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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 341401 times)

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #200 on: January 29, 2020, 10:04:39 PM »
There is a graph now being shared that overlays the estimated death rates by age for SARS, MERS and 2019-nCoV.

It suggests a roughly 8% fatality rate for folks aged 20-59, a 38% fatality rate for people aged 60-69, and 85% for those 70 years of age and older.

I would recommend taking all estimates on case fatality rate cautiously. This virus is spreading very rapidly. If we take the most recent paper (previous in this thread) for example... it and the general data point to the problem.


With an R0 of 4.08 and 1 day from admission to confirmation of having the virus, the current confirmed case count rate would suggest a mean 4.35 day generation length, a mean 7.9 day time from confirmed infection to death (if death occurs), and a mean of 6 additional days to confirmed recovery for this who recover. This also suggests a growth rate factor of 1.62 per day. The death total would also then be about 1/45th of the confirmed count rate. And that suggests a 10-12% average case fatality rate when you combine it with the survival counts and delays.

Other R0’s and assumptions would generate equally plausible matches to the data with slight differences in all of these parameters.

Many of the estimates of case fatality rates do not appear to follow whole cohorts from infection to death or recovery. Instead, they often seem to use the current case counts or to track individual case to death or recovery without temporally correlating these.

For SARS and MERS, the pandemic spread was slower. That rendered this time difference problem less important.

These potential problems both suggest taking estimates of a lower overall case fatality rate (~4%) and a much higher elderly death rate (~85%) cautiously and with a good dose of skeptical analysis.

There also may be issues with the implicit assumption that the uncounted population looks similar enough to the admitted and counted population to consider them to be the same and to then use standard statistical measures. This may not be true. Pre-existing health issues may make these populations significantly different. And what that suggests is that we need to be quite careful in making projections, and in how we use the data.

Sam

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #201 on: January 29, 2020, 11:18:42 PM »
What The 1918 Spanish Flu Can Tell Us About The Coronavirus
https://www.peakprosperity.com/what-the-1918-spanish-flu-can-tell-us-about-the-coronavirus/
Quote
An often-overlooked part of the damage a virulent pandemic can do is its impact on supply chains and the economy.

If you’ve got 20 to 30% of your air traffic controllers sick at the same time, what’s that going to do to your economy?

Most of the power plants in the United States are still coal powered. They get their coal, most of them, from Wyoming. You see these enormous trains – that’s a highly skilled position, the engineers who move those trains which are a mile and a half long. Suppose they’re out. You’re not going to have power in many of the power plants.

These are things that we don’t automatically think of as relating to a pandemic. Even a mild one that makes a lot of people sick without killing them will wreak an economic impact.

In terms of the health care system, practically all of the antibiotics are imported. If you interrupt those supply chains then you start getting people dying from diseases that are unrelated to influenza that they would otherwise survive. We had a small example of that with saline solutions bags which were produced in Puerto Rico. Because of the hurricane, Puerto Rico was no longer producing them; so we had tremendous shortages in those bages after the hurricane. Other suppliers worldwide have picked up the slack, so that’s not a problem today.

But in a pandemic, you’re going to have supply chain issues like that simultaneously all over the world. So you’re not going to be able to call on any reserve, anywhere, because everybody’s going to be in the same situation whether you talk about hypodermic needles or plastic gloves — any of that stuff. The supply chain issues in a moderate pandemic are a real problem. If you’ve got a severe pandemic, the hospitals can’t cope. There are many fewer hospital beds per capita than there used to be because everything has gotten more efficient. In this past year’s bad influenza season, many, many hospitals around the country were so overwhelmed they all but closed their emergency rooms and weren’t talking any more patients for any reason.

There’s just no slack in the system. What efficiency does is eliminate as much as possible what’s considered waste, but that waste is slack. And when you have a surge in something, you need that slack to take care of the surge. If I were grading generously I would give us a D in terms of overall preparedness. If we had a universal influenza vaccine, maybe we’d be relatively okay, but we don’t.
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Grubbegrabben

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #202 on: January 30, 2020, 12:06:18 AM »
What The 1918 Spanish Flu Can Tell Us About The Coronavirus
https://www.peakprosperity.com/what-the-1918-spanish-flu-can-tell-us-about-the-coronavirus/
Quote
.... in a pandemic, you’re going to have supply chain issues like that simultaneously all over the world. So you’re not going to be able to call on any reserve, anywhere, because everybody’s going to be in the same situation whether you talk about hypodermic needles or plastic gloves — any of that stuff. The supply chain issues in a moderate pandemic are a real problem. If you’ve got a severe pandemic, the hospitals can’t cope. There are many fewer hospital beds per capita than there used to be because everything has gotten more efficient. In this past year’s bad influenza season, many, many hospitals around the country were so overwhelmed they all but closed their emergency rooms and weren’t talking any more patients for any reason.

There’s just no slack in the system. What efficiency does is eliminate as much as possible what’s considered waste, but that waste is slack. And when you have a surge in something, you need that slack to take care of the surge. If I were grading generously I would give us a D in terms of overall preparedness. If we had a universal influenza vaccine, maybe we’d be relatively okay, but we don’t.

From the front page of WHO situation report #9 on the Novel Coronavirus(2019-nCoV):

Quote
Today, PSCN is launching the first of several teleconference calls with over 30 private sector organizations and 10 multilateral organizations to develop a market capacity and risk assessment for personal protective equipment (PPE). This assessment will be used as the basis to match the global demand for PPE with the global supply. The market and risk assessment for PPE is expected to be completed by 5 February 2020.

I guess they (WHO) are aware that securing a supply chain for these kind of items is quite important.


vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #203 on: January 30, 2020, 12:16:38 AM »
China coronavirus: confirmed mainland cases rise to 7,158, with deaths now at 170
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048150/china-coronavirus-confirmed-mainland-cases-rise-7158-deaths-now

The number of known coronavirus cases jumped to 7,158 in China on Wednesday, according to health authorities, raising the global total of 7,251 – and nearing the total infections worldwide in the Sars outbreak of 2002-03.

Health authorities said that in addition to those cases already confirmed, there were still more than 9,000 suspected cases nationwide.

According to state media, the group recommended that after the Lunar New Year holiday, which ends on Sunday, local government agencies should let employees from cities with a high number of confirmed cases work from home rather than require them to come into the office.

Also on Wednesday, state media quoted scientists on a new coronavirus research team from the Chinese Academy of Sciences as saying they had invented a test for antibody responses in infected patients, and also identified existing medications that are effective in containing the virus.

The three drugs – Remdesivir, GS-5734, Chloroquine, Sigma-C6628 and Ritonavir – are all “under process of authorisation for the use on patients”, according to the local newspaper Hubei Daily.

The group also said that measures should be taken to push manufacturers of medical supplies in short supply, such as face masks and goggles, to resume production as quickly as possible.

-------------------

The total number of deaths is confirmed to be 170. This is up from 132 reported on Wednesday, and is a rise of of 29%.

Confirmed cases now stand at 7,183, up from 5,974 – a rise of 20%. 


---------------------------

Update: China Coronavirus: Confirmed Mainland Cases RIse to 7,686, With Deaths Now at 170
https://www.scmp.com/topics/china-coronavirus-outbreak

The number of known coronavirus cases jumped to 7,686 in China on Thursday morning including the first confirmed case in Tibet, according to health authorities, raising the global total to at least 7,787 ...
« Last Edit: January 30, 2020, 01:38:14 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sark

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #204 on: January 30, 2020, 01:14:40 AM »
The only true barometer of this outbreak is the character and # of international cases, which is being tabulated by a Reddit user Maysign https://www.reddit.com/user/Maysign

I am not a scientist

KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #205 on: January 30, 2020, 01:23:04 AM »
Thank You sark much needed.
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #206 on: January 30, 2020, 02:13:57 AM »
Quote
The three drugs – Remdesivir, GS-5734, Chloroquine, Sigma-C6628 and Ritonavir – are all “under process of authorisation for the use on patients”, according to the local newspaper Hubei Daily.

1 Remdesivir
2 GS-5734
3 Chloroquine
3 again Sigma-C6628
3 yet again Ritonavir
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vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #207 on: January 30, 2020, 02:24:40 AM »
Three Japanese nationals who returned home from Wuhan have tested positive for the coronavirus, Japan’s public broadcaster NHK said on Thursday, citing the health ministry. Two of the three had not shown any symptoms, the ministry said, according to NHK.

A Japanese government-chartered plane took 206 people to Tokyo on Wednesday.

The three infected people were among 206 Japanese who were repatriated on a government-chartered plane on Wednesday.

------------------

Australia Records 8th Case of Virus

Australian authorities are reporting a new case of the virus in the state of Queensland. The man flew into Melbourne, spent some time there and then flew to QLD on January 27, where he became unwell. He has been confirmed to have coronavirus and is in isolation in Gold Coast University hospital in a stable condition. The other eight people who were travelling with him are also in isolation in the same hospital. Four of them are unwell and are being tested for coronavirus.

Queensland health authorities are contacting passengers on the flight the group took. They also confirmed that the Chinese women’s national football team is currently in isolation in a Brisbane hotel.

------------------

News flash to Tom.  Learn Pharm nomenclature or do a Google search.

1 Remdesivir is AKA GS-5734
2 Chloroquine is AKA Sigma-C6628
3 Ritonavir

AKA = also known as (manufacturer/international ID)
« Last Edit: January 30, 2020, 02:45:35 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #208 on: January 30, 2020, 03:28:58 AM »


Situation Report
https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases

European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
ECDC is an EU agency aimed at strengthening Europe's defences against infectious diseases. The core functions cover a wide spectrum of activities: surveillance, epidemic intelligence, response, scientific advice, microbiology, preparedness, public health training, international relations, health communication, and the scientific journal Eurosurveillance.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #209 on: January 30, 2020, 05:06:12 AM »
Update 16:00 Zulu.
7783 cases.
170 deaths.
 https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

This is not contained .
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
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Human Habitat Index

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #210 on: January 30, 2020, 05:17:56 AM »
Hundreds of millions of Chinese are vulnerable to disease because they are breathing in toxic air.

That's why there are so many cases in China.

Wuhan residents have been protesting vigorously to keep their govt to promises to clean the air.

The WHO said the most vulnerable were people with weakened immune systems,

I have tasted the air in China and advised my son to find a cleaner city or return to Australia.

After getting bronchitis he returned home and recovered.
There is a principle which is a bar against all information, which cannot fail to keep a man in everlasting ignorance. That principle is contempt prior to investigation. - Herbert Spencer

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #211 on: January 30, 2020, 06:21:37 AM »
'Severe Shortage' of Medical Supplies in Hubei, Says Governor
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-01-30/Hubei-has-a-severe-shortage-of-medical-supplies-says-governor-NFDtX4DR7i/index.html

Hubei province’s governor, Wang Xiaodong, has said that the whole province has a “severe shortage” of medical supplies, not just Wuhan, according to the broadcaster CGTN. It also reports some medical staff are wearing raincoats and using disposable garbage bags as shoe covers to protect themselves in the city of Huanggang, 75km east of Wuhan.

Wang stressed at the press conference the severity of the coronavirus outbreak in Huanggang City, and vowed to prevent it from becoming the second Wuhan, CGTN reported.



National mask shortage

... Due to the national holiday, current mask production is over eight million each day, comparing to 20 million in normal days, according to Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT). Meanwhile, they are seeking to purchase overseas.

MIIT data shows China is the world's largest producer and exporter of masks, accounting for about 50 percent of the global production.

"Masks also have a shelf life. If it is not in the emergency period, manufacturers and hospitals won't stock in piles. The quota of surgical masks for each of hospital is just enough for medical staff," the head of the supply allocation of MIIT explained.

Besides restoring the domestic production, MIIT is planning to ask Chinese mask exporters to sell domestically.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2020, 02:34:08 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #212 on: January 30, 2020, 07:04:02 AM »
From the Chinese web site.

https://3g.dxy.cn/newh5/view/pneumonia?from=groupmessage&isappinstalled=0

截至 2020-01-29 21:08 全国数据统计
数据说明
7742
确诊病例
12167
疑似病例
170
死亡人数
131
治愈人数

As of 2020-01-29 21:08 National Statistics
The data shows:

Confirmed case    7,742
Suspected case  12,167
Death toll               170
Number of cures     131


vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #213 on: January 30, 2020, 07:37:46 AM »
Taiwan’s stock market has closed down 5.75% on its first day of trading after reopening following the lunar new year holiday.

There are also reports that the Taiwan government is planning to intervene to prop up the market. That begs the question of what will happen to China’s mainland stocks when trading recommences next week.

Today has seen another broad selloff on Asian stock markets with the Hang Seng in Hong Kong down 1.7% in the second successive day of losses. The Nikkei in Tokyo has fallen nearly 2% and the Kospi in Seoul is down 1.8%. The ASX200 in Sydney has closed down 0.3%. Chinese mainland markets are still closed for the new year holiday.

... The world’s most important policymaker, US Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, said on Wednesday that he was watching the situation in China closely.

“There is likely to be some disruption to activity in China and globally,” he said. “It’s very uncertain how far it will spread and what the (economic) effects will be in China, for its trading partners, and around the world.... We are very carefully monitoring the situation.”

The concerns were betrayed in the bond markets where the three-month-10-year US treasury yield curve inverted, a classic indicator of recession.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

El Cid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #214 on: January 30, 2020, 07:51:58 AM »
If this thing is uncontained then no question we are going to see a very sharp but very fast recession with a huge rebound thereafter. The Fed will cut rates to zero and everyone will restart quantitative easing like crazy. The streets would be empty, noone would go to the cinema, shops, etc...As services make up 70-80% of the modern economy, that would be a huge blow

KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #215 on: January 30, 2020, 08:59:35 AM »
We do not have enough information .
Too many ifs.
In the west the drastic actions taken in china would not happen until far to late to stop a pandemic.
If it is easily transmitted and individuals can infect others with out showing  symptoms themselves .......
What would be the impact with 20% of the population needing intensive care and 2% dead over a few months?
There is no rise in cases as yet in the west suggesting it is an emerging threat.
We will know in a few weeks until then  it needs to be watched carefully.
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #216 on: January 30, 2020, 11:41:56 AM »
vox_mundi:
There were no ‘AKA’s in the quote above. There were just a list of five screwy names, with noting to indicate there were two with two names each in the list except the number at the start.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #217 on: January 30, 2020, 12:12:40 PM »
63% of Infected Patients Undetected by Airport Screening
https://cmmid.github.io/ncov/airport_screening_report/airport_screening_preprint_2020_01_28.pdf

Almost two-thirds of airport screening tests fail to detect people with coronavirus, according to new research.

Researchers at the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine have modelled the effectiveness of screening based on estimates of the incubation period and sensitivity of detection techniques.

They found are using “generally conservative assumptions” more than 63% of infected patients do not get detected. A paper on the research warned that such screening “is only achievable if the rate of asymptomatic infections that are transmissible is negligible, screening sensitivity is almost perfect, and the incubation period is short.”

https://mobile.twitter.com/BQuilty/status/1222271221582221313

We've made an interactive tool to visualise the effectiveness of airport screening for detecting #2019nCoV cases. Adjust travel times, incubation period length, screening sensitivities and more at https://cmmid.github.io/ncov/airport-screening



---------------------

China Coronavirus: the Philippines, India Confirm First Cases

A 38-year-old Chinese woman, who arrived in the Philippines from Wuhan on January 21, has tested positive for the virus

And in India, a student who returned from the Chinese city at the epicentre of the outbreak has also been placed in isolation in a hospital in Kerala state

---------------------

Russia closes its border with China

Russia is closing its border with China to prevent the spread of coronavirus and will stop issuing electronic visas to Chinese nationals, AFP reports.

Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin told a government meeting that the order had been signed “to take measures to close the border (with China) in the Far East”.

“We have to do everything to protect our people,” he said.

---------------------------

China Coronavirus: Hong Kong Prisoners To Work Through the Night To Boost Mask Production To 70,000 a day

But source inside administration says extra supplies will be for government use

Inmates at Lo Wu Correctional Institution currently produce about 45,000 masks daily

------------------------

China Coronavirus: US Agriculture Secretary Unsure If Trade Deal Farm Purchase Agreement Will Be Affected

Coronavirus has cast further doubt on China’s ability to buy US$36.5 billion of agricultural goods from the United States in 2020 as part of the phase one trade deal.

US Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue says the outbreak will have ‘ramifications economy-wide’, though stopped short of saying it would disrupt purchase goal
« Last Edit: January 30, 2020, 02:14:28 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #218 on: January 30, 2020, 12:14:47 PM »
We are talking about a possible pandemic event.

Thousands of people will die. Millions maybe, who knows?

The amount of gewgaw we can sell during that time is of utter interest.

This is how brainwashed people have become. Markets, markets over everything.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #219 on: January 30, 2020, 01:05:33 PM »
We are talking about a possible pandemic event.

Thousands of people will die. Millions maybe, who knows?

The amount of gewgaw we can sell during that time is of utter interest.

This is how brainwashed people have become. Markets, markets over everything.

I don't care about gewgaws.
But as for markets, I do care about how everything from the stock market (I own some stocks) to my Just In Time grocery market will be affected if a quarter or a third of people are either sick or caring for the sick at the same time for up to a month.
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nanning

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #220 on: January 30, 2020, 01:18:38 PM »
Re: last blumenkraft post

"Thousands of people will die"..  how do you know that?

Sellers have buyers. Who is 'we'?
Welcome to the cultural unstoppable system of profit/commerce/fictional finance.
Even the AGW/Biosphere collapse threat can't change/stop it ;).
"It is preoccupation with possessions, more than anything else, that prevents us from living freely and nobly" - Bertrand Russell
"It is preoccupation with what other people from your groups think of you, that prevents you from living freely and nobly" - Nanning
Why do you keep accumulating stuff?

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #221 on: January 30, 2020, 01:22:38 PM »
bk: In general, I agree with your geegaw observation, however, in this particular case, the agricultural products mean food for the Chinese and employment for US agricultural workers.

However, the issue may be moot.

Should the virus go global in a big way (which it appears to be doing); all 5 global breadbaskets will not have enough workers to take care of the fields.

We only have ~ 40 days of carryover grain stock.

A vaccine is still 12-18 months away.

Famine will show up before then.

--------------------------

'Skunkworks’ at Johnson & Johnson is Rushing to Develop a Coronavirus Vaccine
https://www.inquirer.com/business/drugs/coronavirus-johnson-and-johnson-stoffels-wuhan-20200128.html?outputType=amp

The chief scientific officer at Johnson & Johnson said the company began work two weeks ago on a vaccine to battle the deadly coronavirus outbreak centered in China.

“At the moment we think we can make a vaccine and bring it to humans in the next eight to 12 months,” said Paul Stoffels in an interview with The Inquirer. “It might be faster. We have to get to the point we know where it works in animals first.”

Although eight to 12 months may sound glacially slow, pharmaceutical experts said the timeline was relatively rapid yet conservatively realistic.

The company is conducting its Wuhan coronavirus research in Leiden, in the Netherlands. Stoffels spoke to The Inquirer from Leiden after addressing scientists at its labs.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

bluice

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #222 on: January 30, 2020, 01:35:17 PM »
We are talking about a possible pandemic event.

Thousands of people will die. Millions maybe, who knows?

The amount of gewgaw we can sell during that time is of utter interest.

This is how brainwashed people have become. Markets, markets over everything.
I agree with the brainwashing, but we must not forget the same brainwashing has distorted the true meaning of an economy.

The economy is supposed to be our slave, not our master. It's not about market valuations, growth rates and the ever-growing amount of useless crap we sell to each other.  We need a functioning economy to support people's livelihoods, to put food an the table, to educate kids and to care for the sick and the elderly.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #223 on: January 30, 2020, 01:42:07 PM »
Cruise Ship in Italy On Lockdown In Virus Scare

Thousands of people are being kept on board an Italian cruise ship as tests are carried out on two Chinese passengers suspected of having caught coronavirus, a spokesman for the Costa Crociere cruise company has said.

Reuters reports:

... The couple arrived in Italy on 25 January and boarded the ship, the Costa Smeralda, in the port of Savona that same day. They subsequently came down with a fever and are suffering breathing difficulties.

The liner has visited Marseilles in France, and the Spanish ports of Barcelona and Palma de Mallorca this week before docking on Thursday at Civitavecchia, north of Rome.




----------------

Update: The Italian news agency Agenzia Ansa has reported that the Chinese couple suspected of catching Coronavirus have been tested negative.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2020, 03:57:40 PM by vox_mundi »
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #224 on: January 30, 2020, 01:42:42 PM »
Coronavirus Update: The Calm Before The Storm
https://www.peakprosperity.com/coronavirus-update-the-calm-before-the-storm/
Quote
The sudden lack of new information coming out of China has Chris spooked.
He walks us through the math here, showing how if the coronavirus follows its current geometric growth, over 100 million people could be infected by the end of February:
Don’t take today’s lack of ‘news’ as meaning the threat from this virus is dying down.
This could very likely just be the calm before the storm.
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bluice

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #225 on: January 30, 2020, 01:46:02 PM »
FWIW I doubt there is evidence that surgical masks, despite their popularity in Asia, prevent infections at all. They are meant to use in confined places such as operation rooms to protect vulnerable individuals such as patients under surgery. Hand sanitizer and good hygiene are likely to be far more useful.

Same applies to random fever controls on airports etc. Non-symptomatic carriers will be undetected as well as people who are infected but still able to lower temperature with anti-flammatory painkillers. The total effect of fever controls is probably net-negative, when taking into the account resources dedicated to handle false positives.

crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #226 on: January 30, 2020, 01:46:41 PM »
"Thousands of people will die"..  how do you know that?

172 deaths so far. Confirmed cases in last 4 days have gone from 941 to 7783. Looks to me like deaths will almost certainly follow increasing by a factor of least 6 needed to get past 1000. Or we could say back on Sunday estimated infections were 30,000 to 200,000 and death rate of 4% is lowest estimate I have seen. Even assuming low end 30,000, no increase from then, and lowest death rate gets to over a 1000.

I think we should be very relieved if death tolls stays below 2000. 

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #227 on: January 30, 2020, 02:03:34 PM »
Thailand admits it is 'unable to stop the spread' of China's deadly coronavirus as health minister warns more cases are coming
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-7938887/Thailand-admits-unable-stop-spread-Chinas-deadly-coronavirus.html
Quote
Health minister Anutin Charnvirakul said there are too many Chinese visitors
At least 22,000 people from Wuhan are believed to have visited in January
Thailand, with 14 cases, is so far the worst affected country outside of China
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blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #228 on: January 30, 2020, 02:10:52 PM »
"Thousands of people will die"..  how do you know that?

Maths.

Quote
Who is 'we'?

We are the people who need things to live.

The stock market is not what provides us such things. It's we the people who make things.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #229 on: January 30, 2020, 02:30:12 PM »
Quote
Jason Rabinowitz (@AirlineFlyer) 1/29/20, 8:04 PM
Still a whole ton of aviation happening in China. #WuhanCoronavirus #coronoavirus
https://twitter.com/airlineflyer/status/1222687051314802690
Image below.

Edit:
Airlines suspend China flights over coronavirus - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-airlines-factbox-idUSKBN1ZT1RZ
« Last Edit: January 30, 2020, 04:10:55 PM by Sigmetnow »
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El Cid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #230 on: January 30, 2020, 03:04:17 PM »


I don't care about gewgaws.
But as for markets, I do care about how everything from the stock market (I own some stocks) to my Just In Time grocery market will be affected if a quarter or a third of people are either sick or caring for the sick at the same time for up to a month.

Good luck with any grocery market if this one goes global :)
Buy enough food for at least a month if you are worried (potatoes, rice, beans, pasta, apples, onions , etc)

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #231 on: January 30, 2020, 03:08:49 PM »
Quote
FWIW I doubt there is evidence that surgical masks, despite their popularity in Asia, prevent infections at all. They are meant to use in confined places such as operation rooms to protect vulnerable individuals such as patients under surgery. Hand sanitizer and good hygiene are likely to be far more useful.

They are meant to cover the two orifices that lead to soft wet tissue (I'm sure it has a name), the mouth and the nose. The human skin offers outstanding protection against most infections, however soft tissues like lungs do not offer such protection. One virii might get through the mouth, travel straight to the stomach where it is broken down and eventually harmlessly pooped. Another virii might enter through the mouse but make the wrong turn and go into the lungs, where it finds a home inside a cell that it likes and trouble begins. The virii become virus.

With infections, the number of virus matter. A few may get lost in the system or be taken out by the immune system. But the more there are, the higher the chance a virus can assert itself. So cutting the amount of getting in is important.

On simple inspection, placing a barrier on the mouth and nose reduces the number of particles getting in, thus the number of virus entering is likely reduced. A PROPERLY FITTED N95 respirator is scientifically proven to block 95% of particulates. A shirt over the mouth might block 50%(completely made up number). 

As usual, it is not so simple. A properly fitted, properly donned and properly disposed of N95 respirator offers almost perfect protection. However, a used mask, an improperly worn mask or a damaged mask may not.

And that's only talking about personal protection. I think where masks truly shine is in preventing fluids from coming out of the body and becoming aerosolized in the first place.
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harpy

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vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #233 on: January 30, 2020, 03:50:26 PM »
No context. No video date. Fake News?
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #234 on: January 30, 2020, 04:24:23 PM »
May 10, 2018: Top White House Official in Charge of Pandemic Response Exits Abruptly
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp/2018/05/10/top-white-house-official-in-charge-of-pandemic-response-exits-abruptly/?outputType=amp

Rear Adm. R. Timothy Ziemer the Trump administration's senior director for global health security and biodefense at the National Security Council, and top White House official responsible for leading the U.S. response in the event of a deadly pandemic has left the administration, and the global health security team he oversaw has been disbanded under a reorganization by national security adviser John Bolton.

The abrupt departure of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer from the National Security Council means no senior administration official is now focused solely on global health security.
Ziemer’s departure, along with the breakup of his team, comes at a time when many experts say the country is already underprepared for the increasing risks of a pandemic or bioterrorism.

--------------------

January 22, 2020: Trump: Chinese Coronavirus 'Totally Under Control'
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/01/22/trump-chinese-coronavirus-totally-under-control-102054

President Donald Trump said today the U.S. has a deadly Chinese coronavirus “totally under control” and there are no worries of a pandemic. ... “It’s going to be just fine.” ...



--------------------

January 29, 2020: White House Announces Task Force to Monitor Coronavirus Pandemic
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/480627-white-house-announces-task-force-to-monitor-coronavirus?amp

The White House on Wednesday announced the formation of a task force to monitor the coronavirus as global health officials seek to combat the outbreak of the disease in China.

Press secretary Stephanie Grisham said in a statement that the task force has met daily since Monday and will lead the government response to monitor and contain the disease. President Trump chaired a meeting on the matter at the White House earlier Wednesday. (... Mr anti-science, himself)

Secretary of Health and Human Services Alex Azar is leading the task force, the White House said. Other members include national security adviser Robert O'Brien, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield, top National Institutes of Health official Anthony Fauci and several other administration officials.

-----------------------------

U.S. Warned to Prepare for Worst on Coronavirus
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-china-us-experts-spread-preparation-6997e54b-b3b5-4999-a0b7-5bd0a881e647.html

The U.S. should be preparing for the worst as the Chinese coronavirus spreads, and somebody at the White House needs to be in charge of coordinating that effort, public health experts say.

The big picture: The virus may never become a crisis here, but experts say the responsible thing right now is to plan for the worst and hope that those plans aren't needed.

The catch: The National Security Council official who would have been in charge of leading the response to a pandemic left in 2018, and now no one is around to do the job.

Containing and combating a viral outbreak involves border patrol and national security officials; public health agencies at the federal, state and local levels; public and private vaccine researchers; and coordinating with individual hospitals.

What’s next: Experts say there are a handful of priorities at this stage.

Hospitals need to stock up on protective equipment, to the extent they can find more supplies.

Health care workers are particularly susceptible to catching and spreading viruses like this one. But in terms of having enough protective equipment on hand, hospitals are "woefully unprepared" for a large-scale outbreak, Osterholm said.

The federal government also needs to be ready to step in, if a large number of cases start to crop up in concentrated areas.

Tracking infected people's contacts is "going to overwhelm state and local public health departments very, very quickly," Klain said.

It makes sense to put one person in charge of coordinating all of that, Klain said.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2020, 06:03:18 PM by vox_mundi »
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #235 on: January 30, 2020, 04:25:01 PM »


I don't care about gewgaws.
But as for markets, I do care about how everything from the stock market (I own some stocks) to my Just In Time grocery market will be affected if a quarter or a third of people are either sick or caring for the sick at the same time for up to a month.

Good luck with any grocery market if this one goes global :)
Buy enough food for at least a month if you are worried (potatoes, rice, beans, pasta, apples, onions , etc)
I live in a small apartment style condo with limited storage space. I have some stocks of food, especially this time of year (I live at the western end of Lake Erie’s snowbelt) but there is no way I can store enough for a month.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #236 on: January 30, 2020, 04:30:21 PM »
Quote
Jason Rabinowitz (@AirlineFlyer) 1/29/20, 8:04 PM
Still a whole ton of aviation happening in China. #WuhanCoronavirus #coronoavirus
https://twitter.com/airlineflyer/status/1222687051314802690
Image below.

Edit:
Airlines suspend China flights over coronavirus - Reuters
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-airlines-factbox-idUSKBN1ZT1RZ
That’s good to know, but I suspect it is to little too late.
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SteveMDFP

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #237 on: January 30, 2020, 04:44:50 PM »

I live in a small apartment style condo with limited storage space. I have some stocks of food, especially this time of year (I live at the western end of Lake Erie’s snowbelt) but there is no way I can store enough for a month.

Dried rice and beans are compact and non-perishable.  In a pinch, a backpack full will last a month.  Even if your living space is just a closet, that should be doable.

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #238 on: January 30, 2020, 04:51:07 PM »
Surely you can fit a pail of "food" somewhere:

https://www.amazon.com/Augason-Farms-30-Day-Emergency-Storage/dp/B083G4MYQJ/ref=sr_1_1

It just requires some flexibility with the term "food".
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gerontocrat

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #239 on: January 30, 2020, 05:07:46 PM »
Hoarding food just makes a bad situation worse, or creates a bad situation where one does not exist as is the case in the USA so far.

The USA produces a food surplus. If things get really bad internationally, the problem for the USA will be not being able to export that surplus. This is already worrying US soya and corn farmers & exporters.

Having hysterical knee-jerk reactions based on social media crap that has no basis in reality is really childish.


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KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #240 on: January 30, 2020, 05:16:53 PM »
Rice, beans, pasta.
Add flavor.
You will not stave.
Providing you have water and the ability to cook .
Ok for me I don't rely on anyone else for power, water and sewage disposal.
Some of you may need to reconsider such necessity's if this does take off.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #241 on: January 30, 2020, 05:19:32 PM »
Hoarding food just makes a bad situation worse, or creates a bad situation where one does not exist as is the case in the USA so far.

The USA produces a food surplus. If things get really bad internationally, the problem for the USA will be not being able to export that surplus. This is already worrying US soya and corn farmers & exporters.

Having hysterical knee-jerk reactions based on social media crap that has no basis in reality is really childish.
gerontocrat, my worry is not that the US does not produce enough food to feed itself. My worry is that it won't be able to get that food to the restaurants and store shelves for an uncertain period.
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blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #242 on: January 30, 2020, 05:30:24 PM »
China coronavirus spreads to India and Philippines | DW News



vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #243 on: January 30, 2020, 05:38:04 PM »
Men May Be More Prone to Coronavirus Than Women, Chinese Study Finds
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3048295/men-may-be-more-prone-coronavirus-women-chinese-study-finds

The study – published in The Lancet on Wednesday – was carried out by a team of doctors at Wuhan’s Jinyintan Hospital, which has handled a number of coronavirus patients, along with researchers from Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Ruijin Hospital in Shanghai.

The researchers based the study on 99 patients – 67 men and 32 women – admitted to the Wuhan hospital from January 1 to 20. It found that almost half of them were infected in clusters, though Chinese health authorities only confirmed that cases were being transmitted between humans on January 21.

... Half of the patients also had other chronic diseases such as heart problems or diabetes, the researchers said.

They said the mortality rate of the 99 cases was 11 per cent. That compares to an earlier study by doctors from the same hospital and other Chinese scientists based on 41 patients, which put the mortality rate at 15 per cent.

One-third of the patients in the study developed complications and organ failure. Some 17 per cent developed acute respiratory distress syndrome, a serious lung condition, while 8 per cent experienced an acute lung injury and 3 per cent had kidney failure or damage.


Based on these findings, the researchers said early diagnosis and treatment of the coronavirus was crucial.

All of the 99 patients taken to the hospital had pneumonia - their lungs were inflamed and the tiny sacs where oxygen moves from the air to the blood were filling with water.

Other symptoms were:
  • 82 had fever
  • 81 had a cough
  • 31 had shortness of breath
  • 11 had muscle ache
  • nine had confusion
  • eight had a headache
  • five had a sore throat
The South China Morning Post has reported that many patients with flu and respiratory symptoms had been turned away by hospitals in Wuhan because of a shortage of beds.

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext
https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

----------------------------

China Coronavirus: Study Places Incubation Period Around 5 Days
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/article/3048164/china-coronavirus-study-places-incubation-period-around-5-days

The period between exposure to the new coronavirus that originated in China and symptoms is 5.2 days on average, but varies greatly among patients, according to one of the largest studies yet published on the deadly epidemic.

While admitting that the estimate is “imprecise”, the Chinese team behind a paper published in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) on Wednesday said their findings support a 14-day medical observation period for people exposed to the pathogen.

They also estimated that each infected person then infected an average of 2.2 other people, a figure known as the basic reproductive number, or R0 (pronounced “R-naught”).

The team also found that human-to-human transmission had been occurring among close contacts since the middle of December 2019.

Early Transmission Dynamics in Wuhan, China, of Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2001316
https://www.nejm.org/coronavirus

---------------------------------

Infection Map
https://www.healthmap.org/ncov2019/

----------------------------------

Coronavirus: What It Does To the Body
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51214864

Coronavirus: How Are Patients Treated?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51295415

----------------------------------

South Korea Reports Local Human-to-Human Virus Transmission
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-01-south-korea-local-human-to-human-virus.html

---------------------------------

The flu has killed 8,200 Americans since September, the CDC estimates.
« Last Edit: January 30, 2020, 05:56:08 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #244 on: January 30, 2020, 05:43:27 PM »
I think this is an outstanding video explaining many details of the current threat:

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El Cid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #245 on: January 30, 2020, 05:49:14 PM »
Hoarding food just makes a bad situation worse, or creates a bad situation...

Having hysterical knee-jerk reactions based on social media crap that has no basis in reality is really childish.

Buying up lots of (unperishable) food is a zero cost option: You will eventually eat it all up even if there is no emergency. And if there is, you are better off (possibly by far). No risk, potential payout: huge. Best option ever

In every serious cataclysm those who panic first have the best chance to come out of it well (to put it differently: shoot first, ask questions later. And yes it could be harmful for society as a whole. But such are men: not selfless. We have plenty of experience with the above in Central/Eastern Europe

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #246 on: January 30, 2020, 06:07:53 PM »
I think this is an outstanding video explaining many details of the current threat:


This is an excellent lesson on virus and the immune system.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #247 on: January 30, 2020, 06:08:55 PM »
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #248 on: January 30, 2020, 06:20:04 PM »
Now I agree with El Cid. Something is not right.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #249 on: January 30, 2020, 06:20:12 PM »
Update 6:00  Zulu
8235 cases
171 dead.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Fatality still running over 5%
with full medical infrastructure available
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