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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 341393 times)

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #250 on: January 30, 2020, 06:26:12 PM »
Ok. Fatality is not a good measure to watch for the severity of this disease. China can build a hospital in a matter of weeks. Everyone gets healthcare. They have billions available to treat.

In a place with fewer resources, it would be running a lot higher. I 'm more interested in knowing what percentage of the patients end up hospitalized. ICU internment probably lost its meaning as prioritization takes place.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

GoodeWeather

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #251 on: January 30, 2020, 06:28:01 PM »
Update 6:00  Zulu
8235 cases
171 dead.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Fatality still running over 5%
with full medical infrastructure available

Quick math check shows less than half that number.  More like 2.08%

I do expect that number to grow as over 20% of cases are listed as sever.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #252 on: January 30, 2020, 06:30:25 PM »
Quote
Ok. Fatality is not a good measure to watch for the severity of this disease. China can build a hospital in a matter of weeks. Everyone gets healthcare. They have billions available to treat.
How is it in your country? How is it in mine (USA)?
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #253 on: January 30, 2020, 06:31:26 PM »
Update 6:00  Zulu
8235 cases
171 dead.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
Fatality still running over 5%
with full medical infrastructure available

Quick math check shows less than half that number.  More like 2.08%

I do expect that number to grow as over 20% of cases are listed as sever.
Dang.
That will teach me to check my math when I do it in my head (senior moment there).
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #254 on: January 30, 2020, 06:40:17 PM »
Hoarding food just makes a bad situation worse, or creates a bad situation where one does not exist as is the case in the USA so far.

The USA produces a food surplus. If things get really bad internationally, the problem for the USA will be not being able to export that surplus. This is already worrying US soya and corn farmers & exporters.

Having hysterical knee-jerk reactions based on social media crap that has no basis in reality is really childish.

The apocalyptic posts on this thread are pretty ridiculous. Get a grip.

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #255 on: January 30, 2020, 06:41:42 PM »
Its the same country, as far as I am concerned. Others may differ.

I have the chance to participate in several mass casualty events as a hospital worker. I know exactly what a hospital overcapacity looks like on both my island and on the mainland. A threat that spreads as easy as this and with high severity to boot, would be disastrous in both, but much worse in mine. Small island vs continent, dense population and poor governance. I'm hoping the warm climate helps keep it away.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #256 on: January 30, 2020, 06:47:24 PM »
Senator Calls For Immediate Shut Down of All Flights From China to U.S.
https://summit.news/2020/01/30/senator-calls-for-immediate-shut-down-of-all-flights-from-china-to-u-s/
Quote
Senator Tom Cotton is calling for an immediate shut down of all flights from China to the U.S., warning that Beijing is lying about the full extent of the coronavirus outbreak.
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GoodeWeather

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #257 on: January 30, 2020, 06:52:38 PM »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #258 on: January 30, 2020, 06:55:17 PM »
Hoarding food just makes a bad situation worse, or creates a bad situation where one does not exist as is the case in the USA so far.

The USA produces a food surplus. If things get really bad internationally, the problem for the USA will be not being able to export that surplus. This is already worrying US soya and corn farmers & exporters.

Having hysterical knee-jerk reactions based on social media crap that has no basis in reality is really childish.

The apocalyptic posts on this thread are pretty ridiculous. Get a grip.

This will either blow over or blow up.
If it blows over, I will lock the thread in a month or two and you can forget about it.
If it blows up, the posts on this thread will be the least of your worries.
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Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #259 on: January 30, 2020, 07:01:44 PM »
SH. I remember 10 years ago when I watched hurricanes forecast after hurricane forecast predict massive destruction only to fail. In the last few years, it has been the opposite. The catastrophe was predicted and they became true.


More than ever I hope you are right. But the threat seems to be real, the solutions are difficult and uncertain.

But I haven't seen anyone mention apocalypse. Only a disaster. After we've all had it we either die from it or become immune to it. The world continues with the immunes.  This shouldn't last more than a few seasons. This is not going to be worse than a BOE.

But it would suck if it spreads.
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GoodeWeather

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #260 on: January 30, 2020, 07:04:40 PM »
SH. I remember 10 years ago when I watched hurricanes forecast after hurricane forecast predict massive destruction only to fail. In the last few years, it has been the opposite. The catastrophe was predicted and they became true.


More than ever I hope you are right. But the threat seems to be real, the solutions are difficult and uncertain.

But I haven't seen anyone mention apocalypse. Only a disaster. After we've all had it we either die from it or become immune to it. The world continues with the immunes.  This shouldn't last more than a few seasons. This is not going to be worse than a BOE.

But it would suck if it spreads.

This part just made me think of "The Maze Runner" series.   8)

KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #261 on: January 30, 2020, 07:12:06 PM »
I have seen the flu statistics used to claim this is not a threat here and on open mind .
CDC estimates The flu has killed 8,200 Americans since September, From about 15,000,000 cases..
One death per 1800 infections.
This virus has killed 171 from 8235 cases.
One death in 48 .
With a corresponding difference in the number of Intensive care admissions.

No one knows what the real situation with this virus is.

Don't panic!
Watch and act if it escalates in the west.
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
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Alexander555

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bluice

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #263 on: January 30, 2020, 07:35:37 PM »
So far virtually all infected have some connection to Wuhan. Wuhan is quarantined and people with symptoms and a connection to Wuhan closely monitored wherever they go.  I doubt this will become pandemic although everything is possible of course.

Few things to watch:
Local epidemics or lockouts in other major Chinese cities.
Sustained person to person infections outside China.
Another infection hotspot, especially if somewhere with poor health care

philopek

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #264 on: January 30, 2020, 07:43:48 PM »
I have seen the flu statistics used to claim this is not a threat here and on open mind .
CDC estimates The flu has killed 8,200 Americans since September, From about 15,000,000 cases..
One death per 1800 infections.
This virus has killed 171 from 8235 cases.
One death in 48 .
With a corresponding difference in the number of Intensive care admissions.


No one knows what the real situation with this virus is.

Don't panic!
Watch and act if it escalates in the west.

a good example how the correct numbers can be used and abused depending on bias.

what is important, the number of cases or the death rate ?

Flu is far more widely spread than this and kills way more people over all and nobody makes a big story from it.

further we dunno how many are infected with this one, could be several millions and we just dunno.

so beside the fact that there are too many unknowns to make a good statement, for me it's obvious that this is a blown story.

8000 cases even 80'000 cases or 800'000 cases are nothing as compared to other infections world wide, flu is just one of them, it's dozens of millions as compared to the few thousand here.

death rate we dunno yet because i assume that many are infected and sitting put at home and taking aspirin, preferring this over getting involved.

imagine this without media and then consider the mainstream media's motives "et voilà"

some members here are apparently bored and seek the hype and the kick. i suggest to watch and see and always compare current numbers to the larger scale. 10000 known cases out of 1.4Billion Chinese, and then out of 7.7 Billions world wide is less than almost any other cause of death we're aware of and then they're not even all dead but only 1-2% of the know cases are dead and in reality it's even less considering that many more than known are infected.

last but not least most dead were in not a perfect shape health wise, makes all the hype looking even more ridiculous.

"Qui Bono" is another question that comes to my mind and then it does not matter what color a sheep's fur has, sheep are sheep and are know to follow their incapable leaders over the cliff ;) ;)

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #265 on: January 30, 2020, 07:51:44 PM »
If it spreads across the planet it will kill 50 to 100 million people.

bluice

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #266 on: January 30, 2020, 08:05:55 PM »
Well put, philopek

How many people die because of air pollution in China? Yet they don’t declare lockouts or extend holidays to keep the coal plants closed.

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #267 on: January 30, 2020, 08:14:28 PM »
Quote
Flu is far more widely spread than this and kills way more people over all and nobody makes a big story from it.

are you seriously ignoring the proportions here? 1:1800 and 1:48 are two orders of magnitude apart ON top of that most flu cases don't even require professional medical care, they are easily resolved at home. This thing puts in the ICU 20% of the people that get it. Remove the ICU and the 2 orders of magnitude likely become 3.

Your threat assessment is way off. Sweet to hear and comfortable to the ears, but way off.

We don't stop the world for the common cold. We do for killer colds.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

kassy

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #268 on: January 30, 2020, 08:25:49 PM »
ow many people die because of air pollution in China? Yet they don’t declare lockouts or extend holidays to keep the coal plants closed.

That is just attrition rate so not that interesting to a government developing a nation first.

This is different because it both spreads from people to people and has a considerable death rate.

I am mostly interested in the spread in the places we can reliably track it outside of China. So US and EU and if clusters pop up without obvious links to China.
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #269 on: January 30, 2020, 08:26:34 PM »
Flu is far more widely spread than this and kills way more people over all and nobody makes a big story from it.

False equivalence is a logical fallacy in which two incompatible arguments appear to be logically equivalent when in fact they are not.

This coronavirus first emerged into  humans only about one month ago .  Flu has been endemic in human populations for eons.  When the flu virus mutated into the strain called Spanish flu it killed 3 to 5 % of the human population in a single year.  The world is a lot smaller than it was in 1918.  Even in my remote corner of the world there are busloads of potential vectors less than a day from the epicenter of infection passing by only 7km from here.

Watch the numbers .....
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gerontocrat

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #270 on: January 30, 2020, 08:35:03 PM »
Looking on the bright side......(?)

From the New York Times....

Virus Updates: U.S. Reports First Case of Human-to-Human Transmission

- The World Health Organization will meet again today to decide whether to declare the coronavirus epidemic an international public health emergency.

- Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the coronavirus outbreak could be good for the U.S., prompting employers to move jobs to America.
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Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #271 on: January 30, 2020, 08:44:05 PM »
And probably it will kill more than 50 to 100 million people if it spreads across the globe. If you look at just China. Airline after airline is cancelling it's flights to China. Sport and music events are cancelled already until March, April.... If that happens on a global scale. In a highly competitive economic environment. With zero interest rates and a fast growing pile of debt. You can be sure that there are billions of people out there with very little reserves. Banks will start to pile up bad loans. And people are going to get a lot more stress. And the virus kills people with a weak immune system. And that will be under attack from all that stress. That situation is like a giant buffet for that virus.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #272 on: January 30, 2020, 08:48:03 PM »
Looking on the bright side......(?)
Males over 50 are over represented in the death toll.
If it breaks out it will kill off many climate denying boomers

 ;D

opps
 I am a male boomer .
 :-\
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Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #273 on: January 30, 2020, 08:58:42 PM »
For the climate it would be good. Starbucks closed half of all it's shops in China, so they don't need to be supplied. Far less traffic on the roads. Many factories are closed. So they will need a couple million barrels of oil less every day.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #274 on: January 30, 2020, 09:08:38 PM »
Looking on the bright side......(?)
Males over 50 are over represented in the death toll.
If it breaks out it will kill off many climate denying boomers

 ;D

opps
 I am a male boomer .
 :-\
So am I, KiwiGriff (61 going on 62).
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #275 on: January 30, 2020, 09:08:58 PM »
WHO Declares Global Emergency But Stresses Confidence in China
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jan/30/coronavirus-live-updates-china-death-toll-wuhan-evacuation-foreign-nationals-citizens-latest-news

The WHO have declared a public health emergency because of the spread of the virus outside of China, describing it as an “unprecedented outbreak”.

The total number of cases outside of China has reached 98 across 18 countries, Tedros Adhanom, the director general of WHO, told a press conference.

Eight cases outside China have spread via human to human contact, in Germany, Japan, Vietnam and the US.

... The United States announced its first human-to-human transmission case on Thursday just prior to the WHO’s announcement, following the positive diagnosis of a Chicago resident who contracted the illness from his wife.

In another case confirmed earlier this week, a 33-year-old German man was infected with the disease by a colleague visiting from China. That colleague was reported to have shown no symptoms at the time of transmission.

-----------------------------

Here are the latest figures on the virus:

Globally, there are 7,818 confirmed cases.

Of these, 7,736 are in China. In the country, 1,370 cases have been classed as severe, and there are a further 12,167 suspected cases. The number of official deaths, 170, hasn’t changed since last night.

Outside of China, there are 82 confirmed cases spanning 18 countries.

------------------------------

Hong Kong figures are slightly higher

Globally confirmed = 8261
Mainland China = 8140
Dead = 171

-----------------

Looking on the bright side?

- Betcha we'll meet the Paris Accord CO2 Emission Targets this year  :)

- Housing will become 'more affordable'
« Last Edit: January 30, 2020, 09:14:15 PM by vox_mundi »
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kassy

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #276 on: January 30, 2020, 09:09:19 PM »
Males over 50 are over represented in the death toll.

The pattern is interesting. We have to wait and see if it holds.
Flu is also a problem for pregnant women but they did not feature so far.
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #277 on: January 30, 2020, 09:10:56 PM »
For the climate it would be good. Starbucks closed half of all it's shops in China, so they don't need to be supplied. Far less traffic on the roads. Many factories are closed. So they will need a couple million barrels of oil less every day.
And as the economy collapses the aerosol dimming goes down (unless it's bad enough a shock to start a nuclear war).
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #278 on: January 30, 2020, 09:14:45 PM »
WHO Declares Coronavirus Outbreak A 'Global Pandemic'
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-live-who-reveals-decision-coronavirus-pandemic-status
Quote
After a brief delay, the WHO is finally ready to hold a press conference to discuss the outcome of its third straight emergency session.
A few hours ago, the CDC confirmed the first case of human-to-human transmission in the US, bringing the total number of countries that have recorded human-to-human cases to four (Germany, Japan, South Korea, Thailand and the US).
The WHO is now widely expected to label the nCoV breakout a global pandemic, potentially triggering another leg lower in stocks.
The press conference which will take place in Geneva, Switzerland, where the organization is based, will be led by Director-General Dr. Tedros Ghebreyesus. Many suspect that he will finally acquiesce to labeling the nCoV outbreak a ' Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC).'
WHO twice decided against embracing the label last week.

Sorry for the quote edit, I thought the earlier quote was the end of the article (stupid ads).
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bluice

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #279 on: January 30, 2020, 09:52:26 PM »
Males over 50 are over represented in the death toll.

The pattern is interesting. We have to wait and see if it holds.
Flu is also a problem for pregnant women but they did not feature so far.
I wonder if biases such as smoking have been removed from the data? These studies are obviously being done in hurry.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #280 on: January 30, 2020, 10:15:37 PM »
Co-Chief Investment Officer & Co-Chairman of Bridgewater Associates, Ray "Dumb shit" Dalio, prognosticates about the effect of 2019-nCoV on the financial markets for the benefit of his investors:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/our-early-thinking-coronavirus-pandemics-ray-dalio/

Quote
As for the spreading of this virus, as with any sort of unknown, there are 1) actual events and 2) the expectations of events that get reflected in market pricing.  Generally speaking these once-in-a-lifetime big bad things initially are under-worried about and continue to progress until they become over-worried about, until the fundamentals for the reversal happen (e.g., the virus switches from accelerating to diminishing). So we want to pay attention to what’s actually happening, what people believe is happening that is reflected in pricing (relative to what’s likely), and what indicators that will indicate the reversal.
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #281 on: January 30, 2020, 11:35:16 PM »
This virus has killed 171 from 8235 cases.
One death in 48 .

Sam has stressed that this is a dangerous relationship to rely on. The 171 deaths may predominately come from cases that were confirmed a few days ago.

25th January Hubei has 52 deaths and 1052 confirmed cases 4.9%
29th January Hubei has 90 deaths and 4586 confirmed cases 2.0%

This rapid change (factor almost 2.5) should give pause for thought.

If there is on average a 4 day delay between case being confirmed and death then it might be more appropriate to calculate 90 / 1052 which gives 8.6%. 4 days might be too much or too little of an adjustment.

OTOH mild cases never confirmed will mean actual death rate will be lower per actual infection compared to rate per confirmed infection.

sark

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #282 on: January 31, 2020, 12:07:27 AM »
This is the big one.  Case fatality rate is anywhere from 2-10% and number infected right now is around 100,000.  Very few regions will keep this out.  I'm going fishing, good luck.
I am not a scientist

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #283 on: January 31, 2020, 12:15:15 AM »
The official web site for the local government (http://www.hubei.gov.cn/) is quite readable even using your favourite translator.

They update the numbers daily, some of which never make it to other reports (the WHO situation reports seem to sum up patients in severe and critical condition and call them "severe").

The latest update on the Hubei web site:
32340 under observation
5806 confirmed cases
804 severely ill
290 critically ill
204 deaths
116 released patients

I got stuck browsing that website, a lot of information and an insight in how the local government is handling the situation. One of the news on the site today was that a science team has sequenced the entire genome of the virus. The go-ahead to start research was given on jan 10. So they set up a high-security lab, manned it, isolated the virus and mapped the whole genome in about 3 weeks. Quite impressive I would say.

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #284 on: January 31, 2020, 12:39:32 AM »
From The Guardian ...

Here are the latest figures:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jan/30/coronavirus-live-updates-china-death-toll-wuhan-evacuation-foreign-nationals-citizens-latest-news

The virus has spread to at least 9,320 people around the world.

212 people have died, all in China, meaning that the death toll has surpassed that of the Sars epidemic over a year long period (2002-2003).

There are 98 confirmed cases of infection outside mainland China in at least 18 countries.

--------------------------

From South China Morning Post (Hong Kong) ...

Global Confirmed = 9480
Mainland China = 9356   
Dead = 213
« Last Edit: January 31, 2020, 12:45:08 AM by vox_mundi »
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Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #285 on: January 31, 2020, 01:34:33 AM »
Today's first numbers from China.

截至 2020-01-30 16:09 全国数据统计
数据说明
  9,720 确诊病例
15,238 疑似病例
    213 死亡人数
    171 治愈人数

As of 2020-01-30 16:09 National Statistics
Data description
  9,720 Confirmed cases
15,238 Suspected Cases
     213 Deaths
     171 Number of Cures

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #286 on: January 31, 2020, 01:37:07 AM »
This virus has killed 171 from 8235 cases.
One death in 48 .

Sam has stressed that this is a dangerous relationship to rely on. The 171 deaths may predominately come from cases that were confirmed a few days ago.

25th January Hubei has 52 deaths and 1052 confirmed cases 4.9%
29th January Hubei has 90 deaths and 4586 confirmed cases 2.0%

This rapid change (factor almost 2.5) should give pause for thought.

If there is on average a 4 day delay between case being confirmed and death then it might be more appropriate to calculate 90 / 1052 which gives 8.6%. 4 days might be too much or too little of an adjustment.

OTOH mild cases never confirmed will mean actual death rate will be lower per actual infection compared to rate per confirmed infection.

The latest paper suggests that the appropriate delay (admission to death) is a little over 5 days indicating a ~12% case fatality rate.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #287 on: January 31, 2020, 02:40:06 AM »
Coronavirus declared global health emergency by WHO...
Quote
Jesper olsen (@Jesper_M_Olsen) 1/30/20, 3:24 PM

this is the sixth time that the WHO uses its large alarm button:

2009: H1N1

2014: Ebola

2014: Polio

2015: Zika

2018: Ebola

2020: Coronavirus (2019-nCoV)
https://twitter.com/jesper_m_olsen/status/1222978836192800774
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #288 on: January 31, 2020, 03:26:01 AM »
My friend in Toastmasters heard from my Chinese friend that the part of her family back in China is still OK.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #289 on: January 31, 2020, 06:25:31 AM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jan/31/coronavirus-live-updates-china-wuhan-death-toll-who-global-health-emergency-latest-news





https://mobile.twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1223035330736996353

Charts show daily figures of confirmed cases of novel #coronavirus in Hubei Province and all of China. Hubei reported 1220 new cases and 42 deaths on Thursday compared with 1982 new cases and 43 deaths nationwide.

---------------------------

Are Americans Safe From the Coronavirus?

.... In only 3 years, Trump has eliminated the office of pandemic response, drastically scaled back the CDC’s overseas outbreak prevention efforts & discontinued a surveillance program meant to detect new viral threats.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/29/opinion/coronavirus-outbreak.html

https://mobile.twitter.com/KenRoth/status/1223079421416001539

... If it takes root here it will fall hardest on the working poor, who don’t get paid if they don’t show up and/or fear losing their jobs if they don’t go to work. The lack of paid sick leave policies is a danger to all of us.

----------------------


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/31/a-man-lies-dead-in-the-street-the-image-that-captures-the-wuhan-coronavirus-crisis

It is an image that captures the chilling reality of the coronavirus outbreak in the Chinese city of Wuhan: a grey-haired man wearing a face mask lies dead on the pavement, a plastic shopping bag in one hand, as police and medical staff in full protective suits and masks prepare to take him away.

On what would typically be a crowded street in Wuhan, an industrial city of 11 million people under quarantine, there are only a few passersby – but they dare not go near him.

Journalists from Agence France-Presse saw the body on Thursday morning, not long before a vehicle arrived carrying emergency workers.

---------------------

China Coronavirus: African Nations Quarantine Symptomatic Passengers from China but No Cases Confirmed
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3048310/china-coronavirus-african-nations-quarantine-symptomatic-passengers

A patient under medical observation in Ivory Coast has tested negative, health officials say

In Sudan, health minister Akram Ali Altoum announced that two of its citizens were being examined after displaying symptoms following a visit to Wuhan, the epicentre of the outbreak. “We received two suspected cases who came from China through Cairo and Addis Ababa,” Altoum said, adding that infections had not been confirmed.

... Lack of equipped medical labs and kits raises fears that many African countries may not have the capacity to detect and handle the virus.

--------------------------

A second case of the virus has been confirmed in Queensland, bringing Australia’s total number of cases to nine.

A Chinese man with coronavirus boarded a flight from Melbourne to the Gold Coast on 27 January, and Australian authorities have confirmed that a second passenger on the flight has tested positive for the virus.

Authorities are now attempting to track down the other passengers on the flight - 170 people, excluding the two confirmed cases.


-------------------------

Movie 'Contagion' Goes Viral
https://www.theguardian.com/film/2020/jan/30/what-can-we-learn-about-coronavirus-from-watching-contagion

... There is no word yet on how the growing audience for Contagion is divided among countries or continents, but it must be the case that viewers have been watching it as a sort of “how to” guide in the event of a catastrophe in their vicinity. Or at least a “what to” – what to expect when you’re expecting an pandemic.



---------------------------------
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #290 on: January 31, 2020, 06:56:10 AM »
Up date 1630 zulu.
9776 confirmed.
213 deaths.
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Please don't get me wrong.
I do not think these numbers are 100% reliable
What I do think is they give a good approximation over time of the progress of the epidemic.
We can make arguments that the number of infections  are massively underrepresented and the death rate is lower
Or  as others have done make claims it is higher
My point was it is considerably  more dangerous than the common flu.

Again watch the numbers.
Read all our  contributions on here and create your own  informed opinion of what is happening.
You will be as or better informed than anyone reading just the MSM .


« Last Edit: January 31, 2020, 07:17:24 AM by KiwiGriff »
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #291 on: January 31, 2020, 07:03:17 AM »
Quote
Lack of equipped medical labs and kits raises fears that many African countries may not have the capacity to detect and handle the virus.
My concern is India at present.
Only 1 case reported. I find that hard to believe.
If it gets into  a densely populated city like Mumbai with an unprepared population it will create havoc .
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #292 on: January 31, 2020, 07:35:53 AM »
China’s getting a lot more isolated from the world this week
https://qz.com/1793858/wuhan-virus-borders-closed-airlines-cancel-china-flights/
Quote
The US and Britain have issued travel warnings for China in light of the outbreak. Globally, more than a dozen airlines have suspended routes to mainland China. United Airlines cited a “significant decline in demand” for its move—China has quarantined over a dozen cities and barred overseas travel by tour groups. While some have cut flights for two weeks, in some cases the suspensions stretch until April.

U.S. warns citizens against travel to China as virus toll tops 200
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health/us-warns-citizens-against-travel-to-china-as-virus-toll-tops-200-idUSKBN1ZT374
Quote
In a new travel advisory, the State Department raised its warning for China to the same level as Afghanistan and Iraq, saying on its website, “Do not travel to China due to novel coronavirus first identified in Wuhan.”
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #293 on: January 31, 2020, 10:27:37 AM »

People's daily
8 hours ago from Weibo video Edited
[ #New pneumonia death mainly in the senior population # ] Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said in an interview with CCTV: The new type of coronavirus pneumonia is not as severe as imagined. An important indicator of our measurement of this disease is mortality. From the analysis of more than 7,000 confirmed patients across the country, we see that people under the age of 30 have basically not died. Then the mortality rate of people aged 40 to 59 is only 0.2%, and the death mainly occurs in the elderly (population). Weibo video from People's Daily
o
https://m.weibo.cn/status/4466726898641560?
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Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #294 on: January 31, 2020, 10:31:02 AM »
Another thing that can be done is partial herd immunity through vitamin C.

Vitamin C and Immune Function.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29099763

Quote
Vitamin C is an essential micronutrient for humans, with pleiotropic functions related to its ability to donate electrons. It is a potent antioxidant and a cofactor for a family of biosynthetic and gene regulatory enzymes. Vitamin C contributes to immune defense by supporting various cellular functions of both the innate and adaptive immune system. Vitamin C supports epithelial barrier function against pathogens and promotes the oxidant scavenging activity of the skin, thereby potentially protecting against environmental oxidative stress. Vitamin C accumulates in phagocytic cells, such as neutrophils, and can enhance chemotaxis, phagocytosis, generation of reactive oxygen species, and ultimately microbial killing. It is also needed for apoptosis and clearance of the spent neutrophils from sites of infection by macrophages, thereby decreasing necrosis/NETosis and potential tissue damage. The role of vitamin C in lymphocytes is less clear, but it has been shown to enhance differentiation and proliferation of B- and T-cells, likely due to its gene regulating effects. Vitamin C deficiency results in impaired immunity and higher susceptibility to infections. In turn, infections significantly impact on vitamin C levels due to enhanced inflammation and metabolic requirements. Furthermore, supplementation with vitamin C appears to be able to both prevent and treat respiratory and systemic infections. Prophylactic prevention of infection requires dietary vitamin C intakes that provide at least adequate, if not saturating plasma levels (i.e., 100-200 mg/day), which optimize cell and tissue levels. In contrast, treatment of established infections requires significantly higher (gram) doses of the vitamin to compensate for the increased inflammatory response and metabolic demand.

If everyone takes vitamin C then everyone will have a temporarily stronger immune system, be more resistant to infection, be able to better fight off infection and by virtue of less viral load and less time with the virus, spread the infection less granting herd immunity.
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #295 on: January 31, 2020, 11:06:09 AM »
Two coronavirus cases confirmed in UK

Two people have tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, the chief medical officer for England has announced.

They are both members of the same family and are receiving specialist NHS care.

No more details are being released about their identity or where they are being treated.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51325192
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #296 on: January 31, 2020, 11:24:14 AM »
The latest from my favorite doomer:

Exponential Growth Rate: The Number Of Confirmed Coronavirus Cases Is 236 Times Higher Than It Was 2 Weeks Ago
http://endoftheamericandream.com/archives/exponential-growth-rate-the-number-of-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-is-236-times-higher-than-it-was-2-weeks-ago
Quote
When push comes to shove, most people would be willing to do just about anything to stay alive.
And once people start dropping dead from this virus in major cities all over the nation, the desperation will be off the charts.
So let us pray that this pandemic is brought to an end somehow.When push comes to shove, most people would be willing to do just about anything to stay alive.
And once people start dropping dead from this virus in major cities all over the nation, the desperation will be off the charts.
So let us pray that this pandemic is brought to an end somehow.
Unfortunately, right now the number of cases continues to grow at an exponential rate, and the outlook for the months ahead is becoming increasingly grim.
Unfortunately, right now the number of cases continues to grow at an exponential rate, and the outlook for the months ahead is becoming increasingly grim.
and:
The True Number Of Coronavirus Victims Is Far Larger Than You Are Being Told
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-true-number-of-coronavirus-victims-is-far-larger-than-you-are-being-told
Quote
Ultimately, we really do not know how many coronavirus victims there are in China right now.  As I discussed yesterday, researchers at the University of Hong Kong are estimating that there could be 44,000 victims at this point, but they have no way of knowing for sure.
But what we do know is that this pandemic is getting worse with each passing day.  Even if you just look at the official numbers, they are growing at an exponential rate.  Mysterious pandemics are one element of “the perfect storm” that we have been anticipating, and it looks like this current pandemic is only going to intensify in the months ahead.
And the more this pandemic grows, the more fear we are going to see.  Large numbers of people are going to be desperately afraid of getting sick and dying, and that has the potential to paralyze our society to an extent that we have never seen before.

You know, I was going to stock up on nonperishable food (as much as I can) tomorrow, but I think I will do it today. I don't know when some news flash will cause panic buying. Johnny Carson once told a joke and the next day there was a nationwide toilet paper shortage.
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #297 on: January 31, 2020, 11:47:08 AM »
Judging by the graphs in the latest vox_mundi update, the quarantine had a positive effect. In a few days, we will know if it is contained. I think this will work.
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #298 on: January 31, 2020, 11:54:46 AM »
The number of hospital beds in the US is under a million. There were nearly a million hospitalized cases of flu in the 2017-'18 season.

In general, based on such stats and from what I hear from healthcare professionals, we're already stretched to the max, and any significant further pressure will overwhelm the system.

That is no doubt even more true of some other places around the world that are now seeing their first cases arrive on their shores.
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #299 on: January 31, 2020, 12:08:07 PM »
Based on reports from China, majority of urban population has stayed in their homes for about one week now. The only known infection hotspot, Wuhan, is quarantined. Because of 5-6 days incubation period and the fact infection can hardly spread anymore we should be very close to peak coronavirus.