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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 66

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 284961 times)

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1100 on: February 20, 2020, 06:18:10 PM »
Disinformation is a weapon of mass destruction!

About that you are correct. For example that WHO page. Hindsight is certainly 2020 but any leader reading that report a month ago would have underestimated the threat. Using that month-old report as a report of the situation today will result in further wrong actions taken.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

blumenkraft

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1101 on: February 20, 2020, 06:24:28 PM »
QED!
“I’m an introvert. I’m just different that’s all. I’m so sorry. I don’t have a gun. I don’t do that stuff... All I was trying to do was to become better. I’ll do it... You all are phenomenal. You are beautiful. And I love you. Try to forgive me. I’m sorry.”

Elijah McClain

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1102 on: February 20, 2020, 06:37:54 PM »
I think the mortality rate in Wuhan already proves that the response was not nearly enough, even when I believe a great commendable effort was made. Live and learn, but we only learn if we admit mistakes and improve. If we hide the mistakes then we will repeat them.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1103 on: February 20, 2020, 07:25:51 PM »
From the shit happens file.

Quote
Special case! A man's pharyngeal swab tests negative for feces

According to a report by the Health and Health Committee of Zhoushan City, Zhejiang Province on the evening of February 16, Qi Moumou's stool specimens tested positive for the new crown virus, the sputum throat swab test was negative, and there were no clinical manifestations. According to the new crown pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan, the suspected cases and confirmed diagnosis were not met Case diagnostic criteria. In order to reduce the risk of possible infection, they were sent from ambulances to designated hospitals for isolation and treatment. On February 18, the stool test was positive again, and the pharyngeal swab test was negative. No clinical manifestations.


https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia?scene=2&clicktime=1579582238&enterid=1579582238&from=singlemessage&isappinstalled=0

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1104 on: February 20, 2020, 08:42:26 PM »
Three more cases in Iran. And if you look at Japan and Singapore. The virus seems to like places of worship. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/iran-confirms-coronavirus-cases-200220125104907.html

bluice

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1105 on: February 20, 2020, 09:09:23 PM »
Three more cases in Iran. And if you look at Japan and Singapore. The virus seems to like places of worship. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/iran-confirms-coronavirus-cases-200220125104907.html
Looks line thoughts and especially prayers aren’t enough to stop it from spreading.

Grubbegrabben

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1106 on: February 20, 2020, 09:14:30 PM »
Quote
As you know, a WHO-led international team of experts is now on the ground in China, working with their Chinese counterparts to find answers to some of the things we don’t know, including the severity of disease, the transmissibility of the virus and the impact of the measures that China has taken.

The WHO-led joint team brings together leading experts from China and around the world, with a shared commitment to pooling their scientific expertise to better understand the outbreak and save lives.

The mission was launched under the GOARN framework and we thank all partners in the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network for their continued support and partnership.

The team includes experts in epidemiology, virology, clinical management, outbreak control and public health from the following institutions:

The National University of Singapore

The Saint Petersburg Pasteur Institute

The National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Japan

The Seoul National University College of Medicine, Republic of Korea

The Nigeria Centre for Disease Control

The U.S. Centers for Disease Prevention and Control

The U.S. National Institutes of Health

The Russian National Medical Research Center of Phthisiopulmonology and Infectious Diseases

And the Robert Koch Institute, Germany.

Since the declaration of the PHEIC we have intensified our coordination, both internally and externally.

Source: https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-mission-briefing-on-covid-19

Are they being transported in limos between clinics with mildly sick patients giving testimony of just good healthcare they are receiving? Or are they shown the real stuff?

Maybe I live in an illusion but I doubt these people expect nothing but fancy dinners and parades.

Bruce Steele

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1107 on: February 20, 2020, 09:28:27 PM »
Here is a chronology from the Global Times, a Chinese daily. It covers the last month from a Chinese perspective. There are some interesting op eds also in the Global Times. There is one questioning Japan on releasing Diamond Princess passengers without an additional quarantine on land.

https://www.globaltimes.cn//content/1177737.shtml

Grubbegrabben

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1108 on: February 20, 2020, 09:39:50 PM »
A report from Japanese NIID concludes that

Quote
The decline in the number of confirmed cases, based on reported onset dates, implies that the quarantine intervention was effective in reducing transmission among passengers.


Source: https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/9407-covid-dp-fe-01.html

Other sources (mostly news) seem to imply that the decision to create a COVID-19 incubation chamber was a bad idea from start to finish.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1109 on: February 20, 2020, 09:40:37 PM »
FBI Has Ordered $40,000 in Hand Sanitizer and Face Masks
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/20/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

The U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation has ordered $40,000 of hand sanitizer and face masks “in case the coronavirus becomes a pandemic in the United States,” according to the acquisition document. The FBI’s “pandemic preparedness” supply order includes face masks from manufacturer 3M and disinfectants, including hand sanitizer, from PDI Healthcare, the document said. In its purchase order, the FBI said it needs to have those items on hand if the coronavirus, or COVID-19, spreads widely throughout the U.S. The masks and disinfectants “are to be stored throughout the country for distribution in the event of a declared pandemic,” according to the document, which was signed Friday and gave the companies a week to fulfill the order. (... what's the hurry?)

--------------------------------

CDC Issues Travel Advisories for Japan, Hong Kong
https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-20-20-intl-hnk/index.html

The Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued new coronavirus-related travel advisories Thursday for Americans visiting Japan or Hong Kong.

Officials said Thursday that it remained unnecessary to postpone or cancel trips to Japan or Hong Kong due to the virus. However, the CDC advisories noted “multiple instances of community spread" in both locales, meaning people “have been infected with the virus, but how or where they became infected is not known.” (... take a taxi)

-------------------------------

Japan reports 12 new coronavirus cases
https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-20-20-intl-hnk/index.html

Officials in Japan have reported a dozen new confirmed cases of the coronavirus, CNN reported, citing the Japanese health ministry.

The new cases include two government officials who worked on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship

The remaining 10 new cases originated on land, according to the Japanese health ministry.

Among the cases on land is one taxi driver in Okinawa who drove a tourist from the Diamond Princess and has now tested positive. The vessel stopped at a port in Okinawa on February 1, just days before the coronavirus cases were confirmed onboard.

-------------------------------

Global Air Travel Demand Set to Decline

Global air travel demand is set to decline for the first time since 2009 because of coronavirus, the International Air Transport Association said Thursday.

The outbreak will cost Chinese airlines $12.8 billion in revenue and nearly $29 billion for carriers in the Asia-Pacific region, IATA estimated. The trade group, which represents most of the world’s airlines, had forecast demand growth in 2020 of 4.1%, which it’s now revised to a contraction of 0.6%.

------------------------------

Pandemic Could Inflict Huge Cost to Economy, Report Says:

If the coronavirus morphs into a global pandemic, global GDP for 2020 would drop by $1.1 trillion, or 1.3% of previous forecasts, and send the U.S. into recession, according to economic forecasting agency Oxford Economics. If a pandemic were limited to Asia, global GDP could dip by $400 billion, or 0.5% below expectations.

https://twitter.com/OxfordEconomics/status/1230522020082876416
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1110 on: February 20, 2020, 11:48:07 PM »
Coronavirus Outcomes Range From Pandemic to a New Flu, Experts Say
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-02-18/when-will-the-coronavirus-outbreak-end-experts-give-predictions

Even as the number of new coronavirus cases in China appears to ebb, experts say they’re preparing for a future with a disease that past pandemics have only hinted at.

China’s lockdown of Hubei province, where the outbreak began, gave the world several weeks to throw up its defenses, global health officials said Tuesday. But it hasn’t stopped the virus, with new cases popping up around the globe, potentially seeding a pandemic to come.



The aspects the new coronavirus does share with other outbreaks are mostly human failures, not biological advantages.

... In a study published this month, the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention warned that even with new infections in decline, they could rise again as the economy restarts, after an extension of the national Lunar New Year holiday and shutdowns of workplaces and public gathering spaces.

“Huge numbers of people will soon be returning to work and school,” a group of researchers at the Chinese agency wrote in their analysis. “We need to prepare for a possible rebound of the Covid-19 epidemic in the coming weeks.”

...

Quote
... “We are just getting started,” ... “If this spreads around the world, this will be just south of the 1918 pandemic,” referring to the pandemic flu that killed millions a century ago. “The next three weeks are going to be critical.”
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1111 on: February 20, 2020, 11:54:22 PM »
Iran. 2 deaths. Same as in the cruise and there are 621 confirmed people there.

I imagine than in the poorer countries this is how we will first hear of infection, if at all.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1112 on: February 21, 2020, 12:55:37 AM »
CIDRAP Launches Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Resource Center
https://twin-cities.umn.edu/news-events/cidrap-launches-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-resource-center

The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) at the University of Minnesota announced today it has launched an online CIDRAP COVID-19 Resource Center that provides a wealth of information for public health experts, business preparedness leaders, government officials, and the public regarding the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19.

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19

The CIDRAP COVID-19 Resource Center will highlight the latest news developments, relevant scientific literature, and guidance from leading agencies, and it will help bring perspective to this evolving public health threat.

The resource center features extensive original content from CIDRAP and aggregates the most useful information from diverse perspectives and expertise, including:

  • frequently asked questions on COVID-19, including how is the virus transmitted, what can you do to reduce exposure, and when we can expect a vaccine;
  • relevant information for employers;
  • a comprehensive living bibliography;
  • up-to-date news from the U.S., across Asia, and around the world;
  • extensive links to COVID-19 content on websites from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the World Health Organization and other key agencies;
  • links to the latest maps, case counts, epidemiologic curves and other useful data
.

-----------------------------

Kuwait Airways Suspends Flights to Iran Amid Fears From Coronavirus Outbreak
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/20/coronavirus-latest-updates.html

Kuwait Airways suspended all flights to Iran starting on the advice of the Kuwaiti health ministry and civil aviation authority amid fears about a coronavirus outbreak in the country.

Kuwait Airways is the second flagship carrier in the region to suspend flights to Iran after Iraq Airways stopped flights earlier in the day. Two Iranians who tested positive for the coronavirus have died of respiratory illness, and three others tested positive, the Iranian health ministry said.

All schools and universities, including religious Shiite seminaries, were shut down in Qom, Iran according to the official IRNA news agency. Other news reports said Iran had recently evacuated 60 Iranian students from Wuhan, the Chinese city at the epicenter of the epidemic.

--------------------------

Coronavirus Cases Outside China Remain Low, But WHO Chief Warns ‘That May Not Stay the Same for Long’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/20/coronavirus-cases-outside-china-are-low-but-who-warns-that-could-change.html

World health officials said that the new coronavirus has not yet spread widely around the world, but emphasized that the virus could break out globally at any time.

“The number of cases in the rest of the world is very small compared to what we have in China, but that may not stay the same for long,” World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters at the organization’s headquarters in Geneva on Thursday.

--------------------------

WHO Expects Early Trial Results of Potential Coronavirus Treatments in 3 Weeks
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/20/early-trial-results-for-potential-coronavirus-treatments-expected-in-three-weeks-who-says.html

Preliminary results from two clinical trials testing potential treatments for the COVID-19 coronavirus are expected in three weeks, the World Health Organization said Thursday. One trial combines HIV drugs Lopinavir and Ritonavir, while the other is testing U.S.-based biotech Gilead Sciences’ antiviral Remdesivir, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said Thursday at a news conference at the agency’s headquarters.

-------------------------

13 More People Diagnosed with Coronavirus On Diamond Princess Cruise Ship

Another 13 people on board a cruise ship that was quarantined off the coast of Japan have been diagnosed with the new coronavirus, the country's health ministry said on Thursday.

Confirmation of the new cases, from 52 additional test results, brought the total number of infections diagnosed on board the Diamond Princess so far to 634, the ministry said in a statement.

--------------------------

Indonesia to Evacuate 74 People From Diamond Princess Cruise Ship

One of Indonesia's senior ministers said Thursday that the country is "committed" to evacuating the 74 Indonesian nationals on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Reuters reports.

Indonesia's chief development minister, said the government isn't yet sure whether it will evacuate its citizens by boat or by plane (... or where they'll put them), Reuters said.

A foreign ministry official said four Indonesians who were part of the ship's crew had been diagnosed with the coronavirus, according to Reuters.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1113 on: February 21, 2020, 01:07:38 AM »
Iran Notes More COVID-19 Cases; Doctor Infected in Arak
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/iran-notes-more-covid-19-cases-2-diamond-princess-die

Following a report yesterday of its first two cases, both fatal, Iran's health ministry today reported three more. Two are in Qom, the same city where the first two cases were confirmed, and one is in Arak, located about 92 miles southwest of that city.

All three patients are Iranian citizens, and the ministry's machine-translated statement said the patient in Arak is a doctor. It said health officials have proposed limiting visits to Qom's holy shrine and other pilgrimage sites. Among other measures, the health ministry has also advised canceling seminars and conferences in Qom.

A health official was quoted in Iran's state news agency as saying the patients whose illnesses and deaths were announced yesterday had not had any contact with foreigners or people who had traveled to  China, Al Jazeera reported today. It added that an advisor to Iran's health ministry said testing is under way on suspected cases in several other cities, and that the state news agency reported that two people with suspected infections have been quarantined in Babol, located in northern Iran.

-------------------

Quote from: Archimid
... I imagine than in the poorer countries this is how we will first hear of infection, if at all.

I think you may be correct. ...What's troubling is that these cases in Iran are spread out and have no common vector or Chinese connection - suggesting that COVID-19 has been circulating for some time.

Difficulty in diagnosis - and sanctions on medical equipment - doesn't help either.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2020, 01:39:48 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1114 on: February 21, 2020, 02:23:52 AM »
Just something to be think about ...

U.S. Intelligence Agencies listen to all sorts of chatter in various countries.

It's a fair bet that they are listening to every conversation coming out of China, Iran and elsewhere, especially conversation between and among medical personnel. (Yes, they have that capability)

Thus, the fact that both the DoD and CDC are rushing to unveil Pandemic Plans, at this point in time, is significant.

They wouldn't be doing that if the chatter had any relationship to the numbers that are circulating about declining case load.

Whether or not the Administration is listening to the Intelligence Community is another matter  - DoD and CDC are.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

oren

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1115 on: February 21, 2020, 02:35:04 AM »
I think you can surmise a global pandemic of some severity is about to occur, just by reading the "V_M news" and the "Sam analysis" and so on. You don't need to use covert snooping (although the capability of course exists) and I doubt such intelligence is the basis for recent messages/decisions from CDC and DoD.
The virus is already circulating in the local population of at least 4 major countries besides China - Japan, S. Korea, Singapore, and now Iran. In addition it's been spread around from the Diamond Princess diaspora which pose a risk wherever they went, and it's probably already circulating in countries which may not have identified it properly judging by their too-low or zero number of cases (Indonesia, India and some countries in Africa are under suspicion). Ergo, whoever can do anything should prepare.

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1116 on: February 21, 2020, 03:00:10 AM »
https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia?from=groupmessage&isappinstalled=0

截至 2020-02-20 17:28 全国数据统计
数据说明

55,051 现存确诊  -1,335 较昨日
  5,206 现存疑似 +1,614 较昨日
11,633 现存重症     -231较昨日
75,567 累计确诊    +892 较昨日
  2,239 累计死亡    +118 较昨日
18,277 累计治愈 +2,109 较昨日

As of 2020-02-20 17:28 National Statistics
the data shows

54,051 Existing confirmed diagnosis -1,335 since yesterday
  5,206 Suspected                          +1,614 since yesterday
11,633 Existing severe illness              -231 since yesterday
75,567 Cumulative diagnoses             +892 since yesterday
  2,239 Cumulative deaths                 +118 since yesterday
18,277 Cumulative Healing              +2,109 since yesterday

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Johns Hopkins
76,243 Confirmed
  2,247 Deaths
18,424 Recovered

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?l=unrooted&m=div
Next Strain
103 analyzed strains

We can bound the case fatality rate. We know it takes longer to recover from the disease than to die from it. As a result, the CFR cannot be higher than the total deaths/total recovered and is likely much less. That puts an upper bound on the CFR at 12.2%

A similar naive calculation (one not taking account of the actual dynamics) based on the Deaths/Confirmed and Deaths/Recovered puts those at 3.0% and 24.2%. The total of those should be 100%. Clearly it is far from it, so the dynamics are still very much at work (i.e. it takes time to die or recover). But that does set a lower bound on the CFR at 3.0%.

Do remember though that these bounds are for those who report to hospital. And since we lack any data at all about those who do not report to hospital, and how that population compares in size to the hospitalized portion, we cannot assess what that means about the actual population wide CFR.

Also, the age distribution issue still applies. This disease kills people over 60 and few under 60. So the utility of a simple all-age CFR at all is dubious.

The same cautions still apply. The changing case definition and other issues make it very difficult to compare these numbers day to day or week to week, let alone to use them to infer things about the communities at large.

Oren,

The reports out of the four countries (Japan, South Korea, Iran and Singapore) are indeed concerning, as are the movement of the infected folks off the cruise ship(s). These all greatly increase the chance that this evades control and becomes an international pandemic.

The markets are just now beginning to take note. Goldman Sachs is now cautioning about a potential 10% correction soon. That is likely just the beginning.

Markets and suppliers are also now beginning to realize the implications for supply chain disruptions. I suspect there are a whole lot of corporate heads and corporate board members reconsidering the wisdom of a highly diversified and interdependent supply chain.

This is nothing new. Centralization and decentralization in all its many forms feels an awful lot like a perpetual motion machine.

Sam

Addenda

Something I wonder about from this data.

Note that the existing confirmed diagnosis tally is declining. If we subtract that from the Cumulative Diagnoses, we get 21,516. That is pretty close to the total cumulative tally of deaths and recoveries (2,239 and 18, 277, total = 20,516). I do not like that these numbers are precisely 1,000 apart.

However, if we can assume that the long early tail of diagnoses, deaths and recoveries is large compared to the current count of those ill, then the deaths/diagnosed ratio might set a low bound on the CFR. (2,239/21,516 = 10.9%). That is very close to the reported value for the original SARS at 10%.

It is tempting to think this is meaningful. Not knowing the pedigree of the data, I really can't even speculate on that.

If true, this also suggest that we should expect (or fear) an additional ~6,000 deaths from those already confirmed infected and in treatment.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2020, 03:20:01 AM by Sam »

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1117 on: February 21, 2020, 03:46:49 AM »
South Korea Confirms 52 More Cases; Total 156
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/east-asia/article/3051695/coronavirus-south-korea-confirms-52-more-cases-total-156

South Korea confirmed 52 more cases of novel coronavirus infection on Friday, taking its tally to 156, the second-highest national total outside China.

A total of 43 were in Daegu, the southern city at the centre of the country’s outbreak, and its neighbouring provinces, the Korean Centres for Disease Control and Prevention said in a statement.

Seventy cases have been reported in Daegu (population 2.4 million) this week, many linked to a controversial “cult” church. The city’s mayor said residents faced an “unprecedented crisis” from the virus outbreak.

Of the 52 new cases, 39 are linked to the Shincheonji Church of Jesus in Daegu.

As of Friday more than 400 members of the church were showing symptoms of the disease, Reuters reports, though tests were still ongoing, Daegu mayor, Kwon Young-jin, said at a briefing.


Yonhap news service also reported that military personnel have been confirmed as having Covid-19. Three cases were confirmed, one each in the army, the navy and the air force, it said.

All three are believed to have visited or contacted people from Daegu.

South Korea on Friday declared Daegu and the surrounding region a “special management zone” after a surge in virus cases that city officials say threaten to overwhelm the region’s health system.

Prime Minister Chung Se-kyun said the national government will concentrate its support to the region to ease a shortage in sickbeds, medical personnel and equipment.

“A month into the (Covid-19) outbreak, we have entered an emergency phase,” Chung said. “Our efforts until now had been focused on blocking the illness from entering the country. But we will now shift the focus on preventing the illness from spreading further in local communities.”

The surge of infections in the Daegu area and several cases in the capital, Seoul, where infection routes weren’t immediately traceable, forced government officials to acknowledge on Thursday for the first time that the virus has begun to circulate in the local population.

------------------------

Plague Ship: 2 Australian Evacuees From Diamond Princess Cruise Ship Test Positive
https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/australasia/article/3051694/coronavirus-two-australian-evacuees-diamond-princess-cruise

Some 164 Australians aboard the liner were cleared for transfer from the vessel to quarantine in the country’s remote north this week

Six evacuees have now been retested and the two – described as ‘an older person’ and ‘a younger person’ – tested positive, raising questions about Japan’s policy of allowing evacuees to return home after testing negative.

... hundreds of Japanese passengers were cleared and warned only to “stay at home unless absolutely necessary,” and to “never use public” transport and use a mask if they do venture out.

-----------------------------



------------------------------

Like the Prison/Plague Ship ...

Chinese Prison Reports 200 Cases of Covid-19
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/21/coronavirus-live-updates-china-wuhan-hubei-south-korea-cases-infections-death-toll-outbreak-diamond-princess-latest-news

China’s Global Television Network is reporting that 200 prisoners in a facility in the eastern province of Shandong are infected with Covid-19. The sources of the infection is reported to be an affected prison guard.

These prison cases may partly explain the spike in new cases today to 889, up from 394 reported on Thursday.

East China's Shandong Province reported 200 #COVID19 cases from the Rencheng Prison on Thu., bringing the total to 207 in the facility

- Virus brought in by affected prison guard
- Treatments underway
- Provincial justice chief among eight officials removed from office

Two officials were removed from their posts in a #Zhejiang #prison that has reported 27 confirmed #COVID19 cases. 28 new cases of #COVID19 were confirmed in East #China’s Zhejiang Province on Thursday, including 27 in Shilifeng Prison, bringing the province’s total cases to 1,203

https://mobile.twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1230675052753874949

From Comment: ... Sacking people immediately after they report cases is only going to encourage cover-ups. What official seeing this news is going to come forward now?

-------------------------------
« Last Edit: February 21, 2020, 05:39:43 AM by vox_mundi »
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Bruce Steele

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1118 on: February 21, 2020, 04:03:33 AM »
Oren, I am not sure how to start a discussion on preparation but since I have a reputation for being “prepared” I may have more mouths to feed than I currently cook for. So too I think some of us will be tending the sick, and preparing quarantine procedures.
 I haven’t planted acres of corn in the last few years but this year I am going to be putting in an effort.
Staples , heavy carbs, long storage . Since I have animals I may need to be ready to put some in the larder. Salt and cold storage
 Keeping the sick comfortable and the healthy healthy. ” Ergo, whoever can do anything should prepare.”




« Last Edit: February 21, 2020, 04:10:26 AM by Bruce Steele »

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1119 on: February 21, 2020, 04:21:02 AM »
Bruce; Do you have the climate/soil for potatoes or is it too hot and dry? Also, winter squash. They keep well and are prolific.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1120 on: February 21, 2020, 05:04:38 AM »
Problems With CDC Coronavirus Test Delay Expanded U.S. Screening
https://www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/02/20/cdc-coronavirus-116529

Problems with a coronavirus test developed by the CDC have delayed the Trump administration's efforts to expand screening to state and local public health labs, more than two weeks after the FDA granted permission to distribute the CDC test nationwide.

Only three of the more than 100 public health labs across the country have verified the CDC test for use, according to the Association of Public Health Laboratories.

The delay has also hampered CDC’s plan to screen samples collected by its national flu-surveillance network for the coronavirus, according to Peter Kyriacopoulos, APHL's senior director of public policy. CDC hopes to use public health labs in Chicago, New York City, Los Angeles, San Francisco and Seattle to screen samples that test negative for the flu and other common respiratory viruses for the coronavirus.

CDC confirmed the problems with the coronavirus test, and with using its flu-surveillance network to screen for the virus. But the agency declined to answer further questions on the matter.

The delay in establishing additional screening capacity could impede the U.S. government’s ability to detect scattered cases before they snowball into larger outbreaks, former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb told POLITICO.

“By that point, it may be harder to contain spread, and we'll be forced to rely on mitigation tactics to just limit the impact of the virus," he said.

----------------------------

11 Americans at Omaha Facility Tested Positive for Coronavirus, Hospital Says
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/02/20/health/nebraska-coronavirus-positive-tests/index.html

Most of the Americans who were being monitored at the University of Nebraska Medical Center for coronavirus after evacuating a cruise ship in Japan tested positive for the virus, the hospital says.

UMNC said in a statement Thursday that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention verified the Nebraska Public Health Lab results showing that 11 of the 13 patients have the novel coronavirus. The other two evacuees who were taken to the Omaha hospital tested negative, the statement said.

The hospital had said some of the patients had tested positive in Japan but some "came with a lack of clarity what their test results were,"

Several people are exhibiting minor symptoms but others are not showing any symptoms, the release said.

-----------------------------
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Bruce Steele

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1121 on: February 21, 2020, 06:10:19 AM »
Vox, I don’t want to take this thread in a different direction. I think though it is time to think about how to respond/ prepare. Masks are already in short supply so if you plan on using masks better get some before any outbreak hits your country. Local drugstore completely out of r-95 , feed store limiting boxes per customer and said they can’t restock.
 You get my point about planting staples , potatoes and winter squash are perfect. The point is to avoid the store if that becomes necessary.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1122 on: February 21, 2020, 07:29:35 AM »
Recovered Patients May Still Be Infectious
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3051688/coronavirus-115-new-deaths-confirmed-hubei-officials-report-411

In a grim assessment, a key Chinese respiratory disease expert described the situation of the epidemic as a “see-saw battle”, despite the drop in daily recorded cases in recent days

“We should not be relaxed. The figure may go up again,” said Zhao Jianping, head of an expert team working to contain the outbreak in Hubei.

Zhao told the magazine Southern People Weekly there were cases in China in which recovered patients continued to show traces of the virus through nucleic acid tests. There were similar results in Canada, where nose and throat swabs taken from a couple who had recovered from Covid-19 revealed they still had traces of the virus.

Quote
... “We also have such cases. This is dangerous. Where do you put these patients? You can't send them home because they might infect others, but you can't put them in hospital as resources are stretched,”

Zhao said there were 27 patients when his team first went to a Wuhan hospital designated to treat infected people on December 30, and the number increased on January 10 with infections among medical workers.

“The number of patients has jumped from 27 to 70,000. It is highly contagious,” he said.

---------------------------

Feb. 20: WHO Experts Stop in Wuhan 'Under Consideration'
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who/who-says-no-time-for-complacency-as-china-coronavirus-cases-fall-idUSKBN20E2B4
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3051688/coronavirus-115-new-deaths-confirmed-hubei-officials-report-411


Chen Xu, China’s ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, said a stop in Wuhan for the World Health Organisation-led international mission now in China was “under consideration”.

Chen told a news conference that the spread of the coronavirus made a visit to Wuhan risky and would require a period of quarantine afterwards.
However, he conceded that the experts would not have first-hand knowledge of the situation if they did not visit the city at the heart of the outbreak.

“I think the picture will be very much clearer in the days to come,” Chen said, adding that he had discussed medical shortages with the WHO's director general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus

---------------------------------

« Last Edit: February 21, 2020, 08:06:01 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

El Cid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1123 on: February 21, 2020, 07:47:34 AM »
Sam, I think your mortality numbers are too high. We clearly need to differentiate between the numbers of Hubei province and all others.

Clearly, Hubei can not and does not count all cases, and only severe cases are counted. We know that even very sick people are not accepted to hospitals and not tested and they are simply told to go home and self-quarantine. Ergo, there are many more infected in Hubei than currently calculated. So Hubei numbers are useless. We need to use numbers from outside of Hubei, and not surprisingly those are pretty much similar to each other but are in stark contrast to Hubei. Nowhere has anything close to the calculated mortality of Hubei!
 
If we take the dead to recovered ratio, it is 15% in Hubei but more importantly, 1,5% everywhere else. This means two things:

1. The number of infected is underestimated by a factor of 10 in Hubei, so cca half a million people are infected there

2. The true mortality rate is likely 1-2%

It is like the Spanish Flu

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1124 on: February 21, 2020, 07:54:55 AM »
‘Sentinel Event’: New Canadian Coronavirus Patient Never Went to China, But Had Visited Iran
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/british-columbia/article-bc-hit-with-sixth-case-of-coronavirus-after-woman-returns-from-iran/

Health authorities say latest case could be ‘indicator that there’s more widespread transmission’

Canadian health authorities have announced what they called a “sentinel event” with the detection of the new coronavirus in a woman who had never travelled to China.

The woman instead had recently returned to British Columbia from Iran, which has reported just five cases of the disease. Two of those patients have died.

“That, obviously, triggered a bit of interest from people around the world who are looking into this virus,” Dr. Henry said.

Quote
“This is what we call an indicator, or a sentinel event, as well, [which is] a marker that something may be going on broader than what we expect.”

The infection of the woman is the sixth case detected in BC, and the ninth in Canada.

The woman in her 30s lives in the Fraser Health region outside Vancouver, provincial health officer Dr Bonnie Henry said.

Health officials are now investigating details of the woman’s travel and will work to determine whether other passengers on her flight home need to be notified.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2020, 08:03:09 AM by vox_mundi »
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

etienne

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1125 on: February 21, 2020, 08:24:12 AM »
Iran has the specificity of a young population compared to China, Singapore, South Korea and Japan, so it is not so a surprise that the Covid19 could be more difficult to detect there. Thiy might also be true for other places like Thailand, Ethiopia...

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1126 on: February 21, 2020, 08:44:00 AM »
^ and much of Africa.

---------------------------

Coronavirus Hits China’s Farms and Food Supply Chain, With Further Spike in Meat Prices Ahead
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3051737/coronavirus-hits-chinas-farms-and-food-supply-chain-further

Many farmers in China’s are unable to access animal feed due to lockdowns across the country, leading to fears for the future of the meat supply chain

China has been forced to loosen restrictions of agriculture market access, amid fears of a further spike in food prices

Last year, China’s agriculture sector was rocked by an African swine fever outbreak, which reduced the nation’s pig herd by half, sending meat prices skyrocketing around the country and leaving many farmers penniless. If producers had hoped 2020 would be better, the last few weeks is likely to have left those hopes in tatters.

... On Wednesday, the Ministry of Commerce warned that China’s agriculture and food industries will be “heavily impacted” if the coronavirus crisis persists. On the same day, Premier Li Keqiang told local governments to make sure farmers do not miss the grain planting season, despite the virus, because it “will have an impact on the economic foundation and social stability for the whole year”.

“Animal farms have big problems,” said Rosa Wang, an analyst at Shanghai-based agricultural data provider JCI China. “There has been a shortage of feed getting to regions due to transport and logistics issues. Farmers are feeding their animals cheaper corn and [distiller grains] just to keep them alive as they cannot get soybean meal. They also cannot sell their produce at the markets.”

Beijing has ordered local authorities not to hold up animal feed passing between regions at the temporary checkpoints that have sprang up to counter the virus’ spread, but continued restrictions on logistics still mean that the options to transport feed often do not exist - there's a shortage of drivers.

It was reported earlier this week that thousands of containers of frozen meat are piling up at Chinese ports because the trucking network has effectively collapsed. Ports are running out of power points to keep the meat frozen, further stoking fears of damage to the food supply chain.

An American company which makes equipment for immunising and monitoring a billion baby chicks in China each year said its cargo imported from the US had been sitting at a Chinese dock for four weeks, with no transport to get it to hatcheries around the country.

In the poultry sector, it is these hatcheries – where layer birds and eggs are cultivated – that could be at most risk, said Chenjun Pan, protein analyst at Rabobank.

“I believe hatcheries are threatened. If farms want to slow down, they could destroy eggs instead of destroying breeders,” she said, with the impact being that the population of chickens in China could be reduced over the coming months.

... Wang at JCI China, meanwhile, predicts a 2 million to 3 million metric tonne supply gap of soybeans in March, with crushers in the country slowly returning to operation, but still suffering from logistical problems.

-----------------------------

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1127 on: February 21, 2020, 09:32:39 AM »
Sam, I think your mortality numbers are too high. We clearly need to differentiate between the numbers of Hubei province and all others.

Clearly, Hubei can not and does not count all cases, and only severe cases are counted. We know that even very sick people are not accepted to hospitals and not tested and they are simply told to go home and self-quarantine. Ergo, there are many more infected in Hubei than currently calculated. So Hubei numbers are useless. We need to use numbers from outside of Hubei, and not surprisingly those are pretty much similar to each other but are in stark contrast to Hubei. Nowhere has anything close to the calculated mortality of Hubei!
 
If we take the dead to recovered ratio, it is 15% in Hubei but more importantly, 1,5% everywhere else. This means two things:

1. The number of infected is underestimated by a factor of 10 in Hubei, so cca half a million people are infected there

2. The true mortality rate is likely 1-2%

It is like the Spanish Flu

This is precisely the problem. We do not know what we do not know.

We cannot be sure that using the total numbers is a valid approach. Equally we cannot presume the converse either. Concluding that the CFR is low based on selected data is as questionble as assuming it is high. Simply choosing which numbers we want to believe is one of the least valid choices, and runs particular risks for both understating the actual conditions and then from that making a whole raft of decisions that then get people killed.

What are the "real" numbers? I wish I knew? What are the "right" numbers? I wish I knew that too. And I wish I knew if those were the same. Right in this context may mean a series of different things. It might refer to most representative, most protective, most accurate, most informative ...  I do not mean it to include potentially the most politically palatable, though no doubt for some that is the "right" answer. I also do not mean it to be either the answers that make us feel best, that most assuage our fears, or that most stoke our fears, or that "show that ..." any preconceived notion in any direction.

Sam
« Last Edit: February 21, 2020, 11:27:58 AM by Sam »

KiwiGriff

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1128 on: February 21, 2020, 09:42:06 AM »
I think you can surmise a global pandemic of some severity is about to occur, just by reading the "V_M news" and the "Sam analysis" and so on. You don't need to use covert snooping (although the capability of course exists) and I doubt such intelligence is the basis for recent messages/decisions from CDC and DoD.
The virus is already circulating in the local population of at least 4 major countries besides China - Japan, S. Korea, Singapore, and now Iran. In addition it's been spread around from the Diamond Princess diaspora which pose a risk wherever they went, and it's probably already circulating in countries which may not have identified it properly judging by their too-low or zero number of cases (Indonesia, India and some countries in Africa are under suspicion). Ergo, whoever can do anything should prepare.

Well said.
I have thought for a while India Indonesia Africa all are under reporting cases.
Wuflu is going to  become endemic to humans we all should prepare for the future with that in mind.   

bluice

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1129 on: February 21, 2020, 10:08:52 AM »
Coronavirus Hits China’s Farms and Food Supply Chain, With Further Spike in Meat Prices Ahead
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3051737/coronavirus-hits-chinas-farms-and-food-supply-chain-further
Many container carrier no longer accept reefer boxes to China because all reefer plugs are occupied in ports such as Shanghai and Tianjin. Chinese importers are unable to move their cargo from ports due to lockdowns and restrictions.

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1130 on: February 21, 2020, 10:20:36 AM »
Sam, I think your mortality numbers are too high. We clearly need to differentiate between the numbers of Hubei province and all others.

This is prcisely the problem. We do not know what we do not know.

We cannot be sure that using the total numbers is a valid approach. Equally we cannot presume the converse either.

I would argue that if one province reports extreme numbers and everyone else reports the same low numbers (including reliable sources like Europe, US, etc) then it is quite likely (meaning that I am sure) that the outlier is not right. Besides, we exactly know why the otlier is not right: not enough test kits, not enough capacity to count.
So logic and reason dictate that Hubei numbers are not right and the other numbers are likely right.

One more thing: the Diamond Princess, full of elderly, reports 634 infected and only 2 dead. If this was as lethal as you think, then we would have at least 50 but rather 100 dead there already. Almost all of them are 60+ and many are 80+!


oren

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1131 on: February 21, 2020, 10:44:37 AM »
I also expect the "true" death rate is lower due to a large number of unreported light or asymptomatic cases in Hubei. At the same time the "true" contagion rate is also higher.
However - bear in mind two factors. The first is unreported deaths in Hubei, we have read of quite a few cases like this, of people dying at home, and deaths registered as viral pneumonia or some general cause.
Moreover, Hubei province saw an overwhelming of the healthcare system. I see no reason to believe that this will not happen elsewhere in the world. Once the spread hits a critical threshold, the hospitalization rate will be too high for almost any beds/population ratio. Average for the world is around 3 beds / 1000 population, Germany is a good outlier with 8/1000, but China itself is at an above-average 4/1000. The US and UK (and my country) are at ~3/1000. No chance this is going to be enough should the disease break the current quarantines and let loose on whole countries.

Source: World Bank
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.MED.BEDS.ZS

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1132 on: February 21, 2020, 11:34:08 AM »
Sam, I think your mortality numbers are too high. We clearly need to differentiate between the numbers of Hubei province and all others.

This is prcisely the problem. We do not know what we do not know.

We cannot be sure that using the total numbers is a valid approach. Equally we cannot presume the converse either.

I would argue that if one province reports extreme numbers and everyone else reports the same low numbers (including reliable sources like Europe, US, etc) then it is quite likely (meaning that I am sure) that the outlier is not right. Besides, we exactly know why the otlier is not right: not enough test kits, not enough capacity to count.
So logic and reason dictate that Hubei numbers are not right and the other numbers are likely right.

One more thing: the Diamond Princess, full of elderly, reports 634 infected and only 2 dead. If this was as lethal as you think, then we would have at least 50 but rather 100 dead there already. Almost all of them are 60+ and many are 80+!

Once again - we lack the data to decide what the limited data we have means. We cannot simply throw out the bulk of the data because we don't like it, it makes us uncomfortable, or it shows different statistics.

Another interpretation of the difference is that Hubei is farther along in the epidemic. They are plateauing. And the others being still in the growth phase are showing the same problem we saw in early numbers out of Hubei - that the deaths and recovered counts are from a smaller population of infected people from earlier in time.

This is the temporal problem. This is a problem often encountered with rapid growth curves. You cannot simply take the -naive- ratios of dead to infected to calculate the case fatality rate. It will always low ball the result.

The same thing is happening with the cruise ship. Over time the death count will rise, followed later by a rise in the rate of those who recovered.

I don't know how many different ways I can say this.

Sam
« Last Edit: February 21, 2020, 11:39:40 AM by Sam »

El Cid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1133 on: February 21, 2020, 11:34:46 AM »
Once the spread hits a critical threshold, the hospitalization rate will be too high for almost any beds/population ratio.

I can not argue with that

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1134 on: February 21, 2020, 11:38:26 AM »
I also expect the "true" death rate is lower due to a large number of unreported light or asymptomatic cases in Hubei. At the same time the "true" contagion rate is also higher.
However - bear in mind two factors. The first is unreported deaths in Hubei, we have read of quite a few cases like this, of people dying at home, and deaths registered as viral pneumonia or some general cause.
Moreover, Hubei province saw an overwhelming of the healthcare system. I see no reason to believe that this will not happen elsewhere in the world. Once the spread hits a critical threshold, the hospitalization rate will be too high for almost any beds/population ratio. Average for the world is around 3 beds / 1000 population, Germany is a good outlier with 8/1000, but China itself is at an above-average 4/1000. The US and UK (and my country) are at ~3/1000. No chance this is going to be enough should the disease break the current quarantines and let loose on whole countries.

Source: World Bank
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.MED.BEDS.ZS

Oren,

I suspect that this is indeed true. It is the area where we have the least data and only sparse information. That is also supported or argued for by the disease being less severe in the young, who are also least likely to seek medical help.

The counter argument in Hubei is that the Chinese government has imposed a severe program to get people with symptoms to hospital. They are even tracking purchases of cold and flu remedies to track people down who might be sick with the virus.

But again - we are lacking critical data.

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1135 on: February 21, 2020, 11:40:11 AM »
"Over time the death count will rise..."

Almost certainly.

The first case on the ship was less than 20 days ago. It can take up to 41 days for the disease to run its course, from initial infection to either recovery or death.

It will be an 'interesting' relatively controlled test case to see what the death rate ends up being in this particular situation.

The new Chinese prison situation may provide for another such grim relatively controlled test of death rates. :/
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1136 on: February 21, 2020, 11:44:15 AM »
"Over time the death count will rise..."

Almost certainly.

The first case on the ship was less than 20 days ago. It can take up to 41 days for the disease to run its course, from initial infection to either recovery or death.

It will be an 'interesting' relatively controlled test case to see what the death rate ends up being in this particular situation.

Will,

I completely agree with you.

The cruise ship(s) creates a test case with a control population that was infected or exposed over a more narrow window of time, and a defined limited population. If (and that is a big if) the authorities or researchers follow these individuals through time we might finally get a decent set of parameters about the case fatality rate and other factors.

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1137 on: February 21, 2020, 11:47:36 AM »
Here's the link to the Guardian piece about the Chinese prison situation

China prisons report 500 cases...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/21/coronavirus-live-updates-china-wuhan-hubei-south-korea-cases-infections-death-toll-outbreak-diamond-princess-latest-news

:::::::::::::::::::::::::

Sam wrote: " If (and that is a big if) the authorities or researchers follow these individuals through time we might finally get a decent set of parameters about the case fatality rate and other factors. "

It would be really insane if these folks weren't tracked carefully, but insanity does seem to generally rule the day lately...

:::::::::::::::::::::::::

It's been quite a while since I did any formal study in the area of math, but am I right that a straight upward line in a graph with a logarithmic scale indicates exponential growth? Is that what we see here? :

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-tot-outchina

(toggle to logarithmic at upper left...sorry, I couldn't figure out how to copy the image here)

« Last Edit: February 21, 2020, 12:13:18 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1138 on: February 21, 2020, 12:25:07 PM »
Something I wonder about from this data.

Note that the existing confirmed diagnosis tally is declining. If we subtract that from the Cumulative Diagnoses, we get 21,516. That is pretty close to the total cumulative tally of deaths and recoveries (2,239 and 18, 277, total = 20,516). I do not like that these numbers are precisely 1,000 apart.

Checking this now, I get
cumulative diagnosis 75571
less
Recovered 18614
deaths 2239
equals 54718

This matches Existing diagnosis 54718

I suspect your 1000 difference problem is that you gave
55,051 现存确诊  -1,335 较昨日
54,051 Existing confirmed diagnosis -1,335 since yesterday

oren

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1139 on: February 21, 2020, 12:27:08 PM »
Wili, it is indeed exponential or nearly so. Note that half of the total is the Diamond Princess, which is not necessarily representative data. (Is there such a thing anyway?)
The situation in S. Korea though is much worse, while Iran's curve is negligible which is certainly wrong.
So yes, that exponential curve - for lack of better data - should worry everyone. I am watching it every day.

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1140 on: February 21, 2020, 12:32:54 PM »
oren, nice to hear that I'm not the only one watching this closely :)

Wild speculation--there seem to be cases now stemming from Iran where no connection to China can be established. Could this be the result of an independent jump from animal to human in Iran?

--Much wilder speculation/observation--what countries are the US's biggest threats economically (trade wars anyone), and militarily (very recently on the verge of a new 'hot war')...?? Hmmmmm--
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

oren

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1141 on: February 21, 2020, 12:45:29 PM »
No need for complex explanations when a simple one exists. Some Chinese tourist or Iranian ex-tourist brought the virus unknowingly to Iran a few weeks ago, and it started spreading in the population. Now people are infected without knowing how and when.
The two dead Iranians should let you know this has been circulating for a while, as I think it takes a week at least to die from the disease, not even counting the incubation period which is also contagious.

crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1142 on: February 21, 2020, 12:55:26 PM »

It's been quite a while since I did any formal study in the area of math, but am I right that a straight upward line in a graph with a logarithmic scale indicates exponential growth? Is that what we see here? :

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-tot-outchina

(toggle to logarithmic at upper left...sorry, I couldn't figure out how to copy the image here)

Yes that is right and while that looks like what we see, there are important caveats:

However note that Diamond Princess 621 is over half of the 1200 cases. That is showing exponential growth.

The rest is a different situation. On Diamond Princess those cases have grown from one or just a few of those cases.  Diamond Princess had 3700 on board so that places a limit on those cases.

Other than Diamond Princess, the increase in cases is largely not growth from a small population within that group. Instead it is transport of different people from China and a few elsewhere. Some got out before flights ceased and only later developed symptoms, some were on evacuation flights and are quarantined and recently some have traveled from other places. If flights out have effectively ceased and evacuation flights have ceased then these cases have/will cease rather than growing exponentially.

It is the few cases that have traveled elsewhere that are most concerning and could show exponential growth for many generations of growth cycles. These numbers are still small and we want to see how they develop.

Using numbers like 343 12 days ago, 595 6 days ago and 1200 now is really a mish-mash of different things and doesn't properly show it is growing out of control.

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1143 on: February 21, 2020, 01:03:18 PM »
Number of cases in Iran up to 18, and 2 more people die of the coronavirus. That's 4 people dead, so how many will be there infected. Today you have the friday prayers, and elections. Both will move huge crowds of people. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/cloneofcloneofcloneofcloneofcloneof2002152244372-200220231446112.html

NevB

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1144 on: February 21, 2020, 01:03:42 PM »

This is precisely the problem. We do not know what we do not know.

Sam

Thanks Sam Your reasoning and logic on this topic sounds like it comes from a long forgotten era

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1145 on: February 21, 2020, 01:31:58 PM »
Easily overlooked issues regarding COVID-19
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/02/18/easily-overlooked-issues-regarding-covid-19/
Quote
The world economy may become very different, simply because of COVID-19. The new virus doesn’t even need to directly affect the rest of the world very much to create a problem. The United States, Europe, and the rest of the world are very much dependent on the continued operation of China. The world economy has effectively put way too many eggs in one basket, and this basket is not now functioning as expected.

If China is barely producing anything for world markets, the rest of the world will suddenly discover that long supply chains weren’t such a good idea. There will be a big scramble to try to fill in the missing pieces of supply chains, but many goods are likely to be less available. We may discover quickly how much we depend upon China for everything from shoes to automobiles to furniture to electronics. World carbon dioxide emissions are likely to fall dramatically because of China’s problems, but will the accompanying issues be ones that the world economy can tolerate?
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

etienne

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1146 on: February 21, 2020, 01:52:48 PM »
Economically speaking, it is very difficult to guess what will happen. There are so many interconnected things that it is just impossible to say.
Less goods will be available, but there will also be less buyers, and maybe there will be a sobering effect... Will we have inflation or deflation? It might be different depending what you're looking at. Wait and see seems to be the strategy now, excepted that I anticipated the replacement of my 10 years old computer this week, and that I slightly increased my food storage at home.
Added:
When storing food, you should only buy things you like, otherwise you'll have to throw it away when it will all be over.

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1147 on: February 21, 2020, 02:03:07 PM »
Easily overlooked issues regarding COVID-19
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2020/02/18/easily-overlooked-issues-regarding-covid-19/
Quote
The world economy may become very different, simply because of COVID-19. The new virus doesn’t even need to directly affect the rest of the world very much to create a problem. The United States, Europe, and the rest of the world are very much dependent on the continued operation of China. The world economy has effectively put way too many eggs in one basket, and this basket is not now functioning as expected.

If China is barely producing anything for world markets, the rest of the world will suddenly discover that long supply chains weren’t such a good idea. There will be a big scramble to try to fill in the missing pieces of supply chains, but many goods are likely to be less available. We may discover quickly how much we depend upon China for everything from shoes to automobiles to furniture to electronics. World carbon dioxide emissions are likely to fall dramatically because of China’s problems, but will the accompanying issues be ones that the world economy can tolerate?

Maersk had 50+ container ship trips canceled, and they have 15 % of the market. That's 7 x 50 = 350 container ships. One ship is something like 20 000 containers. So 7 million containers will not arrive at their destination next month. And the number is growing.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1148 on: February 21, 2020, 02:13:09 PM »
This would prove a very cruel 'twist of fate' if it proves true!

https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202002.0258/v1?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Cue the White supremacists explaining just why these populations are suffering worst.........
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1149 on: February 21, 2020, 02:13:26 PM »
It Is Possible Coronavirus Exists In All Iranian Cities, Health Ministry Says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/coronavirus-latest-updates-chinas-hubei-reports-115-additional-deaths.html

The coronavirus has spread to several Iranian cities, a health ministry reportedly said on Friday, before adding that the flu-like virus might now exist in every city nationwide.

“Based on existing reports, the spread of the coronavirus started in Qom and with attention to people’s travels has now reached several cities in the country, including Tehran, Babol, Arak, Isfahan, Rasht and other cities. And it is possible that it exists in all cities in Iran,” Health Ministry official Minou Mohrez said Friday, Reuters reported, citing the country’s official IRNA news agency.

... Seven people found to have contracted the flu-like virus were diagnosed in Qom, four people in Tehran and two in Gilan, Jahanpur said Friday

The total number of confirmed cases in Iran has now climbed to 18, with four deaths.

----------------------------

South Korea Confirms 48 Further Cases of Coronavirus, Total Exceeds 200
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/coronavirus-latest-updates-chinas-hubei-reports-115-additional-deaths.html

South Korea has confirmed an additional 48 cases of the coronavirus, bringing the total number of infections nationwide to 204.

The Korea Centers for Disease Control & Prevention said Friday that most of the new cases came from the city of Daegu, with many linked to Sincheon Daegu Church.

... Jun Eun-kyeong, head of the Korea Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC), said a survey of 4,500 church followers – about half of Shincheonji’s congregation in Daegu – revealed more than 500 were experiencing symptoms of Covid-19, which causes a pneumonia-like illness.

An earlier briefing reported a further 52 people had contracted the deadly flu-like virus in South Korea. (See 9:11 a.m. update).

It means the country has confirmed an additional 100 cases of the coronavirus in just one day.

----------------------------

Israel Confirms Passenger Tested Positive Upon Return from Coronavirus-Hit Ship in Japan

Israel’s Ministry of Health on Friday confirmed a passenger returning from a coronavirus-hit Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan has tested positive for COVID-19.

The patient is in quarantine and under supervision, the Health Ministry said in a statement, adding the infection did not take place in Israel.

----------------------------

Confirmed Cases in Hubei Province Cannot Be Removed, Must Now Be Added Back, Official Says
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/coronavirus-latest-updates-chinas-hubei-reports-115-additional-deaths.html

Following several days of back-and-forth over how Hubei defines virus cases, an official for the province’s health commission said confirmed infections cannot be removed from the province’s official count, state news agency Xinhua reported Friday, citing a news conference.

Cases that have been removed must all be added back, the official said, according to the report.

The official cited a stringent demand from the province’s party secretary, Ying Yong, a former Shanghai mayor who assumed the position last week.

On Thursday, the Hubei Provincial Health Committee reported there were 349 new cases as of Feb. 19 — down from 1,693 newly confirmed cases the day before. The commission said that 349 was the final tally after deducting 279 cases from 10 Hubei cities.

(... for those keeping score at home ... GIGO)

--------------------------

Hundreds of New Virus Cases Stem from Chinese Prisons

State reports of 512 coronavirus cases on Friday traced back to four prisons in mainland China, including two in Hubei, the center of the disease’s outbreak.

.
« Last Edit: February 21, 2020, 03:16:24 PM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late