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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 341373 times)

SteveMDFP

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1150 on: February 21, 2020, 02:31:18 PM »

Maersk had 50+ container ship trips canceled, and they have 15 % of the market. That's 7 x 50 = 350 container ships. One ship is something like 20 000 containers. So 7 million containers will not arrive at their destination next month. And the number is growing.

Quite true, but I think this is plainly a short-term problem.  Not because the pandemic will stop, quite the opposite. 

Once all locations are experiencing cases, there's no reason to restrict transportation any more.  We're probably just a few weeks from that being the situation in every major city around the world.

That's for goods, anyway.  People will need to avoid congregating, everywhere.  So plane, train, bus, and subway travel will all become hazardous.  Plane travel anywhere probably already is.  We'll have a short-term shift towards automobile travel. 

With exponential growth in case numbers, we'll transition away from quarantining possibly infected individuals to maybe quarantining healthy groups.  That's generally even less effective than the reverse.   

In 1918, funeral homes had to hire armed guards to protect supplies of coffins from theft.  Graves were dug en mass by steam shovel.  There isn't much to change the trajectory today.  Effective anti-viral treatment (though identified) isn't generally available.  A vaccine will be produced, but not until after the pandemic is long past it's peak.  We're no better able to contain spread today than we were in 1918, probably far less able.

The demographics of the mortality are very different with this virus.  This epidemic spares the young. 

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1151 on: February 21, 2020, 02:46:13 PM »
First Confirmed Coronavirus Case Reported in Lebanon
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/coronavirus-outbreak-death-toll-infections-latest-news-updates-2020-02-21/

The first confirmed coronavirus case was reported in Lebanon Friday, according to the country's ministry of health.

A woman who had traveled to Lebanon from Iran tested positive for COVID-19, the health ministry said, adding that there were two other suspected cases, according to the Reuters news agency.

The woman had arrived in Lebanon from the Iranian city of Qom, Reuters reported.

----------------------------

(... It's a matter of time before we see positive cases in Iraq. US troops are in Iraq.

Didn't the troops bring back Spanish flu in 1918?
)

---------------------------------

Chinese Trials for Gilead’s Antiviral Drug to Treat Coronavirus Still Far From Reaching Patient Recruitment Goals
https://www.scmp.com/tech/science-research/article/3051820/chinese-trials-gileads-antiviral-drug-treat-coronavirus-still

Researchers have recruited more than 230 patients for the trials so far, short of the 760 targeted

Clinical trials of an experimental antiviral drug said to “show promise” in treating the deadly coronavirus are still far from fulfilling patient recruitment targets more than two weeks in, raising questions about whether they can be completed within previously projected timelines.

Double-blind trials of Gilead Sciences’ drug, remdesivir, are now taking place in 10 hospitals in Wuhan, vice-minister of science and technology Xu Nanping said at a press conference on Friday.

Currently, the trials involve more than 200 severe patients and over 30 mild or moderate cases, according to Xu. This is up from the 168 severe and 17 mild or moderate cases reported by Xu's colleague Zhang Xinmin at a separate press conference on Saturday, but still less than a third of the targeted total of 760 patients, according to documents for the study listed on ClinicalTrials.gov, an international clinical trial registry run by the United States National Library of Medicine.

The researchers had aimed to recruit 308 mild and moderate patients with the novel coronavirus and 452 severe cases, with both trials involving hospitalised patients with Covid-19, the respiratory disease caused by the virus, taking a nine-day dose of the drug to test its efficacy and safety.

Patients who have received any other experimental treatments within 30 days of the time they are screened are excluded from the remdesivir trials, according to the documents on ClinicalTrials.gov, possibly limiting the pool of qualified candidates, especially as authorities ramp up containment measures.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1152 on: February 21, 2020, 03:22:28 PM »
Quote
Once all locations are experiencing cases, there's no reason to restrict transportation any more.

Positive patients must be quarantined from each other for many of the same reasons countries with positive results should be quarantined from each other. But then you have to weigh the burden of disease vs the burden of hunger that may come from a cessation of trade.

  Export from places with a full out of control epidemic must be stopped. This is also the best time to send help to those who need it. The faster the people in an epidemic get things under control, the less chance for spreading. Doing the opposite, stopping trade, will make things get out of control for everyone.

I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

kassy

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1153 on: February 21, 2020, 03:36:35 PM »
Didn't the troops bring back Spanish flu in 1918?)

Nope.

At the height of WWI, history’s most lethal influenza virus erupted in an army camp in Kansas, moved east with American troops, then exploded, killing as many as 100 million people worldwide. It killed more people in twenty-four months than AIDS killed in twenty-four years, more in a year than the Black Death killed in a century. But this was not the Middle Ages, and 1918 marked the first collision of science and epidemic disease.

John M. Barry The Great Influenza

There is nothing Spanish about the 1918 flu.
Sadly i can´t look up the details because i don´t have the book anymore.
Þetta minnismerki er til vitnis um að við vitum hvað er að gerast og hvað þarf að gera. Aðeins þú veist hvort við gerðum eitthvað.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1154 on: February 21, 2020, 03:38:49 PM »
COVID-19 And Global Supply Chains: Watch Out For Bullwhip Effects
https://www.forbes.com/sites/willyshih/2020/02/21/covid-19-and-global-supply-chains-watch-out-for-bullwhip-effects/

Interesting article on the effects of time-lag and bull-whip effects in supply chains.

A slow-motion locomotive is heading our way.

The Midwest may have a shortage of shipping containers in the next few weeks.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1155 on: February 21, 2020, 03:48:07 PM »
Didn't the troops bring back Spanish flu in 1918?)

Nope.

At the height of WWI, history’s most lethal influenza virus erupted in an army camp in Kansas, moved east with American troops, then exploded, killing as many as 100 million people worldwide. It killed more people in twenty-four months than AIDS killed in twenty-four years, more in a year than the Black Death killed in a century. But this was not the Middle Ages, and 1918 marked the first collision of science and epidemic disease.

John M. Barry The Great Influenza

There is nothing Spanish about the 1918 flu.
Sadly i can´t look up the details because i don´t have the book anymore.

It was the second wave, after it had mutated, that the Yanks fetched back through in the autumn of 1918 that was the real killer.

Only called the 'Spanish Flu' as Spain was 'neutral' and so could discuss in their MSM whilst combatant Nations kept schtum lest it impacted moral/war effort.......
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1156 on: February 21, 2020, 04:00:29 PM »
Tree new cases in Italy. Non of them visited China.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1157 on: February 21, 2020, 04:14:08 PM »
Quote
Once all locations are experiencing cases, there's no reason to restrict transportation any more.

Positive patients must be quarantined from each other for many of the same reasons countries with positive results should be quarantined from each other. 

No, if you and I are both infected with the same virus, there's no reason we can't share a hospital room.  But beware, I may snore.   ;)

Alison

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1158 on: February 21, 2020, 04:17:14 PM »
Appears to have been fact checked quite well:

History of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic





Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1159 on: February 21, 2020, 04:22:04 PM »
Currently watching Pandemic...

Little Chance of Coronavirus Containment in South Korea
https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/little-chance-of-coronavirus-containment-in-south-korea-msxHExBwCkOc-VuEkOhgrw
Quote
High-speed bullet train from Seoul to Daegu is definitely one of the most comfortable ways to journey between the two cities as it will take you from Seoul Central Station to both Dongdaegu station or Daegu station in just about 2 hours. High-speed Intercity train Mugunghwa, as well as express trains ITX-Saemaul and ITX, provide an amazing opportunity to travel with comfort though the trip will take approximately 3,5 hours. It is worth considering that ticket prices are almost the same for each type of train, so ardent train journey enthusiasts who value fast connections will be satisfied. With more than 80 bullet train departures depending on the weekday, an extensive train schedule allows you to plan your upcoming adventure absolutely worry-free. Already feel inspired to tour South Korea? Check Seoul to Daegu train timetable and book the best tickets with Rail Ninja, the online booking platform for European trains.

SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

SteveMDFP

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1160 on: February 21, 2020, 04:44:11 PM »
Appears to have been fact checked quite well:

History of the 1918 Influenza Pandemic


It's an excellent, succinct summary.  The History Guy has an amazing and fascinating portfolio of history videos.

The 1918 pandemic is, I think, a rather close parallel to our current situation.  The virus is roughly as contagious and roughly as lethal.  Similarly, nobody has immunity from prior infection from similar virus (except SARS and MERS survivors, maybe).  Similarly, treatment is unavailable (though identified). 

We have testing now, but test kits are in short supply.  It seems certain that test kit production isn't keeping up with the need for testing.  The disparity between need and access will only grow.  We're not *as* blind to epidemic spread as we were then, but it may not be as improved over 1918 as people assume.

It would be an overstatement to say that the world is flying blind with this epidemic, but we don't exactly have clear vision, either.

Halting the spread is impossible.  Slowing the spread is the best we can hope for.  Given our much greater use of long-distance transportation, I doubt we'll do any better on this score than we did in 1918, probably worse.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1161 on: February 21, 2020, 04:52:24 PM »
SteveMDFP:
I think the big difference between 1918 and 2020 is that now people are highly dependent on a global, just-in-time trade system. Back then most people lived on farms, and cities had sizable supplies of food and other essentials.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1162 on: February 21, 2020, 05:11:30 PM »
If it starts to spread, we could do shopping for the elderly. That could lower the fatality rate. And that would keep some extra space in hospitals.

Archimid

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1163 on: February 21, 2020, 05:21:23 PM »
Quote
No, if you and I are both infected with the same virus, there's no reason we can't share a hospital room.  But beware, I may snore.

I'm sorry but this is simply not true in large numbers of infected people sharing the same space. The statistical advantage of small numbers of people may make it true in small numbers of people.

Just like all members of human species are not the same, all members of a virus are not the same. There are very small variations. Some people might be immune from one variation while vulnerable to a different variation of the same virus.

Also, viruses change every time they are copied eventually resulting in mutations. These changes are small but the larger the group of infected sharing the same space, the higher the chance any of these changes have adverse effects and of mutations to spread.

Also, the immune system will have a harder time fighting the infection if the air is filled with infectious agents all varying according to their host.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1164 on: February 21, 2020, 06:11:08 PM »
Two Beijing Hospitals Quarantined Amid Fears Coronavirus Infections Will Spike In the Capital
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Coronavirus-clusters-at-Beijing-hospitals-ignite-new-fears
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/02/21/81d2aa50-543e-11ea-b119-4faabac6674f_story.html

BEIJING — Reports of new infections in Beijing have sparked fears over the capital's exposure to the deadly novel coronavirus, especially as millions of people head back to work after an extended holiday.

New confirmed cases have led to large-scale quarantines in at least two hospitals in downtown Beijing, with many potential contacts yet to be traced, according to a city government news briefing on Friday.

Fuxing Hospital in the Xicheng district, and only a block away from an apartment complex known as home to many senior government officials, is now under a total lockdown.

Medical workers in full protective gear were guarding the gate on Friday, where a sign read that all visitors were banned.

It reported 36 novel coronavirus cases Thursday, with eight medical workers and nine cleaning staff infected, as well as 19 patients or their relatives. A total of 668 people who had been in contact with the infected patients were placed under observation.

The central Beijing district of Xicheng — which is home to the Zhongnanhai compound and the offices of the Communist Party’s leaders, as well as many government offices and the central bank — is next after Wuhan in the number of confirmed cases per square kilometer, the Global Times reported.

... Hospitals and medical workers faced the highest risk of infection. As of Feb. 11, the government acknowledged more than 3,000 medical workers nationwide as confirmed carriers of the disease, almost 90% of them in Hubei, according to the National Health Commission. But a study by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that the actual number of medical worker infections could be twice as high as the official figure.

The Thursday briefing also shed light on how doctors can contract the virus. Wang Guangfa, a respiratory and intensive care doctor, visited Wuhan on Jan. 8 as a member of the NHC expert team to investigate the outbreak. Wang returned to Beijing on Jan. 16 and was diagnosed five days later.

Another doctor at a Beijing public hospital was infected after a visit to Wuhan on Jan. 10. A colleague was confirmed with the infection after sitting beside him at a meeting, according to the briefing.

With migrant workers set to return to Beijing in droves after the coronavirus-related extension of the Lunar New Year holiday, officials are clearly worried about the prospect that the returnees could bring the infection. A new rule stipulates that all people entering Beijing must quarantine themselves at home for 14 days before going out in the city.

---------------------------------

Update: Six Test Positive for the Coronavirus in Northern Italy
https://www.thelocal.it/20200221/three-italians-test-positive-for-coronavirus-in-lombardy
Eight More New Cases in italy, Total Tally Rises to 17
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/02/21/81d2aa50-543e-11ea-b119-4faabac6674f_story.html

Schools, bars, and restaurants in a Lombardy town have shut as officials warn residents to stay at home as a precaution after 6 people tested positive for the coronavirus on Friday.

Six Italian nationals have tested positive for the coronavirus in the city of Codogno, in the northern Lombardy region, local authorities confirmed on Friday morning.

They are the first known cases of local transmission of the potentially deadly illness within the country.

The first person confrmed to have contracted the virus was a 38-year-old man was confirmed to have contracted the virus after meeting a friend who had recently returned from China, authorities said.

The man, now being cared for in isolation in hospital, is said to be in a “very serious” condition.

Soon after, two more people tested positive for the virus – the initial patient's pregnant wife, and another man he had come into contact with, the Ansa news agency reported.

Three more cases were confirmed on Friday afternoon, as health authorities in the town advised residents of Codogno and nearby Castiglione d'Adda to stay at home as a precaution and avoid all social contact.

Police have reconstructed the man's movements over the last four days and are trying to find anyone he or his wife may have been in contact with.

Authorities are reportedly considering the use of military facilities for quarantine.

Eight more new cases have tested positive in Northern italy, Total tally rises to 17

---------------------------------

Iraq Bans Border Crossings By Iranians Amid Coronavirus Fears
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-iraq-borders/iraq-bans-border-crossings-by-iranians-amid-coronavirus-fears-idUSKBN20E2T4

CAIRO (Reuters) - Iraq banned border crossings by Iranian nationals for three days from Thursday amid fears of the coronavirus, Iraq’s state news agency said on Thursday.

The decision came after Iraqi Airways suspended flights to Iran.

----------------------------------

UAE Records Two New Coronavirus Cases, Total Number Reaches 11
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/cloneofcloneofcloneofcloneofcloneof2002152244372-200220231446112.html

The United Arab Emirates said it had registered two new coronavirus cases, bringing the total number of people diagnosed with the virus in the Gulf Arab state to 11.

------------------------------------

Resources:

Japan Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare Daily information Release
https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/houdou/houdou_list_202002.html
https://www.mhlw.go.jp/stf/newpage_09698.html

Iran Ministry of Health Daily information Release
http://behdasht.gov.ir/index.jsp?siteid=1&fkeyid=&siteid=1&pageid=54782&newsview=199800

Korea Center for Disease Control Daily information Release
https://www.cdc.go.kr/board/board.es?mid=a30402000000&bid=0030

-----------------------------
« Last Edit: February 22, 2020, 05:34:48 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

oren

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1165 on: February 21, 2020, 06:39:43 PM »
From GlobalTimes:
Quote
Wuhan, the epicenter of the novel coronavirus outbreak, plans to build another 19 makeshift hospitals to receive more infected patients, local authorities said Friday.
As mentioned, normal bed/population ratio is completely insufficient to deal with a serious Covid-19 outbreak.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1166 on: February 21, 2020, 06:56:42 PM »
Virus Epidemic Enters New Phase as Cases Outside China Climb
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-21/virus-epidemic-enters-new-phase-as-cases-outside-china-multiply

South Korea’s cases have climbed past 200. The tallies for Singapore and Japan have topped 85. There are the 600-plus from a quarantined cruise ship in Japan, and new cases are popping up in the Middle East and Italy.

While China still accounts for the vast majority of coronavirus cases and deaths, there are now signs infections are spreading more rapidly within other Asian countries. Anxiety is creeping into financial markets, as investors weigh the impact of a wider regional outbreak on economic growth and corporate earnings.

“The cases that we see that are not linked to China are very worrisome,” Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters at a press briefing in Geneva. The window of opportunity to stop the spread in countries outside China is “really narrowing,” he said. “This outbreak could go in any direction.”

A new study published Friday estimated that about two-thirds of coronavirus cases exported from mainland China have gone undetected worldwide, potentially leaving sources of human-to-human transmission unchecked. The analysis, led by researchers at Imperial College London, used air-travel data to estimate what case counts should be in countries outside China.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

In Asia, South Korea saw infections double in 24 hours, with the surge tied to a cluster from a religious sect in Daegu. Even more alarming is the situation in Japan, which has emerged as one of the riskiest places outside China for the spread of the coronavirus. Health Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Sunday that Japan had lost track of the route of some of the infections, which tripled in the past week to more than 90.

The situation has the potential to escalate given the presence of high-risk factors like Japan’s elderly population and a societal work ethic that often frowns on taking a sick day.

... Some say the Diamond Princess could be a potential powder keg as more than 1,000 quarantined passengers leave the ship by the end of Friday. With people aboard hailing from more than 50 nations and now returning home, their travels could spawn a fresh wave of global infections. On Friday, two people evacuated to Australia tested positive for the virus.

“It’s entirely possible to get tested, be negative and get on an airplane and be positive once you land,” said Keiji Fukuda, the director of the School of Public Health at Hong Kong University and a former World Health Organization official who has led responses to outbreaks. “That’s just how infections work.”

------------------------------

Plane Evacuating Cruise Passengers Re-routed After Turkey Denies Landing Permission Amid Novel Coronavirus Fears
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/plane-evacuating-cruise-passengers-routed-turkey-denies-landing/story?id=69109034

The flight was carrying 283 people when it was forced to land in Pakistan.

A Turkish airliner chartered by Holland America cruise line to evacuate passengers from its Westerdam cruise was abruptly turned around mid-flight Thursday, according to flight data and multiple sources.

The flight was carrying 268 citizens from multiple countries, including the United States, when it was forced to land in Karachi, Pakistan, instead of Istanbul, Turkey -- its original destination.

Holland America confirmed the incident, saying in a statement to ABC News that the chartered flight "was unexpectedly instructed by Turkish officials to turn around midway through its journey," even though passengers on board had been cleared by the Cambodian Ministry of Health with a letter approved by the World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's office in Cambodia, where the ship has been docked.

While in the skies over Iran, Turkish Airlines Flight 3441 informed air traffic control that it had a "technical issue" and needed to land. An hour and 40 minutes later, it made a previously unscheduled landing at Karachi International Airport at around 9:50 p.m., local time, according to a Pakistani civil aviation official.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Shared Humanity

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1167 on: February 21, 2020, 08:10:57 PM »
Sam, I think your mortality numbers are too high. We clearly need to differentiate between the numbers of Hubei province and all others.

Clearly, Hubei can not and does not count all cases, and only severe cases are counted. We know that even very sick people are not accepted to hospitals and not tested and they are simply told to go home and self-quarantine. Ergo, there are many more infected in Hubei than currently calculated. So Hubei numbers are useless. We need to use numbers from outside of Hubei, and not surprisingly those are pretty much similar to each other but are in stark contrast to Hubei. Nowhere has anything close to the calculated mortality of Hubei!
 
If we take the dead to recovered ratio, it is 15% in Hubei but more importantly, 1,5% everywhere else. This means two things:

1. The number of infected is underestimated by a factor of 10 in Hubei, so cca half a million people are infected there

2. The true mortality rate is likely 1-2%

It is like the Spanish Flu

Thank you. I tried to make a similar point earlier but did not do it effectively. I agree. The mortality rates are much lower than what has been discussed here as many cases go unreported and the patients recover after mild symptoms. Many of the reports of evacuees indicate that a large number of those who test positive have mild symptoms or are asymptomatic.

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1169 on: February 21, 2020, 08:23:13 PM »
One more thing: the Diamond Princess, full of elderly, reports 634 infected and only 2 dead. If this was as lethal as you think, then we would have at least 50 but rather 100 dead there already. Almost all of them are 60+ and many are 80+!

And whether intended or not, this ship is a perfectly controlled lab experiment. The testing is exhaustive, the numbers are accurate, the ships passengers are generally wealthier and older and I doubt they are hiding bodies in the boiler room or tossing them overboard.

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1170 on: February 21, 2020, 08:30:56 PM »
One more thing: the Diamond Princess, full of elderly, reports 634 infected and only 2 dead. If this was as lethal as you think, then we would have at least 50 but rather 100 dead there already. Almost all of them are 60+ and many are 80+!

And whether intended or not, this ship is a perfectly controlled lab experiment. The testing is exhaustive, the numbers are accurate, the ships passengers are generally wealthier and older and I doubt they are hiding bodies in the boiler room or tossing them overboard.

I think it will take another 2 weeks before we know how many will die. As we assume it started with one infected person at the start in Hong Kong.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1171 on: February 21, 2020, 08:44:01 PM »
oren, nice to hear that I'm not the only one watching this closely :)

Wild speculation--there seem to be cases now stemming from Iran where no connection to China can be established. Could this be the result of an independent jump from animal to human in Iran?

--Much wilder speculation/observation--what countries are the US's biggest threats economically (trade wars anyone), and militarily (very recently on the verge of a new 'hot war')...?? Hmmmmm--

Iran has extensive business ties with China. With such a long asymptomatic incubation period with some cases, I expect this is simply that community transfer has been established in Iran as a result of travelers from China. Would not be surprised if Iran numbers look like South Korea shortly.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1172 on: February 21, 2020, 09:03:18 PM »
My guess would be that many of the countries now reporting increases in cases due to community transmission actually now have thousands, if not tens of thousands, infected.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1173 on: February 21, 2020, 09:37:49 PM »
U.S.
CDC prepares for possibility coronavirus becomes a pandemic and businesses, schools need to be closed
Published Fri, Feb 21 2020 12:32 PM EST
Quote
U.S. health officials are preparing for the COVID-19 coronavirus, which has killed at least 2,249 people and sickened more than 76,700 worldwide, to become a pandemic, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday.

"We're not seeing community spread here in the United States, yet, but it's very possible, even likely, that it may eventually happen," Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call. "Our goal continues to be slowing the introduction of the virus into the U.S. This buys us more time to prepare communities for more cases and possibly sustained spread."

Messonnier said the CDC is working with state and local health departments "to ready our public health workforce to respond to local cases and the possibility this outbreak could become a pandemic." The CDC is collaborating with supply chain partners, hospitals, pharmacies and manufacturers to understand what medical supplies are needed, she said.

"This will help CDC understand when we may need to take more aggressive measures to ensure that health-care workers on the front lines have access to the supplies that they need," she said. "We are reviewing all of our pandemic materials and adapting them to COVID-19."

Messonnier pointed to China, where schools and businesses have been shuttered for weeks to contain the outbreak there, saying the U.S. may eventually need to do the same.

"The day may come where we may need to implement such measures in this country," she said. ...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/us-health-officials-prepare-for-coronavirus-outbreak-to-become-pandemic.html
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1174 on: February 21, 2020, 09:46:40 PM »
Chinese coronavirus patient reinfected 10 days after leaving hospital
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3879345
Quote
Several doctors from Wuhan, the epicenter of COVID-19, said last week that it is possible for recovered patients to contract the virus a second time. They warned that a recurring infection could be even more damaging to a patient's body and that the tests are susceptible to false negatives.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1175 on: February 21, 2020, 11:49:58 PM »
Islam, in my understanding, demands we prostrate ourselves 5 times a day (in close quarters with others in the room?)

How will this pan out in Iran?

And the Christian's (cult or other?) how will their 'gatherings' hasten spread?
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ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1176 on: February 21, 2020, 11:57:17 PM »
Gray-wolf:
In the TV miniseries The Stand a Church was packed with rotting corpses because the people sought solace in religion.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1177 on: February 22, 2020, 12:01:38 AM »
it just appears 'odd' that those of 'faith' appear more at risk from this via their 'communal' activities?

I suppose we can't discern 'his almighty plan' ?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1178 on: February 22, 2020, 01:51:51 AM »
21-Feb-20 World View -- Planning for Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19)
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e200221.htm#e200221
Quote
This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Planning for Wuhan Coronavirus (Covid-19)
The V-Shaped Recovery
Credibility of Chinese Communist Party (CCP)
The CDC and the bioweapon rumors
Xi Jinping and 'Social Instability'
Developing a Vaccine
Singapore - a coronavirus bellwether
Japan - another bellwether
Coronavirus in Africa
War zones - Africa and Mideast
The explosive situation in Idlib, Syria
The Future of Coronavirus
V-Shaped Recovery -- learning from the financial crisis
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crandles

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1179 on: February 22, 2020, 02:09:47 AM »
Existing cases 53371 down 4726 from peak of 58097 4 days ago.

Deaths 109 may also have peaked, but it seems a noisier data set so harder to be sure.

Severe cases also continuing downwards.

If numbers are coming down like that, do they need extra makeshift hospitals to be built? Maybe they want more isolation to be possible?


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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1180 on: February 22, 2020, 02:50:59 AM »
I think it's been pretty clearly established the the numbers coming out of China are at best subject to changing definitions and practices.

That's why I'd like to keep special track of the reported cases outside China.

Yes, they are probably still vastly undercounting. But perhaps in a consistent enough way that the numbers give some notion of what is really going on.

I don't think it is useful to subtract 'special' cases like the Diamond Princess. Should we also discount the Korean cult? Or the Chinese prison (for numbers there)? All these are just the result of the variety of types of 'petri dishes' that humans willingly or unwillingly put ourselves into where viruses can go wild. And there will likely be an accelerating number such 'petri dishes' for some time to come.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1181 on: February 22, 2020, 03:19:45 AM »
South Korea Records Another Huge Jump in Cases
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/22/coronavirus-south-korea-sees-huge-jump-cases-china-hubei-wuhan-outbreak-

South Korea has reported another huge jump in cases of coronavirus as the country fights to contain the spread of the deadly disease.

The number of infections has increased by 142 to 346, officials said on Saturday, with most of the cases in the city of Daegu two hours south of Seoul and the surrounding region.

Of the new cases, 131 are linked to the Shincheonji Church of Jesus in Daegu.

More than 1,250 other church members have reported potential symptoms, health officials said, raising the possibility that the nation’s caseload could skyrocket.


The agency also said that another person has died, bringing the death toll in South Korea to two.

Daegu’s authorities have closed public buildings, silencing its usually busy streets. Troops at South KJorean and US military bases have been confined to barracks.

-------------------------

In Australia, six people evacuated back to Darwin from the virus-hit Diamond Princess cruise ship in Japan have tested positive to Covid-19. Another three people who have developed symptoms were being tested on Saturday.

There were 170 Australians on the evacuation flight and all were checked for symptoms before leaving Yokohama, where they had been kept on the ship.

---------------------------
« Last Edit: February 22, 2020, 06:16:52 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

pileus

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1182 on: February 22, 2020, 04:13:12 AM »
It’s actually ok to be an atheist or none and not mock those who practice their version of faith, whether they are sincere or hypocritical.

I am a very content atheist, but understand and respect the need for more traditional spiritual outlets that draw multitudes.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1183 on: February 22, 2020, 04:55:50 AM »
With 4 Deaths in Iran and More Cases on 3 Continents, Fears of Coronavirus Pandemic Rise
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/21/world/asia/china-coronavirus-iran.html

HONG KONG — An alarming surge of new coronavirus cases outside China, with fears of a major outbreak in Iran, is threatening to transform the contagion into a global pandemic, as countries around the Middle East scrambled to close their borders and continents so far largely spared reported big upticks in the illness.

In Iran, which had insisted as recently as Tuesday that it had no cases, the virus may now have reached most major cities, including Tehran, and has killed at least four people, according to health officials. Already, cases of travelers from Iran testing positive for the virus have turned up in Canada and Lebanon.

The number of cases also soared in South Korea, with the sudden spread tied to a secretive church where hundreds of congregants attended services with numerous people infected with the virus.

The United States now has 34 cases, with more expected, and Italy experienced a spike from three cases to 17 and ordered mandatory quarantine measures.

... The almost random nature of new reports and new deaths is an indication the virus is moving much faster than countries are reporting to the W.H.O., ...

... The disturbing reports out of Tehran suggested the virus was being transmitted far more widely there than officials had previously acknowledged. While the country’s health officials confirmed only 18 cases by Friday, the number of deaths indicates the total is likely to be far higher.

Four reported deaths probably mean at least 200 cases, said Michael T. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. If the virus kills about 2 percent of known victims, as Chinese doctors have reported, then the number of deaths can be multiplied by 50 to get a rough case estimate, he explained.

“People don’t die right away of this virus — it usually takes two or three weeks after cases start to spread for the first death,” Mr. Osterholm said. “So there may be a lot more cases, and a lot more deaths on the way. And we didn’t even know there was a problem in Iran before yesterday.”

A spokesman for the Health Ministry, Kianush Jahanpur, said on Friday there were more than 735 people hospitalized with flulike symptoms who were being tested for the virus.

In Qom, schools and religious seminaries were shut down on Thursday as officials urged people to avoid gathering in large groups. But on Friday, as Iranians went to vote in parliamentary elections, polling stations were open and the communal pools of ink for people to dip their fingers proving they voted were in wide use.

With rumors spreading across the country on instant messaging services like Telegram, a confused and increasingly worried public watched as Tehran’s largest metro station was suddenly closed. Workers wearing protective gear descended on the station, apparently responding to reports of sick commuters. It remained closed Friday night.

... Mahmoud Sadeghi, an outspoken member of Parliament from Tehran, accused the government of “covering up the spread of an epidemic.”

Critics accused the government of playing down the disease, and failing to take strict precautions to prevent its arrival in the country, in order to avoid provoking China, a key trading partner and a lifeline for Iran’s economy in the face of U.S. sanctions.

The sanctions against Iran could hamper its ability to contain the spread of the virus.

“Iran does have problems accessing specialized medication for rare and special diseases (... like anti-virals)because of sanctions — either private companies or banks refuse to work with Iran in fear of U.S. secondary sanctions,”
said Tara Sepehri Far, an Iran researcher at Human Rights Watch.

... “How many of these clusters and travel cases and prison outbreaks do we have to see before we realize that we’re just seeing the tip of the iceberg?” he said. “Testing is just getting set up around the world. There’s barely any in Africa right now. Even in the U.S., we’re testing travel cases — but we’re not testing in any meaningful way that will pick up cases that we didn’t suspect were there.”

-----------------------------



-----------------------------------

World Health Organisation Says 'Time Is Running Out To Contain the Outbreak'
https://www.msn.com/en-my/news/national/coronavirus-warning-world-health-organisation-says-time-is-running-out-to-contain-the-outbreak/ar-BB10fKjp

World health chiefs fear that time is running out to "contain the outbreak" of the deadly Covid-19 coronavirus.

The World Health Organisation warned that the timeframe to stop the situation becoming an international epidemic in a latest update on Friday evening.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the organisation's director-general, questioned whether the outbreak is at a "tipping point" after new cases and deaths in Iran.

... He said it was "very concerning" that Iran had reported 18 cases and four deaths in just the past two days.

-----------------------------------

CDC Prepares for Possibility Coronavirus Becomes a Pandemic and Businesses, Schools Need to be Closed
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/us-health-officials-prepare-for-coronavirus-outbreak-to-become-pandemic.html

The CDC is working with state and local health departments to ready the public health workforce to respond to a possible pandemic.

The agency is collaborating with supply chain partners, hospitals, pharmacies and manufacturers to understand what medical supplies are needed.

The CDC is reviewing all of its pandemic materials and adapting them to COVID-19.

“We’re not seeing community spread here in the United States, yet, but it’s very possible, even likely, that it may eventually happen,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call. “Our goal continues to be slowing the introduction of the virus into the U.S. This buys us more time to prepare communities for more cases and possibly sustained spread.”

... Messonnier pointed to China, where schools and businesses have been shuttered for weeks to contain the outbreak there, saying the U.S. may eventually need to do the same.

“The day may come where we may need to implement such measures in this country,” she said.

... Of the 329 Americans brought back from Japan, Messonnier said 18 of them tested positive for COVID-19. She said it’s possible that some of those patients did not test positive before boarding the evacuation flights in Japan but that they were “already incubating the disease.”

-----------------------------



-----------------------------

Coronavirus Outbreak Edges Closer to Pandemic
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/coronavirus-outbreak-edges-closer-to-pandemic/ar-BB10fJLZ?li=BBnb7Kz

... Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch estimates that 40 to 70 percent of the human population could potentially be infected by the virus if it becomes pandemic. Not all of those people would get sick, he noted. The estimated death rate from covid-19 — roughly two out of 100 confirmed infections — may also drop over time as researchers get a better understanding of how widely the virus has spread.

The novel coronavirus may be particularly suited for stealth community transmission since its symptoms can be indistinguishable from those of a cold or flu, and testing capabilities are still being ramped up.

Experts estimate it takes about a week for the number of people infected in a given community to double. Based on that, it would likely take several weeks for a new infection cluster to be picked up by a local health department, said Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle. By mid-March, he estimated, officials should know if there is community transmission and a true pandemic.

The virus has already infected people in every province in China, and is now spreading in communities in Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam, Hong Kong and Japan, according to Nancy Messonnier, a top Centers for Disease Control and Prevention official.

“I want to be clear that we are not seeing community spread here in the United States yet,” she said on Friday. “But it’s very possible, even likely, that may eventually happen.”

... The lethality of the new coronavirus remains difficult to estimate. But across the planet, many health systems are already preparing for a pandemic emergency. That includes making plans for treating people who are suspected of having the disease, and for protecting health care workers.

Public health experts are devising strategies on how to conserve N95 respirators, specialized masks that are in a limited supply amid surging demand. They’re even thinking about seemingly small details, like how to make sure patients don’t spark new infections when they use a touch screen to check in, or pump sanitizer onto their hands.

“We have to be ready,” said Paul Biddinger, chief of the division of emergency preparedness for Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston. “Extrapolating from some of the numbers we’ve seen on the impact to the health care system in China, it means we’ll have to surge fast.”
« Last Edit: February 22, 2020, 05:26:29 AM by vox_mundi »
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Sam

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1184 on: February 22, 2020, 07:07:19 AM »
https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia?from=timeline&isappinstalled=0

截至 2020-02-21 20:49 全国数据统计
数据说明

53,305 现存确诊  -2,170 较昨日
  5,365 现存疑似  +1361 较昨日
11,477 现存重症.    -156 较昨日
76,394 累计确诊    +401 较昨日
  2,348 累计死亡   +109 较昨日
20,741 累计治愈 +2,462 较昨日

As of 2020-02-21 20:49 National Statistics
the data shows

53,305 Existing diagnoses    -2,170 since yesterday
  5,365 Existing suspected.   +1361 since yesterday
11,477 Existing severe illness  -156 since yesterday
76,394 Cumulative diagnoses +401 since yesterday
  2,348 Cumulative deaths.    +109 since yesterday
20,741 Cumulative cure      +2,462 since yesterday

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Johns Hopkins
77,661 Confirmed
  2,360 Deaths
20,976 Recovered

https://nextstrain.org/ncov?dmax=2020-02-12&l=unrooted&m=div
Next Strain
108 genomes sequenced

The usual caveats apply.

Sam

etienne

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1185 on: February 22, 2020, 08:26:28 AM »

-----------------------------



-----------------------------
I don't know who prepared this map, but it looks like propaganda. If US and UK  are best prepated, it means that the author likes a specific way of working. I can't believe that Thailand is better prepared than Italy or Belgium.

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1186 on: February 22, 2020, 08:30:55 AM »
Coronavirus: Asymptomatic Wuhan Woman Shows Why Outbreak 'Will Be Hard To Stop'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/22/coronavirus-asymptomatic-wuhan-woman-shows-why-outbreak-will-be-hard-to-stop

Case study of 20-year-old who infected relatives despite not showing signs of illness – and testing negative – stokes global pandemic fears

The case study, published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, offered clues about how the coronavirus is spreading, and suggested that it might be difficult to stop.

According to the study by Dr Meiyun Wang of the People’s Hospital of Zhengzhou University and colleagues, the woman travelled 400 miles (650km) from Wuhan to Anyang in Henan province on 10 January and visited several relatives. When they started getting sick, doctors isolated the woman and tested her for coronavirus. Initially, the young woman tested negative for the virus, but a follow-up test was positive.

All five of her relatives developed Covid-19 pneumonia, but as of 11 February, the young woman still had not developed any symptoms, her chest CT remained normal and she had no fever, stomach or respiratory symptoms, such as cough or sore throat.

Scientists in the study said if the findings are replicated, “the prevention of Covid-19 infection could prove challenging”.

... “Scientists have been asking if you can have this infection and not be ill? The answer is apparently, yes”

Presumed Asymptomatic Carrier Transmission of COVID-19
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762028
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1187 on: February 22, 2020, 09:14:24 AM »
Quote from: etienne
... I can't believe that Thailand is better prepared than Italy or Belgium.

Apparently it is.

Global Average Score = 40.2

Thailand Index Score = 73.2
6/195
Belgium Index Score= 61.0
19/195
Italy Index Score = 56.2
31/195

The GHS Index relies entirely on open-source information: data that a country has published on its own or has reported to or been reported by an international entity.

The 140 GHS Index questions are organized across six categories:

  • - Prevention: Prevention of the emergence or release of pathogens
  • - Detection and Reporting: Early detection and reporting for epidemics of potential international concern
  • - Rapid Response: Rapid response to and mitigation of the spread of an epidemic
  • - Health System: Sufficient and robust health system to treat the sick and protect health workers
  • - Compliance with International Norms
  • - Commitments to improving national capacity, financing plans to address gaps, and adhering to global norms
  • - Risk Environment: Overall risk environment and country vulnerability to biological threats

Among its 140 questions, the GHS Index prioritizes not only countries’ capacities, but also the existence of functional, tested, proven capabilities for stopping outbreaks at the source. Several questions in the GHS Index are designed to determine not only whether a capacity exists, but also whether that capacity is regularly—for example, annually—tested and shown to be functional in exercises or real-world events.

The report is here:

2019 Global Health Security Index
https://www.ghsindex.org/

The Global Health Security (GHS) Index is the first comprehensive assessment and benchmarking of health security and related capabilities across the 195 countries that make up the States Parties to the International Health Regulations (IHR [2005]). The GHS Index is a project of the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) and the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security (JHU) and was developed with The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). These organizations believe that, over time, the GHS Index will spur measurable changes in national health security and improve international capability to address one of the world’s most omnipresent risks: infectious disease outbreaks that can lead to international epidemics and pandemics.

Conclusion:

  • National health security is fundamentally weak around the world. No country is fully prepared for epidemics or pandemics, and every country has important gaps to address.
  • Countries are not prepared for a globally catastrophic biological event.
  • There is little evidence that most countries have tested important health security capacities or shown that they would be functional in a crisis.
  • Most countries have not allocated funding from national budgets to fill identified preparedness gaps.
  • More than half of countries face major political and security risks that could undermine national capability to counter biological threats.
  • Most countries lack foundational health systems capacities vital for epidemic and pandemic response
  • Coordination and training are inadequate among veterinary, wildlife, and public health professionals and policymakers
  • improving country compliance with international health and security norms is essential.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1188 on: February 22, 2020, 10:20:11 AM »
South Korea Confirms Another 87 Cases
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/22/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-covid-19.html

South Korean health officials confirmed another 87 cases, bringing the country’s total to 433.

The Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said 62 of the 87 new cases stem from the Shincheonji Church of Jesus in the southeastern city of Daegu. It also said three of the 87 new cases stemmed from another large cluster tied to the Cheongdo Daenam Hospital.

... Nearly half of South Korea’s confirmed cases stem from the Shincheonji Church of Jesus in the southeastern city of Daegu. KCDC said the timing of symptom development “suggests the possibility of a limited but continuous transmission through Sunday services or gatherings every week.”

The 108 cases stemming from the Cheongdo Daenam Hospital cluster are primarily from the psychiatric ward, KCDC said. The agency also said South Korea’s second death was a woman who was a long-term patient at the hospital.

-----------------------------

South Korea Confirms 4 Soldiers Infected With COVID-19
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/22/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-covid-19.html

Four South Korean soldiers have been infected with the new coronavirus, a military official told NBC News.

The official said the military has suspended outdoor training and will instead conduct training indoors until further notice. He also told NBC that all holiday breaks and visitors have been suspended for soldiers in an effort to limit their contacts outside military facilities.

-----------------------------

7 River Cruise Ships to House Medical Workers in Wuhan
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/22/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-covid-19.html

Chinese state media reported that seven ships brought into the city of Wuhan in Hubei province will be converted into temporary accommodations for medical staff in the city.

Thousands of medical workers from across the country have been brought into Hubei to help the province contain the outbreak.

Xinhua News reported that the ships normally operate as river cruises in the Three Gorges, a popular and scenic tourist area along the Yangtze River. The state news agency said, however, that the cruise ship business in the Three Gorges had been closed due to the outbreak.



------------------------------

‘Worse Than An Airplane’: Being Confined to a Cruise Ship Fuelled the Coronavirus Spread
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/health-environment/article/3051844/worse-aeroplane-how-being-confined-cruise-ship-fuelled

With thousands of people confined to a space with limited airflow, cruise ships are an ‘enabling environment’ for the spread of infectious diseases

The air circulation on a cruise ship is worse than on a plane, where the risk of transmission falls the farther you sit from an infected person

... “A cruise ship is an almost ideal environment to enhance the transmission of a virus, whether norovirus, coronavirus, or flu, from person to person,” said William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University.

“We know that if you want to enhance the transmission of a virus like this coronavirus, or the influenza virus, put them inside a cruise ship where the air exchanges are compromised, where there are people basically sharing the air of others with themselves.”

“In Japan, [the authorities] thought the quarantine on board would be fine and they were caught by surprise. They’ve realised that a cruise ship is pretty much the worst environment to be stuck in.”

------------------------------

New Cluster Emerges in Wuhan Nursing Home
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/22/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html

A dozen coronavirus cases have been confirmed at a single nursing home in Wuhan, China, the city at the center of the epidemic. Public health experts have said that nursing homes could be among the most dangerous sites for transmission of the virus.

The elderly have been particularly vulnerable to the coronavirus, with many of the reported deaths occurring among people 60 and older. And nursing homes often house their residents in close quarters, which facilitates the rapid spread of viruses.

The nursing home, the Wuhan Social Welfare Institute, said 11 elderly residents and an employee had been confirmed to have the virus, according to a notice from the municipal civil affairs bureau in Wuhan, where the coronavirus emerged. One of the residents has died, the notice said.

The nursing home also reported 19 suspected infections, involving 12 employees and seven residents.

-------------------------------

Volunteer Training for Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics Postponed
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/22/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-covid-19.html

Organizers for the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics have postponed volunteer training that was scheduled to begin Saturday, citing efforts to limit the spread of the new coronavirus COVID-19. In an online statement, organizers said the training sessions will be postponed until May or later. (... like maybe 2024?)

-------------------------------

French Companies are Warned Against ‘Overdependence’ on China.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/22/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html

The French government said Friday it would urge companies to review their “overdependence” on China for raw materials and parts as the coronavirus outbreak exposes weaknesses among French manufacturers that have outsourced their supply chains there.

... Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire singled out automakers, which have had trouble getting parts like brake pedals, and the pharmaceutical industry, which gets 80 percent of the raw materials for some drugs from China and Asia.

“The epidemic shows that supply bottlenecks create problems in certain strategic industries,”
Mr. Le Maire said after meeting with French business leaders about the economic fallout of the epidemic.

France is also studying whether to allow companies to declare the coronavirus a “force majeur,” which relieves firms from liabilities for breach of contract because of circumstances beyond their control.
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Alexander555

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1189 on: February 22, 2020, 10:21:20 AM »
Thailand has malaria, dengue........... So they always have some kind of inflow in their hospitals. And in other places many infections are close to wiped out or never had other kinds . So they don't have that kind of problems so much. That could become a surprise.

SteveMDFP

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1190 on: February 22, 2020, 11:21:03 AM »
Interested in what clinical trials are being set up to study the coronavirus?
I was pleasantly surprised to find that the trials in China are being included in the US government database of clinical trials, ClinicalTrials.gov:

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=coronavirus

Over the past decade or two, China has become a powerhouse in the realm of running clinical research trials.  They have an approach that can include ordering hospitals and doctors to participate, and expedited approval of protocols.

It's encouraging that they're running these trials and registering them on an international database.  It's interesting to see what treatments they consider sufficiently promising to run trials.

Alexander555

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vox_mundi

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1192 on: February 22, 2020, 11:43:27 AM »
Iran Confirms Another Death, 10 More Cases (5 p.m. HK)
https://www.bloombergquint.com/china/new-cases-outside-china-spark-concern-on-pandemic-virus-update

Iran reported a fifth death from the coronavirus, the most outside China, according to state television. The country also confirmed an additional 10 cases, bringing the total to 28.

Of the new cases, eight are in Qom, the epicenter of coronavirus in Iran, and two in Tehran, according to Kianoush Jahanpour, the spokesperson for the health ministry who was speaking on state television.

----------------------------

CDC Says Westerdam Passenger Not Infected: USA Today (4:50 p.m. HK)

 All passengers on the Westerdam cruise ship, which was turned away from five ports before docking in Cambodia, are negative for the coronavirus, USA Today reported. That includes a 83-year-old American woman who initially tested positive in Malaysia. The hospitalized woman “may have had a respiratory illness, but if she did, it was not COVID-19,” CDC spokesperson Richard Quartarone told the newspaper.

-----------------------------

Infections Spread in South Korea Hospital Psychiatric Ward (2:02 p.m. HK)

A hospital near Daegu in Cheongdo County confirmed 111 cases, with 109 of those infected found to be in the psychiatric ward, either as patients or staff, according to Jung Eun-kyeong, director of South Korea’s Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Nine hospital employees are infected, she said.

https://www.osac.gov/Content/Report/714ddc7e-6ff6-48bc-88d6-18060f7e1dc7
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late

Tom_Mazanec

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1193 on: February 22, 2020, 12:13:35 PM »
Can we expect a vaccine for this soon?
After nearly four decades we don’t have an HIV vaccine.
SHARKS (CROSSED OUT) MONGEESE (SIC) WITH FRICKIN LASER BEAMS ATTACHED TO THEIR HEADS

be cause

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1194 on: February 22, 2020, 12:32:06 PM »
lets get everyone indoors .. even army training .. when will it become obvious that outdoors is the safe place to be ? b.c.

 banner seen earlier .. ''go outside and we'll break your feet . Argue , and we'll break your teeth''
« Last Edit: February 22, 2020, 12:45:41 PM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1195 on: February 22, 2020, 01:32:52 PM »
Can we expect a vaccine for this soon?
After nearly four decades we don’t have an HIV vaccine.

Were it a 'man made' thingy then we would have a vaccine already but , to hide their tracks, it would be delayed from being deployment for the general public for a 'reasonable' amount of time to 'prove' authenticity I reckon?

World leaders, of course, would all be inoculated so let's see how many of them succumb to Covid-19 eh?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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wili

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1196 on: February 22, 2020, 01:57:07 PM »
GW, multiple experts have examined the structure of this thing and determined that it is not man-made.

If you have expert testimony to the contrary, please present it. Otherwise, please stop spreading unfounded conspiracy theories on the forum.

Thanks
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

wili

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1197 on: February 22, 2020, 02:03:51 PM »
Vox's article Infections Spread in South Korea Hospital Psychiatric Ward helps point out again just how many human 'petri dishes' are out there ready to be new clusters of cases and deaths--cruise ships, prisons, cults, now psych wards. I expect we will see it run through some dorms on college campuses soon.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

pietkuip

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1198 on: February 22, 2020, 02:21:38 PM »
I expect we will see it run through some dorms on college campuses soon.

Yes, the virus could spread very well in dorms. And students travel quite a bit.

Fortunately, this virus does not seem to target young people (unlike the "Spanish" flu).

I expect that my university may close down before the summer.

Gray-Wolf

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Re: Chinese coronavirus
« Reply #1199 on: February 22, 2020, 02:21:53 PM »
GW, multiple experts have examined the structure of this thing and determined that it is not man-made.

If you have expert testimony to the contrary, please present it. Otherwise, please stop spreading unfounded conspiracy theories on the forum.

Thanks

Wili , sorry for the offence but it was posted to provide just the opposite of your conclusion? I'm sorry the levity escaped you?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS