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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 354066 times)

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #550 on: February 06, 2020, 09:53:37 PM »
The UK government is now advising people who had travelled to a number of  Asian countries and had returned to the UK and developed symptoms to immediately self-isolate and call NHS 111 for advice.

The list include Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia, Philippines, Thailand, Nepal and Sri Lanka where cases of coronavirus have been confirmed.

-------------------------------

Update: The whistleblowing Chinese doctor who tried to raise the alarm about the coronavirus outbreak died in the early hours of Friday, a Communist party-controlled newspaper has now confirmed.

Li Wenliang, 34, was declared dead at 2.58am on Friday after “emergency treatment” at a hospital in Wuhan, the Global Times reported following hours of confusion over the ill doctor’s fate.

-------------------------------

Third UK Patient 'Caught Coronavirus in Singapore'
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-51398039

-----------------------------

Hong Kong’s Centre for Health Protection said in a statement that it had enough test kits, using the PCR heating method, for more than 20,000 specimens, adding that it planned on “stocking up further”.

OBTW, the population of Hong Kong was estimated at 7.44 million in 2019

-----------------------------

Betcha folks in Wuhan would give their eye teeth for accommodations like this ...

Situation Heading South: 3,700 Trapped Aboard Cruise Ship After Coronavirus Embarks
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/3700-trapped-aboard-cruise-ship-after-coronavirus-embarks/

... Princess Cruise Line did not respond to repeated requests for comment from Ars, including a list of detailed questions about the cases.

For now, passengers are biding their time cooped up in their cabins while crew members scramble to figure out how to feed and entertain 3,711 quarantined passengers for 14 days.

Many who have communicated with media report a frustrating lack of communication with staff, problems with food service, and shortages of supplies, such a diapers. Some reported breakfast arriving to their cabin at nearly 2pm, worrying passengers with diabetes who need to eat regularly. Others said they were given ham sandwiches with stale bread for lunch, a significant step down from the normal fare on luxury liners.

One passenger who spoke with The Washington Post said he was glad that at least his cabin had a balcony so he could see outside and get fresh air. He expressed sympathy for his fellow passengers who were not so lucky. “Can you imagine? It would be liked being locked in a wardrobe, wouldn’t it?” he said. “No fresh air. No natural light. It really must be a living hell for them.”

Off the boat, fear is reportedly growing in Japan over the guests who left the ship on other stops before the ship was quarantined. Thirteen passengers disembarked in Naha, the capital of Okinawa Prefecture, and some of those guests left the country.

----------------------------



---------------------------

China Grows More Isolated as Airlines Cancel More Than 50,000 Flights
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/06/coronavirus-china-becomes-increasingly-isolated-as-airlines-pull-out.html

One by one, air carriers have cut service after demand fell sharply and governments took more drastic measures they say aim to contain the spread of the diseases. These steps have left China, the world's second-largest air travel market after the U.S., more isolated.

Airlines in dozens of countries — from New Zealand to Finland to the United Arab Emirates — have scaled back service or in the case of U.S. airlines canceled flights altogether to the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong as the coronavirus spreads, a factor that will drive down airlines' 2020 revenue and deprive other segments of the travel industry, including hotels and retailers, of high-spending tourists.

More than 54,011 flights, or 28% of the scheduled flights to, from and within China between Jan. 23 and Feb. 4 were canceled, 14% of them the international scheduled flights. Getting around within China is also becoming more complicated, and close to 32% of domestic flights were called off in that period, Cirium data show.

-------------------------------

Good article on treatment options ...

How Experts Plan to Treat the New Coronavirus
https://www.livescience.com/amp/possible-treatments-new-coronavirus.html

------------------------

Only a Handful of Children Have Been Diagnosed With the Coronavirus — and Experts Have a Few Guesses As To Why
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-case-children-infants-low-disease-expert-explain-why-2020-2?amp
« Last Edit: February 06, 2020, 10:32:45 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

harpy

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #551 on: February 06, 2020, 10:06:15 PM »
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/06/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html

Just note, this article is being deleted on multiple online forums.

New York Times 2/6/20:

Wuhan is told to round up infected residents for mass quarantine camps.Image Inside the exhibition center in Wuhan that now serves as a hospital. Inside the exhibition center in Wuhan that now serves as a hospital.Credit...Chinatopix, via Associated PressA senior Chinese official has ordered the authorities in the city of Wuhan to immediately round up all residents who have been infected with the coronavirus and place them in isolation, quarantine or designated hospitals.]

Sun Chunlan, a vice premier tasked with leading the central government’s response to the outbreak, said city investigators should go to each home to check the temperatures of every resident and interview infected patients’ close contacts.“Set up a 24-hour duty system. During these wartime conditions, there must be no deserters, or they will be nailed to the pillar of historical shame forever,” Ms. Sun said.

The city’s authorities have raced to meet these instructions by setting up makeshift mass quarantine shelters this week. But concerns are growing about whether the centers, which will house thousands of people in large spaces, will be able to provide even basic care to patients and protect against the risk of further infection.A lockdown across the city and much of its surrounding province has exacerbated a shortage of medical supplies, testing kits and hospital beds. Many residents, unwell and desperate for care, have been forced to go from hospital to hospital on foot, only to be turned away without being tested for the virus, let alone treated.



They have had to resort to quarantines at home, risking the spread of the virus within families and neighborhoods.The city has set up makeshift shelters in a sports stadium, an exhibition center and a building complex. Some went into operation on Thursday. The shelters are meant for coronavirus patients with milder symptoms, the government has said.When Ms. Sun inspected a shelter set up in Hongshan Stadium on Tuesday, she emphasized that anyone who should be admitted must be rounded up, according to a Chinese news outlet, Modern Express. “It must be cut off from the source!” she said of the virus. “You must keep a close eye! Don’t miss it!” Photographs taken inside the stadium showed narrow rows of simple beds separated only by desks and chairs typically used in classrooms.

Some comments on Chinese social media compared the scenes to those from the Spanish flu in 1918.According to a widely shared post on Weibo, a popular social media site, “conditions were very poor” at an exhibition center that had been converted into a quarantine facility.



There were power failures and electric blankets could not be turned on, the user wrote, citing a relative who had been taken there, saying that people had to “shiver in their sleep.”There was also a staff shortage, the post said, where “doctors and nurses were not seen to be taking note of symptoms

Paddy

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #552 on: February 06, 2020, 10:10:32 PM »

And become endemic, joining the four other known coronaviruses that cause 25% of all common colds.

Not really equivalent - the common cold has a vastly lower (effectively negligible) mortality rate than this new zoonosis.

harpy

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #553 on: February 06, 2020, 10:12:42 PM »
Can someone please help explain to me

1)  What are they spraying exactly?


https://streamable.com/vzni2

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #554 on: February 06, 2020, 10:21:13 PM »
Are they sending people door to door to check temperatures?
Then won’t the walking thermometers get infected and become carriers themselves?
Are they having people take their own temperature and self report?
Then wouldn’t many of them lie?
How are they testing people in Wuhan and Hubei?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

be cause

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #555 on: February 07, 2020, 02:31:56 AM »
  in a world where good men like Li Wenliang are as dirt on the ground to be trod on by the boot of power , I feel the need of a miraculous transformation of humanity . This shit's beyond fixing otherwise .  .. b.c.

ps .. heart rate still 168 so i'm definitely still alive ..
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #556 on: February 07, 2020, 02:39:55 AM »
We hear concerns that the Wuhan virus could be impacting the global economy. What with all the airline flights being cancelled, and with a reduction in industrial activity, we may be able to detect a Wuhan effect in global CO2 levels. Which would be a good thing, considering how rapidly it has been rising this year.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #557 on: February 07, 2020, 02:56:05 AM »
Global = 31,368
Mainland China =  31,211
Severe/Critical = 4821
Deaths = 638

The fatality rate in Wuhan is 4.1 percent and 2.8 percent in Hubei, compared to 0.17 percent elsewhere in mainland China.



-------------------------------------

41 New Cases Confirmed On Cruise Ship In Japan, Bringing Total To 61
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3049431/coronavirus-41-new-cases-confirmed-cruise-ship-japan-bringing

The new cases raise the number of confirmed infections on board the Diamond Princess to at least 61, says Japan’s health minister

Authorities have so far tested 273 people on board the cruise liner, which has more than 3,700 passengers and crew on board

Quote
... “I keep hearing painful coughs from a foreigner in a nearby room,” one passenger wrote on Twitter, noting with concern that crew members were delivering meals from room to room. “I might get infected today or tomorrow.”
https://twitter.com/daxa_tw/status/1225173982715842560

Here are the nationalities of the newly diagnosed passengers onboard the Diamond Princess: 21 from Japan, eight from the US, five from Australia, five from Canada, one from Argentina and one from Britain.

----------------------------

Coronavirus Drives Glove Sales as Hong Kong Residents Look for Extra Layers of Protection Amid Outbreak
https://www.scmp.com/topics/coronavirus-outbreak

Despite global manufacturers ramping up production, gloves are becoming increasingly scarce on the city’s shelves

Doctor cautions that even if you glove up before going out, you need to wash your hands thoroughly after removing them

---------------------------

Thais Encouraged to Make Their Own Masks and Sanitisers Due to Shortage

‘If you can’t find hand sanitisers in stores, make it yourself. Mix clean water with alcohol and carry it wherever you go,’ public health minister says

Thailand has started enforcing price control measures on surgical masks and hand sanitisers, amid scarce supplies in drug stores

---------------------------

Italy Confirms a Third Case

A third coronavirus patient has been confirmed in Italy, according to an official with the Italian health ministry.

The patient was one of 56 Italian evacuees from Wuhan, who arrived in Rome on Monday and were put in a military site in Rome.

-----------------------------

... “This is almost a humanitarian disaster” for the central Chinese region, said Willy Lam, an adjunct professor at the Center for China Studies at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, who cited insufficient supplies of medical equipment, food and other necessities. “The Wuhan people seem to be left high and dry by themselves.”
« Last Edit: February 07, 2020, 03:24:01 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

wili

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #558 on: February 07, 2020, 03:08:48 AM »
"...i'm definitely still alive " Definitely glad to hear it, be cause!

Have you tried engaging the vagus nerve? When I get tachycardia, if I can muster the energy (I find it leaves me quite despondent), if I hold my breath really really hard like I'm trying to take a shit (do it on the toilet, just in case :) ), I can generally kick my system out of it. Splashing cold water on your face is supposed to be good, too, but it never worked for me. There are lots of other techniques out there (some a bit...woo woo), so you might have to experiment a bit to see what works.

(Apologies if this is all very old news for you)

Wishing you the best--wili

On the topic of the thread--yes, a major slow down in the world economy would be a good way to lower emissions (or at least slow their increase). Ideally, this would be carefully planned so as to cause the least harm to ordinary people. But instead, we get a (likely) epidemic and probable eventual market and economic crash.

I do hope that it forever puts a damper on people's enthusiasm for cruises...a very wasteful and stupid way to travel on so many levels...
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

SteveMDFP

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #559 on: February 07, 2020, 03:11:50 AM »
Can someone please help explain to me

1)  What are they spraying exactly?


https://streamable.com/vzni2

Apparently, bleach (or other household disinfectants):

China is sending trucks to spray bleach on entire cities as the country struggles to contain the Wuhan coronavirus
https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-china-dispatches-bleach-trucks-to-spray-down-cities-2020-2

I suppose there are crazier measures one could implement.  Certainly coronaviruses should be destroyed by bleach.  But also by detergents, time, drying, almost anything.  They're pretty fragile things.  Wiping down handles and doorknobs with alcohol would have been cheaper, easier, and less likely to harm people's respiratory tracts. 

If doubling times are declining, I think it might be in part because air quality may be improving as transport and industrial activity are subsiding.  Certainly, smokers may be well-advised to redouble efforts to quit.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #560 on: February 07, 2020, 03:44:04 AM »
Pentagon Sets Up More Military Bases To Take In Quarantined Americans
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/07/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-death-toll-rises.html

The Pentagon identified 11 military installations near major airports that can support those evacuated from China, where the current outbreak originated.

Department of Defense personnel won't be in direct contact with the evacuees and will minimize contact with personnel supporting the evacuees, officials said.

The bases are in Hawaii, Illinois, Texas, California, Georgia, New York, Washington state, New Jersey, Michigan and the District of Columbia.

--------------------------------

Second Chinese City, Xiaogan, Records More Than 2,000 Coronavirus Cases

The Chinese city of Xiaogan, around 70km north-west of Wuhan in Hubei province, has become only the second city in China (after Wuhan) to record more than 2,000 confirmed cases of the coronavirus.

---------------------------------

Suspected Case of Deadly Coronavirus in Young Baby at Altnagelvin Hospital in Derry
https://www.derryjournal.com/news/suspected-case-of-deadly-coronavirus-in-young-baby-at-altnagelvin-hospital-1-9226254/amp

A mother and a young child have presented with symptoms consistent with the deadly coronavirus at Altnagelvin Hospital in Derry.

It is believed the mother and child recently returned to the city after visiting Hong Kong.

The UK Chief Medical Officers have assessed that the risk to the public is moderate.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2020, 03:56:58 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Rodius

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #561 on: February 07, 2020, 04:03:58 AM »
I am sure others have noticed this but I havent read it mentioned here (I may have missed it too)

Anyway, International cases have been lagging behind China by about two weeks (coincidence given the 2 week incubation?)

On https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
China had 278 cases two weeks ago.
Today International is 265.
This mimicking has been fairly consistent throughout.

We will know for sure in a week or so but I suspect Internation is about to track upwards quickly in the next weeek.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #562 on: February 07, 2020, 06:55:17 AM »
https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia
As of 2020-02-07 18:39 National Statistics

31215
confirmed
+3155 from yesterday

26359
Suspect
+4833 from yesterday

4821
Severe
+962 from yesterday

637
death
+73 from yesterday

global
confirmed
31474
death
638

Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #563 on: February 07, 2020, 08:54:00 AM »
Slightly later update in the day.

截至2020-02-06 23:26国家统计
资料说明
31,224 确诊  + 3,164   较昨日
26,359 疑似  + 4,833   较昨日
  4,821 重症  +    962   较昨日
     637 死亡  +     73    较昨日
  1,596 治愈  +    443   较昨日

As of 2020-02-06 23:26 National Statistics
data description
31,224 Confirmed  + 3,164 from yesterday
26,359 Suspect      + 4,833 from yesterday
  4,821 Severe       +    962 from yesterday
     637 Dead         +      73 from yesterday
  1,596 Recovered  +    443 from yesterday

Johns Hopkins

31,486 Confirmed
     638 Dead
  1,603 Recovered


Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #564 on: February 07, 2020, 11:30:49 AM »
Shocking moment a man walks into a Walmart with a sign on his back saying 'Caution, I have the coronavirus' and sprays Lysol on $7,000 worth of produce
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7969667/Moment-man-walks-Illinois-Walmart-sign-saying-Caution-coronavirus.html
Quote
A man wearing a yellow face mask and a sign on his back reading, 'Caution, I have the Coronavirus,' walked into a Walmart store in Illinois on Sunday
The man sprayed Lysol on produce, clothing, and health and beauty items
He was with another man, who may have been filming the prankster
No one is believed to have come into contact with the disease
People are searching for the pair who caused around $10,000 of damage
An Instagram star caused carnage on board a flight from Toronto to Jamaica when he allegedly yelled he had coronavirus

People could get the novel coronavirus more than once, health experts warn — recovering does not necessarily make you immune
https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-risk-of-reinfection-2020-2
Quote
A coronavirus outbreak that started in China has infected more than 20,000 people and killed more than 400. Cases have been recorded in 24 other countries.
So far, most patients seem to make full recoveries, but the Chinese Health Commission warns that even those who've recovered could be at risk of reinfection.
The antibodies that patients are producing so far don't necessarily last very long, one expert said.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

kassy

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #565 on: February 07, 2020, 02:06:59 PM »
We will know for sure in a week or so but I suspect International is about to track upwards quickly in the next week.

Good point. I also wonder about cases in countries which do much less or no tracking/prevention. There is a story upthread about Indians returning to Kolkata, thousands of them with no request so self quarantaine. Same for many other nations in Asia and Africa.

Another interesting metric is cases in EU/US that have no relation to China.

We will see how this develops along with the supply chain disruptions.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #566 on: February 07, 2020, 02:26:29 PM »
Is this it? This must be it. The quarantines, the gloves, the massive handwashing.. that is what hopefully going on.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #567 on: February 07, 2020, 02:38:31 PM »
Is this it? This must be it. The quarantines, the gloves, the massive handwashing.. that is what hopefully going on.

Suspected cases fairly flat since 31 Jan:


Suspected cases should be a lead indicator compared to confirmed cases.


Flat number per day leads to straight line increase in total:

crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #568 on: February 07, 2020, 02:54:48 PM »
China had 278 cases two weeks ago.
Today International is 265.
This mimicking has been fairly consistent throughout.

We will know for sure in a week or so but I suspect Internation is about to track upwards quickly in the next weeek.

China had 278 17 days ago on 20 Jan.

I can't see any older info to see if it mimicks.

I doubt it will trend upwards as rapidly due to better tracking of contacts, less stress on health services, reduced flights/passengers traveling, less catch up in testing out of control situation, ....

I don't think it is fully contained outside China, there are cases of people confirmed that haven't been to China, but actual number is surely a lot less than actual number of cases in China on 20 Jan and a higher proportion are suitably quarantined.
 

kassy

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #569 on: February 07, 2020, 03:14:27 PM »
In the areas reporting which might be an important caveat.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #570 on: February 07, 2020, 03:35:04 PM »
Read on the Generational Dynamics forum that pets were ordered killed in the affected areas, then order countermanded.
Total panic.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

bluice

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #571 on: February 07, 2020, 03:35:47 PM »
China will return to work on Monday. Let’s see what happens then.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #572 on: February 07, 2020, 04:10:26 PM »
Citizen Journalist Covering Virus Missing in China (5:36 p.m. HK)
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-02-06/doctor-who-issued-warning-dies-deaths-top-632-virus-update

Chinese citizen journalists Chen Qiushi and Fang Bin have served as the world’s eyes and ears in the city of Wuhan. Now one of them is missing.

Chen has been out of reach for more than 20 hours. Fang, who was silent much of Friday until a video posted in the evening, was previously detained briefly by authorities for his video of corpses in a hospital.







--------------------------------

Suspected Infected Ship Docked in  New Jersey: Royal Caribbean Shares Tumble (8:39 a.m. NY)

Shares of the cruise ship operator fell in pre-market U.S. trading. Some passengers -- all Chinese nationals -- on the company’s Anthem of the Seas, which docked in Bayonne, New Jersey, on Friday morning, have shown signs of respiratory illness, website NJ.com reported.



----------------------------

Hubei Facing Hospital Staffing Shortage (8:28 a.m. HK)

Hubei, the province under siege from the epidemic, is struggling to keep up with more than 22,000 confirmed coronavirus cases. Hubei is still facing a shortage of about 2,250 doctors and nurses, the vice governor of Hubei, Yang Yunyan, was cited as saying in the official Hubei Daily on Thursday.

That comes even as the central government had sent in 10,596 medical professionals to help fight the epidemic as of Feb. 5. Yang said retired doctors and nurses should be encouraged to return to work.

----------------------------

Researchers Defend Findings of Symptom-Free Coronavirus Spread (6:52 a.m. NY)

Researchers stood behind their finding that a woman wasn’t feeling ill at the time she set off a cluster of coronavirus cases in Germany last month, adding fuel to a debate over how the disease spreads. Their response counters a statement from German health officials earlier this week that the Chinese woman was in fact experiencing symptoms.

-------------------------

British Man On Japan Cruise Ship Tests Positive For coronavirus

A British man, 58-year-old Alan Steele, on his honeymoon is among the 61 passengers to have tested positive for coronavirus on a cruise ship in Japan.

Alan posted on Facebook:

... Just to let you all know I have been diagnosed as having the virus and am being shipped to hospital.

Would also like to say that at the moment I am not showing any symptoms so just possible a carrier. (... See Above)

Will let you know how I am going on when possible.


-------------------------

North Korea Has Reported Its First Case of the Coronavirus

North Korea has reported its first case of the coronavirus, according to South Korean media.

The patient, a woman from Pyongyang, recently returned to the North from China, the Joongang Ilbo, a daily newspaper, said on Friday, citing state-run media.

The country has taken several measures to guard against the disease - which has affected all of its neighbours - amid warnings that an epidemic could put an intolerable strain on its poor healthcare infrastructure.

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/02/06/asia/north-korea-wuhan-coronavirus-infection-intl-hnk/index.html

----------------------------

Singapore Reports Three More Coronavius Cases of Unknown Origin

Singapore is reporting three more coronavirus cases with no links to previous cases or travel history in China.

The country moved its disease outbreak response up a level to Orange on Friday as the new cases emerged, according to the Straits Times.

The Orange designation means the nature of disease “is severe and spreads easily from person to person,” but “has not spread widely in Singapore and is being contained,” according to the Disease Outbreak Response System Condition color-coded framework.

The upgrading of the coronavirus alert level in Singapore has sparked panic-buying of essentials in some shops across the island, Reuters reports.

Quote
... With the disease reviving memories of Sars, which killed more than 30 people in Singapore and hundreds worldwide, shoppers started clearing shelves of toilet paper, noodles and rice, and formed long queues in supermarkets across the island on Friday evening, videos posted on social media showed.



-----------------------------

China Urges Employees, Clients to Scour World for Masks (5:35 p.m. HK)

As the virus triggers shortages of medical supplies in China, businesses are urging employees and their clients to bring back face masks from overseas. Meanwhile, alcohol and ethanol makers including Tsingtao Brewery Co. are shifting to produce disinfectant to help ease a shortage in medical grade alcohol, with an industry association urging others to follow suit.

-------------------------

WHO Warns of Global Shortage of Coronavirus Protective Equipment
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who/who-warns-of-global-shortage-of-coronavirus-protective-equipment-idUSKBN2011EK

Demand for masks, gowns, gloves and other protective gear has risen by up to 100 times and prices have soared due to the China coronavirus, producing a “severe” disruption in supply, World Health Organisation chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus is reported as saying by Reuters.

“This situation is exacerbated by widespread use of personal protective equipment outside patient care,” he told reporters in Geneva, adding that he had spoken to manufacturers and distributors to ensure supplies for those who need them.

----------------------------

Mask Factory in France Gears Up As Supplies Run Short

In Angers, France, a company owned by the medical supply company Kolmi Hopen makes 170 million medical face masks a year. It isn’t enough.

As orders pour in at a staggering rate, Kolmi Hopen is hiring more workers to keep up with demand.

“We’re making masks as fast as we can,” said Guillaume Laverdure, the chief operating officer of Kolmi Hopen’s parent company, Canada-based Medicom.

“But demand is still rising,” he added

-------------------------

Coronavirus Diagnostic Test To Be Rolled Out Across UK

The test used to diagnose coronavirus is being rolled out to laboratories across the UK from Monday, increasing testing capacity to more than 1,000 people a day.

Currently coronavirus is tested and diagnosed in one laboratory in London, but testing will be extended to 12 labs across the country over the coming weeks.

---------------------------

China Sacrifices a Province to Save the World From Coronavirus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-05/china-sacrifices-a-province-to-save-the-world-from-coronavirus

... The toll, which grows larger every day, reflects a local health system overwhelmed by the fast-moving, alien pathogen, making even the most basic care impossible. It’s also an ongoing illustration of the human cost extracted by the world’s largest-known quarantine, with China effectively locking down the region from Jan. 23 to contain the virus’ spread to the rest of the country, and the world.

But Hubei -- known for its car factories and bustling capital Wuhan -- is paying the price, with the mortality rate for coronavirus patients there 3.1%, versus 0.16% for the rest of China.

“If the province was not sealed off, some people would have gone all around the country to try to get medical help, and would have turned the whole nation into an epidemic-stricken area,” said Yang Gonghuan, former deputy director general of China’s Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

Quote
... “It’s like fighting a war -- some things are hard, but must be done.”

... The quarantine was the right thing to do for the good of the wider population, said the doctor at the Third People’s Hospital. “Some may say Hubei was sacrificed, but it did effectively stem the spread to elsewhere.

... The idea of sacrificing one’s self for a greater, national goal is deeply-embedded in Chinese culture, and is invoked by the country’s leaders in times of hardship.

« Last Edit: February 07, 2020, 07:10:02 PM by vox_mundi »
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vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #573 on: February 07, 2020, 04:17:59 PM »
China’s Refiners Process 15% Less Crude (6:02 p.m. HK)

Oil refineries across China have cut the amount of crude they’re turning into fuels by around 15%, and could deepen those reductions in the coming weeks. State-owned and private plants have pared back refining by at least 2 million barrels a day over the last week, said people with knowledge of operations at the nation’s largest complexes.

---------------------------

China LNG Force Majeure Rejected (6:29 p.m. HK)

Two of Europe’s biggest energy companies rejected a Chinese force majeure on liquefied natural gas contracts. Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Total SA didn’t accept the legal grounds for the move by China National Offshore Oil Corp. that would have freed it from its contractual obligations to take delivery of the shipments.

-----------------------

Samsung Vietnam Sees Virus-Tied Production Problems (6:26 p.m. HK)

Samsung Vietnam’s production will face difficulties because major components including batteries and LCD screens are imported mostly from China, the news website of Vietnam’s Ministry of Trade reported.

-------------------------

Foxconn Warns Staff to Keep Away From Shenzhen Base (6:34 p.m. HK)

The company told employees at its Shenzhen facility not to return to work when the extended Lunar New Year break ends Feb. 10, according to a memo obtained by Bloomberg. Foxconn’s main iPhone-making base is farther north in Zhengzhou but coastal Shenzhen serves as its Chinese headquarters. The company also assembles a small portion of iPhones there.

----------------------------

Shenzhen Asks Drivers to Register Before Entering (7:56 a.m. NY)

China’s tech hub of Shenzhen will require that drivers register online before they enter, effective Feb. 8, according to the city’s official WeChat account.

----------------------------

World's Most Productive Car Plant Closes Over Coronavirus

Hyundai has suspended operations at its giant Ulsan complex in South Korea, the most productive car factory in the world, due to a lack of parts caused by the coronavirus lock down in China.

According to AFP, Hyundai has ran out of the engine wiring harnesses which are imported from China, and closed the factories on Friday. Hyundai said the supplier’s factory had shut down after a worker tested positive for coronavirus.

-----------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #574 on: February 07, 2020, 05:27:24 PM »
Rabobank: The Dilemma Facing China Is Truly Awful
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-dilemma-facing-china-truly-awful
Quote
As has been the case since Monday’s sell-off, there is an attempt to try to look on the bright side of the virus headlines. Chinese officials are spreading the word globally that things are under control and that other countries should not be closing their borders to China, in line with the WHO recommendations that says that free-flows of people during a potential epidemic is completely fine. Of course, at home China is still under draconian lockdown, with tens of millions of people not allowed to leave their homes, and hundreds of millions more voluntarily following the same advice. Moreover, as a former Mexican ambassador to China publicly notes, when Mexico briefly suffered from H1N1 bird ‘flu back in 2009 China’s response was to ignore the WHO’s recommendations and: place all Mexican nationals in China under quarantine; cancel all direct flights to Mexico; stop issuing visas to Mexicans; and closed all its consulates in Mexico.   

Directly from zerohedge, but this seems hard to fake:
A Stunning 400 Million People Are On Lockdown In China As Guangzhou Joins Quarantine
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/more-400-million-people-lockdown-guangzhou-joins-quarantine
Quote
Guangzhou, the capital of China's southwestern Guangdong Province and the country's fifth largest city with nearly 15 million residents, has just joined the ranks of cities imposing a mandatory lockdown on all citizens, effectively trapping residents inside their homes, with only limited permission to venture into the outside world to buy essential supplies.

The decision means 3 provinces, 60 cities and 400 million people are now facing China's most-strict level of lockdown as Beijing struggles to contain the coronavirus outbreak as the virus has already spread to more than 2 dozen countries.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #575 on: February 07, 2020, 05:41:03 PM »
Panic Buying Shows No Sign of Ending in Hong Kong as Shoppers Urge Government To Try To Restore Public’s Confidence
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3049585/coronavirus-panic-buying-shows-no-sign-ending

Those looking for cleaning supplies, tissue paper and dry goods again found only empty shelves in stores across the city

Shoppers turn to buying confectionery, snacks and drinks, despite food merchants assuring the public there will not be a food shortage



Anxious Hongkongers have been scrambling for days to stock up on essentials over fears that border restrictions to contain the coronavirus will choke off supplies. A mandatory quarantine takes effect at midnight on Friday on everyone arriving from mainland China.

---------------------------------------

Hiding Your Coronavirus History Can Give You Bad Social Credit
https://www.scmp.com/tech/article/3049568/hiding-your-coronavirus-history-can-give-you-bad-social-credit

Shanghai city authorities have decided that hiding your history with the novel coronavirus is enough to land you on a social credit blacklist. The new rule covers people who have concealed travel history in areas affected by the virus, such as Wuhan, or contact with patients or suspected patients, according to a decision published Friday. The rule also affects those who evade isolation for medical observation.

Over the past week, Chinese tech companies have pushed out new apps and features to show users if they traveled with coronavirus patients or which areas of a city have recorded coronavirus cases.

Social credit schemes in China are intended to act as a carrot-and-stick mechanism. They can punish individuals and businesses who fail to follow rules and regulations or offer rewards based on “good behavior.” Despite the potential impact on free speech, some experts say it could be best described as a citizen and company database. Shanghai’s social credit information site states that it compiles data on companies and individuals, including records of arrears and complaints and ability to repay debt.

-------------------------------

Baidu Map App Shows You Where Coronavirus Patients Are Located
https://www.scmp.com/tech/article/3049503/baidu-map-app-shows-you-where-coronavirus-patients-are-located

Chinese search giant Baidu is making it easier for people to avoid areas where the new coronavirus has spread. The company released an epidemic map for its Baidu Map app that shows the location of confirmed and suspected cases of the deadly infection in real time.

The map also shows live data on the coronavirus, including epidemic control checkpoints and traffic arrangements. This could help the millions of people in cities that have been locked down to stop the spread of the virus. Other map app makers have also been helping track coronavirus outbreaks. Qihoo 360, China’s biggest cybersecurity company, has an app feature that lets users check if they traveled by train or plane with someone who contracted the virus.

------------------------------

Coronavirus: Infected Drivers Raise Concerns for Ride-Hailing Services in China
https://www.scmp.com/tech/apps-social/article/3049544/coronavirus-infected-drivers-raise-concerns-ride-hailing-services

Didi Chuxing, operator of China’s largest ride-hailing platform, recently had one driver diagnosed with the coronavirus

...“The [coronavirus] epidemic will have a substantial impact on the ride-hailing industry because there is a probability of getting infected [by the drivers],” said Sun Naiyue, an analyst at research firm Analysys, who covers China’s broader mobility sector. “The demand has also been decreasing, as people are not going out.”

Concerns have risen over potential infections after a driver on Didi Chuxing, China’s largest ride-hailing platform, was diagnosed with the coronavirus in the past few days – one of the first confirmed cases in the industry.

Local news reports so far indicate there are at least five cases of taxi and ride-hailing drivers being diagnosed with the coronavirus. A driver in southern Hainan province, for example, continued to work via multiple ride-hailing platforms even after showing symptoms of the disease on January 27.

Didi has ceased its ride-hailing operation in Wuhan, capital of central Hubei province and epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak. The company, however, has deployed special fleets of drivers equipped with protective uniforms to give free rides to all hospital staff in the city, according to its post on WeChat.

-------------------------


Face masks rationed in Macau and Taiwan amid coronavirus outbreak
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #576 on: February 07, 2020, 05:54:20 PM »
Indonesia Maintains It Has No Confirmed Cases

It is the world’s fourth-most-populous country, and it is a popular destination for Chinese tourists, including from Wuhan. But Indonesia still has no confirmed cases of the coronavirus, officials there insist.

On Thursday, the health ministry’s director for communicable diseases, said that none of the 243 people evacuated to Indonesia from Wuhan — 238 students and five officials from the Indonesian consulate there — showed signs of illness after being screened and quarantined. And he said until they showed symptoms, there was no need for full testing.

-------------------------

Concerns Coronavirus is Going Undetected in Indonesia
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/feb/07/concerns-coronavirus-is-going-undetected-in-indonesia

There is growing concern that the new coronavirus may be going undetected in Indonesia, where officials have not confirmed a single case of infection among the 272 million-strong population despite the country’s close links to China.

A study by academics from Harvard University analysed the number of passengers taking flights from Wuhan to destinations around the world, and found that the number of cases identified in both Indonesia and Cambodia appeared below what might be expected. The study, published quickly to improve scientists’ understanding of the outbreak, has not been peer reviewed, but adds to mounting fears that cases are not being identified.

It also suggested that cases recorded in Thailand, where 25 people have tested positive, were below the number scientists might expect to see. Cambodia has so far confirmed one case of coronavirus.

Reports have questioned the ability of Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous country, to test for the virus, though the Indonesian health ministry said on Wednesday that it has all the necessary resources.

Indonesia, which receives significant Chinese investment, relies heavily on Chinese tourism. The country’s Chinese-Indonesians are estimated to make up roughly 3% of the population.

There is also concern over the thousands of Chinese tourists, including 200 people from Wuhan, who are reportedly stranded in Bali after direct flights to mainland China were banned by Indonesia. None of the tourists were showing symptoms, according to officials, but they are not in quarantine.

Using predicted imports of 2019-nCoV cases to determine locations that may not be identifying all imported cases
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020495v1.full.pdf

-----------------------------

Indonesian Health Ministry Rushes to Equip Local Labs With Coronavirus Detector
https://jakartaglobe.id/news/indonesian-health-ministry-rushes-to-equip-local-labs-with-coronavirus-detector

Indonesia is rushing to equip laboratories across the country with medical equipment capable of detecting the 2019-nCoV novel coronavirus, a Health Ministry official said on Friday.

As of today, only the ministry's Health Research and Development Board (Balitbangkes) in Jakarta has the equipment necessary to identify the virus.

Indonesia has not recorded any confirmed case of the pneumonia-like viral infection so far, despite confirmed cases in neighboring Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand and Cambodia.

Many have raised the possibility the anomaly may be a result of Indonesia's inability to detect the virus in infected patients.

-----------------------------

Fears Coronavirus Will Be Uncontainable If It Enters Indonesia
https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/am/fears-coronavirus-will-be-uncontainable-if-it-enters-indonesia/11942054

---------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #577 on: February 07, 2020, 06:01:22 PM »
Read on the Generational Dynamics forum that pets were ordered killed in the affected areas, then order countermanded.
Total panic.
Guess another one of your conspiracy sites was pushing Fake News.

Starving pets trapped in empty homes in Chinese city at epicentre of coronavirus outbreak
https://www.scmp.com/video/china/3049481/starving-pets-trapped-empty-homes-chinese-city-epicentre-coronavirus-outbreak



Animal rescuers are bringing food and water to another group of victims of the coronavirus at the epicentre of the outbreak in Wuhan, China. As many as 50,000 pets have been trapped in empty homes after their owners were unable to return because of a citywide lockdown in place since January 23, 2020, according to the Wuhan Small Animals Protection Association.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #578 on: February 07, 2020, 06:21:54 PM »
How Long Coronaviruses Persist On Surfaces and How To Inactivate Them
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-coronaviruses-persist-surfaces-inactivate.html

A review article summarizes everything that researchers know about the lifetime of corona viruses on surfaces and the effect of disinfectants.

... The evaluated studies, which focus on the pathogens Sars coronavirus and Mers coronavirus, showed, for example, that the viruses can persist on surfaces and remain infectious at room temperature for up to nine days. On average, they survive between four and five days. "Low temperature and high air humidity further increase their lifespan," points out Kampf.

... Tests with various disinfection solutions showed that agents based on ethanol, hydrogen peroxide or sodium hypochlorite are effective against coronaviruses. If these agents are applied in appropriate concentrations, they reduce the number of infectious coronaviruses by four so-called log steps within one minute: this means, for example, from one million to only 100 pathogenic particles.

The experts assume that the results from the analyses of other coronaviruses are transferable to the novel virus. "Different coronaviruses were analysed, and the results were all similar," concludes Eike Steinmann.

Günter Kampf et al. Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and its inactivation with biocidal agents, Journal of Hospital Infection (2020)

--------------------------------------

Coronavirus 2019-nCoV: The Largest Meta-Analysis of the Sequenced Genomes of the Virus
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-coronavirus-ncov-largest-meta-analysis-sequenced.html

The largest analysis of coronavirus 2019-nCoV genomes that have been sequenced so far confirms that the virus originates in bats and shows a low virus heterogeneity. At the same time, researchers identified a hyper-variable genomic hotspot in the proteins of the virus responsible for the existence of two virus subtypes. The leading author of this study, published in the Journal of Medical Virology, is Federico M. Giorgi, bioinformatics researcher at the Department of Pharmacy and Biotechnology of the University of Bologna.

This new study analyzed the genomes of the 56 coronavirus strains sequenced in different parts of the world, including those extracted from the two Chinese patients held at the Infectious Disease Ward of Lazzaro Spallanzani Hospital in Rome, Italy. This is the most comprehensive study of coronavirus genomes so far conducted.

Researchers confirmed the notion that the virus probably originates from a zoonotic pathogen: its closest relative, which was isolated in the past few weeks, matches the coronavirus sequence EPI_ISL_402131 found in the Rhinolophus affinis, a medium-size Asian bat of the Yunnan Province (China). The human coronavirus genome shares at least 96.2% of its identity with its bat relative, while its similarity rate with the human strain of the SARS virus (severe acute respiratory syndrome) is much lower, only 80.3%.

The researchers have also discovered that all the existing DNA sequences of coronavirus are very similar, even if they come from different regions of China and from various parts of the world—the genomes obtained from patients since the beginning of the outbreak share a sequence identity over 99%. "The virus shows low heterogeneity and variability—this is good news," explains Federico M. Giorgi. "With a homogeneous viral population, potential drug therapies are deemed to be more effective on everyone."

However, the study identified for the first time a hyper-variable hotspot in the virus proteins, eventually pinpointing two virus subtypes. The latter differ only by a single amino acid, which is able to change the sequence and the structure of ORF8-encoded protein, a virus component yet to be characterized.



Open Access: Carmine Ceraolo et al. Genomic variance of the 2019‐nCoV coronavirus, Journal of Medical Virology (2020)
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #579 on: February 07, 2020, 06:30:21 PM »
White House Sees a Minimal Impact on US Economic Growth From Outbreak
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/07/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

The White House’s economic adviser said that President Donald Trump’s administration does not expect the coronavirus in China will have a major effect on the U.S. economy. “There’s a lot of variables involved and things we don’t know. Internally we have looked at a drop in GDP of perhaps two-tenths of 1% — that’s all we found so far. Again, based on the past and based on what we’re seeing ” National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow told reporters. —Reuters[/b]

---------------------------------

The Fed Flags Coronavirus as Potential Threat to US Growth
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/2020-02-mpr-summary.htm

The Federal Reserve on Friday announced that it’s now monitoring the coronavirus as a potential threat to U.S. growth. The central bank wrote that “possible spillovers from the effects of the coronavirus in China have presented a new risk to the outlook. “Though recent reports have suggested steadier economic growth in Europe and China, the Fed warned the disease could “lead to disruptions in China that spill over to the rest of the global economy.” — Franck

------------------------

S&P Slashes Forecast for China's Economic Growth

S&P said it now forecast Chinese GDP growth of 5%, down from its previous estimate of 5.7%, but cautioned that it was less confident in its figures than usual because of continuing uncertainty over the severity of the outbreak.

This will flow through to the global economy because China accounts for a third of worldwide growth, S&P said.

“The global impact will be felt through four real economy channels: sharply reduced tourism revenues, lower exports of consumer and capital goods, lower commodity prices, and industrial supply-chain disruptions,” it said.

Quote
... “If the virus cannot be contained, [which is] a material risk, the economic impact could develop exponentially with significant credit implications.”

--------------------------

Global Shipping Has Been Hit By the Coronavirus. Now Goods Are Getting Stranded
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/05/business/shipping-coronavirus-impact/index.html

About 80% of world goods trade by volume is carried by sea and China is home to seven of the world's 10 busiest container ports, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. Nearby Singapore and South Korea each have a mega port too.

"A closure of the world's manufacturing hub impacts container shipping at large, as it is a vital facilitator of the intra-Asian and global supply chains," said Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at BIMCO, an international shipping association. "This will affect many industries and limit demand for containerized goods transport," Sand told CNN Business.

The shutdowns mean that some ships can't get into Chinese ports, as the loading and discharging of goods slows, said Guy Platten, secretary general of the International Chamber of Shipping, a trade body. Others are stuck in dock, waiting for workers to return to ports so that construction and repairs can be completed, Platten added.

Still more vessels are idling in "floating quarantined zones," as countries such as Australia and Singapore refuse to allow ships that have called at Chinese ports to enter their own until the crew has been declared virus-free, added Sand. Platten said he knew of at least one crew that is running low on food because their ship has been idled for so long.

Giant shipping companies such as Maersk, MSC Mediterranean Shipping, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA-CGM have said that they have reduced the number of vessels on routes connecting China and Hong Kong with India, Canada, the United States and West Africa.

The longer the health crisis lasts, the harder it will be to move goods around the world. ... The lack of activity is reflected in oil prices, which have crashed into a bear market.



-------------------------------------

Many Global Firms, Excluded from Epidemic Insurance, Face Heavy Coronavirus Costs
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-insurance/many-global-firms-excluded-from-epidemic-insurance-face-heavy-coronavirus-costs-idUSKBN1ZS1CU

(Reuters) - Many global companies from hotels and airlines to industrial houses are expected to have to foot the bill for disruptions caused by a new coronavirus in China, with epidemics usually excluded from insurance cover, experts said.

While some large global firms buy coverage for communicable diseases, most “standard insurance policies” exclude such outbreaks to keep costs low, said the lawyer, declining to be identified as he was not authorized to speak to the media.

Global insurers typically cover risks such as earthquakes and plane crashes, but have been paring back exposure to certain risks, such as shipping, to avoid huge losses.

Previous viruses, such as SARS, Ebola and Zika, have also led insurers to be more cautious about exposure, with specific virus exclusions added to most basic coverage policies, industry insiders said.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2020, 07:36:24 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #580 on: February 07, 2020, 07:05:02 PM »
Is this it? This must be it. The quarantines, the gloves, the massive handwashing.. that is what hopefully going on.


That would be a miracle. There are still a couple hundreds of thousands villages in China, with a population between a hundred and a few thousand people. These are the places from which plenty people moved to go work in or near the cities. It's to these places these 5 million people went, when they left Wuhan just before the lockdown. There they meet their family and their old friends. Who work in other cities. There was a cluster of 50 infected people in Wuhan for a month. Can you give one reason why there would not be hundreds of these clusters in these villages and towns by now ? And the standard they have in these hospitals over there is much lower. They would probably not even know if it's the flu or Corona. And some of them already went back to work last week.
« Last Edit: February 07, 2020, 08:08:18 PM by Alexander555 »

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #581 on: February 07, 2020, 07:23:16 PM »
An Interview With Li Wenliang, Days Before his Death.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html

Q: When did you first realize that this new virus was highly contagious? It seemed that you hadn’t taken any precautions when you were infected.

A: I knew it when the patient I came in contact with infected her family, and I was infected right afterward. Thus I discovered it was highly contagious. The patient had no symptoms, so I got careless.

...

Q: Why were you so suspicious at that point? Had you already received any news or heard anything?

A: Because there were already patients being treated under quarantine.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #582 on: February 07, 2020, 08:01:55 PM »
Vox
Wonderful reporting - Thanks


I went to my local hospital this morning in Southwestern Ontario Canada for some unrelated tests. There are hand sanitizing stations by each door with posters recommending and explaining their use. Latex gloves and a box of masks for anyone with the "sniffles" were freely available. These have all been in place since SARS hit our area particularly hard.


There are no outward indications that anything is in the offing and the parking lot wasn't overcrowded. BAU although we've had at least 3 cases confirmed within (50km?).


I picked up 2 masks and 2 pairs of gloves for future use & was relieved to see that there was no evidence of hoarding or shortages.



The calm before the storm?
Terry

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #583 on: February 07, 2020, 08:08:40 PM »
^
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #584 on: February 07, 2020, 08:11:07 PM »
looks like all semblance of the truth died 2 days ago . I always doubted the figures , now I'm sure they have abandoned any connection to reality . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #585 on: February 07, 2020, 08:16:26 PM »
I heard this is doubling every five days. That is over a thousand times in fifty days and more than a million in a hundred.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

SteveMDFP

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #586 on: February 07, 2020, 09:06:50 PM »
looks like all semblance of the truth died 2 days ago . I always doubted the figures , now I'm sure they have abandoned any connection to reality . b.c.

It's hard to know what to make of the drop in new cases.  It seems plausible that the extreme control measures in China have actually slowed the spread of the virus.

But the drop coincides closely with the government of China protesting vigorously against the travel restrictions placed on its citizens by other governments.  They might have concluded there was an urgent necessity to start under-counting to prevent economic collapse.

We might possibly get a better grasp of the global spread by looking at numbers of cases *outside* of China.  Many individual nations might egregiously under-report, but those that are open with their data should show whether spread is generally accelerating.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #587 on: February 07, 2020, 11:59:49 PM »
Concerns Mount About Coronavirus Spreading in Hospitals, Study Suggests
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/07/health/coronavirus-hospital-transmissions-study/index.html

A new study shines a spotlight on the possible risk of hospital-related transmissions of the Wuhan coronavirus.

The study, published in the medical journal JAMA on Friday, involved analyzing data on 138 patients hospitalized with novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia in Wuhan, China. The data showed that hospital-related transmissions of the virus were suspected in about 41% of the patients.

Specifically, 40 health care workers in the study and 17 patients who were already hospitalized for other reasons were presumed to have been infected with the novel coronavirus in the hospital, the data showed, also revealing that 26% of all the patients were admitted to an intensive care unit and 4.3% died.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

-----------------------

Novel Coronavirus Infected 40 Staff in Single Wuhan Hospital: Study
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-coronavirus-infected-staff-wuhan-hospital.html

Forty health care workers were infected with the novel coronavirus by patients at a single Wuhan hospital in January, a new study has found, underscoring the risks to those at the frontlines of the growing epidemic.

One patient who was admitted to the surgical department was presumed to have infected 10 health care workers, according to the paper that was authored by doctors at the Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University and published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) on Friday.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

Seventeen patients who were hospitalized for other reasons also became infected by the coronavirus. A total of 138 patients got the virus in a period spanning January 1 to January 28, with hospital-associated transmission accounting for 41 percent of all cases.

Of the 40 infected health care workers in the JAMA study, 31 worked on general wards, seven in the emergency department, and two in the ICU.

The example of the patient presumed to have infected 10 health workers highlighted the high level of danger within hospitals during the first phase of the epidemic, even though overall it is currently estimated that each patient infects on average 2.2 others.

"If true, then this confirms that some patients are likely to be far more infectious than others, and this poses further difficulties in managing their cases," said Michael Head, a global health expert at the University of Southampton said in a comment to the UK's Science Media Centre.

Medical staff at the epicenter of the virus are overstretched and lack sufficient protective gear, the deputy governor of Hubei province admitted Thursday.

----------------------------

Chinese Data Shows 82 Per Cent of Cases are Deemed Mild, WHO Says
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049614/coronavirus-chinese-data-shows-80-cent-cases-are-deemed-mild-who

An initial analysis of 17,000 coronavirus infections in mainland China shows that 82 per cent of the cases are classified as mild and 15 per cent as severe, and that 3 per cent of patients have developed critical symptoms, the World Health Organisation said on Friday.

(... This doesn't seem to jibe with report that you had to be near death before they would test you.????

Maria Van Kerkhove, the technical lead in the world health body’s emergency programme, said the data obtained from Chinese authorities also showed that “2 per cent or less than 2 per cent” of reported cases have resulted in deaths.

-------------------------

Videos Suggest Fear Mounting in Embattled City at Center of Outbreak

Videos posted to Chinese social media purportedly show a large convention center or similar building being used as a quarantine center where the infected lay helpless in close proximity, and confused relatives look on. Some witnesses claim there are no bathrooms, no running water, and even no doctors on hand at the makeshift facility.

Video at: https://mobile.twitter.com/alicedreamss/status/1225659914460119040

When asked who was in charge, a woman in one video replies, "no one is in charge." Outside the building, the sick are seen being turned away or told that once inside, they won't be allowed to leave.

------------------------

File the following under 'I Don't Know, Maybe' ...

On the one hand, Taiwan and mainland China are not the best of friends; on the other, China has a poor track record on transparency. 

If you don't lock screen when doing calculations numbers can change. But the numbers would change very rapidly on screen.

I don't think they had enough test kits during that time period to generate these numbers ...


Tencent May Have Accidentally Leaked Real Data On Wuhan Virus Deaths - Or Not
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3871594

Tencent Briefly Lists 154,023 Infections and 24,589 Deaths From Wuhan Coronavirus

... As early as Jan. 26, netizens were reporting that Tencent, on its webpage titled "Epidemic Situation Tracker," briefly showed data on the novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China that was much higher than official estimates, before suddenly switching to lower numbers. Hiroki Lo, a 38-year-old Taiwanese beverage store owner, that day reported that Tencent and NetEase were both posting "unmodified statistics," before switching to official numbers in short order.

... On late Saturday evening (Feb. 1), the Tencent webpage showed confirmed cases of the Wuhan virus in China as standing at 154,023, 10 times the official figure at the time. It listed the number of suspected cases as 79,808, four times the official figure.

The number of cured cases was only 269, well below the official number that day of 300. Most ominously, the death toll listed was 24,589, vastly higher than the 300 officially listed that day.

Moments later, Tencent updated the numbers to reflect the government's "official" numbers that day. Netizens noticed that Tencent has on at least three occasions posted extremely high numbers, only to quickly lower them to government-approved statistics.


Other images at link

Netizens also noticed that each time the screen with the large numbers appears, a comparison with the previous day's data appears above, which demonstrates a "reasonable" incremental increase, much like the official numbers. This has led some netizens to speculate that Tencent has two sets of data, the real data and "processed" data.

Some are speculating that a coding problem could be causing the real "internal" data to accidentally appear. Others believe that someone behind the scenes is trying to leak the real numbers.

However, the "internal" data held by Beijing may not reflect the true extent of the epidemic. According to multiple sources in Wuhan, many coronavirus patients are unable to receive treatment and die outside of hospitals.

Although some are chalking up the images to users tampering with their browsers, the 154,023 infections on Feb. 1 are remarkably close to the estimate predicted on that date by a scientific modeling study carried out by the University of Hong Kong (HKU) and published on The Lancet website. The study estimates the number of cases is much more given the 2.68 spread rate per case, the doubling of total infections every 6.4 days, and known travel patterns in China and worldwide.

Another strange phenomenon that netizens have noticed is the mortality rate, as the government death tolls are routinely maintaining an exact percentile for days on end. Many noticed that in the early days of reporting, the government put the death rate at 3.1 percent.

Jan. 22: 17 deaths / 542 infections = 3.1 percent
Jan. 23: 26 deaths / 830 infections = 3.1 percent
Jan. 24: 41 deaths / 1,287 infections = 3.1 percent

By late January, the government apparently decided to set the new official mortality rate at 2.1 percent. As can be seen in the image below, the mortality rate was kept at a precise 2.1 percent, regardless of the numbers from Jan. 30 to Feb. 3:



The mortality rates for the numbers briefly shown on Tencent are much higher. The death rate for Jan. 26 was 2,577 deaths out of 15,701 infections, or 16 percent.

The death rate for the Feb. 1 post was 24,589 deaths out of 154,023 infections, which also comes out to 16 percent. The death rates briefly shown are clearly vastly higher than the official percentages and substantially higher than SARS at 9.6 percent, but lower than MERS at 34.5 percent.

A spokesperson for Tencent said the screenshots were fake: “Unfortunately, several social media sources have circulated doctored images of our ‘Epidemic Situation Tracker’ featuring false information which we never published,” the spokesperson said. “Tencent does not condone the dissemination of inaccurate information and fake news especially during this sensitive period. We reserve all legal rights and remedies in this matter.”
« Last Edit: February 08, 2020, 02:50:52 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #588 on: February 08, 2020, 01:35:18 AM »
截至 2020-02-07 15:59 全国数据统计
数据说明
较昨日变化数据:待国家卫健委数据公布中,预计 08:00 左右更新。

34,130 确诊
26,359 疑似
  4,821 重症
     718 死亡
  2,000 治愈

As of 2020-02-07 15:59 National Data System
the data shows
Changes from yesterday: To be announced by the National Health and Medical Commission, it is expected to be updated around 08:00.

34,130 Confirmed
26,359 Suspect
  4,821 Severe
     718 Death
  2,000 Recovered

Johns Hopkins
34,439 Confirmed
     720 Dead
  2,014 Recovered

Sam

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #589 on: February 08, 2020, 01:55:11 AM »
Update:

Global = 34,598
Severe/Critical = 6,101
Deaths = 724

https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia

------------------------------

Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044?guestAccessKey=15d6af10-e59c-4ad9-b172-0a52addceaea&utm_source=silverchair&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=article_alert-jama&utm_content=olf&utm_term=020720

Report offers insights into why early coronavirus cases may have been missed

The infection doesn't tend to cause the sneezing and congestion often associated with being sick.

Fever appears to be a key symptom in how the virus manifests itself in patients.

... Coronaviruses, which cause respiratory infections, usually spread through the droplets that spray out when an infected person sneezes or coughs. This particular virus appears to have spread easily despite an apparent absence of sneezing, and may be a reason it circulated apparently undetected for a period of time.

"One reason for the rapid spread may be related to the atypical symptoms in the early state in some patients," the study authors wrote. That is, people may not have realized they were sick, because they didn't have the sneezing and congestion usually associated with colds.


... Just because you're well on day one or two doesn't mean you'll necessarily be well on day four, five or six.

Patients who developed complications did so about five days after they first started having the symptoms.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #590 on: February 08, 2020, 02:07:15 AM »
From yesterday +6173
34598
confirmed

Don't know where the +6173 comes from, yesterday was showing circa 31211 so increase looks to be about 3400 not 6173.
(30.6k to 34142 is also about 3400)

Edit: Now changed to +3401
« Last Edit: February 08, 2020, 02:12:50 AM by crandles »

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #591 on: February 08, 2020, 02:18:34 AM »
Break time ...

From America's finest news source ...

‘He’s Got The Mulan Virus!’ Yells Don Jr. Attempting To Quarantine Eric By Duct Taping Garbage Bag Over Head
https://politics.theonion.com/he-s-got-the-mulan-virus-yells-don-jr-attempting-to-1841516704/amp

WASHINGTON—Kicking and punching his brother in an effort to fight the “Germans” [sic] that were swarming all over his sibling’s body, Donald Trump Jr. reportedly yelled, “He’s got the Mulan virus!” Thursday while attempting to quarantine Eric Trump by duct taping a garbage bag over his brother’s head. “Oh my God, ew, ew, ew! Eric, do you have the Mulan Virus?” said a horrified Don Jr., who, after sticking his hand into his brother’s mouth to take his temperature, screamed and immediately sprayed an “antelope” [sic] of Lysol down Eric’s throat.

“If you don’t fight the Mulan virus soon, you could invest [sic] everyone and start a worldwide academic [sic]. Seriously! Okay, now just stay still while I put a bag over my own head.” At press time, Don Jr. was attempting to create some air holes for his younger brother by repeatedly stabbing the garbage bag with a compass.

« Last Edit: February 08, 2020, 02:43:12 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #592 on: February 08, 2020, 03:08:16 AM »
Back to work ...

3 New Infections On Board Cruise Ship in Japan, Bringing Total to 64
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3049629/coronavirus-three-new-infections-board-cruise-ship-japan

Three more people on a cruise ship quarantined in Yokohama have tested positive for the new coronavirus, the health ministry said Saturday, bringing the total number of people from the vessel infected to 64.

Kyodo News reported, citing the health ministry, that the three new cases include two Americans and one Chinese national

The new cases came a day after Japan confirmed on Friday 41 people tested positive for the coronavirus, as thousands of passengers remained confined to their cabins, only allowed on deck briefly for fresh air.

About 3,700 people are on board the Diamond Princess, which usually has a crew of 1,100 and a passenger capacity of 2,670.

The Princess Cruise website describes the ship as “your home away from home” and it will remain so for most passengers at least until February 21.

On board, passengers were finding out about the new infections from the internet before they were announced on the ship, said a Hong Kong man, who declined to be identified.


Welcome to your 'forever home'

---------------------------

On Cruise Ship Quarantined In Japan, Any New Cases Would Reset The Isolation Clock
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/07/803843303/on-cruise-ship-quarantined-in-japan-any-new-cases-would-reset-the-isolation-cloc

People who are quarantined aboard the Diamond Princess in Japan have been wondering how long their isolation would last. On Friday, a health official gave an answer they might not like: the quarantine will be extended every time a new case of the Wuhan coronavirus is confirmed on the ship.

... To detect any new cases aboard the ship, the crew has distributed thermometers to passengers so they can monitor themselves

... Japan’s health ministry said it does not currently have plans to test everyone on board.

“Our current policy is to test passengers if the symptoms of the virus appear,” a Japanese government official who was not authorized to be named told reporters late Friday. “And in addition, we will test those at high risk, meaning who had close contacts with them.”

... Growing desperate after days of being cooped up, Vana Mendizabal, 69, suddenly realized: What if her only escape route from the ship and the mandatory 14-day quarantine would be to come down with the virus? ... Her travel insurance won’t arrange an evacuation unless she falls ill.

------------------------

... Last thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back to the place I was before
'Relax' said the night man,
'We are programmed to receive.
You can check out any time you like,
But you can never leave!'

- Hotel California   


----------------------------

Another cruise ship, the Westerdam, is at sea, and its crew is unsure where to go next, after being denied entry to the Philippines, Japan and South Korea. Passengers blame an ill-advised port stop in Hong Kong, where the boat took on many new passengers.

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20200208_15/amp.html

------------------------

Norwegian Cruise Line Announces It, Too, Will Keep Chinese Passport-Holders Off Its Ships

(Washington Post) - The parent company of Norwegian Cruise Line became the latest cruise operator to ban Chinese nationals from sailing late Friday.

“Any guest that holds a Chinese, Hong Kong or Macau passport will be unable to board any of our ships, regardless of residency,” the company, which also owns Oceania Cruises and Regent Seven Seas Cruises, said in a travel alert.

... The announcement followed a similar one by Royal Caribbean Cruises, the world’s second-largest cruise operator. The company, whose lines include Royal Caribbean International and Celebrity Cruises, put the policy in place Thursday, chief communications officer Rob Zeiger said.
« Last Edit: February 08, 2020, 10:04:31 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #593 on: February 08, 2020, 03:56:26 AM »
Update:

截至 2020-02-07 17:33 全国数据统计
数据说明

34,598 确诊 + 3,401 较昨日
27,657 疑似 + 4,214 较昨日
  6,101 重症 + 1,280 较昨日
     723 死亡 +      86 较昨日
  2,052 治愈 +    510 较昨日

As of 2020-02-07 17:33 National Statistics
the data shows

34,598 Confirmed + 3,401 compared to yesterday
27,657 Suspected + 4,214 compared to yesterday
  6,101 Severe      + 1,280 compared to yesterday
     723 Deaths      +     86 compared to yesterday
  2,052 Recovered +   510 compared to yesterday


Johns Hopkins
34,831 Confirmed
    723 Dead
 2,063 Recovered

It is important to remember that these numbers are hospital admissions. It is also important to note that the confirmed numbers may be limited by the testing delays. And it is especially important to remember that temporarily, each of these numbers represents populations (cohorts) that start at differing points in time. We have crude estimates of what those are. We do not have confirmation of that. And to further complicate issues, the timeframes are not fixed, but rather each are instead distributions. We do not have good data on what those distributions look like. They are likely to be close to log normal in character. But we do not know what they actually look like.

We have estimates that it takes 1-3 days from admission on average to be tested and hence confirmed. We have estimates that the average time to death from confirmation is about 5.9 days. But, that has a brand distribution. We also have estimates that it takes an additional 3-9 days to confirm a person as recovered. That number is much less certain.

Since the growth is exponential in the number of patients, it is essential to know these parameters to estimate the lethality of the disease. But that isn't enough. We need to know how that works in terms of age, gender and other factors.

Alternatively and better, we need a case study of a broad cross section of people to identify what the ultimate outcomes are.

At the moment, it appears (and -only- appears) that there are a large number of people who have limited symptoms and do not report to hospital. As a result, it appears that the lethality of the virus is likely about 4% as measured on the whole population infected. It may be more. It may be less. It is clear that the disease predominantly kills people over 55 years of age, and predominantly males (70%).

We now have indications of several treatments that seem to either be effective or that help.

Key among these are:
1) Oseltamivir combined with HIV drugs Lopinavir and Ritonavir
2) Remdesivir
3) Galidesivir (? speculative ?)
4) Herbal combinations of extracts of Forsythia, Scute, and Lonicera
5) Others...

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/characterstics-of-nCoV-patients-Wuhan-Lancet-1-29-2020.pdf

Etc...

Sam

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #594 on: February 08, 2020, 05:31:36 AM »
It is important to remember that these numbers are hospital admissions. It is also important to note that the confirmed numbers may be limited by the testing delays. And it is especially important to remember that temporarily, each of these numbers represents populations (cohorts) that start at differing points in time. We have crude estimates of what those are. We do not have confirmation of that. And to further complicate issues, the timeframes are not fixed, but rather each are instead distributions. We do not have good data on what those distributions look like. They are likely to be close to log normal in character. But we do not know what they actually look like.

We have estimates that it takes 1-3 days from admission on average to be tested and hence confirmed. We have estimates that the average time to death from confirmation is about 5.9 days. But, that has a brand distribution. We also have estimates that it takes an additional 3-9 days to confirm a person as recovered. That number is much less certain.

Since the growth is exponential in the number of patients, it is essential to know these parameters to estimate the lethality of the disease. But that isn't enough. We need to know how that works in terms of age, gender and other factors.

Alternatively and better, we need a case study of a broad cross section of people to identify what the ultimate outcomes are.

At the moment, it appears (and -only- appears) that there are a large number of people who have limited symptoms and do not report to hospital. As a result, it appears that the lethality of the virus is likely about 4% as measured on the whole population infected. It may be more. It may be less. It is clear that the disease predominantly kills people over 55 years of age, and predominantly males (70%). ...

Sam
Excellent analysis Sam

The visual analogy of what your describing brings to mind an aggregate depletion curve of a field of fracking wells. Each individual has a fast rise (an acute phase) followed by a long tail (a convalescent phase). When summed together you get something like this ...

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #595 on: February 08, 2020, 05:55:22 AM »
Hong Kong Government Scrambles to Buy More Masks After Revealing It Only Has 12 Million Left
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3049631/hong-kong-government-goes-global-search-face

The Hong Kong government is scrambling to buy more face masks after revealing it only has 12 million left, enough for3-4 weeks, as the battle against the deadly coronavirus outbreak continues.

That number includes 3 million pieces set aside to cover the needs of government departments, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau said.

University of Hong Kong medical expert Ho Pak-leung has previously estimated that Hong Kong could consume 300 million masks a month during the epidemic

... Private doctors have said they were also running low, and at least 15 private clinics have had to close, while a doctors’ association warned 400 more could run out in the next two weeks.


Priority would be given to health workers, frontline personnel who provided services to the public, and members of the public and staff in quarantine centres.

Finance minister says government has ordered 48 million more

Government approached 400 suppliers in about 20 countries in bid to source more masks.

-----------------------------

12 days ago

... The authority has said there are enough stocks of masks in public hospitals for at least three months
.

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg246662.html#msg246662

-----------------------------

American Citizen Dies in Wuhan, NYT Says: Virus Update

An American citizen has died in Wuhan from the coronavirus outbreak, the New York Times reported.

The person died on Thursday, the paper said, citing a U.S. embassy statement. The death toll from the outbreak is inching closer to the total from SARS and may surpass the threshold today or tomorrow if the disease continues to kill people at its current pace.

-----------------------

Japan Says Citizen Suspected of Coronavirus Dies in Wuhan (12:20 p.m. HK)

A Japanese man suspected to have been been infected with the new coronavirus died in a Wuhan hospital, Japan’s foreign ministry said.

The cause of death was stated as viral pneumonia as it’s been difficult to conclude definitively that he had the virus, though there was a high suspicion that he contracted it, the ministry said in a statement Saturday, citing Chinese authorities. The man was in his 60s.

-------------------------------

Medical Supply Chain From China Unaffected (3:30 p.m. NY)

The coronavirus hasn’t led to any disruptions in the U.S. in the supply chain of medical and protective gear, much of which is made in China, officials from President Donald Trump’s task force said at a briefing Friday where they updated the public on progress.

(... they can lie as well as Beijing)

-----------------------------

Coronavirus Puts a Bump in China’s Belt and Road Investment Plan
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3049564/coronavirus-puts-bump-chinas-belt-and-road-investment-plan

Major projects under Beijing’s multibillion-dollar infrastructure development scheme held up as Chinese workers face obstacles getting back into Pakistan, Bangladesh

But deadly virus unlikely to derail China’s connectivity ambitions, as host nations need its money too much, observers say



-----------------------------

Communist Party Sends Senior Cadres to Wuhan Amid Rising Anger
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049623/coronavirus-hubei-province-reports-81-new-deaths-and-2841

The former party secretary of Wuhan – the provincial capital of Hubei – and a deputy head of the National Health Commission are taking charge of the local anti-epidemic campaign, as large numbers of patients remain untreated and local officials face a storm of criticism, according to Chinese media.

... The dispatch of the two senior cadres to Wuhan followed the announcement on Friday that the ruling Communist Party’s top anti-corruption body was sending investigators to the city to probe issues relating to whistle-blower doctor Li Wenliang, who died of the coronavirus.

“At present, Hubei province and Wuhan city may not only need more medical workers and various materials, but also need to strengthen the organisational power, people who can judge accurately, make decisive decisions, and implement quickly,” Taoran Notes said.

----------------------------

Kenya to Bring Its Wuhan Students Home and Urges Ethiopia To Suspend China Flights
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049618/coronavirus-kenya-bring-its-wuhan-students-home-and-urges

President Uhuru Kenyatta says students who want to be repatriated must undergo a mandatory 14-day quarantine in Kenya

Urging Ethiopia to halt China flights ‘is about protecting our citizens from the risk of infection’, Kenyatta says

-----------------------------

India Is Monitoring More Than 6,000 People With China Travel History

NEW DELHI — India is gearing up for a protracted fight against the spread of coronavirus, monitoring more than 6,000 people with a recent history of travel to China and identifying enough isolation facilities to “manage any outbreak,” the country’s health minister said Friday.

Health Minister Harsh Vardhan said 1,305 samples have been tested for the virus. Of those, 1,282 were negative, 20 tests are still in progress, and three samples came back positive. The positive cases are from three different cities in the southern state of Kerala and involve people who were recently in Wuhan.

Vardhan said India has 12 laboratories capable of testing for the virus, and the government has offered help to other countries in the region, including Afghanistan, Bhutan and Maldives.

Population of India = 1.2 Billion
« Last Edit: February 08, 2020, 10:17:01 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #596 on: February 08, 2020, 08:01:43 AM »
Excellent analysis Sam

The visual analogy of what your describing brings to mind an aggregate depletion curve of a field of fracking wells. Each individual has a fast rise (an acute phase) followed by a long tail (a convalescent phase). When summed together you get something like this ...



Vox_mundi,

Thank you. What an excellent graphic example. Thank you for sharing that. Each colored stripe is indeed quite like the cohorts of people infected by the virus at any given time. As these tails flow to the right they narrow as people either recover or die, in much the same way that the wells decline in volume. The curve shapes aren’t quite right, but the general idea is exactly right. To actually calculate the fatality rate, what is needed is the data for each stripe - a) the numbers infected -> b) the number that need critical care and go to hospital -> c) those then that are suspected of being infected -> d) those confirmed -> e) those who become severe -> f) those who die -> g) those who recover.

These don’t happen all at defined times. There are distributions for each phase which overlap down the stripe in time to the right. Once everyone in a stripe either recovers or dies, the calculation can be made. But since the deaths and recoveries occur so much later that when people are confirmed to be sick with the nCoV virus, and since the number of those infected is growing exponentially (adding new stripes), it is all too easy to grab incomplete data like the current totals of confirmed and dead and from those to wrongly calculate the fatality rates.

Once we have a bit better data, we can use the exponential equations to better estimate what the actual rates are.

However, all of that is subject to a whole lot of assumptions. Among those are assumptions that the data is sufficiently complete to make good estimates. There are both intentional and inadvertent factors that can make those assumptions very wrong.

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #597 on: February 08, 2020, 10:09:34 AM »
United Arab Emirates confirms 2 new cases
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/08/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-hubei-wuhan.html

The UAE Ministry of Health and Prevention confirmed two new cases of the new coronavirus, bringing the total number of cases in the country to seven. The ministry said the cases involve people of Chinese and Filipino nationalities.
https://mobile.twitter.com/mohapuae/status/1226038198255702016

-------------------------------

Thailand reports 7 new cases

Thailand’s health ministry confirmed seven additional cases of the new coronavirus, according to a Reuters report. The cases include three Thais and four Chinese, the report said.

Reuters reported that Suwannachai Wattanayingcharoenchai, director-general of the Disease Control Department, said one of the Thais was a person who had been evacuated from Wuhan, while the other two had been exposed to tourists.

------------------------------

Hong Kong government agencies temporarily pare back operations

On Saturday, many Hong Kong government agencies announced they would temporarily scale down office hours and services, citing efforts to limit spread of the new coronavirus. Most adjustments will take effect Monday as agencies try to continue basic, if limited, operations. The Inland Revenue Service and Labour Department are among the agencies that have announced special arrangements.

The Judiciary said all hearings that had been scheduled from Feb. 10 to Feb. 16 will be generally adjourned until a date that has not been set. It said, however, the courts will continue to handle “urgent and essential” matters.

------------------------------

Megacities Put Up Coronavirus Entry Barriers as China Goes Back To Work
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3049641/megacities-put-coronavirus-entry-barriers-china-goes-back

Two megacities in China’s southern manufacturing heartland have imposed partial lockdowns, with tight entry restrictions to control the spread of a coronavirus as the country goes back to work.

But unlike in Wuhan and other Hubei cities at the centre of the outbreak, authorities in Guangzhou (15 million) and Shenzhen (13 million) are allowing people to leave the jurisdictions.

... Under the new rules, people now need passes and to go through temperature checks to enter and leave residential compounds

A day earlier, Tianjin, which neighbours Beijing and has more than 9,000 people in quarantine, became the first municipality in the country to restrict entry. Partial lockdowns are also in effect in major cities including Nanjing in Jiangsu province, Zhengzhou in Henan province, and Hangzhou in Zhejiang province.

With 1,075 confirmed cases by the end of Friday, Guangdong has overtaken Zhejiang as the province with the highest number of coronavirus cases outside Hubei.

------------------------------
« Last Edit: February 08, 2020, 10:28:09 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #598 on: February 08, 2020, 10:17:55 AM »
Update:

截至 2020-02-07 17:33 全国数据统计
数据说明

34,598 确诊 + 3,401 较昨日
27,657 疑似 + 4,214 较昨日
  6,101 重症 + 1,280 较昨日
     723 死亡 +      86 较昨日
  2,052 治愈 +    510 较昨日

As of 2020-02-07 17:33 National Statistics
the data shows

34,598 Confirmed + 3,401 compared to yesterday
27,657 Suspected + 4,214 compared to yesterday
  6,101 Severe      + 1,280 compared to yesterday
     723 Deaths      +     86 compared to yesterday
  2,052 Recovered +   510 compared to yesterday


Johns Hopkins
34,831 Confirmed
    723 Dead
 2,063 Recovered

It is important to remember that these numbers are hospital admissions. It is also important to note that the confirmed numbers may be limited by the testing delays. And it is especially important to remember that temporarily, each of these numbers represents populations (cohorts) that start at differing points in time. We have crude estimates of what those are. We do not have confirmation of that. And to further complicate issues, the timeframes are not fixed, but rather each are instead distributions. We do not have good data on what those distributions look like. They are likely to be close to log normal in character. But we do not know what they actually look like.

We have estimates that it takes 1-3 days from admission on average to be tested and hence confirmed. We have estimates that the average time to death from confirmation is about 5.9 days. But, that has a brand distribution. We also have estimates that it takes an additional 3-9 days to confirm a person as recovered. That number is much less certain.

Since the growth is exponential in the number of patients, it is essential to know these parameters to estimate the lethality of the disease. But that isn't enough. We need to know how that works in terms of age, gender and other factors.

Alternatively and better, we need a case study of a broad cross section of people to identify what the ultimate outcomes are.

At the moment, it appears (and -only- appears) that there are a large number of people who have limited symptoms and do not report to hospital. As a result, it appears that the lethality of the virus is likely about 4% as measured on the whole population infected. It may be more. It may be less. It is clear that the disease predominantly kills people over 55 years of age, and predominantly males (70%).

We now have indications of several treatments that seem to either be effective or that help.

Key among these are:
1) Oseltamivir combined with HIV drugs Lopinavir and Ritonavir
2) Remdesivir
3) Galidesivir (? speculative ?)
4) Herbal combinations of extracts of Forsythia, Scute, and Lonicera
5) Others...

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/characterstics-of-nCoV-patients-Wuhan-Lancet-1-29-2020.pdf

Etc...

Sam
Mortality is again 2.1%

I wonder if we can trust the official figures at all?

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #599 on: February 08, 2020, 11:26:32 AM »
bluice: I don't trust the figures myself.

From the Generational Dynamics forum:
This is from a Chinese correspondent, so it is hearsay. Take it for what it is worth:
Quote
"Latest coronavirus tally:
> https://multimedia.scmp.com/widgets/china/wuhanvirus/

> My wife and I are under voluntary 14-day quarantine in
> California... so to say the least, I have been following the topic
> very closely.

> The South China Morning Post (SCMP.com) in Hong Kong has been the
> source of most of my information.
> (https://www.scmp.com/topics/coronavirus-outbreak-all-stories)

> You can usually get more up-to-date information about every 4-6
> hours there. Japanese newspapers also are interesting sources. An
> Israeli source mentioned that Wuhan is a center of China's
> biological warfare research.
> (https://www.ccn.com/israeli-analyst-one-coronavirus-conspiracy-theory-less-crazy-than-you-think/)

> Pandemic vs. Contained Epidemic?
> https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/beast-moving-very-fast-will-new-coronavirus-be-contained-or-go-pandemic

> 1. It has *almost* confirmed that the virus is asymptomatically
> transmitted. Bad! Many articles allude to this, but the Tinajin
> and Singapore meeting cases seem to confirm it.
> https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048958/5-coronavirus-cases-traced-chinese-department-store-who-was

> 2. My brother-in-law is a public bus driver in Xi'an. He is
> supposed to go back to work on Monday. He, as well as all who
> provide transportation such as taxi drivers, has been instructed
> to see the national ID card of every boarding passenger. Anybody
> from Wuhan is not allowed on the bus.

> 3. China is providing all the medical care to patients "free of
> charge" according to my Chinese wife. If that happens in practice
> is yet to be seen.

> 4. In the housing communities throughout Xi'an, as well as in much
> of the more restricted areas of China, each house can send only
> one person to a market every other day. There are some that can go
> only once every three days. My wife's family is on an
> every-other-day basis.

> 5. The United States, through the Trump administration, first
> offered aid to China on January 6, while Beijing was still in full
> denial.
> https://www.eutimes.net/2020/01/china-refuses-us-aid-in-fight-against-coronavirus/

> 6. The way the CDC allowed a very sick person on my wife's plane
> to travel from Shanghai to SFO, totally on the basis of lies and
> deception, means there may already be thousands of cases here in
> the United States yet to appear.

> On that last point, one must remember that many of the Chinese
> that came over here initially came over illegally, then obtained a
> green card through deception. The last thing they will want to
> voluntarily admit is "I had been to Wuhan." Under the current set
> of fears the Trump administration has given the immigrant
> communities here in America, nobody knows what is coming down the
> pike that may cause deportation. Another thing is this: Even
> illegal aliens get better medical care in America than the Chinese
> may get back in China, especially if they got their green card a
> decade ago based on a persecution claim. Another common problem in
> America is that up until recently, many Chinese green card holders
> were doing illegal work, so everything was paid
> under-the-table. They could be filthy rich compared to most
> Americans, but because of using the underground economy, they
> qualified for food stamps, MediCal, housing subsidies, and all
> kinds of things. If they went to China, then came back sick, they
> would get medical treatment, but at the same time their income
> would be examined.

> Because of that, if that coughing woman that sat in the row behind
> my wife had the coronavirus, not only might both my wife and I
> might have been infected, but also every person that woman has
> been around during and after that flight. Multiply that by all the
> number of flights and potential people trying to flee China right
> now, and we may already have thousands of walking infected people
> at this point.

> The CDC is wrong to assume simple questionnaires of passengers
> that show no symptoms at the time of going past transit points
> will catch most cases. Furthermore, you and I know that it would
> be politically incorrect to call Chinese liars."
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS