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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 424638 times)

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9400 on: October 19, 2020, 01:31:13 AM »
Twitter Takes Down 'Misleading' Anti-Mask Tweet by Trump Coronavirus Adviser
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/twitter-removes-tweet-top-trump-covid-adviser-saying-masks-don-n1243841

Twitter has removed a “misleading” tweet by a top Trump coronavirus adviser for violating its Covid-19 information policy.

Dr Scott Atlas has downplayed the importance of masks in stopping the spread of infection – despite the health experts widely endorsing the containment measure. On Sunday, he tweeted: “Masks work? NO.”

Twitter Inc removed the tweet on Sunday, saying it violated its misleading information policy on COVID-19, which targets statements that have been confirmed to be false or misleading by subject-matter experts.

Donald Trump’s advisor – whose views align with the president’s own on mask-wearing, if not with the medical establishment – has been criticised by the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for spreading misinformation.

“Everything he says is false,” Robert Redfield said about Atlas, NBC reported. Redfield later confirmed he had been talking about Atlas.

Trump has leaned on Atlas in recent months over the advice of other advisers like National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci. An assistant professor and  neuroradiologist with no training in infectious diseases, Atlas, who gained attention after making a number of appearances on Fox News, has more aggressively pushed for reopening sectors of the economy and is regularly seen at the White House without wearing a mask.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9401 on: October 19, 2020, 05:09:12 AM »
On a personal note, I am taking my 12 year old and 7 year old on a 3000km bike ride from Melbourne to Townsville from March to get out of the house and breath the fresh air fro a few months.

3000 km with a 7 yr old on bicycle? How long is it going to take?! Half a year??? Shouldn't they be in school?

That is school for an Australian! Australians are expected to be able to cope stuck abroad in a plague pit for the two years it takes to get a booking in the quarantine hotel. Basic training for this starts young ;)

I homeschool the kids. They are both autistic and don't deal with school at all but thrive at home.

My 12 year old is a strong rider and I am towing my 7 year old with some help from an electric motor for head wind days and moderate climbs (I will walk the steep hills, not that Oz has many). The set up I have allows me to detach the 7 year olds bike so he can ride solo every day until he gets tired, then I attach him back to my bike for the rest. He is a strong rider for his age. He comfortable does 15km to 20km every second day already.

The route is not direct, we will be weaving a little bit. I did a relatively detailed plan, it turns out it will be about 2700km.... 30km to 50km per day, slow start. I predict it will take about 90 days, give or take a week.

I nest not derail this thread, I didn't expect the response.... opps.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9402 on: October 19, 2020, 07:13:52 AM »

The route is not direct, we will be weaving a little bit. I did a relatively detailed plan, it turns out it will be about 2700km.... 30km to 50km per day, slow start. I predict it will take about 90 days, give or take a week.

I nest not derail this thread, I didn't expect the response.... opps.

Quite a journey, Good luck!

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9403 on: October 19, 2020, 09:57:39 AM »
Local lockdowns in Sweden from monday. https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/swedish-to-bring-in-local-lockdowns-as-coronavirus-cases-rise/ar-BB1a8ef7

Strange. I live here in Sweden. I have not heard about it it.

Fake news, methinks.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9404 on: October 19, 2020, 10:22:10 AM »
Sweden is moving away from its no-lockdown strategy and preparing strict new rules amid rising coronavirus cases
https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-shifts-away-no-lockdown-strategy-amid-growing-case-numbers-2020-10

Sweden will shift away from its early coronavirus strategy of opting against lockdown measures and instead embrace restrictive measures adopted by most of its neighbors amid growing case numbers in the country.

Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, is set to meet with local health officials next week to discuss which measures to put into place in response to outbreaks in the capital Stockholm and nearby city Uppsala, The Telegraph newspaper reported.

Umea University's Dr Joacim Rocklov told The Telegraph newspaper that after being an outlier earlier in the year, Sweden was shifting to a strategy closer to those adopted by most other governments.

It will give local authorities the power to strongly recommend people to avoid busy public places like shopping centers, museums, gyms, concerts, and sports matches. Swedes may also be asked to avoid public transport and contact with the elderly and vulnerable.

"What's happened in the last couple of weeks is a movement towards a similar model to what has been used in Norway and many other countries," he said. "It's very obvious that it's a new strategy, but still, the newspapers report on 'the Swedish strategy' as if it were fixed in March."

Johan Nojd, who heads Uppsala's infectious diseases department, suggested that he would be prepared to introduce harsher restrictions for the city like new rules for hospitality if the number of cases in the city continued to grow.

However, unlike in other countries, there will be no fines or legal consequences for people who decide not to follow any new advice. Bitte Brastad, the chief legal officer at Sweden's public health agency, said the rules were "something in between regulations and recommendations."

Tegnell this week said that the level of immunity in Sweden's cities was not as high as the health officials had recently believed.

"I think the obvious conclusion is that the level of immunity in those cities is not at all as high as we have, as maybe some people have believed," he said.

"I think what we are seeing is very much a consequence of the very heterogeneous spread that this disease has, which means that even if you feel like there have been a lot of cases in some big cities, there are still huge pockets of people who have not been affected yet."
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9405 on: October 19, 2020, 10:46:00 AM »
Sweden is moving away from its no-lockdown strategy and preparing strict new rules amid rising coronavirus cases
https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-shifts-away-no-lockdown-strategy-amid-growing-case-numbers-2020-10

Sweden will shift away from its early coronavirus strategy of opting against lockdown measures and instead embrace restrictive measures adopted by most of its neighbors amid growing case numbers in the country.

It is fake news. We are not embracing anything here in Sweden.

Neighboring countries seem to need this to make their restrictive measures acceptable for their populations.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9406 on: October 19, 2020, 10:52:41 AM »
If you made it to the 2nd paragraph you would see that they will be discussing it this coming week.

Quote
... Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, is set to meet with local health officials next week to discuss which measures to put into place in response to outbreaks in the capital Stockholm and nearby city Uppsala, The Telegraph newspaper reported.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9407 on: October 19, 2020, 11:06:47 AM »
If you made it to the 2nd paragraph you would see that they will be discussing it this coming week.

Quote
... Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, is set to meet with local health officials next week to discuss which measures to put into place in response to outbreaks in the capital Stockholm and nearby city Uppsala, The Telegraph newspaper reported.

If that "insider" is not aware the there are no concerts or sports events in Sweden (since spring), they don't know anything.

Yes, the developments in Uppsala and Stockholm will be discussed. It is my impression that they will mainly talk about public transport, which is getting more and more crowded when the weather gets worse.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9408 on: October 19, 2020, 04:25:17 PM »
Medium-Term Impact of COVID-19 Revealed In New Study
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-10-medium-term-impact-covid-revealed.html

Initial findings from a study looking at the longer-term impact of COVID-19 has found that a large proportion COVID-19 patients discharged from hospital were still experiencing symptoms of breathlessness, fatigue, anxiety and depression two to three months after contracting the virus.

The University of Oxford scientists carrying out the C-MORE study have also detected abnormalities on MRI in multiple organs and believe that persistent or chronic inflammation may be an underlying factor for these changes among COVID-19 survivors.

The 88 participants and controls underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of their brain, lungs, heart, liver and kidneys; spirometry to test their lung function; a six-minute walk test; cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET), as well as assessments of their quality of life, cognitive and mental health.

The C-MORE study found that two to three months after the onset of the disease, 64% of patients experienced persistent breathlessness and 55% complained of significant fatigue.

On MRI, tissue signal abnormalities were seen in the lungs of 60% of the COVID-19 patients, in the kidneys of 29%, in the hearts of 26%, and the livers of 10%. Organ abnormalities were seen even in patients who had not been critically ill when admitted.


MRI also detected tissue changes in parts of the brain, and patients demonstrated impaired cognitive performance. Their ability to sustain exercise was also significantly reduced, although this was due to a combination of fatigue and lung abnormalities.

The study also found that patients were more likely to report symptoms of anxiety and depression, and a significant impairment in their quality of life compared to the controls

"... it is interesting to see that the abnormalities detected on MRI and exercise capacity in patients strongly correlated with serum markers of inflammation. This suggests a potential link between chronic inflammation and ongoing organ damage among survivors."

Betty Raman et al. Medium-term effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection on multiple vital organs, exercise capacity, cognition, quality of life and mental health, post-hospital discharge, medrxiv, (2020)
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.15.20205054v1
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9409 on: October 19, 2020, 05:01:59 PM »
Belgium Facing 'Tsunami' of Covid Infections, Health Minister Says
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/19/belgium-facing-tsunami-of-covid-infections-health-minister-says

Belgium is losing control of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic and is very close to being overwhelmed by a “tsunami” of infection, the country’s health minister has said.

He said: “We are the most affected region in all of Europe. We are really close to a tsunami … that we no longer control what is happening. Today, we can still control what is happening, but with enormous difficulties and stress.

“If it continues to increase, the number of hospitalisations will be such that we will have to postpone more and more non-Covid care, which is also very dangerous.

... The numbers in Belgium have shot up since September, as adults returned to work and pupils went back to school after their summer break.



Between 9 and 15 October, an average of 7,876 new infections a day were reported, an increase of 79% from the previous week.

Last Tuesday, 12,051 infections with the corona virus had been identified, marking the “highest number of infections recorded in one day since the start of the pandemic,” said Dr Steven Van Gucht ... “We also passed the 10,000 infection mark on Wednesday, October 14, with 10,932 confirmed cases in one day.”

... The mayor of Namur, Maxime Prévot, said: “There is clearly a problem today in terms of testing, and even more so in terms of tracing. We do not have effective monitoring. We have kilometres of lines [of people] to be tested, then we wait days and days to have the results.”

“The laboratories are working at full speed. And Belgium is one of the EU countries which tests the most, But at some point, when there are too many patients, the system cracks.”

Between 11 and 17 October there were an average of 233.9 daily admissions to hospital, a 96% increase on the previous week.

Belgium population: 11.46 million

-----------------------------------------

Poland will open a temporary hospital at Warsaw’s national stadium to ease the strain on the healthcare system from spiking coronavirus cases, the government said on Monday.

... Poland has recorded multiple new records in daily cases and deaths in the past weeks, with doctors reporting shortages of personnel, hospital beds and equipment.

“I fear that looking at the development of the situation we will have his infrastructure set up for weeks if not months in several places in Poland,” government spokesman Piotr Muller told state broadcaster TVP Info.

-------------------------------------------

The United States surpassed 8 million confirmed COVID-19 cases today since the beginning of the pandemic, as a new surge of infections in the Midwest and West brings daily case numbers back to levels not seen since the peak days of July and early August.

... Among the states where hospitals are starting to feel the strain is Wisconsin, where COVID-19 hospitalizations yesterday hit an all-time high of 1,043, with 264 people in intensive care units (ICUs), according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. State health officials told the paper that ICUs across the state are more than 90% full, and hospitals in every region are reporting current or imminent staffing shortages.

Elsewhere in the country, Indiana health officials say COVID-19 hospitalizations have risen to their highest level since May, and the Kansas City Star reports that some Kansas City area hospitals are turning away ambulances with COVID-19 patients because their beds are already filled. Both Missouri and Kansas are seeing surges in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/10/us-surpasses-8-million-covid-19-cases
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/10/15/wisconsin-coronavirus-3-747-cases-17-covid-deaths-reported-thursday/3667837001/

-----------------------------------

Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who was recently released from the hospital after spending 7 days in the ICU with COVID-19, said in a statement yesterday that Americans should take the coronavirus very seriously. "No one should be happy to get the virus and no one should be cavalier about being infected or infecting others," he said. Christie also said he regretted not wearing a mask to the Sep 26 Rose Garden ceremony for Judge Amy Coney Barrett or several debate prep sessions with President Trump.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/15/politics/chris-christie-covid-19-statement/index.html
« Last Edit: October 19, 2020, 05:20:30 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9410 on: October 19, 2020, 05:27:55 PM »
By comparison, Sweden and the U.S. are not looking so bad.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9411 on: October 19, 2020, 06:30:46 PM »
'People are dying every night': Staff at overwhelmed Wisconsin hospital urge people to take coronavirus seriously


https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/2020/10/19/aspirus-wausau-hospital-staff-urge-wisconsin-take-covid-seriously/3669849001/

Wisconsin test positivity rate is now 24.7%. They are not testing enough and there is little to no contact tracing.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9412 on: October 19, 2020, 08:08:55 PM »
<The music thread is in the rest. kassy>
« Last Edit: October 19, 2020, 08:57:06 PM by kassy »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9413 on: October 20, 2020, 12:56:41 AM »


“What’s concerning here is that it’s only mid-October and there is a long fall and winter,” Isaac Bogoch, an infectious disease specialist and professor at the University of Toronto, told CNBC in a phone interview. “We are clearly in the second wave in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere and we really need to have more control of this infection at the community level.”



The number of daily coronavirus cases is climbing in the U.S. with total cases now over 8.1 million and the death toll at 219,880, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.



Midwest leads in new cases per capita



With infection surges in the U.S. and Europe, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases around the world topped 40 million on Monday, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.

----------------------------------------------

Canada extends U.S. travel restrictions to Nov. 21
https://t.co/EZ3pi3asJr?amp=1

Canada extended its non-essential travel restrictions with the United States until Nov. 21, according to a tweet from Bill Blair, Canada’s minister of public safety and emergency preparedness.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9414 on: October 20, 2020, 01:27:00 PM »
Britain to Infect Healthy Volunteers With Coronavirus In Vaccine Challenge Trials
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/20/uk-strikes-deal-with-open-orphan-for-coronavirus-challenge-study.html

LONDON — British scientists said Tuesday they will launch the world's first human challenge trials for covid-19, in which healthy volunteers will be deliberately infected with the coronavirus, in the hope of further speeding the way to a vaccine.

The research, led by scientists at Imperial College London and paid for by the British government, is a gutsy gambit, given that people will be submitting themselves to a deadly virus with no surefire treatment.

The British experiment is scheduled to begin in January. Volunteers will be given a laboratory-grown strain of the live virus while quarantined in a secure unit at the Royal Free Hospital in London, where they will undergo daily, even hourly, tests.

The initial phase of the study, involving 50 to 90 healthy young adults, between ages 18 and 30, will seek to determine the minimal amount of virus necessary to cause an active, measurable infection.

Later in the spring, the scientists hope to enlist more volunteers, who will be inoculated with promising vaccines and then exposed to the virus to see how well the vaccines protect them.

----------------------------------------

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9415 on: October 20, 2020, 01:34:01 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

World and USA graphs attached.

We are not in a good place.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9416 on: October 20, 2020, 01:40:12 PM »
Quote
World and USA graphs attached.

We are not in a good place.
I'll say. They just go up exponentially. There isn't even a slowing during the summer that I can see.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Rodius

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9417 on: October 20, 2020, 02:13:23 PM »
Quote
World and USA graphs attached.

We are not in a good place.
I'll say. They just go up exponentially. There isn't even a slowing during the summer that I can see.

I said that last month..... I stand by it now.

We will reach 1.5 million dead this year.
And if the exponential keeps happening, we will reach 2 million (even though it looks like it cant happen, that is the nature of exponential growth)

harpy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9418 on: October 20, 2020, 02:36:47 PM »
Quote
The C-MORE study found that two to three months after the onset of the disease, 64% of patients experienced persistent breathlessness and 55% complained of significant fatigue.

On MRI, tissue signal abnormalities were seen in the lungs of 60% of the COVID-19 patients, in the kidneys of 29%, in the hearts of 26%, and the livers of 10%. Organ abnormalities were seen even in patients who had not been critically ill when admitted.

55% of people experience months of disability from an infection.

More contagious than smallpox.

Re-infection.

Spreads in the air.

No N95 masks available to purchase anywhere, flimsy masks don't offer us any protection.

Viable on surfaces for a week.

What we need to determine at this point is the extent of re-infection.  If 55%+ of all infected become disabled afterwards, what are the implications for the future of our dystopian mask wearing society?

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9419 on: October 20, 2020, 03:17:47 PM »
Quote
World and USA graphs attached.

We are not in a good place.
I'll say. They just go up exponentially. There isn't even a slowing during the summer that I can see.

I said that last month..... I stand by it now.

We will reach 1.5 million dead this year.
And if the exponential keeps happening, we will reach 2 million (even though it looks like it cant happen, that is the nature of exponential growth)

The cases perhaps looks like exponential growth but the deaths don't. After hitting 7k deaths a day they appear to have settled down in a 4.2k to 6k deaths per day.

1.13m deaths plus 5.5k deaths/day for 73 days = 1.5 m deaths by year end
This is more like a linear extrapolation and seems likely to happen.

To reach 2m cases per day would need an average of nearly 12k deaths per day. Only need the average to double the current rate which is easily doable with doubling rates we see in several european countries. I suspect it is harder to do that with worldwide rates: Once high rates are reached countries go into lockdown to prevent heath services being overwhelmed.

The typical delay from cases to deaths following the case pattern is 2 or 3 weeks. This isn't happening in world totals graphs. I suspect large part of this is an increase in testing finding more cases. So looking at the cases pattern and extrapolating is misleading. It seems more appropriate to me to look at the death pattern as not exponential and at end of year the deaths will be in the region of 1.5m near a linear death extrapolation pattern.

I would draw quite different conclusions for UK, Belgium, France, Italy and several other European countries where I would expect rapid increases in deaths over the next few weeks before some leveling off at a higher level.

Hopefully these will be offset by other countries getting outbreaks under control.

blu_ice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9420 on: October 20, 2020, 03:25:38 PM »

If that "insider" is not aware the there are no concerts or sports events in Sweden (since spring), they don't know anything.

But you just wrote Sweden didn't have restrictive measures in place?

It seems Swedish measures are at least as restrictive than in many other European countries. One could even think the failed herd-immunity strategy has been quietly switched to a suppression strategy.

The Walrus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9421 on: October 20, 2020, 03:29:26 PM »
Quote
World and USA graphs attached.

We are not in a good place.
I'll say. They just go up exponentially. There isn't even a slowing during the summer that I can see.

They are not going up exponentially.  The summer increase was due mainly to the virus reaching the southern hemisphere (the virus slower dramatically in the northern hemisphere).  The global death rate has been increasing almost linearly, although the increase during July and August was higher than that for September and October.

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9422 on: October 20, 2020, 04:07:54 PM »

If that "insider" is not aware the there are no concerts or sports events in Sweden (since spring), they don't know anything.

But you just wrote Sweden didn't have restrictive measures in place?

It seems Swedish measures are at least as restrictive than in many other European countries. One could even think the failed herd-immunity strategy has been quietly switched to a suppression strategy.

There are restrictions in Sweden for businesses, entertainment etc. For personal behaviour there is the "official advice". Compliance by the population is quite good, but it is not a police matter.

There was the official advice not to travel further than about one or two hours by car. This meant that people were not supposed to go to their summer cottage in the countryside with Easter or Ascension Day. If you did that anyway, you were frowned upon. For most Swedes, that induces compliance  :)

There was never a herd-immunity strategy in Sweden. The immediate purpose of measures in spring was to flatten the curve so that health care would not be overburdened. There may have been an expectation that basically everyone would be exposed to the virus, but that was not an aim. And it may still be true that it is unavoidable that most people will get exposed to this virus.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2020, 04:19:58 PM by pietkuip »

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9423 on: October 20, 2020, 06:53:17 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

UK Data 7 day trailing average
- new daily cases 18k,
- daily deaths 136.

recent daily data strongly suggest this will rise by a lot, especially as testing is increasing.
In my local area, rural & small towns,  hospitalisations rising very steeply.

Italy Data 7 day trailing average
- new daily cases nearly 10k,
- daily deaths 66.

recent daily data strongly suggest this will rise by a lot.

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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9424 on: October 20, 2020, 07:23:39 PM »


recent daily data strongly suggest this will rise by a lot, especially as testing is increasing.
In my local area, rural & small towns,  hospitalisations rising very steeply.


I reckon a plateau around 500 deaths/day for the winter is about the best that can be hoped for under current policy. 3 weeks to get there and really hard to see the curve bending off its exponential before then because infections in the over 60s are still exponential.


kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9425 on: October 20, 2020, 10:49:45 PM »
What we need to determine at this point is the extent of re-infection.  If 55%+ of all infected become disabled afterwards, what are the implications for the future of our dystopian mask wearing society?

The study involved 88 patients and controls. The 55% can clearly not be extrapolated to the general population so the claim that ´55%+ of all infected become disabled afterward´ does not hold true.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9426 on: October 20, 2020, 11:10:13 PM »
Is this new Europe wave due to a new virus strain? I definitely see a difference of Madrid 1.5 wave that is subsiding now (old virus strain?) with the swiftness of the pandemic in other regions and Europe in general since early October.

Just speculating, but I heard I believe like there was a new mutation around...

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9427 on: October 20, 2020, 11:11:51 PM »
What we need to determine at this point is the extent of re-infection.  If 55%+ of all infected become disabled afterwards, what are the implications for the future of our dystopian mask wearing society?

The study involved 88 patients and controls. The 55% can clearly not be extrapolated to the general population so the claim that ´55%+ of all infected become disabled afterward´ does not hold true.

While I agree 55% is not the extrapolation I would use, I have been pondering the issue of the effects of Covid in terms of damage done post-illness.

There will be more people who need to be cared for in the long term. Given the virus is likely to do the rounds, eventually the number of people needing care will increase while decreasing the people who can do it. This puts a strain on everything if the numbers become high enough.

I dont think this will be a serious issue, but I am beginning to see potential that after care could become something that needs significant resources in the years to come.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9428 on: October 21, 2020, 01:11:46 AM »
In two weeks, the daily reported UK death toll has more than tripled, from 76 to 241.

If this holds, in another two weeks, the daily death toll will be around 750, and in a month, the daily death toll will be 2K+.

Unfortunately, given the massive wave now underway across the UK, these numbers do not seem unfeasible. I anticipate a collapse of the healthcare system in most European countries beginning around November 1st. This will likely contribute to more deaths like what happened in NYC and CDMX.

The UK was reporting around 1,100 deaths a day at peak in spring, the same as NYC,which is 1/8th the size. It is not unfeasible that the peak of the primary wave will produce 5K+ daily deaths in the UK, though this would be an interval of about two weeks if it does occur. During the peak of the primary wave in NYC, about .1% of the city died in excess deaths per week.

A national equivalent would be about 60K excess weekly deaths in the UK for two weeks, or almost 10K excess deaths a day at peak.

There is still a possibility that a vaccine can be deployed effectively to limit the damage past peak but I think the numbers may now be indicating that the cascade is very well underway and much of the damage is already done in many of the EU (or formerly EU) nations.

It is France, Italy, as well now... probably Germany too if not in a week or two. France is at 2K new daily hospitalizations, same number as March 22nd, they were at 3,108 on March 29th, and 1.931 on 4/4. I do not think that the number two weeks from now will be lower, in fact I think it will be like 4-5K and then.... worse.

https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/vue-d-ensemble?location=FRA
« Last Edit: October 21, 2020, 01:22:07 AM by bbr2315 »

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9429 on: October 21, 2020, 02:51:54 AM »
CDC Finds 300,000 Excess Deaths In US
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm?s_cid=mm6942e2_w

The CDC has been tracking how many deaths have been reported and comparing them with counts seen in other years. Usually, between the beginning of February and the end of September, about 1.9 million deaths are reported. This year, it’s closer to 2.2 million - a 14.5% increase, AP reports.

The CDC says around 220,000 of the deaths are already attributed to coronavirus, but that the it’s likely Covid-19 was a factor in many other deaths, too. For example, someone with heart attack symptoms may have hesitated to go to a hospital that was busy with coronavirus patients.

The largest segment of the excess deaths, about 95,000, were in elderly people ages 75 to 84. That was 21.5% more than in a normal year. But the biggest relative increase, 26.5%, was in people ages 25 to 44. Deaths in people younger than 25 actually dropped slightly.

Deaths were up for different racial and ethnic groups, but the largest increase - 54% - was among Hispanic Americans.

The CDC found that excess deaths have occurred every week since March 2020 and reached their highest points in the weeks ended April 11 and Aug. 8.

... The new CDC data covers Feb. 1 to Oct. 3. Woolf said the total is likely to reach 400,000 by the end of the year. The numbers were assembled by the National Center for Health Statistics, a unit of the CDC.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-excess-deaths/2020/10/20/1e1d77c6-12e1-11eb-ba42-ec6a580836ed_story.html

------------------------------------

Covid-19 Likely to Become as ‘Endemic’ as Annual Flu Virus
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/20/covid-19-likely-to-become-as-endemic-as-flu.html

“We can’t be certain, but I think it’s unlikely we will end up with a truly sterilizing vaccine, (that is) something that completely stops infection, and it’s likely this disease will circulate and be endemic, that’s my best assessment,” Patrick Vallance, U.K.’s chief scientific advisor, told the National Security Strategy Committee in London on Monday.

“Clearly as management becomes better, as you get vaccination which would decrease the chance of infection and the severity of disease ... this then starts to look more like annual flu than anything else and that may be the direction we end up going,” he said.

A vaccine against the new coronavirus — and there are a handful in Phase 3 clinical trials, according to the World Health Organization — is not likely to eradicate the virus anyway, Vallance added.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9430 on: October 21, 2020, 02:55:57 AM »
Thanks for this, vox. I was about to post it myself.

Note from the first article: " Deaths in people younger than 25 actually dropped slightly."

Think about this. Probably these were from reductions in auto accidents, a major cause of preventable death in the US.

Probably there were also reductions in deaths from this cause in other age brackets as well.

That means that there could well have been over 300,000 deaths from covid in the US, right?
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9431 on: October 21, 2020, 06:53:34 AM »
Dear gerontocrat, thank you for all the informative graphs. If you have the time would you be willing to create your graphs for The Netherlands?

The Netherlands has ca. 8500 new cases per day now which is sort of the same as Italy, but Italy has 3.5 times as many inhabitants (60m vs 17.5m).

Many are sacrificed on the altar of GDP growth.

&

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9432 on: October 21, 2020, 07:22:28 AM »
Thanks for this, vox. I was about to post it myself.

Note from the first article: " Deaths in people younger than 25 actually dropped slightly."

Think about this. Probably these were from reductions in auto accidents, a major cause of preventable death in the US.

Probably there were also reductions in deaths from this cause in other age brackets as well.

That means that there could well have been over 300,000 deaths from covid in the US, right?

It's complicated. There will have been a drop in deaths from road traffic collisions and probably a drop in deaths from air pollution (although the extent of wildfires this year muddies the picture slightly). But there's also some evidence that there has been a rise in suicides in what has been a very tough year for many people.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9433 on: October 21, 2020, 07:37:56 AM »
I want to see the evidence for rising suicides and its significance on this "excess death " number.

I see people claim that often. 9 months have already past, 6 months since the worst shutdowns, plenty of time to gather and publish excess suicides, if there are any, and other pandemic related fatalities.

I believe that given the level of inactivity, mortality should have significantly decreased ( sans killer virus). Excess death is likely an undercount of Covid 19 related fatalities. But I would like to see data confirm or deny my beliefs on this.
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Paddy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9434 on: October 21, 2020, 07:56:38 AM »
Proper US national data on suicide won't be published until 2022 or so. But there are a number of indicators that rates are increasing:

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/micaelaburrow/2020/07/28/redfield-says-more-abovebase-suicides-than-covid-deaths-n2573278

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/08/13/cdc-mental-health-pandemic-394832

Gerntocratis#1

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9435 on: October 21, 2020, 08:24:42 AM »
Many studies only a google search away show a significant rise in overdoses and suicides since the pandemic lockdowns started. Its really not hard to believe, many have lost their livelihoods, isolated from loved ones, can't do activities that they are passionate about. This leads to depression and drug use not to mention other unhealthy behaviors caused by boredom and depression.

Another cause for the excess deaths are people with health problems are more reluctant to go to a hospital filled with covid patients. If people who are suffering from strokes or heart attacks and not going to hospitals because they are scared of covid, that's going to cause a significant rise in excess deaths as speedy medical intervention can go a long way in lowering the fatality rate of these health problems. Especially considering heart disease and stroke are the #1 killer worldwide for 15 years straight.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9436 on: October 21, 2020, 10:26:00 AM »
Regarding the excess deaths I'm also wondering how long it will take until this 'dying WITH Covid-19' tale stops. The very high death rates are quite some time ago, and if people would have died anyway - why else saying 'with Covid-19' - this should lower the excess death rate after a couple of months, as this should be the time when they 'would have died anyway'. But we don't see that. So the death caused by Covid-19 is at least more that just a couple of months to early.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9437 on: October 21, 2020, 12:35:06 PM »
Regarding the excess deaths I'm also wondering how long it will take until this 'dying WITH Covid-19' tale stops. The very high death rates are quite some time ago, and if people would have died anyway - why else saying 'with Covid-19' - this should lower the excess death rate after a couple of months, as this should be the time when they 'would have died anyway'. But we don't see that. So the death caused by Covid-19 is at least more that just a couple of months to early.

A drop in the excess is visible in those that weren't counted. Those that were certified as COVID deaths generally weren't about to die. Its probably harder to spot in US data due to the peak being more spread out but its quite obvious in the UK.
e.g. Alzheimers deaths show a big excess during the peak month in the UK, but have been lower than normal since. This may well change as the second wave mortality starts to appear in the statistics. The same with quite a few other terminal illnesses (Parkinson's, cancer). If someone was obviously about to die from Alzheimers, COVID very rarely got put on the death certificate, from Alzheimers with COVID is a tiny fraction of the excess.
There are signs of excess deaths due to lack of care in the heart attack statistics and a few other causes but at least in the UK, bowel obstructions have had more effect on the excess death statistics than suicides have.
There are also signs of people surviving longer with terminal illness due to not going to hospital to die. COVID has meant that a lot more of them die at home, and a lot less in hospital, than used to be the case, and it looks to me that they are living a little longer than they used to.

Weekly data on excess mortality and a recent report on private homes in particular.
https://fingertips.phe.org.uk/static-reports/mortality-surveillance/excess-mortality-in-england-latest.html
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsinprivatehomesenglandandwalesprovisional/deathsregisteredfrom28december2019to11september2020

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9438 on: October 21, 2020, 12:42:24 PM »
Paddy - just a caution on using townhall.com as a news source ...

From https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/townhall/

Townhall - Media Bias/Fact Check

QUESTIONABLE SOURCE
A questionable source exhibits one or more of the following: extreme bias, consistent promotion of propaganda/conspiracies, poor or no sourcing to credible information, a complete lack of transparency and/or is fake news.
Fake News is the deliberate attempt to publish hoaxes and/or disinformation for the purpose of profit or influence (Learn More). Sources listed in the Questionable Category may be very untrustworthy and should be fact checked on a per article basis. Please note sources on this list are not considered fake news unless specifically written in the reasoning section for that source.

Overall, we rate Townhall Right Biased and Questionable based on consistent one-sided reporting that always favors the right and numerous failed fact checks.

History

Founded in 1995, Townhall is an American politically conservative website and print magazine that was previously published by the Heritage Foundation. In 2006, Townhall was purchased by Salem Media Group. According to their about page “Townhall.com is the #1 conservative website. Townhall.com pulls together political commentary and analysis from over 100 leading columnists and opinion leaders, research from 100 partner organizations, conservative talk-radio, and a community of millions of grassroots conservatives.” TownHall.com features commentary by various conservative columnists and guest commentary by politicians. Weekly contributors include Ben Shapiro, Michelle Malkin, Ann Coulter, Marina Medvin, John Stossel, Dennis Prager, and others. Guest contributors have included Eric Trump, Donald Trump Jr., and Lara Trump. The current editor is Jonathan Garthwaite

Funded by / Ownership

Townhall is owned by Salem Media Group, which owns numerous right-leaning Christian based radio stations across the USA. According to Open Secrets Salem Media Group donates 100% to Republicans and right-leaning PACS. The website is funded through online advertising.

Analysis / Bias

In review, Townhall almost exclusively publishes news articles that favor conservatives and utilizes strongly loaded language such as this: Shove It, House Democrats: Another Trump-Russia Story Blows Up. This story is sourced to the left-leaning Axios and right-leaning Fox News. In another article with loaded language, by Rush Limbaugh’s brother David: Abortion Extremism Exposing Left’s Moral Contradictions, there is not a single source listed to support Mr. Limbaugh’s claims.

In general, Townhall presents story selection that always favors the right and uses negative wording to describe the left. There is little balance in story presentation with all information favoring the right without presenting a left perspective or counter-argument. The opinion columnists associated with Townhall have poor fact check records such as Michelle Malkin, Ann Coulter, and Ben Shapiro. Straight news reporting is generally sourced properly and factual, though worded to favor the right, while guest blog posts have a very poor track record with fact-checkers.
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9439 on: October 21, 2020, 12:51:12 PM »
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54622059

Who is more likely to get Long Covid? Analysis of the UK symptom tracker app data gives an indication of the scale and risks.

Mostly its the same risk factors for death, but death is more common in males and Long Covid in females.

Quote
The study estimates:

One in seven people is ill for at least four weeks
One in 20 people is ill for at least eight weeks
One in 45 people is ill for at least 12 weeks


Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9440 on: October 21, 2020, 01:18:10 PM »
I was going to say. Linking Townhall as a reference for coronavirus is like asking for a reference on climate change and linking WUWT.

The reality is that even if the suicide rate increases, the net increase is very likely to be small relative to the impact of Coronavirus and other diseases.

I looked for reliable data on suicides, but I can't find hard data. I find a million papers describing an expected increase in stress with C19, but I find no papers with actual data for the year.

My bet? Suicides may be up or down, but the demographics of suicides may show a significant but not huge change. 

Linking coronavirus restrictions to an increase in suicides is misinformation designed to avoid restrictions that could have ended this pandemic already.
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Paddy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9441 on: October 21, 2020, 01:26:16 PM »
Sorry, I got lazy.  The evidence I've generally seen is more for general worse mental health outcomes, e.g. higher depression incidence at present; the evidence for suicide deaths itself isn't in yet: http://blogs.biomedcentral.com/on-health/2020/09/08/suicide-in-the-era-of-covid-19/

We'll have to wait and see, really.  I'd also be a tad worried about increased gun deaths in the imminent future in the US, given how strong gun sales have been this year.  https://www.ft.com/content/b351aa1c-5fe2-4196-9b69-f5a570c91dd1

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9442 on: October 21, 2020, 01:40:45 PM »
Re: Suicides

The right is manipulating a Congressional Research Service report: Trends in Active-Duty Military Deaths Since 2006 to suggest that COVID-19 is the cause of increased suicides amongst the military.

Nowhere in the CRS report does it explicitly say that COVID-19 is the cause of increased self-harm.

https://fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/IF10899.pdf

Quote
... Of the 17,645 deaths of U.S. military personnel in all countries since 2006, a full 24% of them were “self-inflicted,” according to updated data from the Department of Defense as reported by the Congressional Research Service.

“Self-inflicted” here means suicide as well as death due to alcohol or substance abuse. See Trends in Active-Duty Military Deaths Since 2006, CRS In Focus, updated July 1, 2020.
https://fas.org/blogs/secrecy/2020/07/military-deaths-trends/

More likely, soldiers are killing themselves because they realize that they can be sent into harm's way by a clueless man-child, with pre-dementia, who believes that they are 'suckers' and 'losers'; or that they will be asked to fight their fellow countrymen  or separate children from their parents at the border.

There is an uptick in opiate use, but we can thank Purdue Pharma for that.

p.s. I agree on the gun deaths

There will be blood!

« Last Edit: October 21, 2020, 01:48:18 PM by vox_mundi »
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Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9443 on: October 21, 2020, 02:49:46 PM »
More likely, soldiers are killing themselves because they realize that they can be sent into harm's way by a clueless man-child, with pre-dementia, who believes that they are 'suckers' and 'losers'; or that they will be asked to fight their fellow countrymen  or separate children from their parents at the border.

Hopefully, with a determined electorate and a little luck, Hair Furor's reign of terror will be over shortly.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9444 on: October 21, 2020, 05:34:21 PM »
In two weeks, the daily reported UK death toll has more than tripled, from 76 to 241.

If this holds, in another two weeks, the daily death toll will be around 750, and in a month, the daily death toll will be 2K+.

Unfortunately, given the massive wave now underway across the UK, these numbers do not seem unfeasible. I anticipate a collapse of the healthcare system in most European countries beginning around November 1st. This will likely contribute to more deaths like what happened in NYC and CDMX.

The UK was reporting around 1,100 deaths a day at peak in spring, the same as NYC,which is 1/8th the size. It is not unfeasible that the peak of the primary wave will produce 5K+ daily deaths in the UK, though this would be an interval of about two weeks if it does occur. During the peak of the primary wave in NYC, about .1% of the city died in excess deaths per week.

A national equivalent would be about 60K excess weekly deaths in the UK for two weeks, or almost 10K excess deaths a day at peak.

There is still a possibility that a vaccine can be deployed effectively to limit the damage past peak but I think the numbers may now be indicating that the cascade is very well underway and much of the damage is already done in many of the EU (or formerly EU) nations.

It is France, Italy, as well now... probably Germany too if not in a week or two. France is at 2K new daily hospitalizations, same number as March 22nd, they were at 3,108 on March 29th, and 1.931 on 4/4. I do not think that the number two weeks from now will be lower, in fact I think it will be like 4-5K and then.... worse.

https://dashboard.covid19.data.gouv.fr/vue-d-ensemble?location=FRA

Selecting two data points and extrapolating makes for poor statistics.  The current rise is much slower than the spring rise, and as such, I would expect the weekly deaths to be much lower. 

gerontocrat

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9445 on: October 21, 2020, 06:44:13 PM »
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

ITALY and UK daily New cases and Deaths graphs. (7 day trailing average)

I have had to change the Daily New cases scale on both these graphs due to the very fast increases in the daily data.
I had thought that could wait until November but... events, events.

Let us hope the same will not apply to the daily deaths scale.
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9446 on: October 22, 2020, 01:06:25 AM »
Brazilian Volunteer In Oxford AstraZeneca Coronavirus Vaccine Trial Dies
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/21/astrazeneca-shares-slide-after-brazilian-health-authority-says-volunteer-in-covid-vaccine-study-dies.html

A volunteer in a clinical trial for a Covid-19 vaccine made by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford has died, Reuters reports, citing Brazilian health authority Anvisa.

Oxford said there are no concerns regarding the safety of the trial and the health authority said the trial would continue.

The volunteer was Brazilian, the Federal University of Sao Paulo said, according to Reuters. The university is helping to coordinate phase 3 clinical trials in Brazil.

CNN Brasil reported that the volunteer was a 28-year-old man who lived in Rio de Janeiro and died from Covid-19 complications.

------------------------------------

CDC Sees ‘Distressing Trend’ in U.S. Outbreak
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/21/coronavirus-cdc-says-us-is-seeing-distressing-trend-in-outbreak.html



A Centers for Disease Control and Prevention official said the U.S. coronavirus outbreak is rapidly expanding with Covid-19 cases now growing “really in all parts of the country.”

The U.S. is now reporting roughly 60,000 new Covid-19 cases daily, growing nearly 17% compared with a week ago, according to a CNBC analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

“Unfortunately, we are seeing a distressing trend here in the United States,” Jay Butler, the CDC’s deputy director for infectious diseases, told reporters on a call.

The U.S. still has the worst outbreak in the world, with more than 8.2 million cases and at least 221,122 deaths, according to Hopkins data.

Health officials and infectious disease experts fear the situation could become dire as flu season begins and hospitals risk reaching capacity.



Runaway clusterfuck heading our way.

... States have less than two weeks to set up vaccine distribution centers across the country to meet the Nov. 1 deadline set by the CDC — a monumental undertaking made even more difficult by the fact that a vaccine hasn’t been cleared by the Food and Drug Administration and clinical trials of two of the four leading candidates have been halted.

The agency will be providing feedback in the next two weeks, Butler said Wednesday, and the plans are “flexible” as health officials “learn more about which vaccines become available in what amount and when.”

--------------------------------------

New Jersey Gov. Murphy in quarantine after contact with positive staff member

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy has canceled all in-person events and will voluntarily quarantine at home through the weekend after coming into contact with a staff member who tested positive for the coronavirus, according to a statement from his office.

The member of Murphy’s senior staff who tested positive is at home and contact tracing efforts are underway.

-------------------------------------------------

Alabama Lieutenant Governor Tests Positive for Coronavirus

Alabama’s lieutenant governor, who has called the state’s mask order a government overstep, announced Wednesday that he has tested positive for Covid-19.

Republican Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth said he had a positive test result but so far, he has no symptoms. He said he took the test after being notified Wednesday that a member of his Sunday school church group had acquired the coronavirus. Ainsworth has criticised mandatory mask orders, although he says he personally wears one.

---------------------------------------------------

« Last Edit: October 22, 2020, 02:34:28 AM by vox_mundi »
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9447 on: October 22, 2020, 01:37:00 AM »
Thanks for this, vox. I was about to post it myself.

Note from the first article: " Deaths in people younger than 25 actually dropped slightly."

Think about this. Probably these were from reductions in auto accidents, a major cause of preventable death in the US.

Probably there were also reductions in deaths from this cause in other age brackets as well.

That means that there could well have been over 300,000 deaths from covid in the US, right?

Forget suicides for this - probably quite relevant to young people so adequately covered by method.

In young people, auto accidents will be a high proportion of deaths of that age group.

In older people heart problems and cancer and similar are much more relevant.

If people have been less willing to seek medical attention for fear of covid (perhaps also reduced availability if they do choose to seek attention), then I would suspect heart and cancer deaths will have risen and quite possibly by more than road traffic deaths have fallen. This won't show up by just looking at rate of young people deaths.

So your method of looking at younger people death rate as proxy for older people doesn't work. While I suspect your conclusion is suspect, more analysis of other causes of death would be needed to reach a supported position.

Or perhaps these increased heart and cancer deaths are indirectly 'due to covid' getting us back to your 'more than the excess deaths' conclusion?

bbr2315

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9448 on: October 22, 2020, 04:49:57 AM »
The epidemic is exploding. It appears all the lockdowns have been for naught. Oh well. Lessons learned, LoL right?



Czechia, lauded for its containment efforts in springtime in the media, had 15K new cases yesterday or ~0.15% of its total population. In another week it should be at 20K+, in another week, 30K? So .3% a day by then. I would figure the maximum will be within a week or three of that point because I believe NYC maxed at about 5% of its population infected at once per modeling (in Czechia that would be like 500K infections / at 14 days to resolve... the impending max is like 40K-50K a day probably).

The exponential death increase is well underway now as well, in the last week Czechia's deaths increased by almost 50% as a whole. Remember that hospitalizations and deaths LAG confirmed tests and confirmed tests LAG actual cases so when things are getting horrible in a hurry the data does not show it quite accurately as it happens either because our aforementioned indicators are lagging not predictive.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #9449 on: October 22, 2020, 04:22:28 PM »
The epidemic is exploding. It appears all the lockdowns have been for naught. Oh well. Lessons learned, LoL right?


Lockdowns are what countries do when they have failed to implement what is needed to check the spread.

Case in point...South Korea...

To prevent community transmission, you need widespread testing, contact tracing and quarantines. Also need the entire population to engage in safe practices that are recommended by epidemiologists. Mask wearing, hand washing and social distancing are proven to be effective in slowing transmission.

South Korea did this masterfully. Their first confirmed case was on the exact same day as in the U.S. They have had 25,000 confirmed cases and 453 deaths. They also never completely shut down their economy. Even restaurants and bars stayed open although at reduced capacity.

The buffoon in charge of the U.S. and his administration still publicly question the efficacy of masks. The U.S. now has community transmission established across the entire country with no ability to implement widespread testing, contact tracing and quarantining. Nearly 230K dead and at least another couple of hundred thousand until we throw the asshole out of office and, hopefully, into prison.