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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 67

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 195166 times)

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6750 on: May 23, 2020, 11:44:51 AM »
These are the reasons why nations should wrestle deaths away from C19 and not just give up the fight:

Oxford COVID-19 vaccine to begin phase II/III human trials


http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-05-22-oxford-covid-19-vaccine-begin-phase-iiiii-human-trials


Convalescent plasma treatment of severe COVID-19: A matched control study


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.20.20102236v1

Quote
. Conclusions Convalescent plasma transfusion is a potentially efficacious treatment option for patients hospitalized with COVID-19; however, these data suggest that non-intubated patients may benefit more than those requiring mechanical ventilation.


Vitamin-D and COVID-19: do deficient risk a poorer outcome?

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/article/PIIS2213-8587(20)30183-2/fulltext

Quote
Martineau is pragmatic: “At best vitamin D deficiency will only be one of many factors involved in determining outcome of COVID-19, but it's a problem that could be corrected safely and cheaply; there is no downside to speak of, and good reason to think there might be a benefit”.


There is every reason to expect treatment to keep improving. Social distancing, hand hygiene, indoor masking and contact tracing should be enough to keep the numbers down while it is warm. By the time fall gets here a combination of vaccines and improved treatments might be enough to avoid a second wave altogether.
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Jim Hunt

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6751 on: May 23, 2020, 12:30:26 PM »
Ken Rice has got (one of) the open sourced Imperial College model(s) working:

https://andthentheresphysics.wordpress.com/2020/05/16/the-imperial-college-code/

Regarding the UK he concludes:

Quote
Almost 30000 fewer [deaths] if lockdown had started a week earlier.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6752 on: May 23, 2020, 12:37:52 PM »
Another Large Study Finds No Benefit to Hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/ncna1212886

Hydroxychloroquine does not help COVID-19 patients, and indeed may increase deaths, according to a large, international study published Friday in The Lancet.

http://www.thelancet-press.com/embargo/hydroxychloroquine.pdf

The new study, led by investigators at Brigham and Women's Hospital Center in Boston, included data from 671 hospitals on six continents.

Researchers compared the outcomes of nearly 15,000 COVID-19 patients received the drug or a similar compound, chloroquine, plus an antibiotic with those of about 81,000 COVID-19 patients who had not received the drugs. It was an observational study, meaning patients were not randomized to get a particular drug or a placebo.

"We were unable to confirm a benefit of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine, when used alone or with" an antibiotic, the study authors wrote. What's more, the patients who got the drugs were more likely than the others to die in the hospital.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6753 on: May 23, 2020, 01:41:18 PM »
Preventing 'Cytokine Storm' May Ease Severe COVID-19 Symptoms
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-cytokine-storm-ease-severe-covid-.html

... Their treatment, a common type of prescription drug called prazosin, sold under the brand name Minipress, an alpha blocker, might break a cycle of hyperinflammation before it ramps up, their findings from mouse studies and a recent analysis of medical claims data suggest.

"The approach we're advocating involves treating people who are at high risk early in the course of the disease, when you know they're infected but before they have severe symptoms," says Vogelstein. If the trial's results suggest the drug is safe and effective against COVID-19, it could potentially help many people recover safely at home and lessen the strain on hospital resources, he says.

---------------------------------

High-Dose Vitamin D Supplementation Has No Current Benefit In Preventing or Treating COVID-19
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-high-dose-vitamin-d-supplementation-current.html

---------------------------------------

Combining Remdesivir With Other Meds Could Boost COVID-Fighting Power
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-combining-remdesivir-meds-boost-covid-fighting.html

------------------------------------

Italy Virus Death Toll Could Be 19,000 Higher Than Reported: Agency
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-italy-virus-death-toll-higher.html

Italy's death toll from the novel coronavirus in March and April could be nearly 19,000 higher than the official figure of 32,000, the national social security agency said Thursday.

The Istituto Nazionale della Previdenza Sociale (INPS), the largest social security and welfare institute in Italy, said in a new study that the official death figures were not "reliable".

Its study showed that 156,42 total deaths were recorded in Italy in March and April, which is 46,909 higher than the average number of fatalities in those months recorded between 2015 and 2019.

But only 27,938 deaths linked to coronavirus were reported during that period by the Civil Protection Agency, whose toll forms the basis of national statistics, the INPS said.

That meant there were 18,971 more deaths than normal during this period, with the vast majority of 18,412 recorded in the coronavirus-ravaged north of the country.

"Given the fact that the number of deaths is quite stable in these times, we can—with necessary caution—attribute a large portion of these deaths during these past two months to the epidemic," the INPS said.

It added that the increase in deaths was likely not only due to the disease, but from people suffering from other illnesses unable to get healthcare due to hospitals being overwhelmed by the coronavirus pandemic.

As of Friday, the pandemic has claimed 32,486 deaths in Italy, of which 26,715 have been in Lombardy alone—Europe's worst affected region.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

cognitivebias2

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6754 on: May 23, 2020, 03:12:53 PM »
She didn't predict that. She said it was possible, but there is no way of telling, because there are still so many unknowns, on so many levels.

Qusetion (paraphrased): Do you have an IFR estimate?

Answer:"I think the epidemic has largely come and gone in this country, so it would be definitely less than 1/1000, probably closer to 1/10000."

You see the 'I think'? And can you post everything she says in that particular segment, instead of minequoting?

What's the problem with a lower IFR? Why does it have to be maximized? The data is still very incomplete and possibly faulty. That's why there's a lot of pushback from serious scientists, and I can guarantee you they aren't white supremacist Trumputin conspiracy theorists.

I suppose I should take her seriously but not literally? 

This conversation has gotten quite ridiculous.  You accuse everyone of inflating the severity of this crisis, then you promote sources that do the opposite. 

IFR is very likely greater than 0.5.  A much lower IFR means a different policy response is warranted.  Promoting a much lower IFR than reality corresponds to promoting, above honest appraisal, a policy response that is appropriate for that lower IFR.


gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6755 on: May 23, 2020, 06:31:44 PM »
World...
5.3 million cases so far, increasing at 100k per day,
0.34 million dead, 5,000 new deaths per day.

UK study said that 17% of Londoners had antibodies, 5% of rest of the population had antibodies.
i.e. in the UK only 1 in 14 people with proven exposure.

People starting to be on the move again.
Hospital staff are holding their breath.

Carelessness costs lives?
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Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6756 on: May 23, 2020, 10:22:53 PM »
I think there is only one place on the planet that has seen a glimp of the real face of COVID-19. And that's Wuhan. All the rest only has seen some kind of baby COVID-19. And i remember a you-tube movie that was showing 28 bodies outside of houses waiting to be picked up, on a piece of street maybe a couple hundred yards long. In the care-home in my neighbourhood more elderly died than in Qatar and Singapore together. And here it only started half way march, that's almost after the winter.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6757 on: May 23, 2020, 10:31:53 PM »
Some Countries Are Hardly Testing for COVID-19 At All
https://www.axios.com/poor-countries-coronavirus-testing-d60610b5-52c4-4a42-96ce-4f603bd8bcec.html



Coronavirus testing is barely scratching the surface in much of the developing world.

By the numbers: Americans are more than 200 times as likely to have been tested as people in countries like Nigeria and Somalia, according to data compiled by the International Rescue Committee (IRC).

The lack of tests in many poorer countries can be attributed to political dysfunction, poor infrastructure and shortages of testing kits and lab capacity.

Big proportions of tests are coming back positive in countries like Somalia (45%), Afghanistan (30%), Chad (29%) and Mexico (29%), suggesting many cases remain undetected. Roughly 15% of tests in the U.S. and 6% in Germany return positive results.

In the Democratic Republic of Congo, Miliband notes, samples have to be transported to labs in Kinshasa. That's no easy task in a country where very few cities are connected to the capital by road.

In Yemen, Tanzania, Northeast Syria and even Nigeria, which is home to 200 million people, so little testing is being conducted that the available data is of limited value.

"We've got countries where there are hardly any tests going on at all," Miliband says, "and we've got countries in South Asia where we're getting enough testing to be very worried."

In Pakistan, he notes, it took 45 days to reach 5,000 cases, but just two more for the tally to double to 10,000.

It's far cheaper to prevent outbreaks from spreading within countries than to respond to massive outbreaks later — particularly given the risk they could spread around the world.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6758 on: May 23, 2020, 11:19:01 PM »
Trump Lashes Out At the Scientists Whose Findings Contradict Him
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/trump-lashes-scientists-findings-contradict-200522135430191.html

The US president called one study "a Trump enemy statement"; another "a political hit job".

Twice this week, Trump has not only dismissed the findings of studies but suggested - without evidence - that their authors were motivated by politics and to undermine his efforts to roll back coronavirus restrictions.



... Trump has long been sceptical of mainstream science - dismissing human-made climate change as a "hoax", suggesting that noise from wind turbines causes cancer and claiming that exercise can deplete a body's finite amount of energy. It is part of a larger scepticism of expertise and backlash against "elites" that has become increasingly popular among Trump's conservative base.

But undermining Americans' trust in the integrity and objectivity of scientists is especially dangerous during a pandemic when the public is relying on its leaders to develop policies based on the best available information ...

"If the president is politicising science, if he's discounting health experts, then the public is going to be fearful and confused," Gostin said, calling it "dismaying".

... Asked this week what evidence he had that hydroxychloroquine was effective in preventing COVID-19, Trump responded: "Are you ready? Here's my evidence: I get a lot of positive calls about it."

Trump's criticism of the studies comes as his allies have been eager to counter messages from public health experts who say the president is putting lives at risk by pushing states to quickly reopen in an election year.

Republican political operatives have been recruiting pro-Trump doctors to go on television to advocate for reviving the US economy as quickly as possible, without waiting to meet federal safety benchmarks.

... "I think there are real dangers," Gostin said, "for the president to play scientist and doctor on TV."

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6759 on: May 23, 2020, 11:50:57 PM »
Brazil Surges to Second Place In Covid-19 Cases Worldwide
https://amp.france24.com/en/20200523-brazil-s-total-covid-19-cases-surpass-330-000-as-who-calls-south-america-a-new-epicenter



Brazil overtook Russia Friday as the country with the second-highest number of coronavirus infections worldwide behind the United States, as the Americas emerged as a new epicenter of the pandemic.

The South American country has now registered 330,890 infections and 21,048 deaths from the new coronavirus, though experts say under-testing means the real figures may be 15 times higher or more.

Brazil's death toll rose by 1,001 in 24 hours, the third time in four days it has come in over 1,000.



But the crisis is not expected to peak in Brazil until June.

---------------------------------

More Than 40 Diagnosed With COVID-19 After Frankfurt Church Service
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/brazil-world-highest-coronavirus-cases-live-updates-200522235119619.html

More than 40 people have tested positive for the novel coronavirus following a church service in Frankfurt, Germany's financial centre, earlier this month, the head of the city's health department told a news agency.

"Most of them are not seriously ill. As far as we know only one person has been admitted to hospital," Rene Gottschalk told the dpa agency.

The service took place on May 10 at a Baptist church, the department's deputy chief Antoni Walczok told local newspaper Frankfurter Rundschau.

"The situation is very dynamic," Walczok told the paper, adding the church did not violate official guidelines aimed at containing the spread of the virus.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6760 on: May 24, 2020, 01:03:56 AM »


-------------------------------------

According to the most updated information, and under CDC’s “best estimate about viral transmission and disease severity in the United States,” the agency believes that 35 per cent of people infected by the coronavirus show no symptoms – but are nonetheless capable of spreading the virus.

The agency also noted that 40 per cent of coronavirus transmissions occur before people get sick.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6761 on: May 24, 2020, 04:35:16 AM »


New York Times covers front page with 1,000 Covid-19 death notices

The New York Times has filled the entire front page of Sunday’s paper with the death notices of victims from across the country.

--------------------------------------

Trump Plays Golf at His Virginia Club as U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Nears 100,000
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/05/trump-plays-golf-virginia-club-coronavirus-deaths-rise.amp

On a day when the number of deaths in the United States from the coronavirus got close to reaching the 100,000-mark, the presidential motorcade arrived at the Sterling club at 10:27 a.m. Reporters at the scene noted that while Secret Service members were all wearing masks, Trump and his golfing buddies went mask free. Footage from the golf outing appeared to show Trump riding in his golf cart by himself without a caddy. And there were at least some exceptions to social distancing rules as Trump could be seen patting another golfer on the shoulder at one point.

Trump’s lack of golf has clearly been on his mind lately. “I’d really like to play golf but it’s too busy right now,” he told reporters earlier this month. He also called into a PGA golf program on NBC last weekend and talked about how much he yearned for the sport. “I do miss it. I haven’t played, really, since this problem that we have started. I haven’t been able to play golf for a while. I’ve been very busy, and I think that it’s just one of those things, but we’re getting back to normal,” Trump said.

Andrew Kaczynski posted a clip on Twitter of Trump calling into Fox and Friends to complain Obama was playing golf when there were a whopping two cases of Ebola in the United States.

https://mobile.twitter.com/KFILE/status/1264224632976150529

----------------------------------------

« Last Edit: May 24, 2020, 04:44:37 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6762 on: May 24, 2020, 08:47:16 AM »
Cholera Riots refers to civil disturbances associated with an outbreak or epidemic of cholera.

<Long quote removed. How are mostly 19th century riots relevant here? kassy>

Link >> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cholera_Riots
« Last Edit: May 24, 2020, 02:06:30 PM by kassy »
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wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6763 on: May 24, 2020, 03:33:08 PM »
Thanks, blum. I hadn't heard of cholera riots...something to add to my possible course on language and disease.

Meanwhile:

The numbers are in — and the rich are making out like bandits during this pandemic

Quote
...analysis of Federal Reserve data shows a record flow of greenbacks let the corporate rich pour trillions of dollars into their accounts as they fired tens of millions.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/the-numbers-are-in-and-the-rich-are-making-out-like-bandits-during-this-pandemic/
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6764 on: May 24, 2020, 04:27:35 PM »
How are mostly 19th century riots relevant here? kassy>

We see history repeating, Kassy. Conspiracy theories, irrational believes due to lag of knowledge, the ones doing the right things are getting smeared and blamed, politicians don't let a good crisis go to waste, etc. Then and now.

The parallels are uncanny.
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wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6765 on: May 24, 2020, 06:06:15 PM »
Crumbs for the Hungry but Windfalls for the Rich

Billions are going to zillionaires under the guise of pandemic relief.


https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/23/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-economic-response.html
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6766 on: May 24, 2020, 08:04:16 PM »
The saddest part is that all that money could have gone to save lives and the economy.  Instead, they waste it in inefficient enterprises that will now spend it in inefficient ways. If it was given to the people it would have been spent where it was needed the most.
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"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning S. Poelsma
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Jim Hunt

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6768 on: May 25, 2020, 04:44:42 PM »
Hot off assorted presses here in the UK, Boris Johnson's "aide" Dominic Cummings is in hot water for breaching lockdown several times:

https://CoV-eHealth.org/2020/05/25/uk-covid-19-messaging-episode-2/

Meanwhile up the M5 motorway from here, Western-super-Mare General Hospital announced this morning that it:

Quote
Will temporarily stop accepting new patients, including into its A&E department, as of 8am today (Monday 25 May 2020).

This is a precautionary measure in order to maintain the safety of staff and patients in response to the high number of patients with Coronavirus in the hospital.

Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6769 on: May 25, 2020, 05:00:53 PM »
South America is scaringly entering the stats.  :-[
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kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6770 on: May 25, 2020, 05:49:10 PM »
The Netherlands is removing restrictions with bars reopening on june the 1st.

The 1,5m rule still applies but there will be more contacts.

Things like barbers and dentists are already open.

Recently we had some clusters in meat packing plants. The infected workers were of course mostly east european workers who mostly live to close together so that is one way to keep a chain of spread alive.
 
But the interestingly enough i read in a newspaper that all the cases in the biggest cluster were all asymptomatic. Sadly the paper did not say how they found them but i think a case in another meat plant plus them being and identified problem place lead to much more general testing.

BTW it also included three inspectors who are veterinarians (so probably dutch and evidence of spread in the workplace).

We will see what the dutch numbers after june 1st do.

It is a traditional holiday too which is always busy so that might be problematic for the bars. The government refused to let the horeca test the implementation of the rules earlier.

And on a side note we have clusters in several mink farms including one quite bad one with mink to human transfers. The farmers want the government to cull (some of) the farms.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6771 on: May 25, 2020, 09:13:14 PM »
I think I mentioned that my daughter works at a small bar near the middle of Utrecht, Kafé België.

She's a bit freaked out about going back, since it is basically impossible for anyone to be 1.5 m away from anyone one if there are more than like 3 people in the bar at once. But of course she misses her coworkers and many of the patrons.

Here, there is a big outbreak in high rises a few blocks from my house that mostly houses East African immigrants...same issues of overcrowding, but also there doesn't seem to have been enough targeted educations toward these communities, and there are different cultural obstacles to overcome. Somalis (and many others from the Middle East and East Africa) tend to stand very close together while talking, and they still tend to do this, from what I've seen, often without masks.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6772 on: May 25, 2020, 09:32:28 PM »
U.S. Limits Travel From Brazil Amid Worsening Coronavirus Outbreak
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2300KP

(Reuters) - The White House on Sunday said it was restricting travel from Brazil to the United States, two days after the South American nation became the world's No. 2 hotspot for coronavirus cases.

The travel ban was a blow to right-wing Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, who has followed the example of U.S. President Donald Trump in addressing the pandemic, fighting calls for social distancing and touting unproven drugs.

The new restrictions come into force on May 28, the embassy said, prohibiting most non-U.S. citizens from traveling to the United States if they have been in Brazil in the last two weeks. Green card holders, close relatives of U.S. citizens and flight crew members, among select others, would be exempt. (... apparently the virus checks your nationality before infecting you)

... "There is nothing specific against Brazil," tweeted Filipe Martins, an advisor on international affairs to Bolsonaro.

Two hours earlier, he wrote that Trump had "opened a direct line for the exchange of information about the protocol for using hydroxychloroquine and other treatments for the virus."

-------------------------------

Hydroxychloroquine Tied to Deaths, Heart Risk in Covid Study
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-05-22/hydroxychloroquine-linked-to-deaths-heart-risks-in-covid-study

-------------------------------

WHO Pauses Trial of Hydroxychloroquine as Coronavirus Treatment Amid Safety Concerns
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/05/25/coronavirus-whos-solidarity-trial-is-pausing-tests-for-hydroxychloroquine-amid-safety-concerns.html

The World Health Organization on Monday temporarily suspended its trial of hydroxycholoroquine, the drug backed by President Donald Trump to combat the deadly coronavirus, over safety concerns.

In a news briefing on Monday, WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said that in light of a paper published last week in the Lancet, that showed people taking hydroxychloroquine were at higher risk of death and heart problems than those that were not, there would be “a temporary pause” on the hydroxychloroquine arm of its global clinical trial.

"The Executive Group has implemented a temporary pause of the hydroxychloroquine arm within the Solidarity Trial while the safety data is reviewed by the Data Safety Monitoring Board," WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters.

https://mobile.twitter.com/WHO/status/1264948479480209409

-------------------------------

Brazil's Health Secretary Resigns
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/eid-al-fitr-celebrated-coronavirus-lockdown-live-updates-200523231349229.html

One of the architects of Brazil's battle against the coronavirus pandemic has resigned.

The departure of epidemiologist Wanderson de Oliveira adds to turmoil in a Health Ministry whose recommendations for restrictions to limit the disease have often clashed with President Jair Bolsonaro’s calls to open the economy.

De Oliveira said he would leave his post on Monday. He initially offered his resignation last month, but stayed on at the request of then-Minister Luiz Mandetta, who shortly afterward was fired by Bolsonaro.

---------------------------------

Desperate Rats Brazenly Searching for Food During Coronavirus Pandemic, CDC Warns
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/5252522002

https://www.axios.com/aggressive-hungry-rats-cdc-coronavirus-warning-8d375c42-fc05-41a3-a2bc-4eb342e12fe9.html

https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/25/us-city-lockdowns-rat-aggression-lack-food-waste

Officials say rats have resorted to open warfare and eating their young as closures reduce edible waste.

... Last month, according to the national health body, dumpster-diving rats were observed resorting to open warfare, cannibalism and eating their young in the wake of urban shutdowns.

“Community-wide closures have led to a decrease in food available to rodents, especially in dense commercial areas,” the CDC said in recently updated rodent-control guidelines.

Elevated levels of rat aggression has been observed in New York, where there are increased reports of cannibalism and infanticide, and New Orleans, where rat behavior was caught on CCTV.

Some rodent experts predicted increased urban rat aggression.

-------------------------------

Sounds like something out of George R. Stewart's 1949 post-apocalyptic novel Earth Abides - where nature slowly reclaims previously human-occupied cities - newspaper headlines this weekend warn of hordes of `aggressive rats' flourishing due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

-------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6773 on: May 25, 2020, 11:34:52 PM »
Attended my first Mass in almost three months today. Pews are half-blocked off in a checkerboard pattern, the cloth backing of the pews is removed so they can be cleaned after every Mass, people have to go one at a time to Communion, no wine, no singing...a lot of changes.
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gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6774 on: May 26, 2020, 12:29:57 AM »
I stopped watching Chris Martenson’s videos regularly some time ago as his focus is often too negative, and he has a history of trying to sell apocalypses (and a probably interested promotion of gold and silver purchase as he calls them ‘real wealth’ and his web is associated with gold and silver brokerage; no, metals are not THE real wealth). Also he stopped providing useful data and started focusing on conspiracy theories. A couple of them I find plausible, as the four inserted aminoacids in Wuhan Lab by humans, but I refuse to be living with it in my mind on this every day, and then there’s the anti-HCQ conspiracy.

About this last theory, I watched recently the video where he makes the case for HCQ administered very early as soon as symptoms arrive and at usual dosages, avoiding its use late in the severe Hospital/ICU stage and at large dosages.

However there seems to be a large number of studies where timing and dosage is not well controlled.

The corrupt W.H.O. used to consider low risk associated to HCQ as a malaria and lupus drug. But now, powerful interests want to stop HCQ for economic and political reasons (especially corporate politicians and MSM), so the WHO conveniently decides to recommend halting all HCQ trials.

Gilead Sciences, lobbys, congressmen, Anti-Trump news editors all happy with this. Switch a cheap availablr drug that has some positive effect if administered early with right dosage, by a super expensive new antiviral still unavailable with little proved.

Disclaimer: I find Trump a calamity, but MSM shouldn’t have done medicine a way to attack him. Everything is highly suspicious.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6775 on: May 26, 2020, 01:32:50 AM »
Stockholm Won't Reach Herd Immunity In May, Sweden's Chief Epidemiologist Admits
https://www.npr.org/2020/05/25/861923548/stockholm-wont-reach-herd-immunity-in-may-sweden-s-chief-epidemiologist-says

Sweden's controversial approach to fighting the coronavirus pandemic has so far failed to produce the expected results, and there are calls within the country for the government to change its strategy.

"We have a very vivid political debate," Karin Olofsdotter, Sweden's ambassador to the United States, told NPR. "I don't think people are protesting on the streets but ... there's a very big debate, if this [strategy] is the right thing to do or not, on Facebook and everywhere."

Ambassador Olofsdotter told NPR last month that the country's capital could reach herd immunity by the end of this month (May).

Unfortunately, Sweden's capital will not reach this milestone in May.

"No that will not happen," said Dr. Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden's Public Health Agency, on Monday in an email to NPR. "Current investigations show different numbers, but [Stockholm's immunity rate] is likely lower [than 30%]. As you might be aware, there is a problem with measuring immunity for this virus."

... Sweden's Public Health Agency last week released the initial findings of an ongoing antibodies study that showed that only 7.3% of people in Stockholm had developed antibodies against COVID-19 by late April. Tegnell later described the study's figure as a "bit lower than we'd thought," adding that the study represented a snapshot of the situation some weeks ago and he believed that by now "a little more than 20%" of Stockholm's population should have contracted the virus.

It's the same figure that he mentioned in the CNBC interview over a month ago.

... With 39.26 deaths per 100,000, Sweden's mortality rate is not only higher than that of the U.S. (29.87 deaths per 100,000) but also exponentially higher than those of its neighbors Norway (4.42 per 100,000) and Finland (5.56 per 100,000), which both enacted strict lockdown measures, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

Nearly half of the country's more than 4,000 COVID-19 deaths have occurred in elderly care facilities.

Even without a nationwide lockdown, the Sweden's economy has taken a hit as people continue to follow their government's guidelines and stay at home. Google records indicated that trips to retail and recreational destinations in Stockholm are down 23%, while passenger numbers on public transit declined 29% between March 28-May 9.

The central bank expects unemployment to rise from 6.8% to 10.1% and GDP to shrink by up to 9.7% this year as result of the pandemic.

Earlier this month, Tegnell admitted that he is not sure Sweden's strategy was the right call. "I'm not convinced at all - we are constantly thinking about this," he told Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet.
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6776 on: May 26, 2020, 04:07:48 AM »
Quote
Earlier this month, Tegnell admitted that he is not sure Sweden's strategy was the right call. "I'm not convinced at all - we are constantly thinking about this," he told Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet.

It isn't. They should stop meeting in closed buildings and mask up until daily cases are down to a few cases a day. then they return to the measures they have now, perhaps even less. That should be enough for at least summer.

Once temperatures drop the outdoors are not safe anymore but by then there might be enough medical tools to make the risk of death or injury insignificant.
« Last Edit: May 26, 2020, 01:07:00 PM by Archimid »
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Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6777 on: May 26, 2020, 04:08:48 AM »
Closed environments facilitate secondary transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.28.20029272v2

Quote
The odds that a primary case transmitted COVID-19 in a closed environment was 18.7 times greater compared to an open-air environment (95% confidence interval [CI]: 6.0, 57.9). Conclusions: It is plausible that closed environments contribute to secondary transmission of COVID-19 and promote superspreading events. Our findings are also consistent with the declining incidence of COVID-19 cases in China, as gathering in closed environments was prohibited in the wake of the rapid spread of the disease.
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sidd

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6778 on: May 26, 2020, 08:24:36 AM »
These repatriates wll blow up cases in south asia absent quarantine:

"Last week Pakistan complained to the UAE that half of those returning from that country had tested positive for COVID-19. Pakistan’s Special Adviser to the Prime Minister on National Security, Moeed Yusf, told reporters, “We’ve raised this diplomatically,” adding that “God willing” the problem “is being solved.” "

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/05/25/gulf-m25.html

sidd

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6779 on: May 26, 2020, 01:27:54 PM »
Research Reveals Gene Role In Both Dementia and Severe Covid-19
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/26/research-reveals-gene-role-in-both-dementia-and-severe-covid-19

People with a genetic mutation that increases the risk of dementia also have a greater chance of having severe Covid-19, researchers have revealed.

The study is the latest to suggest genetics may play a role in why some people are more vulnerable to the coronavirus than others, and could help explain why people with dementia have been hard hit: dementia is one of the most common underlying health conditions among those who have died from Covid-19 in England and Wales.

“It is not just age: this is an example of a specific gene variant causing vulnerability in some people,” said David Melzer, a professor of epidemiology and public health at Exeter University and a co-author of the study.

The researchers found 9,022 of almost 383,000 Biobank participants of European ancestry studied had two copies of the e4 variant, while more than 223,000 had two copies of a variant called “e3”. The former, the team add, have a risk of dementia up to 14-fold higher than the latter.

The team then looked at positive tests for Covid-19 between 16 March and 26 April when testing for the coronavirus was largely carried out in hospitals, suggesting the cases were severe.

The results reveal 37 people who tested positive for Covid-19 had two copies of the e4 variant of ApoE, while 401 had two copies of the e3 variant. After taking into account various factors, including age and sex, the team say people with two e4 variants had more than double the risk of severe Covid-19 than those with two e3 variants.

... None of the Covid-19 positive participants with two e4 variants of the ApoE gene had a dementia diagnosis.

“It is pretty bulletproof – whatever associated disease we remove, the association is still there. So it looks as if it is the gene variant that is doing it … This association is not driven by people who actually have dementia,” said Melzer.

https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/glaa131

Open Access:  APOE e4 genotype predicts severe COVID-19 in the UK Biobank community cohort
https://academic.oup.com/biomedgerontology/advance-article/doi/10.1093/gerona/glaa131/5843454
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6780 on: May 26, 2020, 02:18:36 PM »
The provisional analysis of deaths certificated in week 20 (week ending 15 May) is now out.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending15may2020

Its now completely obvious that shifting a holiday to celebrate Brexit has messed up the statistics based on time of certification for both week 19 and week 20 by shifting roughly 20% of the deaths that normally would have been reported in week 19 into week 20. Euromomo and other places that collate excess mortality will probably show weird stuff for the UK too.

Excess mortality in hospitals is around zero, with COVID deaths balanced by the effect of hospitals being closed for non-emergency care. The level of use for non-COVID emergencies does seem to be getting back to normal though, so excess heart attack and stroke deaths at home should be going down and the COVID death rate was pretty close to the excess mortality in Week 20.

Data by location and day of death continues to show the death rate in care homes coming down at the same speed as the death rate in hospitals. It took a week longer to control COVID in care homes than the community in England and Wales, and thats a serious extra amount of mortality. Its also only controlled to the same extent as the general community, shielding measures aren't bringing it down faster. Scotland is another story.

...

Other indicators of control are not moving in the right direction. Hospital occupancy and admission rates are dropping at 5-10% a week now instead of 10-20% a week, the best guess of the infection survey is that the infection rate is a constant 60k/week (they have massive error bars, but if it was halving every two weeks they ought to have noticed). It looks like the infection rate got so crushed in London, that the slower response elsewhere is now dominating the national picture rather than the fast response in London.

...

James has added a second breakpoint to his model to see if there is a discernable change in Rt. So far there isn't, but past experience suggests it doesn't have enough data yet. If its still saying Rt2 = 1 next week, that will start to suggest that the infection rate bottomed out in early May.

...

My occasional visit to a grocery shop (3 weeks since the last time) didn't impress me. The shelf stackers had gone from being very professional about social distancing to blatantly ignoring it and being really sullen about me wanting them out of the way. Face covering has gone from crude improvised attempts to virtually zero. The physical arrangement of the checkout is the one place that showed continued improvement, I still wouldn't give the checkout a 5* hygiene rating, but I might stretch to a 4. Infection has to be really low locally, because local hospital admissions for Covid have almost ceased, but if the general opening of shops and tourist trade happens on the planned schedule with this sort of attitude, there's going to be a nasty second wave and the hammer will have to come down again.

wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6781 on: May 26, 2020, 05:16:20 PM »
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/05/real-estate-firms-and-landlords-using-loophole-to-rake-in-millions-in-covid-19-federal-aid-wsj/


Real estate firms and landlords using loophole to rake in millions in COVID-19 federal aid: WSJ


“Because most real-estate firms are private, tracking the number of aid recipients or the total amount of funds the industry has received is next to impossible, say real-estate attorneys and accountants,” the Journal reports.

 “But they are aware of at least dozens of property companies that have received in aggregate tens of millions of dollars or more because of a legal loophole that allows them to apply through related business units, such as management companies or construction companies.”
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6782 on: May 27, 2020, 02:06:08 AM »
Long Hospital Stays, High Rates of ICU Admission for US COVID-19 Patients
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-hospital-high-icu-admission-covid-.html

Hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the U.S. are enduring longer hospital stays and facing higher rates of intensive care unit (ICU) admission than patients in China, finds a new study led by researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, and Kaiser Permanente.

The results suggest that hospitals in the U.S. may be harder hit by the coronavirus pandemic than initially thought, as many forecasts of disease burden—particularly the number of hospital beds and ICU units needed at the peak of infection—are based on data out of China.

The study focused on 1,277 Kaiser Permanente members who were hospitalized with clinically- or laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19 between the start of the year and early April.

"Because Kaiser Permanente members receive comprehensive health care from a single provider network, we overcome many of the difficulties that arise in studies of diseases within the fragmented U.S. health care delivery system," said Lewnard.

Of the 1,277 Kaiser Permanente members who were hospitalized with COVID-19, 42% required care in the ICU, and 18% died from the disease. Modeling estimates based on observations in China usually assume that only about 30% of hospitalized patients will require ICU care.

Similarly, the data showed that hospital stays lasted an average of 10.7 days for survivors and 13.7 days for non-survivors, compared to an average of 7.5 days among non-survivors in China. Troublingly, 25% of patients were hospitalized for 16 days or more. In comparison, a widely-used modeling study from Imperial College London projecting health care needs assumes an average stay of eight days.

Not surprisingly, the analysis also revealed that the virus tends to hit older people the hardest. Approximately 50% of hospitalizations were among adults aged 60 and older, and 25% were among adults aged 73 and older. Similarly, hospitalized men seemed to be hit harder than women: Hospitalized males over the age of 80 faced a 58% risk of death, and hospitalized females of the same age faced only a 32% risk of death.

However, while the data indicate that social distancing is succeeding, the authors warn that we shouldn't expect to return to normal anytime soon.

... "These data suggest that if we were to release all of our mitigation measures at one time, the disease would start rapidly spreading again," Liu said. "We have to be really strategic and vigilant about how and when we roll back our social distancing measures.

"We also need to be mindful of just how severe the disease is," Lewnard added. "We see an 18% overall fatality rate among all people who are getting hospitalized, and 42% end up in the ICU, so the impact of transmission in terms of severe disease and hospital burden is quite high." ...

Open Access: Joseph A Lewnard et al, Incidence, clinical outcomes, and transmission dynamics of severe coronavirus disease 2019 in California and Washington: prospective cohort study, BMJ (2020)
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1923

--------------------------------

Northern England Hit Harder By COVID-19 and Effects Will Last Longer
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-northern-england-harder-covid-effects.html

Analysis released today by the Northern Health Science Alliance, in collaboration with the NIHR Applied Research Collaborations (ARCs) in the North East & North Cumbria and Greater Manchester, show the impacts of the virus are already hitting hard; on death rates from the illness, death rates from all causes and on job losses.

The team analysed data from the Office for National Statistics to map figures for the last six weeks on COVID19 deaths, deaths from all causes, and unemployment figures, to build up a picture of how the virus is affecting different parts of England.

The figures show deprived urban areas in the North of England are being hit with high rates of COVID deaths, higher death rates from all causes and particularly suffering from greater rates of increases in unemployment.

Researchers looked at the average England COVID mortality rate (36.6 per 100,000 people) and the average all-cause mortality rate (161 per 100,000 people) from March 1 to April 17 and the average increase in rate of people claiming unemployment benefits (1.9 percentage points) from March 12 to April 9. They then mapped across the main trainlines in England to see how different urban and rural centres performed compared to the national average in all three metrics.

Main centres in the North including Manchester, Liverpool, Newcastle and Durham are above the English average in all three areas whereas Slough is the only place outside of the North to be red in all areas.

Dr. Luke Munford of the University of Manchester said: "This visualisation shows that COVID-19 is impacting parts of the country in different ways, and there appears to be a North/South divide emerging.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6783 on: May 27, 2020, 03:22:06 AM »
Trump Team Killed Rule Designed To Protect Health Workers From Pandemic Like COVID-19
https://www.npr.org/2020/05/26/862018484/trump-team-killed-rule-designed-to-protect-health-workers-from-pandemic-like-cov

When President Trump took office in 2017, his team stopped work on new federal regulations that would have forced the health care industry to prepare for an airborne infectious disease pandemic such as COVID-19. That decision is documented in federal records reviewed by NPR.

"If that rule had gone into effect, then every hospital, every nursing home would essentially have to have a plan where they made sure they had enough respirators and they were prepared for this sort of pandemic," said David Michaels, who was head of the Occupational Safety and Health Administration until January 2017.

There are still no specific federal regulations protecting health care workers from deadly airborne pathogens such as influenza, tuberculosis or the coronavirus.

... In the spring of 2017, the Trump team formally stripped OSHA's airborne infectious disease rule from the regulatory agenda. NPR could find no indication the new administration had specific policy concerns about the infectious disease rules.

Instead, the decision appeared to be part of a wider effort to cut regulations and bureaucratic oversight.

... The federal government reports that at least 43,000 front-line health care workers have gotten sick, many infected, while caring for COVID-19 patients in facilities where personal protective equipment was being rationed.

NPR also found the lack of fixed regulations allowed the Trump administration to relax worker safety guidelines. Federal agencies did so repeatedly this spring as COVID-19 spread and shortages of personal protective equipment worsened.

As a consequence, hospitals could say they were meeting federal guidelines while requiring doctors and nurses to reuse masks and protective gowns after exposure to sick patients.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6784 on: May 27, 2020, 10:33:56 AM »


Researchers looked at the average England COVID mortality rate (36.6 per 100,000 people) and the average all-cause mortality rate (161 per 100,000 people) from March 1 to April 17 and the average increase in rate of people claiming unemployment benefits (1.9 percentage points) from March 12 to April 9. They then mapped across the main trainlines in England to see how different urban and rural centres performed compared to the national average in all three metrics.


They've biased their conclusion by the way they have used railways to sample the north more heavily than the south. They've ignored almost all the major southern lines. They've excluded the worst hit Covid areas both north and south, because they aren't on the lines they have chosen. The general picture is probably right, there is a poverty/COVID correlation in the UK, but the geographical conclusions are biased by an idiosyncratic sampling of the data that misses the worst hit areas.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6785 on: May 27, 2020, 12:32:37 PM »
A Catholic theologian on the morality of Covid-19 vaccine testing:
Covid-19 Vaccine Testing: Is a Challenge Trial Ethical?
https://ronconte.com/2020/05/26/covid-19-vaccine-testing-is-a-challenge-trial-ethical/
Quote
I favor the idea of a challenge vaccine trial, if it is done according to WHO guidelines. But the volunteers must be particularly well-informed and be given every possible protection and benefit.
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6786 on: May 27, 2020, 02:09:13 PM »
In communist dystopias, state-controlled media repeat the same propaganda on every channel to brainwash the populace.

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Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6787 on: May 27, 2020, 02:17:56 PM »
Yes, it's the next step in the destruction of small shops. The lockdowns are great for Jeff Bezos.
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bluice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6788 on: May 27, 2020, 03:40:25 PM »
Yes, great for Amazon but bad for large property investors who own hotels, airports, shopping malls and office buildings.

But one wave we can weather. If there's a 2nd one business will go bust and governments no longer have the means (or the will) to support them. Furloughs will turn into layoffs.

gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6789 on: May 28, 2020, 09:31:26 AM »
I just have to wonder what level of continuous strain the Swedish health system must be bearing. Together with a significant social distancing (responsibly self-imposed). Together with an economy that didn't suffer the complete halt of other European countries, but suffered a bit too.
It's like Sweden is in a sweet spot, or better said, sweet-and-sour spot. And yet far from herd immunity.

Not saying the rest is doing any better overall.

I don't mind to stand corrected especially from any Swedish member of this forum.

The US is in a similar situation, but without the Swedish social structure and safety net, without the Swedish society collective and individual responsibility and without the Swedish deliberate planning.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6790 on: May 28, 2020, 11:18:36 AM »
I just have to wonder what level of continuous strain the Swedish health system must be bearing. Together with a significant social distancing (responsibly self-imposed). Together with an economy that didn't suffer the complete halt of other European countries, but suffered a bit too.
It's like Sweden is in a sweet spot, or better said, sweet-and-sour spot. And yet far from herd immunity.

Not saying the rest is doing any better overall.

I don't mind to stand corrected especially from any Swedish member of this forum.

I think the current situation here in Sweden is not tenable. Tegnell talks now about "a very stable situation", but I do not see this as a good situation with over 50 deaths per day.



Such a forecast line would amount to 20 000 covid deaths per year.

I agree with prof Tove Fall that one should try to use the summer now to push the infestation back to much lower levels. Then test-track-trace.

bluice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6791 on: May 28, 2020, 03:11:53 PM »
It's becoming obvious Tegnell misjudged the disease.

Situation in Sweden is looking even worse as neighboring countries are opening up their societies.

Other Nordic countries are taking similar economic damage with far less dead and it looks unlikely Sweden will reach any form of herd immunity before vaccine arrives (if it arrives). Also, Sweden will be excluded from any possible travel bubble that may be pout in place.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6792 on: May 28, 2020, 03:20:50 PM »
Seniors With COVID-19 Taking ACE Inhibitors Have Lower Hospitalization Risk
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-seniors-covid-ace-inhibitors-hospitalization.html

A Yale-led study suggests that older COVID-19 patients taking ACE inhibitors for hypertension have a lower risk of hospitalization for the novel coronavirus.

Researchers analyzed retrospective data from about 10,000 patients with hypertension who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. All patients were enrolled in either Medicare Advantage or a commercially insured health care plan and had a prescription for at least one hypertension medication, such as angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers (ARB).

The use of ACE inhibitors was associated with an almost 40% lower risk of COVID-19 hospitalization for the older, Medicare Advantage patients—but there was no significant difference in risk for the younger, commercially insured patients.

The use of ARBs was not associated with a lower risk for COVID-19 hospitalization for either group. Also, neither ARBs nor ACE inhibitors were associated with a lower mortality risk in people hospitalized with COVID-19.

... The researchers said the study was prompted by unresolved gaps in scientific knowledge that have led to debate over how ACE inhibitors and ARBs affect COVID-19 patients.

Rohan Khera et al. Association of Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors and Angiotensin Receptor Blockers with the Risk of Hospitalization and Death in Hypertensive Patients with Coronavirus Disease-19, (2020).
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.17.20104943v1

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Versatile Antiviral Emerges to Fight COVID-19
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-versatile-antiviral-emerges-covid-.html

An antiviral called EIDD-2801, developed by researchers at the Emory Institute for Drug Development, has shown promise against several RNA viruses, including Ebola, influenza and SARS-CoV-1, in cell and animal studies. EIDD-2801 targets the same viral enzyme as remdesivir, but unlike that better-known drug, which must be given intravenously, EIDD-2801 is an oral medication. If shown to be safe and effective, the antiviral could be taken at home rather than in the hospital, allowing treatment earlier in the course of the disease, Senior Correspondent Bethany Halford writes.

EIDD-2801 works by alternately mimicking two different RNA bases, cytidine and uridine. This base switching confuses the enzyme that replicates the viral genome so that it makes mistakes, resulting in non-functional viruses. In lab tests, EIDD-2801 has a high barrier to resistance, meaning that viruses aren't able to quickly evolve mutants that are unaffected by the treatment. Phase I human trials of EIDD-2801 are now underway in the U.K., and a U.S. trial is slated to begin in the next few weeks. To have an impact, EIDD-2801 will most likely need to be given before the virus has time to ravage the body—ideally, soon after a person is exposed to SARS-CoV-2 or at the initial onset of symptoms. The potential drug's ability to target an array of viruses bodes well for future outbreaks, experts say.

Bethany Halford. An emerging antiviral takes aim at COVID-19. Chemical & Engineering News
https://cen.acs.org/pharmaceuticals/drug-development/emerging-antiviral-takes-aim-COVID-19/98/web/2020/05

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6793 on: May 28, 2020, 03:57:31 PM »
WHO Official: Spike in European Deaths Since March Linked to COVID-19
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/100000-coronavirus-deaths-355000-globally-live-updates-200527231438014.html

About 159,000 more people in 24 European countries have died since early March than would have ordinarily been expected, a World Health Organization official has said, adding a "significant proportion" of the spike is linked to COVID-19.

What we have seen very clearly is that the peak in excess mortality corresponds in those countries to the peak of the transmission of COVID-19," Katie Smallwood, a WHO emergency official, told reporters.

"This gives us a very good indication that a very significant proportion of this excess deaths is linked and due to COVID-19."

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Africa Hit by Community Spread of Coronavirus: Disease Centre
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/100000-coronavirus-deaths-355000-globally-live-updates-200527231438014.html

Cases of community transmission of the coronavirus are growing in Africa, particularly in Ethiopia, and a new strategy for testing is needed to prevent this, the head of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention has said.

Community transmission refers to cases where patients had no travel history or known contact with infected people - worrying for health workers because it means the virus is moving undetected through the population.

"We are beginning to see sustained community transmission within Ethiopia and many other countries across Africa. That means we need to increase our public health measures like distancing, wearing of masks, washing of hands," John Nkengasong told journalists.

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UK Has Highest Death Rate: FT Analysis
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/100000-coronavirus-deaths-355000-globally-live-updates-200527231438014.html

The UK has suffered the highest death rate from the coronavirus among the most-affected countries with comparable tracking data, according to Financial Times research.

Official numbers from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released earlier this week show the UK has registered almost 60,000 more deaths than usual since the week ending March 20.

Subsequent analysis by the FT, which looked at data from 19 countries, show the virus has directly or indirectly killed 891 people per million in the UK, the highest comparable figure.

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Brazil Records Another 1,000-Plus Daily Deaths
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/brazil-records-1000-daily-coronavirus-deaths-200528084409144.html

Brazil has recorded more than 1,000 new deaths from the coronavirus in the past 24 hours.

The 1,086 casualties, revealed on Wednesday, brought the total number of deaths to 25,598. With 20,599 new cases, the number of infected people has reached 411,821.

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6794 on: May 28, 2020, 04:33:31 PM »
It's becoming obvious Tegnell misjudged the disease.

I don't know about that, everything is easier now we know more.

But this virus is a bit more deadly and debilitating than expected.
It is also a bit less contagious than expected.

So it is possible to limit the spread, and it is worth the effort.

I hear now on Swedish radio again discussions about what was done. But the important thing is to discuss what to do now. Currently, R ≈ 1.0. With a little bit more effort, one could push this down.

If we don't do that, there are still 9 million people in Sweden that have not been exposed yet. The virus will continue to fester. And we will be alone in having this pest at high levels of 20 000 deaths per year.

Maybe "little bit more effort" would be face masks in public transport, stores, etc.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6795 on: May 28, 2020, 04:57:20 PM »
It's becoming obvious Tegnell misjudged the disease.

Of course they did. They thought it was just a bad flu. Seeing the results last week, that by April only 7% of Stockholmers, and 4-5% in other parts of the country have been infected they were clearly very disappointed. By now, cca 10-20% of the population had the virus which is still too low. R = 1 which means that the dead will continue to pile up: Sweden won't have a second wave, they have a very long one all throughout the year, and will lose 10-20 k people in the end.

If there is a medicine or vaccine this year and other countries will have much less dead (per capita) than Sweden, Tegnell will be crucified.
If, on the other hand, there will be no solution this year and most European countries will have to acquire herd immunity by letting the infection rampage thru the population, then he is going to be OK.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6796 on: May 28, 2020, 06:55:52 PM »
[

UK Has Highest Death Rate: FT Analysis
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/05/100000-coronavirus-deaths-355000-globally-live-updates-200527231438014.html

The UK has suffered the highest death rate from the coronavirus among the most-affected countries with comparable tracking data, according to Financial Times research.

Official numbers from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released earlier this week show the UK has registered almost 60,000 more deaths than usual since the week ending March 20.

Subsequent analysis by the FT, which looked at data from 19 countries, show the virus has directly or indirectly killed 891 people per million in the UK, the highest comparable figure.

2nd highest. The FT article isn't paywalled and is well worth reading. https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0

Spain, Italy, UK and Belgium are virtually tied at the top and Spain just revised its data which bumped it above the UK. The next UK revision (UK excess death data updates each Tuesday) is likely to take the UK back into the lead again though.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6797 on: May 28, 2020, 08:13:45 PM »
2nd highest. The FT article isn't paywalled and is well worth reading. https://www.ft.com/content/6b4c784e-c259-4ca4-9a82-648ffde71bf0

Spain, Italy, UK and Belgium are virtually tied at the top and Spain just revised its data which bumped it above the UK. The next UK revision (UK excess death data updates each Tuesday) is likely to take the UK back into the lead again though.

And the US has a very long delay compared to the rest.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6798 on: May 28, 2020, 08:38:56 PM »
According to 91-divoc.com, Belgium leads by a long shot.
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #6799 on: May 28, 2020, 09:40:52 PM »
There's an update on the UK infection survey today.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/28may2020

Currently infected 0.24% of the general population
New infections 0.1% per week
Error margins far too big to say whether these numbers are going up or down but they look pretty stable.
6.8% have antibodies

Combining the data from the whole survey period to date drops the error margins enough to start to say something about which segments of the population are most infected.
Quote
Of those in our study who reported working in patient-facing healthcare or resident-facing social care roles, 1.73% tested positive for COVID-19 (95% confidence interval: 0.92% to 2.94%). This includes NHS professionals, such as nurses and doctors, as well as social care workers, such as nursing home or home care workers.

By comparison, the percentage of people reporting not working in these types of roles testing positive for COVID-19 was lower at 0.38% (95% confidence interval: 0.29% to 0.47%).

Symptoms are a poor measure of infection.
The best combination (cough, fever, loss of smell/taste) only tested positive 6% of the time, and only 30% of those testing positive reported any symptoms at all during the study period.
Anything based on symptoms catches an awful lot of people that aren't infected, and misses an awful lot of people that are.