COVID-19

[Gray-Wolf]

I expect we will see it run through some dorms on college campuses soon.

Yes, the virus could spread very well in dorms. And students travel quite a bit.

Fortunately, this virus does not seem to target young people (unlike the "Spanish" flu).

I expect that my university may close down before the summer.

As we saw upthread the original incarnation of H1N1 in 1918 was 'mild for most' and it was the mutation over summer that brought in the nastier version we know so well?

The more hosts the virus has the more chance it has of mutation/recombination into a fouler form.

[vox_mundi]

Can we expect a vaccine for this soon?
After nearly four decades we don’t have an HIV vaccine.

A vaccine is a one-shot deal that is only effective for a country if everyone gets it. So governments will insist that the pharmaceutical companies make enough for everyone and provide it for pennies a shot.

Now a pill taken every 4 hours prophylacticly or for symptomatic relief - Ah, now there's the sweet spot. $5-$10/pill - cha-ching!!

The reality is vaccines take a while to develop and test for efficacy and safety. Then, once you have one that works effectively, you have to gear up production to make a few billion doses. And then you have to distribute and administer it. (and convince people to get it) This all takes time. And maybe the virus mutates during that interval, so you have to start over.

Don't expect a vaccine till maybe this time next year, if we're lucky.

....

p.s. Thanks for the levity GW. Actually, both you and wili are right, in your own ways. 

p.p.s Schools, colleges and dorms are the first things that get shut down during a epidemic - and the last things to get re-opened; people go to them voluntarily. Prisons and Psych wards - not so much

[etienne]

... I can't believe that Thailand is better prepared than Italy or Belgium.

Apparently it is.

Global Average Score = 40.2

Thailand Index Score = 73.2
6/195
Belgium Index Score= 61.0
19/195
Italy Index Score = 56.2
31/195

The GHS Index relies entirely on open-source information: data that a country has published on its own or has reported to or been reported by an international entity.

Sorry, but I don't believe that open source data can provide all the info needed for such an assessment.

[Sigmetnow]

Bloomberg on Twitter: "Chinese companies say they can’t afford to pay workers right now”
https://mobile.twitter.com/business/status/1231034807683076096
60-second video at the link.

Chinese Companies Say They Can’t Afford to Pay Workers Now

(Bloomberg) -- A growing number of China’s private companies have cut wages, delayed paychecks or stopped paying staff completely, saying that the economic toll of the coronavirus has left them unable to cover their labor costs.

To slow the spread of the virus that’s claimed more than 2,000 lives, Chinese authorities and big employers have encouraged people to stay home. Shopping malls and restaurants are empty; amusement parks and theaters are closed; non-essential travel is all but forbidden.

What’s good for containment has been lousy for business. With classes canceled at a coding-and-robotics school in Hangzhou, employees will lose 30% to 50% of their wages. The Lionsgate Entertainment World theme park in Zhuhai is closed, and workers have been told to use up their paid vacation time and get ready for unpaid leave.

“A week of unpaid leave is very painful,” said Jason Lam, 32, who was furloughed from his job as a chef in a high-end restaurant in Hong Kong’s Tsim Sha Tsui neighborhood. “I don’t have enough income to cover my spending this month.”

Across China, companies are telling workers that there’s no money for them -- or that they shouldn’t have to pay full salaries to quarantined employees who don’t come to work. It’s too soon to say how many people have lost wages as a result of the outbreak, but in a survey of more than 9,500 workers by Chinese recruitment website Zhaopin, more than one-third said they were aware it was a possibility. ...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-companies-t-afford-pay-020241284.html

[vox_mundi]

... Sorry, but I don't believe that open source data can provide all the info needed for such an assessment

But secret assessments that no one can see and verify; can?

The report link has a downloadable excel spreadsheet of questions & answers for the 140 questions for each of the 195 countries. Apples to Apples.
https://www.ghsindex.org/report-model/

Which specific piece of data do you have a question with?

All things considered, whether your 6/195 or 19/195, you're still in the top 10%.  No one got a perfect score.

Belief implies opinion, and opinion is not always a fact, but you have a right to your opinion.

----------------------------

... and about those Thai hospitals ...

Thailand now has 66 JCI-accredited hospitals, more than any other Southeast Asian country and ranked the top fourth in the world after Saudi Arabia, China and the UAE
https://www.thailand-business-news.com/amp/tourism/72887-thailand-leads-southeast-asian-countries-with-66-jci-accredited-hospitals.html

JCI is the industry standard in global healthcare, where facilities are benchmarked against US standards and practices

Number of JCI accredited hospitals in Belgium = 18
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00769-016-1232-x

[Alexander555]

Number of infected people in Italy up to 51. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/infections-surge-among-south-korean-060526123.html

[vox_mundi]

Covid-19: Pharmaceutical Companies and Agencies That Partnered for Coronavirus Vaccine Development
https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/analysis/covid-19-pharmaceutical-company-partnerships-for-coronavirus-vaccines-development/

Pharmaceutical Technology lists the companies and government agencies that have partnered to develop coronavirus treatments: ...

-------------------------

DoD's MHS Prepared to Support Interagency Coronavirus Response
https://www.health.mil/News/Articles/2020/02/06/MHS-protects-DoD-personnel-and-families-from-coronavirus-in-the-US-and-abroad

U.S. Army Col. (Dr.) Jennifer Kishimori, director, Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Medical Countermeasures Policy, Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Health Affairs, recently briefed a U.S. Government interagency panel and health industry stakeholders on Military Health System (MHS) actions and responsibilities.

... “DoD is in support of the interagency for preparedness and response efforts against the novel coronavirus outbreak,” Kishimori said. “This is a new virus. Information is emerging and changing daily. Our Military Health System, which comprises the medical assets within the DoD, works to keep pace with CDC and interagency guidance in this fluid situation.”

Kishimori outlined MHS' unique capabilities to monitor and respond to 2019-nCoV for both surveillance and research and development:

• - The Center for Laboratory Medicine Services and the Executive Secretariat, DoD Laboratory Network synchronizes laboratory capability across the MHS and works with interagency partners to ensure supported network laboratories have the necessary detection and characterization capabilities in place to support 2019-nCoV-related activities across the globe.
• - Defense Health Agency (DHA) Armed Forces Health Surveillance Division and Global Emerging Infections Surveillance monitor daily the status of the outbreak
• - Naval Medical Research Unit-2 in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, continues increased surveillance for the coronavirus at the China border.
• - The Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences in Thailand is also in a forward position to identify and characterize virus isolates.

The MHS also has a robust research capability with specific expertise in coronaviruses. Kishimori explained that the DoD has scientists and clinicians with experience in rapidly executing pre-clinical studies and virus vaccine clinical trials with infectious disease clinicians through DoD laboratories.

------------------------------

Pandemic Preparedness Resources
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/pandemic-preparedness-resources.html

While the content at the links provided below was developed to prepare for, or respond to, an influenza (“flu”) pandemic, the newly emerged coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory disease that seems to be spreading much like flu. Guidance developed for influenza pandemic preparedness would be appropriate in the event the current COVID-19 outbreak triggers a pandemic.

[etienne]

... Sorry, but I don't believe that open source data can provide all the info needed for such an assessment

But secret assessments that no one can see and verify; can?

The report link has a downloadable excel spreadsheet of questions & answers for the 140 questions for each of the 195 countries. Apples to Apples.
https://www.ghsindex.org/report-model/

Which specific piece of data do you have a question with?

All things considered, whether your 6/195 or 19/195, you're still in the top 10%.  No one got a perfect score.

Belief implies opinion, and opinion is not always a fact, but you have a right to your opinion.

Preparedness is not only about numbers, but also about culture. Do people store food for emergencies, what about solidarity, what about universal health coverage?
Anyways, it looks like Italy with a lower ranking does a better job in finding infected people.

[Shared Humanity]

"... Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch estimates that 40 to 70 percent of the human population could potentially be infected by the virus if it becomes pandemic.[/b] Not all of those people would get sick, he noted. The estimated death rate from covid-19 — roughly two out of 100 confirmed infections — may also drop over time as researchers get a better understanding of how widely the virus has spread.

The novel coronavirus may be particularly suited for stealth community transmission since its symptoms can be indistinguishable from those of a cold or flu, and testing capabilities are still being ramped up.

This statement supports my belief that the virus will not be contained and any hope of doing so is long past. It also suggests that a global pandemic will not be the end of humanity. With a 2% fatality rate, possibly lower, we are seeing the equivalent of the Spanish Flu. This is going to be bad but persons here suggesting a 10% or 20% fatality rate are not paying attention to the experts.

[vox_mundi]

Some Cruise Ship Passengers Not Tested (6:05 a.m. NY)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/more-deaths-reported-in-iran-italy-south-korea-virus-update/ar-BB10fQ0L

Japan’s heath minister, Katsunobu Kato, told a press conference 23 passengers who disembarked from Diamond Princess cruise ship in Yokohama had not been tested for the coronavirus during the quarantine period.

"We deeply regret that our operational mistake caused the situation,” Katō said

-----------------------------

https://www.reuters.com/article/china-health-japan/update-1-japans-new-virus-cases-rise-again-as-doubts-about-prevention-grow-idUSL3N2AM03I

TOKYO, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Japanese government officials confirmed 14 new cases of the coronavirus on Saturday as public health authorities struggle to contain a global epidemic.

Among the cases was a junior high school teacher in Chiba prefecture just east of Tokyo, who went to work even though she had symptoms, raising fears the virus could spread among her students and co-workers.

In the northern prefecture of Hokkaido, a boy less than 10 years old was added to the list. On Friday, two brothers in an elementary school in Hokkaido were confirmed infected.

-----------------------------

IMF Lowers Global Growth Forecast, Warns of ‘More Dire Scenarios’
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/22/coronavirus-live-updates-imf-lowers-global-growth-forecast.html

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Saturday that the virus will likely cut off 0.1% from global growth, and drag down growth for China’s economy to 5.6%, which is 0.4% lower from its January outlook.

“But we are also looking at more dire scenarios where the spread of the virus continues for longer and more globally, and the growth consequences are more protracted,” said International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva at the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting.

------------------------------

UBS Chairman Says Effects Underestimated (6:09 a.m. NY)
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/more-deaths-reported-in-iran-italy-south-korea-virus-update/ar-BB10fQ0L

UBS Group AG Chairman Axel Weber said markets are underpricing the risk that the coronavirus poses to the global economy.

It will go beyond the first quarter, Weber said in a Bloomberg TV interview during the G-20 Summit in Riyadh.

By his estimates, global growth will experience a massive drop from 3.5% to 0.5% and China will post a negative growth rate in the first quarter. That’s not happened since at least 1990, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

------------------------------

China Transportation Sector to Resume Operations by Late February or Early March (... or April, or May, or ...)

China’s transportation sector is expected to start up operations again in late February or early March, a Ministry of Transport official told reporters on Saturday. Delivery service companies China Post, SF Express and jd.com have all resumed operations.

The services are in high demand during the outbreak as people would prefer to order food and supplies online or have them delivered.

[Shared Humanity]

Can we expect a vaccine for this soon?
After nearly four decades we don’t have an HIV vaccine.

Were it a 'man made' thingy then we would have a vaccine already but , to hide their tracks, it would be delayed from being deployment for the general public for a 'reasonable' amount of time to 'prove' authenticity I reckon?

World leaders, of course, would all be inoculated so let's see how many of them succumb to Covid-19 eh?

I agree with another here. This comment is irresponsible and I expect better of this site.

[Shared Humanity]

Vox's article Infections Spread in South Korea Hospital Psychiatric Ward helps point out again just how many human 'petri dishes' are out there ready to be new clusters of cases and deaths--cruise ships, prisons, cults, now psych wards. I expect we will see it run through some dorms on college campuses soon.

Yes. Every epidemiologist quoted here talks about local community transition as a necessary condition for a global pandemic. It does make sense that anywhere persons cohabitate or congregate for long periods of time in large numbers is the perfect environment for such transmission.

[Tom_Mazanec]

Shared Humanity:
The people projecting 10-20% death rates, I believe, are figuring hospital care will be inundated by cases and the 10-20% who need such care will not get it.
They may be right or they may be wrong.

[Shared Humanity]

I expect we will see it run through some dorms on college campuses soon.

Yes, the virus could spread very well in dorms. And students travel quite a bit.

Fortunately, this virus does not seem to target young people (unlike the "Spanish" flu).

I expect that my university may close down before the summer.

It is not that the virus does not target young people. It is that young people are not prone to develop serious symptoms. There are numerous reports of mild symptoms and asymptomatic cases. A person could not realize they are infected and be spreading the virus. This is not simply a possibility. It is happening now and likely in large numbers.

[Gray-Wolf]

"... Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch estimates that 40 to 70 percent of the human population could potentially be infected by the virus if it becomes pandemic.[/b] Not all of those people would get sick, he noted. The estimated death rate from covid-19 — roughly two out of 100 confirmed infections — may also drop over time as researchers get a better understanding of how widely the virus has spread.

The novel coronavirus may be particularly suited for stealth community transmission since its symptoms can be indistinguishable from those of a cold or flu, and testing capabilities are still being ramped up.

This statement supports my belief that the virus will not be contained and any hope of doing so is long past. It also suggests that a global pandemic will not be the end of humanity. With a 2% fatality rate, possibly lower, we are seeing the equivalent of the Spanish Flu. This is going to be bad but persons here suggesting a 10% or 20% fatality rate are not paying attention to the experts.

Whilst agreeing with your post I think we should also be mindful that the virus may mutate into something either more benign or, in the worse case scenario, a lot worse.

Better to keep an eye on how things develop eh?

[Shared Humanity]

Bloomberg on Twitter: "Chinese companies say they can’t afford to pay workers right now”
https://mobile.twitter.com/business/status/1231034807683076096
60-second video at the link.

Chinese Companies Say They Can’t Afford to Pay Workers Now

(Bloomberg) -- A growing number of China’s private companies have cut wages, delayed paychecks or stopped paying staff completely, saying that the economic toll of the coronavirus has left them unable to cover their labor costs.

And before someone attributes this to some kind of flaw present in China business practices, this is what we should expect everywhere the virus hits hard. With a 35 year career in business, it is about cash flow...stop shipping and selling product and you very quickly cannot meet obligations to pay vendors and employees.

We have been hearing more and more reports on the possibility of a force majeure event being declared. France just raised the possibility of declaring such an event. Declaring this frees companies from meeting their contractual obligations. As soon as one country declares this, expect it to spread across the planet. Then businesses everywhere will struggle to pay employees.

[Shared Humanity]

Shared Humanity:
The people projecting 10-20% death rates, I believe, are figuring hospital care will be inundated by cases and the 10-20% who need such care will not get it.
They may be right or they may be wrong.

You'll need to forgive me for placing more faith in the world's leading epidemiologists than some random commenter on this site but, then, that is just me.

[GoodeWeather]

"... Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch estimates that 40 to 70 percent of the human population could potentially be infected by the virus if it becomes pandemic.[/b] Not all of those people would get sick, he noted. The estimated death rate from covid-19 — roughly two out of 100 confirmed infections — may also drop over time as researchers get a better understanding of how widely the virus has spread.

The novel coronavirus may be particularly suited for stealth community transmission since its symptoms can be indistinguishable from those of a cold or flu, and testing capabilities are still being ramped up.

This statement supports my belief that the virus will not be contained and any hope of doing so is long past. It also suggests that a global pandemic will not be the end of humanity. With a 2% fatality rate, possibly lower, we are seeing the equivalent of the Spanish Flu. This is going to be bad but persons here suggesting a 10% or 20% fatality rate are not paying attention to the experts.

Whilst agreeing with your post I think we should also be mindful that the virus may mutate into something either more benign or, in the worse case scenario, a lot worse.

Better to keep an eye on how things develop eh?

Thank you for stating this, because in one of your previous posts you made it seem as if more carriers can only result in a more deadly mutation.

Things can go either way and still a lot of unknowns about this virus.  One thing i think most can agree on, at this point, is that it is highly contagious. 

[pietkuip]

Shared Humanity:
The people projecting 10-20% death rates, I believe, are figuring hospital care will be inundated by cases and the 10-20% who need such care will not get it.
They may be right or they may be wrong.

You'll need to forgive me for placing more faith in the world's leading epidemiologists than some random commenter on this site but, then, that is just me.

I would like to see numbers of total deaths from Wuhan etc.
This kind of weekly data, that is reported in the Netherlands https://www.rivm.nl/monitoring-sterftecijfers-nederland

That little peak in July is from last summer's heat wave.

The big peak is from January till March of 2018, influenza, about 9000 extra deaths.
That is 0.05 % of the population.

[Shared Humanity]

Shared Humanity:
The people projecting 10-20% death rates, I believe, are figuring hospital care will be inundated by cases and the 10-20% who need such care will not get it.
They may be right or they may be wrong.

You'll need to forgive me for placing more faith in the world's leading epidemiologists than some random commenter on this site but, then, that is just me.

I would like to see numbers of total deaths from Wuhan etc.

And I'd like to have a million dollars. There is no accounting for tastes.

[Gray-Wolf]

Guy's , can we keep it civil please?

If we listen to W.H.O. we are lumbering toward this being declared Pandemic and the impacts on the globe will be immense.

We have set ourselves up for a fall by the way the world now operates and, should we see this go Pandemic, 'a fall' is what (IMHO) we are bound for?

Keep Well and 'do not die of ignorance' (as the old HIV ad's here in the UK used to say!)

[wili]

The recent discovery prompts me to wonder what the 'sweet spot' is for a virus to cause maximum total deaths.

If it kills too many of its hosts too early, it can't effectively spread, so may cause many deaths initially, but fairly quickly 'burns itself out' so to speak.

If it is like the cold or the flu, it spread more widely, but kills no or a relatively small percentage of those it infects (though in the case of the flu, that still can add up to hundreds of thousands per year, iirc).

So is around 2% death rate actually in the range of where a virus can do the most ultimate damage and create the most carnage? Or is it higher or lower? (Os should this go in the 'stupid questions' thread?)

Or maybe if it's contagious enough (and conditions are horrific enough), the death rate can still be very high and still spread fast enough to cause mass deaths. The Spanish Flu had a death rate of about %20 percent yet managed to infect over a quarter of all people on the earth at the time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

So contagion rate clearly has to be part of whatever equation can yield the highest number of total deaths.

[blumenkraft]

Incubation time is a huge variable to consider here i think, Wili.

[Gray-Wolf]

Incubation time is a huge variable to consider here i think, Wili.

Agreed!

Its purpose is to replicate and spread.

If it can be growing .unnoticed in a host for anything from 5 days up to a whopping alleged 42 days (one chinese woman after a visit to Wuhan and before the virus was supposed to be widespread in other Chinese provinces?) then it has plenty of opportunity to reproduce and spread?

If the 'host' then dies after completing this directive so what?

[crandles]

Incubation time is a huge variable to consider here i think, Wili.

and whether contagious before symptoms show.

[blumenkraft]

Right, Crandles!

[harpy]

What's the maximum R0 of this virus from a peer-reviewed published study?

[Hefaistos]

Chinese researchers find that the virus existed much earlier than previously reported, and probably not originates in Wuhan.

"In this study, we used 93 complete genomes of SARS-CoV-2 from the GISAID EpiFluTM database to decode the evolution and human-to-human transmissions of SARS-CoV-2
...
Population size of SARS-CoV-2 were estimated to have a recent expansion on 6 January 2020, and an early expansion on 8 December 2019.
Interpretation. Genomic variations of SARS-CoV-2 are still low in comparisons with published genomes of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV. Phyloepidemiologic analyses indicated the SARS-CoV-2 source at the Hua Nan market should be imported from other places. The crowded market boosted SARS-CoV-2 rapid circulations in the market and spread it to the whole city in early December 2019."

http://www.chinaxiv.org/abs/202002.00033

[Tom_Mazanec]

It was less than two months ago:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,681.msg242617.html#msg242617
I don't even remember reading this post. It may have been the most important post of 2019.

[Bruce Steele]

Harpy, 2.5-2.7 according to this Lancet paper
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landig/article/PIIS2589-7500(20)30026-1/fulltext

It references another paper I couldn’t find.

[wili]

Good point about incubation period...especially how long it can spread before symptoms arise.

Coming full circle here...the virus could mutate in ways that could alter any of these variables.

Those mutations may move it closer to or further from the 'sweet spot', whatever exactly that is.

But generally, it will be be prioritizing those strains that allow it to 'live long and prosper.'

[Rodius]

I revisited https://healthmap.org today to see what that was telling us.

I noticed that in Africa, basically, every country has a strong link with is having activity as well.

Given the games being played by the various Govts (China, Iran during elections hiding information and an unwillingness for the US to take more action) I suspect tools like Healthmap may be able to bring a new dataset to the table.

To me, this virus is basically global now and there is no stopping it now. Preparation is the order of the day.
But, that is just an opinion.

[Rodius]

I almost forgot to share this anecdotal information.

My wife works in a warehouse as an administrator for a large Australian retail company. The warehouse deals with significant numbers of containers per day.

They bring in a lot of goods from China.

Last week the flow of containers has dropped a lot. There had been a slow decrease the previous week as well but last week the warehouse was sending home half (literally) the workers because there isnt enough work to do.

She is also dealing with shops (large format stores) who are beginning to panic about the increasingly low level of goods on the floor.

The flow of goods is coming to a crashing halt for at least one company here, it is a fair assumption that comparative companies are having the same issues.

From what I am seeing, the economies of the world are being very quiet about this issue and talking things up to maintain the belief that everything is okay.
Personally, I am not buying it, when a very large warehouse of a large company is running out of stock with next to no containers coming in for one week and the same will happen for the foreseeable future, that is very bad news.

I wish I knew more about how the supermarket supply chains worked as that is more important.

[Tor Bejnar]

I revisited https://healthmap.org today to see what that was telling us.
...

A link from that website:
Texas-based company claims to have completed coronavirus vaccine

A genetic engineering company based in Houston claims to have finished developing a vaccine for the deadly coronavirus.

The Houston Business Journal reports scientists at Greffex Inc. completed a vaccine this week, according to the company’s president and CEO John Price.

The report says the vaccine will move to animal testing with the Food and Drug Administration.

The clock is ticking ...

[KiwiGriff]

This statement supports my belief that the virus will not be contained and any hope of doing so is long past. It also suggests that a global pandemic will not be the end of humanity. With a 2% fatality rate, possibly lower, we are seeing the equivalent of the Spanish Flu. This is going to be bad but persons here suggesting a 10% or 20% fatality rate are not paying attention to the experts.

Shared humanity I would like to take the opportunity to apologize unreservedly to you.
I misinterpreted one of your earlier comments as to the severity of this virus and attacked your comment needlessly .
I would suggest a mortally rate of 2.5 plus 2.5 minus 1 .
I do this in public rather than by PM as I believe we must protect our integrity and acknowledge error honestly to maintain respect of our  peers  on this forum .
Griff.

[Tom_Mazanec]

KiwiGrif:
So 4% mortality? In a world of seven and a half billion people, that’s 300,000,000 deaths.

[Sam]

This statement supports my belief that the virus will not be contained and any hope of doing so is long past. It also suggests that a global pandemic will not be the end of humanity. With a 2% fatality rate, possibly lower, we are seeing the equivalent of the Spanish Flu. This is going to be bad but persons here suggesting a 10% or 20% fatality rate are not paying attention to the experts.

Shared humanity I would like to take the opportunity to apologize unreservedly to you.
I misinterpreted one of your earlier comments as to the severity of this virus and attacked your comment needlessly .
I would suggest a mortally rate of 2.5 plus 2.5 minus 1 .
I do this in public rather than by PM as I believe we must protect our integrity and acknowledge error honestly to maintain respect of our  peers  on this forum .
Griff.

Actually people here predicting 6-10% CFR based on Hospital admissions are paying close attention to the actual data, and have shown our calculations in detail with the caveats and limitations, and cited sources. If the experts aren’t, then I leave it to you to conclude ...

By the way - the name of the logical fallacy you are invoking is called “Appeal to Authority”.

Sam

[Sam]

https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia?from=timeline&isappinstalled=0

截至 2020-02-22 19:45 全国数据统计
数据说明

51,648 现存确诊  -1,724 较昨日
  4,148 现存疑似   +882 较昨日
10,968 现存重症    -509 较昨日
77,041 累计确诊    +649 较昨日
  2,445 累计死亡     +97 较昨日
22,948 累计治愈 +2,276 较昨日

As of 2020-02-22 19:45 National Statistics
the data shows

51,648 Existing confirmed diagnosis -1,724 since yesterday
  4,148 Existing suspected                 +882 since yesterday
10,968 Existing severe illness             -509 since yesterday
77,041 Cumulative diagnoses            +649 since yesterday
  2,445 Cumulative deaths                  +97 since yesterday
22,948 Cumulative cure                 +2,276 since yesterday

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Johns Hopkins
78,766 Confirmed
  2,461 Deaths
23,133 Recovered

https://nextstrain.org/ncov
Next Strain
115 genomes sequenced
Phylogenetic tree still points to approximately 17 December 2019 as the most common ancestor, not earlier

Sam

[Bruce Steele]

Sam, i am having trouble with what are reported cases in the definition of CFR.
“The reported case fatality rate (CFR) is a measure of the severity of a disease and is defined as the proportion of reported cases of a specified disease or condition which are fatal within a specified time.”

So if children ,for example , don’t get recorded in reported cases because they don’t show symptoms
doesn’t it distort the numbers? 

Also in order to get accurate r0 it seems you need to know how many people catch and carry Covid-19 with minor symptoms but still contagious. The Diamond Princess and the Shincheonji church challenge an r0 on the low end.

Sorry if we have already gone through this already but when I quote a lancet paper with an r0 of 2.5-2.7 it seems dated by recent events.

[KiwiGriff]

6-10% CFR
1.5 to 5%
1 to 3 %
These are not inclusive of  10% to 20%.

I did not appeal to any authority besides my own limited ability to discern pattern though the haze we are all peering into .
I  think your comments are well worth considering.   I do not think we have reliable data about the total extent of infection coming from China.
The cases from the cruise liner should give us  reasonable evidence of the present mortality rate  over time though it will be confounded by the demographics of such a source. 

[Bruce Steele]

I found  “preparations” on another blog.  Reasonable advice IMO

https://virologydownunder.com/past-time-to-tell-the-public-it-will-probably-go-pandemic-and-we-should-all-prepare-now/

[El Cid]

latest data
dead to recovered ratio
Hubei Province 13,3%
Everything else (China and Rest of World): 1,5%
Only countries other than China: below 1 %

Serious outlier  is Iran: 6 dead. Considering the above  fatality ratios there must have been at least 300-400 infected in Iran 1-2 weeks ago. That number is likely above 1000 by now....

[wili]

Thanks for that link, Bruce.

Besides hygiene, getting ahead of the curve on meds and staples seems like a good idea.

Here are more experts saying we should expect this virus to continue to spread and should be making plans accordingly:

“The infectious-disease epidemiology community and policymakers have come to the conclusion that it’s very likely that this virus is going to continue spreading throughout the world over time,” said Michael Mina, assistant professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health.

 “Things have really shifted a little bit from trying to stop its spread in China to now saying, ‘What can we, as a global community, as individual nations, and even as individual hospitals, do to prepare for what seems more and more potentially inevitable that we will start seeing cases locally throughout the world?’”

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2020/02/health-officials-expect-coronavirus-to-spread-worldwide/

[Alexander555]

43 people infected in Iran, and 8 fatalities. Let's hope it's not a mutation.

[grixm]

43 people infected in Iran, and 8 fatalities. Let's hope it's not a mutation.

There are almost certainly far more people actually infected.


Also, Italy cases is spiking, now at 129: https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/02/23/news/coronavirus_italia-249329434/

[pileus]

Sam, i am having trouble with what are reported cases in the definition of CFR.
“The reported case fatality rate (CFR) is a measure of the severity of a disease and is defined as the proportion of reported cases of a specified disease or condition which are fatal within a specified time.”

So if children ,for example , don’t get recorded in reported cases because they don’t show symptoms
doesn’t it distort the numbers? 

Also in order to get accurate r0 it seems you need to know how many people catch and carry Covid-19 with minor symptoms but still contagious. The Diamond Princess and the Shincheonji church challenge an r0 on the low end.

Sorry if we have already gone through this already but when I quote a lancet paper with an r0 of 2.5-2.7 it seems dated by recent events.

The fatality rate for all that are infected is likely less than the oft-cited 2% figure, and probably under 1% at a country or eventual global level.  But that actual data point will never be validated. 

For the 70+ demographic and those with compromised immune systems, the fatality rate is likely higher based in the current progression and characteristics of the virus.

[Tom_Mazanec]

43 people infected in Iran, and 8 fatalities. Let's hope it's not a mutation.

Peak Prosperity on Saturday mentioned many of the cases in Italy are rated serious.
If this is not a country specific definition then it could be a mutation.
Remember, those serious cases need care that may be in short supply if hundreds or thousands of millions are infected.

[Alexander555]

43 people infected in Iran, and 8 fatalities. Let's hope it's not a mutation.

There are almost certainly far more people actually infected.


Also, Italy cases is spiking, now at 129: https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2020/02/23/news/coronavirus_italia-249329434/

That was my first thought, but the numbers seem to go up together.

[oren]

From the Italian article posted above, translated.

ROME - From hour to hour. Cases of positivity to the new coronavirus in Italy are increasing . The last infected is found in the Bergamo area. An emergency summit was immediately summoned to the Prefecture in Bergamo. The number of sick people under observation has therefore risen to 130 people in five regions: in Lombardy there are 90 cases, in Veneto 24, in Piedmont 6, in Emilia Romagna 9 and in Lazio 2. The latter are the Chinese couple who still located at Spallanzani. In detail, there are 54 people are hospitalized, 26 are in intensive care and 22 in home isolation. The count - it must be said - does not include the two victims - one in Lombardy and one in Veneto - and the researcher who was hospitalized in Spallanzani and is cured.

40% hospitalized, 20% in intensive care.
However, it's obvious to me that many light and/or asymptomatic cases have not been identified (yet?) which skews the statistics.  Same, probably much worse, in Iran.

[Archimid]

However, it's obvious to me that many light and/or asymptomatic cases have not been identified (yet?) which skews the statistics.  Same, probably much worse, in Iran.

Sam warned us about this a few weeks ago. Really amazing job Sam, thanks.