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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 65

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 293060 times)

KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #750 on: February 12, 2020, 02:34:06 AM »
The horse known as Covid-19 bolted for the gate about a month ago .
Finally the WHO and others in leadership roles  have woken up to the possibility the fuckin horse might get out.
To late...  If the liner is any thing to go by there are clusters of infection incubating in many places. The  developing world might have many hundreds of cases by now.

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Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #751 on: February 12, 2020, 03:39:39 AM »
The  developing world might have many hundreds of cases by now.

Yes, but hundreds of cases means only tens of ICU cases and very few deaths, if the Diamond Princess pattern holds. This looks like a very bad influenza.

The problem is the infectiveness of it. It may last up to 9 days over objects and incubation periods of 20 days reported, 14 more likely. In areas of dense population, hospitals could be overwhelmed quickly. This causes people to drop down the triage queue, receiving less healthcare, resulting in more fatal outcomes.

I suspect that pollution and other living conditions make everything worse since this thing has an affinity for vulnerable lungs.

As long as there isn't an outbreak anywhere else, we should be good. The threat of Covid-19 for 2020 in the US is over by April, May at most. For the rest of the world varies according to their climate.





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vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #752 on: February 12, 2020, 04:12:24 AM »
Virus Testing for 3,000 On Cruise Ship a Logistical Nightmare
http://www.asahi.com/sp/ajw/articles/13119000

Health minister Katsunobu Kato said Feb. 10 the ministry is giving serious consideration to testing all the passengers and crew members who are living as virtual prisoners on the ship as they are barred from mingling with others on board.

... But the ministry said there are simply too many people on the ship to conduct blanket testing, among other reasons.

A succession of new infections among passengers over several days may force the ministry's hand, however.

The ministry has called on prefectural and municipal public health institutes around the nation, as well as private testing companies and university hospitals, to see whether it is possible to set up a system that allows swift testing of everyone aboard the ship.

The matter has taken on some urgency in light of the rash of new infections and frayed nerves aboard the vessel.

The ministry said about 1,500 people could be tested in a single day if all testing devices kept by the National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) and prefectural and municipal public health institutes were used.

A high-ranking ministry official expressed doubts about the feasibility of the plan, saying: “Testing at private companies will cost a lot. Prefectural and municipal public health institutes have little experience in testing for this new coronavirus. I’m not sure if it is possible to test such a large number of people.”

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga expressed the same sentiment.

“As things stand now, it will be really tough to test (all remaining passengers),” he said at a Feb. 10 news conference.

... According to the ministry, 29 doctors, 18 nurses and 12 pharmacists were working on the cruise ship as of the evening of Feb. 10.

A lack of medication remains a serious issue.

-------------------------

Indonesia Has 0 Infections So Far, and It’s Making People Fearful
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3050064/coronavirus-indonesia-has-0-infections-so-far-and-its-making

There is a fear that confirmed cases will appear in force, if they haven’t already and have just been going unreported.

These fears have been fuelled by Indonesia’s poor performance in dealing with the H5N1 bird flu virus more than a decade ago, which killed 165 out of 197 infected Indonesians between 2005 and 2014 – an 84 per cent death rate. The complaints included not identifying and reporting outbreak clusters swiftly, or properly monitoring and culling populations of commercial fowl.

Nevertheless, officials are preparing for the worst, and businesses are bracing for the inevitable impact on the economy

-----------------------------

Coronavirus Forcing Nissan To Halt Production at Kyushu Plant
http://www.asahi.com/sp/ajw/articles/13118645

Nissan Motor Co. said it will suspend all operations at its largest domestic production base starting on Feb. 14 because the novel coronavirus outbreak in China has disrupted supply chains.

It will be the first plant in Japan for finished vehicles to halt production because of coronavirus-related factors.

... According to the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), Japan imported 347 billion yen ($3.1 billion) in Chinese-made auto parts in 2018.
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KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #753 on: February 12, 2020, 05:08:35 AM »
Quote
we should be good. The threat of Covid-19 for 2020 in the US is over by April, May at most.

Your "we" is somewhat misplaced Ke-mo sah-bee.
The hint is contained in the name...Kiwi Griff.
Seeing this "we" lives in the other hemisphere were April / May is  autumn hence the beginning of  flu season.

This virus will probably become endemic to humans with some immunity for those who grow up with exposure.
Pity about those who did not and are over fifty getting their first dose as they seem to be most susceptible to death from the effects .
“If you are part of a society that votes, then do so. There may be no candidates and no measures you want to vote for ... but there are certain to be ones you want to vote against. In case of doubt, vote against. By this rule you will rarely go wrong.”

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etienne

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #754 on: February 12, 2020, 06:48:24 AM »
Terry:

I know the University has tried to collect information like how many students our department has from China.

These are our instructions, updated today: https://lnu.se/en/meet-linnaeus-university/contact-and-visit-us/crisis-and-security/corona/

Nothing special: wash your hands, don't go to class/work when you are ill.
Well, I know so many kids with flu or a cold right now. If all parents had to stay home we would just stop everything.

TerryM

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #755 on: February 12, 2020, 07:07:10 AM »

With Japan having this much difficulty dealing with 3k of converiently isolated potential cases, imagine what even a medium scale outbreak would look like in a less advanced, less affluent setting.


What other cruise ship destinations, possibly not as well equipped to handle a medical emergency will have welcomed tourists from Hubei? Would a slight uptick in pneumonia deaths even have been noticed? Would any tourist economies dare to hide a few inconvenient deaths? Would other tourists, returning from their two week holiday even be aware that a Chinese tourist had once infected the maid?


Catching the flu a few weeks after a vacation in Tahiti, Fiji, or Acapulco's no reason to see the doctor. Besides, meeting all of the sales reps was enough to slow anyone down.


I hope that the April/May predictions are correct, but Australia is already reporting multiple cases & it seems possible to me that this could play between both hemispheres for a very long time.
Terry

etienne

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #756 on: February 12, 2020, 07:20:27 AM »
The website :
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
now also has a logarithmic presentation of the number of cases. What is interesting is that Chinese and international cases have now a parallel growth with a logarithmic scale.

The last points on the graph are often updated because all cases are not declared yet.
« Last Edit: February 12, 2020, 07:51:26 AM by etienne »

Paddy

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #757 on: February 12, 2020, 08:59:44 AM »
Quote from: vox_mundi

[B
We have to treat the new cases with a dose of scepticism as Chinese authorities appeared yesterday to change the way these were counted.[/b] Previously anyone diagnosed with the virus was included as a new case, but from now on only people with symptoms of infection will be included in this number

Do you have a source for this statement?

Alison

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #758 on: February 12, 2020, 09:19:15 AM »
That was part of a live update on the Guardian website yesterday, I believe

bluice

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #759 on: February 12, 2020, 10:21:37 AM »
Many cities and regions still have working bans in place or only one person at the time is allowed to work in an office. This means businesses are operating with minimum staff working from home = not much is happening.

At the moment there is hardly any demand for air or ocean freight outbound from China. An overlooked consequence is that to adjust capacity to reduced demand container lines have voided sailings from China to the extent that perhaps 50% of capacity is removed. This will cause an enormous bottleneck for European exports from March onwards when these voided sailings were supposed to depart back to their eastbound voyages. There will be no ships and no empty containers.

Also, cargo shipped before Chinese New Year is still at sea but in two weeks time companies in Europe and the US start to miss their imports from China. There is very little air freight services available and roads are closed so even when China returns to work supply chains won't become fully operational.

We are already seeing the effects Intra-Asia such as Korean and Japanese car factories halting production, but other continents have not felt the economic blow yet. This doesn't mean it is not coming.

edit: typo
« Last Edit: February 12, 2020, 11:04:25 AM by bluice »

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #760 on: February 12, 2020, 10:23:27 AM »
Quote from: vox_mundi
We have to treat the new cases with a dose of scepticism as Chinese authorities appeared yesterday to change the way these were counted. Previously anyone diagnosed with the virus was included as a new case, but from now on only people with symptoms of infection will be included in this number

Do you have a source for this statement?

Diagnostic guidelines issued last week in China say people without symptoms who test positive for the virus as part of efforts to trace contacts of known cases should only be counted as confirmed cases if they start showing symptoms.

http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2020-02/07/content_5475813.htm
http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/zhengceku/2020-02/07/5475813/files/9a774a4defee44daa05894138bd0509a.pdf
----------------------------
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #761 on: February 12, 2020, 10:26:14 AM »
Here you go Paddy , from yesterday;

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3874490
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #762 on: February 12, 2020, 12:19:33 PM »
If my understanding is correct, while Ebola is much more deadly, this coronavirus (needs nickname) spreads like the common cold.
The new name Covid-19 is not much better than the old name  ;D
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #763 on: February 12, 2020, 12:26:35 PM »
I heard it's actually pronounced "Covfefe" !  ;D
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gerontocrat

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #764 on: February 12, 2020, 01:11:04 PM »
A pretty good article on supply chain disruptions and the risk in sendng people back to work.

https://apnews.com/4736cbb6bcb0a7b7b46bb390049223cd
Businesses struggle to fix supply chains disrupted by virus

Some quotes....

There is no plan(et) B.

Quote
“This is the worst supply chain problem I’ve seen in 40 years,’’ said Isaac Larian, CEO and founder of toymaker MGA Entertainment, which produces the popular LOL dolls. “There is no contingency plan.’’

Quote
Retailers are increasingly concerned that shipments will not arrive in time for Easter and Mother’s Day, which would force them to mark down the price of merchandise that missed its sell-by date.

No one wants women’s bonnets after Easter Sunday,’’ said consultant Rick Helfenbein, former president and CEO of the American Apparel & Footwear Association.

Quote
The consequences are severe in part because so many companies depend on “just-in-time’’ deliveries to limit the cost of stockpiling supplies. David Closs, an auto industry expert at Michigan State University, noted that many auto parts coming out of China – especially electronics — are flown to the United States. And American plants don’t have inventory on hand.

Quote
Chinese authorities face “a difficult balancing act between containing the virus and resuming business,’’ Kaho Yu, a senior Asia analyst at the consulting firm Verisk Maplecroft, said in a research report. “The return of workers to crowded environments, such as mines and factories, could push the outbreak to another peak, resulting in rising discontent and political pressure for failing to control the crisis.’’

Perhaps things will not necessarily return to "normal"?

Quote
The health crisis is giving multinational companies another reason to rethink their dependence on China, which has been at the center of repeated outbreaks — bird flu in 1997, SARS in 2003 and now the coronavirus.

Koray Köse, senior director of supply chain research at the Gartner consultancy, said companies need to better assess the risks involved in manufacturing in China and other developing countries.

“It’s a wake-up call,’’ he said. “Companies will have to think about their manufacturing footprint and their appetite for risk.’’

Those companies already had reason to consider moving some production out of China. Costs there are rising. And robotics and other technologies are reducing labor costs and making it more feasible to manufacture in high-wage locations such as the United States and Europe.
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kassy

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #765 on: February 12, 2020, 02:37:58 PM »
Coronavirus: Chinese Grand Prix postponed over virus fears

The FIA, Formula 1's governing body, has accepted a request from Chinese organisers to postpone the Shanghai race, due to take place on 19 April.

In a statement, it added all parties would take the "appropriate amount of time" to discuss potential new dates.

The decision has been made to "ensure the health and safety" of drivers, staff and fans.

etc

https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/51471569
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kassy

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #766 on: February 12, 2020, 03:50:52 PM »
I can't answer either question, but I'll buy as many chinese products as possible in the next months. A form of reverse boycott. :)
Terry

Probably just you being a bit contrarian but it is 2020 so in the grand scheme of things don´t buy products you do not need. And buy locally if you can (reasonable chance it is still chinese).

Just because you do not have to pay the actual cost in shipping does not mean the planet does not have too.
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Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #767 on: February 12, 2020, 04:17:52 PM »
Kiwi Griff I did not mean offense. I hope for the best possible outcome for anyone reading this.

I do not know your personal situation, but now might be a good time to improve eating and lifestyle habits for an extra boost of immunity for the coming season. If you are healthy get vaccinated against the worst flu strains common to your area. Make sure your stocks of whatever you use to combat the common cold are plentiful. In my home we use:

1.  lemons, oranges for vitamin C supplements. For me this is magical. Results may vary.
2.  Nyquil, because it helps sleep, a vital part of healing.
3.  Vaporizers to help breath at nigh, helping sleep.
4.  Vicks inhalation for temporary nasal decongestion
5.  Honey. Because that is what my grandma told me and it is a satisfying excuse to eat honey

all with varying degrees of effectiveness.
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be cause

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #768 on: February 12, 2020, 04:30:21 PM »
...and lots of tea tree oil .. b.c. ( not b.s. :)  )
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vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #769 on: February 12, 2020, 05:49:11 PM »
Inevitable Impact of Coronavirus On the World’s Rare Earths Supply
https://investorintel.com/sectors/technology-metals/technology-metals-intel/inevitable-impact-coronavirus-worlds-rare-earths-supply/

Critical materials-based supply chains may be hanging by a thread, the thread of the size of existing Chinese inventories.

The coronavirus outbreak in China has had a foreseeable but unintended consequence. Truck drivers have refused to make deliveries into areas either identified as or suspected of harboring the disease.

This has interrupted not only the flow of minerals out of the affected areas but also the refining and manufacturing of metals, food, and fuel. Among the under-reported deficiencies thereby caused the most important ones for the global rare earths production and utilization industries is the interruption in the flow of chemical reagents necessary for refining rare earths and for producing metals, alloys, and magnets.

It cannot be overemphasized that the shutdown of a supply chain on purpose is time consuming, and its re-start even more so. Supply chains are not turned on and off with the flick of a switch.

Rare earth enabled components for moving machinery, such as automobiles, trucks, trains, aircraft, industrial motors and generators, home appliances, and consumer goods, almost all today come from China or Japan (which of course gets its rare earth magnets, alloys, phosphors, and catalysts from China). That flow is now slowing. This will have a domino effect on American and European industry. These items cannot be re-sourced due to China’s monopoly of rare earths production and its monopsony of rare earth enabled component manufacturing.



Rare earth mineral prices skyrocketed in 2010 when China cut exports, which motivated new production outside of China—in the United States, Australia, Russia, Thailand, Malaysia, and other countries. Thailand, Malaysia, have current virus outbreaks.

------------------------------

How Fast Can China Revive the Economy After Outbreak?
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3050253/coronavirus-how-fast-can-china-revive-economy-after-outbreak

A significant shift is taking place across China as local authorities are being told by Beijing to kick start economic activities and to revoke certain draconian measures limiting the flow of cargo and people.

While containing the spread of the novel coronavirus, which has infected nearly 45,000 people and killed more than 1,100 people across the country, remains a priority for local Communist Party officials, the message from the central government is clear – they cannot put the country’s long-term economic prospects at risk by overreacting to the outbreak.


The resumption of work at factories, construction sites and office buildings, however, cannot be done overnight as China’s economic hubs – including the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and major cities like Beijing and Shanghai – also have the greatest potential exposure to the pneumonia virus due to an influx of returning migrant workers.

Companies engaged in the production of medical equipment – including masks – and delivery firms are the first group of businesses to restart operation, local government directives show. Factories and manufacturers that employ only locals and take sufficient quarantine measures are next in line.

In Hangzhou, for example, people returning to work must have been in the eastern Chinese city for 14 days, and be in good health; they must not have visited a virus-hit area since the start of the year; and they must not have been exposed to suspected or confirmed cases or any infections in their neighbourhood.

One common requirement for factories is that the employer must provide masks to its employees, typically two per employee for 10 days. This has proved difficult, however, as China is experiencing a severe mask shortage.

“As far as we know, even for those enterprises with annual sales of more than 20 million yuan (US$2.8 million) in Ningbo city, about 50, or 5 per cent of them, have been allowed to restart work so far,” said Linda Chen, who works at a company producing supporting frameworks for tablets in Zhejiang province, where Ningbo is located. “Although we have been allowed to restart production, only 20 per cent of our workers are able to return to work, mainly local Ningbo residents.”

“We can only arrange 200 employees to work on the production line of our plant in Guangdong, because the local government requires every enterprise to have at least two masks per day, and 10 days of reserve for each employee,” she said.

“That means we must have 4,000 masks in stock every day, and it means that we must stock up more masks if we want more workers to restart work.”

------------------------------------

Weakest Link: Global Supply Chains Disrupted by Coronavirus
https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/weakest-link-global-supply-chains-disrupted-due-coronavirus-200212033618174.html

... Stephen Wong, a Malaysian who imports tech components from China for a business producing locally branded computers on the outskirts of Kuala Lumpur, told Al Jazeera that most of his products are stuck in Shenzhen in southern China as workers there have been instructed to stay at home.

"Without inventory on hand, we expect to lose 70-80 percent of sales," said Wong.

Globally, Malaysia was the eighth-largest importer of Chinese goods and services in 2018, according to World Bank figures.

But companies in countries such as South Korea, Japan and the United States could suffer the most due to disrupted supplies of components and finished goods from China.

"For many global multinationals, the severe disruption of China's industrial output has highlighted the vulnerability of their global supply chains to excessive reliance on China," he said.

... Some industries have it worse than others. In a blow to some global commodity suppliers, some Chinese companies have reportedly used force majeure clauses in contracts to delay or cancel purchases of goods including liquefied natural gas (LNG) and copper.

China is the world's largest importer of copper and iron ores, accounting for approximately 50 percent of world demand for copper in 2019, according to World Bank data.

In Chile, one of the world's largest producers of mined copper, Chinese buyers have asked miners to delay shipments due to port shutdowns.

Meanwhile, trade in iron ore could be affected in the medium term as the coronavirus prompts a long delay in construction activities, according to economists at ING.

--------------------------------------

Gilead Sciences Scrambles to Supply Experimental Coronavirus Drug
https://www.wsj.com/articles/gilead-sciences-scrambles-to-supply-experimental-coronavirus-drug-11581522704

Drugmaker sprints to build up capacity to produce its promising antiviral remdesivir should it prove effective in studies in China

---------------------------------------
« Last Edit: February 12, 2020, 05:55:28 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

kassy

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #770 on: February 12, 2020, 05:55:39 PM »
Interesting. You optimize for dollars and you get a crap system who would have suspected that.
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vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #771 on: February 12, 2020, 06:23:22 PM »
China’s Cities Lock Up Residents to Prevent Spread of Virus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-11/china-s-cities-lock-up-residents-to-prevent-spread-of-virus

After one of Tom Hong’s neighbors was diagnosed with the deadly coronavirus, local officials in the southern Chinese city of Fuzhou where he lives chained the gates of his housing compound shut and barred all residents from leaving.

Hong’s confinement is part of the hodgepodge of rules restricting work and everyday activities that are now spreading out across China even as some factories and offices officially restart business. Authorities finally eased the rules on Hong’s compound on Tuesday, allowing each family to send one member outside to get groceries every two days.

With no unified national policy on how to stop the spread of the coronavirus outside the epicenter of Wuhan, officials are freelancing with their own, sometimes draconian, restrictions in a bid to avoid becoming the next locus of the disease.

In the city of Zhumadian in China’s central Henan province, the anti-virus lockdown means that only one person per family in the Yicheng district can leave the house every five days to get food.

Even that task is a challenge, after the district government ordered all shopping malls and supermarkets to close temporarily. Exceptions require approval from the authorities, according to a notice from the local government. The measures were imposed after Zhumadian reported more than 10 new cases a day for four days straight.

... Zhou Xinqi, the owner of Cixi Jinshengda Bearing Co. in Zhejiang, planned to have staff back to work on Feb. 6 but most of his 300 workers have not returned due to travel restrictions. When they do come back, they will have to be quarantined and Zhou does not expect his factory to recommence production until Feb. 25 at the earliest. ...


Motorcycle couriers drive through an intersection in Shanghai, Feb. 10

-------------------------------------

Singapore Bank Clears Office After Virus Case Found
https://apnews.com/cbe94236382299065d0fe28c1893d08b

SINGAPORE (AP) — The Singapore bank DBS on Wednesday cleared a downtown office and told some 300 employees to work from home after one of its staff was infected with the new virus, adding to concerns that also led authorities to scale back an air show drawing thousands of visitors.

... “We are also currently conducting detailed contact tracing with all employees and other parties that the infected person may have come into contact with,” DBS said.

-----------------------------------

Coronavirus: ‘Some People May Succumb’, Says Singapore As Cases Hit 50
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3050308/coronavirus-some-people-may-succumb-says-singapore

Eight coronavirus patients in Singapore are in critical condition and the public should be prepared for people to “succumb to the infection”, health authorities said on Wednesday as they announced three new cases bringing the total number of infections to 50.

Two of the new cases, workers at Grace Assembly of God churches, represent Singapore’s fifth infection cluster

The four other clusters involve: five cases linked to The Life Church and Missions Singapore; nine cases associated with a medical hall in central Singapore called Yong Thai Hang which was visited by Chinese tourists; three cases who attended a private business meeting at Grand Hyatt Hotel in January; and two who work at a construction site at Seletar Aerospace Heights.

----------------------------------------

2 Russians Flee Virus Quarantine, In Dismay At Hospitals
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/russians-flee-virus-quarantine-dismay-hospitals-68933917

MOSCOW -- One patient jumped out of a hospital window to escape her quarantine and another managed to break out by disabling an electronic lock.

Two Russian women who were kept in isolation for possible inflection by a new virus say they fled from their Russian hospitals this month because of uncooperative doctors, poor conditions and fear they would become infected. Russian health authorities haven't commented on their complaints.

In Russia, only two cases of the disease COVID-19 have been reported. Nevertheless, the authorities took vast measures to prevent the new disease from spreading and hospitalized hundreds of people who returned from China as a precaution.

Many of those quarantined in different Russian hospitals complained about dire conditions of isolation rooms and lack of cooperation from doctors, uncertain about quarantine protocols.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #772 on: February 12, 2020, 06:40:54 PM »
https://www.cbsnews.com/live/video/20200212142623-china-accused-of-censoring-coronavirus-data-outbreak-has-killed-more-than-1100-people/

--------------------------

‘It’s the Pneumonia Everybody In China Knows About’ – But Many Deaths Will Never Appear In Official Coronavirus Figures
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050311/its-pneumonia-everybody-china-knows-about-many-deaths-will-never

Retired Wuhan factory worker Wei Junlan had always been in good health, but around two weeks after developing the first signs of a cough and fever, the 63-year-old was dead from what doctors suspect was the new coronavirus.

But her death on January 21 will not show up in official statistics about the outbreak – her death certificate listed her cause of death only as “heavy pneumonia”.

Her nephew Jerry Shang said she had not been tested for the disease, but the doctor said her symptoms – including a lung infection, fever and increasing weakness – closely matched those of Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus.

By the end she was unable to walk, and the last the family saw of her was when she was being wheeled into the emergency room. The doctor told the family: “It’s the pneumonia that everybody around the country knows about.”

Local doctors have heard of many such cases and many Wuhan residents have complained that family members cannot get a proper diagnosis because frontline hospitals are overwhelmed in the face of high patient numbers and a shortage of supplies and testing kits.

Wei Peng, a community hospital doctor in the city, said medical staff were not allowed to list coronavirus as a cause of death when cases had not been confirmed and said later instructions had even banned them from listing pneumonia. Instead they can only write the immediate cause of a patient’s death, such as diabetes or organ failure.


He also said the problem was compounded by the difficulty in getting some patients to hospital in time.

He gave the example of a woman whose father died at home because she did not have the strength to get him to her car and the ambulance was too busy to collect him, “Such patients die at home, nothing can be done, and they cannot be counted in the official numbers,” he said.

Some patients, like Wei, have passed away without it ever being confirmed what had taken their lives.

China’s health authorities have admitted that the real number of Covid-19 cases is likely to be higher than officials statistics show.

The mortality rate that we calculate at the moment, is for confirmed cases, there are cases with lighter symptoms or other scenarios not included in our statistics,” Jiao Yahui, an official with the National Health Commission, said at a press conference last week.



Wei also questioned the accuracy of the official figures for Covid-19 deaths and infections.

“As they updated the list of deaths, I kept checking for her name, but she was never among them,” he said. “After a while, they stopped publishing individual names.”


The grief of those whose relatives have died at home is compounded by their confusion about what to do next and often they do not have time for proper goodbyes.

Li said the woman she was helping barely had time to deal with her husband’s death. The funeral home sent a car to pick up the body, but she did not know what to do with his bedsheets and clothes and was trying to concentrate on finding a hospital bed for her mother-in-law.

Another Wuhan resident, Xia Chengfang, was unable to say a proper farewell to her grandfather, who died on January 28.

“The hospital directly called the funeral home to cremate his body, we weren’t able to see him in the end. My mother and uncle picked up his clothing, drove far away from the crowds and burned it,” she said.

Funeral homes in the city have been working 24 hours during the outbreak. An employee from Wuchang Funeral Home named Huang told Tencent News recently that staff were working round-the-clock shifts and often only have a few minutes rest between jobs.

... After his aunt died, Jerry Shang said the family was not allowed to see her body or arrange the funeral.

Instead, the hospital collected patients’ bodies and arranged for a local funeral home to cremate them together.

-------------------------------------



-------------------------------------

Coronavirus Still Stumps Experts On When Human Carrier Turns Infectious
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3050327/coronavirus-still-stumps-experts-when-human-carrier-turns-infectious

Identifying how long it takes before carriers start to spread the virus could prove key to curbing the spread of Covid-19

Researchers are trying to determine whether it can be transmitted before carriers start to show symptoms

A study published on Sunday by a team of Chinese researchers estimated the incubation period could last up to 24 days, much longer than the previous estimate of 14 days.

The group is led by Zhong Nanshan, a global authority on severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars), which was also caused by a pathogen from the coronavirus family.

Such a long incubation period would make it particularly difficult to prevent the spread of Covid-19 if infected individuals are contagious before showing symptoms.

Michael Osterholm, director of the Centre for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said it was possible it could be transmitted by people before they become ill and there were “striking parallels” between Covid-19 and the flu virus, which can infect others during the incubation period.

“The epidemiology screams ‘flu virus-transmission’,” he said.

...The potential for patients with mild symptoms to spread the disease was also raised by China’s National Health Commission at a press conference last week.

“If we can find these cases with atypical symptoms earlier, it will help control the spread of the virus,” Li Xingwang, from the commission’s expert panel, said.

... This is where high-quality diagnostic kits are crucial, according to researchers.

Hong Kong University’s Nicholls said during in a conference call hosted by investment group CLSA last week, according to a transcript seen by the South China Morning Post:

Quote
... “When you talk about asymptomatic that means you have a good diagnostic test – where you can say they are asymptomatic – which we don’t have with this virus” ...


Media in China have criticised faulty tests that have produced large numbers of so-called “false negatives” in patients who were later confirmed to have the disease.

For instance Li Wenliang, the Wuhan doctor named as one of the first whistle-blowers of the epidemic, received several negative test results before he was finally diagnosed on January 30, and died just over a week later.

Quote
“If we have a detection device, a diagnostic kit, we need it to be four things – quick, accurate, simple, and safe. The current assay [laboratory test] we are using so far, is still far away from those four,”

- Yi-Wei Tang, China chief medical officer - US-based company Cepheid.

--------------------------------------

« Last Edit: February 12, 2020, 07:25:24 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

greylib

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #773 on: February 12, 2020, 06:50:04 PM »
Would self-driving vehicles perhaps help with deliveries of food and other vital supplies, so that households and workers can keep going?

Elon to the rescue?
Step by step, moment by moment
We live through another day.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #774 on: February 12, 2020, 06:59:21 PM »
CDC Prepares for Community Outbreaks In US
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is preparing for the coronavirus, named COVID-19, to “take a foothold in the U.S.,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters. “At some point, we are likely to see community spread in the U.S. or in other countries,” said Messonnier. “This will trigger a change in our response strategy.”



--------------------------------------

US Army Secretary Offers Help To China
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/12/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

The U.S. Army is fully prepared to help China combat the deadly coronavirus that’s spread across the country, Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street.” “The U.S. Army is built for this,” he said. “When we’re called, we’ll be locked and loaded to respond.”

(... unfortunate choice of phrase)

China has brushed aside help from global forces to stop the virus, including offers from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization.

---------------------------------------

Coronavirus Outbreak 'Just Beginning' Outside China, Says Expert
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-singapore-interview-idUSKBN2061KK

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - The coronavirus epidemic may be peaking in China where it was first detected in the central city of Wuhan but it is just beginning in the rest of the world and likely to spread, a global expert on infectious diseases said on Wednesday.

... Singapore has reported 50 coronavirus cases, one of the highest tallies outside China, including mounting evidence of local transmission.

“I’d be pretty confident though that eventually every country will have a case,” Fisher said.

Asked why there were so many cases in Singapore, he said there were comparatively more tests being conducted on the island.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #775 on: February 12, 2020, 07:22:53 PM »
Two of China’s Biggest Cities Given Power to Seize Private Property to Help Stop Spread of Coronavirus
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3050092/two-chinas-biggest-cities-given-power-seize-private-property

Shenzhen and Guangzhou introduce laws to requisition buildings and equipment to curb spread of disease

Municipal legislatures in the two cities met early on Tuesday and approved similar bills with provisions to mobilise governments, companies and individuals to fight the virus, which has so far killed more than a thousand people and infected more than 40,000.

The Shenzhen and Guangzhou bills grant city and district governments the authority to requisition houses, public venues and vehicles from individuals or companies, and to order business to produce items needed to control the disease.

As hospitals run out of space and medical supplies and medical staff come under increasing stress, local governments have been looking for spaces to isolate patients in the hope of stopping the disease spreading.

Other areas covered in the new laws include powers to quarantine and treat suspected cases and their close contacts, close down public venues and events and give business permission to return to work.

The police have been given the power to force people into quarantine and provide information to local disease control centres.

Guangdong province, which has been the worst affected area outside Hubei, also passes legislation to ban wildlife trade, which has been linked to the outbreak

--------------------------

Coronavirus: Top Chinese Expert Says Family Isolation Curbs Outbreak, Contradicting Claims in Beijing

Chief expert of China’s Centre for Disease Control and Prevention says studies show 83 per cent of clusters of cases occur within families

Speaking at a daily coronavirus news briefing in Beijing, Wu Zunyong, chief expert of the national Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, said that his team had studied nearly 1,000 clusters of infections caused by the virus and found that 83 per cent happened within families, with the rest occurring in hospitals, schools, shopping malls and workplaces.

He said that 22 per cent of confirmed cases in these clusters contracted the disease through “first-generation transmission” – people who had lived or travelled in Hubei province where the outbreak originated. Infections in 64 per cent of these cases were among carers or individuals who had close contact with first-generation patients through events such as meals.

The remaining 14 per cent were third and fourth-generation transmissions, with the patients unknowingly contracting the virus from first-generation cases.

“Occurrences of these cluster cases showed that our control measures and treatment have been effective in preventing the spread of the virus from small units to bigger areas in the community.”

However, on Monday, the Beijing city government said it would move people from family isolation to centralised locations for monitoring, after the city reported an increase of infections within families.


Wu Jiang, the chief physician of the Beijing Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, said on Monday that 90 per cent of 77 coronavirus clusters in the capital – involving nearly 200 patients – had occurred within families, indicating that family isolation did not work.

--------------------------

EU Crisis Center Monitors Coronavirus Outbreak, Offers Aid to China
https://dw.com/en/eu-crisis-center-monitors-coronavirus-outbreak-offers-aid-to-china/a-52344944

According to the European Commission, the crisis center is now operating at full capacity. The idea is for it to coordinate all measures by EU countries and their partners and neighbors — including Iceland, Norway and the prospective EU member states North Macedonia, Serbia, Montenegro and Turkey — to contain the coronavirus outbreak. Should a member state be unable to implement the necessary measures, the center can organize assistance from other states. The European Commission has pledged to invest €10 million ($10.9 million) to efforts to develop a vaccine.

---------------------------

Coronavirus: How the Outbreak is Testing China’s Vaunted Surveillance Technology
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050213/coronavirus-how-outbreak-testing-chinas-vaunted-surveillance

Masks could be preventing China’s massive surveillance system from reading faces fully, according to AI scientists

Suspects who avoided home quarantine were at large for weeks, going to shopping malls, dining in restaurants and playing mahjong in entertainment centres

---------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #776 on: February 12, 2020, 07:30:44 PM »
First Coronavirus Case in London – Confirmed
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/12/coronavirus-live-updates-deaths-infections-symptoms-transmission-wuhan-china-cruise-ship-quarantine-cases-latest-update-news

The Sun is reporting that the first coronavirus case has been confirmed in London. The paper cites a source at City Hall saying the victim is a Chinese national and was diagnosed this afternoon.

The Guardian has confirmed that a coronavirus case has been diagnosed in London. The victim is understood to be a woman and is on her way to hospital, a source said.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #777 on: February 12, 2020, 08:01:40 PM »
Duterte Claims Filipino Antibodies Can Prevent Covid-19 Transmission
https://www.ibtimes.com/coronavirus-update-duterte-claims-filipino-antibodies-can-prevent-covid-19-2920675

Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte, already infamous for a drug war that's seen the muders of more than 12,000 Filipinos, went on another rant Tuesday, this time bragging Filipinos should rely on their inborn "antibodies" to defeat the deadly coronavirus infection.

He also said his government, which is being widely criticized for its pro-China response to the outbreak, was "on top" of what he called the "idiot" coronavirus threat. He also ordered Filipino doctors to work double-time to find a cure for Covid-19.

... "So if you say it's a matter of contamination, we will just have to rely on how strong the antibodies of the Philippines are," Duterte said in a speech before local chief executives, Rappler reported.

"Filipinos don't get sick easily. First of all, they pray a lot.... It's when you do not follow rules that trouble comes in and that's true for every human act," he added.

And, in the event the coronavirus outbreak becomes a pandemic that leads to civil disorder in the Philippines, Duterte promised the Philippine Army will quell any protest by the Filipino public.

"If you say it's really a pandemic already, then I will have to utilize for order and obedience of people, the military and the police," said Duterte.



--------------------

Amid Coronavirus Outbreak, Trump Proposes Slashing CDC Budget
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/02/amid-coronavirus-outbreak-trump-proposes-slashing-cdc-budget/

Amid an explosive outbreak of a novel coronavirus in China that has killed over 1,000 and sickened over 43,000 worldwide, US President Donald Trump proposed a nearly 19 percent budget cut to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention—the agency primarily tasked with preparing for and responding to such outbreaks and other serious health threats.

... The budget also cuts funding for infectious-disease responses, including a 13 percent cut to programs under the category of “emerging and zoonotic infectious diseases.” (Zoonotic infectious diseases are those that spread from animals to people, of which the novel coronavirus is one.) This category includes cuts to programs addressing antibiotic-resistant infections, food safety, and healthcare-associated infections.

Additionally, Trump proposes a 10 percent cut to “public health scientific services,” which includes funding for health statistics, surveillance, epidemiology, and informatics activities. There’s also a 3 percent cut to “public health preparedness and response” programs and a nearly 7 percent cut to global health programs.

Senate Budget Committee Ranking Member Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said in a statement that “the Trump Budget does not see a problem in this country it cannot somehow make worse.”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #778 on: February 12, 2020, 09:42:45 PM »
Coronavirus Test Kits Sent to States, 30 Countries Are Flawed, C.D.C. Says
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/12/health/coronavirus-test-kits-cdc.html

Some of the coronavirus testing kits sent to states and to at least 30 other countries have flaws and do not work properly and deliver “inconclusive” results, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said on Wednesday.

The kits were meant to enable states to conduct their own testing and get results faster than they would by shipping samples to the C.D.C. in Atlanta. But the failure of the kits means that states still have to depend on the C.D.C., which will mean several days’ delay in getting results.

The C.D.C. announced last week that it had begun shipping about 200 kits to laboratories in the United States and roughly 200 more to labs in more than 30 other countries. Each kit can test about 700 to 800 specimens from patients, the agency said.

Officials have not said how many of the kits are flawed.

On trial runs in some states, the kits produced results that were “inconclusive,”
Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said at a news conference on Wednesday.

“Things may not always go as smoothly as we may like,” Dr. Messonnier said.

She said the C.D.C. was working closely with the states, and would send out new ingredients to laboratories that have encountered the problem.

The flawed test kits are a separate issue from the mislabeled samples in San Diego that led officials to discharge from the hospital a woman who was sick from the coronavirus.

« Last Edit: February 12, 2020, 09:56:42 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #779 on: February 13, 2020, 01:06:33 AM »
https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia

reporting Cumulative diagnosis 59617 up from 44742 yesterday. That is a big jump, perhaps it will be "corrected".

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

also reporting jump to  59539 in mainland China even though Hubei is shown at 33366 same as yesterday. Huh? Don't see where the extra cases are.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 01:13:55 AM by crandles »

be cause

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #780 on: February 13, 2020, 01:15:05 AM »
^^ INDEED ..  while the J hopkins site shows 59,539 in mainland China , the world total appeared for a moment in excess of 60k before settling at 45,222  . Now above 60k again with deaths at 1360 .. has an attempt at honesty happened ?
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #781 on: February 13, 2020, 01:17:57 AM »
Hubei includes the number of clinically diagnosed cases for the first time

[# Hubei first included the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the new data #] From 00:00 to 24:00 on the 12th, Hubei Province newly added 14840 new cases of pneumonia (including 13332 clinically diagnosed cases). #What is a clinical diagnosis case #? Why increase the diagnosis of clinical cases? Stamp ↓ CCTV News

“If you are part of a society that votes, then do so. There may be no candidates and no measures you want to vote for ... but there are certain to be ones you want to vote against. In case of doubt, vote against. By this rule you will rarely go wrong.”

― Robert A. Heinlein, Time Enough for Love

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #782 on: February 13, 2020, 02:44:27 AM »
Hubei Province Reports Spike In New Confirmed Cases and Deaths After Change in Diagnostic Criteria
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050354/coronavirus-hubei-province-reports-sharp-spike-new-confirmed

Hubei’s new confirmed cases pegged at 14,840, nearly 10 times more than the previous day, while deaths more than doubled to 242

...Hubei’s health commission said in its daily statement that it had changed the diagnostic criteria used to confirm cases, effective Thursday, meaning that doctors have broader discretion to determine which patients are infected.

“From today on, we will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases so that patients could receive timely treatment,” the health authority said in a statement, which did not provide further details about the new criteria.


Previously, patients could only be diagnosed by test kits, which has seen a shortage of supply across the country.

The National Health Commission has not yet released the national total of new cases and deaths.

-------------------------

Coronavirus: Second Confirmed Case Among Evacuees at San Diego Quarantine Station, Brings Total US Cases To 14
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/article/3050352/coronavirus-second-confirmed-case-among-evacuees-san-diego-quarantine

New confirmed case at San Diego’s Marine Corps Air Station Miramar arrived from Wuhan on Friday

Health authorities diagnosed a previous case in the US on the Miramar base on Sunday

News of the case came amid growing concerns among evacuees under quarantine about the systems in place to protect them from possible infection.

Those concerns were prompted by the CDC’s announcement on Monday that the first case had been mistakenly determined as testing negative for the virus and been allowed to return to the base for a brief period of time.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials said it appeared that the two San Diego patients were separately exposed to the virus in China before arriving in the United States. The two arrived on different planes and were housed in separate facilities.

--------------------------
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 06:18:22 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #783 on: February 13, 2020, 03:28:50 AM »
What China’s Empty New Coronavirus Hospitals Say About Its Secretive System
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/12/what-chinas-empty-new-coronavirus-hospitals-say-about-its-secretive-system

Even after declaring a crisis, government seemed focused on managing its image as well as the outbreak.

China’s two new hospitals built in as many weeks were the official face of its fight against the coronavirus in Wuhan. As the city was locked down, authorities promised that thousands of doctors would be on hand to treat 2,600 patients on the facilities’ wards.

Timelapse videos tracked the almost incomprehensibly fast construction of the hospitals, and state media celebrated their opening in early February. The only thing missing a week later? Patients

... Four days after its opening, the larger Leishenshan hospital had only 90 patients, on wards designed for 1,600, but was reporting no spare beds, Wuhan city heath data, first reported by the Chinese magazine Caixin, showed. The other facility, Huoshenshan, had not yet filled its 1,000 beds a week after opening.

Meanwhile, the city was setting up emergency hospitals in exhibition halls and a sports stadium, and medics were still turning some ill people away. China has the world’s largest army but it has not deployed any field hospitals to Wuhan.

... Communist party apparatus well honed to crush dissent also muffles legitimate warnings. A propaganda system designed to support the party and state cannot be relied on for accurate information. That is a problem not just for families left bereft by the coronavirus and businesses destroyed by the sudden shutdown, but for a world trying to assess Beijing’s success in controlling and containing the disease.

... The problems of officials trying to cover up scandals or mistakes are not unique to China. But without a free press, elections or much space for civil society, there are few ways for citizens to hold their rulers accountable. Instead, local officials answer only to a party hierarchy that puts a premium on stability and economic growth

... "the incentives are not for a health director (for example) to respond to public health crises in Wuhan first and foremost. The incentive is to do what the party wants … and not embarrass the party.”

-----------------------

Viral Alarm: When Fury Overcomes Fear
http://www.chinafile.com/reporting-opinion/viewpoint/viral-alarm-when-fury-overcomes-fear

An Essay by Xu Zhangrun, Translated and Annotated by Geremie R. Barmé

-------------------------------

Coronavirus Economic Impact Won't Last Beyond 2020: Treasury's Mnuchin
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-mnuchin/coronavirus-economic-impact-wont-last-beyond-2020-treasurys-mnuchin-idUSKBN2062QV

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Wednesday that the negative economic impact from the coronavirus outbreak is a one-time event that will not last beyond 2020.

At a hearing before the Senate Finance Committee on the Trump administration’s budget plan, he said the coronavirus would not affect the administration’s long-term U.S. growth forecasts.

“I don’t expect the coronavirus will have an impact beyond this year,” Mnuchin said.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #784 on: February 13, 2020, 03:32:51 AM »

I hope that the April/May predictions are correct, but Australia is already reporting multiple cases & it seems possible to me that this could play between both hemispheres for a very long time.
Terry

A number of expert epidemiologists have said this new coronavirus is here for good. It will join the 4 other known coronaviruses that infect humans which are responsible for 25% of all common colds.

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #785 on: February 13, 2020, 04:57:43 AM »
Hubei includes the number of clinically diagnosed cases for the first time

[# Hubei first included the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the new data #] From 00:00 to 24:00 on the 12th, Hubei Province newly added 14840 new cases of pneumonia (including 13332 clinically diagnosed cases). #What is a clinical diagnosis case #? Why increase the diagnosis of clinical cases? Stamp ↓ CCTV News

Maybe it's just a tactic. If nobody in China beliefs what the government says , people will maybe also stay inside when the virus is gone. Making it worse for the economy.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #786 on: February 13, 2020, 05:20:56 AM »
44 More Cases On Diamond Princess Cruise Ship Anchored Off Japan
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3050375/coronavirus-44-more-cases-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-anchored

Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said the 44 new cases were detected from another 221 new tests. They raise the number of infections detected on the Diamond Princess to 218, in addition to a quarantine officer who also tested positive for the virus.

Of the newly diagnosed infections, 43 are passengers, and one a member of the crew.

... Kato said authorities now want to move elderly people off the ship if they test negative for the virus, offering to put them in government-designated lodging.



... Despite Carnival’s strict measures, the virus may be spreading through the vessel’s close quarters – increasing the potential for passengers to contract it despite stopping it from reaching Japanese soil.

“The quarantine is working to keep the virus offshore – it’s obvious the quarantine is not working on the ship”

The infection of a quarantine official, announced separately on Wednesday, has caused more disquiet. The worker wore gloves and a mask and disinfected his hands regularly when he spent a day collecting health questionnaires and taking people’s temperatures on the ship February 3-4, according to Japan’s health ministry.

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CDC Director: More Person-to-Person Coronavirus Infections in U.S. Likely
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/12/cdc-director-more-person-to-person-coronavirus-infections-in-u-s-likely-but-containment-still-possible/

... “We’re not going to be able to seal this virus from coming into this country,” ... “We’re still going to see new cases. We’re probably going to see human-to-human transmission within the United States,” Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said in an interview with STAT.

He added that “at some point in time it is highly probable that we’ll have to transition to mitigation” as a public health strategy, using “social distancing measures” — for example, closure of certain public facilities — and other techniques to try to limit the number of people who become infected.

“That’s where we are right now in the United States.”

If the United States begins to see instances in several parts of the country in which a single case ignites four “generations” of human-to-human infection, Redfield said — meaning a person who contracted the virus infects a person, who infects another person, who then infects another person — then the CDC is likely to conclude containment of the virus has failed.

“Once we get greater than three — so four or more is our view — [generations of] human-to-human transmission in the community … and we see that in multiple areas of the country that are not contiguous, then basically the value of all of the containment strategies that we’ve done now then really become not effective,” he said. “That’s when we’re in full mitigation.”

... “This really isn’t a ‘let’s stop it and then we’re done.’ It’s a ‘if we can pause it a little bit, we buy ourselves some time to work on the rest of our pandemic planning,’” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said at a panel discussion Tuesday at the Aspen Institute in Washington.

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CDC Says Warm Weather May Not Slow Outbreak (1:06 p.m. NY)
bloomberg.com

It’s too early to know if warm spring weather that typically heralds the end of cold and flu season will also slow the coronavirus, said a top official from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said Wednesday that she hopes “it will go down as the weather warms up, but it’s premature to assume that.”

Messonnier’s remarks Wednesday run counter to a theory put forward by President Donald Trump that heat would stop the new coronavirus.

“The heat, generally speaking, kills this kind of virus,” Trump said Monday at the White House. “A lot of people think that goes away in April as the heat comes in.” At a campaign rally this week, Trump went further, according to a CNN report on his remarks, saying:


Quote
.... “in theory when it gets a little warmer it miraculously goes away.”

During a call with reporters Wednesday Messonnier said, “I would caution against over-interpreting that hypothesis.”

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« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 05:29:51 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sidd

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #787 on: February 13, 2020, 05:55:18 AM »
Noh at blackagendareport counters media attacks on China:

"US corporate media, especially the Times, has turned a medical emergency into a racist campaign of ideological propaganda."

"none of the assertions are supported by the facts, and none of the interpretations bear scrutiny.  "

"western corporate media have chosen to go all out to criticize and demonize China"

"The NY Times suggests that Dr Li was a whistle blower, “sounding a warning.”  But Dr. Li was not a whistle blower, by any usual definition of the word.  He didn't notify the Chinese CDC or any public health organ.  He did not notify the hospital authorities.  He did not warn the public of wrongdoing, danger, or cover up. What he did do is share information with 7 school colleagues on 12/30 on a private messaging group.  (He also shared a photo of a confidential medical record). "

"The "whistle"--if we can call it that--had already been blown by others.  For example, doctor, Zhang Jixian, the director of respiratory and critical care medicine at Hubei Provincial Hospital, had officially notified the hospital on December 27th of an unusual cluster of viral cases, and the hospital had notified the city's' disease control center.  After further consultation on the 29th, the regional CDC was notified and had started full scale research and investigation. "

" the NY Times suggests that the authorities recognized and knew that the disease was dangerous, but covered it up anyway.  This is far from the truth at the time: there was little clear evidence that this was a dangerous or severe epidemic at the time of the outbreak. "

" The mere fact that the Chinese authorities were able to identify and take action on this so rapidly is indicates how competent, effective, and conscientious many of them were."

"Dr Li had no expertise in the subject matter, was not familiar with the situation, was not treating affected patients, and had no expertise to make any such claims: he was a ophthalmologist (not an epidemiologist, virologist, infectious disease specialist, internist, ICU specialist) ... There's no proof that he was privy to any specialized insider information that was being covered up; and the hospital was already taking all known precautions with patients at the time."

"Dr. Li was not ahead of the government. As we noted above regarding the timeline, the government (Wuhan disease authorities) had already been informed, and they delivered their own public warning the same day as Dr Li's sharing with his friends. There is little evidence to show that this was "forced" or "compelled" by the ophthalmologist’s message (as the NY Times has claimed)."

"the NY Times (and derivative media) has been savage and odious in exploiting every perceived mishap as a pretext to pile on and attack the Chinese people and the Chinese system"

"Were the responses perfect?  Most certainly not.  Were there gaps and lapses?  Absolutely, yes. Did the central and local government work hand-in-hand perfectly?  Most certainly not.   Was there discontent expressed on Weibo and other public fora?  Most certainly. "

https://www.blackagendareport.com/how-yellow-cake-tragedy-new-york-times-spreads-virus-hatred-again

sidd

blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #788 on: February 13, 2020, 06:22:37 AM »
Thanks for sharing, Sidd!
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sidd

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #789 on: February 13, 2020, 07:02:46 AM »
NYT has always has a bug about China, look up Wen Ho Lee sometime. But that is a topic for the media thread.

sidd

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #790 on: February 13, 2020, 08:33:48 AM »
First village (10 000 population) in lock down in Viëtnam.

Neven

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #791 on: February 13, 2020, 08:54:14 AM »
"US corporate media, especially the Times, has turned a medical emergency into a racist campaign of ideological propaganda."

Virus proves communism bad, and we need new enemy (muslim terrorists don't boost Raytheon's profits enough, exponential profit growth being a primary need).
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blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #792 on: February 13, 2020, 08:59:57 AM »
Exactly!
"Is a thin line 'tween heaven and here" - Bubbles

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #793 on: February 13, 2020, 09:22:19 AM »
Quote
During a call with reporters Wednesday Messonnier said, “I would caution against over-interpreting that hypothesis.”

Effects of Air Temperature and Relative Humidity on Coronavirus Survival on Surfaces

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/

Quote
Two potential surrogates were evaluated in this study; transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV) and mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) were used to determine effects of AT and RH on the survival of coronaviruses on stainless steel. At 4°C, infectious virus persisted for as long as 28 days, and the lowest level of inactivation occurred at 20% RH. Inactivation was more rapid at 20°C than at 4°C at all humidity levels; the viruses persisted for 5 to 28 days, and the slowest inactivation occurred at low RH.


The persistence outside of the body is key to the transmission of the virus. The longer it persists the higher the chance of copying. The persistence of the virus is determined in large part by the climate the virus exists in. In low temperatures, the virus is preserved. Could this new strain persist in higher temperatures? I don't know.

A broken watch is right twice a day. I think that the climate must be an important consideration when fighting this.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #794 on: February 13, 2020, 09:38:47 AM »
I would not rely on the weather to stop this it may slow it down some.
2nd most infected country, ignoring japan and the cruise liner, is Singapore with 50 confirmed cases.
Climate  February 31° / 25°
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bluice

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #795 on: February 13, 2020, 10:05:44 AM »
I would not rely on the weather to stop this it may slow it down some.
2nd most infected country, ignoring japan and the cruise liner, is Singapore with 50 confirmed cases.
Climate  February 31° / 25°
I may be wrong, but tropics are usually good habitats for pathogens probably because of high humidity all year round.

It's the higher latitudes that see outbreaks during cold and wet months and less activity during summer.

bluice

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #796 on: February 13, 2020, 10:13:29 AM »
"US corporate media, especially the Times, has turned a medical emergency into a racist campaign of ideological propaganda."

Virus proves communism bad, and we need new enemy (muslim terrorists don't boost Raytheon's profits enough, exponential profit growth being a primary need).
I'd say the ruling party in the People's Republic is at least as interested in exponential economic growth as anybody on the planet.

I think some people here have difficulty to understand that criticizing Chinese central government is not equal to criticizing the Chinese people or nation. It's of course handy to label all different opinions xenophobic and racist - no further discussion is possible.

gerontocrat

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #797 on: February 13, 2020, 12:51:55 PM »
All this xenophobia, closet racism, comparisons of communism and free market systems etc that is flying in the media is a useful displacement activity to avoid focusing on what is happening and what needs to be done.

But we need not worry, that well-known world authority on Virology,  Professor D. Trump, F.U.D., B.S. etc , has it in hand.
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #798 on: February 13, 2020, 01:05:56 PM »
From Mike Snyder's latest:
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/the-number-of-coronavirus-cases-has-just-exploded-and-many-fear-that-the-worst-is-yet-to-come
Quote
Overall, there are now 59,805 confirmed cases inside China, and the death toll has now passed the 1,300 mark.

But those are not the most important numbers.

To me, it is far more important to watch what happens to the number of cases around the rest of the world.  Ultimately, that will determine whether this becomes a true global pandemic or not.

A week ago, there were 227 confirmed cases outside of China, and now there are 524.  Over the course of about a week we have seen that number more than double, and that is definitely very troubling.

And we continue to get more anecdotal evidence that the situation inside China is far more dire than government officials are admitting.
I know a lot of you consider M.S. unreliable, but you can hardly argue with the above quote.
Doubling every week means in ten weeks there will be over half a million cases outside China, even if the pandemic slows down then from warmer weather. If it doesn't, then in another ten weeks it will pass half a billion.
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be cause

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #799 on: February 13, 2020, 01:21:22 PM »
^^ thankfully (for the rest of us) much of the 'more than doubling' of numbers worldwide is in the confines of one cruise ship . Remove those cases from your calculations and Mr Snyder's bs becomes apparent again unless of course there are several hundred thousand hiding on board ... b.c.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 01:30:46 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)