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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 67

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 184356 times)

blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #50 on: January 26, 2020, 03:57:23 PM »
' the apocalypse is already here ; it's just not very evenly distributed ' .. yet

This refers to the climate, not a virus.

I should change it temporarily. ;)
Unlearn things daily.

blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #51 on: January 26, 2020, 04:08:36 PM »
blumenkraft:
I’ll grant you that. It would be like America canceling Christmas, but America is America and China is China.

Thanks, Tom. :)

Next one:  'and prosperity is important to the regime's stability'

It's an authoritarian regime with a great success story to tell. Actually, most Chinese people feel pretty free and save, don't want the government to change. Even if there was a dent in growth, this wouldn't bring people to the streets or something (remember, that's rather dangerous). A dent in growth still means they grow way more than the west. Most people made it out of poverty by now. These people saw their country go from third-world to an influential international player in their lifetime. Consider them loyal.
Unlearn things daily.

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #52 on: January 26, 2020, 04:40:16 PM »
What motivates China to put major cities under quarantine? After all, the published figures of infected people are relatively low. I can think of three scenarios:

1) The situation on the ground in Wuhan is far worse than what the authorities are telling us. A full blown epidemic is imminent with an expected nine figure death toll in China alone.

2) China has calculated that locking down a few cities will be cheaper economically and politically than letting the virus spread.

3) Chinese authorities want to paint a picture of a decisive and efficient administration, always vigilant to protect the people. A decadent West couldn’t pull this off!

My guess is reality is somewhere between 2 and 3. High profile media reports such as new hospitals being built in one week suggest we are closer to 3.

bluice, on that PO forum I mentioned, they have a thread about the coronavirus https://peakoil.com/forums/wuhan-coronavirus-t77487.html . A poster (non de cyber 'Cog") there made an interesting observation. China has an export based economy, they are already suffering from the trade war and prosperity is important to the regime's stability (the last is my own observation). He points out that it is odd that China would do something like this for a virus less dangerous than the flu when it would endanger their economy. He speculates that it may have escaped from a biowar laboratory. Well, I'm not going that far since that is unlikely (not impossible). At least we only have to worry about Mother Nature and Biowar labs. In another decade or two we will have to wonder about teenage biohackers as well.

"Les dangerous than the flu" In the US 10 % of the population gets the flu every year. Less than 0,01 % of these infected people die. With this kind of virus somewhere between 5 and 15 % of the infected people die. And it's airborn like the flu. So it has the same potential of spreading. We can only pray that China manage to contain it.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #53 on: January 26, 2020, 04:44:23 PM »
Yes, Alexander555, that’s the point he and I are making.
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be cause

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #54 on: January 26, 2020, 05:03:20 PM »
' the apocalypse is already here ; it's just not very evenly distributed ' .. yet

This refers to the climate, not a virus.

I should change it temporarily. ;)


 damn .. one apocalypse getting in the way of another ..
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #55 on: January 26, 2020, 06:14:29 PM »
Well, China did not do this for SARS or the flu, so this is something worse.

EDIT: For the sake of balance:
A Note on Coronavirus: Don't Panic
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/01/a_note_on_coronavirus_dont_panic.html
Quote
I am not suggesting that we not remain alert, nor am I suggesting that we cast caution to the winds, but this present coronavirus will probably be nowhere near as deadly as many Chicken Littles are predicting.
Now, the American Thinker is probably to the Right of Rush Limbaugh so I don't know how this bias will affect the article.

EDIT 2:
On the third hand:
5 million residents left Wuhan before lockdown, mayor reveals, as 1,000 new confirmed cases expected in city
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047720/chinese-premier-li-keqiang-head-coronavirus-crisis-team-outbreak
Quote
About 5 million residents left Wuhan before the lockdown because of the deadly coronavirus epidemic and the Spring Festival holiday, mayor Zhou Xianwang revealed on Sunday, as health officials ­warned the virus’ ­ability to spread was ­getting ­stronger.
« Last Edit: January 26, 2020, 08:15:48 PM by Tom_Mazanec »
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #56 on: January 26, 2020, 08:23:22 PM »
I'm reposting these from the the Pathogen thread for reference ... 

---------------------------------------

Exercise Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tqa7NHq73xM&feature=youtu.be&t=2675 (... definitely watch this)

U.S. Government Mock Pandemic Exercise Killed 150 Million People. Next Time It Might Not Be a Drill.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/05/30/this-mock-pandemic-killed-150-million-people-next-time-it-might-not-be-a-drill/



... This past May, the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (CHS) led an exercise involving current and former high-ranking U.S. government officials on how the country would respond to an international outbreak of an engineered pathogen. In this fictional scenario, a terrorist group constructed a virus that was both deadly and highly contagious. More than a year into the made-up pandemic, the worldwide death toll was soaring past 150 million, the Dow Jones had fallen by 90 percent, and there was a mass exodus from cities amid famine and unrest.

... The advisers were asked to give recommendations to a fictional president (who remained offstage). They received briefings and news reports as the exercise progressed. Their consensus advice was repeatedly ignored and overridden by the president for short-term political reasons.

The fictional outbreak kept getting worse.... “We didn’t want to have a Disney ending,” Inglesby said. “We wanted to have a plausible scenario. We did know it would be jarring.”

Quote
... The Johns Hopkins pandemic exercise, as some of the audience members noted, took place one week after the top White House official responsible for leading the U.S. response in the event of a deadly pandemic left the administration and the global health security team he oversaw was disbanded under a reorganization by national security adviser John Bolton.

Exercise: http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/events/2018_clade_x_exercise/clade-x-resources

Definitely check out the scenario slides - It gives one pause... http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/events/2018_clade_x_exercise/pdfs/Clade-X-exercise-presentation-slides.pdf

RealTime Outbreak Map: http://outbreaks.globalincidentmap.com/

---------------------------------------

Map Tracks Coronavirus Outbreak in Near Real-Time
https://hub.jhu.edu/2020/01/23/coronavirus-outbreak-mapping-tool-649-em1-art1-dtd-health/


https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

The Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering has built and is regularly updating an online dashboard for tracking the worldwide spread of the coronavirus outbreak that began in the Chinese city of Wuhan.

The site displays statistics about deaths and confirmed cases of coronavirus, or 2019-nCoV, across a worldwide map. It also allows visitors to download the data for free.

"We built this dashboard because we think it is important for the public to have an understanding of the outbreak situation as it unfolds with transparent data sources," Gardner said. "For the research community, this data will become more valuable as we continue to collect it over time."

Making the data available for download is "critical" for researchers, she added.

... The website provides a link to a downloadable Google Sheet that contains information on confirmed and suspected cases in more than 30 Chinese locations as well as for the nations of Japan, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, Colombia, Brazil, Australia, Mexico, and the United States. One case has been confirmed in Washington state.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

---------------------------------------

Pandemic, Netflix Series About Doctors, Scientists Fighting Viral Disease Outbreaks, Carries a Dire Warning
https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/entertainment/article/3047604/pandemic-netflix-series-about-doctors-scientists-fighting



-----------------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #57 on: January 26, 2020, 08:47:04 PM »
Coronavirus Contagious Even in Incubation Stage, China’s Health Authority Says
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047701/coronavirus-contagious-even-incubation-stage-chinas-health

  • National Health Commission says understanding of infection remains limited, but its ability to spread is getting stronger
  • More than 1,300 extra doctors and nurses have been deployed to Hubei to help battle outbreak, with 1,000 more to follow soon
... “There are signs showing the virus is becoming more transmissible. These walking ‘contagious agents’ [hidden carriers] make controlling the outbreak a lot more difficult.”

The authorities had also not ruled out the possibility of the virus mutating in the future, he said, which meant it could spread to different age groups.

To date, most of the people infected are in the 40-60 age range, health officials said earlier.

----------------------------

5 Million Residents Left Wuhan Before Lockdown, Mayor Reveals, as 1,000 New Confirmed Cases Expected in City
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047720/chinese-premier-li-keqiang-head-coronavirus-crisis-team-outbreak

... Li Bin, deputy minister of the NHC said the authorities that the severe measures they had taken to control the spread of the virus – such as issuing travel bans and locking down cities – would at least delay the peak and “buy time to combat the next stage of the outbreak”.

... As the pressure has mounted on Wuhan’s hospitals, the medical system has moved ever closer to collapse.

Many people who developed feverish symptoms were turned away by hospitals earlier in the week because there were not enough beds, local residents said earlier.

Medical practitioners are also running seriously short of protective kits and are being forced to recycle goggles and masks. Test kits have been mostly unavailable.

Ma said 2,400 hospital beds had been added in Wuhan, and the government was planning to add 5,000 more over the next three days.

Wang Jiangping, China’s vice-minister of industry and information technology, said China had the capacity to produce a maximum of 30,000 protective outfits per day, but that was less than a third of the 100,000 needed in Hubei each day.

And during the Lunar New Year holiday, manufacturing capacity was only about 40 per cent of normal, he said.

The government was working to acquire the 50,000 protective contamination suits China produces for export every day to send to Hubei, he said. (Too bad, the U.S. was expecting those -- guess someone is going to have a shortage soon)

Ma said that Beijing was aware there was a shortage of medical supplies and that the relevant authorities were seeking to source them in “every possible way”.
Wang Jiangping, vice-minister for industry and information technology, said at the press conference that China was pursuing various channels, both at home and overseas, to source the required supplies.

--------------------------------------

The NHC also issued a nationwide plan on containing the epidemic by locking down certain neighbourhood communities in both urban and rural areas.

In the case of a neighbourhood community or village having two confirmed cases, it could be declared an epidemic zone and sealed off, it said.


------------------------------

... “Online rumors say that an anti-Aids drug has been used and proved to be effective in treating the coronavirus,” according to a statement by Beijing Municipal Health Commission. “The National Health Commission has recommended the rumored names to treat the coronavirus before and we have Lopinavir/Ritonavir in stock in Beijing,”

New research on 41 Wuhan coronavirus cases in China published in Friday’s edition of The Lancet medical journal noted “substantial clinical benefit” from use of the medication in treatment of Sars, a coronavirus epidemic that swept through China in 2002 and 2003.

However, the authors – experts from numerous medical research institutes in mainland China – also said no such treatment method had been proven.

“No antiviral treatment for coronavirus infection has been proven to be effective,” according to the article published in The Lancet. “In a historical control study, the combination of lopinavir and ritonavir among SARS-CoV patients was associated with substantial clinical benefit (fewer adverse clinical outcomes).”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

FrostKing70

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #58 on: January 26, 2020, 08:47:28 PM »
The recent announcement that people are contagious prior to showing symptoms is very troubling to me.   I haven't found information in incubation duration prior to becoming symptomatic yet...

etienne

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #59 on: January 26, 2020, 09:07:05 PM »
 My wife read between 1 and 14 days. But things seem to be evolving.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #60 on: January 26, 2020, 09:07:48 PM »
The recent announcement that people are contagious prior to showing symptoms is very troubling to me.   I haven't found information in incubation duration prior to becoming symptomatic yet...

Open Access: Jasper Fuk-Woo Chan, et.al. A familial cluster of pneumonia associated with the 2019 novel coronavirus indicating person-to-person transmission: a study of a family cluster
https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620301549.pdf

... As shown in this study, it is still crucial to isolate patients and trace and quarantine contacts as early as possible because asymptomatic infection appears possible (as shown in one of our patients)

-----------------

... Longtime adviser to the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention called Dr. Ma’s remarks a “game changer” and said the information called into question the United States’ strategy for containing the virus. Officials are set to repatriate Americans from the center of the outbreak.

“When I heard this, I thought, ‘Oh dear, this is worse than we anticipated,’” Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, told CNN. “It means the infection is much more contagious than we originally thought.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/26/world/china-coronavirus.html

--------------------------------

Just a personal observation ...

Whether or not they are effective ...

Went to CVS, Walgreens, and Rite-Aid (U.S. National Pharmacies) and noticed that ALL the SURGICAL MASKS were SOLD OUT/ or on Back-Order.

Home-Depot/Lowes has particulate masks N95/goggles/disposable gloves that serve the same purpose in the Safety Supply Section of the Power Tools Dept.

---------------------------

CDC Recommendations: ... recommended personal protective equipment or PPE (e.g., gowns, gloves, NIOSH-certified disposable N95 respirator, eye protection)
« Last Edit: January 26, 2020, 09:24:06 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #61 on: January 26, 2020, 09:22:50 PM »
World Health Organization Chief to Meet Chinese Officials in Beijing as Coronavirus Deaths Rise
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/26/world-health-organization-chief-to-meet-chinese-officials-in-beijing-as-coronavirus-deaths-rise.html

... The WHO said it needs more data before declaring the virus, which is spreading through human-to-human contact, a global health emergency. “Make no mistake: This is an emergency in China,” Ghebreyesus said on Thursday. “But it has not yet become a global health emergency. It may yet become one.”

----------------------------

Passenger Removed after Coronavirus Scare on Flight from Las Vegas to Baltimore
https://www.8newsnow.com/news/local-news/passenger-on-flight-from-las-vegas-to-baltimore-treated-for-flu-like-symptoms/

... The sick passenger and his wife were taken off the plane first, but other passengers were held on the plane while doctors talked on the intercom.

Rowe saw the coronavirus in the news, but the in-flight situation got her thinking.

"I really never thought about it until today."
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

SteveMDFP

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #62 on: January 26, 2020, 09:25:00 PM »

The only opportunity to stop this from playing out is to aggressively stop it now. Choosing to stick ones head in the sand because the absolute numbers are small now, assures that a catastrophic pandemic happens.


Quite right.  Respiratory viruses tend to be highly contagious, and modern practices have done little to alter that reality.

Even these early numbers suggest exponential growth.  This is not surprising, this is what epidemics do when transmission cannot be controlled.

With an incubation period of up to 14 days, we can be confident that the current spread of the virus is far wider than the case numbers currently suggest.

Even educated people often underestimate the implications of exponential growth.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #63 on: January 26, 2020, 09:40:43 PM »
Via Svein Tveitdal on Twitter:

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #64 on: January 26, 2020, 10:05:40 PM »
Fifth US Case of Coronavirus Confirmed as China Warns People Can Spread the Virus Before They Feel Ill
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/26/us/coronavirus-orange-county/index.html

Update: A fifth US case of coronavirus has been confirmed, in Arizona, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Sunday.

Health officials confirmed two cases of coronavirus in Southern California -- bringing the total to four cases in the United States -- as a top Chinese health official delivered some worrisome news about efforts to contain the fast-moving virus.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notified Orange County health officials Saturday that a potential case of coronavirus tested positive, while Los Angeles County Department of Public Health announced Sunday that the CDC had confirmed another case in a person who had "presented themselves for care" after falling ill.

In addition to California, cases have been reported in Illinois and Washington state. The Illinois woman had not been sick while traveling from Wuhan to the US on January 13, said Dr. Jennifer Layden, an epidemiologist with the Illinois Department of Health, on Friday.

----------------------------

Right now the rate-limiting step to identify this virus is the lack of a specific test kit in sufficient quantity to identify it.

Two weeks ago the primers for the PCR test for this virus did not exist. Without primers there is no test.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/rt-pcr-panel-primer-probes.pdf
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/rt-pcr-panel-for-detection-instructions.pdf

Right now you can count the number of labs that test for this virus on one hand. Until production of the primers gears up the number testing will remain glacial. Actual infected numbers are probably an order of magnitude (or two) higher.

... The CDC is preparing test kits to be sent to state health departments so that they can test for the virus instead of having to send samples to the C.D.C. for testing, but it will be a few more weeks before the kits are ready, Dr. Messonnier said.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2020, 04:31:05 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #65 on: January 27, 2020, 12:38:04 AM »
Good news and bad.

The R0 now looks to average about 2.5 rather than 4. If true, this will slow the exponential explosion of cases from extremely terrifying to terrifying. It is important to remember though that all of these parameters are distributions not fixed numbers. We do not yet know for this virus whether there are “superspreaders” - people who remain essentially symptomless while spreading disease to large numbers of people.

The incubation or latency period is being reported as 1-14 days with a likely average of 10 days before   symptoms are apparent. Transmission has occurred in as little as 5 days, perhaps less. This makes containment and detection vastly harder. It also dramatically increases the likelihood of the outbreak becoming global. The use of temperature (fever) detection as an indicator of potential disease is made much less viable for control.

The case fatality rate and age distributions remain highly uncertain. 10% fatality remains likely. Whereas the age distribution for severe effects looked to be heavily weighted toward those over 55, that is now in doubt. Fatality gender remains highly skewed toward males at 70%. That may still be an artifact of underlying disease history, reporting, treatment bias, small sample size errors or other factors. It may not be indicative of real factors.

I have as yet seen no information or evidence regarding genetics and vulnerability. I.e. are some populations more vulnerable than others. Such information won’t be available unless and until the virus breaks out of the Chinese population.

It is important as we move forward to remember that all of the various parameters inevitably suffer from a variety of biases. These are all inadvertent. Parameter estimates will change. Second, all of these parameters are the midpoints or modes of distributions. Those distributions themselves may be very important. Do not take single point values as telling everything important. Third, a lot of this data remains temporally uncorrelated. This can have dramatic impacts on parameter estimates.

There are now five confirmed cases in the US. Two others appear likely. So far, contact tracing and control remains viable. With a long latency to symptoms that may not continue to hold true for small infection pools (I.e. outside of China). Inside China, the virus is now pandemic. 

Sam

SteveMDFP

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #66 on: January 27, 2020, 12:46:54 AM »
...
There are now five confirmed cases in the US. Two others appear likely. So far, contact tracing and control remains viable. With a long latency to symptoms that may not continue to hold true for small infection pools (I.e. outside of China). Inside China, the virus is now pandemic. 

Sam

Thanks for the thorough update.  We might hope that the severity of this epidemic in Wuhan might relate to the poor air quality.  Less irritated respiratory tracts might show better resilience.

If this is true, this might relate to the peculiar gender ratio in hospitalized cases.  I imagine tobacco smoking is more common in males than females.

Time will tell.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #67 on: January 27, 2020, 01:28:16 AM »
According to the Grauniad this evening (UTC):

Coronavirus: 100,000 may already be infected, experts warn

Quote
About 100,000 people could be infected with the new coronavirus around the world, experts have warned, as the UK government faced calls to reassure people that the NHS is ready to deal with any British cases within days.

Prof Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College, said his “best guess” was that there were 100,000 affected by the virus even though there are only 2,000 confirmed cases so far, mostly in the city of Wuhan in China where the virus first appeared.

“Sooner or later we will get a case,” he said. “There are very large numbers of Chinese tourists across Europe right now. Unless the Chinese manage to control this, and I’m sceptical about whether that is possible, we will get cases here.”

Although no one has yet tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, Labour called on the government to reassure the public that the NHS could cope with an outbreak when it is already struggling with the winter flu season.

Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health secretary, said: “The NHS is currently under immense strain this winter with staff already working flat out and hospitals overcrowded. We need urgent reassurance from ministers they have a plan to ensure we have capacity in place to deal with coronavirus should we need to.”

Priti Patel, the home secretary, insisted on Sunday that the government was taking “all precautions”, despite criticism it had been slow off the mark to find and give information to the thousands of people in Britain who had flown back from Wuhan in recent weeks.

Prof Martin Dove, a British academic, said no one from the UK government had tried to contact him regarding the coronavirus outbreak despite recently returning home from working in Wuhan.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Sigmetnow

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #68 on: January 27, 2020, 01:39:15 AM »
British Medical Journal. Published 24 January 2020.
Quote
Is this an international emergency?
WHO met on 22-23 January to determine whether the situation should be deemed a public health emergency of international concern but decided against it. However, the committee will reconvene “in a matter of days to examine the situation further.” Many believe it’s only a matter of time that an emergency is declared.
https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/368/bmj.m308.full.pdf
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #69 on: January 27, 2020, 01:46:35 AM »
The R0 now looks to average about 2.5 rather than 4...

Not sure if this paper is more recent than your source, but:

The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10) associated with 0-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. With rising report rate, the mean R0 is likely to be below 5 but above 3.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronaviru
« Reply #70 on: January 27, 2020, 02:48:30 AM »
The R0 now looks to average about 2.5 rather than 4...

Not sure if this paper is more recent than your source, but:

The early outbreak data largely follows the exponential growth. We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10) associated with 0-fold to 2-fold increase in the reporting rate. With rising report rate, the mean R0 is likely to be below 5 but above 3.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1

It’s really hard to tell. The data sets that each of the half dozen or more individual researchers and groups are using are not coincident. The time frames for each also vary and are not necessarily reflected by the date their studies are published.

A better analysis would likely look at that in two ways -

1) as a meta analysis that pools the data, while being careful to avoid double and triple counting. That might result in an R0 that is more representative of the average. And that might be about in the mid 3’s with a range of variation and a range of uncertainty.

2) as a timeline analysis that attempts to determine if the R0 is a) changing based on conditions, or whether it is changing because of small number randomness effects, or c) something else.

There are other confounders to consider as well.

Until the data is representative of a larger population sample, the numbers are likely to change. And though that seems confusing, the takeaway remains that this is a highly contagious rapidly spreading disease.

It’s also important to bear in mind that the tests for this virus are brand new and in limited supply. There is also a strong bias to not count things as nCoV and instead consider them as seasonal flu unless and until proven otherwise. This may strongly bias the counts and parameters in very bad ways.

More even than all of this, this is a chaotic situation, and chaotic situations drive uncertainty to be larger. That is not a reason to presume that the lack of confirmed data means things are better. Doing so could be dangerous and result in tragedy.

Sam
« Last Edit: January 27, 2020, 03:49:18 AM by Sam »

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #71 on: January 27, 2020, 03:29:09 AM »
Wow. Thanks for all the updates. Now, where did I put that box of N95 masks?
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #72 on: January 27, 2020, 03:54:16 AM »
China coronavirus: demand for face masks surges amid short supply in Hong Kong as government denies accusation it stockpiled safety gear for internal use
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3047721/china-coronavirus-demand-face-masks-surges-amid

The demand for masks has continued to surge in Hong Kong as three more cases of the Wuhan coronavirus were confirmed, causing prices of the safety gear to soar and forcing the government to deny accusations it had stockpiled them for internal use.

Chief Secretary Matthew Cheung Kin-chung on Sunday said that the Department of Health and the Hospital Authority had enough supplies of the protective coverings to cope with contingencies for three months.

But some local media platforms suggested the government had amassed a stockpile of up to 100 million masks, leading to its shortage in the market.

The government, however, denied the allegation, stating that the logistics department, which supplied surgical masks to various other agencies, had obtained in 2019 a monthly supply of an average of 1.1 million masks made by Hong Kong’s prison inmates and gave out “almost the same” quantity.

... a sudden surge in the demand for masks has left Hongkongers scrambling for the safety gear, with pharmacies reporting no supply. Some shops on Sunday afternoon charged as much as HK$230 (US$29.59) for a box of 50 surgical masks, which normally costs HK$61.32 on Amazon.

When the Post visited about 10 pharmacies in Wan Chai and Causeway Bay areas on Sunday evening, it found half of the shops closed for the Lunar New Year, while others had run out of stock.

“We’ve placed orders last week, but masks are yet to be delivered,” a salesman at Sincere Pharmacy in Wan Chai said.

At least two Watsons stores – one of Asia’s largest health care chains – also had no masks in stock. “We have not had any masks since last Friday,” Ben, a salesperson at a Watsons store on Hennessy Road in Wan Chai, said. He could not say whether the store was expected to receive new stock soon.

City resident Dorothy Chung Sheung-po said she found shops selling boxes of 50 surgical masks for as much as HK$500 (US$64.33).

https://www.scmp.com/topics/china-coronavirus-outbreak.

-----------------------------

Containing new coronavirus may not be feasible, experts say, as they warn of possible sustained global spread
https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/26/containing-new-coronavirus-may-not-be-feasible-experts-say/

... “Despite the enormous and admirable efforts in China and around the world, we need to plan for the possibility containment of this epidemic isn’t possible,” said Neil Ferguson, an infectious diseases epidemiology at Imperial College London who has issued a series of modeling studies on the outbreak.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

... Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the agency knows transmission of the virus within the United States may be on the horizon.

“We’re leaning far forward. And we have been every step of the way with an aggressive stance to everything we can do in the U.S.,” she told STAT. “And yet those of us who have been around long enough know that everything we do might not be enough to stop this from spreading in the U.S.”

... Dr. Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins School of Public Health, urged countries to start planning to deal with global spread of the new virus. Such plans need to include far more aggressive efforts to develop a vaccine than have already been announced, he suggested.

“I’m not making a prediction that it’s going to happen,” Inglesby said, though he noted the mathematical modeling, the statements from Chinese authorities, and the sharply rising infection numbers make a case for this possible outcome. “I think just based on those pieces of limited information, it’s important for us to begin some planning around the possibility that this won’t be contained.”
« Last Edit: January 27, 2020, 04:08:23 AM by vox_mundi »
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Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #73 on: January 27, 2020, 05:05:31 AM »
Surgical masks? It is my understanding that surgical masks are there mostly to protect the patient and provide a minimum form of protection to the surgeons. A properly used surgical mask helps protect others and offers minimum protection to the wearer. If everyone wears it, then no one is contagious. Do it for long enough and the epidemic is contained.

I truly hope the government is not hoarding these masks.

Although a surgical mask is light, cheap and offers some protection, a properly fitted N95 is the way to go for personal safety. Make sure you shave before you wear it. Make sure your hair doesn't get caught in the mask and the strap is secure. And be ready to be hot and uncomfortable at room temp.

But nothing beats hand washing for personal and group safety. Wash your hands often.

Surgical gloves are a good idea too if caring for a sick loved one.

Sunlight may be the best disinfectant when it comes to corruption, but bleach is the disinfectant I trust. Buy bleach of the highest purity you can find, for me it is the Clorox brand. Make sure it doesn't have fragrances or anything else added to it. If you have good bleach a dilution of 10 parts bleach and 90 parts water left to air dry for 30 seconds will do the trick for pretty much anything that can harm you. If things get bad clean with bleach. Else stay away from it because it is overkill 99.999% of the time.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #74 on: January 27, 2020, 09:15:36 AM »
Some Practical Questions about the Coronavirus Epidemic
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/01/some-practical-questions-about.html
Quote
Restrictions that allow a significant number of people to move about, either with official approval or unsanctioned "black market" activity, cannot stop the spread of contagious diseases.
Like everyone else, I've been reading the mainstream media reports on the Coronavirus epidemic. I haven't found any information about the practicalities that immediately occur to me
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #75 on: January 27, 2020, 09:48:30 AM »
It's quite possible that this link might have been posted further up this thread but this John's Hopkins sourced, regularly updated presentation seems to be giving an accurate picture of the global situation.

I have a significant interest as my son and his family (three granddaughters) are in Singapore.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #76 on: January 27, 2020, 10:09:34 AM »
It's quite possible that this link might have been posted further up this thread but this John's Hopkins sourced, regularly updated presentation seems to be giving an accurate picture of the global situation.

I have a significant interest as my son and his family (three granddaughters) are in Singapore.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

And the source data - slightly more up to date, but in Chinese.

https://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia?from=timeline&isappinstalled=0

Human Habitat Index

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #77 on: January 27, 2020, 10:14:30 AM »
Just to put things in perspective -

"CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 15 million flu illnesses, 140,000 hospitalizations and 8,200 deaths from flu."

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #78 on: January 27, 2020, 10:20:46 AM »
This one appears to be a fact check site >> https://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia_rumors
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #79 on: January 27, 2020, 11:51:01 AM »
The Guardian has another constantly updated blog online.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jan/27/coronavirus-china-death-toll-climbs-to-80-with-more-than-2700-cases-live-updates


The 14 days of asymptomatic contagion sources is a game changer in my eyes.
For 2 weeks an infected person attends school, goes to work, takes vacations and interacts with friends and family with no knowledge that he's a danger to anyone. Those he infected have have an additional 2 weeks before they develop symptoms, 2 weeks in which to infect the next generation of carriers.


Is our data 2 weeks behind the curve, or further?


We've difficulties getting enough kits to diagnose those exhibiting symptoms. How will those in their first two weeks of asymptomatic infection be identified and isolated?


Western Nations seem determined to break the quarantine WRT their own nationals. That seems a foolish/ungrateful response to the rather heroic Chinese attempt to internalize the problem, or at the least to provide some time for the rest of the world to prepare.


Stay home & Stay healthy
Terry

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #80 on: January 27, 2020, 02:44:33 PM »
Terry

Will China become a great big 21st century Eyam and be respected for its actions?

https://schoolhistory.co.uk/notes/eyam-and-the-great-plague/

Sigmetnow

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #81 on: January 27, 2020, 03:12:20 PM »
British professional medical journal, The Lancet

Quote
Alex Psirides (@psirides) 1/26/20, 10:45 PM
The Lancet have created a hub page for all things coronavirus here:
https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

https://twitter.com/psirides/status/1221640346146234370

- It includes this editorial which is #FOAMEd:
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30186-0.pdf
[See next post.]

- And this paper (also open access):
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5.pdf on 41 patients confirmed with 2019-nCoV infection

- Of n=41, 29% had ARDS, 32% admitted to ICU, 15% mortality. n=2 received ventilation & ECMO. pic.twitter.com/oU4qAY18BP
- The @WHO have published 'interim guidance' clinical Mx guidelines here:  https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/clinical-management-of-novel-cov.pdf?sfvrsn=bc7da517_2&download=true
which essentially tell you how to manage sepsis (including not using starch or gelatins)
- (there is no mention of Vitamin C either)
- But there is an interesting epidemiological infographic:
- with a timeline of median symptom onset
Images below.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #82 on: January 27, 2020, 03:16:02 PM »
Editorial from the British professional medical journal, The Lancet

Published January 24, 2030
Emerging understandings of 2019-nCoV

“There is an emergency in China, but it has not yet become a global health emergency...WHO is following this outbreak every minute of every day”, said Dr Tedros Ghebreyesus, Director-General of WHO, on Jan 23. A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak is emerging, but it is not yet a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). As we went to press, more than 500 cases have been confirmed in China, as well as in Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and the US. The virus can cause a severe respiratory illness, like SARS and MERS, and human-to-human transmission has been confirmed. These characteristics are driving China’s urgent public health actions, as well as international concern. But much remains unknown. The pieces of the puzzle that is 2019-nCoV are only now beginning to come together.

Today, we publish the first clinical data from individuals confirmed to be infected with 2019-nCoV from Wuhan, China. Chaolin Huang and colleagues provide comprehensive findings for the first 41 laboratory- confirmed cases. 27 of these 41 cases had direct exposure to the Wuhan seafood market that is thought to be the initial site of infection from an animal source. All had viral pneumonia. The severity of illness is concerning: almost a third of patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome requiring intensive care; six patients died; five had acute cardiac injury; and four required ventilation.

Separately, Jasper Fuk-Woo Chan and colleagues report clinical and microbiological data from a family of six people who had travelled to Wuhan and later presented with pneumonia to Shenzhen Hospital in Guangdong province. Five were identified as infected with 2019-nCoV. Notably, none had been to the Wuhan market, but two had visited a Wuhan hospital. The authors suggest these findings con rm human-to- human transmission. Together, these Articles provide an important initial picture of the clinical spectrum and transmission of this new disease.

In an accompanying Comment, Chen Wang, George Gao, and colleagues describe the early sharing of clinical data from the outbreak and emphasise the urgent need for more information about pathogenesis and viral transmission, as well as the pressing need to develop best supportive care and a vaccine. They also caution against overstating the mortality risk, as early reported case- fatality rates may be high due to bias towards detecting severe cases. As David Heymann reflects in another accompanying Comment, publication of these Articles provides peer-reviewed information urgently needed to refine the risk assessment and response, which are happening in real time.

China has quickly isolated and sequenced the virus and shared these data internationally. The lessons from the SARS epidemic—where China was insufficiently prepared to implement infection control practices—have been successfully learned. By most accounts, Chinese authorities are meeting international standards and isolating suspected cases and contacts, developing diagnostic and treatment procedures, and implementing public education campaigns. Dr Tedros has praised China for its transparency, data sharing, and quick response. Likewise, WHO has reacted fast and diligently. Despite massive attention and conjecture about the level of threat posed by 2019-nCoV, and whether WHO should declare a PHEIC, the agency’s emergency committee has not bowed to pressure to take such a decision until necessary. We commend WHO for its resilience.

There are still many gaps in our understanding. The early experiences of these patients and the response to their symptoms before cases were reported remain undocumented. The exposure and possible infection of health workers remain extremely worrying. We will not know for some time the consequences of the quarantine imposed in Wuhan on Jan 23, 2020. Chinese public health authorities are under enormous pressure to make difficult decisions with an incomplete, and rapidly changing, understanding of the epidemic. The shutdowns may seem a drastic step—whether they represent an effective control measure deserves careful investigation and much will likely depend on maintaining trust between authorities and the local population. News media that worsen fears by reporting a “killer virus“ only harm efforts to implement a successful and safe infection control strategy.

Openness and sharing of data are paramount. There are enormous demands for rapid access to information about this new virus, the patients and communities affected, and the response. But equally crucial is the need to ensure that those data are reliable, accurate, and independently scrutinised. As for all public health emergencies, we will be making all related Lancet content fully and freely available.

- The Lancet”

https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lancet/PIIS0140-6736(20)30186-0.pdf
There are additional links at this link.
« Last Edit: January 27, 2020, 03:21:04 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #83 on: January 27, 2020, 03:23:10 PM »
The world economy is really in a terrible shape: unemployment has not been this low in the developed world since the 70s (!!!) We have not had so many people having a job for even longer (because of record high female work-participation)...

The labor force participation rate has been declining steadily in the U.S. since the recession in 2001 and this is not because people don't want to work. We are now at a participation rate we have not seen since the late 70's.

Meanwhile, the share of income for the bottom 4 quintiles in the U.S. has been steadily declining as well. The stats don't support your statement. Glad you have a good job though.

TerryM

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #84 on: January 27, 2020, 03:27:14 PM »
Terry

Will China become a great big 21st century Eyam and be respected for its actions?

https://schoolhistory.co.uk/notes/eyam-and-the-great-plague/
I strongly doubt that China, or her leaders, will receive any plaudits for their actions. I do believe that they're due, but not that they'll be offered.


Thanks for the link to Eyam's story! Were they viewed as heroes or fools by their peers?
Terry

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #85 on: January 27, 2020, 04:31:55 PM »
The world economy is really in a terrible shape: unemployment has not been this low in the developed world since the 70s (!!!) We have not had so many people having a job for even longer (because of record high female work-participation)...

El Cid, are you only interested in some of the many economic markers?

For example, you cite unemployment rates. Are you aware that some people take 2 or more of those spots in these statistics?

What about those people who can't afford healthcare? Or those who can't manage any financial emergency? Are they on your mind when you say the economy is so great?

 
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #86 on: January 27, 2020, 05:23:41 PM »
To get into the mood:
An interesting and nice Film:
"Outbreak", a 1995 medical disaster film with starcast of Rene Russo, Morgan Freeman, Dustin Hofman, Cuba Gooding, Kevin Spacey, Donald Sutherland and Patrick Dempsey.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outbreak_(film)
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Prisons in your head!

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #87 on: January 27, 2020, 05:38:44 PM »
nanning:
If you don't have time, these 2 min videos will get you in the mood:



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silkman

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #88 on: January 27, 2020, 06:06:14 PM »
Terry

Thanks for the link to Eyam's story! Were they viewed as heroes or fools by their peers?
Terry

Definitely seen as heroes by their neighbours in Derbyshire and Sheffield and by subsequent generations. Their heroics are still celebrated today. I think it was a uniquely selfless act in the history of the plague in England.

TerryM

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #89 on: January 27, 2020, 07:20:26 PM »
That's good to hear Silkman, It's a story I'd never been told.
................


The UK is now taking the 14 day incubation period seriously.

“From today, we are therefore asking anyone in the UK who has returned from Wuhan in the last 14 days to self-isolate. Stay indoors and avoid contact with other people - and to contact NHS 111."

Note that they aren't limiting the instructions to those experiencing symptoms.

I've read that a vaccine won't be available for at least a year - and that's if it doesn't mutate.

I once wandered about in Nevada & So. California for ~18 months with a chemically castrated immune system. Mine had become distracted and was eating the myelin sheath from my nerves and brain.
I avoided door knobs, push buttons and handrails, stopped shaking hands or hugging, avoided large crowds and left the premises when I heard the 1st cough or sniffle. My wife mirrored my actions. Probably good luck as much as anything, but we never had as much as a runny nose until well after my immune system had been replaced through IVIG treatments.

We're about to repeat those rather odd affectations in hopes that this thing passes us by, and we'll be donning masks in public now to be on the safe side.

I'd rather be seen as the strange bird that lives upstairs, than remembered as the friendly chap that died in the pandemic.

Masks are cheap here and altering your habits doesn't cost a nickel.
If you've a job that requires contract with lots of people, call in sick - or take a vacation.
Terry

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #90 on: January 27, 2020, 08:02:09 PM »
What was the R0 with the SARS outbreak in 2002 ?

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #91 on: January 27, 2020, 08:05:56 PM »
If you've a job that requires contract with lots of people, call in sick - or take a vacation.

A bit over the top for the people that work in places with no or highly unlikely contact with infected people.

And just strategy wise...Lets say you can call in sick or take that vacation how much time do you have? You might be right back on the job in the worst time.   
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Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #92 on: January 27, 2020, 08:40:11 PM »
What was the R0 with the SARS outbreak in 2002 ?

About 2.8 with a CFR of 10%
2019-nCoV appears to have an R0 between 2.6 and 5.7 and a CFR that may be the same or slightly higher than SARS.

https://informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/the-microbescope-infectious-diseases-in-context/

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #93 on: January 27, 2020, 08:50:01 PM »

We estimated that the mean R0 ranges from 3.30 (95%CI: 2.73-3.96) to 5.47 (95%CI: 4.16-7.10)

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #94 on: January 27, 2020, 09:05:48 PM »
It seems like this virus is spreading faster than SARS. They are talking about 800 infected people from mid november until mid February. That's like 3 months. Now the official number is almost 3000 in less than a month. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_SARS_outbreak

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #95 on: January 27, 2020, 10:28:02 PM »
It seems like this virus is spreading faster than SARS. They are talking about 800 infected people from mid november until mid February. That's like 3 months. Now the official number is almost 3000 in less than a month. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_SARS_outbreak

16 Nov 2002 is for first case. 31 Dec 2019 is, I think, when the virus was identified. This undoubtedly took time to realize there was an outbreak of something and prioritize identification. So with 3 months and less than a month, I don't think you are identifying the time periods correctly.

Quote
In late February 2003, Italian doctor Carlo Urbani was called into The French Hospital of Hanoi to look at Johnny Chen, an American businessman who had fallen ill with what doctors thought was a bad case of influenza. Urbani realized that Chen's ailment was probably a new and highly contagious disease. He immediately notified the WHO.

The CDC and Canada's National Microbiology Laboratory identified the SARS genome in April 2003.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_acute_respiratory_syndrome

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #96 on: January 27, 2020, 10:35:28 PM »
See Chart B toward the end of the report for a temporal display of the estimated R0.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.25.919787v1

crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #97 on: January 27, 2020, 10:51:22 PM »
Not sure if this is more recent than other research linked in this thread

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/26/coronavirus-could-infect-100000-globally-experts-warn

Quote
Ferguson, whose team have been modelling the disease for the World Health Organization, said they estimated the virus had a reproductive rate of 2.5-3, meaning that each person infected would potentially transmit it to up to three others.

“My best guess now is perhaps 100,000 cases right now,” he said, although it could be between 30,000 and 200,000. “Almost certainly many tens of thousands of people are infected.”

Most of the cases that have been exported to other countries from China have been mild, he said. That could mean mild cases of disease spread more easily than severe, life-threatening cases, which sounds like good news. But on the other hand, it means it is possible there will be a reservoir of mild disease in the country that goes unnoticed and can spread until it affects somebody vulnerable because of underlying poor health, who becomes seriously ill.

“People looking for people with a travel history to China are not necessarily looking in their local population,” he said.

There is a lot still unknown, he explained. “We don’t have reports as yet as to the extent to which children are becoming infected, probably because of the bias towards severe cases.”

Unlike Sars, which made everyone who contracted the virus severely ill, the new virus appears to be able to slip under the radar, he said. Firstly, there are the many mild carriers, who will infect other people without necessarily being recognised. Secondly, there are reports from China of people who have infected others before they have experienced any symptoms.

Ferguson said it was possible this is not quite as it appears. It may be that the authorities have not actually identified the index case – the person who infected a group of people – making it look as though they picked up the virus from someone who had no symptoms.

But although only people with symptoms of illness spread Sars, scientists point to other diseases, such as influenza and some colds, that can be passed on by those who appear well. These viruses “are carried into the air during normal breathing and talking by the infected person”, said Prof Wendy Barclay of the department of infectious disease at Imperial College London.

“It would not be too surprising if the new coronavirus also does this. If this does prove to be the case then controlling the spread does become more of a challenge, and measures like airport screening are unlikely to stem the virus effectively.”

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #98 on: January 27, 2020, 11:37:13 PM »
Draconian quarantine efforts may bring the R0 to < 2; porous borders (Africa), limited medical intervention, large gatherings - hajj (Africa, India, Middle East) might point to R0 > 5

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China Coronavirus: Patients are Infecting Two or Three Other People, Research Estimates
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3047842/china-coronavirus-patients-are-infecting-two-or-three-other

Those infected with the Wuhan coronavirus are passing it on to two to three people on average, but that number could change quickly depending on factors including the success of China’s efforts to contain the outbreak through quarantines and increased public awareness.

Transmission rates are considered a moving target because of gaps in information, and the number can change quickly based on quarantines and public awareness

‘Whether transmission continues at the same rate critically depends on the effectiveness of the intense control effort now underway in Wuhan and across China’

... One study led by British infectious disease specialist Neil Ferguson put the basic reproduction number, known as the R0 (R naught), for the virus at 2.6.

A second British study, by researchers at Lancaster University, put the figure between 3.6 and 4.0.

Another analysis by researchers at Guangzhou Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention brought an estimate of 2.9.


In all three studies, the researchers acknowledged that their estimates came with significant uncertainties.

The R0 may differ from place to place depending on the control measures put in place by local authorities.

Calculations are also affected by a lack of data about people who contracted the virus from carriers who do not show symptoms.

The Guangzhou researchers said their initial findings suggested that the outbreak of the Wuhan virus – officially known as 2019-nCOV – could be much higher than the 2003 Sars epidemic.

“Our findings indicate that more rigorous control and prevention measures on early detection, diagnosis and treatment of cases infected with 2019-nCoV are needed to contain its further spread,” the Chinese researchers said.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #99 on: January 28, 2020, 12:16:37 AM »
Two Nasty Traits of This Coronavirus, Typically Not Seen Together
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/two-nasty-traits-of-this-coronavirus-typically-not-seen-together-8vi04nAuREuoBMjVs5qJHA
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Dr. Dena Grayson, who has years of training developing Ebola treatments, shares her concerns about this coronavirus.
I compiled what follows from a Series of Thirteen Tweets by physician (MD) and scientist (PhD) Dr. Dena Grayson. Emphasis is mine.

Is the Market Grossly Underestimating the Potential Impact of the Coronavirus Epidemic?
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/01/is-market-grossly-underestimating.html
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Despite the current drop in stocks (less than 1.5% as this is written), there's a tremendous reservoir of complacency about the economic and financial impact of the coronavirus epidemic. The zeitgeist reflects an implicit confidence that the coronavirus will blow over like the SARS scare a few years ago and the impact on the global economy will be essentially zero.
Have all the risks already been fully discounted? Here are some of the reasons why the assumption that this will have little effect on the U.S. economy and stock market may be misguided
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS