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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 340920 times)

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8800 on: September 16, 2020, 10:32:03 AM »
The Southern Hemisphere is soon going to be rid of COVID once and for all. Spring is coming, and COVID will almost totally disappear there (just like it didi in Europe from May). After that, vaccination comes. So the danger is almost over for the SH.

However, for the NH, the real trouble is just beginning. This will be our winter of discontent.

BTW, a CFR of 2.9% is not equal to an IFR of 2.9%. Just saying. Said it a million times but some still can not comprehend it.

CFR and IFR: I understand there is a difference. The percentage is based on known cases and deaths attributed to Covid.
There are obviously cases in Melbourne that are not recorded.
In saying that, the amount of testing that is being done is significant. I don't believe the true death rate per case is 2.9%.... but I strongly suspect it is clearly in the 1% region.

Australia and New Zealand should be rid of Covid within months, I hope. But the Southern Hemisphere includes Southern Africa and South America, neither of which will be rid of Covid in the coming year.
Aust and NZ have tiny populations as well, we barely rate a mention to be honest (a combined population of only 30 odd million).

I do think the NH is in for a hiding this winter... and I hope a vaccine happens but that wont be enough to stop Covid for years, if at all depending on how effective it is. This isn't going away anytime soon.

dnem

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8801 on: September 16, 2020, 01:59:10 PM »
This is just a general observation about things "getting back to normal." I live in Baltimore, MD, USA.  Last night, my wife, son and I went food shopping. We wore masks and stayed apart from people and felt quite safe.  However, I recognize that there is a non-zero risk of making such a trip compared to staying at home. I have no real idea what that risk is: maybe a 1 in 10,000 chance that one of us might contract COVID? One in 50,000? Who knows? Now, I have heard that a vaccine that achieves 50% protection would be approved. How would that materially effect my risk tolerance for doing activities? If I don't know within a factor of two what my risk is, a halving of that risk helps, but does not really change my general state of mind and risk tolerance.

Add to that, the likelihood that just the presence of a vaccine will likely make many less likely to wear a mask and take other precautions, it is likely that the society wide risks I will face will go up in some ways.

Over time, if the disease metrics begin to really improve, that would effect my risk perception and willingness to engage in activities. But that is going to take time. Likely more than a year after a vaccine starts to be rolled out.  There is also this issue of vaccine side effects which will take a long time to play out. This is a long haul. I can't imagine going to movies, concerts, indoor restaurants, sports events etc. for a very long time.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8802 on: September 16, 2020, 02:47:06 PM »
The testing in Melbourne is better than most of the world. 

Melbourne did the work for the rest of the world to give us an excellent idea of IFR well beyond 1% and probably quite a bit higher.

This will get buried and the “just a fLu bro, less than 1% propaganda” will continue to persist.

The situation in Melbourne should be gravely concerning.  The best testing and best healthcare system in the world with an IFR well beyond 1%.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8803 on: September 16, 2020, 03:35:42 PM »
  The best testing and best healthcare system in the world with an IFR well beyond 1%.

Noone knows Melbourne's IFR. Everywhere else where we have data, it is cca 1% (for a population with an average age of 40). Therefore I seriously doubt that Melbourne's IFR is above 1%. Otherwise, spring is coming. Melbourne will be very happy in 3 minths

Sigmetnow

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8804 on: September 16, 2020, 04:07:35 PM »
A Maine wedding is linked to the deaths of 7 people who didn't attend
Quote
A wedding in Maine is linked to 176 Covid-19 cases and the deaths of seven people who didn't attend the celebration, demonstrating just how easily and quickly the virus can spread at social gatherings, public health experts say.

As officials continue to push preventive measures, such as wearing masks and practicing social distancing to keep infection rates low, they also have been vocal in warning against large gatherings. But Americans have continued to congregate, leading to outbreaks tied to a number of events, from Memorial Day and Fourth of July celebrations to a massive motorcycle rally in Sturgis, South Dakota.

The wedding held in Millinocket on August 7 had about 65 guests, in violation of the state's 50-person cap for indoor events, Maine CDC said.

The event is linked to outbreaks that have unfolded at a nursing home and a jail, both more than 100 miles away from the wedding venue, and among people who had only secondary or tertiary contact with an attendee.

Residents at Maplecrest Rehabilitation and Living Center accounted for 39 cases tied to the wedding and six of the seven deaths thus far, Maine CDC Director Dr. Nirav D. Shah said. ...
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/16/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8805 on: September 16, 2020, 05:41:30 PM »
A Maine wedding is linked to the deaths of 7 people who didn't attend
Quote
A wedding in Maine is linked to 176 Covid-19 cases and the deaths of seven people who didn't attend the celebration, demonstrating just how easily and quickly the virus can spread at social gatherings, public health experts say.

As officials continue to push preventive measures, such as wearing masks and practicing social distancing to keep infection rates low, they also have been vocal in warning against large gatherings. But Americans have continued to congregate, leading to outbreaks tied to a number of events, from Memorial Day and Fourth of July celebrations to a massive motorcycle rally in Sturgis, South Dakota.

The wedding held in Millinocket on August 7 had about 65 guests, in violation of the state's 50-person cap for indoor events, Maine CDC said.

The event is linked to outbreaks that have unfolded at a nursing home and a jail, both more than 100 miles away from the wedding venue, and among people who had only secondary or tertiary contact with an attendee.

Residents at Maplecrest Rehabilitation and Living Center accounted for 39 cases tied to the wedding and six of the seven deaths thus far, Maine CDC Director Dr. Nirav D. Shah said. ...
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/16/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html

4% IFR for the wedding.  They did contact tracing and likely tested everyone.

This is an extremely dangerous virus.


El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8806 on: September 16, 2020, 05:57:54 PM »
I will help you understand the article you quoted:

"Residents at Maplecrest Rehabilitation and Living Center accounted for 39 cases tied to the wedding and six of the seven deaths thus far, Maine CDC Director Dr. Nirav D. Shah said."

Wow, old, frail, sick people die of this virus! We did not know that! Amazing find!

Yes, it is very dangerous for old people (70+), 5 to 15% could die, that is true, but is known since spring. And it is very rarely dangerous at all for otherwise healthy people  under 50.

So other than those care home people what happened? Out of (176-39) = 147 people 1 died. And we do not know his/her age, and health problems.

You can twist it and turn it harpy as much as you like, but the basic numbers are already in and have been for months. We pretty well know the likelyhood of death for various age groups and illnesses. For an average developed world population it is cca 1%, and for a young, developing world population it is likely 0,1-0,3%. Read upthread, many citations and data there.

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8807 on: September 16, 2020, 06:16:41 PM »
You can twist it and turn it harpy as much as you like, but the basic numbers are already in and have been for months. We pretty well know the likelyhood of death for various age groups and illnesses. For an average developed world population it is cca 1%, and for a young, developing world population it is likely 0,1-0,3%. Read upthread, many citations and data there.

I agree with your estimates.  Harpy's over-estimate was likely sincere.

We do need to recognize that this infection seems to have a far higher rate of long-term consequences than any ordinary acute viral infection.  We need a new terminology.  In addition to IFR (infection fatality rate), we need maybe IMR (infection morbidity rate).  Perhaps defined as significant residual problems beyond, say, 3 months.   

I *think* there's maybe enough higher-quality data to start to estimate a very rough ballpark estimate. I've only glanced through a couple of relevant articles.  My wild guess is that it's several times higher than the IFR. 

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8808 on: September 16, 2020, 06:45:55 PM »
The current IFR of around 1%-3% is only possible because we have strict lockdown and travel restrictions.

The IFR will spike much, much higher if these restrictions are ever lifted.

Our memory seems to be short here on this thread, but several months ago New York City was digging mass graves.

https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/100000007081747/coronavirus-nyc-mass-graves.html

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8809 on: September 16, 2020, 06:52:35 PM »
The current IFR of around 1%-3% is only possible because we have strict lockdown and travel restrictions.

The IFR will spike much, much higher if these restrictions are ever lifted.

The IFR doesn't directly vary with increased prevalence.  Perhaps you mean that infections will have higher mortality when healthcare resources are overwhelmed.  A bit under 1% would be much closer to our rough consensus on this forum.  But I don't think we need to re-ignite that point of disagreement.
 
My own sense is that we'll likely see a gradually falling IFR as treatments incrementally improve.  It may drop dramatically if/when we have an effective treatment that can be given orally, and started as soon as Covid is diagnosed, for high-risk individuals.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8810 on: September 16, 2020, 09:03:13 PM »
Our memory seems to be short here on this thread, but several months ago New York City was digging mass graves.

https://www.nytimes.com/video/us/100000007081747/coronavirus-nyc-mass-graves.html

Good, we are using NY data.

20000 out of 8,6 million died. That is cca 0,2-0,25% of the population. 20-25% was infected. Exercise: calculate the IFR from these data

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8811 on: September 16, 2020, 09:04:30 PM »
  We need a new terminology.  In addition to IFR (infection fatality rate), we need maybe IMR (infection morbidity rate).  Perhaps defined as significant residual problems beyond, say, 3 months.   

I *think* there's maybe enough higher-quality data to start to estimate a very rough ballpark estimate. I've only glanced through a couple of relevant articles.  My wild guess is that it's several times higher than the IFR.

You might be right but I haven't seen any good data on that. If you find some, please quote them here.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8812 on: September 16, 2020, 11:10:32 PM »
Lowering Expectations: CDC Director Says Face Masks May Provide More Protection Than Coronavirus Vaccine
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/09/16/cdc-director-says-face-masks-may-provide-more-protection-than-coronavirus-vaccine-.html

A potential coronavirus vaccine will likely be available in limited quantities by the end of this year, but it may only be about 70% effective, CDC Director Robert Redfield said.

A 50% effective vaccine would be roughly on par with those for influenza but below the effectiveness of one dose of a measles vaccination, which is about 93% effective, according to the CDC.

The CDC and the WHO now suggest people wear face coverings to prevent the spread of the coronavirus, which is spread through respiratory droplets when a person coughs, sneezes or talks.

Face coverings are "the most powerful public health tool" the nation has against the coronavirus and might even provide better protection against it than a vaccine, the head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told lawmakers Wednesday.

"We have clear scientific evidence they work, and they are our best defense," CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield said. "I might even go so far as to say that this face mask is more guaranteed to protect me against Covid than when I take a Covid vaccine."

Other top health experts, including White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci, have said the likelihood of producing a highly effective Covid-19 vaccine — one that provides 98% or more guaranteed protection — is slim.

"If I don't get an immune response, the vaccine's not going to protect me. This face mask will," Redfield told lawmakers while holding up a blue surgical face mask. He urged Americans, particularly those between 18 and 25 years old, to continue wearing face coverings, reiterating they could help bring the pandemic under control in a matter of weeks if people wore them universally.

----------------------------------

U.S. Plans to Distribute COVID-19 Vaccine Immediately After Regulators Authorize It
https://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2672CU

(Reuters) - The U.S. government on Wednesday said it will start distributing a COVID-19 vaccine within one day of regulatory authorization as it plans for the possibility that a limited number of vaccine doses may be available at the end of the year.

Officials from the Department of Health and Human Services and the Department of Defense on Wednesday held a call with reporters and then released documents on the distribution plans that it is sending to the states and local public health officials.

The federal government will allocate vaccines for each state based on the critical populations recommended first for vaccination by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. [... or how you voted]

The document, called the COVID-19 Vaccination Program Interim Playbook, said limited COVID-19 vaccine doses may be available by early November 2020 if one is authorized by then, but that supply may increase substantially in 2021.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/imz-managers/downloads/COVID-19-Vaccination-Program-Interim_Playbook.pdf

-------------------------------------

Coronavirus Test Prices Charged by Some Hospitals and Labs Stun Consumers, Spur Questions
https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/3472304001

When Lisa Robertson sought coronavirus testing for her college athlete daughter, a pediatrician recommended a small, independent pharmacy in Arlington, Virginia.

Preston’s Pharmacy charged $35 to take a nasal swab specimen and sent it off to a lab, Principle Diagnostics, for quick results. The lab billed her insurance company $864 – more than eight times what the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services reimburses for COVID-19 tests.

... Robertson was surprised her insurer, a Blue Cross and Blue Shield plan with robust benefits for federal employees and retirees, paid the full amount, via a check that she forwarded to the Bethlehem, Pennsylvania-based lab.

“Why would it cost the lab $864, and then our insurance paid” the full amount, Robertson asked. “Is the lab taking advantage of a situation and not being regulated?”

It’s a question more are raising. There have been 85 million tests administered, and congressional mandates require insurers to pay the full cost of testing, no matter how much hospitals or labs bill. As routine testing expands to workplaces, universities and professional sports leagues, labs may have found a lucrative niche amid the pandemic.

In July, the House Energy and Commerce Committee sent inquiries to 10 laboratories and hospitals about COVID-19 test prices that ranged from $300 to $6,000. The committee's letters described the charges as "unconscionable and clearly excessive" and questioned whether the labs complied with the Families First and Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Acts, both intended to ensure widespread testing at little to no cost for patients.

A doctor who worked for a chain of free-standing emergency rooms in Texas went to an Austin location to get a COVID-19 antibody test. His insurance plan was billed $10,984 for the test and paid the entire amount, prompting the doctor to quit the chain, ProPublica reported.

https://www.propublica.org/article/a-doctor-went-to-his-own-employer-for-a-covid-19-antibody-test-it-cost-10-984

A separate analysis by the nonprofit, nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation found nearly one in four hospital websites did not publicly post prices. Of the hospitals that did, Kaiser found some prices as high as $850 for a single test – not including extra fees a consumer might be assessed, such as the cost of a doctor’s visit, facility fee or specimen collection. The median price was $127, but about one in five hospitals charge more than $200 per diagnostic test.

A survey conducted by the industry group America’s Health Insurance Plans found hospitals or labs that did not contract with insurance plans tended to charge the most. About 1 in 10 of these out-of-network providers charged an average $390 for a COVID-19 test.

-------------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8813 on: September 16, 2020, 11:47:16 PM »
Quote
For an average developed world population it is cca 1%, and for a young, developing world population it is likely 0,1-0,3%.
Yes, El Cid, if you go by age distribution. But medical infrastructure is poorer in developing countries. Wouldn't this raise the IFR somewhat?
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harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8814 on: September 17, 2020, 12:55:02 AM »
We have credible information emerging from Melbourne right now that the IFR is well beyond 1%.

What's the suggestion by posters of the opinion that this virus has an IFR of 0.25 and only affects the elderly, morbid, and frail individuals?

Just open everything back up, take the masks off, and go back to work?



« Last Edit: September 17, 2020, 01:01:55 AM by harpy »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8815 on: September 17, 2020, 03:32:34 AM »
Defense Intel Head: We ‘Did What We Were Supposed To’ With COVID Warning
https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2020/09/defense-intel-head-we-did-what-we-were-supposed-covid-warning/168538/

DIA chief hints that the public doesn’t yet know just what the military knew about the coronavirus.

What did the U.S. military know about the disruptive and deadly effects of COVID-19 and when did they know it? In April, the Pentagon denied a report that the National Center for Medical Intelligence was concerned about a potential pandemic as far back as last November. But there may be more to the story.

On Wednesday, Gen. Robert Ashley, who runs the Defense Intelligence Agency — NMCI’s parent agency — said that the agency “did what we were supposed to” and that a bigger story would come out eventually.

“Over the coming months and years, that will get unpacked in probably a much more public way, not for this particular venue. But one of the things we have done, and we have done it early on, is we have looked at everything we knew, who we told, when we told them, and when we knew it, and what leader did that get to,”
Ashley said at an INSA event.

In April, ABC News reported that the NCMI had assessed the potential for COVID-19 to flare into a major and particularly devastating pandemic as early as November of last year. Pentagon officials issued this statement: "As a matter of practice the National Center for Medical Intelligence does not comment publicly on specific intelligence matters. However, in the interest of transparency during this current public health crisis, we can confirm that media reporting about the existence/release of a National Center for Medical Intelligence Coronavirus-related product/assessment in November of 2019 is not correct. No such NCMI product exists.”

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/intelligence-report-warned-coronavirus-crisis-early-november-sources/story?id=70031273

“Part of our foundational charter is to understand capability and capacity of foreign militaries. NCMI comes back and tells senior leadership that ‘here’s the capacity for a foreign military to deal with the pandemic, to deal with whatever medical issue.’ So that’s your foundational understanding of, you know, not necessarily their artillery systems and other things. It’s their ability from the medical side,” he said.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8816 on: September 17, 2020, 04:53:17 AM »
We have credible information emerging from Melbourne right now that the IFR is well beyond 1%.

What's the suggestion by posters of the opinion that this virus has an IFR of 0.25 and only affects the elderly, morbid, and frail individuals?

Just open everything back up, take the masks off, and go back to work?
It really does seem that you are obfuscating the issue on purpose harpy. No one said IFR 0.25%.

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8817 on: September 17, 2020, 04:56:18 AM »
We have credible information emerging from Melbourne right now that the IFR is well beyond 1%.

What's the suggestion by posters of the opinion that this virus has an IFR of 0.25 and only affects the elderly, morbid, and frail individuals?

Just open everything back up, take the masks off, and go back to work?

If you look at the Melbourne data..... 2.9% with good testing... we all know that not every case was caught.
It would be prudent to at least half that percentage.... at least but not by a lot more.

This puts the percentage of death between 1% and 1.45% in a city that has good health care that just coped with the spike.

My concern and debate isn't the percentage as such, it is more about having a death rate of 1.0% to 1.4% when things worked.
We only had 500 recorded tests cases per day at the worst stage and our hospitals were literally full. If that had doubled, which is easy to do when the virus is allowed to spread without much restrictions, that death rate would have been much higher.

That is my concern.
1% is bad but not a total disaster.... but it comes with strong restrictions to movement, only essential services and businesses being allowed to open, mask wearing and a compliant population with a State Govt prepared to do what was needed to stop the spread.

We have seen what happened in Italy, New York and other places. But those are relatively small scale as well when resources can be brought in from elsewhere to help out.

Now, why not make what happened in small regions in the US, Spain and Italy and make it country wide?
Honestly, and I hope I am wrong, but if Covid explodes everywhere at once throughout the US and Europe without proper attention to restrictions, I cant see the death rate remaining at 1%.

I wish I could stop watching this unfold because I cant see the Northern winter being a good event at all. Europe and the US simply are not doing enough to stop the potential disaster from hitting everywhere at once.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8818 on: September 17, 2020, 08:22:51 AM »

I wish I could stop watching this unfold because I cant see the Northern winter being a good event at all. Europe and the US simply are not doing enough to stop the potential disaster from hitting everywhere at once.

If COVID is seasonal (which I think it is) then there WILL be huge problems in Europe and NA. Even with 1% mortality

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8819 on: September 17, 2020, 08:26:10 AM »
Quote
For an average developed world population it is cca 1%, and for a young, developing world population it is likely 0,1-0,3%.
Yes, El Cid, if you go by age distribution. But medical infrastructure is poorer in developing countries. Wouldn't this raise the IFR somewhat?

India seems to prove that 0,1-0,2% IFR is realistic there even with, how to put it,  not so worldclass healthcare. See Mumbai, Delhi, etc data.

I think, though I am not at all sure about it, that there is not much you can actually do to reduce mortality once someone falls ill. No matter how high tech your hopsital is. It seems to me that all they do is just basic stuff

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8820 on: September 17, 2020, 09:01:22 AM »
If Covid 19 is seasonal, then the IFR is variable. It could be that the IFR during the peak of winter is 1.5% and during the peak of summer  0.5%.  The overall IFR would be 1%.

Also on CFR vs IFR. With enough proactive testing CFR can approach IFR.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8821 on: September 17, 2020, 12:34:46 PM »
Has the SH winter we are just finishing shown any tendency to a seasonal spike in cases and/or mortality?
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El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8822 on: September 17, 2020, 01:33:38 PM »
Argentina , SAfrica, India and the Philippines (monsoon=winter) and even Australia had a very hard time slowing it down even with full lockdowns. At the same time Europe and the US hardly did anything to protect itself and still the summer was quite peaceful.

I do not need more proof for R to be seasonal

As for mortality, I am not convinced that it changes based on the seasons

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8823 on: September 17, 2020, 02:20:06 PM »
Quote
For an average developed world population it is cca 1%, and for a young, developing world population it is likely 0,1-0,3%.
Yes, El Cid, if you go by age distribution. But medical infrastructure is poorer in developing countries. Wouldn't this raise the IFR somewhat?

India seems to prove that 0,1-0,2% IFR is realistic there even with, how to put it,  not so worldclass healthcare. See Mumbai, Delhi, etc data.

I think, though I am not at all sure about it, that there is not much you can actually do to reduce mortality once someone falls ill. No matter how high tech your hopsital is. It seems to me that all they do is just basic stuff

Oren - here you go, another poster post pointing out an erroneously low 0.1-0.2IFR.

I’m legitimately curious what posters like this would suggest because according to these incorrect numbers we’re at a relatively low risk.



bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8824 on: September 17, 2020, 02:42:55 PM »
Quote
For an average developed world population it is cca 1%, and for a young, developing world population it is likely 0,1-0,3%.
Yes, El Cid, if you go by age distribution. But medical infrastructure is poorer in developing countries. Wouldn't this raise the IFR somewhat?

India seems to prove that 0,1-0,2% IFR is realistic there even with, how to put it,  not so worldclass healthcare. See Mumbai, Delhi, etc data.

I think, though I am not at all sure about it, that there is not much you can actually do to reduce mortality once someone falls ill. No matter how high tech your hopsital is. It seems to me that all they do is just basic stuff

Oren - here you go, another poster post pointing out an erroneously low 0.1-0.2IFR.

I’m legitimately curious what posters like this would suggest because according to these incorrect numbers we’re at a relatively low risk.
I would suggest you lose weight and leave your computer and stop being a hysterical person. I know this sounds patronizing but you are losing your life so Bezos and the Sulzbergers can line their pockets.

The vaccines aren't safe. In fact for anyone under 65 or not obese they will probably be more dangerous than the virus.

I would also suggest getting a script for Descovy or Truvada. The Spanish study (71K HIV+ individuals) showed almost no deaths among those taking ^^ (altho Truvada is apparently more efficacious). These decrease risk by 40-60% for infection and mortality further. Supplement with Vitamin D and don't be obese, and you have a minimal chance of COVID-related hospitalization.

PS: more sunshine in Hamptons this week. I was out all day yesterday with no sunscreen (and I am naturally very pale) and only tanned, no burn. The CA smoke is screening out some of the light. Winter is most certainly coming.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8825 on: September 17, 2020, 03:15:21 PM »
As for mortality, I am not convinced that it changes based on the seasons

If Vitamin D plays a large role, then severity increases with winter.

 Like you, I'm waiting on convincing data on Vitamin D and seasonality but South American C19 has me convinced that it will get worse during winter.
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harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8826 on: September 17, 2020, 03:27:57 PM »
What is the % of people who were in ICU care in Melborne, versus the total number of infected?

When ICU beds become overwhelmed, the fatality rate will be essentially include many infected people who needed to be hospitalized.

Obviously (or at least I  hope this is obvious to the posters here), the infection fatality ratio will also skyrocket under those conditions.

The true IFR without any hopitalization could very well be on the same level as our current "CFR" numbers.

Will they allow such an event to unfold?  Chances aren't particularly high, and as long as they enforce strict mask wearing and lockdown measures, I seriously doubt that IFR will change much.

That being said, the consequence is that we are forced to wear masks and not socially gather until they develop an effective vaccine. 

How long can we endure this dystopian reality of not being able to attend weddings, parties, etc etc and face masks?

« Last Edit: September 17, 2020, 03:41:37 PM by harpy »

greylib

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8827 on: September 17, 2020, 03:36:59 PM »
How long can we endure this dystopian reality of not being able to attend weddings, parties, etc etc and face masks?
One person's dystopian reality is another's utopia.  ;)

Barbra Streisand's "People who need people" are turning out NOT to be "the luckiest people in the world". Us old curmudgeons are :)
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Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8828 on: September 17, 2020, 03:57:03 PM »
...the US hardly did anything to protect itself and still the summer was quite peaceful.

Do you live in the U.S.?

I do.

Despite this administrations best efforts, states across the country are lock downed. Yes there are some Red states that are more open than others and they have the highest case rates and deaths occurring as I type.

Businesses across the country have large numbers of employees working remotely as they care more for their employees than Trump cares for U.S. citizens.

Despite these efforts, we are averaging 1000 official deaths per day which I would hardly call "quite peaceful".

You...do...not...know...what...you...are...talking...about.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2020, 05:32:38 PM by Shared Humanity »

nanning

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8829 on: September 17, 2020, 04:30:02 PM »
Thanks for that SH.
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Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8830 on: September 17, 2020, 04:50:47 PM »
Quote
For an average developed world population it is cca 1%, and for a young, developing world population it is likely 0,1-0,3%.
Yes, El Cid, if you go by age distribution. But medical infrastructure is poorer in developing countries. Wouldn't this raise the IFR somewhat?

India seems to prove that 0,1-0,2% IFR is realistic there even with, how to put it,  not so worldclass healthcare. See Mumbai, Delhi, etc data.

I think, though I am not at all sure about it, that there is not much you can actually do to reduce mortality once someone falls ill. No matter how high tech your hopsital is. It seems to me that all they do is just basic stuff

Oren - here you go, another poster post pointing out an erroneously low 0.1-0.2IFR.

I’m legitimately curious what posters like this would suggest because according to these incorrect numbers we’re at a relatively low risk.
I would suggest you lose weight and leave your computer and stop being a hysterical person. I know this sounds patronizing but you are losing your life so Bezos and the Sulzbergers can line their pockets.

The vaccines aren't safe. In fact for anyone under 65 or not obese they will probably be more dangerous than the virus.

I would also suggest getting a script for Descovy or Truvada. The Spanish study (71K HIV+ individuals) showed almost no deaths among those taking ^^ (altho Truvada is apparently more efficacious). These decrease risk by 40-60% for infection and mortality further. Supplement with Vitamin D and don't be obese, and you have a minimal chance of COVID-related hospitalization.

PS: more sunshine in Hamptons this week. I was out all day yesterday with no sunscreen (and I am naturally very pale) and only tanned, no burn. The CA smoke is screening out some of the light. Winter is most certainly coming.

Do you have any information at all that the non-existent vaccine is more dangerous than Covid????

As an aside.... I would dare you to walk around in Australia or New Zealand without sunscreen..... you would would be a crisp within 30 minutes.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8831 on: September 17, 2020, 05:48:17 PM »
Quote
For an average developed world population it is cca 1%, and for a young, developing world population it is likely 0,1-0,3%.
Yes, El Cid, if you go by age distribution. But medical infrastructure is poorer in developing countries. Wouldn't this raise the IFR somewhat?

India seems to prove that 0,1-0,2% IFR is realistic there even with, how to put it,  not so worldclass healthcare. See Mumbai, Delhi, etc data.

I think, though I am not at all sure about it, that there is not much you can actually do to reduce mortality once someone falls ill. No matter how high tech your hopsital is. It seems to me that all they do is just basic stuff

Oren - here you go, another poster post pointing out an erroneously low 0.1-0.2IFR.

I’m legitimately curious what posters like this would suggest because according to these incorrect numbers we’re at a relatively low risk.
I don't trust the statistics coming out of India. However, the country has only 5% of the population above the age of 65, compared to 20% in the European Union, so I wouldn't be surprised if their average IFR was very much lower than in Europe, as Covid mortality is highly dependent on age.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8832 on: September 17, 2020, 06:38:41 PM »
Despite these efforts, we are averaging 1000 official deaths per day which I would hardly call "quite peaceful".

You...do...not...know...what...you...are...talking...about.

The point you need to understand is that quoting the number of deaths does not help you with deciding whether R is seasonal or not. R has been around cca 1 during the summer in the US with cca 25% loss of mobility (based on Google Mobility). This is what I call doing not much. You may say that it is terrible, but during the real lockdown Italy and Spain achieved 75% loss of mobility! (they are currently around -15% only, which means almost back to normal). Even the US achieved around 50% in April.
Because IF COVID-19 is seasonal then it means that summer "baseline" R is lower than winter "baseline" R. Doing as much as you do pushed it down to 1. But IF "no-action" winter R is much higher than summer R then what you currently do will not be enough to keep actual R around 1.
That is what I was talking about. Of course it is possible that I am wrong about this, but we will know in 3 months' time.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8833 on: September 17, 2020, 06:44:35 PM »
Or in other words, in retrospect this summer might seem quite peaceful relatively speaking, despite it being quite awful in the USA now.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8834 on: September 17, 2020, 07:55:38 PM »
Quote
How long can we endure this dystopian reality of not being able to attend weddings, parties, etc etc and face masks?

I do not know, but I know that the infection ends 2-3 months after the world agrees to erradicate it. While rogue nations like the US, Brazil and Mexico keep seeding the world with C19 the problem will be present, regardless of the best efforts of everyone else.
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gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8835 on: September 17, 2020, 08:37:59 PM »
Things look pretty pretty bad in Madrid again, with hospitals and primary health centers getting uncomfortably crowded in many neighborhoods and towns.
Definitely a 15% is not enough for herd immunity.
Here our regional president has a lot to respond about for her ineptitude and recklessness. Catalonia for instance has listened to science and is at 1/10 current Madrid levels, Aragon was bad in Summer but the outbreaks were controlled and quenched. But here, it turns out that the Madrid regional government had lied and only hired 1/3 or the personnel for tracing that were needed, also fired medical and administrative temporary workers in June never replaced. Now there are revolts in some primary care centers and the regional government asks (no, demands) for help to the central government. Freaking chaos. Result: without much precedent in the world, Madrid will be a region to have been hit with double numbers in overall incidence, and will be hit again with double numbers.

And these idiots will start to do the only thing they know, to lockdown selectively first and en masse later, but this could have been different.

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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8837 on: September 17, 2020, 09:14:16 PM »
Indoor humidity linked to COVID severity (in a preprint and interview with its author on the BBC Inside Science podcast)

Add a humidifier to your Vitamin D supplements for the coming winter if your indoor humidity is liable to drop below 40%. (Just like Vitamin D there's lots of reasons for not letting your humidity get that low even if you don't think this is THE critical factor.)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m000mk37 or wherever you get podcasts from if outside the UK

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.11.20147157v2

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8838 on: September 17, 2020, 09:18:40 PM »
Interesting. Increasing indoor humidity was one of the first things I tried to do in the community kitchen I worked in, before we moved to take out. Nice to hear that it wasn't totally off the mark.

We had a humidifier, but also just left lots of pots of steaming water around. Of course, we also encouraged people to distance themselves at tables, and we distanced each table from the others.

We didn't hear of any spread happening at our place, but really we just did these things for a week or two, before shutting indoor dining down completely and switching to take out.

::::::::

Yes, well put SH. Maybe by "...the summer was quite peaceful..." EC meant in the sense of Rest In Peace??  :o

Note that 'mobility' doesn't necessarily mean 'peaceful'--lots of people in the US right now are 'mobile' because they are fleeing record wildfires and multiple hurricanes. A bunch of not-so-bright/ethical Americans were 'mobile' when about a half million of them rode across the country to attend a motorcycle rally in South Dakota...one event that some have estimated caused a quarter million cases (directly and indirectly) and is likely partly responsible for the fact that the Dakotas now have the highest rates of increased cases in the country.

In my town of Minneapolis, no kids are going to school, few are physically going to universities, restaurants are mostly empty, if they are even open. Almost no one I know, except health care workers, are regularly going in to work. People are, though, as they should be, going to parks and other wide-open spaces more when they can.

And from what I hear, Mpls is not abnormal in this: A relative recently traveled through downtown DC and said it was eerily dead.

So there may be mobility happening for various reasons in various places, but the places I know of first or second hand are no where close to 'back to normal.'

But Americans do like their cars (and motorcycles), and I'm sure many are looking for ways to get out of their house...driving around is probably one of the safest way to do that right now.
« Last Edit: September 17, 2020, 09:55:41 PM by wili »
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8839 on: September 17, 2020, 09:34:27 PM »
U.S., Americas and Europe See Uptick In Cases
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/17/coronavirus-latest-europe-jittery-as-cases-rise-and-lockdowns-return.html

“We have a very serious situation unfolding before us,” Hans Kluge, WHO’s regional director for Europe, said Thursday in a press briefing. “Weekly cases have now exceeded those reported when the pandemic first peaked in Europe in March.”  He said that, last week, the region’s weekly tally exceeded 300,000 patients.

The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control warned Wednesday that the 14-day case notification rate (the number of newly reported infections) for the EU, European Economic Area and the U.K. “has been increasing for more than 50 days, with over half of all EU countries currently experiencing an increase in cases.”







----------------------------------------

Congressional Lawmakers Question Findings of Kodak’s Internal Review
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/16/kodak-shares-soar-after-law-firm-says-ceos-options-grants-did-not-violate-internal-policies.html

House lawmakers on Thursday questioned the findings of an internal review commissioned by a special committee at Kodak, which found no violations committed by company executives with regards to a halted $765 million deal with the federal government that sent the company’s stock price soaring.

The D.C. law firm hired by Kodak’s special committee, Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld, said in a report that Kodak CEO Jim Continenza’s transactions did not violate company policy or securities laws. However, the investigators did note “several flaws in the process.”

https://www.kodak.com/content/products-brochures/Company/Report-to-the-Special-Committee-09.15.2020.pdf

Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C., Chairman of the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis; Rep. Maxine Waters,  D-Calif., Chairwoman of the Committee on Financial Services; and Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y., Chairwoman of the Committee on Oversight and Reform, however, said their committees will continue to investigate the contract.

“The report from Kodak’s lawyers raises more questions than it answers about the Trump Administration’s efforts to provide the company a $765 million loan to produce pharmaceutical ingredients despite Kodak’s lack of experience in the field,” they said in a joint statement. “Let’s be clear: this report does not represent the findings of any regulator; it is a report generated by a law firm hired by Kodak.”

... trust them, would they lie?

-------------------------------------

Moderna Inc told Reuters on Thursday that the company could soon seek emergency authorization for a candidate vaccine that has nearly completed the enrollment of 30,000 in the last stage of clinical trials.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/17/moderna-expects-to-know-if-its-coronavirus-vaccine-works-by-november-ceo-says.html

... It’s conceivable that the company could know by October, but “unlikely,” Bancel said. “If the infection rate in the country were to slow down in the next weeks, it could potentially be pushed out in a worst-case scenario in December,” he added.

An independent safety board will take a first look at Moderna’s data as soon as a total of 53 people in the trial become infected with Covid-19, Reuters reported

“If the interim readout is deemed by the independent safety committee as positive with 70 or 80 or 90% efficacy, we will indeed consider approval,” Stéphane Bancel, Moderna’s chief executive officer, said in a telephone interview with Reuters.

“At such a level of efficacy, if we get there, we can protect a lot of lives in the people at the highest risk, and so, we will consider filing for an EUA for a very limited population [... President & sycophants?],” Bancel said.

... if Putin can do it , so can we!

-----------------------------------------

« Last Edit: September 18, 2020, 12:54:28 AM by vox_mundi »
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Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8840 on: September 17, 2020, 10:06:56 PM »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8841 on: September 18, 2020, 02:26:30 AM »
C.D.C. Testing Guidance Was Published Against Scientists’ Objections
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/17/health/coronavirus-testing-cdc.html

A controversial guideline saying people without Covid-19 symptoms didn’t need to get tested for the virus came from H.H.S. officials and skipped the C.D.C.’s scientific review process.

A heavily criticized recommendation from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last month about who should be tested for the coronavirus was not written by C.D.C. scientists and was posted to the agency’s website despite their serious objections, according to several people familiar with the matter as well as internal documents obtained by The New York Times.

The guidance said it was not necessary to test people without symptoms of Covid-19 even if they had been exposed to the virus. It came at a time when public health experts were pushing for more testing rather than less, and administration officials told The Times that the document was a C.D.C. product and had been revised with input from the agency’s director, Dr. Robert Redfield.

But officials told The Times this week that the health department (HHS) did the rewriting itself and then “dropped” it into the C.D.C.’s public website, flouting the agency’s strict scientific review process.

“That was a doc that came from the top down, from the H.H.S. and the task force [VP Pence],” said a federal official with knowledge of the matter, referring to the White House task force on the coronavirus. “That policy does not reflect what many people at the C.D.C. feel should be the policy.”

The document contains “elementary errors” — such as referring to “testing for Covid-19,” as opposed to testing for the virus that causes it — and recommendations inconsistent with the C.D.C.’s stance that mark it to anyone in the know as not having been written by agency scientists, according to a senior C.D.C. scientist who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of a fear of repercussions.

Adm. Brett Giroir, the administration’s testing coordinator and an assistant secretary at the Department of Health and Human Services, the C.D.C.’s parent organization, said in an interview Thursday that the original draft came from the C.D.C., but he “coordinated editing and input from the scientific and medical members of the task force.”

The question of the C.D.C.’s independence and effectiveness as the nation’s top public health agency has taken on increasing urgency as the nation approaches 200,000 deaths from the coronavirus pandemic and Mr. Trump continues to criticize its scientists and disregard their assessments.

Similarly, a document, arguing for “the importance of reopening schools,” was also dropped into the C.D.C. website by the Department of Health and Human Services in July and is sharply out of step with the C.D.C.’s usual neutral and scientific tone, the officials said.

The information comes mere days after revelations that political appointees at H.H.S. meddled with the C.D.C.’s vaunted weekly reports on scientific research.

“The idea that someone [non-scientist] at H.H.S. would write guidelines and have it posted under the C.D.C. banner is absolutely chilling,” said Dr. Richard Besser, who served as acting director at the Centers for Disease Control in 2009.

Some experts also said the recommendation appeared to be motivated by a political impetus to make the number of confirmed cases look smaller than it is.

At a congressional hearing on Wednesday, Dr. Redfield said the agency was revising the recommendation and would post the revision, “I hope before the end of the week.” The revision was written by a C.D.C. scientist but was being edited on Thursday by the Department of Health and Human Services and the White House coronavirus task force, according to a federal official familiar with the matter.

----------------------------------------

New CDC Guidance for Reopening Schools Creates Color-Coded Risk Scale
https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2020-09-17/new-cdc-guidance-for-reopening-schools-creates-color-coded-risk-scale?context=amp

One early analysis of the CDC guidance suggests nearly 90% of people in the U.S. live in counties that fall into the two highest of five risk categories for reopening schools.

The release of the guidance, which recommends aggressive thresholds, reignited a wave of criticism over the lack of federal guidance and left many wondering how many schools would have decided not to reopen for in-person learning if officials had this guidance earlier.

According to an early analysis from Ashish Jha, director of the Harvard Global Health Institute, and one of the country's leading public health experts, 20 states fall into the "highest risk" category and 28 states fall into the "higher risk" category. Only two fall into the "moderate risk" category and one into the "low risk" category.

No state meets the thresholds for the "lowest risk" category.

Four states without any public health criteria for reopening – Arkansas, Florida, New Jersey and Texas – require schools to offer in-person instruction regardless of public health conditions.

... The new CDC criteria, Jha said, shows "how much of America has not done the job" to open schools safely.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/community/schools-childcare/indicators.html
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El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8842 on: September 18, 2020, 07:50:41 AM »
Ok, to clarify things:

1 ) "quite peacful" - this probably was an unfortunate use of words. I meant that life at many places in the NH midlatitudes was much closer to normal than during the lockdown phase in April.

2) mobility: I use google mobility. I specifically average recreation& retail + transit stations + workplace numbers. This shows how much more people go to work, take rides and gather in towns, go to restaurants, bars, malls, swimming pools, entertainment parks, cinemas etc.

Below I attach a few examples, how it evolved during last year. As you were right to point out, US is still lower in mobility numbers than Europe. My experiences are based on Europe where I would say life was almost back to normal during summer.

3) My point is still the same: despite moving back closer to normal, R was unbelievably low during the summer - despite the lifting of restrictions. This leads me to conclude that R is seasonal, which is very unfortunate, because winter is coming...so likely more restrictions and more spread and more deaths despite renewed efforts.



wili

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8843 on: September 18, 2020, 09:52:04 AM »
Thanks for the clarifications, EC

But it doesn't exactly feel like all restrictions were lifted.

They figured out that keeping six feet apart and while being outside was generally pretty safe, so they allowed restaurants and bars to open with those restrictions. Very few were allowed inside, and that actually got stricter over the summer where I am at least.

Still, many people choose not to go out at all, or much less frequently--even the most popular restaurants, those that opened that is, have about a 90% reduction in customers, far beyond the capacity restrictions. Some have announced they are closing in-house dining in coming weeks, because it is not worth it.

I don't know anyone who has had people over to (the inside of) their house. That's just not something people do any more, by and large.

So in my corner of the US, at least, it certainly doesn't seem like pre-covid times. And daily new cases and deaths remain stubbornly high, in spite of near universal mask wearing and pretty well enforced distancing in stores, etc.

But yeah, pretty much everyone expects a surge as cold weather make it harder to socialize inside and schools start up. There is always a surge of colds in the fall, and many of those, as I understand it, are also kinds of coronaviruses, so why wouldn't this act the same?

One of the big concerns is if we have a heavy flu season on top of a heavy covid19 season. That could really stretch or break the ability of the medical community to cope. Masking etc should help tamp down flu number, but if people just get fed up and start having dangerously large gatherings, as happened in Sturgis, SD this summer for example, we could have both spread quickly and widely.

My wife had her flu shot this week at work (first time she's actually gone there in months), and I plan to do the same this weekend at a pharmacy.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8844 on: September 18, 2020, 01:16:51 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries data as at 17 september


USA Data. Despite the best efforts of the HHS the data is not that encouraging.

7 day average daily deaths went down to 750 by the 10th september but have risen to 840 per day.
7 day average daily new cases went down to 35k by 10th September but are back up to 40.6k per day.

Deaths at 202k have just breached the lower limit of (if I remember rightly) what was Fauci's worst-case scenario of 200 to 400k deaths.

That the HHS wrote and posted guidance on the CDC website without scientific review and aginst scientific evidence or knowledge of CDC is a new low in the USA's standing in the world.
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gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8845 on: September 18, 2020, 01:32:47 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries data as at 17 september

meanwhile, back in Europe, things are not going so well.

Italy data
Daily new cases seem stable at around 1,400 per day, as do daily deaths at 10 per day. But the increases may have stopped rising, but there is no decline as winter approaches.

Active cases were at minimum on 30th July at 12k, but are now at 41k.

UK data
Daily new cases still on the rsie, more than duble this month to a 7 day average of over 3,300, Daily deaths (7 day average) also doubled this month to 14 per day.

Very small compared with the USA, but UK health scientists are really worried.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8846 on: September 18, 2020, 01:55:52 PM »
In my town of Minneapolis, no kids are going to school, few are physically going to universities, restaurants are mostly empty, if they are even open. Almost no one I know, except health care workers, are regularly going in to work. People are, though, as they should be, going to parks and other wide-open spaces more when they can.

And from what I hear, Mpls is not abnormal in this: A relative recently traveled through downtown DC and said it was eerily dead.


Chicago Metro Status...

Schools did not open, including colleges and universities. Restaurants are open and empty. Bars are closed. The expressways during rush hour are post apocalyptic with a few cars traveling over the speed limit when they would normally be bumper to bumper. My one hour commute takes 35 minutes. Meetings are all virtual. There is nothing that could be described as 'normal' but I suppose it could be considered eerily 'peaceful'.

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8847 on: September 18, 2020, 02:39:44 PM »
Quote
For an average developed world population it is cca 1%, and for a young, developing world population it is likely 0,1-0,3%.
Yes, El Cid, if you go by age distribution. But medical infrastructure is poorer in developing countries. Wouldn't this raise the IFR somewhat?

India seems to prove that 0,1-0,2% IFR is realistic there even with, how to put it,  not so worldclass healthcare. See Mumbai, Delhi, etc data.

I think, though I am not at all sure about it, that there is not much you can actually do to reduce mortality once someone falls ill. No matter how high tech your hopsital is. It seems to me that all they do is just basic stuff

Oren - here you go, another poster post pointing out an erroneously low 0.1-0.2IFR.

I’m legitimately curious what posters like this would suggest because according to these incorrect numbers we’re at a relatively low risk.
I would suggest you lose weight and leave your computer and stop being a hysterical person. I know this sounds patronizing but you are losing your life so Bezos and the Sulzbergers can line their pockets.

The vaccines aren't safe. In fact for anyone under 65 or not obese they will probably be more dangerous than the virus.

I would also suggest getting a script for Descovy or Truvada. The Spanish study (71K HIV+ individuals) showed almost no deaths among those taking ^^ (altho Truvada is apparently more efficacious). These decrease risk by 40-60% for infection and mortality further. Supplement with Vitamin D and don't be obese, and you have a minimal chance of COVID-related hospitalization.

PS: more sunshine in Hamptons this week. I was out all day yesterday with no sunscreen (and I am naturally very pale) and only tanned, no burn. The CA smoke is screening out some of the light. Winter is most certainly coming.

Do you have any information at all that the non-existent vaccine is more dangerous than Covid????

As an aside.... I would dare you to walk around in Australia or New Zealand without sunscreen..... you would would be a crisp within 30 minutes.
That is not true, lol. I lived in Australia for several years. It is equivalent of late March sun angle currently in the NHEM, probably early-mid March if you include the smoke. You can be outside in Aus without sunscreen in wintertime or early spring / late autumn without sunscreen, although in summer you certainly cannot. The same is true in the NHEM....

Does this very conversation and "rebuttal" not illustrate the barriers people seemingly have to realizing the seasonality of mortality re: Vit D and sunshine in general pop?!?!

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8848 on: September 18, 2020, 03:20:39 PM »
One of the big concerns is if we have a heavy flu season on top of a heavy covid19 season. That could really stretch or break the ability of the medical community to cope.

It is almost sure that THERE WILL BE NO FLU this year. It is simple maths. Covid's R is cca 3, the flu: 1,6. To keep Covid's R anywhere near 1 you need to reduce contacts by 60-70%, so flu's R will be way below 1 with those restrictions.

It's long been my view, but now I actually found hard data for this:

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/09/12/the-southern-hemisphere-skipped-flu-season-in-2020




gandul

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #8849 on: September 18, 2020, 03:21:32 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries data as at 17 september

meanwhile, back in Europe, things are not going so well.

Italy data
Daily new cases seem stable at around 1,400 per day, as do daily deaths at 10 per day. But the increases may have stopped rising, but there is no decline as winter approaches.

Active cases were at minimum on 30th July at 12k, but are now at 41k.

UK data
Daily new cases still on the rsie, more than duble this month to a 7 day average of over 3,300, Daily deaths (7 day average) also doubled this month to 14 per day.

Very small compared with the USA, but UK health scientists are really worried.

Well, Italy is doing relatively well now, all things considered. If there is decline but no rise either, hopefully, things can still be under control. Maybe somebody did the homework during summer.

It’s not only the absolute number of cases that matters, the reproductive number too, Gero.