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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 66

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 284851 times)

Grubbegrabben

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #900 on: February 15, 2020, 07:39:23 PM »
Quote
Another 67 people tested positive for the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Japan's health ministry said on Saturday. This brings the total number of people infected on board to 285.

... On Friday, elderly passengers with chronic illnesses and those who have been tested negative for the new virus were allowed to disembark.

Japanese government trying to limit the fallout from their decision to quarantine a ship which had multiple COVID-19 cases to start with. Now, they're releasing multiple passengers, quite possibly infected (see elswhere in this thread where up to 6 tests are negative and the 7:th is positive). It's like trapping a rabid rat in a box with 3000 other rats and then release them all some random time later. I have no idea what's the thinking behind all this is but it seems like they are making one stupid mistake after another, it's like they want a big COVID-19 outbreak outside China and taking steps to ensure that it will happen.

Grubbegrabben

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #901 on: February 15, 2020, 09:16:20 PM »
Quote
Eight more COVID-19 infections confirmed in Tokyo as Japan sees spate of domestic transmissions

Eight people in Tokyo, three more who have connections to a hospital in Wakayama Prefecture and one person in Nagoya tested positive for COVID-19 on Saturday as Japan struggles with a daily increase in the number of domestic cases of the virus.

Seven of the eight people in Tokyo had had close contact with a taxi driver who this week tested positive for the coronavirus, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government said.

The remaining person in Tokyo is a businessman in his 40s and is in serious condition in hospital. After showing symptoms such as coughing and fever last Monday, the man made a business trip on a Tokaido Shinkansen bullet train to Aichi Prefecture, metro officials said, adding that he has not traveled to China recently.

Source: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/15/national/eight-coronavirus-infections-confirmed-tokyo-japan-sees-spate-domestic-transmissions/#.XkhRHGhKiCg

be cause

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #902 on: February 15, 2020, 09:36:39 PM »
we can forget the Olympics this year .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

interstitial

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #903 on: February 15, 2020, 10:28:12 PM »
i read 50000 people die from the flue every year  :'(  but since most are old and often have other health problems few notice. Not to be crass but given that i wonder what the spread of ages looks like for those who have died. Other than a few infants the only ages i have heard are 70+.

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #904 on: February 15, 2020, 10:31:10 PM »
The whistle-blowing doktor was 41, and he's gone.

oren

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #905 on: February 15, 2020, 10:35:20 PM »
The death percentage and serious condition rate from the Covid-19 is much higher than from the flue, judging from available data.

Paddy

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #906 on: February 15, 2020, 11:41:03 PM »
The whistle-blowing doktor was 41, and he's gone.

34

sark

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #907 on: February 16, 2020, 01:03:53 AM »
It's been 7 days and people are still arguing about the fire at the coal staging yard right here.  good grief.

showing my expert analysis using NASA WorldView and a hacker image program with actual layers https://imgur.com/a/3jCmrJm

Here's a link to the location on Google Maps https://www.google.com/maps/place/30%C2%B038'27.5%22N+114%C2%B026'45.6%22E/@30.640984,114.443792,977m

weight of a natural pile https://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/stockpile-volume-d_1532.html

volume of coal to weight https://www.aqua-calc.com/calculate/volume-to-weight

i dunno, definitions https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/coal-yard

to estimate the capacity of the yards http://www.matts-place.com/trains/coal/coaltrain_basics.htm

Each pad has a capacity of about 15,000 tons or the weight of a full 120 car coal train.  They will need to stack coal somewhere else as the yards here are on fire.  It's two days of full capacity of the nearby powerplant combustion but whatever is there is burning as an open pile.

Hope they didn't lose the plant.  It is like Armageddon there right now.
I am not a scientist

sark

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #908 on: February 16, 2020, 01:09:24 AM »
It's not hard to pinpoint a fire detection or match up 2 layers in gimp.  I'm just giving a location.  clearly it was the coal staging pads that went up.  no idea what was there.  no idea how much was burned.  JUST the location. OK?  30.640984, 114.445986

« Last Edit: February 16, 2020, 01:15:34 AM by sark »
I am not a scientist

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #909 on: February 16, 2020, 01:32:19 AM »
Hubei’s health authorities reported 1,843 new cases and 139 more deaths as of Feb. 15.

------------------------------

Coronavirus Update: 17 People in Delhi Show Symptoms, They Returned From Abroad Before Mid January
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/coronavirus-update-17-people-in-delhi-show-symptoms-they-returned-from-abroad-before-mid-january/ar-BB101QeK

Seventeen people, out of a large number of passengers who had arrived in Delhi from China and other coronavirus-affected countries before the screening at the airport began around mid-January, have been found symptomatic for the infection and hospitalised, officials said.

... Efforts are on to trace the passengers from Delhi who travelled on or after January 15 to China and other countries, and returned to Delhi before the airport screening process began,' he said.

-----------------------

Coronavirus Spreads to Further Distant Parts of Japan
http://www.asahi.com/sp/ajw/articles/13130630

Dozens of cases and their stories. This is 'catchier' than Measles ...

The latest cases include two people in Tokyo who had contact with a taxi driver in his 70s who had already been confirmed to have the virus.

Officials said one of the two in Tokyo is a man in his 70s who works for a “yakatabune” party boat company in Tokyo and tested positive for the virus. He recalled serving passengers from Wuhan, China, where the outbreak started, on either Jan. 15 or 16.

The infected taxi driver attended a New Year’s party for independent taxi drivers held on a yakatabune on Jan. 18.

About 80 people took part in the New Year’s party and about 10 developed fevers and other symptoms.
Those 80 and another 20 or so who were in close contact with the taxi driver will also be tested.

... According to health ministry officials, a man in his 30s who works in local government in Kanagawa Prefecture also tested positive for the coronavirus.

It emerged that he spent about 40 minutes on the afternoon of Feb. 10 helping to transport infected passengers on the Diamond Princess to local medical institutions. He wore goggles and a face mask during that time.

---------------------------

Japanese Woman Now has Coronavirus after Husband Contracted Disease Following Recent Hawaii Trip

The couple, in their 60s, were on Maui from Jan. 28 to Feb. 3 and on Oahu from Feb. 3 to 7 and stayed at the Grand Waikikian by Hilton Grand Vacations Club timeshare property. It is unclear where they stayed while on Maui.

The man developed a 102-degree fever Feb. 8 and was tested positive for the virus, called COVID-19, according to Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. His wife had a low-grade fever on Feb. 14 and headaches, the ministry said. She has now contracted the coronavirus, according to Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.

Hilton Grand Vacations informed owners, guests and employees in a letter Friday about the former guest diagnosed with the virus. ... “Although we remain open as usual, we are also working with all current and future guests at the Grand Waikikian to ensure they have the flexibility to change any of their travel plans,” said spokeswoman Megumi Haubner.

As the situation worsens in Japan with at least two deaths resulting from the virus, Hawai'i Gov. David Ige is traveling to the country today for a series of meetings to “promote and expand travel to Hawaii and make access easier through pre-clearance flights from Japan.

-----------------------

Liner Passengers Can’t Leave Malaysia (2:45 p.m. NY)

Some passengers from the Westerdam luxury liner were blocked from leaving Malaysia after an 83-year-old U.S. woman from the ship tested positive for the coronavirus, the Dutch RIVM National Institute for Public Health and the Environment said by phone.

The travelers who left when the ship docked in Cambodia and headed to Malaysia were denied boarding an Amsterdam-bound flight from Kuala Lumpur, according to the Dutch foreign ministry. Two were Dutch citizens, both RIVM and the foreign ministry said. They remained in Malaysia, along with a group of Dutch citizens that may have had contact with the infected woman, who also remains in the country. The RIVM estimates 11 people weren’t able to board.

---------------------------
« Last Edit: February 16, 2020, 01:45:30 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #910 on: February 16, 2020, 02:11:11 AM »
截至 2020-02-15 16:53 全国数据统计
数据说明

57,493 现存确诊 +543 较昨日
  8,228 现存疑似 +1,918 较昨日
11,272 现存重症 +219 较昨日
68,584 累计确诊 +2,009 较昨日
  1,666 累计死亡 +142 较昨日
  9,425 累计治愈 +1,324 较昨日

As of 2020-02-15 16:53 National Statistics
the data shows

57,493 Existing Diagnoses         +543 since yesterday
  8,228 Suspected                  +1,918 since yesterday
11,272 Existing Severe              +219 since yesterday
68,584 Cumulative Diagnoses +2,009 since yesterday
  1,666 Cumulative Deaths         +142 since yesterday
  9,425 Cumulative Healing     +1,324 since yesterday

Johns Hopkins

69,092 Confirmed
  1,666 Deaths
  9,420 Recovered
« Last Edit: February 16, 2020, 02:33:59 AM by Sam »

Sebastian Jones

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #911 on: February 16, 2020, 03:41:29 AM »
It's been 7 days and people are still arguing about the fire at the coal staging yard right here.  good grief.

showing my expert analysis using NASA WorldView and a hacker image program with actual layers https://imgur.com/a/3jCmrJm


Hope they didn't lose the plant.  It is like Armageddon there right now.

First I've heard of this Sark, and Mr. Google returns nothing to the search string "Wuhan Coal yard fire".
Can you expand on this for us?

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #912 on: February 16, 2020, 04:14:12 AM »


--------------------------

Hong Kong  Residents Fleeing Covid-19 Outbreak Confronted with Hard Decisions about Jobs, Children’s Schooling
https://www.scmp.com/business/article/3050643/hongkongers-and-residents-fleeing-covid-19-outbreak-confronted-hard

Government’s decision to close all schools to help contain the outbreak gives exodus a fillip
Illness threatens city’s ability to keep and attract talent

As a cordon sanitaire tightened around Hong Kong and the local population stockpiled surgical masks, rice and toilet paper, local flag carrier Cathay Pacific quietly laid on extra flights to far-flung destinations such as New York and Vancouver so that people could escape the city.

Sami Hine joined the throngs deserting Hong Kong to wait out the new coronavirus. She frantically searched for a mask for her child to wear on the plane. “I’m flying back to the UK tomorrow night with my daughter to escape this virus madness,” she said in a local chat group for mums. Others commented on the thread that they too were leaving.

... “I just left on the last flight out of Hong Kong that United Airlines is allowing … will most likely return when United Airlines allows flights back,” Derek Chapman said in a chat group for expats in Hong Kong on Friday, February 7.

The Hong Kong government’s decision to close all schools and kindergartens to help contain the spread of the deadly virus has also given the exodus a fillip.

The exodus has also separated family members, with breadwinners staying back in Hong Kong to work. “I sent my family home to Canada. ... Eric Hung said in a chat group. “I’m staying put,” he added. “Still gotta work and pay bills.”

“We dropped the kids (4 and 6) off with [their] grandparents in Ireland and have managed to get them into school/preschool there,” Alexandra Byrne said in a post. “Heartbreaking dropping them off not quite knowing when you’ll see them again.”

... The exodus in Hong Kong is reminiscent of foreigners and locals fleeing Japan in the wake of the 2011 earthquake, tsunami and radiation leak. Offended locals who carried on working throughout the crisis, disparagingly nicknamed the escapees “flyjin”, a play on gaijin, the Japanese word for foreigners.

--------------------------



--------------------------

Intensive Care Doctor Tells of a Hospital Teetering on Collapse in Wuhan
https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-14/intensive-care-doctor-tells-of-a-hospital-teetering-on-collapse-in-wuhan-101515547.html

In Depth: How Wuhan Lost Its Grip on Thousands of Suspected Coronavirus Cases
https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-07/in-depth-how-wuhan-lost-its-grip-on-thousands-of-suspected-coronavirus-cases-101512852.html
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #913 on: February 16, 2020, 04:41:33 AM »
Quote
Hong Kong  Residents Fleeing Covid-19 Outbreak Confronted with Hard Decisions about Jobs, Children’s Schooling

So, this is a problem.  Asymptomatic up to 22 days. May be infectious during that time.

Quote
The Hong Kong government’s decision to close all schools and kindergartens to help contain the spread of the deadly virus has also given the exodus a fillip.

I'm sure every single one of these poor people had a very good reason why they know they are not infected. I just hope they find no school for at least 22 days so the risk assessment is obeyed. The parent's jobs should be to school the children at home for at least 22 days. It would be nice if they all wore masks when going outside.

Quote
The exodus in Hong Kong is reminiscent of foreigners and locals fleeing Japan in the wake of the 2011 earthquake, tsunami and radiation leak. Offended locals who carried on working throughout the crisis, disparagingly nicknamed the escapees “flyjin”, a play on gaijin, the Japanese word for foreigners.

My experience with hurricanes and earthquakes is that when the going gets tough, those who can, leave.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2020, 04:48:50 AM by Archimid »
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #914 on: February 16, 2020, 07:26:25 AM »
It's just a breeding machine ...

Diamond Princess Coronavirus Cases Jump by 70, Taking Total to 355 On Cruise Ship
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-16/diamond-princess-coronavirus-cases-70-more-confirmed/11970134?pfmredir=sm

Seventy more passengers and crew on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship have tested positive for the coronavirus.

355 cases on board the ship have now been confirmed, just under 10 per cent of the 3,700 passengers and crew on board

Thirty-eight of the 70 new infections have no symptoms.
No-one from the ship has died of the virus.

"We must anticipate a spread of infections from now and must build medical systems and so on to focus efforts to prevent people from becoming gravely ill or dying," Japanese Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said on state broadcaster NHK.

So far authorities have done 1,219 tests on the approximately 3,700 passengers and crew, with the total number of cases from on board the ship now at 355.

The Diamond Princess has been quarantined since arriving in Yokohama on February 3

The cruise liner's quarantine is set to end on Wednesday.

--------------------------

Experts Call for Anti-Coronavirus Plan, Fearing It Is Spreading Widely In Japan
http://www.asahi.com/sp/ajw/articles/13132892

Infectious diseases experts are warning that Japan should draw up countermeasures against the new coronavirus under the assumption that human-to-human transmission is now spreading widely.

The government is summoning medical experts on Feb. 16 to discuss the expansion of the testing of suspected patients for COVID-19 and guidelines for when to seek medical assistance and treatment.

The government’s meeting comes following reports over the past few days of a growing number of infected patients in Japan with no apparent links to Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, in China’s Hubei province.

“There is the possibility that the infection may have spread to people well beyond the groups of patients who have been identified,” said Koji Wada, professor of public health at the International University of Health and Welfare.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2020, 07:40:56 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

sark

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #915 on: February 16, 2020, 08:02:49 AM »
Quote
First I've heard of this Sark, and Mr. Google returns nothing to the search string "Wuhan Coal yard fire".
Can you expand on this for us?

http://viirsfire.geog.umd.edu/pages/mapsData.php

Looking at Suomi NPP 375m https://viirsland.gsfc.nasa.gov/PDF/VIIRS_activefire_User_Guide.pdf

And NOAA-20 NPP VIIRS http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/npp/

some background info http://www.un-spider.org/news-and-events/news/detecting-forest-fires-satellites-modis-and-viirs

Basically there's a rumor that started 7 days ago around fire detections in China.  Windy.com showed a spike in SO2 and NOx with fire detections in this area, I believe delivered from the CAMS 40km model for fire detections and GEOS-5 22km for SO2.  I'm finding Windy is extremely difficult to use although it is pretty, so the sources for Windy are not exactly clear to me at the moment.

Wouldn't expect there to be a news article since we hear almost nothing from inside China.

Fire detections are ongoing and detected by multiple NPP enviro-sats.  Confidence is high and radiative power is in the 750-1500MW* range.  Location is on the order of within 100 meters of what appears to be coal staging yards outside of Wuhan Iron and Steel Co and linked with a couple of coal power plants nearby.  Didn't check the date of imagery.

"Update: Rise in sulfur dioxide could be sign of mass cremations in Wuhan" Taiwan News

So Taiwan News is reporting rumors of open cremations based on Windy and Twitter comments and the "debunking" has been trotted out and all of it has been utter trash journalism, from all sides.

After 7 days I kept seeing confusion surrounding this event saying it's all from models (you know how it is) so I sat down to pinpoint the location and find some sources in case anyone is interested.

It's pretty likely there are lots of industrial accident fires and open garbage burning especially of medical waste all over China.  These coal piles can go up spontaneously and both the power and scale of the observations are consistent with an open coal burn.  I'm just putting it within 100 meters of that coal staging yard.

*edit: that has to be a mistake.  not that hot I don't think.  but fire detections ongoing nonetheless
« Last Edit: February 16, 2020, 10:06:42 PM by sark »
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bluice

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #916 on: February 16, 2020, 10:21:08 AM »
bluice wrote on January 31: "Because of 5-6 days incubation period and the fact infection can hardly spread anymore we should be very close to peak coronavirus."

Will you have the honesty to admit that you were spectacularly wrong in this assessment?
Yes dear, it’s quite obvious I was mistaken  :D

To quote master Yoda: “Hard to predict, the future is.”

oren

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #917 on: February 16, 2020, 11:12:31 AM »
Thank you Sark, the secret mass cremations story was clear rumor-mongering, but it's good to have actual information about the issue.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #918 on: February 16, 2020, 12:06:51 PM »
bluice wrote on January 31: "Because of 5-6 days incubation period and the fact infection can hardly spread anymore we should be very close to peak coronavirus."

Will you have the honesty to admit that you were spectacularly wrong in this assessment?
Yes dear, it’s quite obvious I was mistaken  :D

To quote master Yoda: “Hard to predict, the future is.”
It’s easy to make predictions of the future.
It’s hard to make accurate predictions of the future.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #919 on: February 16, 2020, 01:34:10 PM »


-----------------------------

American From Cruise Ship Tests Positive for Second Time in Malaysia https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/16/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-death-toll-rises.html

An American woman who was previously aboard the MS Westerdam cruise ship in Cambodia has been tested positive after a second test for the coronavirus in Malaysia, local health authorities said Sunday.

The results came after hundreds of passengers were already allowed to leave the ship, and authorities say that more than 140 of those passengers traveled through Malaysia’s Kuala Lumpur airport. Many of them traveled to onward destinations in the U.S., Europe and Australia, officials said.

-----------------------------

China’s Hubei Province Banning Vehicle Traffic to Contain Outbreak

China’s Hubai province, home to the city of Wuhan and the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, will ban pedestrian and vehicle traffic to contain its spread, local government officials said Sunday. Service vehicles including ambulances, police cars and those carrying essential goods will be except from the ban.

-------------------------------

Taiwan Confirms First Coronavirus Death on Island
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/16/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-death-toll-rises.html

Taiwanese health authorities announced the first death from the coronavirus on the island on Sunday. The deceased was a man in his 60s who had not traveled overseas and had hepatitis B and diabetes, Taiwan’s Health Minister Chen Shih-chung told media. Taiwan has 20 confirmed cases of the virus.

------------------------------

Coronavirus Is a Data Time Bomb
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/02/coronaviruss-effects-on-global-markets-will-be-delayed/606508/

So far, less than 0.0008 percent of the humans on Earth have been diagnosed with the coronavirus known as COVID-19. But thanks to the circulation of disease and capital, the whole world has been affected.

Any company—including Apple and Walmart—that brings things in from China has to worry about production and distribution slowdowns.

What makes this all so strange is that a mosaic of facts is known about the economic consequences of coronavirus, but the arrival of those consequences outside China will be delayed, and their magnitude is uncertain.

What Target and other executives are worried about today will actually show up for shoppers in April. You might think that financial markets, at least, would be “pricing in” the problems, but share prices are at record highs. Coronavirus has likely already dealt many of its economic blows—and now those disruptions will trickle through the networks that connect China to the rest of the global economy.

Companies and governments need statistics to understand what’s happening in the world. The U.S. government, for example, maintains a complex data-gathering operation: the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, certain survey programs of the Census, the National Agricultural Statistics Service, the Economic Research Service, and many others. The data that these organizations publish take time to reflect on-the-ground commerce. Under normal conditions, this may not be significant. But when the economy suffers a globe-altering shock, statistical windows on the world can be dangerously out of step with reality.

... Pollution near Shanghai, a reliable and hard-to-fake indicator of economic activity, has plummeted, according to Morgan Stanley.
https://twitter.com/M_PaulMcNamara/status/1226814607156826113?s=20

Container ships are sailing with smaller than normal cargo loads. Prices for bulk carriers that move iron ore and coal have collapsed.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/coronavirus-toll-on-shipping-reaches-350-million-a-week-11581366671
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-10/shipping-is-getting-smashed-by-coronavirus-in-more-ways-than-one

Quote
... “Suddenly, all supply chains seem vulnerable because so many Chinese supply chains within supply chains within supply chains rely on each other for parts and raw materials”

One upshot for Americans is likely, though: Even if the worst of the outbreak is over—and it might not be—bad economic news may well be in our future.

-----------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

oren

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #920 on: February 16, 2020, 01:43:46 PM »
How long will the Japanese maintain business as usual, and no Plan B for the Olympics? Considering that the Covid-19 appears to be freely circulating now in Japan, but in small numbers for now - will they take the Chinese way of trying to halt the spread with serious economic costs, or will they take the politician's way of kicking the can down the road buying a little bit of time but with a big risk later? This can is not going to be kicked very far, but I suspect they will still try to avoid taking painful steps that might affect the economy (and stock market). Good luck.

crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #921 on: February 16, 2020, 01:50:17 PM »

It’s easy to make predictions of the future.
It’s hard to make accurate predictions of the future.

bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51519055
Quote
Coronavirus: China announces drop in new cases for third straight day

Confirmed cases last three days
4004
2646
2041

New suspected cases last 7 days
4008
3536
3342
2807
2450
2277
1918

Deaths running at about 140 per day and recorded recoveries running around 1330.
A little more fall in the new suspected cases and a little more growth in recoveries and we might soon be at a local peak in recorded and suspected cases.

There will be lots more unrecorded recoveries and unrecorded infections.

It seems quite easy to get an optimistic view of believing the figures show the lockdowns are working well and there is probably more recoveries than infections.

It is also easy to imagine people deciding they are better off hoping to recover without help than seeking help such that the figures don't show the picture at all.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #922 on: February 16, 2020, 02:49:03 PM »
Exclusive: Chinese doctors say Wuhan coronavirus reinfection even deadlier
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197
Quote
According to the message forwarded to Taiwan News, “It’s highly possible to get infected a second time. A few people recovered from the first time by their own immune system, but the meds they use are damaging their heart tissue, and when they get it the second time, the antibody doesn’t help but makes it worse, and they die a sudden death from heart failure.”
I thought that once you recover from a virus you are immune...at least for a long time.
The reason you keep getting colds and flus is because there are dozens of different varieties of these diseases.
Am I wrong, or is Covid-19 mutating so fast?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

be cause

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #923 on: February 16, 2020, 03:44:02 PM »
wili .. even the WHO ? are getting predictions wrong . So , probably , am I .. however .. I wish I was getting more wrong . My fear the 'prison ship' off Japan would be a disaster is being realised .
  My early certainty this was no SARS but much more dangerous is already self-evident . Deaths in China are fast approaching 5X the final SARS total and recorded infected are @ 12 X SARS already . China .
  More than half SARS deaths were outside China .. will this be true of COVID 19 too ?  if so we are scarcely past the beginning of the beginning of a Pandemic . I wish blueice had been correct and I was the humble pie muncher .. b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #924 on: February 16, 2020, 03:52:25 PM »
Quote
New suspected cases last 7 days

That's great news. The sum of the efforts seems to be working. Unless there are very large hotspots that are yet undetected, the data seems to be in line with reality.

On reinfection. The evidence for this is simply not there. I don't doubt if there have been reinfections like it could happen with any viral infection, but the numbers would look much worse if reinfection was a common thing.

A much bigger worry is the long term effect of Covid19. It might have none. It might have severe ones.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #925 on: February 16, 2020, 04:17:51 PM »
Quote from: SharedHumanity
... There are more genetic differences between a Nigerian and Kenyan than there are between a Kenyan and a Swede. 
Can you share a peer-reviewed reference to qualify that opinion ... otherwise your creating a distraction that is going nowhere.

"Comparative studies of ethnically diverse human populations, particularly in Africa, are important for reconstructing human evolutionary history and for understanding the genetic basis of phenotypic adaptation and complex disease. African populations are characterized by greater levels of genetic diversity, extensive population substructure, and less linkage disequilibrium (LD) among loci compared to non-African populations."

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2953791/

This is not surprising as the modern human has spent far more time in Africa than the relative short space of time on the rest of earth as humans left Africa and spread rapidly across the planet. So, when people say something like "the genetic diversity between races", they are talking out of their ass and it says far more about themselves than science. I would strongly suggest this discussion talk about genetic differences between subgroups because race is a social construct with no meaning or proper role in scientific discussions.




« Last Edit: February 16, 2020, 05:37:27 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #926 on: February 16, 2020, 04:39:04 PM »
“There is the possibility that the infection may have spread to people well beyond the groups of patients who have been identified,” said Koji Wada, professor of public health at the International University of Health and Welfare.

Uhhhh...do you think?

Given what we already know about this virus, attempting to identify everyone infected in order to quarantine them is futile and a waste of valuable resources. Certainly, medical officials should explain that self quarantining is useful to avoid transmission to family members but the focus needs to shift to care for those infected.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #927 on: February 16, 2020, 04:44:45 PM »
Thank you Sark, the secret mass cremations story was clear rumor-mongering, but it's good to have actual information about the issue.

As is the crap that the new coronavirus escaped from a lab in Wuhan where China was attempting to weaponize it.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2020, 05:18:01 PM by Shared Humanity »

wili

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #928 on: February 16, 2020, 04:49:14 PM »
tom:
Quote
“There is some evidence that people can be reinfected with the four coronaviruses and that there is no long-lasting immunity,” Dr. Susan Kline, an infectious disease specialist at of the University of Minnesota.

“Like rhinoviruses [which cause the common cold], you could be infected multiple times over your life. You can mount an antibody response, but it wanes, so on subsequent exposure you don’t have protection.” Subsequent infections often produce milder illness, however.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Shared Humanity

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #929 on: February 16, 2020, 04:53:49 PM »
One upshot for Americans is likely, though: Even if the worst of the outbreak is over—and it might not be—bad economic news may well be in our future.

...and it might not be...

Might? We are seeing evidence of local community transmission in countries all over Asia and additional evidence of seemingly isolated, unconnected cases just popping up in far flung regions of countries. Meanwhile we have a sudden surge of seemingly healthy people spending small fortunes getting the hell out of Dodge and flying to far reaches of the planet. This thing is far from over.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #930 on: February 16, 2020, 05:01:28 PM »
It is also easy to imagine people deciding they are better off hoping to recover without help than seeking help such that the figures don't show the picture at all.

Place yourself in China with conditions that are being reported. Your local hospital is approaching collapse with patients not getting the care they need. You can be damn certain I have decided to care for my sick mother at home as I have quite logically decided her chances rise dramatically under my attentive care.

I will bring her to the hospital only if she suddenly appears to be at death's door which accounts for the very high percentage of serious cases reported and death rates from those serious cases. My guess is that hundreds of thousands of Chinese are fighting mild cases at home.

This is actually very good news as it will ultimately reveal that the deadliness of this disease, while high, is overstated.
« Last Edit: February 16, 2020, 05:28:04 PM by Shared Humanity »

Shared Humanity

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #931 on: February 16, 2020, 05:06:38 PM »
Exclusive: Chinese doctors say Wuhan coronavirus reinfection even deadlier
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197
Quote
According to the message forwarded to Taiwan News, “It’s highly possible to get infected a second time. A few people recovered from the first time by their own immune system, but the meds they use are damaging their heart tissue, and when they get it the second time, the antibody doesn’t help but makes it worse, and they die a sudden death from heart failure.”
I thought that once you recover from a virus you are immune...at least for a long time.
The reason you keep getting colds and flus is because there are dozens of different varieties of these diseases.
Am I wrong, or is Covid-19 mutating so fast?

Is it possible that while the meds are dramatically reducing the viral load in the patient, they are also suppressing the patients own immune system? They then release the "recovered" patient only to have the virus grow rapidly again in the now immune suppressed patient.

wili

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #932 on: February 16, 2020, 05:19:07 PM »
More on how the common cold (rhinovirus) and coronaviruses avoid being blocked by our immune system:

Quote
The small, spiky spheres, the coronaviruses are closely monitored by public health agencies, since they're able to be transmitted between species and some have a high potential mortality rate. Both SARS and MERS are caused by coronaviruses. Their ability to adapt to new environments seems due in part to the spikes on the surface of the virus--more specifically, a small, strategic part of the proteins that form those spikes.

The spikes are made up of S proteins (S for spike). A specific part of the spike seems to allow the virus to attach itself to host cells. The spike's RBD (receptor binding domain), which initiates the interaction between cell and virus, is essential for infection. But RBDs are targeted by antibodies that neutralize the virus and allow the immune system to flush it out of the host's system.

Coronaviruses are thus faced with an evolutionary problem. They can't infect cells without an RBD, which needs to be exposed so that it can latch onto cells. But the RBD needs to be masked to avoid being targeted by antibodies.

In response, the coronavirus has developed a mechanism that helps it survive, and thrive. The RBD is made up of three parts that vary widely between strains. Thanks to this variation, antibodies are unable to detect new strains, whereas RBDs retain--and even improve--their affinity for the target cell. Plus, RBDs alternate between visible and masked states.

https://www.technologynetworks.com/immunology/news/why-dont-we-ever-develop-immunity-against-the-common-cold-294551
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Shared Humanity

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #933 on: February 16, 2020, 05:30:32 PM »
Thank you wili for that link...

wili

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #934 on: February 16, 2020, 05:49:26 PM »
My pleasure. And thank you for all your many insights and perspicacity on these threads!
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Shared Humanity

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #935 on: February 16, 2020, 06:16:27 PM »
My pleasure. And thank you for all your many insights and perspicacity on these threads!

Had to google that word...

sark

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #936 on: February 16, 2020, 06:22:20 PM »
Thank you Sark, the secret mass cremations story was clear rumor-mongering, but it's good to have actual information about the issue.

As is the crap that the new coronavirus escaped from a lab in Wuhan where China was attempting to weaponize it.

humans are far too clumsy to create something so magnificent
I am not a scientist

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #937 on: February 16, 2020, 08:32:07 PM »
I think it's pretty horrible the have an allergy in China right now. One snieze and you are on your way to the crematorium.

sark

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #938 on: February 16, 2020, 09:50:28 PM »
correction lol

not 750 megawatts.  http://viirsfire.geog.umd.edu/map/viirsMap.php

I don't really know how big it needs to be to trigger a fire detection.  I never bothered to get that deep into it when I was using it to see where forest fires are moving.  Worldview shows a number of hits over several days from the top two environmental satellite programs and I saw one hot pixel from GOES-20.

how do you access Suomi NPP top tier products?  Is it expensive?
I am not a scientist

Adam Ash

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #939 on: February 16, 2020, 10:35:19 PM »
How long will the Japanese maintain business as usual, and no Plan B for the Olympics? ...

Well you can get some clue as to how Japan will handle this - look at the way they handled the ongoing radiation fallout and 'cleanup' from the Fukushima disaster.  Not well; not transparently, not effectively, just awful.   

It will not be pretty, particularly with increasing evidence of reinfection causing increased mortality.  In any closed environment where patients are patiently waiting to get over the disease, it seems capable of reinfecting them and it hits harder second time.  We should be very afraid.

wili

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #940 on: February 17, 2020, 01:11:01 AM »
File under...Oooops!  :o  :-[ ???  :(

Coronavirus Infection Found After Cruise Ship Passengers Disperse


Amid assurances that the Westerdam was disease free, hundreds of people disembarked in Cambodia and headed for airports. One was later found to be infected

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/16/world/asia/coronavirus-cruise-americans.html

Quote
The cruise ship had been shunned at port after port for fear it might carry the coronavirus, but when the Westerdam arrived in Cambodia on Thursday, the prime minister greeted its passengers with flowers.

Amid assurances that the ship was disease free, hundreds of elated passengers disembarked. Some went sightseeing, visiting beaches and restaurants and getting massages. Others traveled on to destinations around the world.

One, however, did not make it much farther than the thermal scanners at the Kuala Lumpur airport in Malaysia. The passenger, an American, was stopped on Saturday, and later tested positive for the coronavirus.

On Sunday, with passengers already headed for destinations on at least three continents, health officials were scrambling to determine how a big a problem they now have — and how to stop it from getting bigger.

“We anticipated glitches, but I have to tell you I didn’t anticipate one of this magnitude,” said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center.

With more than a thousand passengers from the Westerdam headed for home, Dr. Schaffner said, it may be harder than ever to keep the coronavirus outbreak contained to China.

This could be a turning point,” he said...
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #941 on: February 17, 2020, 02:44:29 AM »
https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia?from=timeline&isappinstalled=0

截至 2020-02-16 17:28 全国数据统计
数据说明

58,010 现存确诊 +517  较昨日
  7,264 现存疑似 +1,563  较昨日
10,644 现存重症 -628  较昨日
70,635 累计确诊 +2,051  较昨日
  1,772 累计死亡 +106  较昨日
10,853 累计治愈 +1,428  较昨日

As of 2020-02-16 17:28 National Statistics
the data shows

58,010 Existing confirmed diagnosis    +517 since yesterday
  7,264 Suspected                           +1,563 since yesterday
10,644 Existing severe illness              -628 since yesterday
70,635 Cumulative diagnoses.         +2,051 since yesterday
  1,772 Cumulative deaths                  +106 since yesterday
10,853 Cumulative Healing              +1,428 since yesterday

Johns Hopkins

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

69,288 Confirmed
  1,670 Deaths
  9.871 Recovered

Sam

TerryM

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #942 on: February 17, 2020, 02:49:23 AM »

wili
1455 passengers and 802 crew.


I don't fear the crew, but 1,454 nouveau riche scampering through Asia on holiday will break the quarantine wide open.


Hopefully the weeks that the Chinese gave us haven't been squandered.
Terry

wili

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #943 on: February 17, 2020, 02:53:20 AM »
^^^^^^^^^^^^^

Ramen!

 :)

Here are CNN's latest numbers:
Quote
The novel coronavirus has infected more than 71,000 people globally, mostly in mainland China. The death toll is 1,770, including four people outside mainland China.

https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-16-20-intl-hnk/index.html

(Not sure why the discrepancy from Sam's numbers...different sources, or more recent numbers?)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Adam Ash

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #944 on: February 17, 2020, 04:18:02 AM »
COVID-19 cases by John Hopkins.  Probably conservative but best there is, IMHO.  Who really knows?

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
« Last Edit: February 17, 2020, 04:37:49 AM by Adam Ash »

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #945 on: February 17, 2020, 05:23:55 AM »
Either the JH numbers updated after I posted, or I neglected to hit refresh.

71,331 Confirmed
  1,775 Deaths
10,972 Recovered

El Cid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #946 on: February 17, 2020, 07:21:10 AM »
Still more good news. New cases ouside of Hubei per day (last day on top). Keeps going strongly down. Don't understand how this can happen though:
187
270
235
219
419
437
464
450
482

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #947 on: February 17, 2020, 08:28:50 AM »
Still more good news. New cases ouside of Hubei per day (last day on top). Keeps going strongly down. Don't understand how this can happen though:
187
270
235
219
419
437
464
450
482

A few more days, and than they can say "we did our job, now it's up to you"

KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #948 on: February 17, 2020, 09:16:19 AM »
We should not be worry about China .
We should be concerned with cases out side of China.
Even more concerning is regions  that are reporting statistically less cases than we should reasonable expect. 
 

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #949 on: February 17, 2020, 09:47:03 AM »
We should not be worry about China .
We should be concerned with cases out side of China.
Even more concerning is regions  that are reporting statistically less cases than we should reasonable expect.

Not worried about China ? What do you think will happen if we get a look a like scenario in a other country. Most places already have a strong anti-China sentiment.