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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
9 (14.3%)
10,000-100,000
8 (12.7%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (14.3%)
One to ten million
13 (20.6%)
Ten to a hundred million
12 (19%)
Hundred million to one billion
8 (12.7%)
Over a billion
4 (6.3%)

Total Members Voted: 63

Voting closes: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 40117 times)

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #850 on: February 14, 2020, 02:39:04 PM »
Sam, I agree that China has done something that no other nation on Earth, with the possible exception of NK, could have done. It is what the Chinese government is saying that I am wondering about. They won’t allow the CDC in. They keep WHO on a tight leash. They have a history of misinformation in their propaganda. In addition to the practical problems you stated on the statistics there is, IMHO, a question about the CCP’s credibility.

It was only to late. At the time they placed Wuhan in lock down. The virus was aleady spreading in Singapore. The doctor was right.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #851 on: February 14, 2020, 03:01:22 PM »
Quote
Home
 >
Articles
 > Is The Coronavirus (Covid-19) Now Unstoppable?
BLOG

Is The Coronavirus (Covid-19) Now Unstoppable?
New data suggests so
by Adam Taggart
Thursday, February 13, 2020, 11:54 PM
Oh, boy…the scientific research on covid-19 (the new name of the Wuhan coronavirus) continues to reveal what a huge challenge containing this virus is.

A new report from Los Alamos Labs calculates its R0 at between 4.7 to 6.6. That is massively contagious!



It’s little wonder then why we’re seeing more and more reports of doctors and health workers falling sick, despite using proper PPE and contamination protocol.

China, which bumped up the number of total infected within the country by 33% last night, is clearly facing a public health nightmare of epic proportion.

As we keep saying, we think the true reality on the ground there is even much worse than the official numbers we’re being given.

That said, China’s totalitarian approach of mandatory home quarantine for hundred of millions of people is likely the best way to fight a virus this contagious.

Will other countries, like the US, be able to enforce such controls on their populations if required to combat covid-19? Could they, even if they tried?

A full-blown pandemic looks increasingly unstoppable at this point.
https://www.peakprosperity.com/is-the-coronavirus-covid-19-now-unstoppable/
I know some think that Peak Prosperity is just a doomer site, but I want to draw attention to the report that is referenced here, as I do not recall seeing it on this thread (I may have missed it).
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #852 on: February 14, 2020, 03:08:17 PM »
Hindsight is 20/20 ...

-------------------------------

The Bane of Incomplete Information: Timeline and China's Changing Narrative On the Coronavirus Outbreak
https://qz.com/1801985/the-changing-coronavirus-outbreak-narrative-pushed-by-china/

-------------------------------

China Says 1,716 Health Workers Among Over 63,000 Infected by Novel Coronavirus
https://abcnews.go.com/International/china-1716-health-workers-63000-infected-coronavirus/story?id=68982408

Zeng Yixin, vice minister of China's National Health Commission, told reporters Friday that so far, 1,716 medical workers have tested positive for the newly discovered virus, known officially as COVID-19, and six of them have died. Most of the workers were in Hubei, the province at the center of the outbreak since the first coronavirus cases emerged in its capital, Wuhan, back in December.

Six had died as of Tuesday, with the number of infected staff rising, according to the Chinese health commission vice minister, Zeng Yixin,

How many more are "clinically diagnosed cases," who showed symptoms of the disease and were diagnosed through CT scans of the lungs, but haven't been tested yet?

---------------------------

How Can Indonesia Not Have Confirmed Any Cases Yet?
https://www.ibtimes.com/coronavirus-update-how-can-indonesia-not-have-confirmed-any-cases-yet-2921902

Indonesia, a nation of 260 million people, has yet to confirm even one virus case in the country, while other nations in the region, including Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines, have reported many infections.

... Researchers at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health warned last week that Indonesia should strengthen its outbreak surveillance and control measures, given that it conducted direct flights from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the virus.

The Harvard study calculated that Indonesia should have already confirmed up to 10 cases of the coronavirus by now.

Study: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.04.20020495v2

---------------------------

Singapore has reported nine new coronavirus cases – its biggest daily increase, according to the Straits Times. The new cases take Singapore’s virus tally to 67.

Six of the new cases are linked to the Grace Assembly of God church which is now the biggest cluster of cases in Singapore with 13 in total

----------------------------

One of the people diagnosed with coronavirus in the UK attended a central London conference last week with more than 200 delegates.

Here’s a picture of last week’s Bus Summit at the QEII Centre which was attended by someone who has since diagnosed been with coronavirus.

The case is not linked to the ninth patient with coronavirus in the UK - a woman from China.



-----------------------------

China’s National Health Commission has said it removed 108 deaths from its national total because it made a statistical error, according to Agence France-Presse.

(... c'mon guys, this is not supposed to be like voting in North Carolina)

----------------------------



----------------------------

Hong Kong Disneyland to Lend Vacant Sites to Government for Quarantine Facilities
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3050729/coronavirus-hong-kong-disneyland-lend-vacant

Government has secured consent to use 60-hectare site reserved for the theme park’s expansion, officials say

-----------------------------

Plea for Plasma After Positive Results With Coronavirus Patients in China
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050698/plea-plasma-after-positive-results-coronavirus-patients-china

Health of critically ill people treated with antibodies from recovered patients improved in tests, biotech company says

But experts urge caution to ensure appropriate consent and collection

----------------------------

Coronavirus: Infected Taxi Driver Had Contact With Diamond Princess Passengers in Japan
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3050667/coronavirus-elderly-passengers-diamond-princess-cruise-ship

The driver in her 60s was believed to have driven passengers when the ship made a port call in Okinawa on February 1

Officials also confirmed two new cases in Tokyo, both of whom had contact with a taxi driver in his 70s whose infection was announced on Thursday. One of the new cases was a worker on a boat where the Tokyo taxi driver had held a party on January 18 with his wife, the Tokyo government said.

The fourth person was a farmer in his 70s who was treated at a hospital in western Japan where a doctor was recently confirmed to have been infected, local officials said on Friday, adding that the two apparently never had any contact.

---------------------------------

This Is What The COVID-19 Virus Looks Like Under The Microscope
https://www.sciencealert.com/this-is-what-the-covid-19-virus-looks-like-under-electron-microscopes/amp

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases' (NIAID) Rocky Mountains Laboratories (RML) have just released scanning and transmission electron microscope images of the coronavirus, and they're... surprisingly aesthetically pleasing.



What you're seeing above is a scanning electron microscope image in false colour, showing the COVID-19 virus from a patient in the US; the viral particles are coloured yellow as it emerges from the surface of a cell, which is coloured blue and pink.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

oren

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #853 on: February 14, 2020, 03:28:35 PM »
One of the people diagnosed with coronavirus in the UK attended a central London conference last week with more than 200 delegates.

Here’s a picture of last week’s Bus Summit at the QEII Centre which was attended by someone who has since diagnosed been with coronavirus.
Shocking.

It would appear the virus is now establishing itself through local transmission in Japan, the UK and Singapore, at the least. Indonesia and somewhere in Africa are very strong suspects as well.

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #854 on: February 14, 2020, 03:35:38 PM »
Quote
Plea for Plasma After Positive Results With Coronavirus Patients in China


Important detail. This is a very good time for blood drives before people are too afraid or unwilling/unable to donate.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #855 on: February 14, 2020, 05:25:21 PM »
Sam, I agree that China has done something that no other nation on Earth, with the possible exception of NK, could have done. It is what the Chinese government is saying that I am wondering about. They won’t allow the CDC in. They keep WHO on a tight leash. They have a history of misinformation in their propaganda. In addition to the practical problems you stated on the statistics there is, IMHO, a question about the CCP’s credibility.

Socially, the Chinese government is different. China has long considered itself the Middle Kingdom and the center of the world. They tend to express certain beliefs that are fairly common in Asia. The famous saying "the nail that stands up will get hammered down" is one such. These ideas are expressed in the government.

Around the world, differences of societal expectation like this are fairly common. Viewed from within or outside these appear differently. The expectation from western democracies about how information is handled is often different from those who have been subjected to harm by those same countries in the past and who then differ in how outside influences are handled.

China has been attacked many times, both by western countries, and locally by other Asian neighbors. The British actions with the opium wars, colonization of Hong Kong, and Japanese attacks, as well as many others have left large marks in their social memory. These cause them to be understandably reticent to trust.

Sam

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #856 on: February 14, 2020, 05:28:26 PM »
WHO Underestimates Spread of Coronavirus
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-underestimates-coronavirus.html

The coronavirus probably has a stronger ability to spread than the World Health Organization has estimated so far. This according to a review of previous studies of the coronavirus' transmissibility performed not least by researchers at Umeå University in Sweden.

Our review shows that the coronavirus is at least as transmissible as the SARS virus. And that says a great deal about the seriousness of the situation," says Joacim Rocklöv, professor of sustainable health at Umeå University and one of the authors of the study.

Researchers in Umeå in Sweden, Heidelberg in Germany, and Zhangzhou in China have carried out a review of several scientific studies of the novel coronavirus, COVD-19. In total, the researchers found 12 studies of sufficiently high quality. The studies consisted of estimations of the growth rate based upon the cases observed in the Chinese population, and based upon statistical and mathematical methods.

The earliest studies of the coronavirus indicated a relatively low transmissibility. Thereafter, the transmissibility rose rapidly to stabilise between 2–3 in the most recent studies. The reproduction number in the studies summed up to a mean of 3.28, and a median of 2.79, which is significantly higher than the World Health Organization's estimation of 1.4–2.5.

"When looking at the development of the corona epidemic, reality seems to correspond well to or even exceed the highest epidemic growth in our calculations. Despite all intervention and control activities, the coronavirus has already spread to a significantly higher extent than SARS did," says Joacim Rocklöv.

Open Access: Ying Liu et al. The reproductive number of COVID-19 is higher compared to SARS coronavirus, Journal of Travel Medicine (2020).

R0 of SARS: ~2.9-3.3
https://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/WHOconsensus.pdf

------------------------------

Coronavirus is ‘Very Contagious’ But ‘We’ll Get Past This Epidemic,’ Top Pharma CEO Says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/14/coronavirus-very-contagious-but-well-get-past-epidemic-astrazeneca.html

The new strain of coronavirus that has created a deadly epidemic in China is “a lot more contagious” than the flu, a top pharma CEO told CNBC.

Speaking to CNBC’s Julianna Tatelbaum Friday, AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot said the virus, formally named COVID-19, was a highly contagious infection.

... Researchers have already warned that COVID-19 may be more contagious than current data shows.

... a research team at Lancaster University in England suggested in January that the coronavirus may have an R naught of 3.1, while Chinese scientists said it could be even higher.

“We estimated the mean R0 ranging from 3.30 to 5.47,” they said in a paper published last month.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.916395v1.article-info



----------------------------

Remdesivir Prevents MERS Coronavirus Disease in Monkeys
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-remdesivir-mers-coronavirus-disease-monkeys.html

The experimental antiviral remdesivir successfully prevented disease in rhesus macaques infected with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), according to a new study from National Institutes of Health scientists. Remdesivir prevented disease when administered before infection and improved the condition of macaques when given after the animals already were infected.

MERS-CoV is closely related to the 2019 novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, previously known as 2019-nCoV) that has grown to be a global public health emergency since cases were first detected in Wuhan, China, in December.

... The current study was conducted at NIAID's Rocky Mountain Laboratories in Hamilton, Montana. The work involved three groups of animals: those treated with remdesivir 24 hours before infection with MERS-CoV; those treated 12 hours after infection (close to the peak time for MERS-CoV replication in these animals); and untreated control animals.

The scientists observed the animals for six days. All control animals showed signs of respiratory disease. Animals treated before infection fared well: no signs of respiratory disease, significantly lower levels of virus replication in the lungs compared to control animals, and no lung damage. Animals treated after infection fared significantly better than the control animals: disease was less severe than in control animals, their lungs had lower levels of virus than the control animals, and the damage to the lungs was less severe.

The scientists indicate that the promising study results support additional clinical trials of remdesivir for MERS-CoV and COVID-19, the disease that SARS-CoV-2 causes. Several clinical trials of remdesivir for COVID-19 are under way in China, and other patients with COVID-19 have received the drug under a compassionate use protocol.



Open Access: Emmie de Wit et al, Prophylactic and therapeutic remdesivir (GS-5734) treatment in the rhesus macaque model of MERS-CoV infection, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2020).
« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 05:50:19 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #857 on: February 14, 2020, 05:35:51 PM »
China Extends ‘Wartime’ Campaign To Round Up Infected People Beyond Epicenter As COVID-19 Death Toll Rises

China’s leaders expanded a mass roundup of people possibly sickened with the coronavirus on Thursday, widening their dragnet well beyond the epicenter of the outbreak to at least two more cities in what the government has called a “wartime” campaign to stamp out the epidemic. But the campaign, first announced last week in the city of Wuhan, already has been marred by chaotic conditions that have isolated vulnerable patients without adequate care and, in some cases, left them alone to die. The expansion of the decree to “round up everyone who should be rounded up” in the Wuhan area of central China has deepened the nation’s sense of anxiety.

Authorities in Yunmeng County of Hubei province announced a lock down to be implemented Friday morning, on residential areas and buildings would be sealed and vehicles banned. Those who violate the rules “will be detained, in accordance with relevant regulations during wartime management.”

Similar wartime control measures were also implemented in the cities of Shiyan and Xiaogan in Hubei province on Thursday.

--------------------------------

Third Indian Crew On Board Diamond Princess Cruise Ship Tests Positive for COVID-19
https://english.mathrubhumi.com/mobile/news/world/third-indian-crew-on-board-cruise-ship-off-japanese-coast-tests-positive-for-covid-19-1.4528724

Tokyo: A third Indian crew on board a cruise ship off the Japanese coast has tested positive for the novel coronavirus, the Indian Embassy in Japan said on Friday as authorities confirmed that 218 people have been infected with the deadly virus on the quarantined ship.

--------------------------------

Virus Risk to US is ‘Very Low,’ But That Could Change ‘Rapidly,’ Azar Says

The American public’s risk of getting infected with the new coronavirus is “very low” but that could change “rapidly,” Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar told CNBC.

---------------------------

LabCorp Begins Work on Developing Coronavirus Diagnostic Test
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-laboratory-corp/labcorp-begins-work-on-developing-coronavirus-test-idUSKBN207208
Labcorp

(Reuters) - LabCorp said on Thursday it has begun work on developing its own test for the coronavirus that has killed over 1,300 in China.

Since late January, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has rushed to distribute the agency’s testing kits to allow states to do their own testing rather than ship all samples to CDC headquarters in Atlanta.

The laboratory service provider said it had immediately engaged with the CDC on its test being available to commercial labs and is preparing to support the global response, if necessary.

------------------------------

China Titanium Producer Pangang Shuts Unit as Coronavirus Cases Found
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-titanium/china-titanium-producer-pangang-shuts-unit-as-coronavirus-cases-found-idUSKBN20819K

BEIJING (Reuters) - One of China’s top titanium producers has halted production at its unit in Chongqing after members of staff were found to be infected with the new coronavirus, a local government official said on Friday.

Pangang Group Vanadium Titanium and Resources, which produces around 220,000 tonnes per year of titanium dioxide - used as white pigment in paints, paper, plastics and textiles - subsequently put the facility in Chongqing’s Banan district under lockdown, the Banan official said.

The municipality of Chongqing in China’s southwest borders the virus epicentre of Hubei province, where the outbreak has so far killed more than 1,300 people.

Local media reported that two cases were confirmed on Pangang’s Chongqing premises, on a Banan industrial park, as it “failed to strictly meet ... virus control and prevention after returning to work,” and potentially exposed 131 people.

Supplies of titanium, used in many medical devices, are taking a hit from the outbreak.

----------------------------------
« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 05:43:37 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #858 on: February 14, 2020, 05:57:35 PM »
Sam, your postings on this thread are excellent. Thank you for your thoughtful contributions.

I come from Eastern European jewish genetic stock.  It is a gene pool that has had relatively little outcrossing and as such, has a high concentration of quite a few heritable diseases. When two Ashkenazi (Eastern European) jews plan to reproduce they often seek special genetic analysis to identify potentially detrimental recessive genes in the parents. That ain't nazi shit, that's a fact.  Certain gene frequencies differ among certain groups of humans, especially ones with a history of low outcrossing. These differences have proven effects on how different groups of people metabolize different foods and drugs for example.  That has nothing to do with the social construct of race, but it is a fact.

From Scientific American:
Does Race Exist?
If races are defined as genetically discrete groups, no. But researchers can use some genetic information to group individuals into clusters with medical relevance.

dnem,

Your points are well taken.

In the case of splinter groups who were isolated long enough to develop large differences like the Neanderthals, Denisovans, Homo Habilis, the ghost populations of Southern Europe, Western Africa, Southern Africa and Southeast Asia, the differences were large enough to cause them to be considered separate races. But they certainly weren't large enough to be separate species.

Lesser differences have generated sufficient differences either from genetic or societal/social pressures to show trait differences. These are not great enough by a long ways to create any real distinctions.

Traits resulting from genetic drift among populations with little outside influx for long periods do show the buildup of recessive gene issues like those you describe. And populations do develop differences large enough to cause people in or out of the groups to see one another as insiders or outsiders of the groups.

We humans are very tribal. We associate easily with those we consider a part of our tribe, and tend to reject those believed to be outsiders. But that isn't race. One only need look to the current State of affairs in political divisions in many countries to see that. And those dividing lines split families.

Some of these divisions are no doubt trait driven, where genetics regarding levels of neurotransmitters, sex hormones and others lead to different behaviors. Other divisions are for other reasons.

In terms of genetics though, we are one people, despite some trait differences. And you can see that in the wide dissemination of traits around the world.

In my own case, though nothing in the last several centuries of my family history would suggest it, my genes show influences from the tibetan plateau, and from Africa, among others. I carry a rare rhesus blood group that is African in origin and which provides some protection against malaria. I also carry rare high altitude genes from Asia. And I carry a lot of genes from the Neanderthals. These traits are all rare. None of these particular ones cause disease, except for one of the Neanderthal genes. Even then, that gene provides strong immune advantage despite also causing horrible problems.

Many people's and groups carry rare modifications with both beneficial and detrimental aspects. Sickle cell trait is one such. Others like PKU, hemophilia, and many others seem to have no advantage at all, and to only be detrimental.

And though these traits appeared in one population, that doesn't then make their descendants racially different.

Our social ideas of race have more to do with tribal and group identification. And that too often leads to separation, fear and animosity. In the extreme, as happened in Rwanda, this leads to horrific tragedies.

Sam

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #859 on: February 14, 2020, 06:08:22 PM »
Sam, I agree that China has done something that no other nation on Earth, with the possible exception of NK, could have done. It is what the Chinese government is saying that I am wondering about. They won’t allow the CDC in. They keep WHO on a tight leash. They have a history of misinformation in their propaganda. In addition to the practical problems you stated on the statistics there is, IMHO, a question about the CCP’s credibility.

It was only to late. At the time they placed Wuhan in lock down. The virus was aleady spreading in Singapore. The doctor was right.

Also do recall that this happened (as it would be expected to) right in the midst of the largest holiday in China with the greatest migration of people on Earth. That huge movement of people precisely as the disease emerged led both to widespread dissemination within China, and to difficulties in indentifying that an emerging new pathogen had indeed emerged.

As with holidays anywhere, this also then happened when staffing was down due to the holidays in key positions, and the attention of key decision makers was focused on other issues.

Similar outbreaks could easily happen around Carnival, the Hajj, Christmas, Oktoberfest, Semana, and a wide range of other holidays. They too would cause similar difficulty in identifying that a new agent had emerged, and about controlling its spread.

Sam

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #860 on: February 14, 2020, 06:26:11 PM »
Points, Sam.
These are good reasons, in addition to what I said above, for taking Chinese figures with a grain of salt.
There is evidence (not proof, since they could be faked) that China is covering up how bad this is over there.
Maybe in the end we will see.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

oren

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #861 on: February 14, 2020, 06:28:47 PM »
Similar outbreaks could easily happen around Carnival, the Hajj, Christmas, Oktoberfest, Semana, and a wide range of other holidays. They too would cause similar difficulty in identifying that a new agent had emerged, and about controlling its spread.
The SAME outbreak may yet happen around Carnival, which is around 2 weeks from today. Let's hope there is no infected carrier currently in Brazil or on its way there unknowingly.

etienne

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #862 on: February 14, 2020, 06:30:03 PM »
From Scientific American:
Does Race Exist?
If races are defined as genetically discrete groups, no. But researchers can use some genetic information to group individuals into clusters with medical relevance.
Of course, the easiest cluster being male and female.
Race is a cultural concept, you can feel yourself black, white, Italian, Soccer fan, Christian... Each group having some predominant genetic information, but none having one that makes it possible to define it without doubt.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #863 on: February 14, 2020, 06:41:29 PM »
I believe what Archimid and dnem and Sam may be trying to refer to is how racial/ethnic differences apply in the Medical context And in this case especially as it refers to drug metabolism.

One of the things I learned in Pharmacokinetics, and Phamacogenomics was the impact of an enzyme system in the body called the Cytochrome P450 on drug metabolism. There are many variant of this enzyme (called polymorphisms) within humans. These variants are often linked to racial or ethnic categories.

A drug may work for one population and fail completely for another. This is why race and ethnicity are important in medicine.

------------------------------

The Effect of Cytochrome P450 Metabolism on Drug Response, Interactions, and Adverse Effects
https://www.aafp.org/afp/2007/0801/p391.html

Cytochrome P450 enzymes are essential for the metabolism of many medications. Although this class has more than 50 enzymes, six of them metabolize 90 percent of drugs, with the two most significant enzymes being CYP3A4 and CYP2D6. Genetic variability (polymorphism) in these enzymes may influence a patient's response to commonly prescribed drug class.

Cytochrome P450s are the major enzymes involved in drug metabolism, accounting for about 75% of the total metabolism. Most drugs undergo deactivation by CYPs, either directly or by facilitated excretion from the body. Also, many substances are bioactivated by CYPs to form their active compounds.

One out of every 15 white or black persons may have an exaggerated response to standard doses of beta blockers (e.g., metoprolol [Lopressor]), or no response to the analgesic tramadol (Ultram). This is because drug metabolism via CYP450 enzymes exhibits genetic variability (polymorphism) that influences a patient's response to a particular drug.3

A specific gene encodes each CYP450 enzyme. Every person inherits one genetic allele from each parent. Alleles are referred to as “wild type” or “variant,” with wild type occurring most commonly in the general population. An “extensive” (i.e., normal) metabolizer has received two copies of wild-type alleles. Polymorphism occurs when a variant allele replaces one or both wild-type alleles. Variant alleles usually encode a CYP450 enzyme that has reduced or no activity.1 Persons with two copies of variant alleles are “poor” metabolizers, whereas those with one wild-type and one variant allele have reduced enzyme activity. Finally, some persons inherit multiple copies of wild-type alleles, which results in excess enzyme activity. This phenotype is termed an “ultrarapid” metabolizer.4

CYP450 enzyme polymorphism is responsible for observed variations in drug response among patients of differing ethnic origins.4–6 For example, 7 percent of white persons and 2 to 7 percent of black persons are poor metabolizers of drugs dependent on CYP2D6, which metabolizes many beta blockers, antidepressants, and opioids.7,8 One in five Asian persons is a poor metabolizer of drugs dependent on CYP2C19, which metabolizes phenytoin (Dilantin), phenobarbital, omeprazole (Prilosec), and other drugs.9 Variance in drug response among persons of different ethnic origins also can be caused by genetic variations in other drug-metabolizing enzymes, drug transporters, and drug receptors.3

----------------------------------------

There are over 32 peer-reviewed articles on the implication of racial/ethnic differences as they apply to drug metabolism
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed?linkname=pubmed_pubmed_reviews&from_uid=22288606

---------------------------

example

Pharmacogenomics of CYP3A: considerations for HIV treatment
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2776626/

In both the U.S. and Global geographic settings, drug interactions contribute to clinical dilemmas making successful antiretroviral therapy, as well as the management of long-term complications, a formidable challenge.

... The CYP3A4*1B allelic frequency varies among different ethnic groups: 0% in Chinese and Taiwanese [38,39], 2–9.6% in Caucasians [36,38,40,41], 9.3–11% in Hispanic Americans, and 35–67% in African–Americans [28,42,43].

---------------------------

Cytochrome P450 variations in different ethnic populations.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22288606
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #864 on: February 14, 2020, 07:06:00 PM »
Egypt Announces First Coronavirus Infection: First Confirmed Case In Africa
https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/81641/Egypt-announces-first-Coronavirus-infection
https://gulfnews.com/world/mena/egypt-reports-first-coronavirus-case-1.1581702932596

Africa has its first confirmed case of coronavirus after a person in Egypt tested positive for the disease, it has emerged.

The person, who is not Egyptian, is in hospital isolation, the country’s health ministry said.

The ministry said it had immediately informed the World Health Organization and taken all necessary preventative measures.

Egypt’s Health Ministry announced, Friday first Coronavirus infection for a ‘foreigner’ inside the country.

Spokesperson for the Health Ministry Khaled Megahed said that the laboratory tests which were conducted for the suspected case, resulted in a positive virus, however no symptoms appears on the infected person.

“The case was transferred by a “self-sterilized”? ambulance to a hospital to be isolated and followed-up” Megahed said, adding that the infected person condition is completely stable.

The case is reported days after Egypt said that its home population hit 100 million people, making it the Arab world's most populous country.



------------------------------------

Under China's Coronavirus Lockdown, Millions Have Nowhere To Go
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-scale/under-chinas-coronavirus-lockdown-millions-have-nowhere-to-go-idUSKBN2081DB

(Reuters) - Around 500 million people in China are currently affected by policies put in place restricting movement, to contain the COVID-19 coronavirus. That’s more than the entire population of the United States and is equivalent to roughly 6.5% of the world’s population.

As of Friday, at least 48 cities and four provinces in China have issued official notices for lockdown policies, with measures ranging from “closed-off management”, where residents of a community have to be registered before they are allowed in or out, to restrictions that shut down highways, railways and public transport systems.

Infographic graphic depicting the scale of China's lockdown due to the recent coronavirus
https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-LOCKDOWN/0100B5EF3LJ/index.html

The lockdowns began with Wuhan - the epicentre of the outbreak and where half the world’s confirmed coronavirus cases are. After the city’s borders were closed on Jan. 23 and all incoming and outgoing flights cancelled, other nearby cities in Hubei province also implemented their own policies restricting the movement of people.

But not every city or province is facing Wuhan-like restrictions. Citizens cannot leave the cities of Wuhan, Huanggang, Ezhou and a few others in Hubei province, while Shanghai and Beijing have only put movement restrictions in place for some smaller communities such as building blocks or neighbourhoods.

Many cities have reduced public transport lines and routes, while few have closed intra-city public transport entirely. Altogether, 80.41 million people have been affected by shut bus or metro lines.

Some communities have instituted curfews or only allow people to exit and enter at particular times. There is even a restriction where only a certain number of people from a household can leave their residence at any one time.

The COVID-19 coronavirus has hit one of the most populated regions on the planet and thus has led to an unprecedented lockdown on the movement of people.

-------------------------------------

No 'Plan B' for Olympics; Questions Over Chinese Presence
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-olympics-chinese-presence.html

Tokyo Olympic organizers and the International Olympic Committee said Friday there is no "Plan B" for the 2020 Games, which open in just over five months and have been jolted by the outbreak of a virus in neighboring China.

... "Certainly the advice we're received externally from the WHO (World Health Organization) is that there's no case for any contingency plans or cancelling the games or moving the games," John Coates, the head of an IOC inspection team, said to wrap up a two-day visit that was dominated by the virus issue.

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #865 on: February 14, 2020, 07:12:12 PM »
Vox_mundi,

What an excellent post!  Thank you.

The variation in CYP450 genetics is absolutely huge in terms of its impact on what works and what doesn't for pharmaceuticals AND for herbs.

In my own case, I have five nonfunctional CYP enzymes. These include 1A2, 1B1, 2A6, 2D6, and 3A5 with weak functioning of 2C19. The 2D6 and 3A5 differences are the most important for me. I do not process any of the usual cold remedies into biologically active forms. I might just as well eat the boxes and containers these come in for all they would do for me as the so-called active ingredients would.

This is a huge and emerging area in medicine. Doctors as yet generally know little to nothing about it. Yet the differences in enzyme genetics have enormous implications for what medicines work, and for which are dangerous.

Thank you for pointing this out. The importance of these factors cannot be understated.

Along with these, there are a whole series of others of lesser, though still large importance. Add to these the Human leukocyte antigens HLAs, HNAs, certain blood groups. All are important.

I predict that within five years that it will be routine to have genetic -and- blood activity testing done for the CYP450 enzymes, and within a decade similar routine testing for the others. They have such a huge impact both on disease processes and on treatment that it would irresponsible not to test for them.

In this context, "race" has a somewhat different meaning than the common parlance meaning. Here it refers to genetic groups of people. Each group has somewhat different mixes of various attributes. These are important in that context.

There is another important idea here, which is easily lost. Many of the traits involved here are relatively rare and important. Yet the idea of rarity is misleading, as there are so many "rare" attributes, that "rarity" is common. The problem is that each different rare attribute is distinct from the others.

Some are easily and commonly identified. Some aren't. And whether those lead to serious health implications often isn't known until tragedy happens. That might be from toxic reaction to what for most people is a perfectly safe remedy, through inaction of a generally potent cure, from sudden unexpected blood clotting caused by antigen reactions, or from many other factors.

Knowing what social or ethnic group a person is biologically descended from can provide hints (like for PKU, or a myriad of others), but that isn't definitive. Serology and genetic testing are required to find out.

As things stand today, most physicians have no idea what to do with the CYP450 genetic information. As a patient you have to be extremely well informed for it to be useful. Even then, the information will most likely be entered (wrongly) in your medical record as allergic responses (a wholly different thing).

The same holds true for blood group information. Though the physicians gave a better understanding there, my experience is that even so-called experts too often do not understand the basics. Behind the scenes the folks handling blood, testing it, typing it, and such, truly are experts and unsung heroes. They mostly keep the front line physicians out of trouble.

Then there is the rest of the genetic information about susceptibilities, risks, etc... As with the enzyme and blood groups, the front line physicians are generally uninformed. Cancer physicians are mostly leading in this area.

Sam
« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 07:27:17 PM by Sam »

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #866 on: February 14, 2020, 07:24:32 PM »
Similar outbreaks could easily happen around Carnival, the Hajj, Christmas, Oktoberfest, Semana, and a wide range of other holidays. They too would cause similar difficulty in identifying that a new agent had emerged, and about controlling its spread.
The SAME outbreak may yet happen around Carnival, which is around 2 weeks from today. Let's hope there is no infected carrier currently in Brazil or on its way there unknowingly.

China halted all it's flights to Greece from yesterday. From next week on many places in Europe have a week school holiday. And many people travel to Greece.

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #867 on: February 14, 2020, 07:29:35 PM »
Similar outbreaks could easily happen around Carnival, the Hajj, Christmas, Oktoberfest, Semana, and a wide range of other holidays. They too would cause similar difficulty in identifying that a new agent had emerged, and about controlling its spread.
The SAME outbreak may yet happen around Carnival, which is around 2 weeks from today. Let's hope there is no infected carrier currently in Brazil or on its way there unknowingly.

China halted all it's flights to Greece from yesterday. From next week on many places in Europe have a week school holiday. And many people travel to Greece.

Getting the public and leaders to understand the necessity for such actions may be one of the largest challenges.   .... but I want ... is a huge problem to overcome.

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #868 on: February 14, 2020, 07:38:27 PM »
Update: US Will Test People With Flu Symptoms, In Significant Expansion of Government Response
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3050759/coronavirus-us-will-test-people-flu-symptoms

The US will begin testing people identified by local health authorities as having flu-like symptoms for the novel coronavirus, a senior official said Friday, a significant expansion of the government’s response to the epidemic.

Messonnier described it as a “really efficient way” for the U.S. health officials to detect if when the virus begins to spread. 

“CDC (Centres for Disease Control and Prevention) has begun working with five public health labs across the US to tap into their ability to conduct community based influenza surveillance, so that we can begin testing people with flu-like symptoms for novel coronavirus,” said Nancy Messonnier, a senior CDC official.

The five labs are in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, Chicago and New York City. Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the agency, said the CDC intends to add more cities in the coming weeks until the CDC has achieved “national surveillance.”

She added that the system would act as an early warning if the virus spreads that would “trigger a change in our response strategy.”

“This is an extra layer of our response that will help us detect if and when this virus is spreading in the community,” Messonnier said. “All of our efforts now are to prevent the sustained spread of the virus in our community, but we need to be prepared for the possibility that it will spread.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/14/us-health-officials-to-check-patients-with-flu-symptoms-for-coronavirus.html
« Last Edit: February 14, 2020, 10:19:45 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #869 on: February 14, 2020, 08:59:13 PM »
Coronavirus Closer to H1N1 Than SARS, Singapore Says (6:54 p.m. HK)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-13/u-s-ramps-up-criticism-hubei-data-awaited-virus-update

The Singapore government said it’s “clearly emerging” that the virus is different from SARS. Coronavirus is closer to H1N1 because it’s more easily spread; its mortality rate is however lower than severe acute respiratory syndrome, according to Lawrence Wong, minister for national development who co-chairs a task force coordinating the city-state’s virus response. Singapore reported 9 new cases, lifting the total in the country to 67.

------------------------------

Wuhan Sharply Tightens Lockdown of Residents (1 p.m. NY)

The Chinese city of Wuhan tightened its quarantine on residents and said people will be confined to their neighborhoods except to seek medical care, work to fight the outbreak or keep vital services going.

The notice from the city government, posted in a statement, further tightens the already drastic measures taken by the city to stop the virus. Wuhan has opened quarantine centers to house thousands of patients and others with symptoms, and Hubei province, where Wuhan is located, has announced thousands of new cases a day.

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Y4qgZ8VZOHVfCUghprwr_g

Under the new rules, most Wuhan residents will be allowed to leave residential compounds only for medical care. Other cities that have put lockdowns in place have allowed people to leave every few days to buy food. It wasn’t immediately clear from the statement how Wuhan’s residents would be able to get food or other supplies.

Under the new rules, some neighborhoods will be barricaded off to keep people from getting in or out, and non-residents won’t be able to enter neighborhoods that aren’t theirs.


--------------------------------

GM Tries to Shield Plants From China Parts Shortage (12:12 p.m. NY)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-14/gm-scrambles-to-shield-u-s-truck-plants-from-virus-disruption

General Motors Co. is trying to shield some of its most profitable U.S. plants from running out of components sourced from China, a spokesman said, after a union member at one factory wrote that the threat of a parts shortage at the factories is growing.

--------------------------------

Fiat Chrysler to Halt Work at Serbia Plant (6:15 p.m. HK)
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/FCA:IM

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV is planning to halt operations at its assembly plant in Serbia due to a lack of parts from China because of the coronavirus, people familiar with the matter said.

The stoppage at a factory that makes the Fiat 500L would mark the first time a European carmaker has had to idle a facility in Europe due to the virus. The move shows how the outbreak is disrupting global supply chains.

-----------------------------

Bank of Korea Warns of ‘Unavoidable’ Impact (12:09 p.m. HK)

Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol warned that the spread of the viral illness could have a negative impact on the economy and said the central bank is preparing measures to extend financial support to struggling businesses.

“We hope the coronavirus outbreak won’t last for long, but considering the South Korean economy’s high correlation with China and the weakening in sentiment, some damage to the economy is unavoidable,” Lee said in a meeting with Finance Minister Hong Nam-ki and financial regulators in Seoul.

--------------------------- 

Harrods Bans Staff From Wearing Face Masks (7:56 a.m. NY)

Harrods Department Store Co., a big tourist attraction in London for Chinese shoppers, has prohibited staff from wearing masks when dealing with customers because of the “risk of spreading further anxiety” about the virus.

(... wouldn't want to catch any of that 'anxiety' bug going around. No siree!)

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #870 on: February 14, 2020, 09:16:11 PM »
Oh goodie.

Just to add to the confusion, the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) has named the virus SARS-CoV-2.

https://talk.ictvonline.org/
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.937862v1.full.pdf

The World Health Organization previously named the virus COVID-19, or Covid-19.

https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/technical-guidance
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200212-sitrep-23-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=41e9fb78_2

Before that it was known unofficially as 2019-nCoV, 2019-nCoV-ARD, and semi-officially as NCP
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019-nCoV_acute_respiratory_disease
http://www.nhc.gov.cn/yzygj/s7653p/202002/18c1bb43965a4492907957875de02ae7.shtml

So now the virus has two official names, one semi-official name, and several unofficial names. There are undoubtedly others.

Anyone else (official bodies) want to chime in and add more?

Please don’t.

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #871 on: February 14, 2020, 09:26:13 PM »
Quote
Harrods Department Store Co., a big tourist attraction in London for Chinese shoppers, has prohibited staff from wearing masks when dealing with customers because of the “risk of spreading further anxiety” about the virus.

(... wouldn't want to catch any of that 'anxiety' bug going around. No siree!)

This is exactly the same phenomenon as most climate change denial by smart people. Fear of fear.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #872 on: February 14, 2020, 09:35:20 PM »
^ Agreed

OBTW, I think COVID-19 is the disease name and SARS-CoV-2 is the virus name; like influenza vs H1N1.

Expect the press to use them interchangeably if at all. So far I've run across:

Wuhan virus
Corona virus
Coronavirus
Virus
2019-nCoV
COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2

In 6 months we'll probably have some choicer slurs to describe it. ;D
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #873 on: February 14, 2020, 09:37:51 PM »
Will The Corona Virus Trigger A Recession?
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/will-the-corona-virus-trigger-a-recession/
Quote
Will U.S. GDP growth really be shaved by just .4 %?  If we consider the compounding effect of the epidemic to disrupt both demand and supply, the social chaos in China challenging government authority (i.e., Hong Kong), and a lingering trade war – these factors all make a decline into a recession a real and growing possibility.  We hope the epidemic can be contained quickly and lives saved with a return to a more certain world economy.  Yet, 1930s historical records show rising world nationalism, trade wars, and the fracturing of the world order does not bode well for a positive outcome. Mohammed A. El-Arian. Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz in a recent Bloomberg opinion warns of a U shaped recession or worse an L
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vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #874 on: February 14, 2020, 09:46:25 PM »


How NOT to use a digital thermometer!

Nothing like pressing it on a persons forehead thereby passing on the viruses of the previous 40 people he's used it on.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #875 on: February 14, 2020, 10:10:05 PM »
Whilst my dearly departed Son was alive his fragility always had me wound up about the Chinese New Year and their 'Wet Markets'

Back then it was H5N1 and the zoonotic transfer from Chicken/Pigs over the 'biggest Human migration' at that time.

My fear was a jump, H2H, and then the spread returning travellers would facilitate.

Then we saw SARS and ,for a moment, it was touch and go.

Then we saw the return of H1N1 and ,sadly it did for both Luke and my Father and left me hanging on with Post Viral Syndrome (or any other of a plethora of names for an auto immune running rogue?)

Then this.

Again 'Wet Markets' , again C.N.Y. but this time the virus was already out and spreading by the time we saw the travel for the event take place (before restrictions took place?)

Now we have the spectre that International travel has 'let the cat out of the bag' with accidental transfer from folk returning from 'Hot Spots'......

Let's keep level heads but let's keep up to date on the evolution of all of this?
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #876 on: February 14, 2020, 10:53:35 PM »
It's obviously been awhile, but our condolences, Gray-Wolf.  Aspects of grieving never end.
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #877 on: February 14, 2020, 11:27:11 PM »
Sorry to hear, G-W.

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #878 on: February 14, 2020, 11:36:45 PM »
Sadly, there is no expert that you can post that will say that races are equal when it comes to medicine. Not scientifically anyway. There are differences, small as they may be.

Sorry. There is no such thing as race. It is an artificial construct that has no basis in science. You are focused on phenotype. There are more genetic differences between a Nigerian and Kenyan than there are between a Kenyan and a Swede.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #879 on: February 14, 2020, 11:47:52 PM »
Quote from: SharedHumanity
... There are more genetic differences between a Nigerian and Kenyan than there are between a Kenyan and a Swede. 
Can you share a peer-reviewed reference to qualify that opinion ... otherwise your creating a distraction that is going nowhere.
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #880 on: February 15, 2020, 12:24:32 AM »
Thread is becoming increasingly useless to read...I'll get my news elsewhere...carry on.

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #881 on: February 15, 2020, 12:42:38 AM »
THE COVID-19 CORONAVIRUS AND ITS ECONOMIC IMPACT
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/the-economic-effects-of-the-coronavirus/
Quote
The extensive efforts to contain the new coronavirus have caused economic growth in China to slow abruptly and are having repercussions around the world.

The charts on this page track the spread of the virus in China and its economic impact. Most include daily data, which we are updating every working day. This page also contains links to our latest analysis on the impact of the outbreak in China and around the world.
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SteveMDFP

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #882 on: February 15, 2020, 01:10:58 AM »
Update: US Will Test People With Flu Symptoms, In Significant Expansion of Government Response
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/united-states-canada/article/3050759/coronavirus-us-will-test-people-flu-symptoms

The US will begin testing people identified by local health authorities as having flu-like symptoms for the novel coronavirus, a senior official said Friday, a significant expansion of the government’s response to the epidemic....

Thanks, vox, for bringing this update.  I thought I'd share another source for this information:

CDC: Flu surveillance system enlisted in hunt for COVID-19 cases
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/cdc-flu-surveillance-system-enlisted-hunt-covid-19-cases

"As a way to spot any community COVID-19 activity early, federal health officials will use the nation's flu surveillance system to look for people who may be infected with the disease.

US Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar first unveiled the plan yesterday. Its first phase will be launched at public health labs that are part of the flu surveillance system in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, Chicago, and New York City...."

_____________________________

It appears these labs will automatically test specimens (taken from patents presenting with flu-like symptoms) and test those negative for influenza for Covid-19.  This should give much better data for finding and tracking cases other than from known contacts and quarantine persons. 

Within a couple of weeks, we should start to get an indication as to whether the epidemic is spreading among otherwise unrecognized populations.  A major management question will be what to do with those individuals who are infected but not sick enough to need hospitalization.

It's been decades since mandatory home quarantines have been used in the US.  We may see them again.  I'm a bit concerned that many modern Americans will refuse to be confined in this way.  Throwing violators in jail would obviously be problematic.  What to do with non-compliant patients?

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #883 on: February 15, 2020, 02:50:36 AM »
Thanks for the update Steve ...

I'm still questioning the sensitivity/specificity of the tests they may be pushing. A rapid immunoassay is notoriously non-linear, and a PCR test does not lend itself to mass screenings. The CDC has already had to recall flawed test kits. We shall see ...

As several users have noted, few countries could duplicate the effort that China has expended which leads to the following link.

------------------------------

Coronavirus: Time to Admit That Like Flu, Covid-19 is Here to Stay?
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3050734/coronavirus-time-admit-flu-covid-19-here-stay

... Some experts think it is futile to spend resources on trying to isolate every case of the virus, saying people with mild symptoms should recover at home

The drain on resources raises a question polarising public health experts and officials around the world: when is it time for the authorities to broaden their focus from emphasising containment of the virus and isolating all possible cases to limiting the damage it causes?

This switch, to what health experts call a mitigation-focused approach, would free up limited space in hospitals, as well as medical staff, equipment and supplies for treatment of the most severe cases.

Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong raised the possibility last weekend that if cases continued to increase, his country could move to let hospitals focus only on the most vulnerable patients, rather than risk overwhelming the health-care system by hospitalising every patient. On Friday, he said the country was not yet at the point where it would change its approach but was watching the evolving situation closely.

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3049668/singapore-pm-says-coronavirus-spread-could-worsen

Jennifer Nuzzo, senior scholar at Washington’s Johns Hopkins Centre for Health Security, said individual local health-care systems might not have the capacity to isolate and monitor all suspected cases. She pointed out that the World Health Organisation had said as many as 80 per cent of Covid-19 cases were mild.

More than a hundred health-care staff had reportedly worked to trace the close contacts of one of the first US cases of the virus, said Nuzzo.

“That just doesn’t scale,”
said Nuzzo, adding that this drained already stretched health-care systems of personnel and equipment needed elsewhere.

... Leaving mild cases to recover at home effectively meant that a mild form of the virus would exist in the long term, said Leong. It will become endemic.

Public health experts said adopting a mitigation approach was a workable strategy only if officials could be sure that fatality rates of Covid-19 were low. But with the numbers of cases passing 44,000 and mainland China reporting 240 deaths on a single day this week, scientists have yet to pin it down.

The WHO this week continued to push for containment. Former CDC head Thomas Frieden said governments should push on with containment for as long as they could, while preparing for a scenario in which a milder form of the virus had a long-term presence.

Quote
... “The major question right now is: is this going to be controllable like Sars, which as far as we know is gone, or is it going to be like flu or the common cold that circulates regionally indefinitely,” ... “We have to assume it can be stopped, while also planning for what we can do to better manage and mitigate it if it can’t be completely stopped.”

Thomas Frieden - Former CDC head[/I][/b]

Feigl-Ding at Harvard said right now most cases of Covid-19 were unresolved. “In some cases, people have been sick for two or three weeks. When people are sick for that long, it really taxes the health-care system.”

The CDC’s Redfield said it was highly likely the US would have to transition to mitigation as a public health strategy at some point.

California doctor Kaiser said the question of whether to allow mild cases to recover outside the hospital setting was incredibly difficult for governments and officials.

Quote
...“What we’re really asking is how bad we should allow it to be – how many deaths are acceptable?” ... “That’s not just a medical question, it’s a political question. It’s not a decision I’d like to be facing personally.”


When the Levee Breaks - Led Zeppelin

-------------------------------

Coronavirus: Hubei Reports 2,420 New Cases and 139 Additional Deaths
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050773/coronavirus-hubei-reports-2420-new-cases-and-139-additional

------------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #884 on: February 15, 2020, 02:57:07 AM »
https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia?from=timeline&isappinstalled=0

截至 2020-02-14 17:48 全国数据统计
数据说明

56,951 现存确诊 +1,128 较昨日
  8,969 现存疑似 +2,277  较昨日
  8,101 治愈 +1,373  较昨日
66,576 累计确诊 +2,644  较昨日
11,053 现存重症 +849  较昨日
  1,524 死亡 +143  较昨日

As of 2020-02-14 17:48 National Statistics
the data shows:

56,951 Existing diagnoses +1,128 compared to yesterday
  8,969 Suspected +2,277 compared to yesterday
  8,101 Healed +1,373 compared to yesterday
66,576 Cumulative diagnoses +2,644 compared to yesterday
11,053 Existing severe illness +849 compared with yesterday
  1,524 Deaths +143 compared to yesterday

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #885 on: February 15, 2020, 05:03:31 AM »
Disease Modelers Gaze Into Computers To See Future of Covid-19 - and It Isn't Good
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/14/disease-modelers-see-future-of-covid-19/

For China: At least 550,000 cases. Maybe 4.4 million. Or something in between.

Like weather forecasters, researchers who use mathematical equations to project how bad a disease outbreak might become are used to uncertainties and incomplete data, and Covid-19, the disease caused by the new-to-humans coronavirus that began circulating in Wuhan, China, late last year, has those everywhere you look. That can make the mathematical models of outbreaks, with their wide range of forecasts, seem like guesswork gussied up with differential equations; the eightfold difference in projected Covid-19 cases in Wuhan, calculated by a team from the U.S. and Canada, isn’t unusual for the early weeks of an outbreak of a never-before-seen illness.

... Models are not intended to be scare machines, projecting worst-case possibilities. (Modelers prefer “project” to “predict,” to indicate that the outcomes they describe are predicated on numerous assumptions.) The idea is to calculate numerous what-ifs: What if schools and workplaces closed? What if public transit stopped? What if there were a 90% effective vaccine and half the population received it in a month?

“Our overarching goal is to minimize the spread and burden of infectious disease,” said Sara Del Valle, an applied mathematician and disease modeler at Los Alamos National Laboratory. By calculating the effects of countermeasures such as social isolation, travel bans, vaccination, and using face masks, modelers can “understand what’s going on and inform policymakers,” she said. For instance, although many face masks are too porous to keep viral particles out (or in), their message of possible contagion here! “keeps people away from you” and reduces disease spread, Del Valle said. “I’m a fan of face masks.”

.... “Bodies may react differently to an infection, which in turn can facilitate or inhibit the transmission of the pathogen to others,” Allard said. “The behavioral component is also very important. Can you afford to stay at home a few days or do you go to work even if you are sick? How many people do you meet every day? Do you live alone? Do you commute by car or public transportation?”

... When people’s chances of becoming infected vary, an outbreak is more likely to be eventually contained (by tracing contacts and isolating cases); it might reach a cumulative 550,000 cases in Wuhan, Allard and his colleagues concluded. If everyone has the same chance, as with flu (absent vaccination), the probability of containment is significantly lower and could reach 4.4 million there. Or as the researchers warn, “the outbreak almost certainly cannot be contained and we must prepare for a pandemic ….”

Modelers are also incorporating the time between when one person becomes ill and someone she infects does. If every case infects two people and that takes two days, then the epidemic doubles every two days. If every case infects two people and they get sick four days after the first, then the epidemic doubles every four days.

This “serial time” is related to how quickly a virus multiplies, and it can have a big effect. For a study published this month in Annals of Internal Medicine, researchers at the University of Toronto created an interactive tool that instantly updates projections based on different values of R0 and serial interval.

Interactive Tool: https://art-bd.shinyapps.io/nCov_control/
Study: https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2760912/reporting-epidemic-growth-reproduction-numbers-2019-novel-coronavirus-2019-ncov

Using an R0 of 2.3 and serial interval of seven days, they project 300,000 cases by next week. If the serial interval is even one day less, the number of cases blasts past 1.5 million by then. But if the countermeasures that China introduced in January, including isolating patients, encouraging people to wear face masks, and of course quarantining Wuhan, reduce the effective reproduction number, as has almost certainly happened, those astronomical numbers would plummet: to 100,000 and 350,000 cases, respectively.

Agent Based models

... Los Alamos researchers are still wrestling with their Covid-19 model, which is showing — incorrectly — the outbreak “exploding quite quickly in China,” Del Valle said. It is overestimating how many susceptible people become infected, probably because it’s not accurately accounting for social isolation and other countermeasures. Those seem to have reduced R0 toward the lower range of 2-to-5 that most modelers are using, she said.

In the current outbreak, researchers are building models not only to peek into the future but also to reality-check the present. Working backwards from confirmed infections in countries other than mainland China, researchers at Imperial College London who advise the World Health Organization estimated that Wuhan had 1,000 to 9,700 symptomatic cases as of Jan. 18. Three days later, all of mainland China had officially reported 440 cases, supporting the concerns of global health officials that China was undercounting.

In a more recent model run, Jonathan Read of England’s University of Lancaster and his colleagues estimated “that only about 1 in 20 infections were being detected” in late January, Read said: There were probably 11,090 to 33,490 infections in Wuhan as of Jan. 22, when China reported 547 cases. “It highlights how difficult it is to track down and identify this virus,” Read said, especially with residents of quarantined Wuhan being turned away from overwhelmed hospitals and clinics without being tested for the virus. Using a similar approach, modelers led by Dr. Wai-Kit Ming of Jinan University in Guangzhou estimated that through Jan. 31, China probably had 88,000 cases, not the 11,200 reported. ...
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #886 on: February 15, 2020, 05:11:13 AM »
-----------------------------------

Coronavirus Cases Rise To More Than 67,000 Globally
https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-15-20-intl-hnk/index.html

The novel coronavirus has now infected more than 67,000 people globally, the vast majority in mainland China. The death toll is at least 1,526, including three people outside mainland China.

---------------------------

Massive Medical Response As China Death Toll Reaches 1,523
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050773/coronavirus-hubei-reports-2420-new-cases-and-139-additional

Scale of medical help bigger than 2008 Wenchuan earthquake

... National Health Commission deputy director Wang Hesheng said China had sent 217 medical teams across provinces, including a total of 25,033 medical professionals to Hubei. These were in addition to the 181 teams of army doctors in Wuhan and a further 36 military medical teams in other cities in the province.

Wang said the scale of medical help had surpassed the assistance given to Wenchuan after the 2008 earthquake. He also pledged to make sure there was no “second Wuhan” in other cities or communities in the province.

Wang said more stadiums would be set aside for medical shelters to make sure all patients could be treated. So far, he said, existing medical shelters had 6,906 beds, of which 5,606 were occupied.

Jiao Yahui, deputy director of the National Health Commission, said there would be no cross-infections in the medical shelters because only confirmed cases with mild symptoms were admitted to these makeshift hospitals. She said the approach was valid because “the cost is low but it is effective.”

She said that by sending patients with mild symptoms to these medical shelters, beds in conventional hospitals could be spared for serious cases.

Jiao said 5,000 beds were available in hospitals designated for patients in a serious condition, adding that when medical teams from other provinces were bringing medical equipment for severe cases with them when they were sent to hospitals.

(... Today's statistics suggest over 11,000 severe cases for those 5000 beds)

Wang said more than half of the confirmed cases in Hubei were also being treated with traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) and TCM doctors had been participating in prevention and cure at the community level, distributing herbal medicine among residents.

----------------------------

Coronavirus Patient Fell Ill While on Vacation in Hawaii
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/14/us/coronavirus-hawaii-japan.html

A man who grew ill while on a vacation in Hawaii has tested positive for the coronavirus, health officials in Hawaii said on Friday. The man, who is in his 60s, had returned to his home in Japan, where he received the diagnosis this week.

Word of the man’s infection, which followed a visit to Hawaii in late January and early February, raised concerns among health officials in Hawaii, who said they were working to track down people the man had met during his time there.

Officials said that the man began showing symptoms of illness on Feb. 3, and wore a mask when he went outside the time-share, the Grand Waikikian by Hilton Grand Vacations, on Oahu.

Several days later, on Feb. 7, the couple returned to Japan. A day later, the man visited a hospital after developing a fever, but he was not admitted, Japan’s health ministry said. He learned he had pneumonia two days later, but was again released from a hospital.

On Thursday, he was taken in an ambulance to a hospital for the third time, and Hawaii health officials learned on Friday morning that he had tested positive for the coronavirus.

----------------------------

US Evacuating Citizens Aboard Quarantined Cruise Ship Off Japan
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-evacuate-some-americans-from-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-11581733214

The U.S. is evacuating its citizens and their families who are onboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship off Japan that has been quarantined for almost two weeks, according to the Wall Street[/i Journal, which cited an official from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

There will be two evacuation flights from Japan for around 380 people, the report said.

---------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #887 on: February 15, 2020, 06:58:44 AM »
How many of these severe cases will die ?

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #888 on: February 15, 2020, 09:20:44 AM »
How many of these severe cases will die ?

That is one of the pieces of data that would be very helpful to find.

The data is so messy now that it appears that what we really need is someone to have followed a sample of cases (say 100 early on) from first detection to resolution (death or recovery). And along the way detail what happened. How many had heart damage? How many required ventilators? Etc... How many died? And How many recovered? Also, what were the mean times to reach each stage (+standard deviations).

We have data similar to this, but which smears the data across different cohorts in time. Since this happened while the disease was rapidly expanding in numbers, those proportions are more difficult to translate back to a single cohort to get the proper ratios.

It looks like the disease was growing at a rate of 1.62 fold per day until Jan 25. The quarantines and other efforts then kicked in. Over the next several days until about Jan 30, the daily growth rate seems to have dropped to about 1.10. These growth rates can be converted to model gammas by taking the natural log of each. The R looks to have been about 4.2 +/-.  That seems to have been pushed down to about 1.75 +/-. If we knew what percentage of people don’t catch the virus (presumed to be about 15%), we could convert those to R0s. Those are likely about 5 and 2.1 respectively.

The case fatality rate is greater than 4% and likely about 10% for those who go to hospital. But we don’t know what percentage of infected people do go to hospital or how that may have changed over time.

We have scant information to address your question. As a swag it looks to be between 5-25%. But that is a swag and not at all actually useful.

As the physicians start using various antivirals and herbs, those proportions will hopefully go down a lot.

The kicker though is that with the recent reports on the very long delays in testing, and the other methods to confirm infection, the time factors are now all very uncertain. As a result, the models get bent all out of shape. And because of that, these various parameters become quite uncertain.

Then add cases like the story from Bloomberg of a patient who went to hospital, then was sent home, then went back ...etc... and basic questions arise. Was he counted once, twice ...?  He was tested several times and came up negative, then tested again and came up positive. When did he get counted as confirmed? The delays for cases like his then seriously distort basic data needed to calculate R0s, cfrs, and other factors. With the hospitals being over capacity, none of that is a surprise, other than that he was infectious and was sent back into the community. That is not good at all.

If we had tracing of a fixed cohort from start to finish, we could better nail down some of these factors, like the case fatality rate. That would help a lot in trying to estimate some of the other parameters.

I wish I could be more helpful.

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #889 on: February 15, 2020, 11:22:53 AM »
First coronavirus death confirmed in Europe

A Chinese tourist has died in France after contracting the new coronavirus - the first fatality from the disease outside Asia.

The victim was an 80-year-old woman from China's Hubei province, according to French Health Minister Agnès Buzyn.

She arrived in France on 16 January and was placed in quarantine in hospital on 25 January, she said.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-51514837
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #890 on: February 15, 2020, 11:47:04 AM »
How many of these severe cases will die ?
Another point is that, if this becomes widespread, then that number will go way up when medical services are overwhelmed.
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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #891 on: February 15, 2020, 12:20:37 PM »
New cases outside Hubei province, past 7 days (latest date top, 7 days ago bottom):

235
219
419
437
464
450
482

They might have a chance of stopping this by quarantining basically the whole country. I previously thought that impossibble but the numbers suggest otherwise

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #892 on: February 15, 2020, 12:52:50 PM »
How many of these severe cases will die ?
Another point is that, if this becomes widespread, then that number will go way up when medical services are overwhelmed.
Or maybe it won’t. The rest of the world knows what’s coming and is able to prepare. Effective treatments will be developed and medications tested.

Hubei, obviously, was caught completely off guard and had to learn everything as it happened.
In PIOMAS we trust

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #893 on: February 15, 2020, 01:30:13 PM »
.. following from el Cid's observations ..

.. or is not quarantining more effective .. half a city in lockdown produces almost all the victims .. half a city goes on holiday , equally infected and infectious but hardly infect anyone . It bemuses me .. unless lockdown and quarantine are the most dangerous things we can do .. b.c.


2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #894 on: February 15, 2020, 03:17:46 PM »
.. following from el Cid's observations ..

.. or is not quarantining more effective .. half a city in lockdown produces almost all the victims .. half a city goes on holiday , equally infected and infectious but hardly infect anyone . It bemuses me .. unless lockdown and quarantine are the most dangerous things we can do .. b.c.

Suggestion is that 70% stayed in Hubei province, and that is where most of the infections are.

54.4k out of 66.5k in Hubei is more than 70% and this may well be an underestimate, but half stayed and given difficulty of travel if seriously ill and inappropriateness of travel if showing symptoms ....

not sure this is bemusing

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #895 on: February 15, 2020, 03:26:33 PM »
bluice wrote on January 31: "Because of 5-6 days incubation period and the fact infection can hardly spread anymore we should be very close to peak coronavirus."

Will you have the honesty to admit that you were spectacularly wrong in this assessment?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #896 on: February 15, 2020, 03:38:24 PM »
67 More Coronavirus Cases Reported On Cruise Ship Near Tokyo
http://www.ecns.cn/m/news/society/2020-02-15/detail-ifztrmvi9819709.shtml

Another 67 people tested positive for the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Japan's health ministry said on Saturday. This brings the total number of people infected on board to 285.

... On Friday, elderly passengers with chronic illnesses and those who have been tested negative for the new virus were allowed to disembark.

About 380 Americans are aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which has docked at Yokohama, a port city southwest of Tokyo.

U.S. Embassy in Japan on Saturday said it will evacuate U.S. citizens from the ship amid concerns about deteriorating sanitary conditions on the vessel. A chartered aircraft will arrive in Japan on Sunday evening and leave Tokyo's Haneda airport the following day, the embassy said.

-------------------------------------

US Passenger from Westerdam Cruise Ship Infected, Malaysia Confirms
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3050814/coronavirus-us-passenger-westerdam-cruise-ship-infected

A US citizen who arrived in Malaysia after disembarking in Cambodia from the MS Westerdam cruise ship has tested positive for the new coronavirus, the Malaysia Health Ministry said on Saturday.

The 83-year-old American woman flew to Malaysia on Friday from Cambodia along with 144 others from the ship, said Malaysian health ministry, adding that her 85-year-old husband had tested negative.


The MS Westerdam, which had 1,455 passengers and 802 crew on board, had been stranded at sea for two weeks after being turned away from five countries – the Philippines, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and Thailand – over coronavirus fears, before docking at Cambodia on Thursday.



As of Saturday afternoon, more than half the 2,257 people on board had disembarked the cruise ship, a Cambodian official said.

In a dockside news conference on Saturday while passengers were disembarking, US Ambassador W. Patrick Murphy said there were more than 600 people on board the Westerdam who were American citizens.



All the passengers were expected to have been sent on their way by Sunday.

--------------------------------------

Singapore Reports 5 New Cases, as City State Discharges One Patient
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3050812/coronavirus-singapore-reports-5-new-cases-city-state

The new cases bring the total number of infections to 72

All five cases were linked to previous clusters and cases
« Last Edit: February 15, 2020, 04:20:23 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #897 on: February 15, 2020, 03:54:59 PM »
Coronavirus Fears Expose a Cultural Divide Over Masks in the San Gabriel Valley
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/coronavirus-fears-expose-a-cultural-divide-over-masks-in-the-san-gabriel-valley/ar-BBZXOB1


An Asian shopper exits El Superior Market wearing a protective masks while a Latino shopper enters without a mask on February 6, 2020 in El Monte, California. Many members of the Asian community are wearing protective masks to prevent coronavirus and members of the Latino community are not.

Marta Ayala and Chong Taing, both Rosemead residents, couldn't see the threat of the coronavirus more differently. You can see it on their faces.

... Despite hearing about the fast-spreading illness, to the 64-year-old Mexican immigrant, the mask is an overreaction that just stokes alarm.

"I don't believe in using masks and I don't understand the need," she said. "I know there's a serious disease out there, but who has time to think about that?"


... For the 39-year-old Taing, who wears a mask, the item makes as much sense as wearing long-sleeve shirts or sunglasses to protect from the sun. The masks aren't just designed to protect the person wearing them from illness, but to protect others as well. It's a common courtesy in a place he calls "the 626" — the area code-based nickname for the San Gabriel Valley.

"People wearing masks are being considerate," Taing said. "Yes, we're going to wash our hands, but we're going to take extra precautions when we pick up our kids, do our shopping and go outside. We want to avoid getting sick as much as anyone, and at least we're taking steps to do that."

... News about the coronavirus also doesn't dominate Spanish-language media the way it does Chinese-language media.

Many Latino residents interviewed by The Times described the virus as "distant" and "nothing to be worried about," while some expressed skepticism.

"I heard the word 'contagious' with the virus and if I hear it gets bad here, then I'll do it," said Elizabeth Robles, 26, of El Monte, of wearing a mask. "But, I haven't seen anything here yet."

--------------------------------------

Coronavirus: First Hong Kong and Singapore, Now ‘Virus-Free’ Indonesia Hit By Panic Buying
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3050731/coronavirus-first-hong-kong-and-singapore-now-virus

Frantic customers throwing any non-perishable items they can get their hands on into shopping trolleys. Face masks, disinfectants and floor cleaners vanishing from pharmacy shelves, with no replacement stock available.

These have been some of the disturbing regional fallouts from the deadly coronavirus outbreak, with multiple instances reported in Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan.

The same thing is now happening in Indonesia. The only question is why?

... In Jakarta on Thursday and Friday, a random search of commercial pharmacies near the centre of the Indonesian capital, ranging from high-end shopping malls to slum neighbourhoods, found masks, antiseptic tissue wipes and household cleaners were all sold out. There have been similar reports from multiple cities across the archipelago nation of more than 260 million people, particularly shortages of face masks



... These fears have found expression online. On one popular Indonesian e-commerce site, the price of a 12.5-ounce (354-gram) can of the international brand Lysol disinfectant spray has nearly quadrupled from about US$6 to US$22. A 19-ounce can for sale online in the South Sumatran city of Palembang is going for more than US$50.

The one phrase Rampen keeps hearing at every store she visits? “Sold out,” she said.

---------------------------------

Chinese Banks Disinfect Banknotes to Stop Spread of Coronavirus
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/15/chinese-banks-disinfect-banknotes-to-stop-spread-of-coronavirus

China is disinfecting and isolating used banknotes as part of efforts to stop the spread of the coronavirus that has killed more than 1,500 people, officials have said.

Banks use ultraviolet light or high temperatures to disinfect yuan bills, then seal and store the cash for seven to 14 days – depending on the severity of the outbreak in a particular region – before recirculating them, China’s central bank said at a press conference.

... Fan Yifei, the deputy governor of China’s central bank, said on Saturday that banks had been urged to provide new banknotes to customers whenever possible.

The central bank made an “emergency issuance” of 4bn yuan in new notes to Hubei province, the centre of the outbreak, before the recent lunar new year holiday, Fan added.

The measures are intended to “secure the public’s safety and health when using cash”, Fan said.

But it is unclear how wide an impact the central bank’s disinfection work will have, with increasing numbers of Chinese people preferring mobile payments over cash in recent years.

In 2017, nearly three-quarters of Chinese respondents told an Ipsos survey they could survive a whole month without using more than 100 yuan in cash.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2020, 04:43:24 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #898 on: February 15, 2020, 05:36:23 PM »

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-beijing-returnees-quarantine-virus-death.html

------------------------------

Q&A: Testing for coronavirus in China
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-qa-coronavirus-china.html

How does China test for COVID-19? ...

Who qualifies for testing? ...

Why is Hubei counting differently? ...

What are the key challenges to testing? ...

---------------------------------

New Technology May Significantly Reduce Diagnostic Time of Coronavirus
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-technology-significantly-diagnostic-coronavirus.html

Using a new technology developed by Dr. Amos Danielli, of the Alexander Kofkin Faculty of Engineering at Bar-Ilan University, saliva tests can be analyzed within 15 minutes. The technology has already been proven to reduce the diagnostic time of Zika virus and is currently being used in the Israel Ministry of Health's central virology laboratory at Tel Hashomer Hospital.

Dr. Danielli's lab has developed a technology for sensitive detection of virus-specific RNA sequences by attaching the virus' RNA to a fluorescent molecule that emits light when illuminated by a laser beam. At very low concentrations of RNA, the signal emitted is so low that existing devices cannot detect it. "If we think of the saliva of a corona patient filling an entire room, then this laser beam can be compared to the size of a fist and at low concentrations of virus RNA, there might be only 2-3 fluorescent molecules within that fist," explains Danielli. Adding magnetic particles to the solution enables them to adhere to the fluorescent molecules. This enables a greater concentration of fluorescent molecules and a much more accurate measurement.

By properly positioning them, we were able to create a strong magnetic field and collect all the thousands of fluorescent molecules from the entire solution and aggregate them inside the laser beam, thereby multiplying the signal strength by several orders of magnitude.

(not instrument agnostic ... fishing for investor)

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Are Coronavirus Tests Flawed?
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51491763

There are deep concerns laboratory tests are incorrectly telling people they are free of the coronavirus.

Stories in several countries suggest people are having up to six negative results before finally being diagnosed.

Meanwhile, officials in the epicentre of the epidemic, Hubei province, China, have started counting people with symptoms rather than using the tests for final confirmation.

In the US, meanwhile, Dr Nancy Messonnier, of the the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, says some of its tests are producing "inconclusive" results.

... One possible explanation is the tests are accurate and the patients do not have coronavirus at the time of testing

"Maybe they weren't infected when first tested. "Then, over the course of time, they became infected and later tested positive for the coronavirus. That's a possibility."

... Another option is the patients do have the coronavirus but it is at such an early stage, there is not enough to detect. "But that doesn't make sense after six tests," Dr MacDermott says.

... Alternatively, there could be a problem with the way the tests are being conducted. There are throat swabs and then there are throat swabs.

... A final option is the RT-PCR test for the new coronavirus is based on flawed science.

In order to develop the test, researchers must first pick a section of the virus's genetic code. This is known as the primer. It binds with the matching code in the virus and helps bulk it up. Scientists try to pick a region of the virus's code they do not think will mutate.

But if there is a poor match between the primer and the virus in the patient, then an infected patient could get a negative result.

At this stage, it is impossible to tell exactly what is going on so lessons for other countries are unclear.



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Experts Explain Necessary Respiratory Protection for COVID-19
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/unmasked-experts-explain-necessary-respiratory-protection-covid-19

... Bruce Ribner, MD, medical director of the Serious Communicable Diseases Unit at Emory University Hospital, said the two masks [surgical masks vs N95 respirators] serve very different functions. A surgical mask, or procedural mask, is meant to protect the environment from the wearer.

"It's meant to keep the surgeon's respiratory issues away from a patient," Ribner explained. A surgical mask does a good job of trapping large droplets, and some aerosol transmission, he said. Many of the masks being worn in China, though, are not designed for medical use or to any standards and so their effectiveness in trapping droplets is unknown.

A respirator, such as an N95, fits tighter to the face and is meant to help protect the wearer from inhaling infectious droplets in the environment.

"We don't really know how the coronavirus is being transmitted from person to person, because no one has done the NIOSH studies that simulate the cough big droplets that land 3 to 6 feet away from a person or the little droplets that can travel long distances and in air handling system," Ribner said. "So we have to use what we know about other coronaviruses and influenza when it comes to this disease."

... Though Chinese officials said earlier this week that they believe the coronavirus is transmitted only via droplets, implying they do not believe airborne or contact transmission plays a role, Milton said that statement is likely rooted in fear, not science.

"You cannot tell the difference epidemiologically between something aerosol transmitted by weak sources and large droplet spray," said Milton. "They behave so similar, it's very hard to pick up the difference."

He said he suspects the capability of long-distance transmission with COVID-19 will be connected to source strength, or how symptomatic a person is.

.... "If we have a person who is shedding nCoV in the environment, the best way to stop transmission is to stick a surgical procedure mask on them," Ribner said. "In the best of all worlds, anyone coming into the room with an nCoV patient would wear a respirator."
« Last Edit: February 15, 2020, 05:59:32 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #899 on: February 15, 2020, 06:38:01 PM »
.. following from el Cid's observations ..

.. or is not quarantining more effective .. half a city in lockdown produces almost all the victims .. half a city goes on holiday , equally infected and infectious but hardly infect anyone . It bemuses me .. unless lockdown and quarantine are the most dangerous things we can do .. b.c.

I think it's still a few weeks to early to come to that conclusion. The first infections were already in December. It started to run out of control in Wuhan after the 20th of january. If the people that left the city infected a few people in the countryside, or any other place. Than it should only start to pick up from now on.