COVID-19

[Jim Hunt]

So you are there for a coronal.
Maybe it is better for your heart to avoid the news.

Hope everything will be allright.

Thanks very much for your kind words pietkuip.

I'm home once again now, and up and about in the small hours (UTC) since amongst other things my last dose of pain relief was well over 6 hours ago.

Meanwhile: https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/1323109831167848448

[nanning]

Glad you're out of hospital Jim. Advise: stay away from election news as it will be hard on your heart.
--

The Netherlands
https://nlcovid-19-esrinl-content.hub.arcgis.com/

You'd say that they learned their lesson from the first wave and would have immediately taken action at the end of September. I've been surprised for over a month by the lack of action. Now the 2nd wave is larger than the first. Perhaps they have adopted 'massaging the death numbers'? We have no independent institutes.

[El Cid]

Now the 2nd wave is larger than the first. Perhaps they have adopted 'massaging the death numbers'? We have no independent institutes.[/i]

all over the world the second wave is similar:
- mostly younger people get it, so mortality is way down
- there is also more testing capacity, so more cases are found than before
- and finally: it is still going up, and median mortality from infection is close to a month, so death numbers will still go way up

[Archimid]

and median mortality from infection is close to a month, so death numbers will still go way up

Average serum Vitamin D will keep falling until March. This may extend hospital stays and increase the fatality rate.

Really, the west is not in a good spot. It looks to me like the virus is "thoroughly mixed" in the US.  As winter sets the onslaught will be national unless it is stopped.

This very much depends on what happens in November 3rd.

A blue win means science and knowledge wins, whatever is left of the CDC gets activated and we may get a coherent response in the US. By spring this nightmare may be behind us.

A red win means obscurantism wins. Scientific institutions will be figuratively burned down in the US.  We will find out the threshold of herd immunity. We'll lose several forum members and real-life friends and family. We may have to risk a 1 in 500 risk of death every time we go out for a few more years.

[El Cid]

As winter sets the onslaught will be national unless it is stopped.

This very much depends on what happens in November 3rd.

A blue win means science and knowledge wins, whatever is left of the CDC gets activated and we may get a coherent response in the US. By spring this nightmare may be behind us.

Herd immunity is politicians' solution and  by the look of it and there will be no Biden administration until January even if he wins. By the end of the year cca 20% of Europe and the USA will have been infected. By the end of January likely more.
And most definitely this will be over by spring (although a 3rd wave could still happen in April by my calculations depending on what and how we do now)

[vox_mundi]

Experimental Hormone Therapy May Speed Recovery for COVID Patients
https://m.startribune.com/hormone-boost-could-be-covid-19-key/572944532/

Dr. Tim Rich and the University of Minnesota’s Dr. David Ingbar had studied for years whether a common thyroid hormone (T3, triiodothyronine) could be repurposed for the treatment of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), an often fatal type of lung failure in COVID-19.

Rich and Ingbar made a key discovery during the H1N1 pandemic of 2009, when families of those who died from influenza-related ARDS permitted autopsies. Rich found the victims’ lungs lacked T3, a thyroid hormone that would normally be detectable.

Ingbar said T3 reduces inflammation and coaxes epithelial cells in the lungs to absorb fluids — which is vital for patients with ARDS.

“A part of this acute lung injury with ARDS from COVID-19 is the lungs get leaky, and they tend to fill with fluid,” Ingbar said. “That makes it really hard to get oxygen in or carbon dioxide out.”

“There has been a lot of highly technical science to understand this biology, but the elegance now is in its simplicity,” said Rich, a pulmonologist. “This is not a designer drug. This is something we know the lung needs and uses.

ARDS stems from a variety of causes, including heat, physical trauma or inhaled substances. Research showed that any such lung injury produces more of an enzyme that breaks down T3.

“There’s a real local destruction of the hormone that explains why its concentration is so low,” Ingbar said.

Doctors administer the hormone directly to a patient’s lungs through a breathing tube. That is a novel part of this study, as sick people have received thyroid hormones for years, but never straight into their lungs in this manner.

... “This is really a much faster recovery than we see with typical ARDS,” said Ingbar, noting that many survivors have lung scarring that can cause breathing problems for years and the need for supplemental oxygen.

“Any survival of ARDS, especially this COVID ARDS, is exciting, but it’s not enough to survive,” Rich said. “It’s to not have the morbidity of a compromised lung for the rest of your life.”

The U’s Center for Translational Medicine is working to produce a patented powder T3 formulation. That inhaled or nebulized form would be cheaper and easier to administer, meaning more patients could receive it if it proves safe and effective

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triiodothyronine

[Jim Hunt]

Glad you're out of hospital Jim. Advise: stay away from election news as it will be hard on your heart.

Thanks very much Nanning, both for your good wishes and no doubt sound advice. However I fear I'll be getting up to speed on Arctic, Covid and election news regardless.

When I'd finished my "Covid UK front line" article the nurse who looked after me on Saturday night told me she'd had Covid in March. The nurse who looked after me on Sunday morning told me she'd had Covid in April.

100% out of a (very!) small sample.

[Archimid]

Herd immunity is politicians' solution and  by the look of it and there will be no Biden administration until January even if he wins.

Trump's transition is unimaginable but given that his focus will be to simultaneously try to steal the election while covering his many crimes and at the same time hospitals and morgues will be overwhelmed, I think the CDC will be allowed to work and Trump cronies, at least in the CDC may run for the hills. 

Because C19 is not magic, but its contagiousness depends on our actions, activating the CDC should save hundreds of thousands of American lives and lower r.

By the end of the year cca 20% of Europe and the USA will have been infected. By the end of January likely more.

That depends mostly on the actions taken by each country. 20% may already be there in some places

And most definitely this will be over by spring (although a 3rd wave could still happen in April by my calculations depending on what and how we do now)

See the Sweden and Norway examples. Their epidemics were both over by the summer. Norway had 200 deaths and Sweden had 5000 deaths with half the population. The choice is the same for the US.

Do we want a few thousand more deaths by January, or do we want a quarter million more? That's decided on November 3rd.

[pietkuip]

Do we want a few thousand more deaths by January, or do we want a quarter million more? That's decided on November 3rd.

Transfer of power is in January. The election won't make a big difference until then.

all over the world the second wave is similar:
- mostly younger people get it, so mortality is way down
- there is also more testing capacity, so more cases are found than before
- and finally: it is still going up, and median mortality from infection is close to a month, so death numbers will still go way up

Chris Whitty showed interesting data (too much for the political journalists).
The heatmaps show clearly how the virus spreads from young adults to older age groups.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-31-october-2020

[kassy]

Please keep on topic, there is a whole forum for the elections below.

[Archimid]

<Election related conjecture removed. kassy>

[El Cid]

Christ Whitty showed interesting data (too much for the political journalists).
The heatmaps show clearly how the virus spreads from young adults to older age groups.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-31-october-2020

Great charts! Clearly showing why mortality is still quite low (but will go up); that old people will not be protected but they will only get it later; that even with an R around 1, hospitalization numbers will keep going up for long

[harpy]

Rapid Decay of Anti–SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in Persons with Mild Covid-19

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2025179

which corresponds to a half-life of approximately 36 days over the observation period (Figure 1A).

Our findings raise concern that humoral immunity against SARS-CoV-2 may not be long lasting in persons with mild illness, who compose the majority of persons with Covid-19. It is difficult to extrapolate beyond our observation period of approximately 90 days because it is likely that the decay will decelerate.3 Still, the results call for caution regarding antibody-based “immunity passports,” herd immunity, and perhaps vaccine durability, especially in light of short-lived immunity against common human coronaviruses.

[SimonF92]

Rapid Decay of Anti–SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in Persons with Mild Covid-19

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2025179

which corresponds to a half-life of approximately 36 days over the observation period (Figure 1A).

Our findings raise concern that humoral immunity against SARS-CoV-2 may not be long lasting in persons with mild illness, who compose the majority of persons with Covid-19. It is difficult to extrapolate beyond our observation period of approximately 90 days because it is likely that the decay will decelerate.3 Still, the results call for caution regarding antibody-based “immunity passports,” herd immunity, and perhaps vaccine durability, especially in light of short-lived immunity against common human coronaviruses.

Herd/population-level immunty are phrases which themselves have decayed over the last few months.

The new buzz word is "vaccine", but I dont think thats going to carry much weight in 6 months either.

[Archimid]

<Yes Trump sucks but we don´t need that explained. kassy>

[Shared Humanity]

Most of the evidence refutes this assertion. The largest summer outbreaks were in southern cities while most of the BLM protests were in northern cities. People heading inside to seek relief from the summer heat across the southern tier of the US is likely more responsible for the summer wave.

And it was a hot summer.

[kassy]

Let´s look at meaningful things related to covid... and if someone says something stupid refute it with data or report it just don´t follow them down some off topic discussion, thx.

[vox_mundi]

Manchester Ambulance Service Declares ’Major Incident” Due to High Volume of Calls
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-britain-manchester/manchester-ambulance-service-declares-major-incident-over-volume-of-calls-idUKKBN27I2H7?il=0

The ambulance service in Manchester, England has declared a ’major incident” due to a very high volume of calls, Reuters reported.

The service said it had received 2,266 emergency calls in eight hours, an increase of 36% compared with the same time on the previous Monday. It said COVID-19 accounted for approximately 15% of the activity.

https://mobile.twitter.com/NWAmbulance/status/1323331716354772994

North West Ambulance Service
@NWAmbulance

⚠️We've declared a major incident due to the high level of calls. For enquiries relating to this incident, please follow us here/our Facebook page.

⚠️If your call is not life-threatening, you may be asked to seek an alternative source of care or make your way to hospital.

“We are exceptionally busy this evening,” North West Ambulance Service said on Twitter. “We are trying our best to reach patients as soon as we possibly can.”

A number of paramedics are isolating because of covid, the Manchester Evening News reported.

Greater Manchester is facing a lockdown under new rules imposed by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson after coronavirus cases in his country saw a major spike.

The area is currently at the “Very High” alert level, the highest of three levels in England’s new tiered response to the pandemic, Reuters said.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Conte thinks megadoses of Vitamin D is the solution. I am not so sanguine.

Choose: Mandatory Vaccine, Mandatory Shutdown, Mandatory Vitamin D
https://ronconte.com/2020/11/02/choose-mandatory-vaccine-mandatory-shutdown-mandatory-vitamin-d/

As of October 31st, it is proven that Covid-19 is seasonal and will be much worse in Winter. Therefore, we have only three options to stop the number of cases from rising so high that it overwhelms the healthcare system and the hospitals, causing a Healthcare Shutdown with a resultant massive death toll this winter

I suspect that a healthcare shutdown, with a stricter economic shutdown threatening food production/distribution breakdown a possible accompaniment is all too likely.

[Shared Humanity]

Top Trump adviser bluntly contradicts president on covid-19 threat, urging all-out response

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/11/02/deborah-birx-covid-trump/

“This is not about lockdowns … It’s about an aggressive balanced approach that is not being implemented,’ says internal White House report that challenges many of Trump’s pronouncements.

[Rodius]

Iets face the facts, George Floyed died on the 25th of May. 14 days later the 2th wave starts in the US. And where did they had a 2th wave like that in the NH in summer 

The 2nd wave in the US occurred in AZ, FL, LA, MS, etc. ...  i.e. the US South where hot humid weather forces everyone inside to air-conditioning.

The Midwest and Northeast had declining cases during the summer. The states of MN, WI, NY, IL all declined. All had large BLM rallies. All rallies had masks mandated by peer pressure, essentially.

Outdoor mass gatherings while wearing masks are riskier than staying home alone, but are much safer than indoor dining and bars. In the South, all the Trumpers, GOPers, and COVID deniers came out of their isolation and went to indoor dining and bars. They spread COVID far and wide during the summer. BLM rallies occurred in the South, but they were not large, did not last long (too hot), all participants were near 100% masked, and did not spread COVID.

Your pouty political spin on BLM as the cause of COVID spread is roundly refuted by the facts on the ground.

Melbourne had a similar thing happen.
Just before the outbreak here there were protests concerning BLM with a strong focus on Indigenous rights.
Most people wore masks and did social distancing, it was really great to see.
Anyway.... a couple of weeks later the outbreak happened and Murdoch media blamed the marches for it.
Science leaps it and proves without a doubt that nobody from the BLM marches even had Covid and the tracing of DNA didn't lead back to anyone in the protests.
It was a Murpdoch/political motive to blame non-White people for the outbreak.

Ironically, it turns out it was several White people who set the outbreak off... some knew they were sick, the others not. But not a peep about their skin color and the Murdoch media ran the articles blaming the protests for weeks after it was shown to be completely untrue.

But, the truth doesn't matter, those who wanted to blame non-White people were convinced and decided that anything against their thinking was just a conspiracy.

It is truly sad that this shit just keeps happening and that so many people believe it.

[Alexander555]

You guys are worse than  cnn. And what does the airco has to do with it?

[Rodius]

You guys are worse than  cnn. And what does the airco has to do with it?

Can you be specific in what you mean so replies can be given?

[El Cid]

You guys are worse than  cnn. And what does the airco has to do with it?

To misquote the "Good the Bad and the Ugly":

"You know my friend, there are two kinds of people in this world: The ones who listen to science and reason, and the ones who are misled by populists"

[The Walrus]

So the summer rise was people indoors for air conditioning? That means when we go indoors for the winter there will be an even larger surge?

That was the theory back in August, and the data seems to support it still.  States like Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas peaked in July and have fewer cases today.  Conversely, the highest increases in caseloads are in Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, Connecticut, Maine, Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Alaska.  Cases are increasing rapidly in these states, and winter has not even hit yet.

[SteveMDFP]

Indeed, basically everyone was exposed to polio. Today, with PCR, they would be counted as "cases". Diagnostics of heart damage etc was less advanced back then.
 

Do you have evidence for that?  Polio is spread by the fecal-oral route.  If there was that much fecal-oral transmission going on in the 1950s, we'd have had simultaneous mass epidemics of cholera, dysentery, and typhoid.  We didn't.

What the world has gained by striving to control outbreaks of Covid is a much lower mortality rate now than we had in the spring.  With further incremental improvements in treatment, we can look forward to further taming of this disease.  At some point, it may indeed be reasonable to "let it rip."  But not now.  Except, perhaps, in Africa.  For reasons nobody seems to understand, it's not been a virulent infection there.

Yes, lives have been disrupted some.  Essential economic activities, however, have been largely uninterrupted.  Nations that have had a less rigorous approach to control have not had less severe economic damage. The world has lost very little by the interruption of the tourist industry, for example. The right approach to the economic suffering is not to let the epidemic flourish, but to provide something like a Universal Basic Income.

Maybe Africa is predominantly young, and not obese.... and the infections aren't recorded anyways when malaria, HIV, etc are killing way more as-is.

Saying "we don't know why Africa has no cases" is intellectual dishonesty.

No, it's not intellectual dishonesty on my part.   A range of hypothesis have been offered in the literature.  You've described just two.  But these are only hypotheses.  We don't have meaningful answers for these hypotheses yet.

I'd provide more details, but you've steered the thread off-topic already.

[Archimid]

We discussed here and we all watched for it. BLM protests had almost no impact. Why? It was hot, it was outside, and they were mostly young people wearing masks.

There is a clear and significant negative correlation between the percentage of a
state’s population who reported protesting and the subsequent increase in cases of
COVID-19. Thus, for example, Washington D.C., which had by far the highest reported
participation rates in the protests at 13.7%, had a relatively low increase in cases during
this period. A fuller analysis -- again, beyond the scope of this report -- requires
incorporation of the various factors that have driven the surge of cases the last two
months, such as changes in mobility and adherence to health guidelines (such as mask
wearing) by the broader population in each state, and a variety of state policies. For
example, our data also indicate that individuals in states with higher levels of protests also
had higher levels of compliance with mask wearing (Figure 9).

https://kateto.net/covid19/COVID19%20CONSORTIUM%20REPORT%2010%20PROTEST%20AUGUST%202020.pdf

Basically masks work if you wear them. That's why BLM didn't produce as much covid as Bar openings.

Alexander555 seems to enjoy taking racially charged stabs. Which is fine, people can't help being who they are. What makes me mad is that they act all offended when we call them Nazis. Go ahead be racist, but then don't complain when I declare you a Nazi. Have some self-respect.

[gandul]

Madrid continues its improvement (current reproductive number is 0.8 ). It’s interesting to note that life has not changed very much with last efforts since September, no home quarantines. Main change in Spain happened in late October when a curfew from 22-24 to 6 was mandated. Too late to explain Madrid improvement.

Which means we got past a very bad wave in August-September and that politicians are not responsible of the epidemics self-abatement.

The age bands color graph shown by another poster before may well explain what’s going on. The 15-30 year old population may be the main source of super spreaders and spreaders in general, and that source might have been exhausted in Madrid as that age band reaches a significant percentage of accumulated incidence. I hope so. I hope it is also a self-regulating mechanism for the infection propagation for any country or community in general.

I estimate Madrid must have reached a 25% level of antibody positive population based on past antibody studies that already placed that number on 10-15%, and on the high number of cases accumulated during the second wave.

The number in first graph below is new cases per day per million habitants.

[gandul]

Really, save the Nazi label for National Socialists, especially German. Not all racists are Nazis. If you use it for people who are prejudiced against people of another race, it dilutes the special quality of the Third Reich.

Really?
Why are we discussing nazis in the covid-19 thread?

[Alexander555]

We discussed here and we all watched for it. BLM protests had almost no impact. Why? It was hot, it was outside, and they were mostly young people wearing masks.

There is a clear and significant negative correlation between the percentage of a
state’s population who reported protesting and the subsequent increase in cases of
COVID-19. Thus, for example, Washington D.C., which had by far the highest reported
participation rates in the protests at 13.7%, had a relatively low increase in cases during
this period. A fuller analysis -- again, beyond the scope of this report -- requires
incorporation of the various factors that have driven the surge of cases the last two
months, such as changes in mobility and adherence to health guidelines (such as mask
wearing) by the broader population in each state, and a variety of state policies. For
example, our data also indicate that individuals in states with higher levels of protests also
had higher levels of compliance with mask wearing (Figure 9).

https://kateto.net/covid19/COVID19%20CONSORTIUM%20REPORT%2010%20PROTEST%20AUGUST%202020.pdf

Basically masks work if you wear them. That's why BLM didn't produce as much covid as Bar openings.

Alexander555 seems to enjoy taking racially charged stabs. Which is fine, people can't help being who they are. What makes me mad is that they act all offended when we call them Nazis. Go ahead be racist, but then don't complain when I declare you a Nazi. Have some self-respect.

Maybe i'm at the right place here for some racial stuff. We have a tread about a drug addicted violent homejacker like George Phloyed. But no tread about a beheaded teacher Samuel Paty defending free speech. And let me tell you something about your illegal brothers. We have several of them at work. And for the moment they are all active on social media to boycot French. Because you have to understand they insulted the prophet. A bunch of illegal lunatics that exploited people like you, and now turn against you. Because you can not argue with them, the prophet is above everything. I feel sorry for these old femenised man like you, and especially for the people you will leave behind. But you are from Puerto Rico, is'nt it. So maybe you dont even understand about what i'm talking.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Really, save the Nazi label for National Socialists, especially German. Not all racists are Nazis. If you use it for people who are prejudiced against people of another race, it dilutes the special quality of the Third Reich.

Really?
Why are we discussing nazis in the covid-19 thread?

Because Archimid is calling Alexander555 a Nazi, and I rather doubt Alexander555 belongs to the National Socialist Party, much less between 1933 and 1945.

[wili]

I would be very interested in any proof that anyone who did any looting anywhere were actual, prominent activists openly associating themselves with 'antifa' or blm (though the latter, being a much broader group, would be less surprising to find, perhaps).

Either supply proof of such inflammatory claims, or please stop filling these threads with unfounded hate mongering claims...there's already enough of that in the world.

Thank you

[harpy]

<Off Topic. kassy>

[Archimid]

<Off Topic. kassy>

[Neven]

I take it as a good sign that this thread is going off-topic, but nevertheless I would like to ask all of you to take these discussions elsewhere, preferably outside of the ASIF.

[kassy]

Why are we discussing nazis in the covid-19 thread?

Indeed. At some point you (as in anybody posting) can recognize when stuff goes to far off topic.
So then don´t post it.

Some posters have found a sudden interest in the BLM protests as a vector and as we know from data they were not important so that does not need to be discussed in this thread any further.

[Archimid]

Done.

Edit: I think Neven's racism moderation is suspect, but it allows free flow of information and has led to an atmosphere that is charged but honest. Over the year it has paid off. We need to hear from people like Alexander555 or BBR, or frankly sometimes (often) me, that may say harsh stuff. Else we condemned the ASIF to yet another echo chamber. But too much is bad. This is definitely too much.

I'm sure that if we don't behave things will get more serious.

[Gerntocratis#1]

<Off Topic. kassy>

[vox_mundi]

<Off Topic. kassy>

[harpy]

<Off Topic. kassy>

[Shared Humanity]

<Off Topic. kassy>

[nanning]

<Off Topic. kassy>

[Tom_Mazanec]

<Off Topic. kassy>

[kassy]

Coronavirus: Living with children 'no increased risk'

Living with children is not linked to a greater risk of severe coronavirus in adults, a study has found.

It looked at data on nine million adults under 65 between February and August, comparing the risks to those living with and without children.

Sharing a house with under-18s did not increase the risk of getting seriously ill or dying from Covid.

...

The researchers, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and the University of Oxford, found adults living with very young or primary-school-age children had no increased risk of Covid-19 infection or a related hospital admission.

In fact, they were about 25% less likely to die of Covid-19 than people living without children, which the researchers think may be linked to healthier living habits previously identified in those who care for children.

People living with secondary-school-age children had a very small (8%) increased risk of a Covid-19 infection, but no increased risk of hospitalisation..

They were 27% less likely to die from the disease, again perhaps because they tend to be healthier than adults of the same age without children.

The study, which has not yet been published in a journal, looked at what happened between February and August and so straddled the period when schools were fully open as well as the time after 20 March when they were closed to all but a few children.

...

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54794904

It strikes me that the two groups of parents should also be different age demographics which is important for deaths.

[Archimid]

The study, which has not yet been published in a journal, looked at what happened between February and August and so straddled the period when schools were fully open as well as the time after 20 March when they were closed to all but a few children.

Wait. If the study is from February to August, and schools closed on March 20 and opened in September, the schooling is almost completely being left out of the study period. Only the school-age is being measured here.  Yet is being represented as if the study is representative of children of the school year going to school.


My expectation is that children will transmit C19 according to the severity of their symptoms. Since they are usually very mild, the transmission from children shouldn't be extreme. Also, children are short. Their droplets are closer to the ground and will have to be lifted by the wind to infect taller people.


But I don't believe the claims this article makes about schoolchildren can possibly be sustained in the time period the study uses.

[gerontocrat]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

UK & Italy data
No comment

[Shared Humanity]

Denmark to cull up to 17 million mink amid coronavirus fears

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54818615

"As many as 17 million minks are to be culled in Denmark after a mutated version of the coronavirus that can spread to humans was detected on mink farms."

[Rodius]

Melbourne has gone six days straight with zero cases..... still lots of testing going on.

Australia is now like New Zealand.
Now we can sort of go back to normalish while we wait for another round of Covid.

[KiwiGriff]

Interesting data point from one of the most successful society's at combating covid.

Our lockdowns, border closures, stricter hygiene and social distancing are also credited with a big drop in winter bugs.

The number of Kiwis with the flu fell by 99 per cent.

“The measures we've used to control Covid-19 are also very effective at stopping other serious respiratory infections,” epidemiologist Michael Baker told 1 NEWS.

A look at the weekly data shows fewer people have died this winter.

In June and July, it dropped by as much as 13 per cent on last year.

“Our death rate should be around five per cent less this year, so that's saving around 1500 lives of people who haven't died this year who normally would have,” Baker said.

New Zealand’s elderly have benefitted the most, the group being most susceptible to dying from the flu.

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/covid-19-causes-mortality-rates-spike-around-globe-nz-sees-dramatic-drop-in-deaths

[El Cid]

The September--October state of affairs (schools, workplaces open, maskwearing, some self-restriction, some ban on mass events) led to an R of 1,2-1,5 in the NH quite uniformly. Since this state of affairs is quite sustaniable ("somewhat liveable"), this means that when cca 30% of the population is infected, partial herdimmunity (given the above set of circumstances) will have been achieved. As the elderly mostly lock themselves up, real mortality is likely to be less than 1%, I'd say cca 0,5% during this wave. So, once 0,15% of a country's population dies, partial herd immunity is achieved. I think this will happen in most of Europe and the US by the end of January. After that vaccination and spring weather will solve the rest. This is not the optimal soultion to the problem but this is what is going to happen.

2021 summer will once again see tourists flocking all over the world.