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How many will die of Covid19 in the 2020s directly and indirectly

Less than 10,000
10 (14.7%)
10,000-100,000
9 (13.2%)
100,000-1,000,000
9 (13.2%)
One to ten million
13 (19.1%)
Ten to a hundred million
14 (20.6%)
Hundred million to one billion
9 (13.2%)
Over a billion
4 (5.9%)

Total Members Voted: 61

Voting closed: March 03, 2020, 12:39:52 AM

Author Topic: COVID-19  (Read 341395 times)

pileus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1600 on: February 29, 2020, 03:29:54 AM »
I think the situation is in a different state now. The main problem is no longer China. China seems to have things under control. The main problem is Iran. Iran has a massive problem and not even their central government knows the scope of it. People traveling from Iran must be quarantined.

Then there is Italy and Europe. I must assume relentless contact tracking is going on in Europe. Most cases and potential cases will be found and isolated unless the epidemic has grown out of a scale that can be mapped. Given the numbers released so far, that is unlikely.


The US has a bigger problem in its hands than it cares to admit. That one case of community infection was very likely leaked from containment. They are following droplet protection and sometimes not even that. Masks are scary. Sadly, this bug is airborne.

However, I refuse to think that the US does not have the capacity to trace and isolate cases once they appear.  So unless the trump administration actively suspended tracking of patients and just let this killer flu into the ecosystem, I think the US got this. If Trump thinks this is just flu and orchestrated the response to just let into the ecosystem as to not affect the markets, then we are truly Fd. Is he evil/stupid enough to do that? yes. But I don't think people that value their lives would let him.

Regarding the first bolded statement:  “Trump calls coronavirus a ‘hoax’ and uses it to justify border wall”  This from a rally speech in South Carolina.  Conspiracies, xenophobia and racism all wrapped into a few seconds.

Regarding the second bolded statement:  “Second coronavirus case of unknown origin confirmed in California, indicating virus is spreading in the state”

Archimid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1601 on: February 29, 2020, 04:10:11 AM »
It would be poetic if this "community spread" was merely broken containment and lax testing schedule. So much fear of immigrants and the threat was inside all along.

Anyway.

Italian hospitals face an "overcrowding crisis"

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-02-29-20-intl-hnk/index.html

Quote
Hospitals battling Italy's growing coronavirus outbreak are facing a "crisis," according to health officials in the southern European nation.

Italy now has over 820 cases, making it one of the worst hit countries in the world. Lombardy, in northern Italy, has 531 confirmed cases and a death toll of 17, the region's health secretary Giulio Gallera said Friday.

And hospitals are struggling to cope.

In China an official saying this would get sacked. In the US an official saying this would get sacked too.



I hope that the PPE shown in that image is not what that hero wears when inside a room with patients.


I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Lewis

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1602 on: February 29, 2020, 04:23:23 AM »
Israeli scientists are on the cusp of developing the first vaccine against the novel coronavirus, according to Science and Technology Minister Ofir Akunis. If all goes as planned, the vaccine could be ready within a few weeks and available in 90 days, according to a release.

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Israeli-scientists-In-three-weeks-we-will-have-coronavirus-vaccine-619101

Neven

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1603 on: February 29, 2020, 05:48:38 AM »
BTW, I'm not going to Italy next week.  :)
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Bruce Steele

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1604 on: February 29, 2020, 06:16:28 AM »
One Calif. community spread Cov-19 case in Solano County yesterday. Another Calif. community spread case in Santa Clara County today. One community spread case in a worker at an Oregon elementary school. Got sick on Feb. 19 but testing delayed results until today. Another Washington State high school student also confirmed today from community spread.

https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2020/02/coronavirus-appears-in-oregon.html

https://www.oregonlive.com/health/2020/02/2-new-coronavirus-cases-in-washington-state.html

I was suppose to cook for a large event with 600 people in two weeks. I just cancelled.



KiwiGriff

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1605 on: February 29, 2020, 06:19:06 AM »
It is a moving target .
I fully expect outbreaks are  already well  in progress in India , Indonesia and parts of Africa.
I fell sorry for the poor in the USA .
No insurance  no sick pay no choice but to keep working .
It will spread quickly in the USA once it gets a hold

Here in NZ with have our first confirmed case.
The government was busy looking to China and one came in from Iran.
The news sparked a run on shops for supply's with ques up to a km long in places.
Strangely when I went to get a bottle of multipurpose sterilizer Aka vodka from the liquor store there was no one there.
Animals can be driven crazy by placing too many in too small a pen. Homo sapiens is the only animal that voluntarily does this to himself.
Notebooks of Lazarus Long.
Robert Heinlein.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1606 on: February 29, 2020, 06:48:56 AM »
BTW, I'm not going to Italy next week.  :)

Take care, Neven.  :-[

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1607 on: February 29, 2020, 09:01:36 AM »
I once again agree with Archimid: Iran is THE problem rightnow. 34 official / 200+ unofficial dead in a young country means thousands, possibly ten thousands of cases. And they pretty much do nothing about it. It will spread throughout the Middle East. And then there is Africa. Humanity was almost able to contain this one (kudos to China). Almost.


EDIT: One more thing. Europe has cca 150 cases and 2 dead, so within the 1-2% mortality. Good. italy has 653 cases and 17 dead. Doesn't add up (eg. korea has 16 dead and 2300 cases!). This means the Italians have at least 500, more like 1000+ unreported, undetected cases.They will spread it throughout Europe as Europe does nothing about it
« Last Edit: February 29, 2020, 09:09:47 AM by El Cid »

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1608 on: February 29, 2020, 09:31:04 AM »
... Iran is THE problem ...

No, the virus is the problem.

Xenophobia and racism is also a big problem. As seen here!

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1609 on: February 29, 2020, 09:50:42 AM »
I agree Iran probably has a huge outbreak, as evidenced by the number of dead and by the apppearance of Iran-related infections in many other countries. However I would argue the Italian situation is much worse. In the past week Italy-related infections appeared in tens of new countries, including major untouched locations (up til now) such as Brazil, Nigeria, most of Europe (and yes, Israel). Italy is much more widely connected than Iran, with extensive tourism and business activities. Thanks to the Italy super-cluster, we are now moving into the global outbreak stage, and soon into the global pandemic stage barring some miracle.
Of course, if it had not been Italy it would have been somewhere else, it's just the luck of the draw.

I also note the 6th death out of the Diamond Princess was announced yesterday. That almost brings the death rate to 1%, in a cluster where all infections have been uncovered including the mild ones, and all patients were given early and intensive healthcare by an advanced country in uncrowded hospitals. I expect the death toll to rise further, just my gut feeling. The only caveat of these statistics is the age distribution of the passengers, but my gut feeling says that Sam's high numbers might turn out to be true after all, and cannot be ruled out just yet.

Scary.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1610 on: February 29, 2020, 10:07:38 AM »
Chinese data
https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia?from=groupmessage&isappinstalled=0

截至 2020-02-29 00:53 全国数据统计
数据说明

37,393 现存确诊  -2,618 较昨日
  1,418 现存疑似    +248 较昨日
  7,664 现存重症     -288 较昨日
79,394 累计确诊    +435 较昨日
  2,838 累计死亡      +47 较昨日
39,163 累计治愈 +3,006 较昨日

As of 2020-02-27 16:21 National Statistics
the data shows

37,393 Confirmed diagnoses   -2,618 since yesterday
  1,418 Suspected                    +248 since yesterday
  7,664 Existing severe              -288 since yesterday
79,394 Cumulative diagnoses   +435 since yesterday
  2,838 Cumulative deaths         +47 since yesterday
39,163 Cumulative Healing    +3,006 since yesterday

3.57% < CFR < 6.76% for this population

Johns Hopkins
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

85,406 Confirmed
   2,924 Deaths
39,558 Recovered

3.42% < CFR < 6.88% for this population

Next Strain
https://nextstrain.org/ncov
128 genomes sequenced

Japanese data
https://toyokeizai.net/sp/visual/tko/covid19/

Google Docs summary of data globally
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Z7VQ5xlf3BaTx_LBBblsW4hLoGYWnZyog3jqsS9Dbgc/htmlview?sle=true

If it wasn't clear enough already - with widespread outbreaks in several 2nd countries, and transmission to 3rd and 4th countries with unknown paths of infection - we are now in the beginning of an international pandemic. It is no longer at all likely to be contained.

Sam

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1611 on: February 29, 2020, 11:04:30 AM »
... Iran is THE problem ...

No, the virus is the problem.

Xenophobia and racism is also a big problem. As seen here!

Jesus man! Take some medication. Iran clearly has no clue what is going on, they don't have it under control and they endanger billions of people with their stupid, irresponsible behaviour. There is absolutely ZERO XENOPHOBIA in my sentences. These are facts, clear as daylight and does not matter to me whether they are Persians, Africans, or "Caucasians", if people do stupid things I will say so.

Imagining something behind the words that are clearly not their tells much more about your psyche than anything else...


EDIT: case in point:

We know from the Chinese example that quarantines work, and only the most strict quarantines work, but they work well. But Iran says:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51651454

"Among those currently in isolation is the head of Iran's taskforce on Covid-19, Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi, who declared that "quarantines belong to the Stone Age" a day before admitting that he had tested positive for the disease."
« Last Edit: February 29, 2020, 11:13:41 AM by El Cid »

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1612 on: February 29, 2020, 11:26:22 AM »
We know from the Chinese example that quarantines work, and only the most strict quarantines work, but they work well. But Iran says:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51651454

"Among those currently in isolation is the head of Iran's taskforce on Covid-19, Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi, who declared that "quarantines belong to the Stone Age" a day before admitting that he had tested positive for the disease."
I think the Swedish authorities would agree with Iran on this. Locking people up will reduce self-reporting, will drive an epidemic underground. Does anybody really trust the Chinese numbers? I would like to see the statistics of total deaths in those regions.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1613 on: February 29, 2020, 11:35:23 AM »
At this point, any single nation cannot be "the" problem. The virus is now out of control in multiple countries.

Iran is suffering their own tragedy. The Iranians now face a very difficult situation. As do we all.  Sympathy for their people (especially the people) and their plight is order rather than denigration.

The virus is spreading in Europe with little chance of containment. Ditto for parts of southeast Asia, Japan, and others. And with several cases in the United States with no defined source, the United States appears to be about to be out of control as well.

Many nations are now going to be put to the test. Some will do “well”. Some will not. Some leaders and their “experts” will believe they know what they are doing, and will be proven wrong. Some will do better. Some will no doubt think they are invulnerable. They’re citizens will suffer the consequences of the stupidity, ignorance, arrogance, or misplaced beliefs of their leaders and “experts”. Time and circumstances will tell who truly was prepared and what the best course was to have taken.

This will have serious health implications for every nation. And it will have serious financial implications as well.

The Chinese did their level best to reign in the virus. And they have dramatically reduced the spread. Unfortunately, the virus did escape containment and spread to a few dozen other nations who were and are vastly less prepared - and likely vastly less able and less willing to implement controls on the level the Chinese have.

If things progress as expected, China too is put at risk for the virus returning from outside the country further complicating their efforts at control.

The situation is likely to get very difficult and complicated from here on.

Sam
« Last Edit: February 29, 2020, 12:04:22 PM by Sam »

silkman

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1614 on: February 29, 2020, 12:05:10 PM »
EDIT: One more thing. Europe has cca 150 cases and 2 dead, so within the 1-2% mortality. Good. italy has 653 cases and 17 dead. Doesn't add up (eg. korea has 16 dead and 2300 cases!). This means the Italians have at least 500, more like 1000+ unreported, undetected cases.They will spread it throughout Europe as Europe does nothing about it

I’ve been following the situation in Singapore as I have family there including three granddaughters. I was planning to visit in early April.

Despite having complex connections with China, a majority ethnic Chinese population and living accommodation that is almost entirely based on high rise buildings with open communal spaces it has been able to control the disease - at least thus far.

As of yesterday Sing has identified a total of 98 cases, 29 of which remain hospitalised with 69 discharged. To date there have been no deaths despite a significant number of elderly patients.

It has the advantage of being a mature, benign autocracy with a healthcare system that is second to none. Contact tracing and follow up has been extremely rigorous and my family’s life seems broadly unaffected with the biggest impact on my sporty grandkids who’s competitive programmes have been cancelled.

On a small scale it demonstrates what can be done and supports the suggestion that when managed effectively the CFR is around 1%.

The US in particular should take note.

More details here:

https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19


etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1615 on: February 29, 2020, 12:19:23 PM »
These are good news, but Singapore probably has the advantage of having few access points which makes it easier to track people.
Germany might be the next problem, there seem to be only limited quaratine planned there.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1616 on: February 29, 2020, 12:43:16 PM »
Jesus man! Take some medication.

Jesus denounced racism as well.

El Cid, racism causes more harm than this virus in this world. When people fight racism, it can actually save lives.

So no, i'll not meditate it away. I'll keep pointing it out! Stop saying things like that and i'll leave you alone.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1617 on: February 29, 2020, 01:06:08 PM »
blumenkraft, do you have any idea how many people from Turkey arrived in Germany in the last few weeks ? There is a traffic of millions of tourists , students, businessman (-woman, -transgenders) that move between Iran and Turkey every year.

Alexander555

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1618 on: February 29, 2020, 01:11:49 PM »
People in Iran burn a hospital down because of corona patients from other cities. https://www.hln.be/nieuws/buitenland/ziekenhuis-in-iran-in-brand-gestoken-uit-vrees-voor-coronavirus~a54525c4/

colchonero

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1619 on: February 29, 2020, 01:14:35 PM »
So (doesn't matter which country) can do almost nothing necessary to stop epidemic/pandemic that can affect Cid personally (or everyone here) or our families in the future, and everyone sees problem with that behaviour and "solutions" or lack of, but you can not call them out or it becomes racist? Hahahaha come on man. It's like if you call Trump  out on this, because you think he is irresponsible(and you have an opinion or fear that it will spread all over the place if we are not cautious), and someone calls you racist(or whatever)just because of that. That's not racism or hate toward some country or person. Iran's answer so far is no better, and it would be stupid and dishonest not to point out, that there can be a problem because of that especially if it could affect all of us.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1620 on: February 29, 2020, 01:17:55 PM »
Remember when Vox shared this 'news' that China banned the WHO from entering the country and i pointed out that it's fake news and propaganda? And then i got attacked and called illiterate?

Well, here is proof they have been there, after all, confirming it was indeed just that: Cable news propaganda.

China actually requested an assessment from those WHO and Robert Koch Institut experts.

Link >> https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf



You burned your great reputation defending a shitty source, Vox.

El Cid

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1621 on: February 29, 2020, 01:36:29 PM »
So (doesn't matter which country) can do almost nothing necessary to stop epidemic/pandemic that can affect Cid personally (or everyone here) or our families in the future, and everyone sees problem with that behaviour and "solutions" or lack of, but you can not call them out or it becomes racist? Hahahaha come on man.

Exactly. This agressive, nonsense behaviour is why the noble idea of liberalism has become a tragicomedy of itself in many countries unfortunately (especially Western Europe). I have never been a racist, and never, ever been called one until now. (but i remember the same happened to Archimid a few days ago for no reasons at all as well). I will not continue this, sorry for the OT, but I am seriously pissed by this nonsense.

Anyway (thanks for pointing this out silkman, I used the Sing example the past few days many times) the difference between Iran and Singapore is extremely stark. The last I read there were cca 100 confirmed cases in Singapore but 2000 people were quarantined due to very rigorous tracking. That is how you can stop this thing in the bud. later it is impossible

 Alas, the mistakes of some countries be they black, white, yellow, green, blue or whatever caused this to become a pandemic, and yes, Sam has an important point: whatever China does (and they did almost all they could other than the first 2-3 weeks) they will import this infection back from 2nd/3rd etc countries. So the battle is most likely already lost for them as well despite their current success. Millions will die due  to bad luck and  stupid, irresponsible decisions by some.

pileus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1622 on: February 29, 2020, 01:47:30 PM »
This is a very informative and extremely timely read from the author of “The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History.”  I am certainly going to pick up this book.

Although the article is from 2017, it could have been written yesterday with respect to what is transpiring in the US relative to communication and emerging failures of leadership (the least shocking development of all, however).

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/journal-plague-year-180965222/

Quote
What proved even more deadly was the government policy toward the truth.

Quote
Against this background, while influenza bled into American life, public health officials, determined to keep morale up, began to lie.

Quote
Across the country, public officials were lying. U.S. Surgeon General Rupert Blue said, “There is no cause for alarm if precautions are observed.”

Quote
People could believe nothing they were being told, so they feared everything, particularly the unknown. How long would it last? How many would it kill? Who would it kill? With the truth buried, morale collapsed. Society itself began to disintegrate.

Near the end of the article, the author John Barry adds this:

Quote
That is why, in my view, the most important lesson from 1918 is to tell the truth. Though that idea is incorporated into every preparedness plan I know of, its actual implementation will depend on the character and leadership of the people in charge when a crisis erupts.

The US is in for a rough ride.  I mostly liken this to an “own goal,” as it’s largely self-inflicted.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1623 on: February 29, 2020, 01:52:31 PM »
El Cid, the sentence "Iran is THE problem" is inherently racist. Sorry to step on your toe with this, but you can't discuss this fact away.

If your intention is not to be racist, i respect and honor that.

Heck, i might say something racist sometimes, and then i want you (or anyone else) to tell me. We are all born racist. And if we want to overcome this, we have to remind ourselves of that!

It's not nonsense, it's called being aware.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1624 on: February 29, 2020, 01:54:16 PM »
Quote
Sam has an important point: whatever China does (and they did almost all they could other than the first 2-3 weeks) they will import this infection back from 2nd/3rd etc countries. So the battle is most likely already lost for them as well despite their current success.

This has already happened, a Chinese recently returned from Iran with the virus. I read it somewhere.

I wouldn't be surprised if at some point China will close its borders to protect from outside reinfection. An ironic twist of fate. This of course assuming they manage to get it completely under control, which sounds almost impossible, but maybe with enough persistence and surveiilance and dictatorial powers, who knows?

SteveMDFP

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1625 on: February 29, 2020, 02:16:28 PM »
...
However, I refuse to think that the US does not have the capacity to trace and isolate cases once they appear.  So unless the trump administration actively suspended tracking of patients and just let this killer flu into the ecosystem, I think the US got this. If Trump thinks this is just flu and orchestrated the response to just let into the ecosystem as to not affect the markets, then we are truly Fd. Is he evil/stupid enough to do that? yes. But I don't think people that value their lives would let him.

State-level responses in the US will be good in many cases, poor in others.  The Federal level response has been anemic to date, except for promptly making military bases available for quarantine.  Rolling out testing capacity has been a fustercluck.  Fauci at NIH is a great communicator for guiding a national response, but he's been muzzled.  The CDC badly stumbled on basics when Ebola came to these shores, and it's stumbling badly now.

The CDC has had weeks to get testing capacity ramped up, and it's shown an inability to act boldly and quickly.

There's no indication that any agency is acting to mass produce antiviral medications that have shown efficacy in China.  There's talk of starting up a clinical trial that will take months to complete, for a patented investigational drug.  Moronic.  Exponential spread will make that timeline nearly useless.  They're planning to build a barn door as the cow is walking out of sight.

With contact tracing and standard quarantine rapidly becoming useless, the next major strategy  to use is for everyone to stay home, if they don't have a compelling need to go out.  The US doesn't have the necessary safety nets to allow very many people to stay home.

People simply staying home means an instant economic recession.  Sadly, our Dear Leader fears a bad economy more than he fears a million deaths.  Things will not go well here in the US.

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1626 on: February 29, 2020, 02:27:39 PM »
Finland - third case observed, the first was a Chinese tourist and two later ones are Finnish tourists who came back from northern Italy.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1627 on: February 29, 2020, 02:29:55 PM »
BTW, I'm not going to Italy next week.  :)

...good decision...by the way...what was wrong with this site yesterday?

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1628 on: February 29, 2020, 02:32:35 PM »
... Iran is THE problem ...

No, the virus is the problem.

Xenophobia and racism is also a big problem. As seen here!

Thank you for this.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1629 on: February 29, 2020, 02:41:35 PM »
I also note the 6th death out of the Diamond Princess was announced yesterday. That almost brings the death rate to 1%, in a cluster where all infections have been uncovered including the mild ones, and all patients were given early and intensive healthcare by an advanced country in uncrowded hospitals. I expect the death toll to rise further, just my gut feeling. The only caveat of these statistics is the age distribution of the passengers...

I have been arguing for at least 2 weeks that the Diamond Princess is the single best data source to allow us to get a handle on the mortality of this disease. I still feel this is the case. Once diagnosed, these patients have received the best care available. The CFR from this controlled experiment group should be considered the lower bound for this disease. We are already at 0.8%. This is not good news. If it is 2% or higher, this pandemic could kill well over 30 million if 20% of the population contracts the disease.

Does anyone know how many Diamond Princess patients are still serious cases? Would give us some insight into how many more deaths we might expect.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1630 on: February 29, 2020, 02:47:30 PM »


If it wasn't clear enough already - with widespread outbreaks in several 2nd countries, and transmission to 3rd and 4th countries with unknown paths of infection - we are now in the beginning of an international pandemic. It is no longer at all likely to be contained.

Sam

There were epidemiologists who were saying this 2 weeks ago although they were getting push back. They were correct, of course, and it is just becoming more obvious.

pileus

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1631 on: February 29, 2020, 02:49:42 PM »
Cruise passenger cohorts tend to skew older, so that could have an upward influence on the mortality rate for the Diamond Princess.

But that also highlights what has been one of my primary concerns for the US, in the state of Florida and other communities with a high proportion of 70+ residents.

I’m keeping an eye on The Villages, which is one of the if not the largest retirement age communities in the world.  They’ve had past issues with rampant STD spread, and mix that history with the high proportion of MAGA supporters (apt to dismiss this as a hoax and accept what the cult leader says), and it’s trouble ahead.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1632 on: February 29, 2020, 02:57:00 PM »
We know from the Chinese example that quarantines work, and only the most strict quarantines work, but they work well. But Iran says:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51651454

"Among those currently in isolation is the head of Iran's taskforce on Covid-19, Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi, who declared that "quarantines belong to the Stone Age" a day before admitting that he had tested positive for the disease."
I think the Swedish authorities would agree with Iran on this. Locking people up will reduce self-reporting, will drive an epidemic underground. Does anybody really trust the Chinese numbers? I would like to see the statistics of total deaths in those regions.

The draconian quarantine in China has slowed the spread as you would expect. It has not stopped the spread and I would think there are at least 5 times as many infected in China as the official reported totals. This is not because they are hiding numbers. It is because widespread community transmission is still occurring and they are unable to test everyone who is showing symptoms. China is doing an amazing job that cannot be duplicated in many other countries.

Once the quarantine approach had failed and that was obvious more than a month ago, epidemiologists were arguing that we needed to transition quickly to care. This is clearly the case now. Isolating patients is still a sound approach but it will merely slow the spread, not halt it. No country will have the means to isolate all patients in a hospital setting. Every country should now be telling their citizens what they should be doing to prevent spread between family members and the surrounding community and this will require informed social isolation.


Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1633 on: February 29, 2020, 03:02:19 PM »
EDIT: One more thing. Europe has cca 150 cases and 2 dead, so within the 1-2% mortality. Good. italy has 653 cases and 17 dead. Doesn't add up (eg. korea has 16 dead and 2300 cases!). This means the Italians have at least 500, more like 1000+ unreported, undetected cases.They will spread it throughout Europe as Europe does nothing about it

I’ve been following the situation in Singapore as I have family there including three granddaughters. I was planning to visit in early April.

Despite having complex connections with China, a majority ethnic Chinese population and living accommodation that is almost entirely based on high rise buildings with open communal spaces it has been able to control the disease - at least thus far.

As of yesterday Sing has identified a total of 98 cases, 29 of which remain hospitalised with 69 discharged. To date there have been no deaths despite a significant number of elderly patients.

It has the advantage of being a mature, benign autocracy with a healthcare system that is second to none. Contact tracing and follow up has been extremely rigorous and my family’s life seems broadly unaffected with the biggest impact on my sporty grandkids who’s competitive programmes have been cancelled.

On a small scale it demonstrates what can be done and supports the suggestion that when managed effectively the CFR is around 1%.

The US in particular should take note.

More details here:

https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19

Singapore is uniquely situated to combat this disease, a tiny nation with easily controllable borders and as wealthy as any on the planet. You cannot expect any country to be able to do what Singapore can do.

And when you have idiots in charge like in my country (the U.S.) the prognosis is not good.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1634 on: February 29, 2020, 03:05:04 PM »
Remember when Vox shared this 'news' that China banned the WHO from entering the country and i pointed out that it's fake news and propaganda? And then i got attacked and called illiterate?

Well, here is proof they have been there, after all, confirming it was indeed just that: Cable news propaganda.

China actually requested an assessment from those WHO and Robert Koch Institut experts.

Link >> https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf



You burned your great reputation defending a shitty source, Vox.

No large countries will be able to duplicate the heroic efforts China took to contain this virus and people here who questioned or blasted their efforts need to consider the biases that caused them to draw such a conclusion in the absence of clear evidence this was the case.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1635 on: February 29, 2020, 03:08:36 PM »
Quote
Sam has an important point: whatever China does (and they did almost all they could other than the first 2-3 weeks) they will import this infection back from 2nd/3rd etc countries. So the battle is most likely already lost for them as well despite their current success.

This has already happened, a Chinese recently returned from Iran with the virus. I read it somewhere.

I wouldn't be surprised if at some point China will close its borders to protect from outside reinfection. An ironic twist of fate. This of course assuming they manage to get it completely under control, which sounds almost impossible, but maybe with enough persistence and surveiilance and dictatorial powers, who knows?


I really don't think there is any point in completely closing their borders and reinfection is not the problem. They have hundreds of thousand of unidentified cases IMHO and the disease is still spreading although more slowly as a result of their efforts to control it. This is the best that can be hoped for. By slowing the spread, you can reduce the impact on health resources that would result from an uncontrolled spread.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1636 on: February 29, 2020, 03:22:00 PM »
As of February 25, the U.S. had tested 454 people for COVID-19. Fucking ridiculous! Meanwhile, isolated, untraceable cases are popping up on the west coast.

How does U.S. testing compare with other countries?

Not well. While the U.S. has tested less than 500 cases, U.K. health officials have conducted more than 7,100 coronavirus tests as of Wednesday, confirming 13 positive cases, and U.K. authorities have announced aggressive plans to test thousands more, including drive-thru coronavirus testing. South Korea, which is battling the largest known outbreak outside of China, already has drive-thru testing in place and the country’s health officials have already conducted more than 30,000 coronavirus tests — mostly within the last week. And just one province in Canada, Ontario, has already conducted more tests (629) than in the entire U.S.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/02/why-has-the-us-cdc-done-so-little-coronavirus-testing.html

We will be Iran or Italy within 3 weeks is my guess. Trump will blame China, Italy, Iran, anybody but himself.

It will be interesting to see how those here who have criticized Iran or China react to the incompetence in the U.S. Any here who who blame Iran or Italy will be placed on my ignore list.

« Last Edit: February 29, 2020, 03:54:34 PM by Shared Humanity »

Pmt111500

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1637 on: February 29, 2020, 03:47:07 PM »
As of February, the U.S. had tested 454 people for COVID-19. Fucking ridiculous! Meanwhile, isolated, untraceable cases are popping up on the west coast. We will be Iran or Italy within 3 weeks is my guess.

Trump will blame Obama.

Just read of the Oregon case and starting to be of the same opinion that humanity has now a new influenza-type pandemic disease. Pretty slim chances anymore to keep it contained. Waiting reports of more untraceable cases from southern France, Southeastern Europe, California or elsewhere in US.

oren

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1638 on: February 29, 2020, 04:01:56 PM »
Where is the esteemed Vox_Mundi anyway? I may have to access the news sources mysef if this goes on too long...

pietkuip

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1639 on: February 29, 2020, 04:17:35 PM »
My local newspaper reports about a family in Växjö (Southern Sweden) that returned from a skiing vacation in Northern Italy with the flu. But they are denied a covid test, because they had not visited one of the four regions mentioned in the national protocol of the Swedish health authority.

Meanwhile, the UK is testing thousands...

I would feel better if they tested that family.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1640 on: February 29, 2020, 04:40:00 PM »
My local newspaper reports about a family in Växjö (Southern Sweden) that returned from a skiing vacation in Northern Italy with the flu. But they are denied a covid test, because they had not visited one of the four regions mentioned in the national protocol of the Swedish health authority.

Meanwhile, the UK is testing thousands...

I would feel better if they tested that family.

Quite soon - testing will a) become irrelevant, b) be overwhelmed as the number of cases vastly exceeds any testing capability. Additionally, there are now many different tests. Most or all of these are showing problems in efficacy. Multiple false negatives often proceed a positive test on a patient exhibiting symptoms. As a result, though it might be nice to have confirmation, we are now reaching the point that testing is irrelevant and symptomatic identification will become the rule. If your symptoms match the pattern, you have the disease. That will introduces errors and mistakes. Those will vanish into the sea of sick and dying.

Welcome to pandemic.

Medical systems will rapidly be overwhelmed. Some, if not most will begin turning away even the sickest patients. People will react differently in different places. That won’t make sense. Neither will their actions or reactions. Fear does that.

One would hope for rational approaches to dominate. In some places they will. Leadership, charisma and force of Will will drive all sorts of responses. Some of those will be sensical. Some won’t. Truth will prevail in some places. Truth will be subsumed into a desire to paint a happy face on the problem in others. Some places will put economic production above safety and health. They will have worse outcomes. Those won’t correct or change the decisions that caused that. They will reinforce stupid decisions instead.

We have seen all of this before. Now we will see it again. This is human nature on display. 

As with so many plagues and pandemics before, mutation is likely. Some variants will be benign. Some will be especially deadly. These may return in waves as happened in 1918, or with the Black Death, or .... The disease and it’s siblings will be with us for a time, and then it will pass.

In the end it will be counted most by the grave markers all with the same year(s) of death.

Sam

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1641 on: February 29, 2020, 04:40:36 PM »
I also note the 6th death out of the Diamond Princess was announced yesterday. That almost brings the death rate to 1%, in a cluster where all infections have been uncovered including the mild ones, and all patients were given early and intensive healthcare by an advanced country in uncrowded hospitals. I expect the death toll to rise further, just my gut feeling. The only caveat of these statistics is the age distribution of the passengers...

I have been arguing for at least 2 weeks that the Diamond Princess is the single best data source to allow us to get a handle on the mortality of this disease. I still feel this is the case. Once diagnosed, these patients have received the best care available. The CFR from this controlled experiment group should be considered the lower bound for this disease. We are already at 0.8%. This is not good news. If it is 2% or higher, this pandemic could kill well over 30 million if 20% of the population contracts the disease.

Does anyone know how many Diamond Princess patients are still serious cases? Would give us some insight into how many more deaths we might expect.

Something we should not forget, is that the mortality rate will be higher if things get out of control. The people on the ship all get medical care. The people in Wuhan that had to go home, they don't get medical care. The global mortality rate stands at 3,3 % right now. Something like 85 000 people infected, and just below 3000 fatalities.

bluice

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1642 on: February 29, 2020, 04:47:05 PM »
Italians suspect the virus has been there for weeks without being detected

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/28/coronavirus-may-have-been-in-italy-for-weeks-before-it-was-detected

Meanwhile the Koreans have started to test people in large numbers finding hundreds of confirmed cases. I’m pretty sure there are huge amount of unconfirmed cases around the world.

Chinese quarantines seem to work but I’m afraid the epidemic restarts to spread when people go back to work. Such extensive measures can only be executed for so long, or people and business will go bankrupt.

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1643 on: February 29, 2020, 05:03:37 PM »
Coronavirus czar Mike Pence has met with leading medical experts today to learn the scale of the task with which he has been entrusted.

“The experts have informed me it is critical we understand the origins of this deadly disease which is why I have created a task force to identify for which sin Coronavirus is punishment.”

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1644 on: February 29, 2020, 05:06:39 PM »
This is satire, isn't it, Shared Humanity?

Please say yes! Please!

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1645 on: February 29, 2020, 05:13:59 PM »
Just got mail from mailroute.net, reminding me to also keep internet hygiene!

Malware in a Coronavirus "PSA"
Beware of increased threats at this time and don't click suspicious links
.

The attempt looked like this:




etienne

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1646 on: February 29, 2020, 05:21:51 PM »
...
Quite soon - testing will a) become irrelevant, b) be overwhelmed as the number of cases vastly exceeds any testing capability. Additionally, there are now many different tests. Most or all of these are showing problems in efficacy. Multiple false negatives often proceed a positive test on a patient exhibiting symptoms. As a result, though it might be nice to have confirmation, we are now reaching the point that testing is irrelevant and symptomatic identification will become the rule. If your symptoms match the pattern, you have the disease. That will introduces errors and mistakes. Those will vanish into the sea of sick and dying.
...

I already lived that like 8 or 10 years ago for one of the flu that used to scare the world. I think it was the swine flu.

It was very surprising, it took like one week between the first case that had to be isolated in an hospital, and the time I went with a kid to the pediatric doctor. I asked if that specific flu had to be tested, and the answer was "it's not needed anymore". We were all 4 sick and got healthy again, but it was a flu with a normal mortality, so that was not an issue.

For sure we had a very hard time, two kids under 5 sick and us as well. My sister in law went shopping for us and left everything in front of the door, but nobody was cleaning the house during a week.

The problem here is that immunity doesn't seem to be guarantied after the sickness, and people seem to be sick more than one week. Now we're happy that the kids are 13 and 14, that teenagers don't seem to suffer too much, so preparation for us should be an express cooking training, but they don't really see it that way, maybe we'll have to eat scrambled eggs during 2-3 weeks. 

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1647 on: February 29, 2020, 05:22:41 PM »
It seems reasonable to assume that high death counts may be due to the longevity of unreported infections whether in Italy or the Diamond Princess.
We're in the early stage of a pandemic and, while China has demonstrated a path forward, it's not a path that many other nations can or will follow.
I'm very glad to hear that Neven is avoiding travel & that Bruce opted out of his 600 person dinner.


I don't feel that 14 days of isolation is sufficient so I plan to avoid much contact with anyone for the foreseeable future. I think that Canada is better prepared than most both with healthcare and with temperament, but our major trading partners are China and the US.


Remembering those that could be infected due to our negligence may serve as motivation for some. It's not just yourself and your family, it could be entire neighborhoods that survive based on your actions.
Terry

Shared Humanity

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1648 on: February 29, 2020, 05:28:32 PM »
This is satire, isn't it, Shared Humanity?

Please say yes! Please!

Yes...a little gallows humor.

blumenkraft

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Re: COVID-19
« Reply #1649 on: February 29, 2020, 05:39:52 PM »
I'm glad, SH.  ;D

You really can't tell anymore these days...