I agree Iran probably has a huge outbreak, as evidenced by the number of dead and by the apppearance of Iran-related infections in many other countries. However I would argue the Italian situation is much worse. In the past week Italy-related infections appeared in tens of new countries, including major untouched locations (up til now) such as Brazil, Nigeria, most of Europe (and yes, Israel). Italy is much more widely connected than Iran, with extensive tourism and business activities. Thanks to the Italy super-cluster, we are now moving into the global outbreak stage, and soon into the global pandemic stage barring some miracle.
Of course, if it had not been Italy it would have been somewhere else, it's just the luck of the draw.
I also note the 6th death out of the Diamond Princess was announced yesterday. That almost brings the death rate to 1%, in a cluster where all infections have been uncovered including the mild ones, and all patients were given early and intensive healthcare by an advanced country in uncrowded hospitals. I expect the death toll to rise further, just my gut feeling. The only caveat of these statistics is the age distribution of the passengers, but my gut feeling says that Sam's high numbers might turn out to be true after all, and cannot be ruled out just yet.
Scary.
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