can be delayed tests from previous days and often have had a much earlier onset of symptoms and therefore vary in the data when the person has become infected. That obviously delays when measures such as reducing contacts in the population shows up in the new cases count.
I have attached graphs from https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Gesamt.html
the comparison between daily rported cases and cases ploted by onset of symptoms is interesting. I include a screenshot of the cases by symptoms from a week ago, which shows that large numbers of cases were added since then which started to show symptoms a week before reporting, I think these would be cases which started with weak symptoms before getting serious enough to be tested.
The relatively low number of deaths in Germany is, it seems to me , related to the age distribution of cases, so far older people have lower rates of infection than younger people (before pension age)
In Bavaria, see https://www.lgl.bayern.de/gesundheit/infektionsschutz/infektionskrankheiten_a_z/coronavirus/karte_coronavirus/index.htm
Munich has a large number of cases but relatively few deaths (11 out of 3000 approx) a relatively remote district, Tirschenreuth has 25 deaths out of 468 cases.

karl dubhe2

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4444 on: March 31, 2020, 05:25:19 PM »
I hesitate to write this, because I'm sure the question that I heard is utter bullshit.

Someone in the comment section at the CBC argued that the Covid-19 had similar symptoms to the illness that was caused by vaping.    I dismissed it for a number of reasons, including the idea that the doctors wouldn't have been so lazy as to not look into a viral cause for the vaping issue; popcorn lungs don't sound the same as pneumonia - to me anyhow.

Should I have posted this in 'stupid questions'?   Or is there a dedicated thread that deals with stupid rumors, well, maybe I've answered my own question.   (move this post there, if appropriate.)

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4445 on: March 31, 2020, 05:43:31 PM »
Coronavirus: Walmart will start taking employees' temperatures
• Walmart said it will start taking all employees’ temperatures when they report to work.
• Walmart executive Dan Bartlett said the retailer is sending infrared thermometers to all facilities but is rolling them out first at distribution centers and in coronavirus hotspots like New York and Louisiana.
• Any worker with a temperature of 100 or higher will be asked to stay home or seek medical care and won’t be able to return to work until they’re fever-free for at least three days. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/31/coronavirus-walmart-will-start-taking-all-employees-temperatures-before-shifts.html

Edit: “Walmart is considering other crowd-management approaches, such as ones they’ve learned from Black Friday.”
Added image

This virus is unstoppable, it will spread long before someone develops a fever.

Is it really so difficult to force everyone at in public to wear a mask?

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4446 on: March 31, 2020, 05:49:12 PM »
The Wuhan coronavirus is more infectious than Smallpox.  Unlike smallpox, the Wuhan coronavirus spreads readily in the asymptomatic phase.  But similar to smallpox it is droplet spread, and survives on surfaces for a very long time.  Less fatal than smallpox, with a 15%-30% mortality rate without hospitalization.

Our only advantage is that we have hospitals and modern medicine, which will lower the mortality rate to around 5-10% instead of 20-30%.  There will be domino effects that will collapse industrialized civilization, and unfortunately most of the moralities will be side-effects, rather than directly from the Wuhan coronavirus.

Worth remembering:  The native Americans, despite living in what we would consider to be "primitive", open air arrangements, were not able to stop the less contagious Smallpox from decimating their societies. 

The Wuhan coronavirus is a novel pathogen, similar to Smallpox - droplet spread, high R0 value, high fatality rate without hospitalization, lives on surfaces for 7+ days.   

One may wish to wonder why the Wuhan coronavirus spreads asympatomatically, but SARS and MERS did not?  There's several studies indicating that this virus was being tinkered with in the Local Laboratory from 2015.  Why did the Wuhan coronavirus suddenly evolve the ability to spread asymptomatically, while its most closely related viruses SARS and MERS did not? 

Our society will snap like a dry twig if the Native Americans weren't able to stop a less infectious pathogen.

This is the collapse of industrialized civilization.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2020, 05:54:51 PM by harpy »

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4447 on: March 31, 2020, 05:52:45 PM »
Covid-19 had similar symptoms to the illness that was caused by vaping.

Vitamin E acetate found to be the reason for vaping deaths

Link >> https://marketrealist.com/2019/12/vaping-deaths-caused-by-vitamin-e-acetate-cdc-says/#adnrb=900000

Not vaping per se is causing these problems, but the wrong use of Vitamin E acetate in vaping liquid.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4448 on: March 31, 2020, 05:52:49 PM »
I hesitate to write this, because I'm sure the question that I heard is utter bullshit.

Someone in the comment section at the CBC argued that the Covid-19 had similar symptoms to the illness that was caused by vaping.    I dismissed it for a number of reasons, including the idea that the doctors wouldn't have been so lazy as to not look into a viral cause for the vaping issue; popcorn lungs don't sound the same as pneumonia - to me anyhow.

Should I have posted this in 'stupid questions'?   Or is there a dedicated thread that deals with stupid rumors, well, maybe I've answered my own question.   (move this post there, if appropriate.)
It also has similar symptoms as the flu. The funny thing in Luxembourg is that everybody hopes that he/she already had Covid-19 because he/she had some similar symptoms between Christmas and now.
What is very specific to Covid 19 is that it is really contagious, so if your kids where sick and you not, if you were sick and your  coworkers not, and your physician not... than it was not Covid 19.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #4449 on: March 31, 2020, 05:54:19 PM »
Wuhan coronavirus

The virus is called SARS-CoV-2.
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain