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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 382790 times)

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #600 on: February 08, 2020, 03:59:22 PM »
China Threatens Harsh Punishments For People Who Disrupt Virus Control ... Including the Death Penalty
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/02/08/asia/coronavirus-deaths-china-intl-hnk/index.html

The Chinese government has issued new regulations to severely punish people who disrupt the epidemic control work. Those who violate the rules will be subject to speedy arrests and sentences, and even the death penalty.

In a joint statement released Saturday, China’s National Health Commission, Supreme Court, Supreme Procuratorate and Ministry of Public Security listed seven types of medical-related crimes.

Approval for arrest, prosecutions and trials will be fast-tracked as the epidemic prevention and control is at a "critical stage."

The statement ends by saying the death penalty will not be ruled out in severe cases.
  • - Beatings, intentional injuries, and intentional killing of medical personnel.
  • - Illegally restricting medical personnel's personal freedom using violence, threats, or blatantly insulting, intimidating, or slandering medical personnel.
  • - Tearing protective gears off of and spitting on medical personnel, which may cause medical personnel to be infected with the new coronavirus.
  • - Refusing to accept checks, quarantine, and treatment measures of medical and health institutions using violence, threats, or other methods, or obstructing medical and health institutions’ lawful disposal of corpses of infectious disease patients according to law.
  • - Forcibly or intentionally destroying or occupying properties of medical and health institutions, or causing disturbances in the medical and health institutions, illegally placing dead bodies, setting up the mourning hall without permission, causing disorder and disrupting the normal conduct of epidemic prevention and control.
  • - Illegally carrying guns, ammunition, tightly regulated instruments or explosive, radioactive, poisonous and corrosive materials while entering medical and health institutions.
  • - Other situations that violate the safety of medical personnel and disrupt medical order.
----------------------

One City’s Plan for Getting People to the Doctor: Ban Medicine.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/08/world/asia/coronavirus-china.html

Hangzhou, a Chinese city with a population of 10 million, said it would temporarily ban the sale of flu and cough medicine at pharmacies, in an effort to compel people who might be sick to see a doctor.

In a statement, which was issued at midnight Friday and took effect immediately, the local government said the policy was created to “strengthen the supervision of those with fevers and coughs.”

Several cities in the eastern province of Zhejiang, including some sections of Hangzhou, have set limits on how often people can leave their houses, generally allowing one person to leave every few days to buy groceries. Paper passports have been printed to keep tabs on residents.

As such restrictions have increased, so have people’s fears about being suspected to have the virus. Some have complained that hotels set up for quarantines do little to separate people who are already sick from those who have no symptoms, but who are from an area that experienced an outbreak. In recent weeks, several articles in Chinese news media have told of people who used medicine to suppress coronavirus symptoms to pass through the country’s now ubiquitous fever-screening checkpoints.

... “Going to the hospital for a regular cold?” wrote one skeptical user. “What if you go to the hospital and get infected?”

In a recent Lancet study, 41% of the patients' illness were acquired in the hospital.

----------------------

‘It Does Not Look Good’: Wuhan Doctors Press On In Dire Conditions After Whistle-blower’s Death
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049669/it-does-not-look-good-wuhan-doctors-soldier-dire-conditions

Another doctor says he was questioned by police for alerting colleagues to outbreak late last year

Medical personnel struggle to treat flood of patients with dwindling supplies of protective equipment

... “I think being called to a police station did affect my work. I felt pressure at work,” he was quoted as saying, adding that he had no regrets.

“I only did what a doctor should do. No one thought the situation would escalate so fast.

“Even though I am not a specialist, the situation does not look good.

“The coronavirus looks to be very dangerous.”
« Last Edit: February 08, 2020, 04:20:59 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #601 on: February 08, 2020, 04:05:06 PM »
Five Britons Infected With Coronavirus in France
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3049653/five-britons-infected-coronavirus-france

Five British nationals including a child have been diagnosed with the coronavirus in France, after staying in the same ski chalet and coming into contact with a person who had been in Singapore, Health Minister Agnes Buzyn said on Saturday.

The new cases included a child, Buzyn added. She said they were not in a serious condition. The total number of people infected with the virus in France has now reached 11.

Buzyn said the group of newly-infected people with the virus formed “a cluster, a grouping around one original case.”

“That original case was brought to our attention last night, it is a British national who had returned from Singapore where he had stayed between January 20 and 23, and he arrived in France on January 24 for four days,” Buzyn said, adding that the latest outbreak had occurred in the mountainous region of Savoie in eastern France.

----------------------

Diamond Princess Cruise Ship a Floating "Contaminated Prison," Passenger Says
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/02/07/asia/us-coronavirus-victim-cruise-ship-intl-hnk/index.html

CNN's Will Ripley spoke to some American passengers aboard the ship, one of whom is calling on the US government to intervene and get them out of what she called a "contaminated prison."

... "This is not a safe environment and we don’t think anybody, let alone the Japanese government, wants to be responsible for making a bad decision of quarantining us in an unsafe place," said Florida resident Gay Courter.

"We want off this ship and we want to go in health and not in dire medical circumstances."

"(My husband Philip and I) are 75 and 77 years old, we have health risks and we are a bad category to get sick ... We are not safe in our rooms," she said

Quote
... "I (just) do not want to go home in a box"

... Rebecca Frasure, an Oregon resident whose throat swab tested positive for the coronavirus, said she had no symptoms and was scared of the unknown.

After Rebecca was diagnosed, her husband said no one came to disinfect the room the couple shared. He believes it is only a matter of time before he is diagnosed with the virus, too. "(But) you roll with the punches and try to make the best of things as you can," he said.

Information from the cruise staff has been scant and he only found out that a further 41 passengers had been diagnosed with the virus after talking to a reporter, he said.

"The only way anybody knows (what is happening) is when people that are infected tell other people they've been infected," he said.

------------------------------

Hong Kong Civil Servants ‘Assigned’ Quarantine Duty Despite Assurances Involvement Is Voluntary
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3049665/coronavirus-hong-kong-civil-servants-assigned

Government staff say they are being drafted in for Hong Kong’s quarantine operation despite senior officials telling them involvement in the emergency response to the coronavirus outbreak is voluntary.

Hong Kong’s No 2 official earlier appealed to staff to help ‘if they are willing’

------------------------------

Singapore PM Says Coronavirus Spread Could Worsen But ‘There Is No Need To Panic’

Lee Hsien Loong sought to reassure Singaporeans who have gone on frenzied shopping sprees to stock up on essentials since the country raised its outbreak alert level

The government is well-prepared to tackle the crisis and will reconsider its strategy if the number of new cases keeps growing, he said

------------------------------

Plans?!; What Plans?!

As millions of Brazilians prepare to take to the streets for their country’s annual carnival, Brazil’s health minister has said his country currently has no specific plans for a coronavirus awareness campaign.

-------------------------
« Last Edit: February 08, 2020, 10:23:10 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #602 on: February 08, 2020, 04:24:47 PM »
That's pretty worrisom. A british tourist in Singapore infected even before the first lockdown. And than he stayed 4 days in France, and that's 10 days ago. https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3049653/five-britons-infected-coronavirus-france

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #603 on: February 08, 2020, 05:10:00 PM »


“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

be cause

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #604 on: February 08, 2020, 05:21:51 PM »
  je ne re Greta rien .. or some such .. perhaps this is what the beginning of the New  Jerusalem looks like .. meanwhile Ciara's vanguard seems wont to tear my world apart already . I shall go sing ! :)
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #605 on: February 08, 2020, 05:47:26 PM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

pietkuip

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #606 on: February 08, 2020, 06:23:54 PM »
On Cruise Ship Quarantined In Japan, Any New Cases Would Reset The Isolation Clock
https://www.npr.org/2020/02/07/803843303/on-cruise-ship-quarantined-in-japan-any-new-cases-would-reset-the-isolation-cloc

People who are quarantined aboard the Diamond Princess in Japan have been wondering how long their isolation would last. On Friday, a health official gave an answer they might not like: the quarantine will be extended every time a new case of the Wuhan coronavirus is confirmed on the ship.

Those cruise ships will provide excellent data. Perfect laboratories to study how this disease develops. The age distribution will be a bit skewed to pensioners, but they should be basically healthy. And there is a lot of younger staff, also in good health.

It is unfortunate for those on board, but in a month or so we will know what the death rate really is.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #607 on: February 08, 2020, 06:27:19 PM »
From Singapore ministry of health. 
https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/seven-more-confirmed-cases-of-novel-coronavirus-infection-in-singapore
Details on several clusters. Clusters also in France and Germany.


vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #608 on: February 08, 2020, 06:38:10 PM »
Coronavirus: China Mainly Interested in 'Safeguarding the Regime'
https://m.dw.com/en/coronavirus-china-mainly-interested-in-safeguarding-the-regime/a-52302326

Chinese historian Zhang Lifan told DW the epidemic exposes some critical flaws in China’s governance system, which he says "remains totalitarian and hierarchical," preventing the outbreak from being contained.

... In a way, this epidemic exposes another kind of virus in China, which is the "virus of bureaucracy." China's governance system remains totalitarian and hierarchical rather than modernized. That's why when Beijing has to deal with a large-scale epidemic, its governance style remains fragile.

The Chinese government's mishandling of the epidemic has a lot to do with its censorship. However, in order to maintain the stability of the regime, they have no bandwidth for actually containing the virus outbreak. The most important thing to the Chinese Communist Party is to safeguard its regime.

If we take a look at the people in charge of leading the efforts to contain the virus outbreak, it is obvious that none of them has any expertise in public health. This is an "amateur" team trying to give orders to a group of public health experts, and their real function is not to contain the virus, but to maintain social stability in China.

(... sounds a lot like the 'steaming pile' in the White House)

This is one of the most challenging moments in the Chinese Communist Party's 70-year history. The first major crisis it faced was the Great Chinese Famine during Mao Zedong's era, and the second major crisis was the Tiananmen Square Protest in 1989. Now we have this public health crisis.

Unlike the first two crises, the internet has allowed information about the epidemic to be shared very quickly and widely, which exacerbates the level of challenge that the Chinese government has to deal with. Even though Beijing tries to censor online discussion about the coronavirus epidemic, they still can't achieve a total blackout. Chinese people already know most of the facts about the epidemic. Even many Chinese officials probably know that they are lying about the epidemic.

However, this doesn't mean that a large-scale protest is in the making. From my observation, the Chinese government is monitoring society through tracking the development of the epidemic, and many methods of "maintaining stability" used in this epidemic could be applied to similar events in the future.

Additionally, most people in China are still afraid of dying from the coronavirus, so they would rather stay at home than taking it to the street at a time like this. The Chinese government is taking advantage of this and imposing strict control over road traffic and other aspects of people's everyday life. I think the Chinese government is using this epidemic to strengthen its control over society.

The Chinese government is used to sharing positive news and concealing negative news. When they can no longer hide the negative news, they try to find ways to turn negative news into positive news. This also happened during the early stages of the coronavirus epidemic.

They will likely try to contain the outbreak and at the same time, keep controlling society.

Once they can secure the regime, they will start framing the epidemic as a reflection of the superiority of socialism. I think this is the likely outcome.

-----------------------------

Xi Jinping Security Protégé to Bolster China’s Coronavirus Task Force
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3049671/xi-jinping-security-protege-bolster-chinas-coronavirus-task

Former Wuhan Communist Party chief Chen Yixin could play role in maintaining social stability, observer says

Tensions mount in aftermath of death of Wuhan doctor Li Wenliang
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

etienne

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #609 on: February 08, 2020, 08:56:04 PM »
Kids are going one week skiing end of March with the school. I met one of the teachers this morning and asked if the coronavirus would not be an issue. He told me that I shouldn't worry about that because the Europeans health systems are much better than what they have in China. 

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #610 on: February 08, 2020, 09:39:28 PM »
If we can’t trust the Chinese statistics, what do the other nations statistics say about the growth rate of cases?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #611 on: February 08, 2020, 09:55:32 PM »
Quote
If we can’t trust the Chinese statistics, what do the other nations statistics say about the growth rate of cases?
I would be far more worried about the reliability of statistics from some very populous country's .
India and Indonesia both have strong trade and tourism links to China , neither is showing the number of infections we should expect.
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #612 on: February 08, 2020, 10:23:15 PM »
Quote
If we can’t trust the Chinese statistics, what do the other nations statistics say about the growth rate of cases?
I would be far more worried about the reliability of statistics from some very populous country's .
India and Indonesia both have strong trade and tourism links to China , neither is showing the number of infections we should expect.

Reliability of statistics may not matter that much if the health care system is not able to cope with identifying/testing/containing/quarantining ...

Reliably reporting zero confirmed cases is not much use if there are lots of infections.

More useful to know if clusters of cases that are now seemingly inevitable can be contained by tracking contacts, monitoring and quarantining where necessary.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #613 on: February 08, 2020, 10:59:32 PM »
Kids are going one week skiing end of March with the school. I met one of the teachers this morning and asked if the coronavirus would not be an issue. He told me that I shouldn't worry about that because the Europeans health systems are much better than what they have in China. 

This attitude could be called "whistling past the graveyard."  Today's news of a cluster of cases at an upscale ski chalet is illustrative.

A "better health system" mostly refers to how well people are cared for when they become sick.  That's nearly irrelevant for epidemic control.  The behavior of individuals *before* they become sick enough to need treatment is crucial.  China is able to enact almost draconian quarantine and travel controls at will, with excellent compliance.  That's disturbing from a human rights perspective, but constitutes strong public health from an infection control perspective.  I doubt any other nation on earth could be as effective and brutally efficient at this. 

I do think these strong measures have slowed the spread of the epidemic.  I think it can't possibly halt the spread.  Spread into nations with an abject inability to impose strong public health measures may fuel the next phase of acceleration.

The contagiousness and significant lethality of this virus are roughly comparable to the 1918 influenza pandemic.  Similarly to that episode, there is currently no available vaccine or antiviral treatment.  Unlike that episode, we have a good diagnostic test, though test availability is still terribly limited.

Also unlike 1918 pandemic, we have prospects of finding effective anti-viral treatment in a matter of perhaps weeks.  But actually making a new medication available around the world to all who become sick will takes many months of dedicated, funded, herculean efforts.  Wealthy nations and individuals will, of course, be first in line.

1918 Spanish Flu historical documentary | Swine Flu Pandemic

Bruce Steele

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #614 on: February 08, 2020, 11:37:38 PM »
SteveMD, This story goes in the “ no good deed goes unpunished “ category. Gilead , the company that invented remdesivir , may end up in a patent fight with Chinese drug manufactures.
 https://sfist.com/2020/02/06/bay-area-based-gilead-donates-experimental-anti-viral-drug-to-china/
« Last Edit: February 09, 2020, 12:12:25 AM by Bruce Steele »

SteveMDFP

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #615 on: February 08, 2020, 11:51:01 PM »
SteveMD, This story goes in the “ no good deed goes unpunished “ category. Gilead , the company the invented remdesivir , may end up in a patent fight with Chinese drug manufactures.
 https://sfist.com/2020/02/06/bay-area-based-gilead-donates-experimental-anti-viral-drug-to-china/

I'll shed no tears for Gilead's loss of profits.  The people of China desperately need effective treatments.  If China can do that without forking over unimaginable wealth to a corporation, I cheer them on.

But Gilead's claim will have enforceable power in the US and most of the rest of the world.  The implications for poor people and nations and the uninsured are disturbing.

I suspect a range of effective antivirals will be developed.  Quite possibly, ones already marketed now.  A few, perhaps, with patents already expired.  We can only hope.

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #616 on: February 09, 2020, 12:07:08 AM »
More data available in about an hour or so.
https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia?from=groupmessage&isappinstalled=0

截至 2020-02-08 07:15 全国数据统计
数据说明

较昨日变化数据:待国家卫健委数据公布中,预计 08:00 左右更新。

34,673 确诊
27,657 疑似
  6,101 重症
    724 死亡
 2,375 治愈

As of 2020-02-08 07:15 National Statistics
Data description

More than yesterday's change data: to be released by the National Health and Reform Commission data, is expected to update around 08:00.

34,673 Confirmed
27,657 Suspected
  6,101 Critical
    724 Deaths
 2,375 Recovered

Johns Hopkins
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

34,963 Confirmed
    725 Dead
 2,394 Recovered

Sam

bluice

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #617 on: February 09, 2020, 12:16:54 AM »
Once again mortality at 2.1%

These figures from China are complete BS

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #618 on: February 09, 2020, 12:21:10 AM »
SteveMD, This story goes in the “ no good deed goes unpunished “ category. Gilead , the company the invented remdesivir , may end up in a patent fight with Chinese drug manufactures.
 https://sfist.com/2020/02/06/bay-area-based-gilead-donates-experimental-anti-viral-drug-to-china/

I'll shed no tears for Gilead's loss of profits.  The people of China desperately need effective treatments.  If China can do that without forking over unimaginable wealth to a corporation, I cheer them on.

But Gilead's claim will have enforceable power in the US and most of the rest of the world.  The implications for poor people and nations and the uninsured are disturbing.

I suspect a range of effective antivirals will be developed.  Quite possibly, ones already marketed now.  A few, perhaps, with patents already expired.  We can only hope.

As I noted yesterday, there are several treatments that have been reported to be successful.

We now have indications of several treatments that seem to either be effective or that help.

Key among these are:
1) Oseltamivir combined with HIV drugs Lopinavir and Ritonavir ((Singapore report))
2) Remdesivir ((Chinese report))
3) Galidesivir (? speculative ?)
4) Herbal combinations of extracts of Forsythia, Scute, and Lonicera ((Chinese report))
5) Others...

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/characterstics-of-nCoV-patients-Wuhan-Lancet-1-29-2020.pdf

Etc...

Also in addition to yesterday, we are now hearing a lot of other thoughts and inputs about the virus and its impacts. The business community and politicians, economists and the like have awoken to the immense disruption to supply and economies. Some of these clearly have their priorities entirely wrong. They focus not on the impact on human health and the welfare of those impacted, but on the financial and business implications. For people who think in this way, human impacts are important in the abstract - only in so far as those impact business, commerce and money - which is their central organizing principle. They see business and commerce as allowing human health, and threats to that then impact health. While that is true, it winds the problem backward.

And when it comes then to solutions, people thinking in this way will inexorably argue first for minimizing impacts on business, commerce and wealth, and deprecate impacts to individuals health. To my mind that is purely evil. It is also destined to fail and fail miserably in protecting both individuals, the large body of society, and business, commerce and wealth. By winding the problem the wrong way, the solutions proposed will exacerbate the spread of disease magnifying the catastrophe, rather than working to solve it.

The problem with pharmaceuticals is similar. In a catastrophe, broad access to the tools required to solve it must not be impeded by greed. The regular rules must be supplanted. National declarations of emergency and sovereignty as well as protection of individuals lives call for the nationalization of the rights to the properties in question, and the companies too if necessary. Seeing this, the companies should act accordingly and chose to wave all but minimal cash returns on the production of these critically important substances. Should they fail to do so, I am of the belief that nations should act swiftly to nationalize them.

Likewise, nation to nation, there should be minimal barriers in the transfer of the materials and rights to produce them. In a pandemic we are all at risk. We must act together for all our sakes.

Sam

Grubbegrabben

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #619 on: February 09, 2020, 12:34:55 AM »
Russian TV is spreading conspiracy theories about the corona virus on prime time news programmes.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51413870


Grubbegrabben

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #620 on: February 09, 2020, 12:48:56 AM »
Once again mortality at 2.1%

These figures from China are complete BS

I think it's quite obvious that basic hospital care (for example treatment with added oxygen) means life instead of death for many severely/critically ill patients. The Hubei province, especially Wuhan City, didn't have hospital capacity to meet demands as the outbreak gained momentum. With the recently added hospital capacity, as well as increased understanding how to treat patients, I expect the death rate to drop quickly. There are 10 000 cases outside of Hubei but only 26 deaths (0,2%).


edmountain

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #621 on: February 09, 2020, 01:09:08 AM »
The contagiousness and significant lethality of this virus are roughly comparable to the 1918 influenza pandemic.  Similarly to that episode, there is currently no available vaccine or antiviral treatment.  Unlike that episode, we have a good diagnostic test, though test availability is still terribly limited.

Also unlike 1918 pandemic, we have prospects of finding effective anti-viral treatment in a matter of perhaps weeks.  But actually making a new medication available around the world to all who become sick will takes many months of dedicated, funded, herculean efforts.  Wealthy nations and individuals will, of course, be first in line.
One interesting thing about the 1918 influenza epidemic was a disproportionate number of deaths among seemingly-healthy 20-40 year-old individuals; the mortality curve was W-shaped rather than U-shaped. These deaths accounted for the majority of "excess" influenza deaths over the course the pandemic (source).

Thus far it seems as if the Wuhan coronavirus is not following this 1918 influenza pattern: the most severely ill and the most fatalities seem to be older or comorbid individuals. See, for example, this case series of 138 hospitalized patients recently published in JAMA.

Also unlike 1918 pandemic, we have prospects of finding effective anti-viral treatment in a matter of perhaps weeks.  But actually making a new medication available around the world to all who become sick will takes many months of dedicated, funded, herculean efforts.  Wealthy nations and individuals will, of course, be first in line.
Another interesting thing about the 1918 influenza pandemic was that a large part of excess influenza deaths were caused secondary bacterial pneumonias (source, and references therein) for which no effective treatment, i.e. antibacterials, existed in 1918. If secondary bacterial pneumonias comprise an important complication of the current infection then antibacterials may be of benefit. This is of course a big if but it's notable that most of the patients in the JAMA case series above received antibacterials. Obviously antibacterials have no role in treating the primary infection

What this means exactly for the future transmission of the Wuhan virus remains to be seen. As you suggest, there are many reasons to believe that the current outbreak will not automatically be a repeat of 1918.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #622 on: February 09, 2020, 01:17:30 AM »
So far, India is saying that all these cases are negative (except for 3 positives). I don't know ...

Suspected Cases Crop up Across India with Flu-like Symptoms
https://weather.com/en-IN/india/news/news/2020-02-06-hundreds-of-coronavirus-suspected-cases-crop-up-across-india

... Amidst the situation in China, several Indian states have admitted people in hospitals and are keeping many under observation for suspected symptoms of coronavirus. Till now, India has reported three confirmed cases of coronavirus from Kerala. According to the Ministry of Health, a total of 5,123 are monitored under home surveillance.

In Karnataka, about 83 people with the symptoms of coronavirus are kept under home isolation observation. The Karnataka Health and Family Welfare Services department is observing patients in Bengaluru, Tumkur and Mysuru. The officials claim that, as of now, no positive cases of coronavirus are reported from the state.

As a precautionary measure, the government has imposed surveillance in Karnataka districts bordering Kerala including Kodagu, Mangaluru, Chamarajanagar, and Mysuru. Moreover, Kempegowda International Airport (KIA) has conducted thermal screening for coronavirus on 10,184 passengers from January 20 till Wednesday.

About 22 suspects of coronavirus symptoms have been reported from Punjab. Other places where people are being examined for the symptoms of coronavirus are Hyderabad, Odisha, Delhi, and Manesar.

... So, how prepared is India to handle the coronavirus in case the numbers spike?

Considering there is no vaccine or trial-proven drug therapy yet, aff­ected patients are being treated symptomatically based on clinical severity. "Serious cases who have viral pneumonia will need supportive intensive care, including mechanical ventilation when required. Hospitals in large cities can provide this, if the numbers are not overwhelming. Small towns and rural areas in most states will be ill-equipped if the virus spreads further," says Dr K. Srinath Reddy, president, Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI).

... A comprehensive nationwide surveillance system is still a work in progress.

https://www.indiatoday.in/amp/magazine/the-big-story/story/20200217-the-dark-corona-1643707-2020-02-07

--------------------------------

'We're Definitely Not Prepared': Africa Braces for New Virus
https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/02/08/world/africa/ap-af-africa-virus-fears.html

LUSAKA, Zambia — At a Chinese-run hospital in Zambia, some employees watched as people who recently returned from China showed up with coughs but were not placed in isolation. A doctor tending to those patients has stopped coming to work, and health workers have been ordered not to speak publicly about the new virus that has killed hundreds around the world.

The virus that has spread through much of China has yet to be confirmed in Africa, but global health authorities are increasingly worried about the threat to the continent where an estimated 1 million Chinese now live, as some health workers on the ground warn they are not ready to handle an outbreak.

... “The problem is, even if it’s mild, it can paralyze the whole community,” said Dr. Michel Yao, emergency operations manager in Africa for the World Health Organization.

Those growing worried include employees at the Sino-Zambia Friendship Hospital in the mining city of Kitwe in northern Zambia, near the Congo border. Chinese companies operate mines on the outskirts of the city of more than half a million people. One company is headquartered in Wuhan, the city at the center of the virus outbreak. Hundreds of workers traveled between Zambia and China in recent weeks.

"We're definitely not prepared. If we had a couple of cases, it would spread very quickly,” physiotherapist Fundi Sinkala said. “We're doing the best we can with what resources we have.”


The Sino-Zambia Friendship Hospital, or Sinozam, a low-slung facility near the city's train station, has taken some precautions, including checking patient temperatures with infrared thermometers and establishing isolation areas. Employees wear masks. Gloves, disinfectant and oxygen inhalers have been stockpiled. Sinozam treats many Chinese in Kitwe and its precautions go further than other hospitals in the area.

But the employees and others familiar with the matter, some of whom spoke anonymously under the new rules, say some Chinese patients checked in with coughs and fevers but did not get placed in isolation.

Visiting Zambian health officials concluded the patients did not merit special treatment and did not take samples to test for the virus. After the people recovered, they were sent home with antibiotics, employees said.


On Wednesday, the hospital set up a new fever clinic, to which here people arriving with a high temperature are now ushered to right away. It's “unfortunate” the ward wasn't set up earlier, Sinkala said.

Two people familiar with the matter say a doctor tending to the sick has fallen ill. Dr. Yu Jianlan has not come to work in the past week and hospital administrators have not explained her absence, Sinkala said. The other person spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of retribution.

Hospital administrator Li Zhibing said there were no patients with a fever and said Yu had a urinary tract infection, not a fever. But a notice posted by the Zambia-China Cooperation Zone, which manages the hospital, quoted an employee as saying on Jan. 27 that the facility “probably sees 120 fever patients a day, and at least 70 of them are carrying germs” of various diseases.

Earlier this week, a Zambian official acknowledged for the first time that his country was following up on an unspecified number of suspected cases. Zambia is one of 13 African countries identified by WHO as a high priority because of busy travel links with China.

... Crucially, no one in Zambia has been able to test for the virus so far. Like most African countries, it has been waiting for a substance known as a reagent, which labs require to confirm whether a patient is infected. Labs in just six of Africa’s 54 countries were equipped as of mid-week. That means a wait of two or more days to know whether a sample shipped to South Africa or even outside the continent tests positive.

Without testing, officials are “just relying on the symptoms" and whether they persist. “But from what we are learning right now, some people show hardly any symptoms at all,” Sinkala said, calling that the hospital's biggest worry.

Adding to the difficulties in diagnosing the new virus are numerous diseases in Africa with symptoms that include fever or coughing or both.

... Concerns are high among some in Kitwe. A local pharmacy manager, Edward Goma, estimated that his business had sold more than 800 face masks in the past few days.

“So far everyone is scared,” he said. And yet he has not noticed the stricter surveillance measures seen in other countries, beyond temperature checks at the international airport an hour’s drive away.

... The 15th Metallurgical Construction Group, based in Wuhan, said on its website that its overseas operations in Zambia and Congo must purchase masks, disinfect living quarters and workspaces daily and check workers' temperatures three times a day.

--------------------------------

China's Coronavirus-hit Hubei Says Medical Supply Tightness Easing, Shortages Persist
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-hubei-idUSKBN2020MF

BEIJING (Reuters) - The vice governor of China’s Hubei province, Cao Guangjing, speaking at an evening news conference in provincial capital Wuhan, where the outbreak originated, said Hubei’s major producers of protective gear - such as masks and protective suits – had all returned to work as of Feb. 7 but some smaller plants had still not fully resumed production.

“The shortage still exists,” but may end if there is a turning point in the crisis, Cao said. “If the numbers keep rising, the tightness will continue and may increase.”

Earlier on Friday, Chinese Vice Premier Sun Chunlan, the country’s most senior official on the ground in Hubei, visited the newly opened Leishenshan hospital in Wuhan, one of several makeshift facilities set up for people infected with the coronavirus.

“Time is life,” state broadcaster CCTV cited Sun as saying, adding that she had called for the bed turnover rate to be speeded up. (... triage?)

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“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #623 on: February 09, 2020, 01:25:52 AM »
Hunt for Coronavirus Victims As Trail Leads From Singapore To UK and France
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/08/hunt-for-coronavirus-victims-as-trail-leads-from-singapore-to-uk-and-france

An international manhunt is under way to trace more than 100 people who were at a business conference in Singapore where the British national who infected five others at a French ski resort is believed to have contracted the coronavirus.

The conference at the Grand Hyatt hotel in Singapore, held earlier in January, is believed to have been attended by 15 people from Singapore and 94 foreigners, and hosted by a multinational company. The Singaporean evening daily paper Lianhe Wanbao named the company as UK firm Servomex, a global gas analysis company with offices in Europe and Asia.

Malaysian health authorities first revealed the virus’s link to the conference when they confirmed the case of a 41-year-old Malaysian who had attended it alongside colleagues from China, according to the New Straits Times.

South Korea has confirmed that two of its nationals who attended the conference also have the virus. The Koreans and the Malaysian shared a buffet meal during the conference, South Korean media reported. Of the 15 Singaporean attendees, four have been referred to its National Centre for Infectious Diseases, the country’s health ministry confirmed.

... The Brighton man told UK authorities he had visited a chalet in Contamines-Montjoie, prompting French officials to take the 11 Britons who had been staying there to hospitals in Lyon, Saint-Étienne and Grenoble on Friday night.

French authorities said the chalet had two apartments where two families had been staying. A British couple and their three children, who have reportedly lived in Contamines-Montjoie for three years and are now resident in France, live in one. The mother is in the UK, studying for exams, and has been contacted.

The three British children under examination in hospital in France – including a nine-year-old who has tested positive for the virus along with his father – attended a school in the resort, its mayor, Etienne Jacquet, told BFM TV.

He said the two schools would be shut this week as the authorities investigated who they had been in contact with.


Quote
... The mayor of nearby resort Saint-Gervais, Jean-Marc Peillex, played down the risk to children at the local school, which has 200 pupils. He said the nine-year old boy had spent “half a day there with five pupils”.

Seven tourists were staying in the other apartment. All the Britons staying in the apartments were taken to hospital. Agnes Buzyn, France’s health minister, said none was in a serious condition.

-------------------------

Singapore Cases Jump (10:20 a.m. NY)

Singapore reported seven additional confirmed cases, bringing its total to 40. Four victims are in critical condition, and one is on oxygen support, the government said late Saturday. All the new cases are Singapore citizens or permanent residents, and none had traveled to China recently

----------------------------

Grab Suspends Singapore Carpooling (10:50 a.m. NY)

Grab Holdings Inc., which runs Singapore’s biggest ride-hailing app, said it will temporarily suspend its GrabShare carpooling services starting Sunday as the number of coronavirus cases in the city reached 40.

Singapore raised its national disease response level to Orange, its second-highest level and the same one used during the SARS epidemic almost two decades ago.

---------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #624 on: February 09, 2020, 01:34:51 AM »
Once again mortality at 2.1%

These figures from China are complete BS

bluice,

I cannot say anything one way or the other about the validity or invalidity of the Chinese data. I simply have no basis to do so.

The ratios day to day aren't precisely 2.1%. They are close. However, with exponential growth curves this is not at all surprising.

There is some mean/average time from infection to presentation of symptoms, and from symptoms to hospitalization, from hospitalization to confirmation of infection, and for those who succumb, from confirmation to death. 

The best estimates so far are that the time from infection to confirmed status is about 7 days. The replication or generation time seems to be about 5.9 days. The time from confirmed status to death averages about 6 days.

The growth rate from various estimates has ranged from 1.62 fold increase per day down to 1.20 fold increase. Commonly encountered values are 1.32 fold and 1.42 fold. From these, you can easily calculate the "gamma" value used in the models by taking the natural logarithm (log base e) of these numbers. Conversely, you can convert reported gamma values to daily growth factors by taking the exponent of the values - also base e.

If for example we take the current daily growth factor as being 1.32 and the mean time from confirmed status to death, we would expect the value of the ratio of the number dying each day to the number confirmed each day to be about equal to the inverse of 1.32^6 times the case fatality rate. 1/(1.32^6) equals 0.189.  If as we seem to be seeing, the mean death rate is 10-12% of those infected and reporting to hospital, then we would expect the ratio of daily deaths to daily confirmations to be about 0.019 to 0.023 (1.9%-2.3%). If the CFR is 11%, the ratio would be ~2.1%

This does not then mean that the CFR is 11%. It is likely somewhere between 9-16% for those who report to the hospital. And again, that is predominantly older males (age 55+). That unfortunately tells us nothing about the CFR for people who do not report to the hospital, or about what portion of the population does go to hospital or not.

There is broad uncertainty in all of these parameters.

If as we have so far seen, the disease predominantly strikes those over 55, and we assume that only those over 55 go to hospital, then using the age distribution of the population we could work backward to estimate the case fatality rate based on the whole population. However, that is misleading, as the case fatality rate doesn't apply to the whole population, except for planning purposes for cremation .... It applies instead to older males. The CFR for those under 55 is much lower, and for infants and young adults it seems to be near zero.

If the CFR (for those hospitalized) is actually 10%, then we can reverse the estimates (based on slope data) of the daily growth rates (or their natural logs - the gammas) to estimate the mean time from confirmed status to death. Other combinations of gamma (or daily factor), mean time from confirmed status to death and case fatality rate can result in the same ratio. However - we do expect their to be a ratio. And that ratio should change based on changes in the growth rate caused by things like the quarantine.

The quarantine should also then change the R0 and R values too corresponding to the changes in the daily rate, as the mean time from confirmed status to death should not change, other than through random variation.

In general, we have seen from the beginning a near constant ratio of 43-47 between the number of people confirmed to have the virus each day to those dying each day. And this is expected from an exponential growth pattern.

The inverse of 43-47 is expressed as percent - 2.1% to 2.3%.

If as some other estimates suggest, the daily growth rate is ~1.60, AND the case fatality rate is ~10%, then we can estimate the mean time from conversion to confirmed status to death as being about 4.5 days. The data from hospitals suggests that it is closer to 5.9-6.0 days.

So if instead we use the 1.60 slope and the 5.9 day period, it suggests a CFR of about 13%.

None of this indicates that anyone is hiding anything, or that they are making up data. Instead, it tells us some things about the dynamics of the growth curve for the virus in the population. Within reasonable bounds, the growth rate is 1.20 - 1.62 per day. The duration from confirmed status to death is 4.5-7 days. The fatality rate for those hospitalized is likely somewhere between 9%-16%. The combination of these factors results in a ratio of daily confirmed positive to daily deceased of about 42-47. The precise or accurate values for each of the parameters is the combination that results in that range.

Sam
« Last Edit: February 09, 2020, 06:11:07 AM by Sam »

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #625 on: February 09, 2020, 01:43:36 AM »
Please note too...

If the data is as it appears to be ... and it might well not be ...

Then ... One strategy for this disease might center around protecting those over age 50 from any exposure at all, while letting the virus run its course through the younger population.

One of the problems with such a strategy is how to ensure that the virus does run its course and then dies out completely, rather than becoming endemic.

Another problem is that the virus is not going to behave. It will mutate. And that may well set in place an ongoing recurrent infection that cycles through the population.

The net result of either or both of those is that the strategy fails. The older population then is heavily impacted and ~10% of them die.

This type of thinking is all too easy to fall in to, and then to not be fully thought out. And that is why I mention it.

For whatever strategies are actually employed, it is essential to think them through from beginning to end, and to recognize reality in the process.

In Africa for example (this applies as well to any poor community anywhere - it isn't about race), lacking access to testing and treatment, the disease is likely to run rampant and unchecked through the population if it ever arrives there.

That being the case, it is particularly important to assure that the disease never makes it to areas with large poor populations. If it does, these will act as reservoirs that will infect every other population.

By this I absolutely do not mean that we should view the poor populations as lesser or expandable, or of less value. They absolutely aren't. What I do mean to show is that people who are from wealthier populations should recognize that it is absolutely in their own self interest to care for the welfare of everyone, and that using economics as a basis for decision making in this regard is doomed to utter failure. We are all of us in this together.

Sam

« Last Edit: February 09, 2020, 02:17:05 AM by Sam »

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #626 on: February 09, 2020, 01:50:27 AM »
As promised:

截至 2020-02-08 16:39 全国数据统计
数据说明

37,251 确诊 +2,657 较昨日
28,942 疑似 +3,916 较昨日
  6,188 重症 +     87 较昨日
     812 死亡 +     89 较昨日
  2,651 治愈 +   600 较昨日

As of 2020-02-08 16:39 National Statistics
the data shows

37,251 Confirmed +2,657 compared to yesterday
28,942 Suspected +3,916 compared to yesterday
  6,188 Severe      +    87 compared to yesterday
     812 Deaths      +    89 compared to yesterday
  2,651 Recovered +   600 compared to yesterday

Johns Hopkins
37,153 Confirmed
     807 Deaths
  2,617 Recovered

Also - from the previous discussion:
If we use this data. The Confirmed ratio to the Confirmed ratio less the reported growth suggest a daily growth factor of about 1.16. The daily Death to daily Confirmed ratio is 3.3%. If the time from confirmed status to death remains about 5.9 days, this suggests a case fatality rate of 12.4%.

That seems reasonable. Natural randomness and variation are likely at play. Accordingly, the data should be taken tentatively. Estimates for short periods of data need to be used with great caution.

If however, the 1.16 ratio is correct, that is down considerably from the early estimates of 1.42 - 1.62. And that also means a rather tremendous slowing in the rate of spread of the disease. Because the ratio is over unity, the disease is still spreading and the spread is not yet controlled, despite the herculean (and perhaps draconian) efforts that China has made so far. More is required if the disease is to be stopped.

This is also a cautionary tale for every other country. Do NOT allow this disease to enter your country. It is likely that no other country could take the control efforts that China has. And what that means is rapid spread globally if every other country is not successful at stopping the relative handful of cases that have made it to their shores.

Addenda... see Edmountain's comment and my reply later in this chain. This calculation is overly simplistic (as I cautioned at the start). I noted the other day that it appeared that perhaps the effects of the quarantine were beginning to show. In the above I neglected that. And that is crucial. During the exponential growth phase some fairly crude assumptions apply about the relative importance of older data. Once the growth phase is ended, this assumptions are invalid. I appear to have missed that conversion out of the growth phase. Always use caution in evaluating calculations like these.

The central question I was attempting to address remains valid - that it is not surprising that we see a nearly constant ratio (at least for the moment) between the confirmed count and the death count. When we shift to looking at the daily change in those numbers and their ratio, we should and do begin to see a shift. Thank you Edmountain for your comment. Question everything - always. It is only then we might hope to get closer to truth.

Sam
« Last Edit: February 09, 2020, 09:24:01 PM by Sam »

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #627 on: February 09, 2020, 01:54:52 AM »
Came across a rumor that China will execute 20,000 people to stop this epidemic.
I am surprised Fake News has gotten so extreme so fast.
Also, how good are those instant hospitals? Pictures I saw are just huge arrays of cots.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #628 on: February 09, 2020, 02:05:21 AM »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #629 on: February 09, 2020, 03:45:53 AM »
As Coronavirus Spreads, China’s Military Is Largely MIA
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/02/coronavirus-spreads-chinas-military-has-been-largely-mia/162950/

At a moment when hospitals across China are posting cries for supplies on social media, the anemic response by the People’s Liberation Army calls into question some of its most lauded capabilities: powerful logistics and mass military-civil contingency response mobilization.

The PLA’s relative lack of response is even more puzzling given that Wuhan is home to major military units that should be capable of deploying to a contingency. These include the Joint Logistics Support Base [联合保障中心], notionally the center of the PLA Logistic Support Force’s network of warehouses and stockpiles). According to China’s 2019 defense white paper, the PLA Joint Logistic Support Force “comprises the support forces for inventory and warehousing, medical services, transport, force projection, oil pipelines, engineering and construction management, reserve assets management, and procurement.”

The timing was also noteworthy. Despite the base in Wuhan, and theoretically at least, a streamlined ability to flow units into and out of the province, the PLA Logistics Support Force only established a “response and coordination mechanism” on Jan. 26th, almost a month after the virus began to spread and 15 days after it was officially acknowledged. Even then, official reporting on this “mechanism” describes it as offering communications and funding capabilities, rather than distributing stockpiles, delivering aid, or mobilization of hospitals under its management.

In the week that followed, OSINT found that the military role picked up, but remained limited: ...

The other military services also appear to be largely absent. In recent years, China has produced significant numbers of strategic Y-20 transport aircraft, bragging about the leap forward they offer to China’s ability to deploy at home and abroad, yet these have so far been notably absent from relief efforts. So too, the PLA has also signed strategic agreements with China’s largest transport and delivery services to allow them rapid access in a crisis. For example, the PLA’s largest-ever logistics exercise, held in December 2018, featured mass use of these companies’ planes and trucks. So far, none of these agreements appear to be in effect as part of the coronavirus response.

... More alarming is the fact that the Hubei Provincial Health Committee simulated the breakout of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in April in preparation for the 2019 World Military Games in Wuhan. The city should have had contingency plans ready, or at the very least been better situated to respond. But it seems clear that Wuhan city officials and the Hubei provincial government were not able to coordinate a contingency response with PLA or other units, indicating a breakdown of communications channels or that the mechanisms in place were ineffective.



------------------------------

China’s Military Put To the Crisis Test In Coronavirus Call-Up
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3049672/chinas-military-put-crisis-test-coronavirus-call

.“The development of China’s medical and health system has failed to match the country’s rapid economic reforms to serve the people,”

The coronavirus crisis has prompted one of the Chinese military’s biggest mobilisations of medical personnel in decades, putting its crisis management skills to the test.


Many of the personnel were reportedly part of the responses to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) outbreak in 2003 and the 2008 Sichuan earthquake, among other crises.

Over 3,000 PLA medical staff had been sent to Wuhan to operate two temporary coronavirus hospitals, which together had a capacity for 2,500 people.

But even that deployment was not enough.

“There is a shortage of medical staff at the two hospitals, so the PLA is recalling more veterans with medical knowledge and disaster relief experience to active duty,” the source said.

Among those being drafted into the mission are those with experience combating Ebola in Africa, according to The PLA Daily.

... The system calls for veterans to be ready to return to active duty at any time and local governments should work with the military to roll out a series of measures to prevent further infection.

... The outbreak comes just months after Hubei organised an epidemic readiness drill as part of preparations to host the 2019 Military World Games in Wuhan.

Quote
“The outbreak of the novel coronavirus and the inefficient operation of Hubei government indicate that the crisis management drill was just a show, and now the whole country and the PLA have to clean up the mess,”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #630 on: February 09, 2020, 03:49:29 AM »
Health Experts Issued an Ominous Warning About a Coronavirus Pandemic 3 Months Ago. The Virus In Their Simulation Killed 65 Million People.
https://amp.businessinsider.com/scientist-simulated-coronavirus-pandemic-deaths-2020-1

A scientist at Johns Hopkins last year modeled what would happen if a fictional coronavirus reached a pandemic scale. In his simulated scenario, 65 million people died within 18 months.

... Toner's simulated pandemic also triggered a global financial crisis: Stock markets fell by 20% to 40%, and global gross domestic product plunged by 11%.

"The point that we tried to make in our exercise back in October is that it isn't just about the health consequences," Toner said. "It's about the consequences on economies and societies."

------------------------------

The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY. The exercise illustrated areas where public/private partnerships will be necessary during the response to a severe pandemic in order to diminish large-scale economic and societal consequences.

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/

Highlights



Segment 1 - Intro and Medical Countermeasures (MCM) Discussion



Segment 2 - Trade & Travel Discussion



Segment 3 - Finance Discussion



Segment 4 - Communications Discussion and Epilogue Video



Scenario:  http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/scenario.html

The disease starts in pig farms in Brazil, quietly and slowly at first, but then it starts to spread more rapidly in healthcare settings. When it starts to spread efficiently from person to person in the low-income, densely packed neighborhoods of some of the megacities in South America, the epidemic explodes. It is first exported by air travel to Portugal, the United States, and China and then to many other countries. Although at first some countries are able to control it, it continues to spread and be reintroduced, and eventually no country can maintain control.

There is no possibility of a vaccine being available in the first year. There is a fictional antiviral drug that can help the sick but not significantly limit spread of the disease.

Since the whole human population is susceptible, during the initial months of the pandemic, the cumulative number of cases increases exponentially, doubling every week. And as the cases and deaths accumulate, the economic and societal consequences become increasingly severe.

The scenario ends at the 18-month point, with 65 million deaths. The pandemic is beginning to slow due to the decreasing number of susceptible people. The pandemic will continue at some rate until there is an effective vaccine or until 80-90 % of the global population has been exposed. From that point on, it is likely to be an endemic childhood disease.

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/resources
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

TerryM

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #631 on: February 09, 2020, 05:59:20 AM »
Thanks to all for the updates, and especially to Sam for the math.


I read the wiki for SARS. In Toronto a single person was responsible for an infection that sickened over 250 people. That scary epidemic that is dwarfed by what we're now facing.


At another site I read that the coronavirus is viable for 9 days on a door knob or hand rail, much longer than SARS (or the common cold). This and the possibility of infecting others for 14 days while no symptoms are apparent will make this damn near impossible to contain.


I'm hugely appreciative of the massive Chinese efforts, but all they can buy us is a small head start.


Stay Healthy
Terry


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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #632 on: February 09, 2020, 06:23:31 AM »
Quote
... Toner's simulated pandemic also triggered a global financial crisis: Stock markets fell by 20% to 40%, and global gross domestic product plunged by 11%.

"The point that we tried to make in our exercise back in October is that it isn't just about the health consequences," Toner said. "It's about the consequences on economies and societies."
But but but.
The White Orange House told us there would be no impact on the worlds economy.

 
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #633 on: February 09, 2020, 07:20:53 AM »
Singapore’s Central Bank Calls On Financial Firms To Be Prepared For Increased Demand
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/09/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-death-toll.html

Singapore’s central bank has called on financial institutions to “be prepared to manage any increase in demand for certain financial services, such as cash withdrawal or online financial services,” as a result of the virus outbreak.

-------------------------------

Gaming Giant Tencent Asks Staff to Stay Home for Another Week

Chinese tech giant Tencent has asked its employees to working from home for another week, extending the return date to from Feb. 14 to Feb. 21.

The move is aimed at protecting employees from the spread of the virus, the gaming company said on the official account of its popular messaging app, WeChat.

----------------------------

Coronavirus Hits NSW Meat Exporter Northern Cooperative Meat Company
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2020-02-08/coronavirus-hits-nsw-meat-exporter/11942392

The Casino-based Northern Cooperative Meat Company has product stuck at ports awaiting the return of Chinese dock workers

Company CEO Simon Stahl says processing in China has been delayed by up to nine days

Mr Stahl confirmed two Australian employees, who recently returned from China, were in isolation and working from home

Quote
... "We don't know how this will play out, but we are heading into volatile times,"

... Wool processors across mainland China have been shut down due to coronavirus fears, with the impact on Australian woolgrowers still uncertain.

With about three-quarters of wool produced in Australia sold to China, producers are concerned about a slowdown in demand.

"The banks are also closed, so opening letters of credit for exporters to ship wool into China has been nigh on impossible."

----------------------------

CDC Releases Guidance for Businesses
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/china-ncov-cases-continue-stable-rate-concerns-rise-about-spread-singapore

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) yesterday released interim guidance for businesses and employers. It said the documents offer advice for preventing 2019-nCoV and other respiratory illnesses in nonmedical workplace settings.

It also covers planning considerations if there are widespread community outbreaks of 2019-nCoV in the United States.

---------------------------

Planning for a Possible 2019-nCoV Outbreak in the US
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/guidance-business-response.html

... Employers should plan to monitor and respond to absenteeism at the workplace. Implement plans to continue your essential business functions in case you experience higher than usual absenteeism.

Cross-train personnel to perform essential functions so that the workplace is able to operate even if key staff members are absent.

Assess your essential functions and the reliance that others and the community have on your services or products. Be prepared to change your business practices if needed to maintain critical operations (e.g., identify alternative suppliers, prioritize customers, or temporarily suspend some of your operations if needed).
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

etienne

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #634 on: February 09, 2020, 07:27:49 AM »
Disaster management requires the right person in the right place, but I wad taught that you can't know how humans will behave as long as they haven't been in a disaster situation. So if you have a very bureaucratic organisation, it might be very difficult for the right people to do what they have to.

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #635 on: February 09, 2020, 07:53:37 AM »
Thanks to all for the updates, and especially to Sam for the math.


I read the wiki for SARS. In Toronto a single person was responsible for an infection that sickened over 250 people. That scary epidemic that is dwarfed by what we're now facing.


At another site I read that the coronavirus is viable for 9 days on a door knob or hand rail, much longer than SARS (or the common cold). This and the possibility of infecting others for 14 days while no symptoms are apparent will make this damn near impossible to contain.


I'm hugely appreciative of the massive Chinese efforts, but all they can buy us is a small head start.


Stay Healthy
Terry

These 9 days , is that a certainty ? Or is it more like a wild guess.

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #636 on: February 09, 2020, 07:54:50 AM »
Health Experts Issued an Ominous Warning About a Coronavirus Pandemic 3 Months Ago. The Virus In Their Simulation Killed 65 Million People.
https://amp.businessinsider.com/scientist-simulated-coronavirus-pandemic-deaths-2020-1

SNIP

There is no possibility of a vaccine being available in the first year. There is a fictional antiviral drug that can help the sick but not significantly limit spread of the disease.

SNIP

The scenario ends at the 18-month point, with 65 million deaths. The pandemic is beginning to slow due to the decreasing number of susceptible people. The pandemic will continue at some rate until there is an effective vaccine or until 80-90 % of the global population has been exposed. From that point on, it is likely to be an endemic childhood disease.

http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/resources

A very timely exercise.I hope some of the people required to address the Wuhan outbreak have been engaged in these simulations. I sw another, similar one last year, confined to the United States.

The death rate for the scenario was 10% c.f. ~2% for the Wuhan bug. It also seemed more infectious.

A few things came to mind watching the videos.

People continue to fight their own corners, mostly ("But what about the airlines? The hotels? The banks?).

$15 TRILLION dollars sitting in zero interest accounts!

Despite their best efforts, the players could not help but move closer to the idea of a global government to address global issues.

It failed.

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #637 on: February 09, 2020, 08:02:35 AM »
Disaster management requires the right person in the right place, but I wad taught that you can't know how humans will behave as long as they haven't been in a disaster situation. So if you have a very bureaucratic organisation, it might be very difficult for the right people to do what they have to.

Etienne,

I've worked with a lot of emergency response organizations. I can confirm the truth to what you say. Until you are placed in the position to act in the midst of an emergency or disaster, you won't know how you will react. I know I didn't. I thought I had some idea. I didn't. When that moment came, I acted almost without thinking. I had every tool I needed and did what I had to, despite the enormous risks. It wasn't actually a choice.

Of all the folks I've known who have faced similar life threatening circumstances, they tell similar stories, whether they are firefighters, police, ambulance crews, construction workers, soldiers, airmen, sailors, marines, coast guard, physicians, nurses, parents, or a myriad of others.

And that does not demean or denigrate anyone faced with such a situation who acts differently. As near as I can tell, it isn't a choice. It is instinctual at the most basic level. Some people feel the intense fear the situation warrants and stuff that down deep inside, and act anyway. Many, perhaps most, don't feel fear until much later. In the moment, the situation is and they act. For those who stuff the fear and act, the psychological impacts can be quite great. For some, the adrenaline rush that can result becomes addictive. For some who do not feel fear in the moment, that may come later. They too may suffer psychologically as a result.

With time and experience, training, planning, practice, and more, the fears become less and are mostly replaced with a deeper sense of knowing exactly what the risks are. Firefighters particularly exhibit this. They make decisions differently from most people as a result. In a disaster this is good and useful. In non disaster situations, they often will take on outsized risks that may not be warranted. Their experience directly impacts their decision making. In my limited experience soldiers often do the same.

Within emergency organizations, most of those on the first line, and their immediate leadership have faced this test. Those that haven't often will encounter serious difficulties in drills, exercises and events. I suspect that these folks 'feel' the jeopardies being simulated as all too real. And the same base instincts for self protection kick in, preventing them from placing themselves in harms way, or from doing the actions required in the moment. Instead they hesitate, freeze or flee. As a result they either wash out, or find other work that is more suitable and more pleasing to them.

Everyone has roles to play. Some can be in this front line. Many simply cannot.

Addenda ... based on a later post.

People with too much experience with simulations and less experience with real events also tend to be biased toward good outcomes. This happens because of inadequacies in the exercise scenario development, where the scenarios fail to bring home the real risks in a meaningful way.

Because of that there tends to be downplaying of the likely outcomes, far earlier than is warranted by the data. The same happens when the experience base of those involved doesn't include rapidly spreading highly lethal pandemics.

One of the best learning experiences for me was my very first. For my first qualified nuclear navy exercise, the drill staff put his hand on my shoulder and quietly said "lay down, you are dead". That was the end of my play in that drill. It gave me a front row seat to all of the events that followed and brought home that in real events, the event can directly touch on anyone, at any time. The performance of the crew for that drill was highly successful - despite several simulated deaths. The expectation for the drill scenario (a drill no one had ever trained for) was a high probability of the loss of the entire crew and of the boat. To succeed with only a few simulated fatalities was a low probability outcome.

Sam
« Last Edit: February 09, 2020, 09:46:09 AM by Sam »

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #638 on: February 09, 2020, 08:05:49 AM »
A global government ? It's all that global stuff that is killing this planet in the first place. For who are they destroying the Amazon forest ? The last thing we need is a corrupt globalist government.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #639 on: February 09, 2020, 08:06:49 AM »

... At another site I read that the coronavirus is viable for 9 days on a door knob or hand rail, much longer than SARS (or the common cold). This and the possibility of infecting others for 14 days while no symptoms are apparent will make this damn near impossible to contain.

Stay Healthy
Terry

These 9 days , is that a certainty ? Or is it more like a wild guess.

See also: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2996.msg248458.html#msg248458

How Long Coronaviruses Persist On Surfaces and How To Inactivate Them
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-coronaviruses-persist-surfaces-inactivate.html

A review article summarizes everything that researchers know about the lifetime of corona viruses on surfaces and the effect of disinfectants.

... The evaluated studies, which focus on the pathogens Sars coronavirus and Mers coronavirus, showed, for example, that the viruses can persist on surfaces and remain infectious at room temperature for up to nine days. On average, they survive between four and five days. "Low temperature and high air humidity further increase their lifespan," points out Kampf.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2020, 06:48:16 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

TerryM

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #640 on: February 09, 2020, 09:23:17 AM »
^^
Thanks
I remembered the figures, but not the source.


Terry

etienne

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #641 on: February 09, 2020, 09:50:50 AM »
I was not in an emergency response team, but responsible of the general infrastructure and of the evacuation team in a building with 4 floors including offices and IT rooms. This is more comparable with a normal life situation. Each time that there were issues, it was not the expected people who managed the situation, so if you have a very rigid hierarchy, I guess this can create troubles.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #642 on: February 09, 2020, 11:23:55 AM »
Six More Cases on Japan Cruise Ship (4 p.m. HK)
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/09/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-death-toll.html

Another six people on board the Diamond Princess have been infected with the new coronavirus, the New York Times reported, citing an announcement on board the vessel Sunday.

That brings the total number of infections there to 70, from 64 the previous day.
The six have been taken ashore, along with nine others who were brought to hospitals for reasons other than the virus, the NYT said

Japan’s Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said Sunday the country will give priority on virus inspections to elderly people on the ship in Yokohama.

Japanese media reported on Sunday that nearly 100 people onboard the ship cruise, the Diamond Princess, are "feeling unwell" and will be tested for the novel coronavirus.

There are about 600 people on the vessel who need medicine, he said.

According to the Chinese embassy in Japan, there are 22 people from Chinese mainland – two passengers and 20 crew, plus 260 Hong Kong passengers, five from Macao, as well as 20 more from Taiwan.

Among them, five Chinese nationals have been confirmed infected with the virus – one passenger from Chinese mainland, three from Hong Kong and one from Taiwan.



-------------------------

Wuhan Outbreak Peak Calculated in Study (8 a.m. HK)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-08/virus-outbreak-in-wuhan-may-soon-peak-with-more-than-5-infected

The coronavirus may have infected at least 1 in 20 people in Wuhan, the epicenter of the global outbreak, by the time it peaks in coming weeks, according to scientists modeling its spread. (... at least 550,000 people)

Trends in reported cases in Wuhan -- a city of 11 million people in lockdown since Jan. 23 -- broadly support the mathematical modeling the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine is using to predict the epidemic’s transmission dynamics.

"Assuming current trends continue, we’re still projecting a mid-to-late-February peak” in Wuhan, said Adam Kucharski, an associate professor of infectious disease epidemiology, in a Sunday email.

Kucharski and his colleagues base their modeling on a range of assumptions about the virus, including an incubation of 5.2 days and a delay from onset of symptoms to confirmation of infection of 6.1 days.

----------------------------

China Virus Funeral Order Fuels Upset As Death Toll Exceeds SARS
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2020/02/china-virus-funeral-order-fuels-upset-death-toll-exceeds-sars-200209010139644.html

Sichuan, China - Orders issued by China's top health authority for the swift cremation of the remains of coronavirus victims at facilities near the hospitals where they died appear to be an overreaction and unnecessary to curb the transmission of the disease, top epidemiologists have said.

The February 2 notice from the country's National Health Commission requires hospitals to notify funeral parlours of the death along with family members, but also states the procedure can be completed even if the family of the deceased does not agree.

According to the NHC cremation order: "If family members of an nCoV-2019 patient refuse to show up for the procedure or refuse to comply, and medical institutions, cremation parlors have failed to persuade them to do so, then the body can be cremated with the medical institutions' signature, and public security authorities overseeing the area must carry out their relevant work accordingly."

The order also prohibits funeral ceremonies for those who have died from the virus, potentially cutting off the grieving process and any religious ceremony for families and entire communities who are mourning the loss of their loved ones, and there is little sign such an arrangement is even necessary.

It is also a problem, according to epidemiologists, that both those known to have died of the coronavirus and those who have died from pneumonia but have not been not confirmed to have contracted the virus, are being cremated.

These actions are leaving major gaps in the investigation data even though it has been over a month since China first notified the World Health Organization about the outbreak.

"We still don't know even the basic descriptive epidemiological data such as distribution of cases and deaths by age, sex and risk factors, as well as presentation and proportion of various clinical symptoms and signs," Levine said.



----------------------------

U.S. Embassy in China Suspends Regular Visa Services Amid Virus (12:20 p.m. HK)

The U.S. will temporarily suspend regular visa services in mainland China from Monday as the coronavirus epidemic leaves it with “limited staffing.”

The U.S. embassy in Beijing and consulates in Chengdu, Guangzhou, Shanghai and Shenyang may not be able to respond to requests on regular visa services but may make available some emergency appointments, according to a statement on its website Saturday.

--------------------------

State Department Authorizes Personnel to Evacuate China Due to Coronavirus
https://www.axios.com/state-department-staff-evacuate-china-coronavirus-05f55f0b-25e7-4fa3-b344-b9c5d245ec7d.html

In a decision that's one step down from an order to evacuate, the U.S. State Department placed diplomatic staff and their families in China on "authorized departure," meaning they are permitted to leave the country.

----------------------------

China To Boost Medical Equipment Production Immediately (10:59 a.m. HK)

China said it will increase government procurement to boost output of medical equipment and drugs that are in acute shortage.

The nation is pushing producers of safety and health screening equipment, and makers of drugs and vaccines to run at full speed as soon as possible, the National Development and Reform Commission said Sunday. The government will help companies secure funding, licensing, facilities and raw materials if needed, and will buy any unsold products, it said.

The city of Xiaogan — the second-worst hit city in Hubei, according to state-run media Xinhua — faces a shortfall of 24,000 protective gear, 60,000 masks, as well as 15,000 goggles and face shields, Xinhua reported last week. It was citing the Xiaogan headquarters for prevention and control of the epidemic

-------------------------

Coronavirus Impact On Hong Kong Economy More Severe Than 2003’s Sars, Finance Chief Warns

Financial Secretary Paul Chan says city is now more reliant on tourism, which has been severely hammered by health crisis, on top of ongoing civil unrest

He adds that coming unemployment rate will surpass that of last quarter



-------------------------------
« Last Edit: February 09, 2020, 03:45:59 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #643 on: February 09, 2020, 01:15:31 PM »
I hear that China is still refusing help from the CDC.
If so, well, why??
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #644 on: February 09, 2020, 02:55:20 PM »
A Local Chinese Government Offers Cash Rewards for Reporting Fevers.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/world/asia/coronavirus-china.amp.html

In an unusual move to fight the spread of the virus, a Chinese county in Hubei Province, the epicenter of the outbreak, is offering cash rewards to people who report a fever — whether their own or someone else’s.

The Fang County government is trying “incentives,” according to a statement posted Saturday on its website. People who report their own fevers will receive 1,000 renminbi, the equivalent of $143 — a few days’ salary for the average Hubei resident.

Perhaps more troublingly, the statement also said that people who report the fevers of others would receive 500 renminbi, which raised the prospect of neighbors turning each other in. Communist Party cadres who investigate and verify such reports would receive the same amount.

The measures are intended “to promote the early detection, early isolation, early reporting, and early treatment of fever patients, and to ensure the health of the people,” the statement said.

----------------------------------

Videos Appears To Show People Forcibly Taken For Quarantine In China
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/video-appears-show-people-china-forcibly-taken-quarantine-over-coronavirus-n1133096

Video at link:  Two videos have surfaced on social media that appear to show people in China being taken into quarantine over the coronavirus

Posted to Twitter on Friday, one of them showed several people wearing white protective suits apparently forcibly removing three people from an apartment. One of the people appeared to struggled before they were led away.

The video was taken in the city of Kunshan, Jiangsu Province, at the home of a family who had returned from Hubei Province, according to The Associated Press, citing a report Wednesday in the official provincial media outlet, Jiangsu Communication Broadcasting Station.

A second video posted to Twitter Thursday, appeared to show two people hugging in the city of Suzhou, also in Jiangsu Province. One of them was then escorted into what looks like an isolation container on the back of a government vehicle.

It's unclear when either video was filmed.



-------------------------------

Coronavirus: Fourth Patient In UK Diagnosed
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-51430654

A fourth person has tested positive for coronavirus in the UK, England's chief medical officer has said.

The new case is a known contact of a previous British patient, and caught the virus in France.

... Meanwhile, a British man has been diagnosed with coronavirus in Majorca after contact with a carrier in France.

---------------------------
« Last Edit: February 09, 2020, 03:09:02 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #645 on: February 09, 2020, 03:25:33 PM »

The coronavirus may have infected at least 1 in 20 people in Wuhan, the epicenter of the global outbreak, by the time it peaks in coming weeks, according to scientists modeling its spread. (... at least 550,000 people)

If this was true, then a plane of 150 people or so being repatriated would have how many cases? Of course, it may be that 160+ or even 200+ wanted to travel but some were prevented due to temperature or other symptoms, so less than 5 or even just 0-2 infected might well be expected. Some may exist but not yet detected/confirmed. Still I haven't heard of many cases confirmed after going into quarantine after such flights. So does this suggest fewer than that number of cases? Or is it just good health screening/altruistic self selection for the evacuation flights?



This pattern seems unlikely if it has become that widespread and more likely to be indicative of city lockdown considerably slowing the spread?

27k confirmed plus similar number suspected is unlikely to be more than half the actual number of infections, so I think it would be surprising if there were less than 100,000 infections so maybe 550,000 isn't looking excessive?

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #646 on: February 09, 2020, 03:40:31 PM »
People can't board the plane if they have a fever.

Quote
The coronavirus may have infected at least 1 in 20 people in Wuhan, the epicenter of the global outbreak, by the time it peaks in coming weeks, according to scientists modeling its spread. (... at least 550,000 people) 
The key words are: "... by the time it peaks in coming weeks"
i.e. by the middle of March - not now.

The study link is here with graphs of cases vs. time:

Open Access: Adam Kucharski, Analysis and projections of transmission dynamics of nCoV in Wuhan
https://cmmid.github.io/ncov/wuhan_early_dynamics/index.html
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #647 on: February 09, 2020, 04:51:25 PM »
Rapid diagnosis has been a problem with effective tracking of the spread of the virus. Just in time, a new/future based device has been invented- a version of the Star Trek Tricorder:
https://www.iflscience.com/technology/star-treks-tricorder-now-officially-exists-thanks-to-a-global-competition/all/?fbclid=IwAR3MWqNH5qZO_hgQnGIqt9MqitF4SMKKJrNvRZWYfvkM79NxYFdJWek46ZY

be cause

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #648 on: February 09, 2020, 04:57:25 PM »
  ^^ rapid diagnosis ???  i was overwhelmed with rapid advertising .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #649 on: February 09, 2020, 05:09:15 PM »
Thanks Vox

Fig 1 graphs E and F.
While 20% is not ruled out the best fit is showing 10% but there is wide range.

graph E: Data from evacuation flights doesn't at first glance seem to provide much restriction but I guess it has because the remaining uncertainties look like they involve high levels if it peaks early and low levels if it peaks late.

Graph F seems to show new confirmed cases data on the aggressive high number of cases peaking early trajectory.  Data since that (I don't have Wuhan data but Hubei data) seems to show early peak at low level. That seems to contrast with the ranges indicated where early peak means high risk of high number of cases and late peak means low number of cases.

Not at all sure I understand how this should be understood.