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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 354871 times)

SimonF92

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #450 on: February 04, 2020, 01:02:47 PM »
Also, this paper came out which suggests that the virus has HIV-derived genetic information. They claim pretty sensationally that these shared motifs did not naturally occur.

This is basically them claiming that the virus was made by humans.

I discussed this with my colleagues when it came out. Were generally agreed that the spurious claims about the "uncanny" nature of the virus are pretty unprofessional, but nonetheless there is nothing to suggest the data itself is wrong.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #451 on: February 04, 2020, 01:17:35 PM »
3.6 roentgen. Not great, not terrible.

Given my personal experience with government mortality data, there is a 50/50 that the data is horribly underreported.
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #452 on: February 04, 2020, 01:55:49 PM »
” 3.6 roentgen. Not great, not terrible.”

 :D Good comparison Archimid

Epidemic is still growing in Wuhan despite most of population staying tightly indoors for some time now.
This pretty much confirms our fears that the outbreak was much larger than the authorities let us know.

Holiday extension cannot continue forever meaning next week infected people will head back to their workplaces.

And we have first international cases with no direct link to Wuhan.

Not great, not terrible.

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #453 on: February 04, 2020, 02:16:59 PM »
Quote
This pretty much confirms our fears that the outbreak was much larger than the authorities let us know.

To me, the question is, did they tell the experts compiling data what they knew or what they wanted us to know? If the first one, then this is contained, even with every worrying new cases popping up. If the latter one, we might have already been exposed and not know it.

I hope the first one is mostly it, with a margin of error. They can't be so stupid as to play games with this.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #454 on: February 04, 2020, 03:19:00 PM »
Yes they can be that stupid.
Look at this as four zones. Wuhan, Hubei Province, China and the rest of the world.
Wuhan is almost certainly going to be devastated.
Hubei will probably be devastated too.
China is in trouble but may be able to escape devastation.
The rest of the world actually is starting to look a bit hopeful. I may be speaking too soon but it does not seem to be growing as fast as I had expected by now. However, the economic impact of the measures needed to prevent global devastation from disease may itself devastate the economy.
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #455 on: February 04, 2020, 03:53:25 PM »
To me, the question is, did they tell the experts compiling data what they knew or what they wanted us to know? If the first one, then this is contained, even with every worrying new cases popping up. If the latter one, we might have already been exposed and not know it.

I hope the first one is mostly it, with a margin of error. They can't be so stupid as to play games with this.
Answer probably isn't black or white but different shades of grey.

Wuhan has been under quarantine since Jan 23rd, 12 days, and the coronavirus incubation period is on average 5 days. How come there is no peak in cases when everybody able to do so is staying indoors avoiding contact with other people? They all know virus is rampant.

The only answer I can think of is that the outbreak started earlier and spread wider than was publicly informed. Right now it's all over Wuhan.

Remember, we are only being told the number of confirmed cases and deaths confirmed to have been caused by the coronavirus.

I'm on the lines of the Vox article from last week https://www.vox.com/2020/1/27/21082354/coronavirus-outbreak-wuhan-china-early-on-lancet

In an authoritarian regime such as Communist China, it is not advisable to be the bearer of bad news. Also, bureaucracy is heavy and there's plenty of red tape. So most likely the local authorities have stayed quiet, downplayed the risk, stalled reactions and simply hoped for the problem to disappear. Maybe their superiors didn't want to send the message higher.

Remember Chernobyl?

It's likely they are still underreporting dubious cases, tests are not always available and testing is not 100% reliable.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #456 on: February 04, 2020, 04:11:11 PM »
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #457 on: February 04, 2020, 04:34:50 PM »
I hear this can be spread by excretion and/or inanimate objects. Is this so?
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #458 on: February 04, 2020, 04:41:48 PM »
First, I would like to post this analysis from a poster on the Peak Oil forum who goes by the nom de cyber of EnergyUnlimited:
Quote
...
So probably we are now getting about 500-700 fatalities daily in Wuhan alone.
...
An internet search reveals the death rate in China is typically 8/1,000/year.  Wuhan has a population of 11 million.  (Many residents may be out-of-town and cannot return, but many visitors from out-of-town cannot leave.) Therefore, about 88,000 people die in Wuhan every year, or about 240 people every day.  Now the tricky part.  I found a paper about India which indicated about 18% of deaths occur in hospitals.  Would it be about the same for the city of Wuhan?  Probably not, I'll guess that in a city, a much larger percentage of deaths occur in hospitals.  Also, many/most/all out-of-hospital deaths may be routed through "burial management centers".  Would these be included in the purported "500"+ deaths in Wuhan? Probably.  Conclusion:  my sleuthing suggests about 250-500 deaths/day due to the coronavirus IF that "500-700 fatalities daily in Wuhan" is accurate. Yes, I'll have some salt with that.
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #459 on: February 04, 2020, 05:07:58 PM »
The MOH in Singapore has just reported a local transmission cluster associated with a Chinese health food shop that was popular with Chinese tourists. It includes a clear case of transmission from the first Singaporean infected to her Indonesian domestic worker. Worrying.

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/coronavirus-spore-reports-first-cases-of-local-transmission-4-out-of-6-new-cases-did-not

https://www.moh.gov.sg/2019-ncov-wuhan
From the same article, there's this disturbing anecdote:
Quote
On Tuesday, Malaysian health authorities also confirmed the first citizen to be infected with the coronavirus, bringing the total number of confirmed cases in the country to 10. They said the 41-year-old Malaysian had travelled to Singapore for a meeting last month with colleagues from China - including one from Wuhan. But he showed symptoms only on Jan 29, nearly a week after he returned to Malaysia.
I honestly can't see how this quite contagious virus can be stopped with this kind of incubation period.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #460 on: February 04, 2020, 05:39:59 PM »
Domino Effect ...

-------------------------------

Hyundai Suspends Domestic Production Over China Outbreak
https://techxplore.com/news/2020-02-hyundai-domestic-production-china-outbreak.html

South Korea's largest automaker Hyundai Motor will suspend all domestic production because of a lack of parts due to the coronavirus outbreak in China, it said Tuesday.

The global car industry operates on tight supply lines and was thrown into turmoil when Japan's Fukushima earthquake and tsunami in 2011 knocked out a Renesas Electronics factory producing a vital and widely used computer chip.

The outbreak of the coronavirus had disrupted the supply of parts for Hyundai, the company said.

"Hyundai Motor has decided to suspend its production lines from operating at all of its plants in Korea," the carmaker said in a statement.

-----------------------------------------

Clock Ticking for Companies That Depend On China Imports
https://techxplore.com/news/2020-02-clock-companies-china-imports.html

... If much of industrial China remains on lockdown for the next few weeks - a very real possibility - Western retailers, auto companies and manufacturers that depend on Chinese imports will start to run out of the goods they depend on.

In order to meet deadlines for summer goods, retail experts say that Chinese factories would need to start ramping up production by March 15. If Chinese factories were instead to remain idle through May 1, it would likely cripple retailers' crucial back-to-school and fall seasons.

Wuhan, the Chinese city where the outbreak hit hardest, is a center of automotive production. It's been closed off, along with neighboring cities, isolating more than 50 million people and bringing factories to a standstill.

So far, U.S. automakers haven't had to curb production for want of Chinese parts. But the clock is ticking , said David Closs, professor emeritus at Michigan State University's Department of Supply Chain Management.

"I would say it's weeks at the most,'' Closs said. "One to two to three weeks.''

The partial shutdown of Wuhan has already harmed the production of TV display panels and raised prices, according to a report by research group IHS Markit. The city has five factories making liquid crystal displays, known as LCDs, and organic light-emitting diodes, known as OLEDs, both of which are used for television and laptop monitors. China accounts for more than half of the global production of these display panels.

... Times have changed in ways that are not favorable to containing the economic damage. Back in 2003, during the SARS outbreak, China was the world's workshop for cheap goods—toys and sneakers, for instance. Now, China has moved up to sophisticated machine parts and electronics like LCDs. And it accounts for about 16% of global economic output, up significantly from just 4% in 2003. ...

----------------------------------------------

Coronavirus: 'We May Have No Clothes Left To Sell'
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51357030

-------------------------------------------------

Virus Fears Prompt Shipping Restraints on Vessels From China
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-04/virus-fears-prompt-asia-shipping-restrictions-ports-update

Vessels and trains coming from China are in focus as nations take steps to halt the spread of a deadly coronavirus that originated in the world’s second-biggest economy. Here’s a roundup of some of the latest efforts by authorities around Asia, including quarantines and checks.

Bloomberg is tracking the outbreak on the terminal and online.

---------------------------------------

New Zealand Loggers, U.S. Food Exporters Suffer from China's Virus Clampdown
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-supplychain/new-zealand-loggers-us-food-exporters-suffer-from-chinas-virus-clampdown-idUSKBN1ZY11B

(Reuters) - The economic impact of China’s coronavirus lockdown is being felt across the globe, with exporters, miners and manufacturers of everything from coal and timber to meat and fruit facing delays and potential shipment cancellations.

... For now, the effect is more pronounced for smaller items such as food and forestry products - bulk items like iron ore, fuel and coal have mainly automatic offloading and transfer to storage that has not been affected.

At Gisborne’s Eastland Port on the east coast of New Zealand’s North Island, log exports to China – the port’s main source of revenue – have been halted until further notice, while forestry workers across New Zealand have been told to go home. The port is the country’s second largest log exporter. (... good news for the forest)

Also, New Zealand’s NZ$300 million in annual lobster sales to China have also been badly hit. Local prices of rock lobster have nearly halved as exporters seek to offload stock and fishermen have stopped fresh landings, traders said.

... Compounding the impact of port congestion are the several city-wide lockdowns aimed at stopping the virus’ spread that are preventing people from getting to work.

That is leading to reduced staffing for all the necessary functions at typical entry ports, such as customs officers and freight-handling and inspection workers.

There are also reports of a shortage of pilots for tugboats, meaning large ships now take longer than normal to dock at certain ports.

The real problem now is the downstream receiving ports, such as (around) Shanghai and Ningbo,” said a logistics manager at Yingkou port in the northeastern province of Liaoning, a major iron ore and coal hub.

“What we heard from their report is that they don’t have enough people to drive trucks and boats to transfer goods out of the ports by road and by river. So they are having congestion and want us to slow down our pace to send vessels to them.”

The manager of a state-backed logistics firm in Ningbo said that the waiting time has swelled to “at least four days” to unload river barges due to the staffing shortages.



---------------------------------------

Xi Jinping Warns Virus May Impact China’s Social Stability
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-04/xi-warns-virus-may-impact-china-s-stability-at-rare-meeting

Chinese President Xi Jinping called on all officials to quickly work together to contain a deadly new virus at a rare meeting of top leaders, saying the outcome would directly impact social stability in the country.

------------------------------

Coronavirus To Test Just How Reliant the World Is On Chinese Manufacturers, With Asia Braced for Shock Wave
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3048950/coronavirus-test-just-how-reliant-world-chinese-manufacturers

With regions of China accounting for 80 per cent of exports on lockdown, factories around Asia are being forced into looking for alternative supplies

Workers trapped in China amid travel bans, while trade watchers as far afield as California wait for boats from China to stop arriving

The world’s second largest economy remains on lockdown, with factories in 14 provinces covering 70 per cent of China’s gross domestic product and 80 per cent of its exports ordered not to open until Monday at the earliest.

“Anything that limits the free movement of goods or people is bad for shipping,” said Tim Huxley, founder of the Hong Kong container freight shipper, Mandarin Shipping. “The expected demand decline in China is already being factored into prices of commodities and shipping rates. It’s very difficult to make any decisions while we’re still unclear about how long this is going to go on for.”

Some are sceptical as to whether manufacturing will resume as normal on Monday, given the virus is still spreading, albeit at a slower rate in recent days.

“Some entire factories may not reopen at all because their entire management and a good part of their operators are still blocked in Hubei province – and that is true of many factories,” said Renaud Anjoram, partner and CEO of manufacturing consultancy firm Sofeast.

Within mainland China, oil demand has dried up by 20 per cent, Bloomberg reported, amid a freeze in travel, while metal prices have plunged on consecutive days since markets reopened on Monday, a sign of expected weak demand in key industrial sectors.

All this means the optimism that followed the signing of a phase one US-China trade deal barely three weeks ago already feels like a distant memory. ...
« Last Edit: February 04, 2020, 10:22:42 PM by vox_mundi »
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #461 on: February 04, 2020, 05:42:18 PM »
I hear this can be spread by excretion and/or inanimate objects. Is this so?

It will stay alive and spreadable on hard surfaces for at least 12 hrs (some say 48 hrs in the right conditions?) so there is a REAL need for frequent hand washing/sanitizing if in infected areas lest you introduce it to yourself via mouth/nose/eyes?

It appears quite large (400-500 nm?) so N95 type masks will provide protection from inhaling any atomised via coughing/sneezing.

Clothes can be 'hot washed' to clean(kill!) any unwelcome 'guests' and outdoor clothes can be 'sun bathed' to let the UV do the same job

Folk should focus on the hand washing most though.

You'd be surprised just how often a person touches/scratches/rubs their own face!
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etienne

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #462 on: February 04, 2020, 05:44:38 PM »
...
Chinese Officials Can’t Help Lying About the Wuhan Virus
...

We should acknowledge that they are dealing with a major crisis, and maybe reporting is not the first priority in Wuhan. I guess we are smart enough to understand it.

Even if the data is not perfect, I guess the ratios are more or less correct. I would say that the death/recovery ratio is pessimistic because easy cases are probably not counted at all.
« Last Edit: February 04, 2020, 05:54:34 PM by etienne »

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #463 on: February 04, 2020, 05:47:18 PM »
Also, this paper came out which suggests that the virus has HIV-derived genetic information. They claim pretty sensationally that these shared motifs did not naturally occur.

This is basically them claiming that the virus was made by humans.

I discussed this with my colleagues when it came out. Were generally agreed that the spurious claims about the "uncanny" nature of the virus are pretty unprofessional, but nonetheless there is nothing to suggest the data itself is wrong.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v1.full.pdf

Quick Retraction of a Faulty Coronavirus Paper Was a Good Moment for Science
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/03/retraction-faulty-coronavirus-paper-good-moment-for-science/

As fears of the novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV continued to spread last Friday, an inflammatory new paper appeared on bioRxiv, a preprint server, where scientists post work that hasn’t been vetted.

Titled “Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag,” the paper claimed to find similarities between the new coronavirus and HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. The use of the word “uncanny” in the title, together with “unlikely to be fortuitous” in the abstract, led some to think that the authors were suggesting the virus had somehow been engineered by humans.

The paper, from academic institutions in New Delhi, India, was critical and alarming, if true.

Except that it wasn’t.


... In a nutshell, commenters on bioRxiv and Twitter said, the author’s methods seemed rushed, and the findings were at most a coincidence. By Saturday morning, bioRxiv had placed a special warning on all papers about coronavirus. Later Saturday, the authors commented on their paper, saying they were withdrawing it. And on Sunday, a more formal retraction appeared: “This paper has been withdrawn by its authors. They intend to revise it in response to comments received from the research community on their technical approach and their interpretation of the results.”

Formal Retraction: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v2
« Last Edit: February 04, 2020, 10:09:51 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

bluice

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #464 on: February 04, 2020, 06:09:13 PM »
Air freight out of China will be difficult even they get back to work next week. Because passenger flights are cancelled all the belly freight capacity is unavailable. To make matters worse many if not most freighters have cancelled flights also. I work in logistics and can confirm this is becoming a problem.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #465 on: February 04, 2020, 06:33:36 PM »
I think the Chinese are  trying to honestly report numbers but it is a huge place and different regions will have different levels of response.
Translation 
People's Network
Quote
Yesterday at 18:25 from Weibo.weibo.com
[ # 福建 170 人 被 被 处理 为 不 被 防 力 CONTROL being ineffective # ] Fujian Provincial Commission for Discipline Inspection has reported that since the outbreak, the problem of ineffective prevention and control of the epidemic has been held accountable in accordance with regulations, disciplines, and laws. A total of 100 cases have been investigated and handled, and 170 people have been handled. Among them, 12 were disciplined for party discipline and government affairs. The briefing pointed out that even if the epidemic prevention and control is out of chain or missed, it may cause irreparable losses to the lives and health of the people. (Fujian Commission for Discipline Inspection and Supervision) Website link

We should not take part in propagating unnecessary conjecture of ulterior motives and conspiracy's
This is concerning enough without adding the fears of over active imaginations. China has publicly shut down its economy. The Chinese government are not trying to hide their concerns, under report the extent of the problem  or save face over this. 
« Last Edit: February 04, 2020, 06:40:30 PM by KiwiGriff »
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oren

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #466 on: February 04, 2020, 06:41:40 PM »
Well said KiwiGriff. The Chinese are taking very drastic measures other countries would be shirking from. Blaming them serves nothing.

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #467 on: February 04, 2020, 06:44:32 PM »
Yes KiwiGriff, well said.


Off-topic:
Re: missing parts

This is how break-down/collapse can start. With a missing parts 'shock wave'. And then exponentially more missing parts and halted production.

I know it is far too early to observe that happening but the first signs are 'interesting'.
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #468 on: February 04, 2020, 07:01:48 PM »
Chinese Abandon Food Delivery Fearing Drivers Will Spread Virus
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-abandon-food-delivery-fearing-220000806.html

The deadly coronavirus is disrupting China’s enormous food-delivery networks, complicating daily life for millions and straining businesses integral to its economy.

Over the last decade, the food-delivery industry became far more pervasive in China than in any other country, serving more than 500 million customers and employing three million delivery drivers. But as the virus death toll rises, those peripatetic workers, in trademark blue and yellow jackets, are being shunned as potential carriers of the disease.

That is rattling the $36 billion business and every slice of the economy it touches. Restaurants that rely on the services are moribund. Consumers are scrambling for alternatives.

Reports of sick couriers are turbocharging anxieties, amplified by concern that China’s censors minimize the dangers. In one story that ripped through social media, a driver made three dozen deliveries across the coastal city of Qingdao before his wife was officially diagnosed with the virus. In Shenzhen, local media reported an infected courier had worked for the previous 14 days while showing no symptoms.

----------------------------------------

Fearing Virus, Hong Kong Residents Stock Up On Food, Essentials
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-hongkong-stockpiling/fearing-virus-hong-kong-residents-stock-up-on-food-essentials-idUSKBN1ZX0CT

(Reuters) - Panic-stricken residents have emptied shelves in major supermarkets in Hong Kong, stockpiling meat, rice, cleaning products and soap as fears escalate over a coronavirus epidemic on the mainland.

The rush to procure food in the city of 7.4 million people is unprecedented, residents say, describing it as far worse than the panic during the 2003 outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) that killed nearly 800 people around the world, including nearly 300 in Hong Kong.


The rush to buy food and cleaning products comes as some shoppers said they were concerned that a potential shutdown of the border would impact the supply of products.

Around 90 percent of the city’s total food supply is imported, with the bulk coming from the mainland, according to official data.

... “It is worrying that food is being stockpiled but what is even scarier is the stockpiling of masks and sanitizers,” said a man who would only go by his first name, Nelson, who was shopping with his wife.

So frantic is the search for masks that police on Friday said a 56-year-old medical worker was in custody for stealing 36 face masks and gloves from a hospital where she worked.



------------------------------------

$9 Cabbages, Emergency Pork: Coronavirus Tests China on Food
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/04/business/china-coronavirus-food-prices.html

Officials are pushing to keep produce flowing and prices down as nervous shoppers stock up, challenging the country’s ability to feed itself.

China's 'virus crisis' is testing China’s ability to feed its 1.4 billion people, one of the Communist Party’s proudest achievements. Cooped up at home and fearful that the epidemic could last weeks or even months, families across China are hoarding provisions, making it harder for shops and supermarkets to keep fresh food in stock. Many places have closed off roads to passing traffic, slowing truck shipments and raising freight costs.

Chinese officials have vowed to keep food flowing to Wuhan, the inland city of 11 million at the center of the outbreak.

Shouguang, one of the country’s biggest hubs for growing, trading and shipping vegetables, has begun donating produce by the truckload to the locked-down city. Officials are on alert for signs of strained supplies throughout the rest of the country. Retail prices for fresh food have crept up in many places.

The Shouguang vegetable price index, a widely watched daily gauge, rocketed to a multiyear high last week. Poultry farmers are warning that supplies of chicken feed are running low because of transport restrictions and millions of birds could die as a result.

As if one dangerous disease was not enough for China right now, the national government over the weekend reported a “highly pathogenic” outbreak of bird flu at a chicken farm in Hunan Province. Some 4,500 chickens had died, and 17,000 were culled preemptively.

Grocery bills in China were already climbing in recent months as an epidemic of swine fever ravaged the nation’s hog population. Rising consumer prices played a role in the protests that culminated in the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, and the government has worried about inflation ever since. Hence Beijing’s herculean efforts to keep food moving as the coronavirus brings parts of China’s economy to a near halt.

The authorities have made a show of punishing stores that gouge consumers — one supermarket received a $70,000 fine for selling cabbage at $9 a head, according to official news media.

Two state-run food giants have been ordered to ramp up supplies of rice, flour, cooking oil and meat to Wuhan and Hubei Province, where the city is situated. The city of Tianjin announced recently that Kang Shi Fu, a giant maker of instant noodles, had increased production to 4 million noodle packets a day.


Shouguang greenhouses

... Wang Zhigang, a manager at one of Shouguang’s main wholesale produce markets, said that as long as the virus was kept away and the city could keep shipments moving, China’s vegetable supplies should remain ample.

“If Shouguang is locked down, then there’s nothing we can do,” Mr. Wang said through his protective face mask.

Shandong, the coastal province where Shouguang is situated, has so far reported 275 cases of the new virus, fewer than some less-populated provinces.

At first glance, Shouguang, a nondescript city of 1.1 million people, does not look like an indispensable node in China’s economy. But the vast greenhouses that line the streets here produce 4.5 million metric tons of vegetables a year. A far greater amount moves through the city’s wholesale markets annually en route to every corner of China.

Recently, as virus concerns have driven up demand for vegetables across the country, farmers in Shouguang have been tapping their reserves, according to Mr. Wang, the wholesale market manager. Some growers here keep months’ worth of potatoes, radishes, onions, cabbages and other vegetables that can weather cold storage. At the front gate of the wholesale market, workers check the temperatures of the truck drivers who bring produce in and out. All vehicles are sprayed with disinfectant. Outsiders are forbidden.

------------------------------------

Virus Fears Stop Two Cruise Ship Visits in New Caledonia
https://www.rnz.co.nz/international/pacific-news/408819/virus-fears-stop-two-cruise-ship-visits-in-new-caledonia

Two cruise ships arriving from Australia and Vanuatu have failed to make scheduled stops in New Caledonia amid fears by locals the Wuhan coronavirus could be introduced.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #469 on: February 04, 2020, 07:19:46 PM »
Wuhan Medic: 'Many More Infections Than Official Numbers Show'
https://www.dw.com/en/wuhan-medic-many-more-infections-than-official-numbers-show/a-52252563



Jiesi Luo*: I think there are many more infections and deaths from coronavirus than have been officially reported. When preliminary tests determine that a patient has a lung sickness, the nucleic acid test (NAT), which detects viruses, cannot always be carried out because the waiting list is too long. The patient is therefore not diagnosed.

Furthermore, if someone dies from the lung sickness, and has not taken the NAT test, the fatality is not statistically registered as having been caused by the coronavirus.

---------------------------------------------

UK Tells All Britons to Leave China - 'If They Can'
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-51374056

The Foreign Office has urged UK citizens to leave China if they can. In updated travel advice it says:

Quote
The British Consulates-General in Wuhan and Chongqing are currently closed. If you’re in China and able to leave, you should do so. The elderly and those with pre-existing medical conditions may be at heightened risk ...

Emily Thornberry, the shadow foreign secretary, has sharply criticised the government’s advice to British nationals in China that they should return to the UK.

Quote
From the very start of this outbreak, the government’s response has been a total shambles, and now they appear to be telling British nationals in China simply to fend for themselves in terms of getting out of the country.

How on earth has the Foreign Office not got plans and protocols in place for how these crises are managed? The first duty of any government is to protect its citizens, at home and abroad, and Boris Johnson is manifestly failing to do that.

------------------------------------

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/04/coronavirus-live-updates-china-wuhan-outbreak-death-toll-latest-news-update

The AFP agency reports that the foreign ministers of France and Germany are considering the possibility that Europe could impose a US-style ban on foreign visitors who have recently been to China, in an effort to battle the spread of coronavirus.

“Indeed, there is the question of possible travel restrictions or at least increased examination [of travellers) at the border,” Germany’s Jens Spahn said at a meeting in Paris with his French counterpart Agnes Buzyn.

He was responding to a question about whether Europe would consider a ban similar to that imposed by the United States, which China has accused of spreading “panic”.

“It makes no sense that a single country takes measures” on a continent with border-free travel between most nations, said Spahn.


----------------------------------

Surgical Mask Exports May be Curbed
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1850464/surgical-mask-exports-may-be-curbed


The Thai cabinet agreed measures on Tuesday that could lead to a reduction in the export of surgical masks to prevent shortages at home as health authorities try to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

-----------------------------------

Price Control for Face Masks
https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1849949/price-control-for-face-masks

The government is putting face masks and alcohol-based hand sanitiser on the state price control list as part of efforts to deal with the deadly virus outbreak.

--------------------------------------

Tesla Offers Free Charging in China Because of Coronavirus
https://www.scmp.com/tech/article/3048381/tesla-offers-free-charging-china-because-coronavirus

The EV maker temporarily closed its Shanghai Gigafactory and is donating millions of yuan to help fight the virus
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sark

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #470 on: February 04, 2020, 08:15:14 PM »
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

this is expected.  halting the import of cases can delay a global pandemic, but it will become endemic as it mutates to survive internationally
I am not a scientist

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #471 on: February 04, 2020, 08:17:38 PM »

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #472 on: February 04, 2020, 08:31:03 PM »
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

this is expected.  halting the import of cases can delay a global pandemic, but it will become endemic as it mutates to survive internationally

If you look at that gisanddata map, there are something like 20 new cases in Asia today. Thailand and Singapore both have 6 new cases, and there are a few countries that have 10 or more cases that were below 10 yesterday.

blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #473 on: February 04, 2020, 08:34:51 PM »
THIS!


TerryM

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #474 on: February 04, 2020, 09:36:36 PM »
Xenophobia has no place in this discussion.


China, and the Chinese are making huge sacrifices in an effort to buy the rest of the world some time to prepare for a horror that is almost certainly coming our way.


I know of no other country, or people, that would attempt such a Sisyphean task. To harass them for errors they may make as they face the real possibility of annihilation is the most ungrateful response I can imagine.


It's like chiding Horatius for not leading an orderly retreat, or chastising him for his unfashionable choice of armor.
Terry

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #475 on: February 04, 2020, 09:49:34 PM »
Chinese Officials Say Priority is to Stop Mild Coronavirus Cases From Getting Worse
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048993/chinese-officials-say-priority-stop-mild-coronavirus-cases

National Health Commission admits Wuhan lacked intensive care facilities at start of the outbreak, but more beds and staff have now been provided

And an epidemiologist says preliminary tests have shown two drugs, Arbidol and Darunavir, could effectively inhibit replication of the new strain

Chinese health officials on Tuesday said that the priority now was to prevent patients with mild symptoms of the new coronavirus from becoming critically ill, and that the treatments being used were effective.

-------------------------------

China Predicts Fall in Wuhan Mortality Rate as Mainland Deaths Hit 425
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048815/coronavirus-china-death-toll-hits-425-new-cases-hubei-jump

There are now more than 20,000 confirmed cases of the new virus on the mainland, and over 2,700 of those patients are critically ill, according to the officials.

Jiao Yahui, deputy director of the NHC’s Medical Administration Bureau, said that, as of Monday and based on confirmed cases nationwide, the national fatality rate was 2.1 per cent, with the vast majority of deaths in Hubei province.

The central Chinese province has lost 414 people, or 97 per cent of the mainland death toll. According to Jiao, the mortality rate in the provincial capital Wuhan has reached 4.9 per cent, with 313 deaths so far. The mortality rate for Hubei is 3.1 per cent, the highest of any province in the country.

Jiao said that with the exception of Hubei, the average fatality rate was only of 0.16 per cent, with males accounting for two-thirds of the death toll.


Jiao said China had taken further measures to bring down the mortality rate in Hubei, especially Wuhan, with another 1,000 beds for critical cases concentrated in hospitals with ICU capabilities and medical teams with relevant experience in handling critical respiratory disease.

------------------------------------------

China Targets Mild Coronavirus Cases With New Wuhan Medical Shelters
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048989/china-targets-mild-coronavirus-cases-new-wuhan-medical-shelters

China has converted a stadium and two convention centres in the central Chinese city of Wuhan into makeshift hospitals, creating 3,800 more beds for coronavirus patients with mild symptoms and suspected cases.

Authorities are planning to build eight more of the temporary medical facilities and are mobilising medical teams and equipment reserved for emergencies in 20 provinces to go to Wuhan to staff the centres, according to official media.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #476 on: February 04, 2020, 10:06:10 PM »
Wanted: Tailors
https://www.scmp.com/topics/coronavirus-outbreak

A hospital in southwestern China's Yunnan province is looking for tailors to make protective suits in a last-ditch effort to support medical staff in the face of the spreading coronavirus.

In a message widely circulated on the Chinese social media platform Weibo, the People’s Hospital in Chuxiong autonomous prefecture said the desperate decision was made after the hospital tried several supply channels without success.

“To ensure normal operation of disease control and patient treatment, the hospital has decided to self-make protective clothing,” it said in the message.

Chuxiong, in the central part of Yunnan province, has a population of nearly 2.8 million people, about 40 per cent of whom are ethnic minorities.

China has continued to increase overseas purchases of medical protective gear and other equipment to battle the coronavirus. The customs agency said imports reached 810 million yuan (US$115 million) from January 24 to February 2, with protective gear accounting for 75 per cent.

---------------------------

China Scrambles to Locate Passengers On Cruise After At Least Four Diagnosed With Coronavirus

Guangdong province has issued an emergency alert for people who sailed on a China-Vietnam cruise after four passengers were confirmed with coronavirus

Authorities are urging the 4,000 people who were on board the World Dream vessel to report to local disease control centres

-------------------------

Surge in Chinese Employees Working from Home Crash Office Apps Amid Coronavirus Outbreak

Demand for video conferencing services and other online workplace services soared on Monday as employees in China resumed work after the Lunar New Year holiday

Most of the country is working remotely this week as authorities tell businesses to stay closed, to help prevent the spread of a deadly new coronavirus

------------------------

Casinos to Close in Macau for At Least Two Weeks After Hotel Worker Infected

Major blow for world’s casino capital as Macau leader says fortnight hiatus will come into force soon

Galaxy Macau employee, 29, caught the virus in local transmission at Lunar New Year gathering
« Last Edit: February 04, 2020, 10:23:47 PM by vox_mundi »
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #477 on: February 05, 2020, 12:24:00 AM »
So we break through 500 reported dead in a few hours and 24,000 infected..... not good if we do see spread outside China, we almost have a template now for what to expect (as long as we do not see further mutations on its transmission potential/seriousness!) should we begin to see it spread in other nations.....
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VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

be cause

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #478 on: February 05, 2020, 12:42:28 AM »
  Has 'Pandemic' become the WHO's equivalent of the UN's interpretation of 'genocide' ?

    i.e. Not to be used unless everyone is dead ?  .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #479 on: February 05, 2020, 12:46:03 AM »


Global Confirmed = 24537
Suspected = 23260
Severe/Critical = 3219
Deaths = 492

https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia

-------------------------------

The overnight figures indicated a small drop in Hubei’s fatality rate, falling to around 2.9 per cent from 3.1 per cent the day before.

----------------------------------

Visitors From Wuhan ‘Certain’ To Have Infected Vancouver Woman With Coronavirus, Making her British Columbia’s Second Patient
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049013/visitors-wuhan-certain-have-infected-vancouver-woman-coronavirus

Visitors from Wuhan appear to have infected a Vancouver woman with novel coronavirus, likely making her British Columbia’s second and Canada’s fifth case of the disease, local health authorities said..

Provincial health officer Bonnie Henry said health officials were “quite certain” that someone in the small group of visitors had infected the woman in her 50s.

But despite the apparent case of human-to-human transmission of the disease, none of the visitors has shown any symptoms

-----------------------------

Princess Cruises Confirms that 10 Passengers have Tested Positive
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/05/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

"We were notified that amongst the samples that have completed testing,10 people have tested positive for Coronavirus," Princess Cruises said in a Tuesday statement after the first phase of health screening for guests and crew onboard the Diamond Princess.

There are more than 3,700 people onboard, and about half of the 2,666 guests are from Japan, the cruise liner said.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanRuggiero/status/1224845334523916288



Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said tests had been carried out on more than 200 passengers.  ... 10 out of 200 ... 3500 to go.  :o

---------------------

Nike Expects 'Material Impact' On Operations in China

Nike has closed half of its stores in China, saying the outbreak will have a "material impact" on its operations there.

... "This situation was not contemplated at the time we provided Q3 guidance during our Q2 fiscal year 2020 earnings call," the company said in a statement. (... ya think)

--------------------------

California Husband and Wife Infected with Coronavirus 'Suddenly Much More Ill'
https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/481377-california-husband-and-wife-infected-with

Two people diagnosed with the deadly Wuhan coronavirus became “suddenly much more ill” on Sunday evening, and a couple was taken to a hospital in San Francisco by Monday, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.

The two patients, a husband and wife hailing from San Benito County, were diagnosed with the coronavirus after the husband had returned from traveling to China.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2020, 02:10:35 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #480 on: February 05, 2020, 02:22:49 AM »


New suspected cases falling? Up 3971 having been over 5000 per day
Would expect new suspected cases to fall before new confirmed cases start falling and possibly by quite some time if the testing has fallen behind what they would like to be able to test.

Quarantine beginning to work?


(Earlier question how long can posts keep ahead of deaths? Til recently: deaths 492, posts on this thread 480; How dare we think a life isn't worth a post?)


vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #481 on: February 05, 2020, 02:55:12 AM »
Experts Envision Two Scenarios If the New Coronavirus Isn’t Contained
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/

It’s still possible that quarantines and travel bans will first halt the outbreak and then eradicate the microbe, and the world will never see 2019-nCoV again, but many experts view that happy outcome as increasingly unlikely.

“Independent self-sustaining outbreaks [of 2019-nCoV] in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of pre-symptomatic cases,” scientists at the University of Hong Kong concluded in a paper published in The Lancet last week.

Researchers are therefore asking what seems like a defeatist question but whose answer has huge implications for public policy: What will a world with endemic 2019-nCoV — circulating permanently in the human population — be like?

Experts see two possibilities, each with unique consequences:

Just another coronavirus

2019-nCoV joins the four coronaviruses now circulating in people.

...Although little-known outside health care and virology circles, the current four “are already part of the winter-spring seasonal landscape of respiratory disease,” Adalja said. Two of them, OC43 and 229E, were discovered in the 1960s but had circulated in cows and bats, respectively, for centuries. The others, HKU1 and NL63, were discovered after the 2003-2004 SARS outbreak, also after circulating in animals. It’s not known how long they’d existed in people before scientists noticed, but since they jumped from animals to people before the era of virology, it isn’t known whether that initial jump triggered widespread disease.

OC43 and 229E are more prevalent than other endemic human coronaviruses, especially in children and the elderly. Together, the four are responsible for an estimated one-quarter of all colds.

All four, in particular HKU1, can cause pneumonia, and sometimes death.

In one of the few close looks at OC43 and 229E, researchers measured their infection rates during four winters (1999-2003) in Rochester, N.Y., among 2,897 healthy outpatients, adults with cardiopulmonary disease, and patients hospitalized with acute respiratory illnesses.

... All told, 35% of infections with 229E and 18% with OC43 were asymptomatic. “Asymptomatic infection … [meaning] without respiratory symptoms was fairly common,” the authors concluded.

... There were 96 coronavirus infections among the 1,388 hospitalized patients. OC43 caused more severe disease than 229E, requiring intensive care for 15% of those infected. About one-third of the patients admitted to the hospital with either coronavirus developed pneumonia; one of the 229E patients and two of the OC43 patients died.

2019-nCoV returns repeatedly like bad seasonal flu

The “seasonal” reflects the fact that viruses can’t tolerate high heat and humidity, preferring the cool and dry conditions of winter and spring.

The “bad” reflects the fact that the number of 2019-nCoV cases and deaths so far suggests that the new coronavirus has a fatality rate around 2%. That’s almost certainly an overestimate, since mild cases aren’t all being counted.

“One scenario is that we go through a pandemic,” as the current outbreak may become, said Columbia’s Morse. “Then, depending what the virus does, it could quite possibly settle down into a respiratory illness that comes back seasonally.”

The toll that would take depends on how many people it infects and how virulent it is. Virulence reflects the viruses’ genetics.

The genome of the novel coronavirus consists of a single stand of RNA. Microbes with that kind of genome mutate “notoriously quickly,” said biologist Michael Farzan of Scripps Research

... SARS has a molecular proofreading system that reduces its mutation rate, and the new coronavirus’s similarity to SARS at the genomic level suggests it does, too. “That makes the mutation rate much, much lower than for flu or HIV,” Farzan said. That lowers the chance that the virus will evolve in some catastrophic way to, say, become significantly more lethal.

... The toll of a seasonal-flu-like coronavirus also depends on immunity — which is also scientifically uncertain. Exposure to the four endemic coronaviruses produces immunity that lasts longer than that to influenza, Webby said, but not permanent immunity. Like respiratory syncytial virus, which can re-infect adults who had it in childhood, coronavirus immunity wanes. ...

University of Hong Kong researchers estimate the disease will peak in April.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2020, 03:40:46 AM by vox_mundi »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #482 on: February 05, 2020, 04:52:54 AM »
Coronavirus: Desperate Scenes as 10,000 Queue for Masks at Hong Kong Industrial Estate
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3049082/coronavirus-10000-queue-masks-hong-kong

Huge crowds camp overnight in Kowloon for surgical masks after company promises thousands of boxes, as supplies dwindle across city.

A total of 11,000 boxes containing 50 masks each would be up for sale in the next two days, the company said.

Video at: https://mobile.twitter.com/SCMPHongKong/status/1224877947292504064

------------------------------

Coronavirus: Two More Cases Confirmed in Hong Kong, Suspected To Have Been Transmitted Locally, Hours After City Confirms First Death
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3048839/coronavirus-hong-kong-confirms-first-death-39

Two new cases, both in their 60s, had not travelled to mainland China recently, and health chief warns of potential for outbreak in city

City suffers first fatality related to deadly virus originating in Wuhan, the second outside mainland China

------------------------

Two Australians, One American Among 10 Infected On Cruise Ship
https://www.princess.com/news/notices_and_advisories/notices/diamond-princess-update.html

Two Australians are among the 10 people who have tested positive for coronavirus on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the cruise company Carnival have confirmed.

The other people infected are three Japanese, three from Hong Kong, one American and one Filipino crewmember.

---------------------------

Passengers On Another Cruise Ship Are Being Tested for the Virus
https://amp.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3048784/coronavirus-least-three-cases-among-4000-passengers-china

Coronavirus confirmed in at least three passengers who sailed from Guangzhou to Vietnam, with two further cases suspected

Cruise ship containing more than 4,000 passengers sailed on January 19 for five nights, before ferrying new passengers to Hong Kong

World Dream, which is run by Dream Cruises, was denied entry to the southern Taiwan port of Kaohsiung on Tuesday and docked in Hong Kong on Wednesday. All passengers and crew are undergoing health checks, Cable TV reported, according to Reuters.

The ship visited Taiwan’s northern Keelung port on Monday, Taiwan’s health authorities said, and some passengers were allowed to disembark.

The ship can carry 3,376 passengers and 2,000 crew.

Update: 30 crew on Hong Kong cruise ship have coronavirus symptoms – Reuters

Hong Kong’s health department says 30 crew on the World Dream cruise ship docked in Hong Kong have symptoms of the coronavirus.

It added that department staff are conducting tests on 1,800 crew and passengers on board the ship.

It was refused a berth in port in Taiwan on Tuesday and returned to Hong Kong.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2020, 07:06:29 AM by vox_mundi »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #483 on: February 05, 2020, 11:26:58 AM »
Are many Chinese getting sick, self-isolating in quarantined apartments, and dying there to decay and start secondary disease outbreaks?
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blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #484 on: February 05, 2020, 11:27:59 AM »
When the host dies, the virus dies as well.

bluice

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #485 on: February 05, 2020, 11:38:23 AM »
It is important and interesting to investigate what China has done right and what could have been improved. This is not China-bashing and to call it such is dishonest and unhelpful.

Obviously China has taken huge and painful steps to contain the outbreak and the rest of the world benefits from their sacrifices. It's remarkable how much resources China is able to concentrate when their machine starts rolling.

Also it is very likely, if not outright obvious, that initial response in Hubei could have been swifter. There is a lot of bureaucratic inertia as well as social pressure not to cry wolf in such circumstances. They probably only report the confirmed cases and local authorities are not throwing around numbers even if they see that confirming cases is difficult to the point that only a fraction gets reported.

I think reaction in the West would have been the opposite. Lot of focus and information from ground zero while everything would be done to keep trade, travel and the economy running as usual as possible.

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #486 on: February 05, 2020, 11:49:39 AM »
I do not trust the central authorities by default, but I doubt a quarantine of this magnitude can be successfully done in the US. The hospital was impressive. The data sharing could have been better but it seems to me that the basic statistics are about right. I haven't seen anything raising red flags.

The work that people on the ground, particularly hospital workers is truly commendable.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #487 on: February 05, 2020, 02:41:41 PM »
When the host dies, the virus dies as well.
I was thinking bacterial disease.
« Last Edit: February 05, 2020, 03:15:01 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
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blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #488 on: February 05, 2020, 03:09:55 PM »
I bet they figured out how to deal with dead bodies even in China.

Other than the US still not having figured out elections.

crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #489 on: February 05, 2020, 03:10:46 PM »
When the host dies, the virus dies as well.
I was thinking bacterial disease.

Quarantined doesn't mean no telephone for people to check on them. If there are a few lonely souls without family and friends, is the current situation much/any different to normal? Perhaps it is better than normal if they are in special quarantined apartment with food deliveries?

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #490 on: February 05, 2020, 03:15:14 PM »
Is this the result of a computer hack or bug, or is this at all plausible?
Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
Quote
Tencent briefly lists 154,023 infections and 24,589 deaths from Wuhan coronavirus
I have great respect for the stupidity of national governments, but if it is getting that bad China will never be able to keep it secret and then being caught in a lie will make it ten times worse. I know the temptation to take the easy way out in the short term, but if they have succumbed to it then this is very scary.
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #491 on: February 05, 2020, 03:17:23 PM »
crandles wrote: " Perhaps it is better than normal if they are in special quarantined apartment with food deliveries"

As a story vox shared above pointed out, because of some scares, food deliveries have dropped dramatically.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Tammukka

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #492 on: February 05, 2020, 04:08:40 PM »
I have been wondering about some province numbers. Like
Zhejiang   Mainland China    2/5/20 1:33   895   0   63
Its 63 recoved vs 0 deaths. Sounds just too good.
Outside of mainland chine numbers are 9 recovered vs 2 deaths.

crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #493 on: February 05, 2020, 04:17:28 PM »
Is this the result of a computer hack or bug, or is this at all plausible?

Doesn't seem like plausible numbers to me:

10.6 times the confirmed cases but 80.9 times the deaths.
Nearly 16% of confirmed cases already dead when outside mainland China it is only 1%. Seems too big a difference.

4 times the suspected cases but 13.3 times the daily increase also seems a large difference suggesting recent rapid acceleration not yet reflected in confirmed cases.

More suggestive of someone trying to make it look like scary numbers .... perhaps. I don't know, just a suggestion.

crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #494 on: February 05, 2020, 04:56:45 PM »
I have been wondering about some province numbers. Like
Zhejiang   Mainland China    2/5/20 1:33   895   0   63
Its 63 recoved vs 0 deaths. Sounds just too good.
Outside of mainland chine numbers are 9 recovered vs 2 deaths.

For outside China many are feeling up to international travel so likely to be mild so likely more delay before deaths occur.

Comparing
Henan   Mainland China    2/5/20 1:13   764   2   41

Wouldn't surprise me if there had been in region of 4 to 12 deaths from the infection in each of these provinces but some or all had not been confirmed cases so death not recorded as confirmed from this cause and/or two or three deaths suppressed from data. But in the scheme of things, is this all that important? Numbers are still low or at least not that much worse than a fairly normal flu outbreak; it is the (potential) rate of growth that is (debateably) scary.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #495 on: February 05, 2020, 05:21:07 PM »
Quote
More suggestive of someone trying to make it look like scary numbers .... perhaps. I don't know, just a suggestion.
That someone I would think would not be someone in China. To go against government policy on something this important would seem to me an odd way to commit suicide.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #496 on: February 05, 2020, 05:36:01 PM »
To go against government policy on something this important would seem to me an odd way to commit suicide.

Yeah, tell that JFK and MLK.

BTW, the death sentence is a thing in the US too. Why do Americans get to denounce the death sentence in China?

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #497 on: February 05, 2020, 05:43:51 PM »
To go against government policy on something this important would seem to me an odd way to commit suicide.

Yeah, tell that JFK and MLK.

BTW, the death sentence is a thing in the US too. Why do Americans get to denounce the death sentence in China?
I'm not denouncing the death penalty, I am just pointing out that it is a thing for going against the government in China.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

GoodeWeather

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #498 on: February 05, 2020, 06:00:27 PM »
Is this the result of a computer hack or bug, or is this at all plausible?
Tencent may have accidentally leaked real data on Wuhan virus deaths
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594
Quote
Tencent briefly lists 154,023 infections and 24,589 deaths from Wuhan coronavirus
I have great respect for the stupidity of national governments, but if it is getting that bad China will never be able to keep it secret and then being caught in a lie will make it ten times worse. I know the temptation to take the easy way out in the short term, but if they have succumbed to it then this is very scary.

Better off as chalking it up to someone editing that data to create fear and panic.  The recoveries is what really screams out to me as "FAKE NEWS".

We saw a lot of people posting on social media how the virus was crossed with HIV and proven to be man made, but that was quickly debunked.

I don't even look at the numbers anymore.  What i do look at, is the broader picture of what is going on.

1)China originally tried to cover this up in the middle of December by arresting 8 doctors who investigating the very first cases.  Citing they were "spreading rumors" by mentioning SARS in their findings.

2)December 31 - China investigates 27 cases of "viral pneumonia" amid online speculation that it could be linked to a SARS flu-like virus.

3)January 22 - 571 confirmed case and 17 deaths.  China suspends all outbound travel from Wuhan.

4)January 24 - China expands "quarantine" to include 13 other cities, restricting travel to over 40 million people.  USA issues travel warning level 4 for Wuhan.

5)January 26 - USA and France announce plans to evacuate nationals out of Wuhan (multiple counties follow this lead in the following days)

6) January 31 - USA issues level 4 travel warning for all of China just the day after the WHO finally declared the virus a Public health emergency of international concern. 

Let's stop here and discuss the events that took a little over a month to develop

#1 - This alone shows that we can not trust anything China is telling us

#2 - These were the first "reported" cases.

#3 - China quarantines a population of 11 million people for only 517 cases and 17 deaths??? Drastic measures illustrating how they completely underestimated the virus's ability to spread.

#4 - China desperately trying to contain the outbreak of the virus that has already spread well beyond the point of origin.

#5 - Countries evacuating their nationals for ground zero.  This measure probably worries me the most.  Not in the sense that they may transport the virus, because it is already here.  More so from the point of view that countries are making a desperate attempt to save their citizens.

#6 - This one leads me to believe that we might see china get "sealed off" from the rest of the world (multiple border crossings with nations already closed).


With all that addressed, the actual number for deaths and cases is almost certainly higher than reported(how much higher is what remains to be seen), but i do think that this Tencent data was physically altered for the purpose of spreading fear.




Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #499 on: February 05, 2020, 06:07:20 PM »
When the host dies, the virus dies as well.
I was thinking bacterial disease.


If it spreads like the flu, with a higher mortality rate. About what kind of numbers will we be talking ? In a good year 3 % of the US population gets infected with the flu, in a bad year 10 %. If that's the case, we should start thinking about how we can help.