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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 385991 times)

Tom_Mazanec

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COVID-19
« on: January 25, 2020, 12:46:46 PM »
Per TerryM's suggestion, here is a dedicated thread on the epidemic.
Let's hope this thread fizzles in a month or two.
Till then, here is the blog TerryM mentioned:
https://www.theguardian.com/science/live/2020/jan/25/coronavirus-china-death-tolls-rises-to-41-as-france-confirms-three-cases
« Last Edit: February 24, 2020, 04:40:40 PM by Neven »
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blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1 on: January 25, 2020, 01:36:22 PM »
Still thinking this whole thing is more fearmongering than a serious problem.

Apparently this virus doesn't have a very high mortality rate. It's mostly older folks dying, indicating you need to be ill for it to become life-threatening. Also, it seems to be that the Chinese government is doing a good job containing the virus. I think they learned from their SARS disaster.

I hope i'm right on that...

El Cid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #2 on: January 25, 2020, 01:51:17 PM »
- Mortality seems to be 5%, I wouldn't call it low

- Containment is so successful that it is already present in Europe and USA

I hope it fizzles out...for the next couple of decades epidemics like this are more dangerous than AGW...If anything like the Spanish flu comes up, it could mean 0,5-1 billion dead

The Walrus

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #3 on: January 25, 2020, 02:22:02 PM »
- Mortality seems to be 5%, I wouldn't call it low

- Containment is so successful that it is already present in Europe and USA

I hope it fizzles out...for the next couple of decades epidemics like this are more dangerous than AGW...If anything like the Spanish flu comes up, it could mean 0,5-1 billion dead

That mortality rate is based on known hospitalized cases, most of whom were part of a more susceptible  population (elderly, sick, etc.).  The mortality rate among the general population coming in contact with the disease is suspected to be half that - still something to take note of.  However, it is still early, and new information is coming into light daily.  Currently, I would agree with blumenkraft, that it is more fearmongering that a serious problem. 

pietkuip

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #4 on: January 25, 2020, 02:54:46 PM »
Judging by footage from a hospital in Wuhan, it is a serious problem over there.

An epidemic would also overwhelm healthcare here in Sweden. Which patients would be given the few available respirator beds when there are too many very sick people?

blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #5 on: January 25, 2020, 02:56:43 PM »
I would agree with blumenkraft, that it is more fearmongering that a serious problem. 

Nice, Walrus, we agree! I like it. ;)

Let me just add, i deliberately didn't say 'low', El Cid! !!

nanning

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #6 on: January 25, 2020, 03:23:09 PM »
Thanks pietkuip.

blumenkraft and The Walrus, re: Fearmongering, do you think this is a conspiracy/policy to make people afraid?

https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/fearmonger#English
Noun
fearmonger (plural fearmongers)
    Someone who spreads fear, or needlessly raises the alarm.
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #7 on: January 25, 2020, 05:17:15 PM »
Even if this is only as bad as Hong Kong Flu or Asian Flu will it affect the somewhat precarious global economy?
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Avalonian

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #8 on: January 25, 2020, 05:34:20 PM »
I've been following this closely, since I'm meant to be heading out there in a few weeks' time for my annual research visit..!  :o

Basically, it appears to be far, far worse than it appears. The level of quarantine imposition, combined with numerous reports from the hospitals in Wuhan and elsewhere, familiarity with the culture and how it works normall, plus some first-hand information from friends in Jiangsu Province imply:

1. The mortality rate is substantially understated, as most of the ones 'not dead' are still ill, and we're in the rapidly expanding infection stage. We don't know the actual figure, but I've seen many suggestions that it's probably somewhere between 15 and 30%, with treatment.
2. It is incredibly effective at spreading, mimicing a normal 'flu for the first week or more, and in some cases being asymptomatic but still contagious. The first papers out suggest an ro of 3.8ish, which is extremely high... but some medical staff in China have been claiming it is much higher still (estimated 14).
3. It's really not contained. We won't know whether it's spreading outside China for another week or ten days, when the next generation of infected people start to show symptoms.

Basically, we don't know the answers yet, but do not believe the stated figures. Keep a very close eye on this one. I really hope I'm wrong, but I fear I'm not - this is starting to look truly horrible.

blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #9 on: January 25, 2020, 05:42:33 PM »
blumenkraft and The Walrus, re: Fearmongering, do you think this is a conspiracy/policy to make people afraid?

I mean, politicians and media are fearmongering all the time. It's like their main function. It's not necessarily a conspiracy but just how the world works. If they conspire or not, the powerful exploit this fact.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divide_and_rule

nanning

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #10 on: January 25, 2020, 05:44:20 PM »
Avalonian, thanks for the information.

Question: Are you going to travel by aeroplane?
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

TerryM

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #11 on: January 25, 2020, 06:21:24 PM »

Thanks for the thread!

I've a dear friend whose parents are in Jinan, ~450 miles from the epicenter. I'll be talking to her tonight.
I'm not ready to pack up provisions and head into the bush to wait this thing out, but I am fearful for what this could become.
China is working as well as only the Chinese can, but no one has ever attempted quarantines at anything like this scale.


I've a dinner tonight and expect 20 or 25 to attend. If anyone has the sniffles I'll cut out early without shaking hands.
Stay Healthy
Terry

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #12 on: January 25, 2020, 06:26:11 PM »
So if we cannot trust the statistics we don’t know how fast the cases are doubling?
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kassy

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #13 on: January 25, 2020, 06:52:16 PM »
2. It is incredibly effective at spreading, mimicing a normal 'flu for the first week or more, and in some cases being asymptomatic but still contagious.

This does make it a lot harder to contain.

The statistics for these things are always a problem since we don´t know how many cases are asymptomatic and we also don´t know how reliable the numbers are.

Interesting things to look out for:
Does China lock down more cities?

What happens to the cases in EU or US? Is there human to human infection there?

They should also do contact tracing of the passengers on the flights....

And then the total official numbers.
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Avalonian

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #14 on: January 25, 2020, 07:10:40 PM »
Looks like we won't be going at all, Nanning... the developments are so rapid that it's hard to keep up, but I seriously doubt we'll even be able to get travel insurance at the moment! Rumours suggest Shanghai and Beijing will be isolated next week, and if Xi is admitting the rapid accelaration, it means they're preparing to release larger numbers in their statistics.

     That said... the statistics cover formally tested patients/victims, and most of the bodies are apparently being cremated as soon as possible.  I've seen videos with bodies lying next to patients in packed hospital corridors, sometimes with a doctor or two lying alongside. From the sound of it, there are no numbers available, and nobody is bothering to test for confirmation - at least in Wuhan, the hospitals appear to be in chaos.

Terry, do contact your friend in Jinan, and I hope for the best for them. I have many friends in Nanjing, and they're geting very worried, as you would expect.

Things to look for in relation to a worst case scenario: more official statements of how serious it is, combined with stated numbers of infected/dead increasing abruptly (means China doesn't think they'll be able to keep it under wraps); full lockdown of most Chinese cities; appearance of the virus in other countries in non-Chinese patients (probably within a week); and closing of international borders. As I say, I really hope I'm wrong.   :-\

gerontocrat

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #15 on: January 25, 2020, 07:15:43 PM »
Even if this is only as bad as Hong Kong Flu or Asian Flu will it affect the somewhat precarious global economy?
Already affected the price of crude, share price of airlines, major hotel chains, tourism operators.
Chinese economy will be hit as is happening at Lunar New Year, when people go home to their parents. Hundreds of millions of people should be on the move, restaurants hotels and leisure facilities at their busiest.

If the outbreak is contained the effect will be temporary. If it spreads (internationally as well as in China) and is long-lasting then all bets are off.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
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be cause

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #16 on: January 25, 2020, 07:15:56 PM »
we cannot trust the early info from local officials who were obviously downplaying things . Even if this has changed it is likely that we are still playing a gradual catch-up to the truth , or exactly the opposite .. an ever growing cover-up .
  This is far more contageous than SARS . I anticipate a minimum of 25 million dead worldwide and a collapse of health services . If I was in govt anywhere i would be urging retired doctors and nurses out of retirement and preparing for disaster . Even if my fears are overblown it would be a valuable exercise as the mess that is China's wildlife markets and meat production makes future epidemics a near certainty .
  World economy may well shrink unless it really is killing only the old and ill but this seems doubtful . If survival is dependent on intensive care then .. oops . b.c.
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The Walrus

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #17 on: January 25, 2020, 07:35:47 PM »
blumenkraft and The Walrus, re: Fearmongering, do you think this is a conspiracy/policy to make people afraid?

I mean, politicians and media are fearmongering all the time. It's like their main function. It's not necessarily a conspiracy but just how the world works. If they conspire or not, the powerful exploit this fact.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Divide_and_rule

Yes.  It is a case of bad news sells.  No conspiracy

dnem

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #18 on: January 25, 2020, 07:40:59 PM »
Even if this is only as bad as Hong Kong Flu or Asian Flu will it affect the somewhat precarious global economy?

Certainly might:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/23/world/asia/wuhan-coronavirus-china-economy.html

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #19 on: January 25, 2020, 07:43:53 PM »
Now We Are Being Told That The Incubation Period For The Coronavirus “Can Be Around Two Weeks”
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/now-we-are-being-told-that-the-incubation-period-for-the-coronavirus-can-be-around-two-weeks
Quote
The more we learn about this mysterious new coronavirus, the more frightening this outbreak becomes.  As you will see below, we are now being told that the incubation period for this virus “can be around two weeks”.  That means that there could be countless numbers of people all over the globe that are carrying this virus around without even knowing it.  In fact, a woman that returned to Chicago from China on January 13th was not exhibiting any symptoms when she arrived.  So even if she had been “screened” at the airport, they would have let her through anyway.  But now it has been confirmed that she has the Chinese coronavirus, and she is in the hospital at this moment…
Yeah, this guy likes to cry "Wolf!"
But remember, in the end the wolf did come.
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GoodeWeather

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #20 on: January 25, 2020, 07:47:11 PM »
Did a little digging into coronaviruses on the internet, and came across the article tracing SARS to bats.   The article is 3 years old and very prevalent to what is happening right now.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-017-07766-9

harpy

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #21 on: January 25, 2020, 08:27:22 PM »
This individual claims the R0 of this virus is....  14.0

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=4&v=TQnMM-YNJw8&feature=emb_logo


Translation:  I ’m still in the epidemic area of ​​Hankou, Wuhan, and I ’d like to report to you the current epidemic situation in Hubei and even the whole country.

There are now more than 90,000 person-times (Note: Infected person-times?)

What is the chance of this virus being transmitted? After a person is infected, if he is not effectively isolated,

Or if effective treatment is performed, he will infect 14 people around him, so this level is very large.

Now it ’s the time of the Chinese New Year family and friends, relatives, children, and children are all going to the house to reunite the family together for a reunion dinner

The situation is special now. I hope you do n’t go out.

Every year in the Spring Festival, as long as people are safe, everyone can be together anytime, anywhere

Let me introduce you to the situation of medical supplies in Hubei Province

At present, the entire medical system in Wuhan, which integrates the entire medical system in Hubei Province, has passed through our superiors. The health and health committee (Note: these three words are uncertain)

And various administrative departments
 

The municipal government and the provincial government are initiating donations to the society through major media. This material is medical material. For example, the goggles I wear

Wear disposable masks, wear disposable gloves, wear this gown, or even isolation pants.

This material is extremely accurate. Our current medical staff must come back to the front line when they come down from the clinic.

I am now equivalent to recording this video with everyone on the FireWire, in order to make everyone accurate.

I stress again that during the Spring Festival holiday, do n’t go out and stay in your own house, otherwise I ’m desperately ahead

Not just to keep my dad, my loved ones, healthy

I hope everyone can understand, I also know that some relatives are not in the group, please see the news of me, call each other and inform

It must be done. I hope everyone can raise awareness. This is a political task.

And I ’m reporting very bad news. This new type of coronavirus has undergone the second generation mutation

In other words, in the first generation of mutation, we can treat it symptomatically.

Then when the second-generation mutation occurs, this is terrible, and its chance of infection is not one person to one person, one person has the disease and infects 14 people around him.

Then it is pour burst (note: these five characters are uncertain)

I hope everyone remembers, do n’t go out, do n’t go out, do n’t meet, do n’t have dinner

thank you all

kassy

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #22 on: January 25, 2020, 09:53:24 PM »
Then when the second-generation mutation occurs, this is terrible, and its chance of infection is not one person to one person, one person has the disease and infects 14 people around him.


This is probably some misinterpretation.
Person to person spread already indicates airbourne transfer. There is no reason why that would stop at one except travelling with one person during the incubation.

So this observation is probably a miss interpretation of the amount of cases coming in which is a function of the spread pattern and time.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #23 on: January 25, 2020, 10:59:47 PM »
From zerohedge:

This Is How China Is Hiding The True Number Of Coronavirus Deaths
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/how-china-hiding-true-number-coronavirus-deaths
Quote
The problem is that even as China theatrically pretends to be so forthright about the extent of the epidemic - if only to avoid panic and chaos over allegations it is again hiding the full impact of the disease - it is doing precisely that, and now we know just how it is doing that: instead of putting down coronavirus as the cause of death for an unknown number of Wuhan casualties, China's coroners and hospitals merely ascribe death to "viral pneumonia", case closed.

UK Researcher Predicts Over 250,000 Chinese Will Have Coronavirus In Ten Days
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-researcher-predicts-over-250000-people-china-will-have-coronavirus-ten-days
Quote
Needless to say, while 2.5 is quite high, and in line with that of the Spanish flu epidemic  which infected about half a billion people back in 1918, killing as many as 100 million before it eventually fizzled out, the real coronavirus R0 number may end up being far higher. That is the working hypothesis of Jonathan Read, a UK expert on the transmission and evolutionary dynamics of infectious diseases, who has published a paper with four colleagues that estimates transmission parameters for the Wuhan coronavirus, calculates that the R0 of 2019-nCoV to be between 3.6-4.0 or roughly the same as SARS, and reaches a conclusion about spread of the coronavirus epidemic that is frankly terrifying.

In "Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions", Read et al, write that with an R0 of between 3.6 and 4.0, roughly 72-75% of transmissions "must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing."

This is a major problem because Read estimates that only 5.1% of infections in Wuhan are identified (as of Jan 24), "indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease." Furthermore, since all of this is happening in China which is not known for making the most socially-beneficial decisions under pressure, there is an ominous possibility that Read is actually overly optimistic.
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SteveMDFP

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #24 on: January 25, 2020, 11:24:33 PM »
I wouldn't pay much attention to zerohedge as a source.  Conspiracy theories galore there.

That doesn't mean the coronavirus infection isn't gravely serious, however.

I've long had an interest in influenza, SARS, and pandemics in general.  I'll share a few impressions.

In terms of contagiousness and overall mortality, this seems quite similar to the 1918 influenza pandemic ("Spanish flu," though that is a misnomer.)  A number of books and documentaries would be worth perusing.

That epidemic preferentially struck young adults, which is very unusual for respiratory viruses.  This coronavirus seems more typically to target the elderly and those with chronic health problems.

The SARS virus was probably more lethal, but far less contagious.

Modern advances in infectious disease have done essentially nothing to inhibit the spread of respiratory viruses.  Every winter, a substantial fraction of the word's population gets influenza (and that's despite vaccines and antiviral medications, neither of which are available for this virus).  I can't see any reason to believe this virus won't spread worldwide, very quickly.

I would guess that most of the world's population will be exposed/infected within a year.  The worst suffering will be those who become critically ill when health systems are overwhelmed.  Becoming a hermit for a time may be the best preventive approach.  I personally doubt that face masks are terribly useful.  Hand sanitizers may be more effective.  Shaking hands in greeting should be ceased.  The hand sanitizers are usually just gelled ethanol.   In a pinch, vodka makes an excellent substitute.  For acute emotional distress, oral administration may be useful.

harpy

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #25 on: January 26, 2020, 12:28:11 AM »
Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and
epidemic predictions

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fz7EwlAJjrZs708YGPym1Xj_3PmysukL/view

Key Findings

Key findings
We estimate the basic reproductive number of the infection (RR0) to be significantly
greater than one. We estimate it to be between 3.6 and 4.0, indicating that 72-75% of
transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop
increasing.


● We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8–5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified,
indicating a large number of infections in the community, and also reflecting the
difficulty in detecting cases of this new disease. Surveillance for this novel pathogen
has been launched very quickly by public health authorities in China, allowing for
rapid assessment of the speed of increase of cases in Wuhan and other areas.

● If no change in control or transmission happens, then we expect further outbreaks to
occur in other Chinese cities, and that infections will continue to be exported to
international destinations at an increasing rate. In 14 days’ time (4 February 2020),
our model predicts the number of infected people in Wuhan to be greater than 250
thousand (prediction interval, 164,602 to 351,396). We predict the cities with the
largest outbreaks elsewhere in China to be Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou,
Chongqing and Chengdu. We also predict that by 4 Feb 2020, the countries or
special administrative regions at greatest risk of importing infections through air travel
are Thailand, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and South Korea.

● Our model suggests that travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be
effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in
travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on
4 February.

● There are important caveats to the reliability of our model predictions, based on the
assumptions underpinning the model as well as the data used to fit the model. These
should be considered when interpreting our findings.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #26 on: January 26, 2020, 12:49:17 AM »
How Contagious Is The Coronavirus?
https://www.peakprosperity.com/how-contagious-is-the-coronavirus/
Quote
Okay, with that as context, let’s parse through this.  To begin, I completely disagree with the notion that making elevated claims during a pandemic is “unhelpful.”

Why? Because what’s helpful during a pandemic?  I would suggest an overabundance of caution and swift reaction by authorities and the general public.

I already think that letting people travel while simply scanning them upon arrival for a fever is criminally negligent.  I would vastly prefer a much more reactionary response.

People like Jabr fit comfortably within the Overton Window where it’s always polite to downplay risks and act as if the State has things firmly under control.  You get invited to a lot more parties if this is your stance.

So, I take the opposite view of Jabr on this.  I think overreacting is appropriate when the facts are still fluid and nobody knows truly what’s going on.  I happen to think it is Jabr’s stance that is unhelpful and probably harmful.  If “panicking” means reacting swiftly on incomplete data, then by all means ‘panic’ when a pandemic comes along.  That’s just my view.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #27 on: January 26, 2020, 01:12:13 AM »
The Role of Wild Animals in the Wuhan Coronavirus Outbreak
https://time.com/5770904/wuhan-coronavirus-wild-animals/

We are seeing cases of pneumonia without fever or cough, which makes the control of this outbreak more difficult.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

be cause

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #28 on: January 26, 2020, 01:35:37 AM »
In a vegan world ..

 unconnected to that ^^ thought .. it would have been hard to design , locate and time a more perfect launch for a virus attack on modern humanity . Considering the truely perilous situation in which the world economy exists very little more need happen before we see things unravelling .
 
Has the 2 legged locust just been 'sprayed' by nature 'raw in tooth and claw'  ?  ..  b.c.

 
« Last Edit: January 26, 2020, 03:38:11 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

El Cid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #29 on: January 26, 2020, 08:02:36 AM »
.. it would have been hard to design , locate and time a more perfect launch for a virus attack on modern humanity . Considering the truely perilous situation in which the world economy exists very little more need happen before we see things unravelling .
 

The world economy is really in a terrible shape: unemployment has not been this low in the developed world since the 70s (!!!) We have not had so many people having a job for even longer (because of record high female work-participation)...

On another thought (the vegan line): Most serious infectious disease comes from association with animals. Maybe humanity should reconsider its diet and habits....

philopek

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #30 on: January 26, 2020, 09:21:38 AM »
when you find your kids and/or grandkids yelling for help in the pool just to find out that they're pulling your leg, what would most of you say tell them (hey dad, here grand-dad)

one day there will be a real pandemie with tens of millions invected and death and then we can tell that most were not taking proper action in time after so many hyped false alarms.

look at the data below, put the numbers into relation with population, travel habits and numbers and speed of spreading over several days and then inform yourself about what is already known scientifically about this virus and i think we should delete this thread and not further add to the fearmongering hype.

BTW i wated 14 hours before writing this to :

a) check whether anything would change

b) to find the better than initial tone ;)

as to the economy, those who are responsible always need a reasonable trigger to blame to get away with their fraudulent scam to plunder billions of people. i talk about accumulated wealth and their political puppets. hence each similar event can indeed be used to trigger the next financial and economical crisis, probably starting with a stock-crash that is certainly in the making, looking at some obvious bubbles ( high stock prices without obvious reasons  and more )

so yes, pandemic events are very likely among the possible next large scale reduction in world population and can indeed be used as trigger events for economical collapse but:

THIS IS NOT IT



Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #31 on: January 26, 2020, 09:49:36 AM »
philopek:
This may or may not be it. I was afraid Ebola would be it a few years ago and I was wrong. So I may be worrying about nothing again. But you admit it is likely to happen someday, and in the early stages it will not look like much, just as AGW did not look like much when it was discovered over a century ago (actually considered beneficial).
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wili

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #32 on: January 26, 2020, 10:24:27 AM »
CNN just reported a third case in the US in Orange County, CA

Quote
The following places outside mainland China have confirmed cases:

    Hong Kong: 5 cases
    Macao: 5 cases
    Thailand: 5 cases
    Australia: 4 cases
    Malaysia: 4 cases
    Singapore: 4 cases
    France: 3 cases
    Japan: 3 cases
    South Korea: 3 cases
    Taiwan: 3 cases
    United States: 2 cases [now 3]
    Vietnam: 2 cases
    Nepal: 1 case
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #33 on: January 26, 2020, 10:46:25 AM »
Philopek,

You could not be much more wrong. The world today is a highly interconnected place with rapid movement of people everywhere. Any rapidly transmitting virus or even many other pathogens have the potential to spiral wildly out of control in no time flat. You assert flatly that this is not a pandemic to be concerned about.

Consider... the parameters we now know.

1) the R0 was first estimated at ~1.5 - 2.4. That is now more likely about 4. Our history with corona viruses (SARS in particular) track with the data so far. If this virus plays out like SARS the R0 will rise to the 5 - 7 range. That isn’t a change in the virus. That is a change in both data availability and population conditions. Viruses with R0s this large are extremely infective.

2) the mean observed incubation time is 6.4 days with the patients likely being asymptomatic and infective for at least one of those.

3) Lancet researchers estimate (rightly or wrongly) that the official counts most likely represent a bit over 5% of total actual infections. This is not at all surprising with a 6.4 day average incubation period.

4) those most severely affected are over about 55 years in age. With two thirds of those admitted to hospital being male.

5) of those admitted who have either died or recovered, the number dying slightly exceeds the number surviving. Since it takes a few days longer to survive and be discharged than to die, the temporal base for these indices is not correlated. A more reasonable estimate is 30-40% of those being fatal. About 4% require intubation and ventilation. About 5% suffer cardiac injury. These all require massive health services, with enormous amounts of protective gear. Even at current levels the hospital staffs are being exhausted and overwhelmed. Exhausted people make errors. So far two of the doctors that have become infected have died. More will. These are front line warriors in a war zone.

Based on the full population, the case fatality rate is no less than ~0.75%, and likely no more than 40%. It appears likely that the CFR is in the 4 - 20% range. SARS CFR was ~10%. This is a close relative. And that is a likely average For 2019-nCoV as well. We won’t know the true average value for a while yet, and until better data is available that traces groups of people what the actual values are. 

6) SARS is a bio safety level 3 (BSL3) vector. 2019-nCoV appears to be a BSL3 or 4 virus - i.e. extremely dangerous.

7) lunar new year celebrations in China constitute the largest mass migration of people on earth. This event happened right on top of those celebrations. This facilitated the widespread movement of infected persons during the incubation period. As a consequence tens of millions of Chinese are now in quarantine. The virus is present in every province. And the count of infected persons is growing at a rate approximating a growth of 1.32 - 1.41 fold every day.

At this growth rate, if quarantine, education and other actions are not able to contain the spread, every person on earth will have been exposed and likely infected by the later half of April.

At the moment, there are few known infected persons outside of China. Few enough that containment might occur. That is slight comfort to the 1.437 billion citizens of China. Despite enormous and unprecedented efforts in China, the disease shows every sign of being out of control and pandemic.

Best estimates place the count of infected today at 5,000 - 10,000, though the actual count may be vastly higher.

If this is indeed pandemic inside China, and if the CFR is ~10% matching SARS, that projects to 144 million Chinese (predominantly older and male) ultimately dying. The impact on China and the world will be enormous if that comes to pass - which is why I think that the Chinese are mobilizing the most massive response to a disease outbreak that has ever occurred. It is doubtful frankly that any other country could do this.

With a likely R0 of 4, and an average generation time of 6.4 days, and a current infected pool of 6,000 people, without quarantine succeeding, this plays out as follows.

Feb 1 - 24,000 infected
Feb 7 - 96,000
Feb 14 - 384,000
Feb 20 - 1.45 million
Feb 27 - 5.8 million
Mar 6 - 23 million
Mar 12 - 92 million
Mar 19 - 370 million
Mar 25 - the entire population of China.

Admission to hospital for those that ill occurs shortly after symptoms. Intensive care follows about 3 days later. For those who survive the mean time to recovery is now about 23.5 days. So by mid-April this first wave will have finished in China.

The only opportunity to stop this from playing out is to aggressively stop it now. Choosing to stick ones head in the sand because the absolute numbers are small now, assures that a catastrophic pandemic happens.

And even if the disease is contained in China, in the quarantined zones, in certain districts... the impacts are likely to be large. And what happens to and in China in a globally connected world is not limited to China. Even the impacts on production of goods in a highly connected just-in-time world are massive to the global economy and hence to everyone on earth.

These are not worst case numbers. These are most likely numbers, based on the most recent data, if containment and control fail.

8 ) more over, this virus has an animal host. If that host is as has been suggested either bats or snakes, propogation and reinfection in the wild is a small risk. If on the other hand this virus can and does infect birds, especially ducks - then all bets are off on containment.

We already know from flu, which cycles through humans, birds and pigs primarily, that transmission from bird droppings under the flyways is a major route of spread. If this virus infects ducks, well - there is no effective control.

In a somewhat more hopeful vein, there are a couple of experimental antivirals that may be effective. These have already been used in emergencies with Ebola and other corona viruses.

Throughout this early period, there are serious difficulties in assembling accurate data. Often that data is not temporally correlated. You can’t for example just take the ratio of deaths so far to known infections as a gauge. This is an exponential problem. You have to instead follow individual cases through from beginning to end to get accurate information. Lacking that, model fits using parameters from related viruses give a decent estimate.

There are also lag periods from infection to symptoms to counting, to resolution to reporting. These seriously distort the apparent seriousness in ways that can easily mislead people into believing that this isn’t a big deal - when it is actually an out of control pandemic.

Successfully intervening and stopping a pandemic is not much better. It is just luckier. As a result, the analogies to kids in a pool is just plain wrong.

At the same time, there is a large body of people who quickly and eagerly ascribe all sorts of motivations that do not exist, and who see conspiracies that don’t exist hiding under every rock and behind every tree. These are not helpful. They are in fact hurtful in several serious ways.

Sam

« Last Edit: January 26, 2020, 11:37:23 AM by Sam »

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #34 on: January 26, 2020, 10:57:14 AM »
I should also note that most of the world does not have the legal ability to do what the Chinese are doing.

Strict enforcement of rights and liberties makes containment vastly harder and vastly more likely to fail. With one to several hundred cases outside China (both confirmed infections and suspected infections), the chance that this pandemic escapes China is very high.

And if that comes to pass, we may reasonably expect over 700 million deaths as a result - before the end of May! We must bend every effort to assure that does not happen.

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #35 on: January 26, 2020, 11:19:28 AM »
  philopek , I suppose Xi declaring the situation 'grave' could be considered the equivalent of a child pretending to drown but I'm not so sure . It would be an unusual path for a leader , hyping up a 'false alarm .
  Indeed .. look at the figures .. It would appear obvious the first few weeks of spread in China was not apparent ( or supressed ) otherwise the numbers would appear on your graph . Do you not expect a similar exponential curve outside China ?
  the accelerating rate of infection is causing the gradual shutdown of the world's mega factory . Just in time delivery may be challenged and transport hubs could find their essential staff missing .
  but no worries .. lets shut this thread down .. along with the scare-mongering threads fearful of climate change ; after all it may never happen .. especially if we are all dead ( :) )
  and yes El Cid .. employment has never been higher but job security has never been lower . The world has never been so in debt .. the same £ or $ has never been on loan to so many at one time ..

and thankfully a ban today on the sale of wild animals .. but there was already one in place . Maybe this outbreak will end some of the ongoing appalling treatment of animals . b.c.

ps .. thank you Sam !

« Last Edit: January 26, 2020, 12:12:18 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Jim Hunt

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #36 on: January 26, 2020, 11:46:13 AM »
look at the data below

Here's a link to the data you refer to:

https://systems.jhu.edu/research/public-health/ncov/

Click the map at the bottom for updates.

Quote
We developed an online dashboard (static snapshot shown below) to visualize and track the reported cases on a daily timescale; the complete set of data is downloadable as a google sheet.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

bluice

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #37 on: January 26, 2020, 12:18:35 PM »
What motivates China to put major cities under quarantine? After all, the published figures of infected people are relatively low. I can think of three scenarios:

1) The situation on the ground in Wuhan is far worse than what the authorities are telling us. A full blown epidemic is imminent with an expected nine figure death toll in China alone.

2) China has calculated that locking down a few cities will be cheaper economically and politically than letting the virus spread.

3) Chinese authorities want to paint a picture of a decisive and efficient administration, always vigilant to protect the people. A decadent West couldn’t pull this off!

My guess is reality is somewhere between 2 and 3. High profile media reports such as new hospitals being built in one week suggest we are closer to 3.

TerryM

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #38 on: January 26, 2020, 12:41:56 PM »
Thanks Sam
Well researched and well written!


We had our 1st suspected case in Toronto last night, so I opted out of a planed dinner engagement. The patient tested positive, but the result hasn't been confirmed yet?


Terry

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #39 on: January 26, 2020, 12:48:40 PM »
During the Ebola epidemic my cousin advised me to skip a Halloween party, but I went anyway.
Still, I was a contributor to a thread analogous to this one on a Peak Oil forum (remember I was a POer before I was an AGWer). I don’t blame you, TerryM.
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philopek

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #40 on: January 26, 2020, 12:51:27 PM »
Risk "very low": The Robert Koch Institute sees little danger from the corona virus for Germany. According to the experts, the risk of importing the disease is "low". The risk to the population is estimated to be "very low".

Low death rate: It is not yet possible to say with certainty how high the death rate of the new pathogen is, says Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit from the Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine. "According to current data, it could be similar to the last wave of influenza in Germany." However, there is a high number of very mild and therefore unrecorded diseases in both infections, and the actual death rate could therefore be much lower. So far, there have been serious illnesses, especially among older people and people with previous illnesses, says Oliver Witzke, Director of the Clinic for Infectious Diseases and the West German Center for Infectious Diseases at the University of Essen, the "Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland" (RND) Germany. The corona virus is not particularly aggressive, the death rate is much lower than that of Sars.

Hardly contagious: According to experts, the novel corona virus is still a hardly contagious pathogen. Most of the cases still affect the metropolis of Wuhan, the virus has not spread very much, said Schmidt-Chanasit. In addition, hardly any hospital staff were infected, and the cases in other countries have not yet been transferred to other people. "In many cases, the virus only passes to another human being, and then the infection runs dead," he explained. Long transmission chains from one to the next, as with Sars, have so far not existed, or at most only sporadically, with the new virus. "There can sometimes be a sick person who infects many others, but the virus is mostly not passed on or passed on to just one other person." According to WHO information, people have only been infected through close contact with infected people, in the family or in practices and health centers. "There is rather no infection from contaminated objects," said Jonas Schmidt-Chanasit from the Bernhard Nocht Institute for Tropical Medicine (BNITM). It is currently suspected that the virus is mainly found in the lower lungs and less pronounced in the upper airways. This would mean less contagion potential, since it is wider from lung to lung than from nose to nose.

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #41 on: January 26, 2020, 01:26:30 PM »
"Hardly contagious:...
In many cases, the virus only passes to another human being, and then the infection runs dead," he explained. Long transmission chains from one to the next, as with Sars, have so far not existed, or at most only sporadically, with the new virus. "There can sometimes be a sick person who infects many others, but the virus is mostly not passed on or passed on to just one other person."

Is this consistent with confirmed cases numbers:

20 Jan 278
21 Jan 326 17% per day increase
22 Jan 547 68% per day increase
23 Jan 639 17% per day increase
24 Jan 916 43% per day increase
26 Jan 1979  116% per 2 days increase

It doesn't sound like it. However, it isn't impossible because there is so much more info needed to put it in proper context. e.g. if the testing had been limited but has been ramped up, the extra confirmed cases may be expected as a result of testing catching up.

However locking down a few cities doesn't sound consistent with this "Hardly contagious" assessment.

Sounds more like a we don't want people panicking yet when there are no cases in Germany so for the moment we will downplay it.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #42 on: January 26, 2020, 02:07:54 PM »
A third case of coronavirus is confirmed in the US as China struggles to contain outbreak
https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/26/us/coronavirus-orange-county/index.html
Quote
At least 56 people have been killed by the coronavirus in China, nearly 2,000 confirmed cases have been reported as the nation struggles to contain the outbreak.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #43 on: January 26, 2020, 02:59:53 PM »
What motivates China to put major cities under quarantine? After all, the published figures of infected people are relatively low. I can think of three scenarios:

1) The situation on the ground in Wuhan is far worse than what the authorities are telling us. A full blown epidemic is imminent with an expected nine figure death toll in China alone.

2) China has calculated that locking down a few cities will be cheaper economically and politically than letting the virus spread.

3) Chinese authorities want to paint a picture of a decisive and efficient administration, always vigilant to protect the people. A decadent West couldn’t pull this off!

My guess is reality is somewhere between 2 and 3. High profile media reports such as new hospitals being built in one week suggest we are closer to 3.

bluice, on that PO forum I mentioned, they have a thread about the coronavirus https://peakoil.com/forums/wuhan-coronavirus-t77487.html . A poster (non de cyber 'Cog") there made an interesting observation. China has an export based economy, they are already suffering from the trade war and prosperity is important to the regime's stability (the last is my own observation). He points out that it is odd that China would do something like this for a virus less dangerous than the flu when it would endanger their economy. He speculates that it may have escaped from a biowar laboratory. Well, I'm not going that far since that is unlikely (not impossible). At least we only have to worry about Mother Nature and Biowar labs. In another decade or two we will have to wonder about teenage biohackers as well.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #44 on: January 26, 2020, 03:24:12 PM »
Woohoo, that's some batshit crazy shit your Cog guy is vomiting there.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #45 on: January 26, 2020, 03:34:22 PM »
The observation about China is not batshit. The speculation about germ warfare may be, but these days you can’t be positive any more (AIDS being engineered is batshit...it existed in 1959 which is much to early for it to be artificial).
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #46 on: January 26, 2020, 03:48:55 PM »
Maybe random posters on a PO forum are not the best sources.

Off course this is an extraordinary measure but it is a logical one faced with a new contagious disease which we do not have vaccines for.

If the cases are still largely clustered in Wuhan and the other quarantained cities this stops spread from people living there travelling to other places in China to visit people for the new year which should slow down the spread.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #47 on: January 26, 2020, 03:52:12 PM »
The observation about China is not batshit.

Or is it?

Let's start with this one: Who is saying they 'suffer' from the tariffs? The US is only one of the many customers China has. It's a pathetic US-centric 'argument'.

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #48 on: January 26, 2020, 03:55:09 PM »
' the apocalypse is already here ; it's just not very evenly distributed ' .. yet
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #49 on: January 26, 2020, 03:55:36 PM »
blumenkraft:
I’ll grant you that. It would be like America canceling Christmas, but America is America and China is China.
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