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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 60

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 491794 times)

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #800 on: February 13, 2020, 01:49:50 PM »
Thanks, be cause.
What would the figures be without the cruise ship?
Maybe someone posted that and I missed it? I’m getting data overload on this topic.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #801 on: February 13, 2020, 02:02:24 PM »
First village (10 000 population) in lock down in Viëtnam.

The Vietnam Grand Prix is expected to go ahead on 5 April despite concerns over the coronavirus, says Formula 1's managing director Ross Brawn.

https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/51486367

The Chinese GP was planned for 2 weeks after that.
This one will get cancelled too if it gets worse there (they will probably wait for the organisers to ask for it).
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Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #802 on: February 13, 2020, 03:01:11 PM »

crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #803 on: February 13, 2020, 03:06:20 PM »
Thanks, be cause.
What would the figures be without the cruise ship?
Maybe someone posted that and I missed it? I’m getting data overload on this topic.

I think 523 included 175. Not sure on Diamond Princess confirmed numbers for a week ago but a handful at most.

The cruise ship is contained to 3700 people. So could grow to somewhere near 21* the number of infections. This is only well contained in long run.

Of the 523-175= 348, many are in quarantined hospital conditions.

The growth from 227 to 348 has mainly not come from the 227 but are other people having visited China or Thailand. Most of the others are close contacts of these people who at these levels can be traced.

From 23 Jan daily new outside mainland China numbers are
6
11
15
17
8
22
18
13
35
20
10
5
24
15
38
52
26
18
96
19
47

These include the 175 cruise ship confirmed cases.

Not sure about Thailand with 33 confirmed cases, but other than China and Thailand, I would suggest cases are, in short term, better contained than on the cruise ship. There are infections occurring outside China but most of the 348 are people who have traveled to China.

Confirmed cases in China are going up.
Travel reducing and being quarantined.
Quarantined evacuation flights may well reduce in number or even cease.

It is not surprising more cases are coming to light outside China.

Doubling every week for 10 weeks is highly inappropriate for these cases.

If there are lots of undetected and un-quarantined infections in rest of the world then doubling every week may be applicable to these and this is a scary possibility. However, using 227 to 523 to try to indicate it is happening is not ideal. Would be better to use numbers of infections outside China i.e. excluding people who have traveled to China. Doubt we have enough such cases yet to see whether it is passed on to more than one person per such infection.



oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #804 on: February 13, 2020, 03:09:08 PM »
The cruise ship alone has over 200 confirmed cases. But I think caution is warranted - the virus is probably brewing in half a dozen locations outside China right now. The next two weeks are crucial - if somehow no significant number of new cases are discovered both in and outside China, then maybe we are out of the woods. But the way it has  been popping up here and there, and already with some international clusters (France/UK, Singapore, Vietnam) is disturbing.
And the cruise ship in itself should be a warning sign about the contagiousness (is this a word?) of the virus. One infected person left the ship 3 weeks ago, 10 were discovered when the ship was quarantined, and still it grew to more than 200 including one of those persons in charge of the quarantine. This epidemic appears to be really tough to stop.

Edit: the latest number for the Diamond Princess is 219.

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #805 on: February 13, 2020, 03:17:21 PM »
Thanks, be cause.
What would the figures be without the cruise ship?
Maybe someone posted that and I missed it? I’m getting data overload on this topic.

The numbers provide a false sense of certainty.  The diagnostic test is slow, expensive, and finicky.  Central authorities have a potent incentive to produce smaller numbers of positive results.  Local authorities have a potent incentive to avoid doing much testing.  In the absence of effective treatment, patients have a potent incentive to avoid being tested.

We won't be *capable* of getting good data until every clinic can do rapid testing on-site, and offer treatment right away.  That's months away.

A rough gauge might be perhaps the anomalously increased numbers of hospital admissions for pneumonia.  That's complicated by the seasonal increase in other respiratory viruses.  The US is currently in the midst of a second wave of influenza (the first wave was influenza B/Victoria, the current wave is influenza A/H1N1).

By the time we get good, reliable data for most areas of the world, the coronavirus will likely be ubiquitous.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #806 on: February 13, 2020, 03:26:25 PM »
I may be wrong, but tropics are usually good habitats for pathogens probably because of high humidity all year round.

It's the higher latitudes that see outbreaks during cold and wet months and less activity during summer.
There is an interesting U shaped curve for virus and bacteria viability from a recent paper. It is paywalled, but the abstract is pretty comprehensive.  There is also a NIH paper from 2008, showing how the lipid shell making up the outer wall of a virus hardens at lower temperature, making it much more stable. So though I hate to say it, the orange idiot is right about the spring reducing transmission.
Quote
Humidity-Dependent Decay of Viruses, but Not Bacteria, in Aerosols and Droplets Follows Disinfection Kinetics
Kaisen LinLinsey C. Marr*
The transmission of some infectious diseases requires that pathogens can survive (i.e., remain infectious) in the environment, outside the host. Relative humidity (RH) is known to affect the survival of some microorganisms in the environment; however, the mechanism underlying the relationship has not been explained, particularly for viruses. We investigated the effects of RH on the viability of bacteria and viruses in both suspended aerosols and stationary droplets using traditional culture-based approaches. Results showed that viability of bacteria generally decreased with decreasing RH. Viruses survived well at RHs lower than 33% and at 100%, whereas their viability was reduced at intermediate RHs. We then explored the evaporation rate of droplets consisting of culture media and the resulting changes in solute concentrations over time; as water evaporates from the droplets, solutes such as sodium chloride in the media become more concentrated. Based on the results, we suggest that inactivation of bacteria is influenced by osmotic pressure resulting from elevated concentrations of salts as droplets evaporate. We propose that the inactivation of viruses is governed by the cumulative dose of solutes or the product of concentration and time, as in disinfection kinetics. These findings emphasize that evaporation kinetics play a role in modulating the survival of microorganisms in droplets.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 03:34:40 PM by solartim27 »
FNORD

kassy

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #807 on: February 13, 2020, 03:26:57 PM »
For the ship i wonder about the crew. The was an article above describing how passengers would be in cabins but the crew are all huddled up. This cannot help.

No breakdown in crew / passenger cases i guess?

In general i think we are catching the easy to catch cases but we are not testing everyone who has no or very mild symptoms (and is thus not reporting).

Here in Europe/NL it is full on flu season so that does not help.

ETA: Thanks for that quote and the graphic solartim27! This has been a question for so many years. :)
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crandles

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #808 on: February 13, 2020, 03:29:17 PM »
8 days ago there were 23746 confirmed cases in mainland China having increased 4078 that day.

8 days later 59656 confirmed cases. Over this period that is on average 4489 cases per day. Yes this is an increase over that 4078, but it isn't a huge increase.

They probably haven't gone back to the same criteria for identifying confirmed cases so such a comparison isn't likely to be ideal, but maybe better than nothing for a quick assessment of whether the lockdowns are working to stop spread accelerating.


A different approach might be to look at suspected new cases down to 2807 per day while cures have grown to 1431 and deaths to 254. A little bit more of a fall in new suspected cases and a bit more growth of cures and deaths and we might reach a maximum of currently existing cases. Of course this may only be a local maximum as Chinas lockdowns get on top of situation only for spread of undetected cases in less developed countries to become widespread such that higher levels are reached later.

FrostKing70

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #809 on: February 13, 2020, 04:18:59 PM »
I am seeing reports of cases in Singapore, which is currently in the 80s and 90's F.   Does that change the likelihood the virus will continue past April in the Northern Hemisphere?

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #810 on: February 13, 2020, 04:48:01 PM »

There is an interesting U shaped curve for virus and bacteria viability from a recent paper. It is paywalled, but the abstract is pretty comprehensive.  There is also a NIH paper from 2008, showing how the lipid shell making up the outer wall of a virus hardens at lower temperature, making it much more stable. 

There have been many hypotheses proposed over many decades to explain why various seasonal epidemics happen during different seasons.  I suspect the viability of isolated viral particles plays a very small role.  My own view is that spread is mostly determined by people being in proximity with each other.  In good weather, people disperse.  In bad weather, people congregate. 

If an infected person sneezes into his hand and then shakes your hand or shares some implement with you, it doesn't really matter what the ambient humidity or temperature is.

Another hypothesis is that vitamin D levels fall in the winter (or monsoon season, in the tropics), making populations more susceptible.  But epidemiologically, it's very hard to separate effects of populations having falling vitamin D levels from less sun, when they're also congregating indoors.  Which factor is more important?  How would one design a study to separate the possibilities?

Unknowns and uncertainties abound.

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #811 on: February 13, 2020, 05:18:17 PM »
^ Agreed Steve

IMO risk of catching this virus seems to be orders of magnitude higher 'indoors' rather than 'outdoors'. The only real variable indoors may be relative humidity.

Indoors

- constant 65-75°F (18-24°C)
- 30-50% Relative Humidity
- limited air exchanges
- recirculation of infected micro droplets in air
- no exposure to direct sunlight (no UV) - UV destroys virus/bacteria relatively quickly upon exposure
- higher likelihood of close social distance
- many surfaces in easy reach

Outdoors

- wide temperature swings
- 10-100% Relative Humidity
- wind
- rain
- direct sunlight - UV exposure

-----------------------------

Disease Reservoir

Smartphones are among the dirtiest items people own. Various scientific studies have found that smartphones contain more germs than toilet seats. And are often held up to eyes, noses and lips – key points for the coronavirus to enter the body.

... “Because people are always carrying their cell phones even in situations where they would normally wash their hands before doing anything, cell phones do tend to get pretty gross,” says Emily Martin, assistant professor of epidemiology at the University of Michigan School of Public Health. Research has varied on just how many germs are crawling on the average cell phone, but a recent study found more than 17,000 bacterial gene copies on the phones of high school students. Scientists at the University of Arizona have found that cell phones carry 10 times more bacteria than most toilet seats.

High level bacterial contamination of secondary school students’ mobile phones
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5466825/

One of the worst places to use your phone is in the bathroom. When toilets flush, they spread germs everywhere, which is how phones end up with fecal bacteria like E. coli. “Taking a cell phone into the bathroom and then leaving with it is kind of like going in, not washing your hands and then coming back out,” ... “It’s the same level of concern.”

Fecal matter can be found on 1 out of every 6 smartphones, according to a 2011 study done by researchers at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

Contamination of UK mobile phones and hands revealed
https://www.lshtm.ac.uk/newsevents/news/2011/mobilephones.html

---------------------------------

Coronavirus: pathogens linger in toilet for hours if you flush without closing lid – and some may still sneak through even if it is down, Hong Kong study finds
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3050502/coronavirus-hong-kong-study-shows-pathogens-can

Polluted droplets can follow air flow and be carried to other rooms in a home

Running exhaust fan for 15 minutes will remove vast majority of airborne pathogens, study leader says

A toilet flush can release up to 80,000 polluted droplets and leave them suspended a metre in the air for hours if the lid is left up, a new study has found.

The findings, released by City University’s Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering on Thursday, also revealed smaller bacteria are even more likely to become airborne and transmitted into the surrounding area via droplets produced in flushing. Smaller agents still, such as the deadly coronavirus now confronting Hong Kong, may also spread through the water particles.

Earlier this month, Shanghai’s health commission classified aerosol transmission, which occurs when tiny particles or droplets of the virus suspended in the air are inhaled, as a way of contracting Covid-19.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 06:00:22 PM by vox_mundi »
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #812 on: February 13, 2020, 05:34:38 PM »
China’s Huanggang to Seal Apartments as It Tightens Virus Control Measures
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/13/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

China’s city of Huanggang (Population: 7.4 Million), near the epicentre of the outbreak of the coronavirus, said that starting from Friday it would tighten epidemic control measures including sealing residential complexes and only allowing essential vehicles on roads. Food and the delivery of other essential goods will be arranged by designated personnel, the city said in a statement.

------------------------------------

Hubei Province Extends Work Shutdown Again
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/13/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-hubei.html

Hubei, the Chinese province hardest hit by the virus, extended shutdowns in the region, telling businesses to not resume work before Feb. 21. Authorities also said that school reopenings have been postponed, but did not specify a date.

-------------------------------------

China’s Military Sends More Medical Personnel to Hubei
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/13/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-hubei.html

China’s military is sending 2,600 additional medical personnel to Hubei to help primarily with virus control efforts in Wuhan, state news broadcaster CCTV said Thursday.

The first batch of 1,400 personnel arrived in Wuhan on Thursday, the report said, adding the military has dispatched a total of three batches of more than 4,000 medical personnel.

--------------------------------

Hong Kong Extends School Closures for Third Time
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/13/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-hubei.html

Hong Kong extended a suspension of schools for the third time since the Lunar New Year, with the exact date of resumption still unconfirmed.

----------------------------------



-----------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #813 on: February 13, 2020, 05:42:10 PM »
------------------------



Animal testing underway in global search for vaccine to prevent coronavirus infections

------------------------

A Chinese Drugmaker Has Started Mass-Producing an Experimental Drug for COVID-19
https://time.com/5782633/covid-19-drug-remdesivir-china/

Suzhou-based BrightGene Bio-Medical Technology said in a statement filed to the Shanghai Stock Exchange on Tuesday night that it has developed the technology to synthesize the active pharmaceutical ingredients of remdesivir, Gilead’s drug that is a leading candidate to treat the highly-infectious virus that’s killed more than 1,000 people. The drug isn’t licensed or approved anywhere in the world yet.

While BrightGene said that it intends to license the drug from Gilead, its move to start manufacturing at this early stage is highly unusual and a potential infringement of the American company’s intellectual property. It comes a week after Chinese researchers filed an application to patent the drug to treat the new coronavirus, a bid that would give China sway over the global use of the therapy to fight the outbreak.

------------------------

San Diego Lab Discovers Potential COVID-19 Vaccine in 3 Hours
https://www.cbs8.com/amp/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-vaccine-san-diego/509-e18e37f6-347c-4b08-ad33-910968abb04f

Inovio Pharmaceuticals created a vaccine that is going through pre-clinical trials.

When Chinese scientists released the genetic sequence on Jan. 9, Inovio researchers got to work immediately and within 3 hours they had a vaccine for coronavirus, or COVID-19 as it is now being referred to.

"We have an algorithm which we designed, and we put the DNA sequence into our algorithm and came up with the vaccine in that short amount of time," said Dr. Smith.

The vaccine has been tested on mice and guinea pigs. It will next be tried on a group of human patients.

Scientists hope the vaccine will work like a piece of biological software. In other words, the vaccine will give the human body instructions to create the proper attack in the form of T-cells and antibodies against COVID-19.

If all goes as planned, the vaccine could be made available to the public by early this summer - which would be a record time frame for Inovio Pharmaceuticals.

--------------------------------

US Dependence On China for Pharmaceutical Ingredients Will Hinder Outbreak Response, Lawmakers Are Told
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050349/coronavirus-us-dependence-china-pharmaceutical-ingredients-will

The United States’ ability to respond to an epidemic within its borders is critically hampered by its reliance on China for pharmaceutical products and insufficient funding for preparedness, former health officials warned on Wednesday.

The assessment came amid the growing spread of the deadly coronavirus that emerged in China’s Hubei province, and just days after US President Donald Trump’s administration proposed significant cuts to the health agencies charged with leading the response to the contagion.

US drug companies rely heavily on China as a supplier of raw materials that go into the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), said Scott Gottlieb, former head of the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

“In many cases China is the sole source of that material,” Gottlieb, who led the FDA for two years under Trump, said during a hearing on Capitol Hill.

At a time when China would be focusing its production on domestic demand rather than international export, and amid wide scale disruption to industry across the country caused by the coronavirus outbreak, Gottlieb said the contagion had exposed “a critical choke point in the supply chain for pharmaceuticals”.

Beyond pharmaceuticals, vulnerabilities in the supply chain could also affect the flow of health care provisions like gloves, masks and materials used in patient isolation
, said Julie Gerberding, former head of the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Luciana Borio, who led medical and biodefence preparedness in Trump’s National Security Council (NSC) until 2019, said the US had failed to protect the supply of essential medicine and medical equipment. “That needs to change going forward,” she said.

The former officials were testifying before the Senate homeland security and governmental affairs committee, the upper chamber’s chief oversight body.

As was the case at a House of Representatives hearing about the coronavirus outbreak last week, administration officials declined to testify before the panel, disappointing committee members of both parties.

The hearing came as lawmakers were grappling with the Trump administration budget plan that proposes sweeping cuts to areas including health, scientific research and the environment. ...

Senator Chris Murphy, Democrat of Connecticut, last week urged the administration to reinstate the epidemic preparedness directorate “before this turns into a full-blown crisis”, calling the temporary task force handling the White House response to the coronavirus “simply insufficient”.

-------------------------------

Indian Generic Drugmakers May Face Supply Shortages from China If Coronavirus Drags On
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/13/reuters-america-update-1-indian-generic-drugmakers-may-face-supply-shortages-from-china-if-coronavirus-drags-on.html

... An extended outbreak that limits the volume of active ingredients and drugs available for export from China could lead to drug shortages and price increases, particularly in the United States - where prices are subject to market forces - according to rating agency Moody’s.

India supplies nearly a third of medicines sold in the United States, the world’s largest and most lucrative healthcare market.

Daara Patel, secretary general of the Indian Drug Manufacturers Association, which represents over 900 drug producers, said he expects supplies to be disrupted by April.

Patel said vitamins and antibiotics are likely to be among the hardest hit as India is a major global producer of both.

« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 08:08:39 PM by vox_mundi »
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vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #814 on: February 13, 2020, 06:00:59 PM »
CDC Confirms 15th US Case in Evacuee Under Quarantine at Texas Military Base
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/13/coronavirus-latest-updates.html
 
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention confirmed a 15th case in the U.S., a recent evacuee from Wuhan who was quarantined at the Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland in Texas. The U.S. evacuated roughly 800 Americans from Wuhan, more than 600 of which remain under quarantine at military facilities across the nation. Two other evacuees at a Marine Corps base near San Diego, California also have COVID-19, the CDC said Wednesday. “There will likely be additional cases in the coming days and weeks, including among other people recently returned from Wuhan,” the CDC said.

------------------------------

14th Coronavirus Case in US Confirmed
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/13/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-hubei.html

The CDC confirmed a new case in California, taking the total number of cases in the U.S. to 14. The patient is among a group under quarantine after they returned to the U.S. on a chartered flight from Hubei.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #815 on: February 13, 2020, 06:05:24 PM »
For the ship i wonder about the crew. The was an article above describing how passengers would be in cabins but the crew are all huddled up. This cannot help.

No breakdown in crew / passenger cases i guess? ...

Coronavirus has now infected at least 219 people, including 15 crew members, and at least one quarantine officer.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/diamond-princess-crew-desperate-virus-tightens-grip-200211035044117.html

Among those crew who are infected, at least 11 of them are Filipinos, according to the Philippine government, raising alarm among family members back home, as well as fellow crew members who continue to work under quarantine conditions.

The nationalities of at least four other sick crew members remained unknown as of Thursday.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #816 on: February 13, 2020, 06:35:27 PM »
Keep Close Eye on Coronavirus in Singapore
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/publichealth/84861

Never mind China; how the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak progresses in Singapore is key to understanding the danger to the rest of the world, said Scott Gottlieb, MD, at a Senate committee hearing.

"So far, in Singapore with 50 cases identified... eight are in the ICU.
That's deeply concerning to me," said Gottlieb, the former FDA commissioner and now a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, at a Senate Committee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs hearing Wednesday.

Of particular importance is how many of those infected with the virus develop severe disease, he said.

Local transmission now appears to be established in Singapore, the densely populated tropical city-nation at the tip of the Malaysian peninsula.

The outbreak's advancement in Singapore during a time of warm weather (currently 80°F) is especially alarming, he said, because summer weather would ordinarily be "a backstop" against coronavirus transmission.

... he said that Singapore has done "exquisite reporting" of novel coronavirus cases, "I don't trust the reporting in China," as it has included only the most severe cases, in part because of limited testing capacity. This underreporting could lead to a "skewed view of the case fatality rate."

Gottlieb said he is worried that the novel virus could reflect a "sweet spot" between being efficient enough for quick transmission, and virulent enough over a large population "that it causes a lot of death and disease."

Mortality with the novel coronavirus has been put at about 2%, but the denominator in that calculation has been China's case counts that don't include individuals with mild infections. Yet even a "case fatality rate of 0.2 or 0.5 [percent] could be catastrophic if this is highly, highly contagious and spreads around the world," Gottlieb said.

Already he said he suspects there may be cases in Malaysia and parts of Africa that have not yet been identified.

"And what's happening here? There's probably spread that we're just not detecting yet," Gottlieb said. He said current policies on novel coronavirus screening, with their focus on travel to China, are too narrow.

Modeling from the U.K. suggests that for every identified case there are three or four that haven't been identified, he added.

... this does appear to be a very virulent virus with a fatality rate that's higher than what we've seen with seasonal influenza. Given that situation, we have to be concerned that even if most people aren't very ill, there is going to be a significant impact on the overall population,"

... One significant concern described by panelists was the lack of "surge capacity" in the U.S. healthcare system -- the ability to handle sudden large increases in patient loads -- and the absence of funding to prepare for emergencies.

"Even though we don't know how lethal this virus is, it's pretty clear that it's sufficiently lethal to stress severely the healthcare systems, because of the lack of surge capacity we have to take care of [a] large influx of patients with acute and serious respiratory diseases," Luciana Borio, MD, former director for medical and biodefense preparedness at the National Security Council from 2017 to 2019, told the committee.


Gerberding added that the healthcare system and the government undervalue health promotion and disease prevention: "It's complacency, crisis, complacency."

... In addition, he warned of the possibility of disruptions in medical supplies in the coming months. Hubei province is a major manufacturing center for pharmaceutical ingredients, including some used in antibiotics production -- and 80% of antibiotics used in the U.S. comes from China, he testified. Medical devices also rely heavily on Chinese components, he said.

Most of the manufacturers he's spoken with have 1 to 3 months or "a little bit more inventory" on hand, Gottlieb told MedPage Today after the hearing.


-------------------------------

Hunt On for 'Patient Zero' Who Spread Coronavirus Globally from Singapore
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-singapore-meeting-idUSKBN2071F5

Experts say finding this so-called “patient zero” is critical for tracing all those potentially exposed to infection and containing the outbreak, but as time passes, the harder it becomes.

... Fisher and other experts have compared the Singapore meeting to another so-called “super-spreading” incident at a Hong Kong hotel in 2003 where a sick Chinese doctor spread Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome around the world.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #817 on: February 13, 2020, 06:37:09 PM »
https://headtopics.com/images/2020/2/11/malaysiakini/coronavirus-china-reported-108-new-coronavirus-deaths-on-feb-10-the-highest-daily-increase-so-far-an-1227087879538532353.webp

the graph above suggests that until yesterday the numbers of dead reported were managed to fit the graph rather than having any relation to reality . If yesterday's leap of 242 was a more accurate daily count , then I would suggest we are missing a lot of actually dead from the recent count .. in excess of 500 , likely in excess of 1000 . Will we have a retrofit to another managed graph or will the WHO want their name on yet more falsified data ? .. b.c.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 06:44:46 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #818 on: February 13, 2020, 07:06:31 PM »
... Will we have a retrofit to another managed graph or will the WHO want their name on yet more falsified data ? .. b.c.

WHO picks Door #2



--------------------------------

Coronavirus: No Change In Outbreak Despite China Spike, WHO Says
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51495484

Coronavirus cases are not rising dramatically outside China despite a spike in Hubei province, the World Health Organization (WHO) says.

The only exception was on a cruise liner docked in Japan, where 44 new cases were reported, bringing the total there to 218.

There was also no major shift in the coronavirus's pattern of mortality or severity, according to the WHO.

Hubei recorded 242 deaths on Wednesday, the deadliest day of the outbreak.


There was also a huge increase in cases, with 14,840 people diagnosed but most of this was down to Hubei using a broader definition to diagnose people, said Mike Ryan, head of WHO's health emergencies programme.

"This does not represent a significant change in the trajectory of the outbreak," he said.



Can we trust the numbers?

Just about everyone who's been following China's official coronavirus numbers has been able to see that they have been incomplete. Government officials know this too. There's no way they've accounted for everybody infected. How could they?

But at least we had what appeared to be a trend. We could observe the pattern to try and estimate the trajectory of outbreak. Now that's gone too.



https://twitter.com/S_Rabinovitch/status/1227801042215006209?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Change in Hubei case reporting has made it next to impossible to track its coronavirus trend.

Here is what new confirmed cases would have looked like according to the old method (testing) vs new method (clinical diagnosis). On old basis it would have been another decline today.



alternately ...

https://twitter.com/GlennLuk/status/1227833661720088576

« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 08:47:17 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #819 on: February 13, 2020, 07:12:08 PM »
Cheers vox .. your little bbc graph looks like a rather tall chimney was belatedly added to the incinerator/crematorium . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #820 on: February 13, 2020, 07:35:20 PM »
^ b.c. - I think, even the BBC is bewildered  :o

----------------------------------------------------

White House Does Not Have ‘High Confidence’ In China’s Coronavirus Data
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/13/white-house-does-not-have-high-confidence-in-chinas-coronavirus-information-official-says.html

The United States does “not have high confidence in the information coming out of China” regarding the count of coronavirus cases, a senior administration official told CNBC’s Eamon Javers.

Reuters reported that National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow also said on Thursday that there does not appear to be good transparency by China regarding the outbreak.

Speaking to reporters at the White House, National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said the Trump administration had thought there was better transparency than there has turned out to be. “We don’t know if it’s contained in China. We thought they were tailing off in their headcount. It turns out that might not be the case,” Kudlow said.

“These numbers are jumping around … there was some surprise,” he added.

(... that's why you should confer with subject matter experts - silly)

In an interview last week with CNBC, Vice President Mike Pence had praised China’s transparency.

(Lick Spittle) Vice President Mike Pence said Beijing has demonstrated “an unprecedented level of transparency” with world health officials in dealing with the new, fast-spreading coronavirus.

meanwhile ...

« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 01:03:15 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #821 on: February 13, 2020, 07:46:41 PM »
Multiple People Die of Coronavirus Near North Korea
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/02/13/Multiple-people-die-of-coronavirus-near-North-Korea/4251581532430/

Feb. 12 (UPI) -- A Chinese province bordering North Korea reported its first death from the coronavirus, following multiple deaths confirmed in northeastern China.

China's Shenyang Daily reported a 87-year-old man in Liaoning province died at a hospital in Huludao, a coastal prefecture-level city in the southwest, while undergoing treatment.

Other Chinese provinces facing North Korea have reported deaths. Jilin Province, known for its ethnic Korean-Chinese population, reported its first death Feb. 6.

Heilongjiang Province has also reported nine deaths. Patients were in their 60s, 70s and 80s, the report says.

North Korea has denied claims the country has confirmed patients, or any deaths resulting from the deadly outbreak that has claimed more than 1,300 lives in neighboring China.

North Korea propaganda service Meari said last week trains that run between China and North Korea are disinfected daily.

On Thursday, Meari claimed the regime's Rakrang Bonghwa Cloth Factory manufactured 45,000 face masks in two days, from Feb. 3 to 4.

Korean Workers' Party Rodong Sinmun reported Thursday the state has developed a new chlorine dioxide disinfectant after "10 trials."

North Korea declared a state of emergency over the outbreak in January.

----------------------------------------------

The Wuhan Coronavirus Has Reportedly Spread to North Korea. Experts Say the Country Isn't Equipped to Fight It.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-wuhan-coronavirus-has-reportedly-spread-to-north-korea-experts-say-the-country-isnt-equipped-to-fight-it/ar-BBZXSxi

Chosun Ilbo, one of South Korea's largest newspapers, reported that there were at least two suspected cases of the illness in Sinuiju, DPRK. Meanwhile, Daily North Korea reported that there as many as five have died due to the novel virus in the same city. Additionally, coronavirus cases have been confirmed in Japan and South Korea.

Many suspect the coronavirus could have crossed the 880-mile border between China and North Korea, a "porous" border where smugglers often help North Korean defectors escape and exchange goods, according to Chosun Ilbo. On January 30, a Chinese region near the North Korean border reported its first coronavirus case, according to UPI.

North Korea does more than 90 per cent of its trade with China.

If the coronavirus were to spread within the borders of North Korea, experts say, its healthcare system would likely not be equipped to fight it.

Although the North Korean government has asserted that "everyone in the DPRK receives medical service of all categories equally, practically and free of charge," a 2010 Amnesty International report called the country's health care system "crumbling." The organization found chronic shortages of medicines and medical supplies and decreased access to medical facilities in rural areas.

... the country likely doesn't have enough masks and protective clothing to protect its citizens and wouldn't have the laboratory equipment, including chemicals and reagents to test for the virus.

Kim Jong Un's cancellation of an annual parade - often a huge military spectacle reported on by state-run media - without explanation has only flared suspicions that there are coronavirus infections in the country. However, experts say, it may be a public health measure to prevent infection.

More than 40 per cent of the population in North Korea, officially known as the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), suffers from undernourishment, according to UN estimates.

"People died from the secondary complication of pneumonia. You have to have antibiotics. I doubt that they have antibiotics to treat such cases," Shafik added. Although North Korea has the factories to produce the necessary medicine and vaccines to treat the country, Shafik says international sanctions have stifled medical progress in the country.

"They cannot produce the medicine they need because of the sanctions. Nothing new has come to the country to updates their medicine or technology," Shafik told Insider. "What even is the best doctor without equipment?"

"There's a massive disparity of its medical treatments in hospitals. They have a caste system. People of a higher caste can receive better medical treatment than people in the lower caste,"

------------------------------------

India Has Almost 16,000 Under Surveillance (5:24 p.m. HK)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-12/u-s-disease-team-still-in-limbo-deaths-at-1-115-virus-update

A community surveillance program is underway across 34 Indian states and union territories, Indian government said. India is screening passengers at 21 airports, international seaports and border crossings.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2020, 08:49:06 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #822 on: February 13, 2020, 09:44:09 PM »
Japan Records First Coronavirus Death, Two Taxi Drivers Test Positive
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-japan-ship-idUSKBN20708N

TOKYO (Reuters) - A woman has died from the coronavirus in Japan, the first such death in the country since the epidemic spread from China, the health minister said on Thursday.

Two taxi drivers, one of them in the capital Tokyo, have also tested positive, raising the possibility that it could be passed on through their passengers.

... The woman fell ill in January but only later showed symptoms of pneumonia and was hospitalised, then transferred to another hospital when her condition worsened.

Her infection with the coronavirus confirmed after her death, Kato said. The route of contagion was being investigated.

The minister also confirmed that a Tokyo taxi driver in his 70s had tested positive for the virus, along with a doctor in central Japan. A third person, also a taxi driver, in Chiba just east of Tokyo has also tested positive.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #823 on: February 14, 2020, 12:41:56 AM »
It's going to be an interesting year ...

--------------------------------

US Military Initiates “Global Campaign Plan For Pandemic”
https://www.airforcetimes.com/news/your-military/2020/02/13/us-military-prepping-for-coronavirus-pandemic/

U.S. Northern Command is executing plans to prepare for a potential pandemic of the novel coronavirus, now called COVID19, according to Navy and Marine Corps service-wide messages issued this week.

An executive order issued by the Joint Staff and approved by Defense Secretary Mark Esper this month directed Northern Command and geographic combatant commanders to initiate pandemic plans, which include ordering commanders to prepare for widespread outbreaks and confining service members with a history of travel to China.

The Navy and Marine Corps messages, issued Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, reference an executive order directing U.S. Northern Command to implement the Department of Defense Global Campaign plan for Pandemic Influenza and Infectious Diseases 3551-13.

The document serves as the Pentagon’s blueprint for planning and preparing for widespread dispersion of influenza and previously unknown diseases.

DoD 3551-13 calls for preparing for a pandemic and ensuring open lines of communication in the community, diseases surveillance and detection, response and containment.

U.S. Northern Command said Wednesday it was directed the Joint Staff Feb. 1 to commence “prudent planning” in their assigned role synchronizing the department’s plans for pandemic flu and disease.

https://www.marines.mil/News/Messages/Messages-Display/Article/2081806/us-marine-corps-disease-containment-preparedness-planning-guidance-for-2019-nov/

... According to the Marine Corps message MARADMIN 082/20, commanders are to review their disease containment plans and take “preparatory and precautionary actions” to protect service members, installations and ships.

This includes ensuring that the plans contain procedures for “response, isolation, quarantine, restriction of movement and community based intervention” as well as developing measures to contain and treat those possibly exposed.

The Marine Corps’ mission, according to the message, is to “prepare for potential outbreaks of [COVID19]. The service must “mitigate, respond, and recover from the effects in order to maintain force readiness.”

The Air Force does not publicly disclose its service-wide messages.

Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said Monday that the likelihood of more cases being diagnosed in the U.S. of COVID19 is high.

---------------------------------

Unclassified: https://www.public.navy.mil/bupers-npc/reference/messages/Documents/NAVADMINS/NAV2020/NAV20033.txt

Previous DoD Plan: https://www.governmentattic.org/8docs/NORTHCON_CONPLAN_3551-09_2009.pdf

-----------------------------

Insurers Rush To Strip Coronavirus From Event-Cancellation Coverage
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-china-health-insurance-cancellations/insurers-rush-to-strip-coronavirus-from-event-cancellation-cover-idUKKBN2071O2

Businesses looking to buy cancellation insurance for events around the world will not be able to get coverage for the new coronavirus outbreak, industry sources said, as insurers rush to exclude the epidemic from their policies.

The Shanghai Grand Prix and the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona are among sporting events and major conferences cancelled as a result of the virus, which has claimed over 1,300 lives, mainly in China.

Organisers of events which already have epidemic coverage will be able to claim for cancellation due to the coronavirus, provided the event was due to take place in a country subject to travel bans or limits on public gatherings, industry sources say.

But for those planning music, sporting or trade events now, some of whom begin organising and buy the insurance up to two years in advance, there will be no protection.


Men in Black - You sorry little ingrates!

----------------------------------
« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 01:27:41 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #824 on: February 14, 2020, 12:48:23 AM »
silly advice of the day .. leave your nose hair where it is .. it is there for a reason and may just prevent infection some day you don't know .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #825 on: February 14, 2020, 01:26:47 AM »
Does air conditioning affect the end of the cold and flu season any?
I keep reading that that may be why it’s spreading in Singapore in spite of the climate there, but wouldn’t that mean the season never ends in developed countries? And I understand it does end even there.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #826 on: February 14, 2020, 03:44:34 AM »
Hubei Reports 4,823 New Cases
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/14/coronavirus-latest-updates-chinas-hubei.html

China's Hubei province reported an additional 116 deaths and 4,823 new confirmed cases as of the end of Feb. 13. Of the new cases, the government said that 3,095 were "clinically diagnosed."

Global = 64,429
Mainland China = 64,347
Suspected = 13,435
Severe/Critical = 8,030
Deaths = 1,491

-----------------------------------

CDC Director: Novel Coronavirus 'is Probably With Us Beyond This Season, Beyond This Year'
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/02/13/health/coronavirus-cdc-robert-redfield-gupta-intv/index.html

"This virus is probably with us beyond this season, beyond this year, and I think eventually the virus will find a foothold and we will get community-based transmission."

"The containment phase is really to give us more time. This virus will become a community virus at some point in time, this year or next year," Redfield said.

-----------------------------------

Supply Chain Disruptions Have Hit Businesses, Says American Chamber of Commerce
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/14/coronavirus-latest-updates-chinas-hubei.html

Gregory Gilligan, chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China said supply chain disruptions have hit members and that the organization is helping companies navigate different regulations in various parts of China.

-------------------------------------

Chickens Meant for China Are Being Rerouted Due to Outbreak
https://uk.reuters.com/article/china-health-chicken/update-1-coronavirus-reroutes-u-s-chicken-shipments-bound-for-china-idUKL1N2AE00F?feedType=RSS&feedName=consumerproducts-SP

Shipments of chicken from the U.S. to China are being diverted to ports in Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam due to the virus outbreak, according to Reuters, citing a U.S. poultry export trade group.

An estimated 300 to 400 refrigerated poultry containers - currently in transit - are being diverted.

This is due to the outbreak keeping people from coming back to work in China, leading to a slowdown in the unloading of products at Chinese ports, which have run out of space for refrigerated containers. Such containers must be plugged into power once offloaded, to keep frozen meat cold,  the USA Poultry & Egg Export Council told Reuters.

Frozen and refrigerated product is starting to spoil because of the lack of available power, a manager for a Los Angeles port terminal operator said.

U.S. poultry exporters are being told by freight, port and government officials that shipments of medical supplies and pork needed to bolster China’s reserves are being allowed in, Sumner said.

“Everything else is being considered not a priority and is not allowed entry,” he said. “China is basically shut down right now.”

----------------------------------

China’s Capital Shrouded in Air Pollution Despite Reduced Emissions From Coronavirus Economic Slowdown
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3050527/chinas-capital-shrouded-air-pollution-despite-reduced

Beijing’s air quality index (AQI) was pegged at 222 on Thursday afternoon, 22 points above the threshold for very unhealthy pollution, according to data from the Ministry of Ecology and Environment.

The United States Embassy said Beijing’s PM2.5 levels were as high as 240 micrograms per cubic metre on Thursday, nearly 10 times the World Health Organisation’s recommended level of 25.

The capital, which is home to 22 million people, has not resumed full economic activity following the Lunar New Year holiday due to the coronavirus.

“Even without car emissions, these industrial and coal-fired emissions are enough to plunge Beijing into consecutive days of severe pollution amid unfavourable weather,”



-----------------------------

Guangzhou Bans People From Dining Out In Restaurants

In a bid to curb the spread of the virus, China's Guangzhou city has banned people from going out to eat at restaurants. That ban was effective Feb. 12, as people came back to work this week after the extended Lunar New Year break.

Guangzhou is the capital of the manufacturing hub of Guangdong province, and is one of the largest cities in China.

----------------------------

Dalai Lama cancels all public events.
nytimes.com

The Dalai Lama has canceled all upcoming public events indefinitely because of the coronavirus outbreak, according to a schedule posted on his website.

“As a precautionary measure, in view of the coronavirus (Covid-19) outbreak, all engagements of His Holiness the Dalai Lama remain indefinitely postponed,” a statement says.

... The Dalai Lama’s office has also issued an appeal, urging Tibetans across the world to “collectively pray for the speedy resolution to the crisis and the wellbeing of humanity.”
« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 05:53:40 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #827 on: February 14, 2020, 08:02:11 AM »
Vox,

I suspect the indoor vs outdoor difference is primarily a crowding effect. People are closer together and the air is recirculated.

All,

The whole blame game thing is pointless. The disease does not care about economic systems, political views, or any of that. It may distinguish based on genetics, particularly the ACE2 genetics. That has little to nothing to do with race other than by accident of genetic history.

As is usual and expected, the government did not respond instantly. They seldom do. Few groups have ever adequately prepared for such things. Doing so requires large investments in time and energy. It is usual and expected that such investments do not last in the face of the absence of an actual threat recurring with force on a frequent basis.

The government also didn’t behave uniformly. This too is expected and entirely unsurprising.

What is surprising is how quickly, strongly and massively the government did respond when the basic parameters of the outbreak became clear. In highly developed society, the requirement of proof before action would stop adequate responses. Evidence based approaches may be useful in limited circumstances. These are not circumstances where those are useful. To the contrary, the nature of this disease are such that evidence based or economic approaches assure catastrophic death rates and massive spread of disease.

There remain questions and unknowns in lots of areas. This too is absolutely normal and expected.

In the face of these unknowns and questions fear, dread, hostility, hatred, racism, xenophobia, and all manner of unhelpful responses usually appear - just as they have here.

For a disease as rapidly spreading and highly fatal as this one, with a period of contagious transmission without obvious symptoms, it is frankly surprising that the Chinese government acted as well as they have to contain it. Had this started anywhere else in the world, it is safe to say that the disease would already have spread globally in massive numbers. I dare say that no other nation was ready to, or willing to take the kind of measures that China has.

Those measures haven’t been sufficient to the task. However, that they were as massively aggressive and as effective as they have been is truly surprising.

It was expected and entirely normal for a rapidly spreading unknown disease like this would outrun even the most aggressive systems. Human systems are not designed with excess capacity. Our economic systems argue for bare minimum capacities to maximize efficiency. In a crisis like this, within just a handful of generations the growth of those infected will always overwhelm the testing and treatment capability of the systems available.

When that first starts to happen, testing is one of the first things that breaks.

As a result, evidence based systems that require the results of those precious tests then also quickly break. With that failure, the basic parameters of the spread fail and falsely show the spread to be slowing. This failure is often silent. When it is corrected, the numbers jump. The history becomes much less useful. Panic ensues. It Is usual then for political leaders to try to calm fears by artificially holding down the numbers. To their great credit, the Chinese did not do that. Or at least it appears they did not do that.

It is quite possible that the epidemic is vastly larger than is evident. However, given Chinese efforts using financial incentives to get those who are sick into hospital, that does not appear at least to be the case. To the contrary.

What clearly is the case is that there are about 6 days worth of people infected who do not yet show symptoms, and who for several of those days are infective - out in society. With an exponential growth of between 15-20% a day still occurring, that suggests that there is a very large pool of people who carry the disease in society who are still spreading the disease. This isn’t anywhere near over yet.

As pressure builds to restart factories and supply chains, there will be added spread. It Is entirely unclear whether the Chinese will or even ever could be able to squash this pandemic.

Outside China is another story. The severity of the spread in China has been great enough to force other nations to take what would normally be draconian steps that epidemiologists would usually advise against - 14-28 day quarantines for all those entering from affected areas.

In another age, these would be entirely normal and expected. In our hyper connected free market world, such things are anathema.

But disease does not care about our passions or economic and social theories. it does what it does - period. And if our social and economic structures cannot adapt rapidly to stop it, they will instead contribute to its spread and devastation. It is vital to understand the problem on its own terms and not to allow our own biases to control our actions. Doing so is fatal.

In engineering there is a fundamental expression. It is most often used in the design of buildings, cars and other things. “Form Follows Function”. That applies here. The form of what we do cannot control. It must follow from the basics of the problem.

We cannot for example allow ourselves to say - oh, well - sick people have rights, and we cannot violate those rights. If they want to travel while sick, that is their business. Wrong!! Doing that assures widespread dissemination of disease and the fatal violation of millions of other people’s fundamental right to stay alive.

During times like these, we must as the Chinese have - impose what would otherwise be harsh restrictions. The shape of that has to be based on the parameters of the disease and assurance of stopping it in its tracks.

Now the question around the world is, has every other nation done that? Or have they for various reasons - failed. And if any of them fail, the likelihood of global spread increases. If India for example were to fail. The chance of global spread is nearly certain.

Even with extensive control in China, if the immunity conferred by having the disease is not lasting, it is likely that ultimately all of their actions will fail. The longer they can maintain reduction in the spread, the greater the chance that effective treatments will be found that may make the disease containable. And if we have 1.5-3 years, we might even have a successful antiviral vaccine for it.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #828 on: February 14, 2020, 08:12:55 AM »
race

Fun fact: There is no such thing with humans. We are all one of a kind.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #829 on: February 14, 2020, 08:22:17 AM »
截至 2020-02-13 21:32 全国数据统计
数据说明

55,713 现存确诊 +3,780  较昨日
10,109 现存疑似 +2,450  较昨日
  6,842 治愈 +1,196  较昨日
63,936 累计确诊 +5,097  较昨日
10,204 现存重症 +2,174  较昨日
  1,381 死亡 +121 较昨日

As of 2020-02-13 21:32 National Statistics
the data shows

55,713 Confirmed +3,780 compared to yesterday
10,109 Suspected +2,450 compared to yesterday
  6,842 Healed +1,196 compared to yesterday
63,936 Cumulative Diagnoses +5,097 compared to yesterday
10,204 Existing Severe +2,174 compared to yesterday
  1,381 Deaths +121 compared to yesterday

Based on the Cumulative diagnoses change and the daily death rate, and a fatality rate of 10%, this suggests that the daily growth ratio is 1.27. That is still an R of ~4.2

With a 4% death rate, the growth rate implied is still 9% (1.0908), which implies an R of ~1.68.

With a fatality rate of 12%, the growth rate is 31% per day (1.31), which implies an R of ~5.05

If the fraction of people who catch the disease is 85%, this implies R0s for these three cases of ~5, ~2, and ~6 respectively.

This disease spread is not under control.

Sam
« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 08:27:46 AM by Sam »

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #830 on: February 14, 2020, 08:24:55 AM »
race

Fun fact: There is no such thing with humans. We are all one of a kind.

You are indeed correct.

I used the term here in the more general sense that is used socially, where people make foolish distinctions based on the preponderance of unimportant minor attributes like hair color, nose shape, and pigmentation, or geographic location of birth.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #831 on: February 14, 2020, 08:54:09 AM »
For a disease as rapidly spreading and highly fatal as this one, with a period of contagious transmission without obvious symptoms, it is frankly surprising that the Chinese government acted as well as they have to contain it. Had this started anywhere else in the world, it is safe to say that the disease would already have spread globally in massive numbers. I dare say that no other nation was ready to, or willing to take the kind of measures that China has.

Those measures haven’t been sufficient to the task. However, that they were as massively aggressive and as effective as they have been is truly surprising.
Very well said Sam, your whole post. Thanks for sharing.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #832 on: February 14, 2020, 09:08:01 AM »
As the details of this article make clear, we need to throw out any assumptions about testing, hospitalization as a control for the disease, etc...

And this too is not at all surprising. This is a healthcare system and government acting under extreme stress fighting a severely dangerous newly emerged virus.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-13/here-s-what-it-s-like-to-survive-the-coronavirus-in-wuhan

Sam


blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #833 on: February 14, 2020, 09:36:47 AM »
I used the term here in the more general sense that is used socially, where people make foolish distinctions based on the preponderance of unimportant minor attributes like hair color, nose shape, and pigmentation, or geographic location of birth.

I knew you knew, Sam! :)

I just made it a habit pointing it out when i see the word. It's just a reflex by now. ;)

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #834 on: February 14, 2020, 09:50:52 AM »
China is now doing 77 clinical trials including both pharmaceuticals like remdesivir, and Chinese herbals.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-12/china-stages-clinical-trial-blitz-in-search-of-coronavirus-cure

One of those is Pneumonia Formula 1 (“肺炎1号方”). It apparently has shown good efficacy for folks with mild disease.

The formula is hard to track down. But one of the stories has a photo of the bag of herb mix. The rough translation is something like:

Toujiequwen Keli】 Lian Ti, Shan Ci Mushroom, Honeysuckle, Yellow, etc.  Toujiequwen Keli] Lianxiang, Shanci Mushroom, Quan Yinhua, Huang etc., Daqingtu,  etc.  "Functions Indications: 1 flow through the table, clearing heat and relieving products, nourishing qi and nourishing yin, pneumonia (mild) not infected with a new form of music [Usage and dosage] Oral, 2 bags at a time, 2 times a day, grid] 1g per bag  Every 1 gram is equivalent to 6.25e. 1 J2002004 [Date of production] 2020.02.07 [Valid until] 2020.08.06 Production of the Co., Ltd. of the Eighth People's Hospital] Lianyin, Shanci mushroom, honeysuckle, etc.  Sixteen flavors of leaves, etc., [functional indications] Vegetable wind permeable table, clearing heat and replenishing qi, and relieving crisp farmer (light therapy) infected with king's new coronavirus, resolving granules of Toujiequwen Keli] Lianxiang, Shanci mushroom, honeysuckle  , Huang Ling, Daye, etc. [Functions and Indications] Dispersing wind through the table, clearing heat and detoxifying, nourishing qi, and nourishing qi, for pneumonia of new infections (mild) (Usage and dosage) Oral, 2 bags at a time, 2 a day  Times] Each bag is 11g, each 1g is equivalent to 6.25g of decoction pieces. No.] J2002004 [production date] 2020.02.07 [valid until] 2020.08.06 Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. Guangzhou eighth commission  Made by Oriental Manufacturing Co., Ltd.

There are apparently 16 herbs in all included in the mix. I think the list above is:
Coptis Rhizome
King Trumpet mushroom
Yellow Honeysuckle (Lonicera)
Forsythia
Skullcap
Etc...

Which supports earlier reports of Honeysuckle, Forsythia and Scute (Scutellaria baicalensis) being effective at relieving symptoms.

As King Trumpet Mushroom is a saprophyte living on several different plants (certain thistles, fennel’s and members of the carrot family among others), it’s phytochemical makeup will be dependent on the plant it is living on. That isn’t specified here.

Sam
« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 09:57:51 AM by Sam »

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #835 on: February 14, 2020, 11:22:34 AM »
Great post Sam.

Quote
Fun fact: There is no such thing with humans. We are all one of a kind.

While I appreciate the feeling, and the feeling is much needed in these times, when speaking about medicine and the human body there are such things as race, gender, and age.

On virus and temperatures. One key piece of the puzzle is that even when warm temperatures lower the life of the virus ex vivo, inside the body the virus is quite happy at 100% humidity and 37C. I believe that might have something to do with the capsules of the virus and the human response to the environment.

But the fact that these bugs are seasonal is backed by empirical evidence even if the mechanism behind it are not clear.
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blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #836 on: February 14, 2020, 11:36:10 AM »
Archimid, you are wrong! Drop-dead wrong!

Ask your trusted biologist. Please don't spread scientifically disproven nazi shit.

There are NO different races in humans. Period!

be cause

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #837 on: February 14, 2020, 11:57:07 AM »
^^ race relations would be better elsewhere . ( esp. if there is no such thing  ) .. b.c.


 bugger .. deaf ears .. falling on ..
« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 01:24:07 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 + 1 =  ' if only we could have seen it coming ' ...

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #838 on: February 14, 2020, 11:58:55 AM »
Whenever I have this argument I like to point out at sickle cell anemia. It only affects people of African descent. There are many more diseases that are specific to the evolution of individuals of a particular descent and not general to the human race. Nurture has a lot to do with it too.

Sadly, dumb fearful people (read racists) everywhere take these differences as some sort of advantage or flaw, when they are merely slight differences.

I refuse to deny physical reality for the sake of political correctness.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #839 on: February 14, 2020, 12:12:14 PM »
This is not about PC. This is about scientific correctness.

Archimid, what's your biological background? Who are you knowing it better than the experts?

And why are you marching with the nazis on this?

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #840 on: February 14, 2020, 12:26:34 PM »
Someone said on FB that now the antivaxxers could show them being of superior breed and race to Hunan infected areas and help the doctors. lol. I don't think it's a good idea for some statistical trickery might show them to be less prone to get the virus.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #841 on: February 14, 2020, 12:29:18 PM »
Whenever I have this argument I like to point out at sickle cell anemia. It only affects people of African descent.
A hereditary disease that anybody gets with two copies of a recessive gene. Independent of race. It also occurs in India. And it would become prevalent in any other population where a single copy of the gene gives a better chance of reproducing when malaria is endemic.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #842 on: February 14, 2020, 12:39:07 PM »
Quote
This is not about PC. This is about scientific correctness.

Correct. And scientifically there are physiological differences in races that are related to both nature and nurture.

Quote
Archimid, what's your biological background? Who are you knowing it better than the experts?

I have worked as a microbiologist in a clinical laboratory, mostly bacteria, and parasites tho, no virology. Sadly, there is no expert that you can post that will say that races are equal when it comes to medicine. Not scientifically anyway. There are differences, small as they may be.

Quote
And why are you marching with the nazis on this?

Because I will not be pushed to say unscientific falsehoods for political correctness. All people are worth the same, regardless of race. However, when it comes to healthcare, the race is sometimes an important factor in determining disease and treatment.

Quote
A hereditary disease that anybody gets with two copied of a recessive gene. Independent of race. It also occurs in India. And it would in any other population where a single copy of the gene gives a better chance of reproducing when malaria is endemic.

Correct. The advantage the sickle cell gene gives fighting malaria becomes a disadvantage. This is an excellent example of how people from different regions of the world evolve slightly differently than the rest, resulting in racial differences. yet to you is an example that we are all equal?

I appreciate the discipline required to ignore your eyes for the sake of inclusion, but I'm unable to do that.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

bluice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #843 on: February 14, 2020, 12:44:28 PM »
It seems the economic effect will be huge and I wouldn't even rule out a global recession. China was supposed to open for business on Feb 10th but now this is postponed until Feb 17th. Will be interesting to see what, if anything, happens next week.

Even if the factories (slowly) start to resume work domestic trucking will become a bottleneck because of traffic restrictions, occasional cargo quarantine and shortage of drivers. Right now it estimated export cargo from China will reach pre-holiday volumes in the latter half of March.

And when the cargo eventually starts to reach ports and airports surge in volume will overwhelm available air and ocean capacity. Every day factories remain closed the situation becomes more difficult. There may be indirect consequences as well. The word on the street is container carriers combined losses are currently 350M per week. They were not in a great financial shape to begin with.

This won't be over soon and it won't be nice.

Very long-term effect will probably be corporations hedging supply chain risks by moving their sourcing to more locations than China, which will be strain to Chinese economy.

And then there's the ever-looming risk of virus outbreak re-expansion.


https://www.lloydsloadinglist.com/freight-directory/news/Coronavirus-may-impact-global-supply-chains-until-year-end/75986.htm

Coronavirus may impact global supply chains until year-end
 
Stuart Todd and Will Waters

Effects likely to be felt throughout much of 2020, even if the worst effects of the outbreak are reached soon, according to one leading US-based freight forwarding and third-party logistics provider


The impact of the coronavirus on global supply chains risks being felt throughout this year even if the worst effects of the outbreak are reached soon, according to a leading US-based freight forwarding and third-party logistics provider.

“Even if a factory only misses one week’s output, given the way production cycles are set up today there will be ripple effects over a longer period,” Brian Bourke, chief growth officer at SEKO Logistics, told Lloyd’s Loading List in an interview this week.

“We want to remain positive and hope that a return to normal service in China, so to speak, is just around the corner; but uncertainty continues to prevail. I think a week from now we’re likely to have a much better picture of how the situation is going to play out.”

Reflecting the fast-changing landscape, in the last 24 hours alone, China has released further information that suggests the spread and impact of the Covid-19 virus are far more serious than had previously been announced, with the number of people infected globally estimated at more than 60,000, although still mostly in mainland China. The death toll has now exceeded 1,300, although only two deaths are known to have occurred outside of mainland China.

Other freight forwarding sources have talked in terms of months to clear backlogs and replenish supply chains – once factory production gets back up to speed. Jens Lund, chief financial officer for DSV Panalpina, told Lloyd’s Loading List last week that once the impact of the deadly virus subsides and China reopens for business, the starvation of supply chains due to factory closures will be followed by a huge surge in freight demand, creating capacity shortages across all modes.

“Production is significantly reduced or standing still in many places in China, so we are moving less cargo, which of course is creating a lot of bottlenecks in global supply chains,” said Lund. But once production across restarts, freight will need to be transported by whatever mode has capacity.

“This represents a lot of work that has to be carried out at that point in time,” added Lund. “We have to find ways to basically manage this, and if we do this well, of course it means that there is an opportunity for us to regain some of the money that we lose initially.

“It will take a couple of months to clear that backlog. But, of course, the more time lapses the longer it takes.”

As reported yesterday, new data indicates that the current production and supply chain problems in China that have been caused by the new Coronavirus have accelerated a trend that was started by the trade war, in which importers are increasingly looking for alternative suppliers in the Asia Pacific regional, notably in southeast Asia.

Marketplace data from Freightos suggest that “among US importers, coronavirus has intensified a trend that was started by the trade war: importers are increasingly looking for regional suppliers other than China”, the digital freight rates specialist said. It said the share of freight rate searches by customers for countries other than China “has climbed to more than 17% so far this month, up from less than 8% a year ago”. And it has risen dramatically in just the last month from around 10% at the end of 2019 to more than 17% in early February.

Commenting on SEKO’s own business unit in China, Bourke said: “We’re coming out of an extended Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday break imposed by the authorities in a bid to contain the virus. Like many other firms located in China, we are now at the critical stage of having to demonstrate our ability of getting our staff back on the job and ensuring their health and wellness in the workplace.”

However, the Chicago-headquartered firm has been anything but inactive during the enforced lay-offs in China, Bourke revealed.

“For the past few weeks, there has been immense demand for medical supplies into China – masks, sanitizers, gowns, thermometers – which has kept us incredibly busy,” he explained. “When you think of all the companies in China, ourselves included, who have an obligation to provide such equipment for staff in a country of 1.4 billion inhabitants, you can get an idea of how significant a flow of air freight this represents; and it could continue for some time yet.

“It’s certainly compensating to a degree for the delay in the upturn in regular air cargo trade in and out of China and the cross-border e-commerce trade.”

Peak demand for medical supplies has coincided with airlines pulling passenger and all-cargo services serving China, he noted.

“There is a huge capacity imbalance at the moment, driving rates much higher than you’d typically see. Demand into China has been consistently high across the board because anyone who’s trying to get product into the country is using air freight to do it, and space is at a premium.”

Reports of hikes in rates of 300-400% into China were “probably not far off the mark; but there is a good deal of fluctuation from day to day, and we don’t know where they’ll be tomorrow.”

When the situation does return to normal in China, a surge in demand for capacity – initially focused on air freight – is inevitable, Bourke added. “The fear is this will be a disruptive period in the market with a scramble for space, prolonging the impact of the coronavirus on global supply chains until the end of the year.”

Air freight pricing sources suggested that some of the anecdotal reports of threefold and fourfold price increases reflected prices for capacity on charter freighters services and urgent and unplanned loads needing to access specific, limited capacity. Indeed, there have been some reports of fifteen-fold price rises for capacity to China from Dubai.

Peter Stallion, from Freight Investor Services, said that there was currently a lot of price volatility in the market, exacerbated by the current low volume levels, making any clear pricing trends difficult to establish. But he said there was “only one way” that prices will go in when demand picks up in the coming weeks once Chinese factories resume production – upwards, or certainly for ex-China capacity.

“We are starting to see it already,” he said, adding that he expected that with some factories reopening next week, there would likely follow a period of a couple of weeks while product builds up, followed by significant rises in air freight prices once these goods are ready to be shipped.

The latest figures from Amsterdam-based Clive Data Services, which produces the new dynamic load factor data for the air cargo market each month and is monitoring the latest flows of air cargo to see the impact of the coronavirus, are “especially revealing”. Data for the five weeks to 9 February shows that the reduction of airline capacity, compounded with the further decrease of air freight volumes out of China, has resulted in the dynamic load factor from Europe and Middle East to China and Hong Kong being higher than the westbound load factor – reversing a trend that has existed for the last 15-20 years of market analysis.

But Stallion said this directional switch mostly reflected the fact that most of the air cargo being moved at the moment between Europe, China and Hong Kong was going on chartered freighters, where the emphasis was on the outbound leg rather than the return leg. 

The latest update from Bolloré Logistics yesterday highlighted some of the challenges accessing air cargo capacity from Europe to China, noting: “Except for Chinese airlines, all airlines have suspended passenger flights to China until mid-March. AirBridgeCargo and Cargolux have also significantly reduced their regular schedule as well.

“Capacity is, therefore, under extreme tension and Europe-China freight rates are increasing sharply. The charter solutions offered by Bolloré Logistics successfully address this shortage.”

Bolloré said the “capacity tension” from Europe to China was now spread to Hong Kong and Taipei, where freight rates were also “rising strongly”.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #844 on: February 14, 2020, 12:54:34 PM »
It saddens me that you are even allowed to post here, Archimid.

Why don't you go to facebook where you find a lot of other likeminded nazi handmaidens.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #845 on: February 14, 2020, 01:01:28 PM »
Blumenkraft and Archimid, while I generally enjoy reading your posts, please take this off-topic and disruptive discussion to the off-topic off-topic thread. Or just avoid it altogether.
Sam's very insightful post mentioned the word race in passing, no offense meant, take a deep breath, let it pass.

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #846 on: February 14, 2020, 01:13:07 PM »
It saddens me that you think that. I understand tho. If you are a good white person you have been told as a fundamental truth that we are all equal. It is a very good way to avoid exerting racism on others and for most practical purposes true. Also, assuming we are all equal avoids a host of philosophical and ethical questions. We are indeed all equal when it comes to our potentials as human beings.

However, we have small differences that require specialized attention. Fools, cowards, and Nazis seize on those differences to claim an advantage or disadvantage. Medical personnel studies those differences to provide the best care possible.

This is the last I will say on the topic unless it becomes relevant to Coronavirus.

Do hospitals discriminate based on age by separating pediatric and geriatric patients? Do hospitals discriminate against gender by having gynecologists and urologists?

The clear answer is no. There are differences within human populations, including some differences based on "race". Medical professionals must identify any such differences to provide the best care possible to everyone, regardless of how politically incorrect it may be.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #847 on: February 14, 2020, 01:19:18 PM »
Sam, your postings on this thread are excellent. Thank you for your thoughtful contributions.

I come from Eastern European jewish genetic stock.  It is a gene pool that has had relatively little outcrossing and as such, has a high concentration of quite a few heritable diseases. When two Ashkenazi (Eastern European) jews plan to reproduce they often seek special genetic analysis to identify potentially detrimental recessive genes in the parents. That ain't nazi shit, that's a fact.  Certain gene frequencies differ among certain groups of humans, especially ones with a history of low outcrossing. These differences have proven effects on how different groups of people metabolize different foods and drugs for example.  That has nothing to do with the social construct of race, but it is a fact.

From Scientific American:
Does Race Exist?
If races are defined as genetically discrete groups, no. But researchers can use some genetic information to group individuals into clusters with medical relevance.

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #848 on: February 14, 2020, 02:23:02 PM »
Sam, I agree that China has done something that no other nation on Earth, with the possible exception of NK, could have done. It is what the Chinese government is saying that I am wondering about. They won’t allow the CDC in. They keep WHO on a tight leash. They have a history of misinformation in their propaganda. In addition to the practical problems you stated on the statistics there is, IMHO, a question about the CCP’s credibility.
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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #849 on: February 14, 2020, 02:25:04 PM »
https://imgur.com/a/DJF8Hzm#ncImrwh

The above image is being posted on reddit's live thread of Covid19.

https://www.reddit.com/live/14d816ty1ylvo/


For this attempt to compare the disease burden of influenza in the US to Covid19, I used "confirmed cases" in the data from Reddit as equivalent to "symptomatic cases" in the CDC influenza data. I also included more categories.

It seems to me that on top of being more infectious than typical influenza, this thing is indeed more dangerous. The Diamond Princess data should mature in a few days. Let's hope they receive the possible care.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.